Police officers in tactical gear stand near parked vehicles behind yellow police tape on a street at night.
ABC News
1usUpdatecontestedMail-ballot rules

Justice Department gives California counties 48 hours to help check the citizenship of roughly 20,000 listed voters and asks them to set aside those mail ballots

The letters ask for Social Security numbers and warn officials of legal action for knowingly counting a noncitizen's vote; California has 23 million registered voters.

- Sept. 21 — L.A. County said a federal grand jury had subpoenaed its records on dozens of suspected noncitizen voters, the Los Angeles Times reported. - Sept. 29 — The Times reported at least five grand jury subpoenas to L.A. County election officials. That week, a Homeland Security Investigations official put the national hunt at about 1,600 voter-fraud cases and 160 arrests, per inewsource; the U.S. has 211 million active registered voters. - Oct. 15 — DOJ sued California over these ballots. - Oct. 22 — After Judge Carter did not rule by DOJ's noon deadline, DOJ asked the Ninth Circuit to stop California counting mail ballots from 20,930 "likely noncitizen" names.

ContextCalifornia checks citizenship by sworn statement, not by documents. New registrants check a box, under penalty of perjury, saying they are U.S. citizens, the Sacramento Bee reports. The state then matches a driver's license number or the last four digits of a Social Security number against DMV or Social Security records. The Bee says that match verifies a voter's identity. Lying about eligibility on the form is a felony, with up to three years in county jail, per the Orange County registrar. DOJ's list of about 20,000 names is under 0.1% of California's 23 million registered voters, roughly one in 1,150.

ABC NEWS11 sources

2usUpdateIran war

U.S. cuts staff at embassies in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and the UAE after intelligence chief says Iranian plots to kill Americans are at 'advanced stages'

Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton's one-page memo to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, dated Friday, Oct. 23, names no targets and does not say an attack is imminent.

- Oct. 9 — Chris Murphy (Sen-D Connecticut), back from Qatar and Saudi Arabia, said the Pentagon was hiding Iran war damage and barred him from Al Udeid air base. - Oct. 10 — A Houthi missile strike on Riyadh's airport killed 12, including an American, Saudi aviation authorities said; the airport shut until Oct. 17. - Oct. 13–15 — Saudi-led jets bombed Houthi oil sites in Yemen; a Houthi strike damaged Aramco's Dhahran headquarters; Trump weighed joining the Saudi strikes. - Oct. 18 — The Wall Street Journal reported Iran is giving the Houthis targeting intelligence for their strikes on Saudi Arabia. - Oct. 20–21 — Brent crude topped $111 a barrel; State ordered nonessential staff and families out of Saudi Arabia only. - Oct. 23 — Brent hit $116–117 a barrel as the war neared eight months.

ContextThe cuts are not a pullout from the whole Gulf. State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott called reports of a Gulf-wide departure order "inaccurate". The order to leave covers only Saudi Arabia, and the embassies in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and the UAE stay open with fewer people. On Saturday, Oct. 24, the department updated its travel advisories for more than a dozen Gulf and Middle East countries, per the Washington Examiner. The Saudi order followed weeks of Houthi strikes on Saudi airports. The deadliest came on Oct. 10, when a missile hit Riyadh's airport. Saudi aviation authorities put that toll at 12, including an American. The BBC counts 13 dead and 308 injured. Its tally of at least 21 dead since Oct. 1 covers every airport attack, not just that one.

NBC NEWS10 sources

Peltola's campaign and Senate Democrats file to defeat DOJ suit seeking to block Alaska's Senate certification if Sen. Sullivan loses

DOJ wants the ranked-choice count redone as if every vote for a second candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan, had gone to the incumbent.

- Oct. 17 — Sen. Dan S. Sullivan broke with Trump over a Russian diesel deal in his final, toss-up debate with Peltola. - Oct. 22 — The Justice Department sued to block certification of the result if Sullivan loses, citing the second Daniel J. Sullivan on the ballot. - Oct. 23 — Trump said he personally ordered the suit: "I'm the one that said do it."

ContextUnder Alaska's ranked-choice count, where the last-place finisher drops and those ballots move to each voter's next surviving pick, a Daniel J. Sullivan ballot already reaches the incumbent if Daniel is eliminated and Dan is ranked next. DOJ's version would also credit Dan on ballots that rank Peltola next or leave Dan off entirely. State review starts Nov. 19, with certification targeted for Nov. 25.

TIME12 sources

4us

White House lawyers weigh preemptive pardons for junior staff; Trump says "certainly I'd be allowed to"

Washington Sun reporter Jeff Stein says the idea under discussion would cover everyone in certain policy areas, such as deportation, and does not seem imminent.

What a staff pardon could not stop: Crimes committed after it is granted: the Supreme Court in Ex parte Garland (1866) limited pardons to offenses already committed. Compelled testimony: a pardoned staffer can lose the Fifth Amendment ground for refusing to answer about covered federal crimes.

ContextThe closest precedent is recent. In January 2025, President Biden gave preemptive pardons to officials including Anthony Fauci, Gen. Mark Milley and the members and staff of the House Jan. 6 committee. He said he did it to shield them from investigations Trump allies had promised. Those grants named no offense and covered date ranges, but they went to named people. Trump, back in office that same month, granted mass clemency to people charged over the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. Older cases set the pattern. Ford pardoned Nixon on Sept. 8, 1974, for all federal offenses committed from Jan. 20, 1969, to Aug. 9, 1974, without listing any crime. Carter's 1977 proclamation pardoned unnamed draft evaders but named the offense and the dates, Aug. 4, 1964, to March 28, 1973. A pardon grouped by policy area would cover unnamed staff defined by their work, with no offense named.

