Political Guyentist
Political Guyentist

Tuesday

The Supreme Court building stands behind broad steps, marble statues and a fountain under a blue sky.
The Hill
1usUpdateMail-ballot rules

Supreme Court denies DOJ request to make California set aside any mail ballots from about 20,000 people on a federal suspected-noncitizen list

Separately, Chief U.S. District Judge James Boasberg barred DOJ and DHS from demanding that officials set the ballots aside, finding a likely violation of the Elections Clause (the Constitution's grant of election rules to states and Congress).

- Oct. 18 — Trump said Los Angeles election officials "will all go to jail" if they count mail ballots of 20,000 people DHS flagged as likely noncitizens. - Oct. 20 — DOJ charged 28 California green-card holders from the list with voting crimes and arrested 11; it says 21 actually cast ballots. - Oct. 23 — Attorney General Todd Blanche said DOJ won't "improperly interfere" but wouldn't rule out trying to block states from certifying results. - Oct. 25 — DOJ gave California counties 48 hours to help check citizenship and asked them to set aside the listed voters' mail ballots. - Oct. 26 — A 9th Circuit panel dismissed DOJ's emergency appeal, 2-1, leaving the case with U.S. District Judge David Carter. - Oct. 26 — DOJ asked Washington state to set aside ballots from a 405-name list; Washington refused, saying the list includes U.S. citizens. - Oct. 28 — Carter denied DOJ's request, writing that its last-minute bind was "solely due to its own neglect." - Oct. 30 — Another 9th Circuit panel denied DOJ's next emergency bid, 2-1, with Trump appointee Mark Bennett in the majority. - Oct. 30 — Judge Trina Thompson barred DOJ from threatening election workers who decline to halt ballot processing.

ContextDOJ's remaining request goes before U.S. District Judge David Carter on Nov. 13, ahead of California's certification deadlines: Dec. 3 for counties, Dec. 11 for the state. Winning may recover little, because once a ballot leaves its identifying envelope, officials cannot trace it to a voter. California allows citizenship challenges only before that envelope opens, and with extraordinary proof.

STATELINE12 sources

2usUpdateBattle for the House

Final forecasts favor Democrats to win the House and Senate; Nate Silver's model gives them 95% and 80%

Final New York Times/Siena polls show Democrats ahead in all seven Senate battlegrounds they surveyed, by 1 to 11 points; four of the seven leads are 5 points or less.

- Sept. 27 — Cook projected Republicans would lose the House and called a Democratic Senate majority no longer a long shot. - Sept. 30 — Republicans moved Senate money to defend Texas and sent Trump to Ohio as Georgia and North Carolina slipped. - Oct. 7 — Cook moved Kansas to toss-up and projected Democrats gaining 2 to 6 Senate seats; they need 4. - Oct. 10 — Senate Majority PAC began a $5 million Kansas ad buy; the Republican Senate Leadership Fund had booked more than $10 million there. - Oct. 23 — Over 23 million had voted early, per the University of Florida's Election Lab, with registered Democrats casting 45% of returned ballots and Republicans 30% in states that track party. - Oct. 30 — CNN polls had Democrats up 7 in Michigan and 6 in Texas, with Maine and Kansas tied statistically at 49% to 45%.

ContextThe president's party has lost an average of 25 House seats across the last eight midterms, per Brookings. Final polls overstated Democrats by 2.7 points in 2024 and 4.6 in 2020, per AAPOR, the pollsters' professional group. In the 2018 and 2022 midterms, they missed by just 0.1 toward Democrats and 0.6 toward Republicans.

AXIOS12 sources

3uscontested

DOJ plans 1,000 Election Day poll monitors, up from 714 in 2024; NAACP asks judge to bar federal law enforcement personnel

U.S. District Judge Reggie Walton says he is “struggling” with the request and warned of “hell to pay” if DOJ misstated the monitors’ role.

Where a voter can turn if a federal monitor interferes: Poll official: tell the person running the site and ask them to call the county election office. DOJ staff monitors have no special federal right to enter, and access depends on state law and local permission, the Brennan Center says. Threats or violence: call 911. DOJ’s own guidance says to contact local police first. Election Protection: call or text 866-687-8683 for help that does not run through DOJ.

ContextThe 1,000 figure is not new. Harmeet Dhillon, head of DOJ's Civil Rights Division, gave it to Bloomberg in August, CBS News reported. A DOJ official told CBS the department sent 714 monitors in 2024 and 289 in the 2022 midterms. Former officials told CBS most of the 714 were DOJ lawyers and staff, plus some federal observers. DOJ's 2012 count, which also included observers, topped 780, per a DOJ release. In an Oct. 28 sworn statement, Eric Neff, who leads DOJ's Voting Section, said this year's monitors come from ATF, the DEA and the Bureau of Prisons, plus one Customs and Border Protection employee. He said no FBI or ICE employees will serve and the monitors may not carry guns. At the hearing on Monday, Nov. 2, DOJ lawyer Kathryn Barragan said DOJ would accept an order to make "reasonable efforts" to exclude sworn officers, Democracy Docket reported. That is narrower than the NAACP's request. Federal law, 18 U.S.C. § 592, already makes it a crime for a federal official to bring "troops or armed men" to a polling place, unless they are needed to repel armed enemies of the United States. ProPublica outlines other ways federal pressure could affect voting. One is threats to prosecute officials who do not reject flagged ballots. Trump fired Ben Hovland from the Election Assistance Commission. Hovland told ProPublica: "The administration has been creating a lot of noise, a lot of confusion, a lot of doubt."

NBC NEWS6 sources

4us

Election night guide: Indiana and Kentucky post first results in the 6 p.m. ET hour, Alaska's last polls close at 1 a.m. ET, and the AP calls races mainly from the vote count

Florida's Senate and governor races can't be called before 8 p.m. ET, when its Central-time polls close, per NPR and PBS NewsHour.

When the last polls close in each state (ET), per PBS NewsHour: 7 p.m.: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia. 7:30 p.m.: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia. 8 p.m.: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee. 8:30 p.m.: Arkansas. 9 p.m.: Arizona (results held for one hour), Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming. 10 p.m.: Montana, Nevada, Utah. 11 p.m.: California, Idaho, Oregon, Washington (mail ballots due). Midnight: Hawaii (all-mail voting, with voter service centers open). 1 a.m. Wednesday, Nov. 4: Alaska, where most polls close at midnight.

ContextFirst results are not calls. PBS NewsHour's times mark when all of a state's polls have closed, the earliest point a statewide race can be called. Florida spans Eastern and Central time, so many of its House results arrive in the 7 p.m. ET hour, NPR says. But its Senate and governor races can't be called before 8 p.m. ET, when its Central-time polls close. Arizona holds its results for an hour after its 9 p.m. ET close, per PBS. PBS advises voters to confirm their own polling hours with local election officials. In this year's primaries, the AP declared winners in more than 11,000 races and made three mistakes, Scott told PBS.

PBS NEWSHOUR3 sources

5usUpdatecontestedIran war

Iran says it can reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if the U.S. lifts sanctions and its port blockade; the U.S. strikes Iran's Qeshm Island as Trump says there's 'no rush' to decide on resuming the war

Qatari mediators have drafted a three-day set of trust-building steps meant to restart direct U.S.-Iran talks.

