U.S. gasoline averaged $4.48 a gallon on Sunday, Sept. 20, according to AAA, cited by The Hill.
On Sept. 18, Trump said he faced a decision on whether to annihilate Iran’s regime.
ContextIran warned the United States and its allies against further escalation on Sept. 20, according to [Reuters](https://reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iran-warns-against-new-escalation-by-us-allies-2026-09-20).
Qatar's central bank governor said on Sept. 20 that damaged liquefied natural gas export facilities could take two to three years to repair.
The cost of imported crude oil includes transportation and insurance, which refiners pay before gasoline reaches stations, according to the Energy Information Administration.
ContextThe cost of imported crude oil includes transportation and insurance, which refiners pay before gasoline reaches stations, according to the [Energy Information Administration](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/feature/price-comparison092012_article.pdf). Strikes in March 2026 disabled 17% of Qatar’s capacity to export liquefied natural gas (gas chilled into liquid for shipping). [QatarEnergy initially estimated that repairs would take three to five years](https://www.hydrocarbonprocessing.com/news/2026/03/iran-attacks-wipe-out-17-of-qatar-s-lng-capacity-for-up-to-five-years/), meaning the damage went beyond a shipping interruption.
Houthi official Mohamed al-Bukhaiti says the group will keep targeting Saudi Arabia while honoring its pledge not to attack U.S. vessels.
- Sept. 9 — Houthi attacks wounded 73 people across four Saudi cities and halted Aramco’s Jazan refinery, which processes 400,000 barrels a day. - Sept. 10 — Brent crude (an international benchmark for oil prices) exceeded $100 a barrel, up from near $99; U.S. diesel reached $5.94 a gallon. - Sept. 11–12 — Houthis captured Mokha and Perim island beside the Bab el-Mandeb passage connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. - Sept. 16 — Aramco suspended oil loadings at Yanbu and cancelled September cargoes. - Sept. 19 — Air-raid sirens sounded in Riyadh for the first time since fighting escalated in July; a fire appeared near its airport.
ContextOman’s May 6, 2025 agreement ended U.S. bombing in exchange for a mutual pledge against attacks, including on American ships. It offered Saudi Arabia no protection. The Saudi-led coalition counted 430 Houthi ballistic missiles (weapons that follow an arc toward their targets) fired at the kingdom from 2015 through December 2021. That is the last published cumulative total, not a count of the renewed campaign.
Trump repeatedly asked Ukraine to stop striking Russian refineries, citing higher diesel prices, a person familiar with their call told Axios.
- Sept. 5–6 — U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner visited Moscow and Kyiv with a peace proposal; temporary pauses in fighting protected the visits. - Sept. 9 — Russia resumed strikes on Kyiv, killing seven people that day, after the envoys left without an agreement. - Sept. 15 — Trump announced an energy truce (a halt to attacks on energy sites); Ukraine said its halt depended on Russia stopping attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. - Sept. 17–19 — Congress sent Trump legislation authorizing tariffs (taxes on imports) on buyers of Russian oil. He signed it, also requiring sanctions (government penalties) on Russian officials.
ContextOn Sept. 15, Zelensky offered to halt strikes on Russian oil exports if Russia spared Ukraine’s energy facilities, critical infrastructure and food routes, [Xinhua reported](https://www.chinadailyasia.com/hk/article/639581). Russia had not agreed as of Sept. 16, according to [Euronews](https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/09/16/ukraine-ready-for-energy-ceasefire-but-russia-has-yet-to-agree-zelenskyy-says). The U.S. average retail diesel price was $6.29 per gallon on Sept. 14, 2026, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s diesel price chart (series EMD_EPD2D_PTE_NUS_DPG).
Donald Trump will host Xi Jinping at the White House for a summit and state dinner Thursday, Sept. 24.
On Sept. 19, Trump planned to greet Xi personally. Preparations for the leaders' meeting covered artificial intelligence and tariffs (taxes on imports) on liquefied natural gas and autos.
ContextThe U.S. extended 178 product exemptions from additional China tariffs, moving their expiration from Nov. 29, 2025, to Nov. 10, 2026, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR). The extension keeps relief in place for specified goods without changing the separate underlying tariffs. Electrical machinery and equipment accounted for 29.8% of imports from China; machinery, including computers, accounted for 26.8%; and furniture, bedding, and toys accounted for 15.3% (U.S. Census Bureau, BEA end-use estimates). These were the top import sectors. BASELINE FACTS FROM PUBLIC DATA - Partner country: China. - Bilateral trade data: U.S. trade with China — U.S. Census Bureau Foreign Trade Division. - Top sectors as shares of imports from China: Electrical machinery and equipment (29.8%), Machinery (incl. computers) (26.8%), Furniture, bedding, and toys (15.3%). - Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) end-use estimates.