WASHINGTON EXAMINER5 sources

Ukraine says Starlink and Starshield work again above 400 km/h; Musk says Kyiv broke the terms with offensive drone strikes

The limits had cut service above 160 km/h (about 100 mph) for about 10 days, though Axios counts two weeks.

- Oct. 14 — Ukraine's Starshield terminals failed above 160 km/h; Musk blamed the U.S. military and Trump, and a U.S. official denied it. - Oct. 15 — Two U.S. officials said the order came from the White House; Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina) asked the Pentagon inspector general to investigate. - Oct. 16 — Trump said neither he nor Musk ordered the caps; nine senators asked the Pentagon watchdog who did. - Oct. 17 — Zelensky said road tests showed the cutoff applied only inside Ukraine; before it, drones flew at 400 km/h. - Oct. 18 — Zelensky called the slowdown a "message from American government"; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called that "reckless." - Oct. 20 — The Wall Street Journal reported Musk personally ordered the slowdown; Trump said he didn't know who did. - Oct. 22 — Trump said Musk restored service; Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth cast the limits as SpaceX's call. - Oct. 23 — Zelensky said service was still slowed; Richard Blumenthal (Sen-D Connecticut) opened an inquiry, and senators of both parties threatened to hold nominees.

ContextFor about 10 days (The Guardian and the Washington Examiner) or two weeks (Axios), Ukraine's satellite links failed whenever they moved faster than 160 km/h (about 100 mph). That cap hobbled drone operations, since attack drones fly well above that speed. By Saturday, Oct. 24, the defense ministry said the links held steady above 400 km/h. Musk's own words come closest to owning the limits. He said the "loophole was closed last week," but not who closed it. The Economist reported that the slowdown appears to have come from a small circle around Trump, Musk and Steve Witkoff. Sternenko's rebuttal matters because it turns on which service carried the drones. If civilian Starlink could not run drone missions at all, Musk's terms-of-service complaint would not explain cutting Starshield.

THE GUARDIAN10 sources

6not newslongform

NYT investigation finds industry insiders at EPA helped Trump waive toxic air pollution limits for chemical, oil and steel plants

About 200 plants held presidential exemptions as of Oct. 7, per Harvest Public Media; no president used the power before 2025.

What EPA said the waived 2024 rules would cost and save: Iron and steel plants: EPA estimated $200–420 million a year in health benefits against $5.3 million a year in compliance costs (2022 dollars). Chemical plants: $150 million a year in costs against $6.5–58 million a year in priced ozone benefits; cancer-risk cuts from ethylene oxide and chloroprene were never priced. Coke ovens: about $3.9 million a year in costs; EPA did not put a number on the health benefits.

ContextThe Clean Air Act, the main federal law on air pollution, has a clause, Section 112(i)(4), that lets a president excuse a plant from a new pollution rule. Each excuse lasts two years and can be renewed, but only if the needed control technology is not available and the exemption serves national security. No president used that power before 2025. As of Oct. 7, about 200 plants held such exemptions, according to Harvest Public Media. That count includes 70 of the 218 chemical plants covered by a 2024 EPA rule. For those chemical plants, limits on ethylene oxide (a gas tied to cancer risk) and fenceline monitoring (air sensors at a plant's property line that show what neighbors breathe) were due July 15, 2026. They now come due July 15, 2028.

THE NEW YORK TIMES4 sources

7not newslongformUpdate

Insurers' 2027 plan exits leave as many as 5 million seniors needing new Medicare Advantage coverage

Anyone who does nothing lands in traditional Medicare on Jan. 1, 2027, with no drug coverage.

On Oct. 23, Humana and UnitedHealthcare told CBS News they will drop Medicare Advantage plans (private plans that stand in for government-run Medicare) covering about 1 million seniors in 2027. The insurers cite higher costs and more use of care. They will offer most affected members other plans.

ContextSeniors dropped this way get some protections. Medigap insurers sell plans that pay costs traditional Medicare leaves to the patient. For certain policies, they must accept these members no matter their health. Plan N is not one of them. A new Advantage plan must keep paying for treatment already underway through March 31. It cannot demand new prior approval (the insurer's sign-off before care) first. A new drug plan must give a one-time 30-day fill of a medicine it does not normally cover.

NPR1 source

8not newslongformMeasles outbreak

CDC counts 4,588 U.S. measles cases and three deaths in 2026; Pennsylvania alone reports five deaths

The CDC added 178 cases in its Oct. 23 update, counts 43 outbreaks this year and will not say where its third death occurred.

Earlier measles years the 2026 count has already passed, by CDC yearly totals: 2025, full year: 2,289 cases 2019, the high from 2000 through 2024: 1,274 cases 2021–2025 average: 560.6 cases a year

ContextThe two death counts follow different rules. Pennsylvania counts a death after a lab-confirmed infection, generally within 30 days of the first symptoms, unless something unrelated caused it. The CDC now counts only death certificates that list measles as the underlying cause. Former officials at the CDC's statistics center told STAT those certificates can take weeks or months to clear. In September, Reuters reported that Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. asked CDC officials to remove a Pennsylvania death from the count. Lancaster County has the most cases in the state, 474 of 1,338 as of Oct. 23. There, 87.6% of kindergartners have both MMR doses, short of the 95% that stops spread.

