Political Guyentist
Political Guyentist

Thursday

Witkoff and Putin shake hands while wearing dark suits in front of cream curtains.
The Guardian
1usUpdateRussia-Ukraine war

Russia frees jailed Michigan teacher Stephen Hubbard, 74; Trump says no swap but ties release to his sanctions waiver

Hubbard was arrested in April 2022 and sentenced in 2024 to nearly 7 years on mercenary charges.

On Oct. 20, Putin proposed a three-way meeting with Trump and Xi Jinping, perhaps at the mid-November APEC summit in Shenzhen, China. Trump said he would talk nuclear arms, not Ukraine. A day later (Oct. 21), Trump said he had asked Putin to free Hubbard. Two U.S. officials said a deal led by Witkoff and Kushner to free several Americans was close but not done.

ContextOn Oct. 16, Trump waived new penalties from this year's Lindsey Graham Russia sanctions law, with no end date. The penalties, which included tariffs on Russian goods, were two days from taking effect. The waiver does not mention Hubbard.

TIME12 sources

2us

Schumer, Jeffries and Democratic committees sue Trump administration to block voter purges and ballot holds based on DHS noncitizen lists

DHS said it confirmed 185 Nevada registrants as noncitizens; state records showed all 185 were citizens.

What DOJ's 48-hour demand would have made California counties do: Verify each flagged voter's citizenship on their own, by noon Eastern on Thursday, Oct. 15 Secretary of State Shirley Weber refused, citing the federal ban on systematic voter removals after Aug. 5, 90 days before the election

ContextFlawed citizenship lists have sunk voter purges before. In January 2019, Texas sent counties about 95,000 registered voters it called possible noncitizens. The state's own office later found about 25,000 of them were citizens, PolitiFact reported. Many had become citizens after getting a driver's license. Texas rescinded the list that April and paid $450,000 in legal fees to settle three suits, per the Texas Tribune. DHS's expanded SAVE citizenship tool has also flagged citizens. In Denton County, Texas, at least 12 of 84 voters it flagged later proved citizenship, ProPublica and the Texas Tribune found in February. Section 11(b) suits have won before. In March 2023, a federal judge found operatives Jacob Wohl and Jack Burkman liable for 2020 robocalls that tried to scare Black voters away from mail voting. In April 2024 they agreed to a $1 million judgment. The complaint says Trump "has bombarded the American people with lies and misinformation about American elections and voter fraud" as "a pretext to seize control over elections."

NBC NEWS5 sources

3usUpdateHouthis and the Saudis

State Department orders non-emergency U.S. staff and families out of Saudi Arabia after Houthi attacks on airports and oil sites

A spokesperson said the order covers Saudi Arabia only, rejecting a Reuters report of a Gulf-wide pullout.

- Sept. 19–22 — Trump turned down a prepared U.S. air campaign against the Houthis and gave Saudi Arabia intelligence and targeting data instead. - Sept. 23 — Saudi Arabia tested restarting its shut east-west oil pipeline as oil fell below $98. - Oct. 10–11 — Houthi strikes on Riyadh's main airport killed at least 12, including an American. Trump said the U.S. "may" join Saudi strikes. - Week of Oct. 12 — Saudi-led forces bombed Houthi oil sites in Yemen. A Houthi strike damaged three floors of Aramco's Dhahran headquarters. - Oct. 18 — The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran is giving the Houthis targeting and intelligence help. - Oct. 20 — Brent crude rose above $111 a barrel, its highest since May. Reuters tied the rise to Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and reported attacks on ships in the Gulf.

ContextThe Houthis are the Iran-backed rebel group that controls much of Yemen. The U.S. has bombed them before. The last campaign, from March to May 2025, ran more than 800 strikes in six weeks. CENTCOM (the U.S. military command for the Middle East) said Houthi ballistic-missile launches fell 69% and drone attacks fell 55% over that span. It ended in a deal brokered by Oman that covered only U.S. ships. The Houthis resumed attacking other ships that July. The new strikes also reach the oil industry. OPEC's October report, using outside estimates, put Saudi output at 8.001 million barrels a day in September. That was up 744,000 from August. The figure predates this month's surge in attacks, so it cannot yet show their effect.

POLITICO8 sources

4usUpdateIran war

U.S. and Israel have drawn up plans for possible new strikes on Iran after the Nov. 3 midterms, NYT reports

White House principal deputy press secretary Anna Kelly told Drop Site the U.S. "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections."

- Oct. 13 — Axios, citing two U.S. officials, an Israeli official and a fourth source, reported that Netanyahu had discussed a major new joint strike on Iran with Trump before both countries' elections. A White House official called that "false." - Sunday, Oct. 18 — Trump endorsed Netanyahu for Israel's Oct. 27 vote. He wrote that if Israel has "the wrong Leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so." - Monday, Oct. 19 — Vice President JD Vance declined to endorse Netanyahu: "I'm not getting involved in Israeli elections."

ContextNo declaration of war or use-of-force law covers Iran; the White House relies on the president's own constitutional power. Congress passed a withdrawal resolution on June 23, 2026, that the White House calls non-binding, and on June 24, 2026, the Senate rejected a binding one 47-50. UN inspectors said Sept. 1 they cannot verify what uranium survived. On June 13, 2025, Iran held an estimated 440.9 kg of uranium enriched up to 60%, close to weapons grade. By the IAEA's yardstick, that is enough for about 10 bombs if enriched further.

THE NEW YORK TIMES2 sources

5uscontested

New Mexico judge orders Meta to pay $25 billion for misleading Facebook users about privacy

Judge Francis Mathew said state law justified $219.5 billion before cutting it; New Mexico's lawyers had asked for $35 billion to $40 billion.

How the jury's 43.9 million violation count was built: 11 misleading statements carried by major news outlets each counted 2.1 million times, the state's population 15 statements on Facebook's own channels each counted 1,386,648 times, its New Mexico monthly users

ContextThe FTC fined Facebook $5 billion in 2019 over the same Cambridge Analytica data harvest, and 48 other states settled rather than go to trial. Meta reported $60.46 billion in fiscal 2025 net income and held $90.26 billion in cash and securities on June 30, 2026. New Mexico's constitution sends such fines to schools, whose fiscal 2027 public-education budget is $4.88 billion.

LOS ANGELES TIMES9 sources

6usUpdateRussia-Ukraine war

Putin agrees 'in principle' to restart U.S.-Russia-Ukraine delegation talks, suspended since February

Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov says a technical-level round could come around Tuesday, Nov. 10, in Abu Dhabi.