- By Oct. 21 — Iran and the Houthis claimed attacks on Gulf ships and Saudi oil sites; Brent crude topped $111 a barrel and gasoline averaged $4.27. - Oct. 23 — Brent hit $116-117 as Iran claimed hits on seven tankers, which AP could not confirm. - By Oct. 25 — The U.S. pulled diplomats from five Middle East countries and sent more warships after an intelligence memo warned of Iranian plots against Americans. - Oct. 26 — Trump called it “decision time”: a deal, or resumed attacks to “finish it off.” - By Oct. 29 — Saudi, Turkish, Pakistani and Qatari envoys pressed for a deal; U.S. and Israeli officials expected a week of strikes after the midterms without one. - By Oct. 31 — U.S. forces were repositioned to give Trump a post-election strike option; a limpet-mine attack damaged a tanker in the strait, with no attacker named.

ContextIran declared the strait closed days after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began Feb. 28, per the Congressional Research Service. An April 7 ceasefire halted major combat, CRS says. A June 17 deal meant to reopen the strait broke down in July as fighting resumed. Before Monday, Nov. 2, the last publicly known U.S. attacks came in early September, NBC News reports. Commercial ships crossed the strait 65 times from Oct. 26 to Nov. 1, or 9.3 a day counting only ships with tracking on, versus an average of 84.8 a day before shipping was disrupted, per hormuz.now. CENTCOM, the U.S. military's Middle East command, says the main routes are clear of mines; Arsenio Dominguez, head of the U.N.'s shipping agency, says he can't confirm that and still advises ships to stay away.

CBS NEWS8 sources

6not newslongform

Affordable Care Act sign-ups for 2027 run through Jan. 15 in most states, with benchmark premiums up 13% after a 26% rise for 2026, per KFF

Paid enrollment fell 12% to 19.2 million by February 2026, after plan selections dropped 1.2 million in the first sign-up window without the extra COVID-era credits, per KFF.

What HealthCare.gov's 2027 deadlines and checks mean for buyers: Start dates: choose a plan by Dec. 15 for coverage on Jan. 1, 2027; a Jan. 15 sign-up ordinarily starts Feb. 1, which can leave January uncovered. Paused rule: after court stays, a July 31 federal notice says exchanges cannot remove 2027 premium aid for failing to reconcile earlier tax credits. Existing document checks still apply. Immigration limit: 2027 premium aid is limited to green card holders, qualifying Cuban and Haitian entrants, and qualifying residents from Compact of Free Association nations. Other lawfully present immigrants can still buy coverage without the aid.

ContextKFF's 13% tracks the benchmark silver plan, the second-cheapest silver plan in an area, which sets federal premium aid. It is the list price before aid. The same measure rose 26% for 2026, so it is up 42% in two years, per KFF. For 2027, HealthCare.gov states see 11% and state-run exchanges 16%. The Hill, citing KFF, puts earlier jumps at 20% in 2017 and 34% in 2018. Enrollment is already shrinking. Plan selections in the 2026 sign-up window fell by 1.2 million from 2025, the first window after the extra COVID-era premium credits expired. By February 2026, 19.2 million people had paid and kept their plans, down 12% from a year earlier, per KFF. The two counts differ: selections are sign-ups, while paid enrollment drops people who never paid. A 2025 federal rule would have ended HealthCare.gov sign-ups on Dec. 15. A federal judge in Maryland vacated it on June 12, 2026, and CMS says the window runs to Jan. 15. The government has appealed. Idaho's exchange still closes Dec. 15, per healthinsurance.org.

PBS NEWSHOUR2 sources

7not newslongform

IRS and Social Security send mass emails praising Trump days before the Nov. 3 election

Two law professors told The New York Times the messages may violate the Hatch Act, the law barring federal officials from using their authority to affect elections.

Neither agency has said how many people got the emails, and neither answered New York Times questions. Bisignano, also IRS chief executive, signed both. Richard Painter, a University of Minnesota law professor and White House ethics lawyer under President George W. Bush, told the Times: “They're doing it just before the election to persuade people that President Trump is doing a good job.” Kathleen Clark, a law professor at Washington University in St. Louis, told the Times the email read as “propaganda,” not a public service notice. The legal question is whether praising the sitting president in official mail, days before a vote, counts as using official authority to affect an election.

ContextNeither agency has said how many people got the emails, and neither answered New York Times questions. Bisignano, also IRS chief executive, signed both. Richard Painter, a University of Minnesota law professor and White House ethics lawyer under President George W. Bush, told the Times: “They're doing it just before the election to persuade people that President Trump is doing a good job.” Kathleen Clark, a law professor at Washington University in St. Louis, told the Times the email read as “propaganda,” not a public service notice. The legal question is whether praising the sitting president in official mail, days before a vote, counts as using official authority to affect an election. There is precedent. On May 16, 2025, the Office of Special Counsel found that Biden's Social Security commissioner, Martin O'Malley, broke the Hatch Act. In an official radio interview before the 2024 election, he said Trump's proposals would quickly deplete Social Security. Bisignano's own July 2, 2026, email to beneficiaries named Trump six times, and five Democratic senators called it partisan in a July 21 letter. The Office of Special Counsel investigates Hatch Act cases. For a Senate-confirmed appointee like Bisignano, the law sends its findings to the president, who decides any discipline. That is how the O'Malley report reached Trump. The reports cite no complaint over these emails and no comment from the Special Counsel before Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3.

THE WASHINGTON POST2 sources

Tuesday · The daily brief

Nov 32026

7 leads34 briefs30 min

BoardScroll

Executive summary7 stories

News news5

  1. Supreme Court denies DOJ request to make California set aside any mail ballots from about 20,000 people on a federal suspected-noncitizen listSeparately, Chief U.S. District Judge James Boasberg barred DOJ and DHS from demanding that officials set the ballots aside, finding a likely violation of the Elections Clause (the Constitution's grant of election rules to states and Congress).
  2. Final forecasts favor Democrats to win the House and Senate; Nate Silver's model gives them 95% and 80%Final New York Times/Siena polls show Democrats ahead in all seven Senate battlegrounds they surveyed, by 1 to 11 points; four of the seven leads are 5 points or less.
  3. DOJ plans 1,000 Election Day poll monitors, up from 714 in 2024; NAACP asks judge to bar federal law enforcement personnelU.S. District Judge Reggie Walton says he is “struggling” with the request and warned of “hell to pay” if DOJ misstated the monitors’ role.
  4. Election night guide: Indiana and Kentucky post first results in the 6 p.m. ET hour, Alaska's last polls close at 1 a.m. ET, and the AP calls races mainly from the vote countFlorida's Senate and governor races can't be called before 8 p.m. ET, when its Central-time polls close, per NPR and PBS NewsHour.
  5. Iran says it can reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if the U.S. lifts sanctions and its port blockade; the U.S. strikes Iran's Qeshm Island as Trump says there's 'no rush' to decide on resuming the warQatari mediators have drafted a three-day set of trust-building steps meant to restart direct U.S.-Iran talks.

Not news news2

  1. Affordable Care Act sign-ups for 2027 run through Jan. 15 in most states, with benchmark premiums up 13% after a 26% rise for 2026, per KFFPaid enrollment fell 12% to 19.2 million by February 2026, after plan selections dropped 1.2 million in the first sign-up window without the extra COVID-era credits, per KFF.
  2. IRS and Social Security send mass emails praising Trump days before the Nov. 3 electionTwo law professors told The New York Times the messages may violate the Hatch Act, the law barring federal officials from using their authority to affect elections.