THE GUARDIAN1 source

9not newslongformICE raids

Luis Sandoval, 48, dies in ICE custody at Georgia's Folkston jail during a detainee hunger strike; ICE says staff found a ligature on his neck

The Georgia Bureau of Investigation is investigating; Sandoval had been moved to Folkston on Oct. 8, 15 days before he died.

How big the hunger strike is depends on who counts: 73 detainees were reported as the starting group of strikers. ICE said 13 were still striking on Oct. 16. Advocates estimated at least 500 at the protest's peak — a different date and a different measure than ICE's count.

ContextSandoval is the second person to die in custody at Folkston, The Current GA reports. The first, Jaspal Singh, died April 15, 2024, and an ICE review found the facility's medical care contributed to his death. Nationally, 37 people died in ICE custody in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, the most on record, by a Bloomberg Law count. The Guardian counts Sandoval as the 60th death in ICE custody since President Trump's second term began. On Thursday, Oct. 22, Raphael Warnock (Sen-D Georgia) and Jon Ossoff (Sen-D Georgia) asked DHS to investigate reports of medical neglect and retaliation against the strikers.

THE GUARDIAN1 source

Sunday · The daily brief

Oct 252026

9 leads34 briefs28 min

Executive summary9 stories

News news5

  1. Justice Department gives California counties 48 hours to help check the citizenship of roughly 20,000 listed voters and asks them to set aside those mail ballotsThe letters ask for Social Security numbers and warn officials of legal action for knowingly counting a noncitizen's vote; California has 23 million registered voters.
  2. U.S. cuts staff at embassies in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and the UAE after intelligence chief says Iranian plots to kill Americans are at 'advanced stages'Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton's one-page memo to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, dated Friday, Oct. 23, names no targets and does not say an attack is imminent.
  3. Peltola's campaign and Senate Democrats file to defeat DOJ suit seeking to block Alaska's Senate certification if Sen. Sullivan losesDOJ wants the ranked-choice count redone as if every vote for a second candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan, had gone to the incumbent.
  4. White House lawyers weigh preemptive pardons for junior staff; Trump says "certainly I'd be allowed to"Washington Sun reporter Jeff Stein says the idea under discussion would cover everyone in certain policy areas, such as deportation, and does not seem imminent.
  5. Ukraine says Starlink and Starshield work again above 400 km/h; Musk says Kyiv broke the terms with offensive drone strikesThe limits had cut service above 160 km/h (about 100 mph) for about 10 days, though Axios counts two weeks.

Not news news4

  1. NYT investigation finds industry insiders at EPA helped Trump waive toxic air pollution limits for chemical, oil and steel plantsAbout 200 plants held presidential exemptions as of Oct. 7, per Harvest Public Media; no president used the power before 2025.
  2. Insurers' 2027 plan exits leave as many as 5 million seniors needing new Medicare Advantage coverageAnyone who does nothing lands in traditional Medicare on Jan. 1, 2027, with no drug coverage.
  3. CDC counts 4,588 U.S. measles cases and three deaths in 2026; Pennsylvania alone reports five deathsThe CDC added 178 cases in its Oct. 23 update, counts 43 outbreaks this year and will not say where its third death occurred.
  4. Luis Sandoval, 48, dies in ICE custody at Georgia's Folkston jail during a detainee hunger strike; ICE says staff found a ligature on his neckThe Georgia Bureau of Investigation is investigating; Sandoval had been moved to Folkston on Oct. 8, 15 days before he died.

News news5 stories

Ongoing4 earlier updates10 days
ABC NEWSUpdateMail-ballot rules

Justice Department gives California counties 48 hours to help check the citizenship of roughly 20,000 listed voters and asks them to set aside those mail ballots

The letters ask for Social Security numbers and warn officials of legal action for knowingly counting a noncitizen's vote; California has 23 million registered voters.

On Friday, Oct. 23, the U.S. attorney's office in Los Angeles sent letters to California county registrars. They asked counties to commit within 48 hours to working with the Justice Department and Homeland Security. The task is to sort citizens from noncitizens on a list of roughly 20,000 voters DOJ calls likely noncitizens. California has 23 million registered voters.

The ask. Counties should "segregate — not cancel" mail ballots whose citizenship can't be confirmed, wrote First Assistant U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli. DOJ also wants Social Security numbers, ID information and a copy of each listed voter's registration. The letters warn of legal action against any official who knowingly counts a noncitizen's vote. San Bernardino County's list alone has 1,133 names. Reports differ on reach: the Los Angeles County registrar says at least 18 counties got letters, NBC News reports 57 of 58, and The Hill reports every county.

The pushback. Registrars say they are counting as normal. "We're not changing anything we're doing," said Napa County registrar John Tuteur. The state attorney general says the lists contain errors. Alex Padilla (Sen-D California) said DOJ has "admitted that the data they point to is inaccurate and unreliable."

What next. U.S. District Judge David Carter hears DOJ's lawsuit, filed Oct. 15, on Tuesday, Oct. 27. A separate DOJ emergency request to the Ninth Circuit is also pending.