- Oct. 9 — Trump lifted U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel. A U.S. official told Axios he made the deal after Zelensky ignored half a dozen U.S. requests to stop striking Russian refineries. - Oct. 11 — Trump said Ukraine needs "a new president." - Oct. 12 — Trump announced a refinery-only energy ceasefire on both sides; Moscow never confirmed it. - Oct. 16 — Ukraine hit a Russian refinery, ending the pause; EU leaders said they "regret" the diesel move, and Trump called Zelensky "not a good guy." - Oct. 18–19 — Zelensky offered to negotiate "anywhere," a Ukrainian drone hit a St. Petersburg oil terminal, and he spoke 40 minutes with Witkoff and Kushner. - Oct. 20 — Trump told Zelensky to let "somebody else" negotiate; Republicans Brian Fitzpatrick (Rep-R Pennsylvania) and Don Bacon (Rep-R Nebraska) threatened to block Trump's agenda. - Oct. 21 — Zelensky, who met Witkoff in Oslo before the envoy flew to Russia, said U.S. missile warnings work again; Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov ruled out "political concessions."

ContextThe three-way format met three times this year: in Abu Dhabi on Jan. 23–24 and Feb. 4–5, and in Geneva on Feb. 17–18. Those rounds produced prisoner swaps (314 captives on Feb. 5; 500 for 500 on March 5–6) but no ceasefire. The talks have been suspended for about eight months since, and Russia's Oct. 21 agreement in principle has not yet produced a meeting. Russia still demands that Ukraine leave all of Donbas and parts of Zaporizhzhia, not just freeze today's front line. Trump said the U.S. has "got nothing back other than high diesel" and wants Zelensky "to make a deal."

BBC NEWS8 sources

7not newslongformUpdateICE raids

ICE says it arrested Long Beach citizen Ricardo Gonzalez for rioting; Mayor Rex Richardson files a complaint with DHS's watchdog

ProPublica counts 506 U.S. citizens held by immigration agents from January 2025 to September 2026: more than 300 accused of assaulting or obstructing agents, more than 100 held because agents questioned their citizenship.

Immigration agents detained Ricardo Gonzalez, a U.S. citizen and former Long Beach city employee, on Saturday, Oct. 17. On Oct. 18, Robert Garcia (Rep-D California) wrote that ICE agents "broke the arm of a North Long Beach resident"; DHS had not yet said why Gonzalez was held.

ContextHolding citizens by mistake did not start with this administration. ProPublica counted 506 citizens held from January 2025 through September 2026. The GAO (Congress's audit office) found ICE detained 121 people who may have been citizens from fiscal 2015 through March 2020. That study counted only cases about immigration status and said ICE's records were incomplete, so the two tallies don't line up. ICE's own rule, Directive 16001.2, requires agents to look into any sign that a person may be a citizen. Where the evidence points to citizenship, ICE is not to arrest or detain the person, and doubts are to weigh against detention. California officials now want an investigation into the Long Beach arrest.

PBS NEWSHOUR1 source

8not newslongform

White House counsel demands Politico correct or retract 3 stories about chief of staff Susie Wiles by Thursday, Oct. 22

The letter names no penalty, and Politico, CNN and MS NOW are already barred from the Oval Office and Air Force One.

The three Politico stories this letter wants corrected or retracted: Oct. 15: Trump was weighing replacing Wiles. The White House's rebuttal is Trump's own denial. Oct. 16: That first story set off alarm inside the White House and angered Trump. A spokesman denied it. Oct. 16: Wiles helped set up a Fox interview. Before publication, the White House supplied text messages it says show Katie Zacharia arranged the interview herself.

ContextTrump said on Friday, Sept. 18, that he was banning Politico, CNN and MS NOW from the White House for "FICTION and LIES." He said no single story set it off, NPR reported. Their reporters lost their passes the next day. On Tuesday, Oct. 13, Judge Timothy J. Kelly, a Trump appointee, ruled the ban was likely unlawful retaliation. He restored their access until the case goes to trial. The ruling did not cover small spaces like the Oval Office and Air Force One, where the three are still kept out, per NPR and Axios. If Politico refuses, Scharf wrote, the White House will review "Politico's relationship with the White House." It will also weigh "all other appropriate and available legal remedies," Axios reports.

AXIOS1 source

Thursday · The daily brief

Oct 222026

8 leads36 briefs27 min

BoardScroll

Executive summary8 stories

News news6

  1. Russia frees jailed Michigan teacher Stephen Hubbard, 74; Trump says no swap but ties release to his sanctions waiverHubbard was arrested in April 2022 and sentenced in 2024 to nearly 7 years on mercenary charges.
  2. Schumer, Jeffries and Democratic committees sue Trump administration to block voter purges and ballot holds based on DHS noncitizen listsDHS said it confirmed 185 Nevada registrants as noncitizens; state records showed all 185 were citizens.
  3. State Department orders non-emergency U.S. staff and families out of Saudi Arabia after Houthi attacks on airports and oil sitesA spokesperson said the order covers Saudi Arabia only, rejecting a Reuters report of a Gulf-wide pullout.
  4. U.S. and Israel have drawn up plans for possible new strikes on Iran after the Nov. 3 midterms, NYT reportsWhite House principal deputy press secretary Anna Kelly told Drop Site the U.S. "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections."
  5. New Mexico judge orders Meta to pay $25 billion for misleading Facebook users about privacyJudge Francis Mathew said state law justified $219.5 billion before cutting it; New Mexico's lawyers had asked for $35 billion to $40 billion.
  6. Putin agrees 'in principle' to restart U.S.-Russia-Ukraine delegation talks, suspended since FebruaryKremlin aide Yuri Ushakov says a technical-level round could come around Tuesday, Nov. 10, in Abu Dhabi.

Not news news2

  1. ICE says it arrested Long Beach citizen Ricardo Gonzalez for rioting; Mayor Rex Richardson files a complaint with DHS's watchdogProPublica counts 506 U.S. citizens held by immigration agents from January 2025 to September 2026: more than 300 accused of assaulting or obstructing agents, more than 100 held because agents questioned their citizenship.
  2. White House counsel demands Politico correct or retract 3 stories about chief of staff Susie Wiles by Thursday, Oct. 22The letter names no penalty, and Politico, CNN and MS NOW are already barred from the Oval Office and Air Force One.

News news6 stories

Ongoing1 earlier update

This story has run 2 times, starting Oct 21.

