Political Guyentist

People hold candles outdoors at night, with two seated women illuminated in the foreground, one covering her mouth. — NBC News

1usUpdate

Bend, Oregon, school shooter who killed three children and a teacher was a 16-year-old ex-student using a shotgun his mother reportedly bought

A father of two Silver Rail students, Kaylub Giamanco, followed him into the building and shot him dead.

A gunman killed three children and an adult at Silver Rail Elementary in Bend, Oregon, on Thursday, Oct. 15. The first 911 call came at 12:59 p.m., officers arrived at 1:02 and the shooter was down shortly after, but police had not said who killed him.

ContextBend's is the 36th shooting on K–12 school grounds this year, per a CNN analysis. Oregon's safe-storage law reaches the mother only if the shotgun got to her son because it was left unlocked. Even then the maximum is a $2,000 fine with no jail time. Prosecutors elsewhere have used homicide law instead. In Michigan, the parents of the 2021 Oxford High School shooter, who bought him the gun, were convicted of involuntary manslaughter in 2024 and are serving 10-year sentences. In Georgia, Colin Gray, who gave his 14-year-old son the rifle used at Apalachee High School in 2024, was convicted of second-degree murder in March and sentenced to 15 years in July, per CNN.

NBC NEWS12 sources

2usUpdateRussia diesel deal

EU leaders say they 'regret' Trump's lifting of Russian diesel sanctions; Trump calls Zelensky 'not a good guy'

The Friday, Oct. 16 summit text also welcomed €6.6 billion in EU military aid that member states agreed to release on Sept. 25.

- Oct. 9 — Trump struck a deal to bring in Russian diesel and said Ukraine needs “a new president.” A U.S. official told Axios the deal came after Zelensky ignored “half a dozen” U.S. requests to stop hitting Russian refineries. - Oct. 11 — Trump announced an immediate refinery-only energy ceasefire; Moscow never confirmed it, and Ukraine paused energy strikes for three days. - Oct. 15 — Ukraine hit a Russian refinery, saying Russia never stopped its attacks and accusing Washington of cutting intelligence and throttling Starlink.

ContextThe €6.6 billion had been stuck since spring 2023, when Hungary's government under Viktor Orbán blocked it. Trump's Oct. 11 truce follows earlier energy pauses that broke down or never took hold. ACLED, a conflict monitor, recorded energy strikes during the 30-day pause of March 2025. A January 2026 pause lasted nearly three days against the week Trump announced, and Russia never confirmed a September 2026 announcement. Ukraine's refinery strikes have set off a fuel crisis in Russia, per NBC News.

NBC NEWS17 sources

3uscontested

Trump waives the Russian energy tariffs and sanctions required by the Graham law he signed last month

Bloomberg reports the penalties were blocking his push to bring down diesel prices before the Nov. 3 midterms.

The penalties are mandatory, but the law itself lets the president waive them: under Section 115, he needs only to certify in writing to Congress that a waiver serves U.S. national interests, no vote is needed, and the waiver never expires. Section 117's 30-day vote to block covers only ending the law, not waivers. A separate Oct. 9 Treasury license already lets Russian diesel in through April 7, 2027.

ContextThe penalties are mandatory, but the law itself lets the president waive them: under Section 115, he needs only to certify in writing to Congress that a waiver serves U.S. national interests, no vote is needed, and the waiver never expires. Section 117's 30-day vote to block covers only ending the law, not waivers. A separate Oct. 9 Treasury license already lets Russian diesel in through April 7, 2027.

BLOOMBERG4 sources

4usFuel prices

Brent crude touches $110 a barrel, its first time there since May 20, after Saudi-led forces intercept missiles aimed at energy hubs

U.S. crude settled at $101.41 a barrel, its highest close since Sept. 17, per Reuters.

Brent started 2026 near $61 and closed at $72.48 on Feb. 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel struck Iran, per the EIA and Euronews. It passed $100 on March 12 as tankers stopped crossing the Strait of Hormuz, and peaked near $120 in the spring, per CNBC. A ceasefire and the mid-June deal to reopen the strait brought it back to about its pre-war price by late June, The New York Times reported. The $109.86 settlement on Friday, Oct. 16, is about 52% above that pre-war close and nearly 80% above a year earlier, per Trading Economics.

ContextBrent started 2026 near $61 and closed at $72.48 on Feb. 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel struck Iran, per the EIA and Euronews. It passed $100 on March 12 as tankers stopped crossing the Strait of Hormuz, and peaked near $120 in the spring, per CNBC. A ceasefire and the mid-June deal to reopen the strait brought it back to about its pre-war price by late June, The New York Times reported. The $109.86 settlement on Friday, Oct. 16, is about 52% above that pre-war close and nearly 80% above a year earlier, per Trading Economics.

FINANCIAL TIMES11 sources

5us

Treasury reports a $1.99 trillion federal deficit for fiscal 2026, the largest since fiscal 2021

Treasury puts the gap at an estimated 6.2% of the economy, up from 5.8% in fiscal 2025.

Where the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) says the $386 billion in new spending went: Net interest on the debt: +$115 billion Social Security: +$86 billion Medicare: +$77 billion Medicaid: +$55 billion Defense: +$48 billion

ContextRevenue lagged for two policy reasons. Corporate taxes fell $70 billion after the 2025 tax law's bigger investment write-offs, per CBO. And Treasury paid $145 billion in tariff refunds after the Supreme Court struck down much of Trump's first-year tariffs, Reuters reported. By CBO's preliminary figures, net interest took about 21 cents of each revenue dollar, against 11 cents in fiscal 2019. In dollars this is the third-largest deficit on record, behind fiscal 2020 and 2021, per Reuters and CBO. In February CBO had projected $1.9 trillion. Debt held by the public reached $32.4 trillion, about 100% of GDP, per CBO, and CBO projects it will pass the 1946 record of 106% in 2030, reaching 108%.

REUTERS8 sources