95%House
Silver Bulletin modelNov. 2, evening, per Axios
01 / The ballotsCalifornia
The Supreme Court denies DOJ’s request to make California set aside any mail ballots from about 20,000 people on a federal suspected-noncitizen list.
The order, issued Monday, Nov. 2, is one unsigned sentence with no explanation and no noted dissents. The court acted within hours and did not ask California to respond.
Separately, Chief U.S. District Judge James Boasberg barred DOJ and DHS from demanding that officials set the ballots aside, finding a likely violation of the Elections Clause (the Constitution’s grant of election rules to states and Congress).
The listThe 20,000 are names on a DOJ list of suspected noncitizen voters, not a count of ballots cast. An expert Boasberg found credible identified at least 22 members of the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights, all known U.S. citizens, wrongly on the list.
“Once California commingles the challenged ballots with lawful ones, there is no way to get the challenged ballots back.”Solicitor General D. John Sauer, for DOJ
Read the reporting
02 / The forecastsHouse and Senate
Final forecasts favor Democrats to win the House and Senate; Nate Silver’s model gives them 95% and 80%.
The final forecasts, polls and betting odds all lean toward Democrats. None of them is a result. Silver’s model runs 40,000 simulations, so 80% means Democrats fall short of a Senate majority in about one run in five.
The final probabilities for Democrats
80%Senate
Silver Bulletin modelNov. 2, evening, per Axios
64%Senate
Decision Desk HQ modelNov. 2, morning, per The Hill
73%Both chambers
Kalshi, a betting marketNov. 2, evening, per Axios
Meters run from 0 to 100%; the tick marks 50%.
MichiganEl-Sayed 53, Rogers 42
TexasTalarico 50, Paxton 43
MaineJackson 51, Collins 45
KansasHamilton 49, Marshall 44
OhioBrown 49, Husted 44
AlaskaPeltola 48, Sullivan 46
IowaTurek 48, Hinson 47
Bars from zero. Four of the seven leads are 5 points or less. Margins of error run from 3.4 points in Texas to 5.0 in Alaska.
Polls can missFinal polls overstated Democrats by 2.7 points in 2024 and 4.6 in 2020, per AAPOR, the pollsters’ professional group. Kalshi gave Flávio Bolsonaro an 84% chance before President Lula won Brazil’s Oct. 25 runoff.
Read the reporting
03 / The monitorsEvery state
DOJ plans 1,000 Election Day poll monitors, up from 714 in 2024, and the NAACP asks a judge to bar federal law enforcement personnel.
In an Oct. 28 sworn statement, Eric Neff, who leads DOJ’s Voting Section, said this year’s monitors come from ATF, the DEA and the Bureau of Prisons, plus one Customs and Border Protection employee. He said no FBI or ICE employees will serve and the monitors may not carry guns.
2012More than 780 including observers, per a DOJ release
2022289 midterms, per a DOJ official
2024714 mostly DOJ lawyers and staff
20261,000 planned, across every state
Bars from zero. 2012’s fades because 780 is a floor; 2026’s is hollow because it is a plan.
U.S. District Judge Reggie Walton says he is “struggling” with the NAACP’s request and warned of “hell to pay” if DOJ misstated the monitors’ role.
If a federal monitor interferes
- Poll official
- Tell the person running the site and ask them to call the county election office.
- Threats or violence
- Call 911. DOJ’s own guidance says to contact local police first.
- Election Protection
- Call or text 866-687-8683 for help that does not run through DOJ.
Read the reporting
04 / The night50 states and D.C.
Indiana and Kentucky post the first results in the 6 p.m. ET hour, and Alaska’s last polls close at 1 a.m. ET.
The map shows when all of a state’s polls have closed, the earliest point a statewide race can be called. First results are not calls.
MEAKVTNHWAIDMTNDMNILWIMINYRIMAORNVWYSDIAINOHPANJCTCAUTCONEMOKYWVVAMDDEAZNMKSARTNNCSCDCOKLAMSALGAHITXFL
States and D.C. with every poll closed
6926274245495051
Each square is a state or D.C., placed roughly where it sits on the map; not to scale. Arizona holds its results for an hour after it closes. In Alaska, most polls close at midnight.
The AP looks mainly at the vote count when it calls a race. “When we see and we are certain that the trailing candidate can’t catch up, that’s when we declare a winner,” said the AP’s David Scott. In this year’s primaries the AP called more than 11,000 races and made three mistakes.
Read the reporting
05 / The straitStrait of Hormuz
Iran says it can reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if the U.S. lifts sanctions and its port blockade, and the U.S. strikes Iran’s Qeshm Island.
U.S. officials called the strike on Monday, Nov. 2, limited and defensive, not a return to major combat. One told NBC it hit a missile launcher after Iran again tried to target a U.S. aircraft.
Iran’s demands include lifting sanctions, ending the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and releasing frozen assets. Trump told Axios: “One way or the other, we will do something, but there is no rush. We crippled them financially.”
84.8 a day before shipping was disrupted
9.3 a day, Oct. 26 to Nov. 1
One mark per crossing a day, counting only ships with tracking on.
Two daysIn June, Reuters’ estimate for mine work and shipper confidence was 40 to 50 days.
Read the reporting
07 / The emails · Long readWashington
The IRS and Social Security sent mass emails praising Trump days before the Nov. 3 election.
The IRS sent its email Thursday, Oct. 29, and Social Security sent its email Friday, Oct. 30, and Saturday, Oct. 31. Two law professors told The New York Times the messages may violate the Hatch Act, the law barring federal officials from using their authority to affect elections.
“Hardworking Americans like you are keeping more of what they earn because of President Trump’s historic tax cuts.”The IRS email
Neither agency has said how many people got the emails. Frank Bisignano, the Social Security commissioner and IRS chief executive, signed both. In May 2025 the Office of Special Counsel found that Biden’s Social Security commissioner, Martin O’Malley, broke the Hatch Act.