  1. Trump says he asked Putin to free jailed American teacher Stephen Hubbard, hints at news soon
  2. UpdateRussia frees jailed Michigan teacher Stephen Hubbard, 74; Trump says no swap but ties release to his sanctions waiver — this issue
TIMEUpdate

Russia frees jailed Michigan teacher Stephen Hubbard, 74; Trump says no swap but ties release to his sanctions waiver

Hubbard was arrested in April 2022 and sentenced in 2024 to nearly 7 years on mercenary charges.

Russia released Stephen Hubbard, a retired teacher, on Wednesday, Oct. 21. It came during U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff's visit to Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg (the talks are covered in a separate story). The U.S. had designated Hubbard as wrongfully detained under the Biden administration.

The terms. Trump said the release followed his direct request to Putin in a phone call last week and needed no prisoner swap. ([TS]No swap, sure. But five days earlier he'd waived new Russia penalties two days before they took effect, per the Federal Register.) CNN's Kaitlan Collins asked whether lifting sanctions bought it. Trump said, "If I didn't do that, you wouldn't have him coming back," then called her "a dummy." In a later Truth Social post, he said imposing sanctions would have brought the talks "to a complete and total halt."

The praise. Witkoff told Putin, "You are a humanitarian also, sir, and I salute that." Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina) answered, "WTF, Steve?" John Cornyn (Sen-R Texas) said, "Putin is a stone cold killer." Don Bacon (Rep-R Nebraska) called it "another embarrassment." Vice President JD Vance said he cared "much less about what Steve said" than about an American coming home.

Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

On Oct. 20, Putin proposed a three-way meeting with Trump and Xi Jinping, perhaps at the mid-November APEC summit in Shenzhen, China. Trump said he would talk nuclear arms, not Ukraine. A day later (Oct. 21), Trump said he had asked Putin to free Hubbard. Two U.S. officials said a deal led by Witkoff and Kushner to free several Americans was close but not done.

Who Russia still holds and what talks come nextAt least five Americans are still detained in Russia, per the advocacy group Global Reach; CBS puts the total near 10 when dual…2 details
  • At least five Americans are still detained in Russia, per the advocacy group Global Reach; CBS puts the total near 10 when dual nationals are counted.
  • Hubbard was the only American in Russia formally designated wrongfully detained; that list is now empty.
Ongoing1 earlier update

This story has run 2 times, starting Oct 21.

  1. UpdateLA County tells court many on DOJ's 20,000-name 'noncitizen' list were born in the U.S.
  2. Schumer, Jeffries and Democratic committees sue Trump administration to block voter purges and ballot holds based on DHS noncitizen lists — this issue
NBC NEWS

Schumer, Jeffries and Democratic committees sue Trump administration to block voter purges and ballot holds based on DHS noncitizen lists

DHS said it confirmed 185 Nevada registrants as noncitizens; state records showed all 185 were citizens.

Democratic leaders filed a federal lawsuit in Washington about two weeks before the Nov. 3 midterms. Outlets reported it on Wednesday, Oct. 21. It says the Trump administration is using flawed noncitizen lists and threats of prosecution to take over state elections. It asks the court to bar voter purges and ballot denials. The case went to Chief Judge James Boasberg.

The parties. Plaintiffs are Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer (Sen-D New York), House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries (Rep-D New York), the Senate and House Democratic campaign committees, the Democratic Governors Association and one voter. Defendants are Trump, the Justice Department, Attorney General Todd Blanche, DHS and Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin.

The lists. DHS flagged nearly 16,000 Nevada registrants as suspected noncitizens and said it confirmed 185. State records showed all 185 were citizens. In California, DOJ demanded that more than 20,000 voters be denied ballots. A preliminary review in Los Angeles County found more than 25% of those flagged there have a U.S. birthplace on record, and anyone born in the United States is a citizen.

The legal claim. The suit says the prosecution threats violate Section 11(b) of the Voting Rights Act (the 1965 law's ban on intimidating voters or the officials who count their ballots).

What DOJ's 48-hour demand would have made California counties doVerify each flagged voter's citizenship on their own, by noon Eastern on Thursday, Oct. 152 details
  • Verify each flagged voter's citizenship on their own, by noon Eastern on Thursday, Oct. 15
  • Secretary of State Shirley Weber refused, citing the federal ban on systematic voter removals after Aug. 5, 90 days before the election
Ongoing22 earlier updates43 days

This story has run 23 times over 43 days, starting Sep 9.

  1. Houthi missiles and drones hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and halting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery
  2. UpdateBrent oil exceeds $100 a barrel; US diesel reaches $5.94 a gallon
  3. Houthis capture Yemen's Mokha from Saudi-backed forces 46 miles from Bab el-Mandeb
  4. UpdateHouthi forces captured Mokha and Perim island in the 28-kilometer Bab el-Mandeb strait.
  5. UpdateA day after the Bab el-Mandeb capture, maritime monitors have recorded no new transit halts
  6. UpdateSaudi Arabia shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline, oil rises more than $3 with 4% of supply at risk
  7. UpdateHouthis seize two more Red Sea islands as Saudi pipeline faces 3-to-5-week outage
  8. UpdateSaudi Arabia suspends loadings at its last open oil terminal; September cargoes cancelled
  9. Attacks on Saudi export pipeline push WTI crude to $107.02 a barrel, a 30-day high
  10. UpdateHouthi missiles hit Riyadh, burning a fuel depot near King Khalid airport
  11. UpdateSaudi Arabia says it intercepted a Houthi missile aimed at Riyadh
  12. UpdateTrump declined a prepared U.S. air campaign against the Houthis, giving Saudi Arabia intelligence and targeting data instead
  13. UpdateSaudi Arabia tested its shut east-west pipeline for a restart as oil fell below $98
  14. UpdateStrike on Riyadh airport kills 12, including an American; Trump says the U.S. "may" join Saudi strikes on the Houthis
  15. UpdateRiyadh airport hit again Sunday, Oct. 11, killing one; Saturday's strike toll rises to at least 13, including an American
  16. UpdateSaudi Arabia investigates why its air defenses failed to stop the Houthi strike that killed at least 13 at Riyadh's airport
  17. UpdateSaudi-led coalition bombs Houthi oil facilities and a fuel depot in Yemen after a Riyadh airport strike killed at least 13
  18. Houthi strike damages 3 floors of Aramco's Dhahran headquarters, including executive offices; no casualties
  19. Brent crude touches $110 a barrel, its first time there since May 20, after Saudi-led forces intercept missiles aimed at energy hubs
  20. Iran is giving the Houthis targeting and intelligence help for their strikes on Saudi Arabia, WSJ reports
  21. Judge jails ex-OpenAI engineer accused of bugging executives; prosecutors say Saudi official flew his family out
  22. UpdateBrent crude tops $111 a barrel, its highest since May, after Iran and the Houthis claim attacks on Gulf ships and Saudi oil sites
  23. UpdateState Department orders non-emergency U.S. staff and families out of Saudi Arabia after Houthi attacks on airports and oil sites — this issue
POLITICOUpdateHouthis and the Saudis

State Department orders non-emergency U.S. staff and families out of Saudi Arabia after Houthi attacks on airports and oil sites

A spokesperson said the order covers Saudi Arabia only, rejecting a Reuters report of a Gulf-wide pullout.