Catch upwhat happened before · 4 earlier issues
  • Sept. 21 — L.A. County said a federal grand jury had subpoenaed its records on dozens of suspected noncitizen voters, the Los Angeles Times reported.
  • Sept. 29 — The Times reported at least five grand jury subpoenas to L.A. County election officials. That week, a Homeland Security Investigations official put the national hunt at about 1,600 voter-fraud cases and 160 arrests, per inewsource; the U.S. has 211 million active registered voters.
  • Oct. 15 — DOJ sued California over these ballots.
  • Oct. 22 — After Judge Carter did not rule by DOJ's noon deadline, DOJ asked the Ninth Circuit to stop California counting mail ballots from 20,930 "likely noncitizen" names.
What a freeze from Judge Carter would and wouldn't doBallots already separated from their envelopes can't be pulled back out, per California's filings2 details
  • Ballots already separated from their envelopes can't be pulled back out, per California's filings
  • An order setting a later injunction hearing would not by itself impose the freeze

Red take

Setting aside the mail ballots of roughly 20,000 flagged voters costs a citizen nothing but a wait, while counting them first can make a mistake permanent: California's own court filings say a ballot separated from its envelope can't be pulled back out. That is why Bill Essayli, the No. 2 federal prosecutor in Los Angeles, asked counties to "segregate — not cancel" those ballots. Count before anyone checks, and any noncitizen's vote stays in the total for good.

Blue take

Alex Padilla, a Democratic senator from California, says the Justice Department has "admitted" its list of likely noncitizen voters is "inaccurate and unreliable," and a list like that is no reason to hold anyone's ballot. Napa County's registrar, John Tuteur, is right to keep counting as normal, despite letters asking for Social Security numbers and warning officials of legal action. Freeze those ballots, and citizens who voted lawfully wait on federal officials to vouch for them.

Ongoing25 earlier updates46 days

This story has run 26 times over 46 days, starting Sep 9.

  1. Houthi missiles and drones hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and halting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery
  2. UpdateBrent oil exceeds $100 a barrel; US diesel reaches $5.94 a gallon
  3. Houthis capture Yemen's Mokha from Saudi-backed forces 46 miles from Bab el-Mandeb
  4. UpdateHouthi forces captured Mokha and Perim island in the 28-kilometer Bab el-Mandeb strait.
  5. UpdateA day after the Bab el-Mandeb capture, maritime monitors have recorded no new transit halts
  6. UpdateSaudi Arabia shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline, oil rises more than $3 with 4% of supply at risk
  7. UpdateHouthis seize two more Red Sea islands as Saudi pipeline faces 3-to-5-week outage
  8. UpdateSaudi Arabia suspends loadings at its last open oil terminal; September cargoes cancelled
  9. Attacks on Saudi export pipeline push WTI crude to $107.02 a barrel, a 30-day high
  10. UpdateHouthi missiles hit Riyadh, burning a fuel depot near King Khalid airport
  11. UpdateSaudi Arabia says it intercepted a Houthi missile aimed at Riyadh
  12. UpdateTrump declined a prepared U.S. air campaign against the Houthis, giving Saudi Arabia intelligence and targeting data instead
  13. UpdateSaudi Arabia tested its shut east-west pipeline for a restart as oil fell below $98
  14. Chris Murphy (Sen-D Connecticut) says Pentagon is hiding Iran war damage and a deal isn't imminent
  15. UpdateStrike on Riyadh airport kills 12, including an American; Trump says the U.S. "may" join Saudi strikes on the Houthis
  16. UpdateRiyadh airport hit again Sunday, Oct. 11, killing one; Saturday's strike toll rises to at least 13, including an American
  17. UpdateSaudi Arabia investigates why its air defenses failed to stop the Houthi strike that killed at least 13 at Riyadh's airport
  18. UpdateSaudi-led coalition bombs Houthi oil facilities and a fuel depot in Yemen after a Riyadh airport strike killed at least 13
  19. Houthi strike damages 3 floors of Aramco's Dhahran headquarters, including executive offices; no casualties
  20. Brent crude touches $110 a barrel, its first time there since May 20, after Saudi-led forces intercept missiles aimed at energy hubs
  21. Iran is giving the Houthis targeting and intelligence help for their strikes on Saudi Arabia, WSJ reports
  22. Judge jails ex-OpenAI engineer accused of bugging executives; prosecutors say Saudi official flew his family out
  23. UpdateBrent crude tops $111 a barrel, its highest since May, after Iran and the Houthis claim attacks on Gulf ships and Saudi oil sites
  24. UpdateState Department orders non-emergency U.S. staff and families out of Saudi Arabia after Houthi attacks on airports and oil sites
  25. Brent crude hits $116-117 a barrel Friday, Oct. 23, on fears the Iran war escalates again
  26. UpdateU.S. cuts staff at embassies in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and the UAE after intelligence chief says Iranian plots to kill Americans are at 'advanced stages' — this issue
NBC NEWSUpdateIran war

U.S. cuts staff at embassies in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and the UAE after intelligence chief says Iranian plots to kill Americans are at 'advanced stages'

Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton's one-page memo to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, dated Friday, Oct. 23, names no targets and does not say an attack is imminent.

The State Department is cutting staff at four Middle East embassies, citing Iranian plots and Houthi attacks. All four stay open with fewer people. The cuts follow Wednesday's (Oct. 21) order sending nonessential staff and families out of the Riyadh embassy and the Jeddah and Dhahran consulates in Saudi Arabia.

The memo. Clayton's one-page, unclassified memo told Rubio that Iran has sharply stepped up efforts to target U.S. personnel, with lethal plots at "advanced stages" in the Middle East and other countries. CIA Director John Ratcliffe was copied.

The Houthis. Houthi attacks on Saudi airports have killed at least 21 people since the start of October, per the BBC.