News news5 stories

Ongoing9 earlier updates19 days

This story has run 10 times over 19 days, starting Oct 15.

  1. Justice Department orders California to check citizenship of an undisclosed list of mail voters and hold their ballots by noon Thursday, Oct. 15
  2. UpdateJustice Department sues California and Los Angeles County to hold uncounted the mail ballots of about 20,000 people it calls likely noncitizens
  3. UpdateDOJ warns California officials who count suspected noncitizens' ballots they risk federal prosecution
  4. UpdateTrump says Los Angeles election officials 'will all go to jail' if they count the mail ballots of 20,000 people DHS flagged as likely noncitizens
  5. UpdateJustice Department gives California counties 48 hours to help check the citizenship of roughly 20,000 listed voters and asks them to set aside those mail ballots
  6. Update9th Circuit panel of two Trump appointees and one Biden appointee doubts it can order California to set aside mail ballots of about 20,000 people DOJ calls likely noncitizens
  7. Update9th Circuit panel dismisses, 2-1, DOJ's emergency appeal to make California set aside mail ballots of 20,000-plus listed voters
  8. UpdateJudge David Carter says he will appoint a special master to examine how DOJ built its list of 20,000 California voters it calls likely noncitizens
  9. Update9th Circuit panel denies, 2-1, DOJ's emergency bid to make California set aside the ballots of about 20,000 people it calls likely noncitizens
  10. UpdateSupreme Court denies DOJ request to make California set aside any mail ballots from about 20,000 people on a federal suspected-noncitizen list — this issue
STATELINEUpdateMail-ballot rules

Supreme Court denies DOJ request to make California set aside any mail ballots from about 20,000 people on a federal suspected-noncitizen list

Separately, Chief U.S. District Judge James Boasberg barred DOJ and DHS from demanding that officials set the ballots aside, finding a likely violation of the Elections Clause (the Constitution's grant of election rules to states and Congress).

The Supreme Court on Monday, Nov. 2, rejected the Trump administration's emergency request, one day before the Nov. 3 election.

The order. It is one unsigned sentence with no explanation and no noted dissents. The court acted within hours and did not ask California to respond. The order says Justice Elena Kagan referred the request to the full court, which denied it; an early Fox News report said she denied it alone. California Gov. Gavin Newsom said the court "firmly slapped down the Trump DOJ's baseless attack on California's electoral process — not even entertaining it."

Boasberg's ruling. His 20-page decision also bars demands that officials depart from state procedures because a voter is on a federal list. "The President evidently believes that it would be good public policy for more stringent procedures to be put in place," he wrote, but that "does not justify overstepping the bounds of the Executive Branch's limited constitutional authority in this domain."

DOJ's argument. Solicitor General D. John Sauer argued: "Once California commingles the challenged ballots with lawful ones, there is no way to get the challenged ballots back." California voters had already returned more than 5 million mail ballots by Stateline's count, or more than 6 million by CBS News's, vs. about 20,000 people on the federal list.

The list. The 20,000 are names on a DOJ list of suspected noncitizen voters, not a count of ballots cast; the state has more than 23 million registered voters, per CBS News. An expert Boasberg found credible identified at least 22 members of the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights, all known U.S. citizens, wrongly on the list. The expert found 66 more members were almost certainly on it.

What next. The lawsuit continues, but Stateline reports the order appears to be the last word before Election Day.

Catch upwhat happened before · 9 earlier issues
  • Oct. 18 — Trump said Los Angeles election officials "will all go to jail" if they count mail ballots of 20,000 people DHS flagged as likely noncitizens.
  • Oct. 20 — DOJ charged 28 California green-card holders from the list with voting crimes and arrested 11; it says 21 actually cast ballots.
  • Oct. 23 — Attorney General Todd Blanche said DOJ won't "improperly interfere" but wouldn't rule out trying to block states from certifying results.
  • Oct. 25 — DOJ gave California counties 48 hours to help check citizenship and asked them to set aside the listed voters' mail ballots.
  • Oct. 26 — A 9th Circuit panel dismissed DOJ's emergency appeal, 2-1, leaving the case with U.S. District Judge David Carter.
  • Oct. 26 — DOJ asked Washington state to set aside ballots from a 405-name list; Washington refused, saying the list includes U.S. citizens.
  • Oct. 28 — Carter denied DOJ's request, writing that its last-minute bind was "solely due to its own neglect."
  • Oct. 30 — Another 9th Circuit panel denied DOJ's next emergency bid, 2-1, with Trump appointee Mark Bennett in the majority.
  • Oct. 30 — Judge Trina Thompson barred DOJ from threatening election workers who decline to halt ballot processing.
8 earlier issues
AXIOSUpdateBattle for the House

Final forecasts favor Democrats to win the House and Senate; Nate Silver's model gives them 95% and 80%

Final New York Times/Siena polls show Democrats ahead in all seven Senate battlegrounds they surveyed, by 1 to 11 points; four of the seven leads are 5 points or less.

Americans vote today, Tuesday, Nov. 3. The final forecasts, polls and betting odds below all lean toward Democrats. None of them is a result.

The forecast. Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin model gave Democrats a 95% chance of winning the House and an 80% chance of winning the Senate, Axios reported on the evening of Monday, Nov. 2. The model runs 40,000 simulations, so 80% means Democrats fall short of a Senate majority in about one run in five. It projects an average Democratic gain of 25 House seats. Decision Desk HQ's model gave Democrats a 64% Senate chance on the morning of Monday, Nov. 2, per The Hill, with Democratic Senate candidates James Talarico in Texas and Mary Peltola in Alaska each at 61%.

The House math. Republicans hold 218 seats and Democrats 214, with one independent who caucuses with Republicans and two vacancies, per Ballotpedia. A majority is 218 of 435 seats, four more than Democrats hold now. Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan race rater, favors Democrats in 222 districts, and its forecast tops out at 240 if they sweep all 18 toss-ups.

The Senate polls. The final New York Times/Siena polls interviewed 5,708 likely voters in seven states from Oct. 23 to Nov. 1. Democrats led in all seven: Abdul El-Sayed 53-42 over Mike Rogers in Michigan; Talarico 50-43 over Ken Paxton in Texas; Troy Jackson 51-45 over Susan Collins (Sen-R Maine); Adam Hamilton 49-44 over Roger Marshall (Sen-R Kansas); Sherrod Brown 49-44 over Jon Husted (Sen-R Ohio); Peltola 48-46 over Dan Sullivan (Sen-R Alaska); and Josh Turek 48-47 over Ashley Hinson (Rep-R Iowa). Siena puts the margin of error at 3.4 points in Texas (1,215 voters) up to 5.0 in Alaska (610).

The generic ballot. AtlasIntel's final national poll, of 3,566 likely voters from Oct. 28 to Nov. 1 (margin of error 2 points), had Democrats ahead 55.5% to 41.4% on the generic ballot (which party voters want in Congress, with no candidates named).