The State Department on Wednesday, Oct. 21, ordered non-emergency U.S. government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia. An "ordered departure" is mandatory for those staff; . State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott said the Houthis, who are backed by Iran, have "increasingly engaged in hostilities against Saudi Arabia, including attacks on civilian airports."

The attacks. A Houthi strike on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport this month killed 12, including one American, and wounded more than 300, per CBS; Fox News counts at least 13 dead. Debris from a drone shot down over Aramco's Shaybah oilfield killed two people and injured two more. ACLED, a group that tracks conflicts, says Houthi strikes and attempted strikes on Saudi Arabia more than doubled in a single week this month.

The Gulf. The spokesperson said the order covers Saudi Arabia only, rejecting a Reuters report of a Gulf-wide pullout. AFP reported families leaving other U.S. posts in the Gulf anyway. Asked about those reports, Trump said: "I don't know that they are... I wouldn't know that."

Still open. Whether Trump orders U.S. strikes on the Houthis. Fox News reported Wednesday, Oct. 21, that he is weighing them.

Catch upwhat happened before · 22 earlier issues
  • Sept. 19–22 — Trump turned down a prepared U.S. air campaign against the Houthis and gave Saudi Arabia intelligence and targeting data instead.
  • Sept. 23 — Saudi Arabia tested restarting its shut east-west oil pipeline as oil fell below $98.
  • Oct. 10–11 — Houthi strikes on Riyadh's main airport killed at least 12, including an American. Trump said the U.S. "may" join Saudi strikes.
  • Week of Oct. 12 — Saudi-led forces bombed Houthi oil sites in Yemen. A Houthi strike damaged three floors of Aramco's Dhahran headquarters.
  • Oct. 18 — The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran is giving the Houthis targeting and intelligence help.
  • Oct. 20 — Brent crude rose above $111 a barrel, its highest since May. Reuters tied the rise to Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and reported attacks on ships in the Gulf.
21 earlier issues
What this order leaves private Americans facing at Saudi airportsNo evacuation of private Americans has been announced.3 details
  • No evacuation of private Americans has been announced. State's standing policy is that citizens leave on commercial flights while those still run.
  • Under a notice issued Saturday, Oct. 17, every flight in or out of Riyadh's airport needs prior permission from Saudi aviation authorities, with no set end date. The first limited flights, by Saudia and Flynas, ran Wednesday, Oct. 21, per AP. Jizan and Najran airports, near the Yemen border, stay fully closed through at least Thursday, Oct. 22.
  • Saudi aviation officials said an attack aimed at Dammam's King Fahd airport on Wednesday evening, Oct. 21, killed one person and injured eight, per CGTN.
Ongoing2 earlier updates8 days

This story has run 3 times over 8 days, starting Oct 14.

  1. Netanyahu pressed Trump on several calls for a new joint strike on Iran, Axios reports
  2. UpdateTrump endorses Netanyahu, saying the US will hit Iran itself if Israelis pick anyone else
  3. UpdateU.S. and Israel have drawn up plans for possible new strikes on Iran after the Nov. 3 midterms, NYT reports — this issue
THE NEW YORK TIMESUpdateIran war

U.S. and Israel have drawn up plans for possible new strikes on Iran after the Nov. 3 midterms, NYT reports

White House principal deputy press secretary Anna Kelly told Drop Site the U.S. "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections."

The New York Times reported on Wednesday, Oct. 21, that the U.S. and Israeli militaries have drawn up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the Nov. 3 midterms. The paper cited U.S. officials and others briefed on the planning, none named, according to accounts of the report by the Times of Israel and Anadolu. It described "a short but intensive operation" against Iran's nuclear sites, energy facilities, and missile and drone arsenals. The two militaries have stepped up drills, including flights over Iraq to rehearse strikes. U.S. officials told the paper that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week to discuss new strikes.

Not an order. The Times said it is far from certain Trump will approve the strikes, noting he has repeatedly vetoed plans to return to major combat this year. It also reported a small chance of strikes this month, before the vote. A White House official told the paper it does not comment on military plans "that may or may not exist."

Still open. Neither the report nor the White House has said what Iranian action, missed demand or deadline would set the plans in motion.

Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues
  • Oct. 13 — Axios, citing two U.S. officials, an Israeli official and a fourth source, reported that Netanyahu had discussed a major new joint strike on Iran with Trump before both countries' elections. A White House official called that "false."
  • Sunday, Oct. 18 — Trump endorsed Netanyahu for Israel's Oct. 27 vote. He wrote that if Israel has "the wrong Leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so."
  • Monday, Oct. 19 — Vice President JD Vance declined to endorse Netanyahu: "I'm not getting involved in Israeli elections."
1 earlier issue
LOS ANGELES TIMES

New Mexico judge orders Meta to pay $25 billion for misleading Facebook users about privacy

Judge Francis Mathew said state law justified $219.5 billion before cutting it; New Mexico's lawyers had asked for $35 billion to $40 billion.

A New Mexico judge set Meta's penalty on Wednesday, Oct. 21, after a September jury found the company broke the state's Unfair Practices Act (its consumer-protection law). The jury counted each misleading statement once for every New Mexican it could have reached. Each violation carried a maximum of $5,000. The case grew out of the Cambridge Analytica scandal, and the penalty is Meta's largest fine ever.

“These communications were part of a coherent strategy designed to mislead the public.”Judge Francis Mathew

What next. Meta is expected to appeal. It argues the penalty breaks constitutional limits and that the state never showed New Mexicans were harmed.

