Trump announced the $8 billion USDA "Harvest Fuel Relief" program on Monday, Oct. 19, at a Kansas rally for Roger Marshall (Sen-R Kansas). Payments are set by modeled crop losses, not fuel actually bought, so "some of them might be overpaid, others may be underpaid," Michigan State economist David Ortega told the Washington Examiner. USDA releases rates in November; Politico and Reason expect checks late November or early December at the earliest, after the Nov. 3 vote. Three Trump officials told Politico the USDA account lacks the money unless Congress approves it or funds are moved.
Cook moved the Kansas Senate race to toss-up on Oct. 7. An InsiderAdvantage poll taken Oct. 9–10 had Democrat Adam Hamilton at 47.5% and Marshall at 46.7%, inside its margin of error.
The real numbers
- The American Farm Bureau projects farm fuel costs at $22 billion in 2026, up 29% from 2025, or about $4.9 billion more (Reason).
- AAA's national diesel average is $6.31 a gallon (Washington Examiner), up $2.70 from a year ago (Reason). EIA's weekly average peaked at $6.53 in the week of Sept. 21.
- Farmers, truckers and builders have spent an extra $55 billion on diesel since March 1, per GasBuddy (Washington Examiner).