The market. Kalshi, a prediction market where traders bet money on outcomes, priced Democrats at 73% to win both chambers, per Axios on the evening of Monday, Nov. 2. That price is a bet, not a poll, and Axios notes traders read the same polls. Kalshi gave Flávio Bolsonaro an 84% chance before President Lula won Brazil's Oct. 25 runoff, per Axios.

The warning. New York Times polling chief Nate Cohn warned that white Democrats were about 30% more likely than white Republicans to answer the final Times/Siena surveys, a slightly wider gap than in 2020, when polls overstated Democrats, per Axios. “They don't participate in anything. They hate the system. That's the challenge,” Clifford Young of the polling firm Ipsos told BBC News, speaking of conservatives.

How we got herethe story so far
  • Sept. 27 — Cook projected Republicans would lose the House and called a Democratic Senate majority no longer a long shot.
  • Sept. 30 — Republicans moved Senate money to defend Texas and sent Trump to Ohio as Georgia and North Carolina slipped.
  • Oct. 7 — Cook moved Kansas to toss-up and projected Democrats gaining 2 to 6 Senate seats; they need 4.
  • Oct. 10 — Senate Majority PAC began a $5 million Kansas ad buy; the Republican Senate Leadership Fund had booked more than $10 million there.
  • Oct. 23 — Over 23 million had voted early, per the University of Florida's Election Lab, with registered Democrats casting 45% of returned ballots and Republicans 30% in states that track party.
  • Oct. 30 — CNN polls had Democrats up 7 in Michigan and 6 in Texas, with Maine and Kansas tied statistically at 49% to 45%.
BackgroundWhat a House win changes, and what the Senate adds2 facts
  • House only, from Jan. 3, 2027: Democrats could block new tax changes, spending cuts and appropriations, and open investigations with subpoenas.
  • Senate too: Democrats could reject Trump's judges and Cabinet nominees, since nominations need a simple majority, not 60 votes.
NBC NEWS

DOJ plans 1,000 Election Day poll monitors, up from 714 in 2024; NAACP asks judge to bar federal law enforcement personnel

U.S. District Judge Reggie Walton says he is “struggling” with the request and warned of “hell to pay” if DOJ misstated the monitors’ role.

The plan. The Justice Department will send a record number of monitors to polling places on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, NBC News reports. The Atlantic puts the plan at 1,000 monitors across every state. The NAACP's last-minute request would block personnel from federal law enforcement agencies from serving as monitors.

The ICE question. The Department of Homeland Security says Immigration and Customs Enforcement is not planning operations aimed at polling places and would arrest someone there only over a safety threat during targeted enforcement. ProPublica reports the administration has not explicitly ruled out sending federal agents to polls or seizing ballots or voting machines.

The local warning. Constance Hargrove, elections director in Pima County, Arizona, recalled telling DOJ's coordinator: "Remind them that they cannot take a gun or weapon into the vote centers."

Still open. Whether Walton grants the NAACP's request before polls open Tuesday, Nov. 3.

Where a voter can turn if a federal monitor interferesPoll official: tell the person running the site and ask them to call the county election office.3 details
  • Poll official: tell the person running the site and ask them to call the county election office. DOJ staff monitors have no special federal right to enter, and access depends on state law and local permission, the Brennan Center says.
  • Threats or violence: call 911. DOJ’s own guidance says to contact local police first.
  • Election Protection: call or text 866-687-8683 for help that does not run through DOJ.

Red take

Judge Reggie Walton should refuse the NAACP, because the Justice Department has already sworn that FBI and ICE staff are excluded and guns are barred. Its monitors have no special right to enter a polling place, so local officials still decide who comes in. A ban this late could thin the 1,000 monitors sent to watch for voting-law violations, leaving a voter wrongly turned away on Nov. 3 with fewer federal witnesses.

Blue take

Federal drug, gun and prison staff have no place watching people vote, and Judge Reggie Walton should keep them out of the 1,000 monitors planned for Nov. 3. The Justice Department offers only "reasonable efforts" to exclude sworn officers. ProPublica reports the administration has not explicitly ruled out sending agents to the polls. A ruling after Tuesday cannot return a vote that a frightened voter never cast.

PBS NEWSHOUR

Election night guide: Indiana and Kentucky post first results in the 6 p.m. ET hour, Alaska's last polls close at 1 a.m. ET, and the AP calls races mainly from the vote count

Florida's Senate and governor races can't be called before 8 p.m. ET, when its Central-time polls close, per NPR and PBS NewsHour.

The calls. David Scott, the Associated Press's vice president of election services, told PBS NewsHour on Monday, Nov. 2, that the AP looks mainly at the vote count when it calls a race (declares a winner before official results). It also weighs the advance vote (ballots cast before Election Day) and the state's history. “When we see and we are certain that the trailing candidate can't catch up, that's when we declare a winner,” Scott said.

The clock. NPR's Domenico Montanaro names Indiana and Kentucky as early bellwethers (states whose first results can hint at the national picture); their first results come in the 6 p.m. ET hour, he says. PBS NewsHour's state-by-state guide lists when all polls have closed in each state, the earliest point a statewide race could be called. Some states have more than one closing time.

What to watch. Montanaro says Republicans have done well in the Trump era when they win at least 46% of independents, and lost when they haven't. In Michigan's Senate race, he says Democrats have needed 68% or more in Wayne County to win, unless they overperform in the suburbs. In Texas, he will watch whether Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton runs more than 400,000 votes behind Gov. Greg Abbott; Ted Cruz (Sen-R Texas) ran about that far behind Abbott in 2018 and still won.

When the last polls close in each state (ET), per PBS NewsHour7 p.m.: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia.9 details
  • 7 p.m.: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia.
  • 7:30 p.m.: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia.
  • 8 p.m.: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee.
  • 8:30 p.m.: Arkansas.
  • 9 p.m.: Arizona (results held for one hour), Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming.
  • 10 p.m.: Montana, Nevada, Utah.
  • 11 p.m.: California, Idaho, Oregon, Washington (mail ballots due).
  • Midnight: Hawaii (all-mail voting, with voter service centers open).
  • 1 a.m. Wednesday, Nov. 4: Alaska, where most polls close at midnight.
Ongoing30 earlier updates55 days

This story has run 31 times over 55 days, starting Sep 9.