Bayer selected the least protective option for one restriction and the middle of three protection levels for another.
Dicamba can turn into vapor for several days after spraying and drift through the air, damaging neighboring crops, according to EPA. EPA pesticides chief Kyle Kunkler previously lobbied for the American Soybean Association, which advocated restoring this dicamba use, according to a March 25, 2026, Senate letter.
ContextDicamba can turn into vapor for several days after spraying and drift through the air, damaging neighboring crops, according to [EPA](https://www.epa.gov/ingredients-used-pesticide-products/registration-dicamba-use-dicamba-tolerant-crops). EPA pesticides chief Kyle Kunkler previously lobbied for the American Soybean Association, which advocated restoring this dicamba use, according to a [March 25, 2026, Senate letter](https://www.schiff.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/EPA-letter-on-OCSPP-recusals.pdf).
Houthi official Mohamed al-Bukhaiti says the group will keep targeting Saudi Arabia while honoring its pledge not to attack U.S. vessels.
The attacks. Saudi Arabia reported no casualties after intercepting a missile aimed at its capital on Saturday, Sept. 19. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis also claimed to have targeted Aramco oil facilities in Yanbu. A fire was reported near Riyadh’s airport, but its cause has not been established. The reporting does not confirm that a missile hit the fuel depot. Oil prices rose following the attack, Reuters reported.
The U.S. warning. The State Department urged Americans across the Middle East to prepare for possible flight cancellations, airspace closures and other travel disruption. Americans outside the region should reconsider travel there. This was a travel warning, not an evacuation order. Washington Examiner
Catch upwhat happened before · 9 earlier issues
Sept. 9 — Houthi attacks wounded 73 people across four Saudi cities and halted Aramco’s Jazan refinery, which processes 400,000 barrels a day.
Sept. 10 — Brent crude (an international benchmark for oil prices) exceeded $100 a barrel, up from near $99; U.S. diesel reached $5.94 a gallon.
Sept. 11–12 — Houthis captured Mokha and Perim island beside the Bab el-Mandeb passage connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
Sept. 16 — Aramco suspended oil loadings at Yanbu and cancelled September cargoes.
Sept. 19 — Air-raid sirens sounded in Riyadh for the first time since fighting escalated in July; a fire appeared near its airport.
Trump repeatedly asked Ukraine to stop striking Russian refineries, citing higher diesel prices, a person familiar with their call told Axios.
The talks. U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed during their Sunday, Sept. 20 call to meet at the United Nations’ annual gathering of world leaders. Ukraine said it was prepared to take serious steps to reduce the fighting. The White House sought steps from both Russia and Ukraine to restart negotiations, Axios reported.
The attacks. Ukraine said it launched more than 1,000 drones overnight into Sept. 20. Two people were reported killed and 20 wounded in the wider Moscow region during the attacks, according to PBS NewsHour/AP.
Catch upwhat happened before · 18 earlier issues
Sept. 5–6 — U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner visited Moscow and Kyiv with a peace proposal; temporary pauses in fighting protected the visits.
Sept. 9 — Russia resumed strikes on Kyiv, killing seven people that day, after the envoys left without an agreement.
Sept. 15 — Trump announced an energy truce (a halt to attacks on energy sites); Ukraine said its halt depended on Russia stopping attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
Sept. 17–19 — Congress sent Trump legislation authorizing tariffs (taxes on imports) on buyers of Russian oil. He signed it, also requiring sanctions (government penalties) on Russian officials.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng opened talks in New York on Sunday, Sept. 20.
The talks covered trade commitments, artificial intelligence and critical minerals. Bessent described the discussions as “focused, fulsome and constructive.” President Donald Trump will host Chinese President Xi Jinping at the White House for a summit and state dinner Thursday, Sept. 24.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Washington would monitor existing commitments while seeking better access to China's market for American farmers, manufacturers and workers.
Still open. Both sides are considering whether to extend their trade truce (a temporary pause in their trade dispute); neither government has announced extension terms.
On Sept. 19, Trump planned to greet Xi personally. Preparations for the leaders' meeting covered artificial intelligence and tariffs (taxes on imports) on liquefied natural gas and autos.
Quick bites9
Trump requests plan giving outside panel veto power over NIH research grants
NIH grants would need unanimous panel approval, including from budget director Russell Vought and NIH director Jay Bhattacharya, The Guardian reports. NIH now assesses proposals on scientific merit.
Trump proposes an ‘AI Force,’ opposes new restrictions and calls AI danger warnings a ‘hoax’.
The man remained hospitalized in serious but stable condition; Austin police and the Texas Rangers will jointly investigate the shooting. The excerpt does not say when it happened, what preceded it or whether it occurred during an immigration enforcement operation.