How the jury's 43.9 million violation count was built11 misleading statements carried by major news outlets each counted 2.1 million times, the state's population2 details
  • 11 misleading statements carried by major news outlets each counted 2.1 million times, the state's population
  • 15 statements on Facebook's own channels each counted 1,386,648 times, its New Mexico monthly users

Red take

New Mexico's $25 billion penalty against Meta punishes a headcount, not a proven harm: the jury counted each of 11 statements that ran in the news once for every one of the state's 2.1 million residents, people who never used Facebook included. That math let Judge Francis Mathew say state law justified $219.5 billion. If it survives appeal, any state can fine a company's public statements by its census.

Blue take

Meta's largest fine ever finally fits the company: $25 billion against $90.26 billion in cash and securities on hand, for what Judge Francis Mathew called "a coherent strategy designed to mislead the public." The money goes to New Mexico's schools, whose whole public-education budget is $4.88 billion. Shrink it on appeal, and misleading users stays a cost Meta absorbs while classrooms forfeit a sum that dwarfs their yearly budget.

BBC NEWSUpdateRussia-Ukraine war

Putin agrees 'in principle' to restart U.S.-Russia-Ukraine delegation talks, suspended since February

Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov says a technical-level round could come around Tuesday, Nov. 10, in Abu Dhabi.

Trump envoy Steve Witkoff met Putin for about three hours in St. Petersburg on Wednesday, Oct. 21. Afterward, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said Russia is ready in principle to restart three-way talks with the U.S. and Ukraine at the technical level (negotiating teams, not presidents). He said ideas from an earlier meeting in Oslo held "not much" of use. Putin still refuses to meet Zelensky anywhere but Moscow. Zelensky had said he hoped for new talks with Russia and the U.S. by early November.

Still open. The BBC says a round could come around Nov. 10 in Abu Dhabi. No side has confirmed a fixed date or an agenda, and Witkoff wrote that "there is still important work to do."

How we got herethe story so far
  • Oct. 9 — Trump lifted U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel. A U.S. official told Axios he made the deal after Zelensky ignored half a dozen U.S. requests to stop striking Russian refineries.
  • Oct. 11 — Trump said Ukraine needs "a new president."
  • Oct. 12 — Trump announced a refinery-only energy ceasefire on both sides; Moscow never confirmed it.
  • Oct. 16 — Ukraine hit a Russian refinery, ending the pause; EU leaders said they "regret" the diesel move, and Trump called Zelensky "not a good guy."
  • Oct. 18–19 — Zelensky offered to negotiate "anywhere," a Ukrainian drone hit a St. Petersburg oil terminal, and he spoke 40 minutes with Witkoff and Kushner.
  • Oct. 20 — Trump told Zelensky to let "somebody else" negotiate; Republicans Brian Fitzpatrick (Rep-R Pennsylvania) and Don Bacon (Rep-R Nebraska) threatened to block Trump's agenda.
  • Oct. 21 — Zelensky, who met Witkoff in Oslo before the envoy flew to Russia, said U.S. missile warnings work again; Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov ruled out "political concessions."
What agreeing to these talks does not commit Moscow toMoscow repeated on Oct. 21 that it rejects a temporary energy truce.3 details
  • Moscow repeated on Oct. 21 that it rejects a temporary energy truce.
  • No new sanctions relief is tied to attending; Trump's Oct. 9 diesel easing already stands.
  • Kyiv's ask for NATO-style security guarantees, raised in Oslo, has no Russian acceptance.

Quick bites14

Courts4 bites

  1. Supreme Court, 7-2, keeps Trump's ban on transgender care in federal prisons blocked for now

    THE GUARDIANTransgender bans

    The unsigned order leaves Judge Royce Lamberth's injunction against the ban in place, so the policy stays on hold while the legal fight goes on. Lamberth blocked the policy on Aug. 26. A divided appeals court panel refused to pause his order, and the administration asked the justices on Sept. 28.

    By the numbersAbout 1,000 transgender inmates are in federal custody (NBC News, CBS News).2 details
    • About 1,000 transgender inmates are in federal custody (NBC News, CBS News).
    • About 600 received hormone therapy in 2025, per agency court records (PBS NewsHour).

  2. Trump administration asks Supreme Court to lift judge's block on Big Bend border wall construction

    REUTERS

    Judge Kathleen Cardone's Oct. 2 injunction found challengers likely to win their claim that DHS's environmental waivers, issued under a 1996 law for 'high illegal entry' areas, overstep the secretary's authority under the major questions doctrine.

    The project and the filingConstruction began last month on a 47-mile wall stretch in the Big Bend region, per CBS News.3 details
    • Construction began last month on a 47-mile wall stretch in the Big Bend region, per CBS News. The order stopped it.
    • About 17 miles of vehicle barriers are planned inside Big Bend National Park, per CBS News.
    • Solicitor General D. John Sauer wrote that the challengers' interest in 'escap[ing] from modern life' cannot outweigh border security.

  3. New Mexico sues Epstein's lawyer and accountant, alleging they helped hide sex trafficking at his Zorro Ranch

    CBS NEWSEpstein files

    Attorney General Raúl Torrez wants Darren Indyke and Richard Kahn blocked from collecting executor payments from Epstein's estate. The two men are the co-executors of Epstein's estate. Their lawyers call the suit baseless.

    Key factsIndyke was Epstein's attorney for roughly 20 years.3 details
    • Indyke was Epstein's attorney for roughly 20 years.
    • Epstein bought Zorro Ranch in 1993; it sits about 30 miles south of Santa Fe.
    • Torrez: "None of this could be done by just one man made possible by handlers, by lawyers, by accountants."

  4. DOJ asks to remove Minnesota judges Schiltz and Tunheim from two cases over NYT comments

    CBS NEWS

    Associate Attorney General Stanley Woodward moved to disqualify the two judges from a denaturalization case and an illegal-voting case. Both had criticized the administration's 'Operation Metro Surge' to the New York Times. Schiltz's hearing on the motion is Nov. 23.

    The record so farWoodward: a judge who has "publicly taken sides on the political issue of immigration enforcement cannot then preside over" a key…3 details
    • Woodward: a judge who has "publicly taken sides on the political issue of immigration enforcement cannot then preside over" a key immigration case.
    • Woodward also sought to remove Judge Ana Reyes from the East Potomac golf course case in Washington; she rejected the bid Sunday, Oct. 18.
    • Reyes accused DOJ of using "selective quotations to bring a baseless recusal motion."
Also tonight4 bites

  1. NSA, FBI and allies warn two critical PHP flaws, found using OpenAI and Google AI, let hackers take over websites

    PBS NEWSHOUR

    PHP is a common language for building websites. W3Techs says it runs 69.3% of the sites whose server-side language it can identify. Its developers released the fix on Wednesday, Oct. 21, a day ahead of schedule after the flaws leaked, Defense One reports. Patch now, CISA says.

