[UPDATE] Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declines to preview Oct. 27-28 meeting; rate hike odds fall to 28%

Markets now lean toward a hold despite a hot September inflation report.

Warsh said the economy has "broadly conformed" to expectations since September's hike and said "I don't prejudge meetings," pushing CME FedWatch odds of an October hike down to 28%, against 22% before the inflation report.

PREVIOUSLY

Sep. 14 — The 10-year Treasury yield topped 5% for the first time since October 2023 as Brent crude hit $108.50.
Sep. 16 — The Fed raised its rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first hike since July 2023. Trump demanded rates of "1%, or less."
Sep. 22–24 — Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee warned that beating inflation would be "painful." Fed Governor Michael Barr said more hikes were likely.
Oct. 1–4 — August PCE inflation came in at 3.4%, under the 3.7% forecast. Weak jobs data then cut bets on an October hike.
Oct. 8 — Fed minutes showed 16 of 18 officials expected at least one more hike this year.
Oct. 9 — The White House set a closed Nov. 5 hearing, run by a committee of Trump appointees, on whether there is "cause" to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
Oct. 14–15 — September consumer prices rose 3.7% and producer prices rose 6.3%.

Rate hike odds this week (CME FedWatch):

Before the Oct. 14 CPI report: 22% (Axios; economist Justin Wolfers)
After it: 50% per Axios, 44% per Wolfers, readings taken at different times
Warsh called the AI investment boom "probably the most important thing" lifting the global economy (Axios)