Archive edition
Markets, not pollsPolymarketKalshi
Elections
Snapshot Oct 15, 8:54 PM CT · 78 days tracked
T−18
Georgia governor: the books now name different leaders.
Since the previous edition · October 15, 2026
- Iowa governor: the books went opposite ways on Rob Sand — down 1.5 points on Polymarket, up 1 point on Kalshi.
- Iowa Senate: the books went opposite ways on Ashley Hinson — up 1 point on Polymarket, down 1 point on Kalshi.
- Ohio governor: Amy Acton rose on both books — up 1 point on Polymarket, up 3 points on Kalshi.
the file
the day's election stories5 stories the classifier tied to a race or the midterm, filed 10/16 — the newest filing on the shelf. Headlines link to the outlet.
Senate2
The general file3
- Trump's efforts to assert control over the midterms and fears he'll challenge resultsThe New York Times · 10/16
- Wisconsin issues guidance on federal agents at pollsPBS NewsHour · 10/16
- How claims of widespread noncitizen voting fall apartThe New York Times · 10/16
The older file — 42 stories from earlier nights
- Trump's approval falls to 36% in Fox News poll, his lowest in either term@RonBrownstein · 10/15
- Trump's Alaska stop for Sen. Sullivan as GOP frets over tight racePolitico · 10/15
- Elon Musk becomes the biggest donor of the midterms, shaping GOP strategyThe New York Times · 10/14
- Millions of early ballots cast in the midtermsNBC News · 10/14
- Trump push for state voter data has mostly failedStateline · 10/14
- Interest on debt exceeds 3% of GDP for second time since 1940@DKThomp · 10/13
- House race ratings and shifting districts point to worsening Republican prospects@admcrlsn · 10/12
- Musk's PAC spreads inaccurate voting information, officials sayCNN · 10/11
- Economic pain and an unpopular Trump put the GOP on its heelsThe New York Times · 10/11
- Bipartisan lawmakers try to head off a post-election seating crisisThe Washington Post · 10/11
- Taxpayer-funded White House ads air in battleground districtsFinancial Times · 10/11
- Trump showers voters with checks and tax relief before the midtermsThe Washington Post · 10/11
- Poll: an end to the war or cheaper gas may not save RepublicansPolitico · 10/11
- University of Michigan's preliminary October consumer sentiment index fell to 46.3, the second-lowest reading on recordWashington Examiner · 10/10
- D.C. election board tells National Guard to keep troops away from ballot drop boxesWashington Examiner · 10/10
- Late postmarks could get mail ballots rejectedNPR · 10/10
- ProPublica: Paxton's travel security cost taxpayers millionsProPublica · 10/10
- Trump pauses Iran strikes before midterms as Iran preserves missile capacityBloomberg · 10/10
- NY Fed study finds tariffs drove up consumer goods prices@ernietedeschi · 10/08
- Roger Marshall's Kansas Senate seat becomes competitive@BulwarkOnline · 10/08
- YouGov polls of 7 Senate races show Democratic leads, including Talarico +6@StatisticUrban · 10/07
- Trump rallies in Texas; Paxton deflects blame and Abbott skips the San Antonio stopCNN · 10/07
- [UPDATE] Trump approval falls to 32% in Reuters/Ipsos poll, the lowest that poll has recordedReuters · 10/06
- States prep for possible Trump midterm disruptionStateline · 10/06
- Senate Leadership Fund pours $14M into the tightening Kansas Senate raceCBS News · 10/06
- DCCC adds six GOP-held seats to its Red to Blue target listThe Washington Post · 10/06
- AG Todd Blanche says DOJ's planned record 1,000-plus midterm election monitors won't be armedWashington Examiner · 10/05
- Trump promises $90 Medicare payments and other health checks before the midtermsTIME · 10/05
- States say Trump administration isn't helping counter foreign threats to midtermsThe Washington Post · 10/05
- Gas, diesel and electricity prices squeeze American votersThe Wall Street Journal · 10/05
- September jobs report: hiring slows, unemployment rises to 4.2%CBS News · 10/04
- GOP failed to punt health care cuts past midtermsPolitico · 10/04
- House Republicans privately expect to lose the HouseCNN · 10/04
- Trump's midterm campaign blitz through red statesNBC News · 10/04
- [UPDATE] Top Senate GOP super PAC pauses new North Carolina ads and moves money to defend KansasCBS News · 10/03
- Democrats have spent or reserved $73 million since August in GOP House seats Trump won by 10+Axios · 10/03
- Trump leaves open invoking the Insurrection Act around the midtermsCNN · 10/03
- Trump rallies in Alabama during his late midterm campaign pushCBS News · 10/03
- Talarico and Paxton wage a tightening Texas Senate campaignThe Hill · 10/03
- Trump's Middle East military buildup becomes a midterm issueCBS News · 10/03
- Democrats’ prospects of winning the Senate improveThe Atlantic · 09/30
- Trump begins an intensive final-month midterm campaign swing focused on the economyReuters · 09/30
control
PM90.50%0.0pp
KS90.15%+0.0pp
PM64.5%+2.0pp
KS62.5%+0.5pp
pulling the live board…
notes
Trader-implied prices, not polls and not forecasts. A “split” tag means the two books name different leaders — nothing here averages them into a winner; the narrow row’s “avg” is the same mean the bars print. Rows open for the week chart and market links. Dated reading: Oct 15, 8:54 PM CT. Comparison baseline: October 15, 2026.
October 17, 2026October 16, 2026October 15, 2026October 14, 2026October 13, 2026October 12, 2026October 11, 2026October 10, 2026
Coverage: 21 of 22 races have both books naming the same leader.