  1. Houthi missiles and drones hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and halting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery
  2. UpdateBrent oil exceeds $100 a barrel; US diesel reaches $5.94 a gallon
  3. Houthis capture Yemen's Mokha from Saudi-backed forces 46 miles from Bab el-Mandeb
  4. UpdateHouthi forces captured Mokha and Perim island in the 28-kilometer Bab el-Mandeb strait.
  5. UpdateA day after the Bab el-Mandeb capture, maritime monitors have recorded no new transit halts
  6. UpdateSaudi Arabia shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline, oil rises more than $3 with 4% of supply at risk
  7. UpdateHouthis seize two more Red Sea islands as Saudi pipeline faces 3-to-5-week outage
  8. UpdateSaudi Arabia suspends loadings at its last open oil terminal; September cargoes cancelled
  9. Attacks on Saudi export pipeline push WTI crude to $107.02 a barrel, a 30-day high
  10. UpdateHouthi missiles hit Riyadh, burning a fuel depot near King Khalid airport
  11. UpdateSaudi Arabia says it intercepted a Houthi missile aimed at Riyadh
  12. UpdateTrump declined a prepared U.S. air campaign against the Houthis, giving Saudi Arabia intelligence and targeting data instead
  13. UpdateSaudi Arabia tested its shut east-west pipeline for a restart as oil fell below $98
  14. Chris Murphy (Sen-D Connecticut) says Pentagon is hiding Iran war damage and a deal isn't imminent
  15. UpdateStrike on Riyadh airport kills 12, including an American; Trump says the U.S. "may" join Saudi strikes on the Houthis
  16. UpdateRiyadh airport hit again Sunday, Oct. 11, killing one; Saturday's strike toll rises to at least 13, including an American
  17. UpdateSaudi Arabia investigates why its air defenses failed to stop the Houthi strike that killed at least 13 at Riyadh's airport
  18. UpdateSaudi-led coalition bombs Houthi oil facilities and a fuel depot in Yemen after a Riyadh airport strike killed at least 13
  19. Houthi strike damages 3 floors of Aramco's Dhahran headquarters, including executive offices; no casualties
  20. Brent crude touches $110 a barrel, its first time there since May 20, after Saudi-led forces intercept missiles aimed at energy hubs
  21. Iran is giving the Houthis targeting and intelligence help for their strikes on Saudi Arabia, WSJ reports
  22. Judge jails ex-OpenAI engineer accused of bugging executives; prosecutors say Saudi official flew his family out
  23. UpdateBrent crude tops $111 a barrel, its highest since May, after Iran and the Houthis claim attacks on Gulf ships and Saudi oil sites
  24. UpdateState Department orders non-emergency U.S. staff and families out of Saudi Arabia after Houthi attacks on airports and oil sites
  25. Brent crude hits $116-117 a barrel Friday, Oct. 23, on fears the Iran war escalates again
  26. UpdateU.S. cuts staff at embassies in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and the UAE after intelligence chief says Iranian plots to kill Americans are at 'advanced stages'
  27. UpdateTrump says it's 'decision time' on Iran: a deal, or resumed attacks to 'finish it off'
  28. Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani envoys meet Iran's security chiefs in Tehran to push for a U.S.-Iran deal
  29. Qatar-led mediators urge Iran to admit UN inspectors for partial U.S. sanctions relief; U.S. and Israeli officials expect a week of strikes after the midterms without a deal
  30. UpdateQatari mediators return to Tehran to push an interim U.S.-Iran deal as Trump says the war will end 'soon'
  31. UpdateIran says it can reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if the U.S. lifts sanctions and its port blockade; the U.S. strikes Iran's Qeshm Island as Trump says there's 'no rush' to decide on resuming the war — this issue
CBS NEWSUpdateIran war

Iran says it can reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if the U.S. lifts sanctions and its port blockade; the U.S. strikes Iran's Qeshm Island as Trump says there's 'no rush' to decide on resuming the war

Qatari mediators have drafted a three-day set of trust-building steps meant to restart direct U.S.-Iran talks.

Iran's offer. Iran says the strait, the narrow Gulf exit that carries about 20% of the world's oil, could reopen within two days if the U.S. meets its demands. ([TS]back in June, Reuters' estimate for mine work and shipper confidence was 40 to 50 days) Those include lifting sanctions, ending the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and releasing frozen assets. “The realization of this depends entirely on Washington's will and decision,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said.

Trump's answer. “One way or the other, we will do something, but there is no rush. We crippled them financially,” Trump told Axios in an interview published Monday, Nov. 2. His advisers are split among a deal, renewed combat and continued economic pressure, CBS News reports.

The strike. The U.S. struck Iran's Qeshm Island on Monday, Nov. 2, U.S. officials told NBC News, CNN and ABC News, after The Wall Street Journal first reported it. They called it a limited, defensive strike, not a return to major combat. One official told NBC it hit a missile launcher after Iran again tried to target a U.S. aircraft; another told ABC it was the latest of several unpublicized strikes in recent weeks.

The talks. Iran's delegation left Qatar on Sunday, Nov. 1, with a draft circulated for feedback, PBS NewsHour reports. Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, says the supreme leader has given his government more authority to pursue talks. “We've certainly made some progress. We'll see if we can make some more,” Vice President JD Vance said.

What next. PBS says a follow-up meeting is under discussion.

Catch upwhat happened before · 30 earlier issues
  • By Oct. 21 — Iran and the Houthis claimed attacks on Gulf ships and Saudi oil sites; Brent crude topped $111 a barrel and gasoline averaged $4.27.
  • Oct. 23 — Brent hit $116-117 as Iran claimed hits on seven tankers, which AP could not confirm.
  • By Oct. 25 — The U.S. pulled diplomats from five Middle East countries and sent more warships after an intelligence memo warned of Iranian plots against Americans.
  • Oct. 26 — Trump called it “decision time”: a deal, or resumed attacks to “finish it off.”
  • By Oct. 29 — Saudi, Turkish, Pakistani and Qatari envoys pressed for a deal; U.S. and Israeli officials expected a week of strikes after the midterms without one.
  • By Oct. 31 — U.S. forces were repositioned to give Trump a post-election strike option; a limpet-mine attack damaged a tanker in the strait, with no attacker named.
29 earlier issues
What the president could and could not deliver aloneSanctions: Trump can change or revoke those set by executive order, and many set by Congress allow waivers.3 details
  • Sanctions: Trump can change or revoke those set by executive order, and many set by Congress allow waivers. Permanent repeal outside a law's existing termination terms takes Congress.
  • Frozen money abroad: lifting U.S. sanctions does not move the cash, because foreign banks must cooperate. The Congressional Research Service finds no full public inventory of the funds. In 2023, a waiver let banks move $6 billion from South Korea to restricted Qatari accounts, for humanitarian purchases only, with payments to Iran's government barred.
  • A nuclear deal: it would generally go to Congress within five days, with relief from sanctions set by law barred during a 30-day review. The draft's published terms do not settle whether that law applies.

Red take

President Trump is right to sit tight: Iran wants every lever surrendered at once (sanctions, the port blockade, its frozen assets) on the word of a government that on Oct. 23 claimed hits on seven tankers. Its two-day reopening runs against Reuters' June estimate of 40 to 50 days for mine work and shipper confidence. Pay that price and Tehran keeps the cash and its grip on the strait, and Washington holds nothing.

Blue take

President Trump can afford “no rush”; drivers who saw gasoline average $4.27 last month cannot. He can test the three-day trust-building steps Qatar's mediators drafted without paying Iran's full price: ease the port blockade first, a step he can reverse, and hold sanctions relief and frozen assets until tankers actually move. If Iran's two-day claim is false, Washington learns that at limited cost, with its post-election strike option still in place.

Quick bites12

Courts4 bites

  1. Federal judge dismisses DOJ suit to block Alaska Senate certification if Dan Sullivan (Sen-R Alaska) loses

    NBC NEWSUpdateAlaska Senate race

    Alaska's ballot has two Senate candidates named Sullivan. It lists the senator as Dan S. Sullivan, Republican, and retired teacher Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. with no party, the Associated Press reports. DOJ claimed voters could confuse them. It asked the court to set aside ballots ranking the second Sullivan and to delay certification if the senator loses.

    Judge Sharon Gleason ruled Sunday, Nov. 1, that DOJ's bid to separate Daniel J. Sullivan's ballots clashed with ballot secrecy and Alaska's authority over its elections; DOJ says it will appeal to the 9th Circuit.