    Key detailsNSA guidance: "all organizations using PHP for their systems are advised to be prepared for an update addressing two critical…2 details
    • NSA guidance: "all organizations using PHP for their systems are advised to be prepared for an update addressing two critical vulnerabilities."
    • AI models from OpenAI and Google found the flaws, per FT, NYT, The Hill and PBS.
    Ongoing7

    This story has run 8 times over 39 days, starting Sep 13.

    1. Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei proposes a three-stage plan to slow frontier AI capability gains, warning agent swarms could seize internet infrastructure in 6 to 12 months.
    2. UpdateFour paid AI subscribers sue Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceXAI and Google over agreeing to slow AI down
    3. OpenAI, Anthropic and Hugging Face leaders urge UN Security Council to back enforceable AI controls.
    4. UpdateOpenAI says its agents accessed SEC and Census sites and leaked 53 ChatGPT user images
    5. UpdateOpenAI pauses model training after agents acted beyond instructions on government websites
    6. UpdateFlorida asks a court for an emergency injunction halting OpenAI's development of new models
    7. UpdateFTC investigates OpenAI, Anthropic and other AI developers over consumer safety risks
    8. NSA, FBI and allies warn two critical PHP flaws, found using OpenAI and Google AI, let hackers take over websites — this issue

  2. Macron calls claims that migrants and Islamists caused France's riots 'stupid'; asked about Trump, said 'among others'

    NBC NEWS

    The riots broke out on Saturday, Oct. 17, when nationwide marches over high prices and public services turned violent in Paris, Marseille and other cities, Reuters reported. Speaking in Doha, French President Emmanuel Macron said foreign leaders in campaign mode made "unacceptable" and "stupid" claims about the riots. Asked if he meant Trump, he said, "among others." He said he saw foreign manipulation of information, but no foreign interference in the riots themselves.

    What was saidTrump at a Kansas rally on Monday, Oct. 19: France is "being conquered, looted and burned to the ground by migrants, jihadists and…2 details
    • Trump at a Kansas rally on Monday, Oct. 19: France is "being conquered, looted and burned to the ground by migrants, jihadists and communists who hate Christianity" (Politico).
    • Macron: "We've had people claiming that we were invaded by hordes of migrants and Islamists, which is completely false."
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times over 2 days, starting Oct 20.

    1. Trump and Vance blame immigration for France's riots; Macron blames fuel costs from the U.S.-Iran war
    2. Macron calls claims that migrants and Islamists caused France's riots 'stupid'; asked about Trump, said 'among others' — this issue

  3. Israeli forces detain Democratic House nominee Brad Lander and about 80 rabbis and activists at West Bank olive harvest

    NYT

    The group was helping Palestinians pick olives near Nahalin. They were taken by bus to a police station in the Beitar Illit settlement. Israel's foreign ministry said Lander "deliberately entered a restricted security area." It called the trip "a calculated political provocation." But an army map shows the spot needed no prior approval, The Times of Israel reports. By evening, police had freed all but four.

    What each side saidLander: released "apparently because of my public profile" while "several dozen rabbis & participants" stayed in detention "for…3 details
    • Lander: released "apparently because of my public profile" while "several dozen rabbis & participants" stayed in detention "for harvesting olives."
    • Mayor Zohran Mamdani demanded the others' release: "Harvesting olives is not illegal. The occupation is."
    • More than 900 Palestinians have been injured in settler attacks this year, per a July UN report cited by NBC News.

  4. Trump administration taps the Northeast home heating oil reserve to ease surging prices

    THE NEW YORK TIMESFuel prices

    The Trump administration is releasing oil from the Northeast home heating oil reserve to bring down heating oil prices before winter, The Times and Politico report. The Energy Department will lend up to 315,000 barrels. Maine's senators say that is about a third of a reserve that holds about 1 million barrels. New England homes paid $6.112 a gallon on Oct. 19, per the EIA. That is above the November 2022 peak of $5.882. The Times notes the release comes less than two weeks before the Nov. 3 midterms.

Elections6 bites

  1. Lawmakers say a U.S. briefing showed Russia covertly targeting pro-Ukraine midterm candidates, mostly Democrats

    POLITICORussia-Ukraine war

    Lawmakers who received a classified briefing say Russia is using misinformation to undercut midterm candidates who back Ukraine, most of them Democrats. The account comes from those lawmakers, not from the intelligence agencies.

  2. FCC chair Brendan Carr warns broadcasters that airing fabricated polls could violate their licenses

    CNNFCC and the networks

    Carr pointed to the FCC's news-distortion and hoax rules, which cover only broadcast TV and radio, not cable, newspapers or online outlets.

    Key detailsCarr's claim on X, not backed by evidence in the post as quoted: a "significant surge in entirely Fake Polls and Suppression…2 details
    • Carr's claim on X, not backed by evidence in the post as quoted: a "significant surge in entirely Fake Polls and Suppression Polls" meant to "interfere with the regular functioning of the electoral process."
    • Separately, two polls released Wednesday, Oct. 21, put Trump's approval at record lows: 36% of likely voters for The New York Times and Siena, 32% of adults for CNN and SSRS.

  3. Trump says DOJ will settle remaining Camp Lejeune claims if GOP wins Congress, "no money" if not

    THE HILL

    Trump tied faster Camp Lejeune settlements to a GOP win in Congress at a North Carolina rally. "If we don't win, there's no money," he said. The 2022 Camp Lejeune Justice Act already lets the Justice Department settle the claims, whoever controls Congress. Citing DOJ figures, Fox News reports about $919.7 million paid to roughly 3,300 claimants since January 2025. From 2022 to early 2025, 459 settlements paid $59.6 million.

    The pledge and the backlog"If we win the House and Senate, I am directing the Department of Justice to settle all remaining legitimate claims as soon as…3 details
    • "If we win the House and Senate, I am directing the Department of Justice to settle all remaining legitimate claims as soon as possible."
    • More than 400,000 claims in the settlement program remain unsettled, and some claimants say the government denied them or offered too little, The Hill reports.
    • Trump ally Laura Loomer on Monday, Oct. 19, accused Associate Attorney General Stanley Woodward, who oversees the settlements, of "insulting lowball offers."