Some state attorneys general haven't agreed to settle Paramount's proposed $111 billion Warner Bros. acquisition.
Grassley sought cheaper fuel for farmers and truckers as Sunday’s diesel average hit $6.51 a gallon, up more than 40 cents in a week and from $3.70 a year earlier.
On Sept. 18, diesel reached $6.40 a gallon, while gasoline hit $4.44.
18 suspects in Haitian president’s assassination flown to U.S. for trial
U.S. prosecutors say 30 people have been indicted in Jovenel Moïse’s 2021 killing. Investigations into those who financed or facilitated it will continue, they say.
North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles into waters off its east coast Sunday.
WASHINGTON EXAMINER: Several House Republican candidates removed Trump references from their campaign websites.
Maria Elvira Salazar (Rep-R Florida) also said in a campaign ad that some of Trump's immigration enforcement efforts had gone ‘too far.’
Elections22 racesShowHide
The midterms · 43 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 93%, Kalshi 91%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 61%, Kalshi 60%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
U.S. House — Democrats take it, 91.1–92.5%
0% Dem50%100% Dem
7d agotoday
93%91%chance Democrats take it · 1.4pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 93% and Kalshi 91%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 59.5–60.5%
0% Dem50%100% Dem
7d agotoday
61%60%chance Democrats take it · 1.0pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 61% and Kalshi 60%.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
two venues, priced separately
shaded = how far apart they are
50% — control flips here
where it stood 7 days ago
the last 7 days, on its own scale
week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 1.4pp gap / 1.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
PolymarketU.S. House · todayWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Democratic control93%
Republican, implied7%
volume$6.9M
7-day move+6.0pp
KalshiU.S. House · todayWill Democrats win the House in 2026?
Democratic control91%
Republican, implied9%
volume12M contracts
bid / ask91% / 91%
7-day move+5.1pp
PolymarketU.S. Senate · todayWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Democratic control61%
Republican, implied39%
volume$2.8M
7-day move+2.0pp
KalshiU.S. Senate · todayWill Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?
Democratic control60%
Republican, implied40%
volume4.1M contracts
bid / ask59% / 60%
7-day move+10pp
Probability that Democrats control each chamber, as each venue prices it, by day.
Day
U.S. House · Polymarket
U.S. House · Kalshi
U.S. Senate · Polymarket
U.S. Senate · Kalshi
7 days ago
87%
86%
59%
49%
6 days ago
89%
86%
59%
52%
5 days ago
90%
86%
60%
55%
4 days ago
90%
89%
61%
56%
3 days ago
91%
90%
61%
59%
2 days ago
93%
89%
61%
59%
yesterday
93%
90%
61%
60%
today
93%
91%
61%
60%
3 closest races
rOhio SenateSherrod Brown 55.5%▲1.2Jon Husted 45.0%
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT widest venue gap 2.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 56% · Jon Husted 45%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT widest venue gap 4.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 56% · Aaron Ford 44%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT widest venue gap 2.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 56.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 57% · Vivek Ramaswamy 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead after Sullivan lost about nine points in six days.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT widest venue gap 1.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 74.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 26.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 74% · Dan Sullivan 26%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT widest venue gap 1.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.50%, Kalshi 93.45%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 5.75%, Kalshi 6.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 93% · Mike Collins 6.7%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT widest venue gap 1.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 60.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 61% · Josh Turek 40%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT widest venue gap 3.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 33.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 68% · Susan Collins 33%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about six points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT widest venue gap 0.5pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 66.5%, Kalshi 66.0%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 34.5%, Kalshi 34.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 66% · Mike Rogers 35%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 68.0%, Kalshi 68.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 68% · Dan Osborn 32%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT widest venue gap 2.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 82.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 82% · John E. Sununu 18%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Every sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT.