    How we got herethe story so far
    • Oct. 15 — Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola, a former congresswoman, held their final debate in a toss-up race; he broke with Trump on a Russian diesel deal.
    • Oct. 22-23 — DOJ sued Alaska; Trump said he had ordered the case.
    • Oct. 25-28 — Peltola's campaign, Senate Democrats and Alaska's Republican-led state government asked the court to throw the case out; Daniel J. Sullivan called it a "gross misuse."
    • Oct. 28 — The New York Times reported Peltola's campaign and allies helped recruit the second Sullivan; the campaign denied it, and the main source had asked to retract her interviews before publication.
    • Oct. 29 — Peltola denied knowing about the effort: "I am not interested in tricking voters."
    • Oct. 30 — Alaska's U.S. attorney confirmed a criminal probe under way for several months, and DOJ sought sworn answers from Peltola's campaign and Senate Democrats' campaign arm. Alaska's governor said he had ordered a state investigation.
    Also newFBI agents have been interviewing Daniel J.2 details
    • FBI agents have been interviewing Daniel J. Sullivan's dozen contributors, the Associated Press reports; they include Sharon Hunter of Petersburg, who gave money with her husband.
    • Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy said on Friday, Oct. 30, that if wrongdoing turns up and "that means that the certification then is stopped or changed, then that's what happens," NPR reports.

  2. Indicted ICE officer Mario Morales surrenders, posts $30,000 bond in Houston SUV case

    NBC NEWSUpdateICE raids

    Judge Matthew Peneguy set bond at $30,000, below the $75,000 prosecutors sought, for Morales, 33, whose lawyer calls the strike accidental; prosecutors say video contradicts ICE's account.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 4 earlier issues
    • Oct. 10 — An unmarked ICE SUV hit Miguel Parra Hernandez, 48, as he fled a Houston-area stop aimed at someone else, breaking his leg.
    • Oct. 13 — Harris County DA Sean Teare said video made it "pretty obvious" the officer ran him over on purpose; ICE said the man ran in front of the vehicle, per NBC.
    • Oct. 14 — Teare told ABC that two detainees sat in the SUV's back seat. He said agents moved them to detention before his office could interview them, and he wants them kept as material witnesses.
    • Oct. 30 — Harris County grand jury indicted Morales on felony aggravated assault with a deadly weapon, 2 to 20 years; the DA says the man had no criminal record or deportation order.
    3 earlier issues
    The officer's recordICE hired Morales in August 2025, during the administration's hiring surge, per his lawyer David Lindenmuth, who says he had more…4 details
    • ICE hired Morales in August 2025, during the administration's hiring surge, per his lawyer David Lindenmuth, who says he had more training than other hires.
    • He resigned from the Texas prison system in 2018 while on probation for falsifying records, logging security rounds that were not done, a state spokeswoman told NBC.
    • In 2013 he was charged with a misdemeanor for stealing four DVDs; it was dismissed under a plea deal with a $270 fine, per AP court records.
    • After seeing that record on Friday, Oct. 30, Teare said he is "not familiar with a single agency that would have hired" Morales. Lindenmuth calls that character assassination.
    Ongoing4

    This story has run 5 times over 22 days, starting Oct 12.

    1. ICE vehicle hit a fleeing man, breaking his leg, in a Houston-area raid targeting another man
    2. UpdateHouston DA says video shows ICE officer ran a man over on purpose, weighs assault charge
    3. ICE deported a Houston-area man to Ghana, which put him on a flight to Mali, the country a U.S. judge barred his removal to in 2012
    4. UpdateHarris County grand jury indicts ICE officer Mario Morales on felony assault for driving his SUV into a fleeing man
    5. UpdateIndicted ICE officer Mario Morales surrenders, posts $30,000 bond in Houston SUV case — this issue

  3. DOJ seeks contempt review of group that faulted its list of 20,000 suspected California noncitizen voters

    ABC NEWSVoter-roll checks

    The immigrant rights group's analysis found more than 40% of the names were not in California's voter file.

    The contempt fightDOJ suggested Judge Boasberg refer the matter to DOJ for a possible criminal contempt investigation.3 details
    • DOJ suggested Judge Boasberg refer the matter to DOJ for a possible criminal contempt investigation.
    • DOJ says the disclosure violated an order limiting the data to legal standing and called the report "political grandstanding."
    • UCLA Voting Rights Project spokesman Alberto Lammers said the group's lawyers and experts "fully complied with the Court's orders."

  4. Ex-Chicago FBI chief sues Trump, says he was forced out over failed anti-ICE protester case

    THE HILLICE raids

    Douglas DePodesta alleges a federal prosecutor tried to blame him when the case against the "Broadview Six" protesters fell apart. He led the Chicago office from 2024 to July 2026. He also alleges he faced pressure to investigate Trump's political opponents.

The Ukraine war2 bites

  1. U.S. will mediate Ukraine-Russia working-level talks in Abu Dhabi on Nov. 10-11, Steve Witkoff says

    AXIOSRussia-Ukraine war

    The talks, with Witkoff and Jared Kushner leading the U.S. delegation, restart an effort suspended in February because of the Iran war. Axios reports the sides remain far apart, especially on territory.

    Agenda and Brussels meetingAbu Dhabi agenda, per Witkoff: "post-war security arrangements, de-escalation, humanitarian efforts, and next steps."2 details
    • Abu Dhabi agenda, per Witkoff: "post-war security arrangements, de-escalation, humanitarian efforts, and next steps."
    • This week in Brussels: lower-level U.S. officials meet France, Germany, the U.K., the EU and NATO on security guarantees and reconstruction.
    Ongoing9

    This story has run 10 times over 23 days, starting Oct 11.

    1. UpdateTrump says Ukraine needs "a new president" and tells Zelensky to stop striking Russian oil refineries
    2. UpdateTrump says Russia and Ukraine agreed to an immediate energy ceasefire; Moscow has not confirmed it
    3. UpdateUkraine strikes a Russian refinery, ending the three-day energy-strike pause Trump demanded
    4. UpdateEU leaders say they 'regret' Trump's lifting of Russian diesel sanctions; Trump calls Zelensky 'not a good guy'
    5. UpdateZelensky says Ukraine will negotiate 'anywhere' and seeks a U.S.–Russia–Ukraine meeting at the G20
    6. UpdateUkrainian drone hits a St. Petersburg oil terminal; Zelensky holds 40-minute call with Witkoff and Kushner
    7. UpdateTrump tells Zelensky to let 'somebody else' negotiate for Ukraine and says Russia 'has been fine'
    8. UpdateZelensky says U.S. missile-attack warnings work again after Oslo talks with Trump envoy Steve Witkoff
    9. UpdateThree tankers carrying 140,000 tons of Russian diesel under Trump's Putin deal head for U.S.
    10. U.S. will mediate Ukraine-Russia working-level talks in Abu Dhabi on Nov. 10-11, Steve Witkoff says — this issue

  2. Zelensky says Ukraine has intelligence Russia plans massive energy and logistics attack during US midterms

    FOX NEWSRussia-Ukraine war

    On Monday, Nov. 2, Zelensky urged the US to raise economic pressure on Moscow. Fox News reports the warning came hours after a Russian strike on a school used for aid distribution in Komyshuvakha, Zaporizhzhia region. The strike killed at least 26, per Ukrainska Pravda.