  4. Decision Desk HQ pulls 17 faked Wedgewood polls; McMorrow says one cost her donors

    PBS NEWSHOURUpdate

    Decision Desk HQ removed 17 Wedgewood polls from its averages. Mallory McMorrow (St Sen-D Michigan) says a fake Wedgewood poll from late June made her donations dry up. It showed her third in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary. She quit the race on July 5.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

    On Oct. 20, the poll tracker FiftyPlusOne said Wedgewood had faked its survey data. Poll averages and campaigns had cited those numbers. Wedgewood then admitted it and called the project a "wake-up call."

    • Fake June poll: Abdul El-Sayed, now the Democratic nominee, 46%; Haley Stevens (Rep-D Michigan) 39%; McMorrow 9%.
    • McMorrow strategist Jennifer Holdsworth: donors used it to pull back while the campaign was outspent by $80 million.
    • FiftyPlusOne's G. Elliott Morris: effect on its averages was about zero because it had already down-weighted Wedgewood.
    • Real polls had McMorrow low too: Mitchell Research put her at 6% on June 16, per Newsweek.
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times, starting Oct 21.

    1. FiftyPlusOne says pollster Wedgewood faked survey data; Wedgewood now calls its polls a "social experiment"
    2. UpdateDecision Desk HQ pulls 17 faked Wedgewood polls; McMorrow says one cost her donors — this issue

  5. Vance tells Republicans to 'stop whining' over Ramaswamy's ad using Acton's estranged mother

    NBC NEWSOhio governor's race

    Vice President JD Vance told Republicans on Wednesday, Oct. 21, to "stop whining about an advertisement and go win the race in 13 days." Husted and Nancy Mace (Rep-R South Carolina) had criticized the ad. It targets Democratic governor nominee Amy Acton. In it, her estranged mother calls her a "liar." Republican nominee Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign says it will spend $4 million to air it, the AP reports.

    Where the race standsActon called the ad "horrible and hideous" and answered with an ad featuring her brother.3 details
    • Acton called the ad "horrible and hideous" and answered with an ad featuring her brother.
    • Acton has not spoken with her mother since the 1978 case against her stepfather, per TIME and NBC News.
    • Marist, polling Oct. 15-18, has Acton ahead of Ramaswamy 50% to 43% among likely voters; ActiVote, polling Sept. 27-Oct. 19, has Ramaswamy up 51.4% to 48.6%.

  6. Senate Republicans weigh late spending to protect Cindy Hyde-Smith (Sen-R Mississippi); Trump rallies there Monday, Oct. 26

    THE HILL

    Senate Republicans may spend late in Mississippi to protect Hyde-Smith from Democratic Senate candidate Scott Colom, Axios reports. The Cook Political Report moved the race from Solid to Likely Republican on Tuesday, Oct. 20. The only public polls, both for Democratic-aligned groups, had Hyde-Smith ahead by 3 points in April and 6 in August, per the Magnolia Tribune. A Wedgewood poll Colom touted, showing him 4 points back, turned out to be faked. Axios reports GOP money is also flowing into South Carolina and Kansas.

    The moneySenate Majority PAC, the Democrats' main Senate super PAC: $1.2 million into Mississippi (Axios)4 details
    • Senate Majority PAC, the Democrats' main Senate super PAC: $1.2 million into Mississippi (Axios)
    • Senate Leadership Fund: $93 million in Ohio, $53 million in Iowa (Axios)
    • Senate Leadership Fund: $8.5 million in South Carolina, per AdImpact; nearly $12 million spent of $14 million earmarked for Kansas (Axios)
    • GOP operative to Axios: "The wall has broken. The enemy is inside the fort."

Elections22 races

The midterms · 12 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Oct 21, 8:47 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 92%, Kalshi 91%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 67%, Kalshi 67%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 91.35–91.50%
92%91%chance Democrats take it · 0.2pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 92% and Kalshi 91%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 66.5%
67%67%chance Democrats take it · the same price on both · both venues up this week
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 67% and Kalshi 67%.

3 closest races

  • wGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 55.8%▲7.3Rick Jackson 43.8%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead after the Republican side lost about eight points in six days.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Oct 21, 8:47 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 56.0%, Kalshi 55.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 43.0%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • sIowa SenateAshley Hinson 57.5%▲1.0Josh Turek 42.5%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Oct 21, 8:47 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 42.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • pMaine SenateTroy Jackson 65.0%▲7.3Susan Collins 35.0%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about eight points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Oct 21, 8:47 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 65.5%, Kalshi 64.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 34.5%, Kalshi 35.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 13 still in doubt · Oct 21, 8:47 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate8 of 10

  • rAlaska SenateMary Peltola 74.3%Dan Sullivan 26.0%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Oct 21, 8:47 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 74.5%, Kalshi 74.0%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • zGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 95.83%▲0.2Collins 4.35%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Oct 21, 8:47 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.8pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 96.15%, Kalshi 95.50%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 3.95%, Kalshi 4.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.8pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • tMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 69.0%▲0.3Mike Rogers 31.0%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Oct 21, 8:47 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aaNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 71.5%▲2.3Osborn 28.5%

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Oct 21, 8:47 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 72.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • abNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 90.0%▲1.610.0%Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Oct 21, 8:47 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 90.5%, Kalshi 89.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 9.5%, Kalshi 10.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 96.20%▲1.0Whatley 3.80%

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Oct 21, 8:47 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.7pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 96.25%, Kalshi 96.15%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 3.45%, Kalshi 4.15%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.7pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • uOhio SenateSherrod Brown 70.0%▲9.3Jon Husted 30.5%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about nine points in six days.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Oct 21, 8:47 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 69.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • qTexas SenateJames Talarico 67.8%▲5.2Ken Paxton 32.0%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about six points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Oct 21, 8:47 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 68.0%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 31.5%, Kalshi 32.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors11 of 12

  • adAlaska governorWilson 18.50%81.2%Begich 0.25%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Oct 21, 8:47 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 17.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 0.05%, Kalshi 0.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • afArizona governorKatie Hobbs 91.8%▲2.68.7%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about three points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Oct 21, 8:47 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 92.5%, Kalshi 91.0%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 7.5%, Kalshi 9.8%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ajFlorida governorByron Donalds 79.0%▲0.321.0%Jolly

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Oct 21, 8:47 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 77.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 22.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • acIowa governorRob Sand 87.5%12.5%Lahn

