Political Guyentist
← 2026-09-082us

[UPDATE] A far-right party won a German state election outright for the first time, taking 43.8%

Alternative for Germany more than doubled its 2021 vote in Saxony-Anhalt. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's party fell to 17.2% and lost a state it had run for 24 years; he says he will not resign.

What this was. Saxony-Anhalt, one of Germany's 16 states, elected its legislature on Sunday, Sept. 6. Think a US governor's race, not a national one. Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern vote next, on Sept. 20. Who won. Alternative for Germany — AfD — is a far-right, anti-immigration party that every other German party refuses to govern with. It took 43.8%: its best result in any state in its history, and more than double the 21.5% it won here in 2021. The catch. It holds 39 of the 83 seats. That is three short of a majority, so it still needs a partner nobody has offered. Merz. Chancellor Friedrich Merz runs the national government. His Christian Democrats took 17.2%, down from 37.1%, and lost a state they had run for 24 years. He called it their worst defeat in decades on Monday, Sept. 7, and said he will not step down. The reaction. AfD's lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, thanked Elon Musk on the night of the result. Trump posted the exit poll; a Kremlin envoy praised the outcome. "We must reclaim our old, safe, beautiful Germany. We proved that yesterday." — Ulrich Siegmund (AfD)

PREVIOUSLY

Going into the vote on Sunday, Sept. 6, polls already put AfD first in Saxony-Anhalt, and every other party had ruled out governing with it. Preliminary counts that night gave the party 44.6% and Merz's CDU 16.9%. The official result on Monday, Sept. 7, settled slightly lower, at 43.8% and 17.2%, and cost the CDU a state it had run for 24 years. AfD's previous best anywhere was 32.8% in Thuringia in September 2024.

What a German state government can actually do:

  • Schools, culture, policing and public broadcasting are state powers; migration and deportation law are set in Berlin and Brussels.
  • AfD's state manifesto includes separate classes for asylum-seekers' children, a rainbow-flag ban and wider home-schooling rights.
  • Siegmund has floated pulling Saxony-Anhalt out of regional broadcaster MDR, which would require inter-state treaty procedures.
  • AfD took just over 20% in the 2025 federal election, less than half its Saxony-Anhalt share.

SEMI-RELATED

Traders put Merz leaving the chancellorship before 2027 at 14.5%

No contract prices whether AfD forms a Saxony-Anhalt government; the closest markets bet only on Merz's own tenure.

![[UPDATE] A far-right party won a German state election outright for the first time, taking 43.8% chart](/charts/2026-09-08-afd-wins-43-8-in-saxony-anhalt-taking-39-of-83-seats-three-short-of-a-majority-m.svg "Data: POLI")