The President. Trump, at a Florida rally Friday (Oct. 23): "We may do another little Operation Epic Fury, or [the Iranians] will agree [to a deal]... perhaps they're not smart."

What next. Clayton wrote that the risk reaches "more individuals than are currently cleared" to see it, and promised to downgrade "as much intelligence as possible" so Rubio can share it with State staff.

Catch upwhat happened before · 25 earlier issues
  • Oct. 9 — Chris Murphy (Sen-D Connecticut), back from Qatar and Saudi Arabia, said the Pentagon was hiding Iran war damage and barred him from Al Udeid air base.
  • Oct. 10 — A Houthi missile strike on Riyadh's airport killed 12, including an American, Saudi aviation authorities said; the airport shut until Oct. 17.
  • Oct. 13–15 — Saudi-led jets bombed Houthi oil sites in Yemen; a Houthi strike damaged Aramco's Dhahran headquarters; Trump weighed joining the Saudi strikes.
  • Oct. 18 — The Wall Street Journal reported Iran is giving the Houthis targeting intelligence for their strikes on Saudi Arabia.
  • Oct. 20–21 — Brent crude topped $111 a barrel; State ordered nonessential staff and families out of Saudi Arabia only.
  • Oct. 23 — Brent hit $116–117 a barrel as the war neared eight months.
24 earlier issues
Ongoing2 earlier updates8 days

This story has run 3 times over 8 days, starting Oct 17.

  1. Sullivan breaks with Trump on Russian diesel deal in final toss-up Alaska Senate debate with Peltola
  2. UpdateJustice Department sues to block Alaska's Senate certification if Sen. Dan Sullivan loses, citing a second candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan
  3. UpdatePeltola's campaign and Senate Democrats file to defeat DOJ suit seeking to block Alaska's Senate certification if Sen. Sullivan loses — this issue
TIMEUpdateAlaska Senate race

Peltola's campaign and Senate Democrats file to defeat DOJ suit seeking to block Alaska's Senate certification if Sen. Sullivan loses

Markets, not polling
Mary Peltola 75.0%▲0.6Dan Sullivan 25.8%
DOJ wants the ranked-choice count redone as if every vote for a second candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan, had gone to the incumbent.

The Justice Department sued Thursday, Oct. 22, 12 days before the Nov. 3 election, arguing that a challenger with nearly the same name will pull votes meant for Sen. Dan S. Sullivan (Sen-R Alaska). October polls show Democrat Mary Peltola (D-AK) ahead in a state Donald Trump carried in 2024.

The defense. Peltola's campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (the party's Senate campaign arm) filed through Marc Elias's law firm to fight the suit. Peltola called it "a very desperate attempt to cling to power."

The Republicans. Lisa Murkowski (Sen-R Alaska) said DOJ "should never have filed this lawsuit." Ben Ginsberg, the election lawyer for George W. Bush's 2000 and 2004 campaigns, said it has "zero basis in the law."

Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues
  • Oct. 17 — Sen. Dan S. Sullivan broke with Trump over a Russian diesel deal in his final, toss-up debate with Peltola.
  • Oct. 22 — The Justice Department sued to block certification of the result if Sullivan loses, citing the second Daniel J. Sullivan on the ballot.
  • Oct. 23 — Trump said he personally ordered the suit: "I'm the one that said do it."
What DOJ's complaint offers, and lacks, as proof of confusionNo voter statement, survey or count of anyone who marked one Sullivan while meaning the other.3 details
  • No voter statement, survey or count of anyone who marked one Sullivan while meaning the other.
  • The official ballot lists "Sullivan, Daniel J. Jr." with no party, beside "Sullivan, Dan S. (Registered Republican) Incumbent."
  • It concedes state courts overturned the elections director's June decision to keep Daniel J. Sullivan off the ballot.
WASHINGTON EXAMINER

White House lawyers weigh preemptive pardons for junior staff; Trump says "certainly I'd be allowed to"

The idea under discussion would cover everyone in certain policy areas, such as deportation, and does not seem imminent, according to the report the Washington Examiner cited.

The plan. White House lawyers are discussing preemptive pardons (clemency granted before any charge is filed) for large numbers of junior administration staff, according to a report the Washington Examiner cited. The aim would be to shield them from investigations Democrats have promised if they win Congress.

The question. Trump was asked about it while taking reporters' questions for nearly 20 minutes after voting early in person in Palm Beach on Saturday, Oct. 24.

“I haven't thought about it, but certainly I'd be allowed to.”Donald Trump

The aide. He then pointed to aide Margot Martin in the press pool: “they're going to drag her into a grand jury Margot, you're not going to have to worry about it, okay?”

Still open. No list of recipients, offenses or covered dates has been reported.

What a staff pardon could not stopCrimes committed after it is granted: the Supreme Court in Ex parte Garland (1866) limited pardons to offenses already committed.2 details
  • Crimes committed after it is granted: the Supreme Court in Ex parte Garland (1866) limited pardons to offenses already committed.
  • Compelled testimony: a pardoned staffer can lose the Fifth Amendment ground for refusing to answer about covered federal crimes.
Ongoing9 earlier updates10 days
THE GUARDIANUpdateRussia-Ukraine war

Ukraine says Starlink and Starshield work again above 400 km/h; Musk says Kyiv broke the terms with offensive drone strikes

The limits had cut service above 160 km/h (about 100 mph) for about 10 days, though Axios counts two weeks.