Also tonight4 bites

  1. Trump says he would pardon staff and allies "if I needed to" if a Democratic Congress investigates them

    THE NEW YORK TIMES

    Asked on the New York Post's "Pod Force One" podcast, published Monday, Nov. 2, about rumors that Elon Musk could be investigated or have assets seized, Trump said, "It's talk. But if it is talk, we'll have to protect them." On pardons for staff and other allies, he said, "I would if I needed to. Sure," Axios reports. He added: "I'd do it."

    A pardon covers only federal crimes, which the Constitution calls "Offenses against the United States." It does not stop a congressional subpoena. A pardoned witness can also lose the Fifth Amendment right to refuse questions about the pardoned acts, the Congressional Research Service notes.

  2. DOJ says it charged 63 people in 15 states with election crimes, raising its count to 239 since January 2025

    WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdate

    DOJ announced the 63 cases on Monday, Nov. 2. They include voting as a noncitizen, falsely claiming citizenship to register or vote, and registering in the wrong state. DOJ says four of the 63 are in the country illegally; most others are green-card holders. The 239 counts people charged since Trump returned to office in January 2025, not people convicted. For scale, more than 158 million ballots were counted in the 2024 general election alone, per the U.S. Election Assistance Commission.

    On the eve of the Nov. 3 election, Los Angeles prosecutors charged six green card holders over naturalization applications. Each faces one false-statement count. A grand jury refused to charge another person with voter fraud.

    On Wednesday, Sept. 30, Attorney General Todd Blanche announced voter-fraud charges against 10 noncitizens in Minnesota. He said DOJ had charged more than 90 people since Trump returned to office, and Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin cited 10 related convictions, Fox News reported.

    Other detailsDOJ says it charged 195 noncitizens in 25 states with illegal voting and registration offenses in the past nine weeks.2 details
    • DOJ says it charged 195 noncitizens in 25 states with illegal voting and registration offenses in the past nine weeks. DOJ does not say how many of them are among the 239.
    • DHS general counsel James Percival: "If you illegally cast a vote, we will find you, we will charge you, and we will deport you."

  3. Child in Lewis County dies in New York's first measles death in more than 30 years

    THE NEW YORK TIMESMeasles outbreak

    New York has 178 measles cases this year, 15 of them in Lewis County, the state health department says. Gov. Kathy Hochul declared the outbreak an emergency in October.

    The wider outbreakPennsylvania: 1,433 cases and 269 hospitalizations as of Monday, Nov. 2, per the state health department; NBC News counts six…2 details
    • Pennsylvania: 1,433 cases and 269 hospitalizations as of Monday, Nov. 2, per the state health department; NBC News counts six deaths.
    • United States: 4,852 cases as of Thursday, Oct. 29, per the CDC, more than double the 2,289 for all of 2025.

  4. Brent fell 7.6% to $104.77 on Iran talks hopes, largest one-day drop since July 27

    NBC NEWSFuel prices

    U.S. crude fell 7.3% to $96.46. Those figures imply drops of about $8.60 for Brent and $7.60 for U.S. crude. Trump called it "almost $10 a Barrel" and "A RECORD." It was not a record even this year. On April 17, Brent fell $9.01 and U.S. crude fell $10.48, per Reuters. NBC says the Nov. 2 drop was the biggest in dollars since April 17, and in percent since July 27.

Elections2 bites

  1. Haley Stevens (Rep-D Michigan) endorses Republican Mike Rogers for Senate after losing primary to Abdul El-Sayed

    CBS NEWSMichigan Senate race

    The endorsement followed a feud over a Rebellion PAC ad linking high costs to U.S. support for Israel, an ad El-Sayed's campaign did not produce and he says he disagrees with.

    The fallout and the moneyMichigan Democratic Party chair Curtis Hertel said Stevens is not a current or future party member.3 details
    • Michigan Democratic Party chair Curtis Hertel said Stevens is not a current or future party member.
    • El-Sayed's campaign says it raised more than $2.4 million on Sunday, Nov. 1, and drew more than 26,000 first-time donors.
    • The Guardian reports that Aipac and affiliated groups spent about $30 million on Stevens' primary bid.
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times over 3 days, starting Oct 31.

    1. Haley Stevens will campaign with Abdul El-Sayed Sunday, Nov. 1, their first joint event since August, but still wants an apology
    2. Haley Stevens (Rep-D Michigan) endorses Republican Mike Rogers for Senate after losing primary to Abdul El-Sayed — this issue

  2. Trump, in final pre-election speech, says Republicans "gave this a very strong shot"

    NBC NEWS

    Speaking at the reopened Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, Trump spent about 20 minutes on the pool and other D.C. projects, then repeated vandalism claims his own DOJ dropped after prosecutors acknowledged faulty installation caused the damage.

    Trump's final pushThe Reflecting Pool makeover cost $14 million, per The Guardian.3 details
    • The Reflecting Pool makeover cost $14 million, per The Guardian.
    • Trump again pledged $5,000 checks if Republicans win, per Axios. The money would need an act of Congress: "I would assume, yes, he'd need Congress to act," House Speaker Mike Johnson (Rep-R Louisiana) said in September, per Fox News.
    • Trump was scheduled to hold 9 tele-rallies on Monday, Nov. 2, per Fox News.

Elections22 races

The midterms · today · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Nov 2, 11:11 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 95%, Kalshi 94%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 77%, Kalshi 76%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 93.55–94.50%
95%94%chance Democrats take it · 0.9pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 95% and Kalshi 94%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 75.5–76.5%
77%76%chance Democrats take it · 1.0pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 77% and Kalshi 76%.

3 closest races

  • qIowa SenateJosh Turek 52.5%▲9.3Ashley Hinson 48.5%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Josh Turek (D) faces Ashley Hinson (R).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead after gaining about ten points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Nov 2, 11:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 52.5%, Kalshi 52.5%; Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 48.5%, Kalshi 48.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aeTexas governorGreg Abbott 59.88%▲6.3Gina Hinojosa 40.00%

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a clear lead after the Democratic side gained about seven points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Nov 2, 11:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 60.25%, Kalshi 59.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ahFlorida governorByron Donalds 63.0%▲13.736.5%Jolly

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: it is down about fourteen points.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Nov 2, 11:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 64.5%, Kalshi 61.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 37.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 12 still in doubt · Nov 2, 11:11 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate9 of 10

  • pAlaska SenateMary Peltola 71.0%▲2.7Sullivan 29.3%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Nov 2, 11:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 69.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 31.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • xGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 96.85%▲1.5Collins 3.25%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Nov 2, 11:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.6pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 97.05%, Kalshi 96.65%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 2.95%, Kalshi 3.55%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • nMaine SenateTroy Jackson 73.5%▲11.5Susan Collins 27.5%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about twelve points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Nov 2, 11:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • rMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 79.5%▲10.6Rogers 20.5%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about eleven points in six days.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Nov 2, 11:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 78.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 68.0%▲3.6Osborn 30.0%

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead after losing about four points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Nov 2, 11:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 66.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • zNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 94.9%▲4.1Sununu 5.7%

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about four points in six days.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Nov 2, 11:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.2pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 95.5%, Kalshi 94.3%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 5.5%, Kalshi 5.8%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • wNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 97.53%▲0.6Whatley 2.52%

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Nov 2, 11:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 97.75%, Kalshi 97.30%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 2.30%, Kalshi 2.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • sOhio SenateSherrod Brown 72.0%▲3.2Jon Husted 28.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Nov 2, 11:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 71.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 28.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • oTexas SenateJames Talarico 74.0%▲7.2Ken Paxton 26.0%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about seven points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Nov 2, 11:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 74.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors10 of 12

  • abAlaska governor11.50%88.4%WilsonBegich 0.05%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Nov 2, 11:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 12.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 0.05%, Kalshi 0.05%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    No 7-day series from Kalshi on Tom Begich. Shown as a hollow dot at today only — nothing is drawn where nothing was reported.