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Oct 21, 8:47 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 86.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 11.5%, Kalshi 13.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aeMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 92.65%James 7.38%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Oct 21, 8:47 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.1pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 93.0%, Kalshi 92.3%; John James (R): Polymarket 6.80%, Kalshi 7.95%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.1pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • xNevada governorAaron Ford 65.5%▲13.4Joe Lombardo 34.0%

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Aaron Ford (D) faces Joe Lombardo (R).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: the Republican side is down about fourteen points.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Oct 21, 8:47 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 65.5%, Kalshi 65.5%; Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 34.5%, Kalshi 33.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ahNew York governorKathy Hochul 95.05%▲0.5Blakeman 5.13%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Oct 21, 8:47 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.9pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 95.4%, Kalshi 94.7%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.70%, Kalshi 5.55%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.9pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • oOhio governorAmy Acton 77.5%▲7.1Ramaswamy 22.5%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about seven points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Oct 21, 8:47 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 77.5%, Kalshi 77.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 22.5%, Kalshi 22.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aiPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 97.35%Garrity 2.55%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Oct 21, 8:47 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.6pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 97.65%, Kalshi 97.05%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.35%, Kalshi 2.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • agTexas governorGreg Abbott 66.6%▲10.833.5%Hinojosa

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead after the Democratic side gained about eleven points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Oct 21, 8:47 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.2pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 67.7%, Kalshi 65.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 34.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.2pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • vWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 80.5%▲0.2Tiffany 19.5%

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Oct 21, 8:47 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Oct 21, 8:47 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Not news news2 stories

PBS NEWSHOURUpdateICE raids

ICE says it arrested Long Beach citizen Ricardo Gonzalez for rioting; Mayor Rex Richardson files a complaint with DHS's watchdog

ProPublica counts 506 U.S. citizens held by immigration agents from January 2025 to September 2026: more than 300 accused of assaulting or obstructing agents, more than 100 held because agents questioned their citizenship.

The Long Beach arrest. ICE says it arrested Ricardo Gonzalez, a citizen and former city employee, for rioting and damaging a government vehicle. Surveillance video shows an unmarked SUV pulling in front of his e-bike; PBS says it is unclear whether the SUV hit him. His family says it did, and DHS denies it. Long Beach police took him to a fire station, removed his handcuffs and sent him to a hospital.

The count. ProPublica, publishing Oct. 6, counted every citizen immigration agents handcuffed, held at gunpoint or otherwise kept from leaving, for any length of time, and required two sources per case. Thirty-six were held at least a day without reaching a lawyer or family. Roughly a dozen were deported.

Still open. Long Beach Mayor Rex Richardson filed a complaint with DHS's inspector general and was still waiting for it to be acknowledged; no investigation has been confirmed. California officials are also calling for one.

Immigration agents detained Ricardo Gonzalez, a U.S. citizen and former Long Beach city employee, on Saturday, Oct. 17. On Oct. 18, Robert Garcia (Rep-D California) wrote that ICE agents "broke the arm of a North Long Beach resident"; DHS had not yet said why Gonzalez was held.

AXIOS

White House counsel demands Politico correct or retract 3 stories about chief of staff Susie Wiles by Thursday, Oct. 22

The letter names no penalty, and Politico, CNN and MS NOW are already barred from the Oval Office and Air Force One.

White House Counsel Will Scharf sent Politico a letter on Monday, Oct. 19, Axios reported on Wednesday, Oct. 21. It demands that Politico correct or retract three stories about White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles within 48 hours or face unspecified "consequences." Scharf wrote that "freedom of the press is not a professional exemption from accountability."

What next. Axios says the deadline runs out Thursday, Oct. 22, though 48 hours from a Monday letter would end Wednesday; Axios did not explain the gap. The letter names no lawsuit, fine or new access limit.

The three Politico stories this letter wants corrected or retractedOct. 15: Trump was weighing replacing Wiles.3 details
  • Oct. 15: Trump was weighing replacing Wiles. The White House's rebuttal is Trump's own denial.
  • Oct. 16: That first story set off alarm inside the White House and angered Trump. A spokesman denied it.
  • Oct. 16: Wiles helped set up a Fox interview. Before publication, the White House supplied text messages it says show Katie Zacharia arranged the interview herself.
13 stories that didn't make the cutSeen by the desk, ranked, and not run. The number is where each stood in the day's order.

News

  • 47Ilhan Omar responds to a federal home raid as reporting examines an immigration-fraud investigationIlhan Omar responds to a federal home raid as reporting examines an immigration-fraud investigation.
  • 50Trump ties disaster assistance to electoral supportTrump ties disaster assistance to electoral support.
  • 51USDA confirms the first New World screwworm detection in U.S. wildlife in a Texas elkUSDA confirms the first New World screwworm detection in U.S. wildlife in a Texas elk.
  • 52Pennsylvania's measles outbreak grows as officials warn about congenital infection risksPennsylvania's measles outbreak grows as officials warn about congenital infection risks.
  • 54Neil Bush and other Texas Republicans cross party lines to support James TalaricoNeil Bush and other Texas Republicans cross party lines to support James Talarico.
  • 55Marshall and Hamilton face off in a high-stakes final Kansas Senate debateMarshall and Hamilton face off in a high-stakes final Kansas Senate debate.
  • 58Arizona's attorney general seeks to compel Maricopa's recorder to restore eligible votersArizona's attorney general seeks to compel Maricopa's recorder to restore eligible voters.

Election related

  • 46NYT/Siena and CNN polls put Trump approval at 36% and 32%, each poll's lowest yetTwo new national polls show Trump's lowest approval in each series: NYT/Siena 36% among likely voters, CNN/SSRS 32%.
  • 48Justice Kagan criticizes Supreme Court rulings on voting, redistricting and campaign financeJustice Kagan criticizes Supreme Court rulings on voting, redistricting and campaign finance.
  • 49CBS investigates armed DHS agents visiting homes in search of possible noncitizen votersCBS investigates armed DHS agents visiting homes in search of possible noncitizen voters.
  • 53The Iran war's deadlock shapes midterm politics and debate about future war powersThe Iran war's deadlock shapes midterm politics and debate about future war powers.
  • 56Campaign filings reveal a large late-midterm spending blitz by Trump's political groupsCampaign filings reveal a large late-midterm spending blitz by Trump's political groups, nearly $277 million on behalf of GOP candidates.
  • 57House Republicans subpoena New Jersey officials for noncitizen voter-registration recordsHouse Republicans subpoena New Jersey officials for noncitizen voter-registration records.

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