The fix. Ukraine's defense ministry said Saturday, Oct. 24, that its Starlink and Starshield connections are stable again at speeds over 400 km/h. While the limits were in place, service failed above 160 km/h (about 100 mph). Starshield is SpaceX's military service. Kyiv credits the diplomacy of Volodymyr Zelensky (President, Ukraine).

Musk's version. Hours later, Musk said the slowdown was deliberate:

“Ukraine military violated Starlink terms of service and used it for offensive drone strikes to kill people. That loophole was closed last week.” ([TS]a week ago Trump said neither he nor Musk ordered the caps)Elon Musk

The counterclaim. Serhii Sternenko, a former defense ministry insider, says civilian Starlink could not run drone missions at all. In his account, every drone mission that needed a satellite link ran on Starshield.

Still open. Who ordered the limits. Musk's post comes closest to owning them, but it names no one. Rubio and Hegseth have cast the limits as SpaceX's call.

Catch upwhat happened before · 9 earlier issues
  • Oct. 14 — Ukraine's Starshield terminals failed above 160 km/h; Musk blamed the U.S. military and Trump, and a U.S. official denied it.
  • Oct. 15 — Two U.S. officials said the order came from the White House; Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina) asked the Pentagon inspector general to investigate.
  • Oct. 16 — Trump said neither he nor Musk ordered the caps; nine senators asked the Pentagon watchdog who did.
  • Oct. 17 — Zelensky said road tests showed the cutoff applied only inside Ukraine; before it, drones flew at 400 km/h.
  • Oct. 18 — Zelensky called the slowdown a "message from American government"; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called that "reckless."
  • Oct. 20 — The Wall Street Journal reported Musk personally ordered the slowdown; Trump said he didn't know who did.
  • Oct. 22 — Trump said Musk restored service; Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth cast the limits as SpaceX's call.
  • Oct. 23 — Zelensky said service was still slowed; Richard Blumenthal (Sen-D Connecticut) opened an inquiry, and senators of both parties threatened to hold nominees.

Quick bites12

The CIA's week2 bites
  1. FBI arrests CIA contractor accused of giving classified material to his girlfriend's Substack

    THE HILL

    Ian Brinksman, 42, held a top secret clearance and is charged in the Eastern District of Virginia with unlawfully transmitting national defense information; the affidavit says he knew she meant to publish it.

    • Charge: unlawfully transmitting national defense information, Eastern District of Virginia
    • Referral: the CIA sent the case to the FBI
    • Recipient: his romantic partner, who runs a Substack (per The Hill, Reuters, Washington Examiner)
  2. Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly asks Cubans to work with the CIA, which posted Spanish contact instructions

    CBS NEWS

    Rubio urged Cubans who want "positive change" to form "a discrete partnership with the CIA" just after Trump told a Florida rally a returning U.S. warship would stop 50 yards off Cuba's coast.

    On the recordTrump: "They'll raise up their hands, and then we're going to send Marco Rubio in to finish up the deal."3 details
    • Trump: "They'll raise up their hands, and then we're going to send Marco Rubio in to finish up the deal."
    • The CIA reposted Rubio's message in Spanish with a video on how to contact the agency.
    • Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla rejected the threats: Cuba's shores are "rugged and inhospitable to those who arrive with hostile intentions."
The Iran standoff2 bites
  1. Trump votes early in person in Palm Beach, says on Iran he "may have to finish it off"

    PBS NEWSHOURIran war

    Asked if he voted the party line, Trump said "very much so," and on Iran he added, "Or maybe they'll make a deal, but I'm not sure. Either way, we win."

    He voted with first lady Melania Trump, though he has long attacked mail voting (AP) and opposed early voting (CNN).

  2. Iran's president blames the US for the failed interim deal but says Tehran is open to new talks

    REUTERSIran war

    Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian blamed the US for the collapse of the interim deal Pakistan brokered in June, Reuters reports. He urged a new try. But Iran's ambassador to Islamabad said Tehran is still open to talks under that deal, so it may not be dead.

Also tonight2 bites
  1. Executives quit $25 billion Alaska gas-export venture, saying sanctioned Russian firm Novatek secretly controlled it

    FINANCIAL TIMESRussia diesel deal

    Polar Train LNG's former CEO, Joel Riddle, told the FT that Russia's sanctioned Novatek secretly funded and ran the project. He said executives quit fearing they would break sanctions. The venture launched with Gentry Beach, an investor with ties to the Trump family, the FT reported. Polar LNG called Riddle a "disgruntled employee" it had fired and said the project follows U.S. law. The claim rests on his account alone.

  2. China urges US to drop Treasury plan extending outbound investment curbs to hypersonics and quantum

    THE HILL

    Treasury wants to extend its limits on US investment in some tech fields. On Thursday, Oct. 22, it proposed adding hypersonic systems and quantum technology. China pushed back on Saturday, Oct. 24. It called the plan "a typical example of an overly broad application of national security concerns," Bloomberg reported.