  • adArizona governorKatie Hobbs 92.88%▲2.0Biggs 7.17%

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Nov 2, 11:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 93.50%, Kalshi 92.25%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 6.50%, Kalshi 7.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • uGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 70.5%▲8.3Rick Jackson 30.0%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about nine points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Nov 2, 11:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 70.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 29.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aaIowa governorRob Sand 86.3%▲2.513.5%Lahn

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about three points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Nov 2, 11:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 87.0%, Kalshi 85.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 14.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • acMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 94.72%▲2.2James 5.38%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Nov 2, 11:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.9pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 95.15%, Kalshi 94.30%; John James (R): Polymarket 5.00%, Kalshi 5.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.9pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • vNevada governorAaron Ford 75.0%▲2.825.5%Lombardo

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Aaron Ford (D) faces Joe Lombardo (R).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Nov 2, 11:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 75.5%, Kalshi 74.5%; Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 24.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • afNew York governorKathy Hochul 95.78%▲0.7Blakeman 4.18%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Nov 2, 11:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.6pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 96.05%, Kalshi 95.50%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 3.95%, Kalshi 4.40%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • mOhio governorAmy Acton 82.5%▲4.917.5%Ramaswamy

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Nov 2, 11:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 81.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 16.5%, Kalshi 18.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • agPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 98.63%▲1.4Garrity 1.32%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Nov 2, 11:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.2pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 98.60%, Kalshi 98.65%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 1.20%, Kalshi 1.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.2pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • tWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 85.5%▲6.314.0%Tiffany

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about seven points in six days.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Nov 2, 11:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 85.5%, Kalshi 85.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 13.5%, Kalshi 14.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Nov 2, 11:11 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Not news news2 stories

PBS NEWSHOUR

Affordable Care Act sign-ups for 2027 run through Jan. 15 in most states, with benchmark premiums up 13% after a 26% rise for 2026, per KFF

Paid enrollment fell 12% to 19.2 million by February 2026, after plan selections dropped 1.2 million in the first sign-up window without the extra COVID-era credits, per KFF.

Open enrollment, the yearly window to buy Affordable Care Act coverage, has begun for 2027 and runs through Jan. 15 in most states. Buyers face higher premiums, fewer options, narrower financial help and stricter checks. KFF, a health policy research group, finds the average benchmark silver premium is up 13%.

The federal Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services says HealthCare.gov users will have robust access to low-cost plans. KFF's Cynthia Cox, on people without subsidies: "They may or may not be able to afford to continue to keep their coverage into next year."

BackgroundWhat HealthCare.gov's 2027 deadlines and checks mean for buyers3 facts
  • Start dates: choose a plan by Dec. 15 for coverage on Jan. 1, 2027; .
  • Paused rule: after court stays, a July 31 federal notice says exchanges cannot remove 2027 premium aid for failing to reconcile earlier tax credits. Existing document checks still apply.
  • Immigration limit: 2027 premium aid is limited to green card holders, qualifying Cuban and Haitian entrants, and qualifying residents from Compact of Free Association nations. Other lawfully present immigrants can still buy coverage without the aid.
THE WASHINGTON POST

IRS and Social Security send mass emails praising Trump days before the Nov. 3 election

Two law professors told The New York Times the messages may violate the Hatch Act, the law barring federal officials from using their authority to affect elections.

The IRS sent its email Thursday, Oct. 29, and Social Security sent its email Friday, Oct. 30, and Saturday, Oct. 31, per The Washington Post and The New York Times. The IRS email said: “Hardworking Americans like you are keeping more of what they earn because of President Trump's historic tax cuts.” The Social Security message credited Trump with changing the agency:

“Under President Donald J. Trump, the Social Security Administration (SSA) is transforming into a model of excellence.”Frank Bisignano, Social Security commissioner

15 stories that didn't make the cutSeen by the desk, ranked, and not run. The number is where each stood in the day's order.

News

  • 48Netanyahu presses Trump on renewed Iran strikes in phone callNetanyahu pressed Trump on renewed Iran strikes in a phone call; the call alone marks no decision, and the issue's limited space went to the election.
  • 49Gulf allies brace for renewed US strikes on Iran and blowbackGulf allies are bracing for renewed U.S. strikes on Iran and possible blowback; the report covers preparation for an event that has not happened.
  • 53Cook moves Michigan Senate to Lean Democratic as Siena sees El-Sayed momentumCook moved Michigan Senate to Lean Democratic as Siena saw El-Sayed momentum; a late ratings shift is a forecast that voting will soon test.
  • 54Previews of the Senate battlegrounds on the final dayIt previewed the Senate battlegrounds on the campaign's final day; a race-by-race scorecard offers no discrete news and will soon be overtaken by results.
  • 56House battlefield expands, with limits to a blue waveThe House battlefield is expanding, though a blue wave may have limits; this newsletter's outlook is a forecast that voting will soon test.
  • 57Democrats plan and argue over Trump investigations if they win CongressDemocrats are planning and arguing over Trump investigations if they win Congress; those plans depend on an election outcome that is not yet known.

Election related

  • 43Gas prices are on course to be the highest for any Election Day in U.S. historyGas prices are on course for the highest Election Day level in U.S. history; the projection did not outrank the DOJ poll-monitor fight for the issue's limited space.
  • 44Midterm eve state of play and live coverageIt offered a midterm-eve overview of the state of play; a general roundup gives readers no single discrete development.
  • 45Trump's election fraud reward raises vigilantism fearsTrump's election fraud reward has raised fears of vigilantism; the candidate arrived as a headline only, with no supporting detail on the reward's terms or effects.
  • 46CISA retreats from election securityCISA's retreat from election security bears directly on the midterms; the candidate arrived without details showing what changed or what effect it has had.
  • 47Early voting surges with promising signs for DemocratsAn early-voting surge was said to show promising signs for Democrats; the claim rests on a single X post, and early votes cannot show who will win.
  • 50Inflation and cost of living as the defining midterm issueInflation and cost of living frame the midterm debate; this is an opinion piece rather than new reporting, so it adds argument but no fresh development.
  • 51Tarrant County closes 92 polling locationsTarrant County's closure of 92 polling locations affects voter access in a major Texas county; its local scope lost out to the national poll-monitor story.
  • 52National Guard roles around the midtermsStates are giving National Guard members roles around the midterms, including cybersecurity; the candidate lacked detail, and the lead already covers federal election presence.
  • 55Talarico-Paxton Texas Senate raceThe Talarico-Paxton Texas Senate race is among the midterm contests drawing attention; the candidate named the race but identified no specific new development.

More on the Elections page