Day
Chris Pappas · Polymarket
Chris Pappas · Kalshi
John E. Sununu · Polymarket
John E. Sununu · Kalshi
7 days ago
80.5%
85.0%
17.5%
16.0%
6 days ago
82.0%
82.0%
18.5%
18.0%
5 days ago
84.0%
82.0%
16.5%
19.0%
4 days ago
80.5%
82.0%
19.5%
19.0%
3 days ago
80.5%
80.0%
19.5%
20.0%
2 days ago
80.5%
84.0%
19.5%
18.0%
yesterday
80.5%
84.0%
19.5%
18.0%
today
80.5%
82.5%
19.5%
17.5%
These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
vNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 93.05%▲1.7Whatley 7.22%
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT widest venue gap 1.4pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 93.5%, Kalshi 92.6%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 6.50%, Kalshi 7.95%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.4pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 93% · Michael Whatley 7.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Democratic side holds a clear lead after the Republican side lost about seven points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT widest venue gap 1.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: James Talarico 60% · Ken Paxton 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Wilson holds a clear lead, but no race here has moved more this week: it is down about fourteen points.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT widest venue gap 1.5pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 11.0%, Kalshi 12.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 0.15%, Kalshi 0.35%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 11% · Tom Begich 0.3%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT widest venue gap 0.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.5%, Kalshi 87.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 88% · Andy Biggs 13%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT widest venue gap 1.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 79.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 20.5%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 80% · David Jolly 21%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT widest venue gap 4.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 57% · Rick Jackson 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contract
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT widest venue gap 2.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 77.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 23.5%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 79% · Zach Lahn 22%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT widest venue gap 0.5pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 92.00%, Kalshi 91.45%; John James (R): Polymarket 8.5%, Kalshi 8.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 92% · John James 8.3%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT widest venue gap 1.6pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.50%, Kalshi 92.85%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 6.50%, Kalshi 7.15%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.6pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 93% · Bruce Blakeman 7.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT widest venue gap 0.6pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.60%, Kalshi 96.95%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.6%, Kalshi 3.2%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 97% · Stacy Garrity 3.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Republican side holds a commanding lead after losing about four points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT widest venue gap 1.5pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 78.05%, Kalshi 79.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 20.5%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 79% · Gina Hinojosa 21%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT widest venue gap 2.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 83.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 15.5%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 84% · Tom Tiffany 17%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Every sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT.
Day
David Crowley · Polymarket
David Crowley · Kalshi
Tom Tiffany · Polymarket
Tom Tiffany · Kalshi
7 days ago
83.5%
81.0%
16.5%
19.0%
6 days ago
83.5%
80.0%
16.5%
20.0%
5 days ago
83.5%
80.0%
16.5%
21.0%
4 days ago
83.5%
80.0%
15.5%
19.0%
3 days ago
83.5%
82.0%
15.5%
20.0%
2 days ago
83.5%
81.0%
15.5%
20.0%
yesterday
83.5%
85.0%
15.5%
16.0%
today
83.5%
83.5%
15.5%
17.5%
These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
The restrictions were intended to limit dicamba evaporating into the air and washing off fields.
EPA asked Bayer to select restrictions on its dicamba weedkiller, then used the company’s choices in a proposed rule. Internal documents released in litigation reveal the exchange, the Guardian reported on Sept. 20, 2026. EPA defended the process, saying companies may suggest protections but ‘the registrant does not dictate terms.’
Where it stands. EPA’s current approval permits spraying dicamba on growing cotton and soybeans during the 2026 and 2027 growing seasons; other uses were already allowed. EPA’s approval explanation. The material provided does not establish whether the current approval retained Bayer’s choices from the proposed rule.
17 stories that didn't make the cutSeen by the desk, ranked, and not run. The number is where each stood in the day's order.ShowHide
6Fed raises benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00% in 12–0 voteThe average 30-year mortgage rate reached 6.95% in the week ended Sept. 17, its highest level in more than a year and a half.
12U.S. military says it killed four aboard an alleged Caribbean drug-smuggling boat
42Community and voter opposition grows toward AI data-center constructionCommunity and voter opposition grows toward AI data-center construction
43Tariffs, trade disputes and inflation squeeze American farmersTariffs, trade disputes and inflation squeeze American farmers
44Wall Street expects heavy short-term Treasury issuance as borrowing costs riseWall Street expects heavy short-term Treasury issuance as borrowing costs rise
45Trump family AI investments raise conflict-of-interest questionsTrump family AI investments raise conflict-of-interest questions
46US-Denmark Greenland security deal opens opportunities for American businessUS-Denmark Greenland security deal opens opportunities for American business
47World leaders gather for a UN General Assembly shaped by wars and notable absencesWorld leaders gather for a UN General Assembly shaped by wars and notable absences
48BLS publishes August 2026 consumer-price dataBLS publishes August 2026 consumer-price data
49South Korea prepares a legislative briefing on its US investment projectSouth Korea prepares a legislative briefing on its US investment project
50Trump and New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani schedule a meetingTrump and New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani schedule a meeting
51Congress debates AI risks without advancing comprehensive legislationCongress debates AI risks without advancing comprehensive legislation
52Companies pay for opportunities to meet with RFK Jr.Companies pay for opportunities to meet with RFK Jr.
53Rising premiums leave some health-care workers without insuranceRising premiums leave some health-care workers without insurance
54Coal miners face rising black-lung disease and delays in obtaining benefitsCoal miners face rising black-lung disease and delays in obtaining benefits
55Wall Street expects heavy short-term Treasury issuance as borrowing costs rise
56Companies pay for opportunities to meet with RFK Jr.