Elections6 bites
  1. Ramaswamy cuts his Acton ad to 30 seconds as Cook tilts Ohio's governor race to Acton, up 4 points

    WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdateOhio governor's race

    Republican nominee Vivek Ramaswamy is switching to a 30-second version of his ad featuring Democrat Amy Acton's estranged mother, a person close to his campaign told NBC News on Oct. 24. The original ran a minute. In it, Acton's mother calls her a "liar"; Acton says she has not seen or spoken to her mother in nearly 50 years. On Friday, Oct. 23, the Cook Political Report moved the governor's race from Toss-Up to Lean Democrat. Cook said polls were trending toward Acton even before the ad. Acton leads by 4 points in the RealClearPolitics average.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 3 earlier issues
    • Oct. 21 — Vice President JD Vance told Republicans to "stop whining" about the ad; Jon Husted (Sen-R Ohio) said he "would not have run that ad."
    • Oct. 22 — Gov. Mike DeWine urged Ramaswamy to pull the ad but kept his endorsement; Trump said DeWine "probably wants a Dumocrat to win."
    • Oct. 23 — Trump said GOP critics of the ad "don't know the facts" as court records detailed a 1978 rape charge against Acton's stepfather.
    Where it standsCook's Jessica Taylor: "This is not the kind of TV ad you run if you're winning — or even if you're confident you can."2 details
    • Cook's Jessica Taylor: "This is not the kind of TV ad you run if you're winning — or even if you're confident you can."
    • Taylor said Cook hasn't "talked to a GOP source who thought this was a good idea."
    Ongoing3

    This story has run 4 times over 3 days, starting Oct 22.

    1. Vance tells Republicans to 'stop whining' over Ramaswamy's ad using Acton's estranged mother
    2. UpdateDeWine urges Ramaswamy to pull Acton ad but keeps his endorsement; Trump says DeWine 'probably wants a Dumocrat to win'
    3. UpdateTrump and Ramaswamy keep defending the $4 million Acton ad; Trump says GOP critics 'don't know the facts'
    4. UpdateRamaswamy cuts his Acton ad to 30 seconds as Cook tilts Ohio's governor race to Acton, up 4 points — this issue
  2. Obama, campaigning for Acton, says there is 'no low' Ramaswamy will not sink to

    NBC NEWSOhio governor's race

    Barack Obama campaigned in Cleveland for Amy Acton, the Democrat running for governor, and Sherrod Brown, who is running for the Senate. The hall holds more than 10,000 and was near full, NBC News reported. Obama took on Republican Vivek Ramaswamy's ad featuring Acton's estranged mother. He said Ramaswamy has "no line he will not cross, no low he will not sink to."

    What else was saidObama on the White House renovation: "There's gold everywhere.3 details
    • Obama on the White House renovation: "There's gold everywhere. He's got the White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory."
    • Obama on Iran: "Seven months later, six months after they declared victory, how's that war going?"
    • Acton accused Ramaswamy of exploiting her childhood; no Democrat has won Ohio's governorship in 20 years (NBC News).
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times over 4 days, starting Oct 21.

    1. Ramaswamy campaign confirms $4M statewide buy for ad where Amy Acton's estranged mother calls her a "liar"
    2. Obama, campaigning for Acton, says there is 'no low' Ramaswamy will not sink to — this issue
  3. DOJ will send monitors to 6 Democratic-leaning Georgia counties on Nov. 3, including Fulton

    WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdate

    DOJ will send Election Day monitors to six Georgia counties: Bibb, Cobb, Chatham, DeKalb, Fulton and Gwinnett, the Washington Examiner reports. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution confirmed the notices. Chatham's arrived by email on Tuesday, Oct. 20, the paper reports. Sites become public only as states report being contacted, and the Examiner counts 11 states so far.

    In August, Civil Rights Division head Harmeet Dhillon said DOJ planned about 1,000 monitors nationwide, the AJC reports. DOJ began notifying counties on Tuesday, Oct. 20, NPR reported.

    Key figures2022 midterms: 388 DOJ monitors, per a DOJ official quoted by PBS (the Examiner says roughly 400), versus about 1,000 planned this…2 details
    • 2022 midterms: 388 DOJ monitors, per a DOJ official quoted by PBS (the Examiner says roughly 400), versus about 1,000 planned this year.
    • States reporting contact, per the Examiner: Oregon, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Colorado, Florida, Minnesota, Texas, Washington, Utah and Kansas.
    Currently showing States in DOJ's Election Day monitoring footprint, 2012–2026
    States in DOJ's Election Day monitoring footprint, 2012–2026
    DOJ’s 50-state goal vs. its recordBar chart of the number of states in each announced U.S. Justice Department Election Day monitoring deployment, by federal general election. 2012: 23 states (counts federal observers and DOJ staff together). 2014: 18. 2016: 28, the previous high. 2018: 19. 2020: 18. 2022: 24. 2024: 27. For 2026, a dashed outline bar rises to DOJ’s stated target of all 50 states. Inside it, a solid bar shows the 11 states that have reported DOJ contact so far. Past figures are announced footprints, not audited attendance. The 50 is a stated goal, not a published roster. The 11 is a single outlet’s running tally and is expected to rise as more states report contact.DOJ’s 50-state goal vs. its recordAnnounced footprint, by general electionStates covered50023182819182427Previous highTarget: all 5011 confirmed112012201420162018202020222024202611 = states reporting DOJ contact so farSource: U.S. DOJ; Washington Examiner
    States in DOJ's Election Day monitoring footprint, 2012–2026
  4. Trump officials campaign for Flávio Bolsonaro to beat Lula in Brazil's Oct. 25 runoff

    REUTERSBrazil election

    Flávio Bolsonaro led the first round and faces Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (President, Brazil) on Oct. 25; his brother Eduardo says a win would bring Brazil into the U.S.-led 'Shield of the Americas' anti-cartel coalition. Their father, ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, cannot run. Brazil's top court found him guilty of a coup plot in September 2025. It gave him 27 years in prison and barred him from office.

    Ongoing3
  5. Obama campaigns in Detroit for Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed on Michigan's first early-voting day

    THE GUARDIANMichigan Senate race

    Obama shared the stage with El-Sayed and Jocelyn Benson, the Democratic nominee for governor. Republicans argue El-Sayed is weak with Black voters, The Guardian reports.

    How El-Sayed has fared with Black voters in this raceEl-Sayed beat Haley Stevens (Rep-D Michigan) statewide by less than 1 point in the August primary (ABC News).3 details
    • El-Sayed beat Haley Stevens (Rep-D Michigan) statewide by less than 1 point in the August primary (ABC News).
    • Stevens won Wayne County, which includes Detroit, by about 6 points (ABC News).
    • A late-September Fox News Digital poll had El-Sayed at 77% among Black voters (Fox News).
  6. North Carolina early ballots top 1.2 million, 37% above the same point in 2022

    THE HILLUpdate

    North Carolina has accepted more than 1.2 million early ballots, 37% more than at this point in 2022. In Texas, analyst Zachary Donnini reads turnout as at least a few points bluer than 2024 and calls the Senate race wide open.

    How we got herethe story so far
    • Sept. 25 — Cook Political Report projected Democrats favored to win a slim House majority.
    • Sept. 29 — Republicans moved Senate money to defend Texas as Georgia and North Carolina slipped, the AP reported.
    • Oct. 6 — Cook moved Kansas to toss-up, shifted North Carolina and New Hampshire toward Democrats, and projected a 2-to-6-seat Senate gain; Democrats need 4.
    • Oct. 9 — The Senate Majority PAC booked $5 million in Kansas ads against Roger Marshall (Sen-R Kansas), Politico reported; the GOP's Senate Leadership Fund had booked more than $10 million defending him, per AdImpact.
    • Oct. 23 — More than 23 million Americans had voted early, per University of Florida Election Lab data cited by the Guardian. In states that report party registration, registered Democrats cast 45% of returned ballots and Republicans 30%.
    The Texas readDonnini: "Even a Trump+8 electorate would be very winnable for Paxton.2 details
    • Donnini: "Even a Trump+8 electorate would be very winnable for Paxton. Texas is a red state after all!"
    • Trump won Texas by about 13.7 points in 2024, per the Texas Tribune, so a Trump+8 electorate would be about 6 points bluer.

Elections22 races

The midterms · 9 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Oct 24, 9:11 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 92%, Kalshi 90%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 67%, Kalshi 65%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 90.45–91.50%
92%90%chance Democrats take it · 1.0pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 92% and Kalshi 90%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 64.5–66.5%
67%65%chance Democrats take it · 2.0pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 67% and Kalshi 65%.

3 closest races

  • qIowa SenateAshley Hinson 57.3%Josh Turek 42.0%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Oct 24, 9:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 57.0%, Kalshi 57.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • uGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 60.0%▲10.2Rick Jackson 40.0%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead, but no race here has moved more this week: the Republican side is down about eleven points.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Oct 24, 9:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 58.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • oTexas SenateJames Talarico 63.0%▲1.1Ken Paxton 37.0%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Oct 24, 9:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 62.5%, Kalshi 63.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 37.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 11 still in doubt · Oct 24, 9:11 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate8 of 10

  • pAlaska SenateMary Peltola 75.0%▲0.6Dan Sullivan 25.8%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Oct 24, 9:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 75.5%, Kalshi 74.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 25.0%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • xGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 95.88%▲0.5Collins 4.25%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Oct 24, 9:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.7pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 96.05%, Kalshi 95.70%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 3.9%, Kalshi 4.6%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.7pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • nMaine SenateTroy Jackson 63.5%▲4.1Susan Collins 36.8%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Oct 24, 9:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 63.5%, Kalshi 63.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 38.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • rMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 70.0%▲1.4Mike Rogers 30.0%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Oct 24, 9:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 71.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 74.8%▲3.2Dan Osborn 25.5%

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead after gaining about three points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Oct 24, 9:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 74.0%, Kalshi 75.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 24.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • zNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 90.5%▲1.19.5%Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Oct 24, 9:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 91.5%, Kalshi 89.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 8.5%, Kalshi 10.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • wNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 96.53%▲0.7Whatley 3.45%

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Oct 24, 9:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 96.65%, Kalshi 96.40%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 3.4%, Kalshi 3.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • sOhio SenateSherrod Brown 67.5%▲2.1Jon Husted 33.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Oct 24, 9:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 66.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 33.5%, Kalshi 32.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors11 of 12

  • abAlaska governor12.75%87.1%WilsonBegich 0.05%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a clear lead after losing about eight points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Oct 24, 9:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 13.0%, Kalshi 12.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 0.05%, Kalshi 0.05%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • adArizona governorKatie Hobbs 90.03%Biggs 9.75%

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Oct 24, 9:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 90.00%, Kalshi 90.05%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 9.0%, Kalshi 10.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ahFlorida governorByron Donalds 82.3%▲2.2Jolly 18.3%

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Oct 24, 9:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 82.0%, Kalshi 82.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 18.0%, Kalshi 18.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aaIowa governorRob Sand 87.0%13.5%Lahn

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Oct 24, 9:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 87.5%, Kalshi 86.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 14.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • acMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 93.47%▲0.3James 6.55%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Oct 24, 9:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.9pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 94.10%, Kalshi 92.85%; John James (R): Polymarket 5.6%, Kalshi 7.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.9pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • vNevada governorAaron Ford 67.3%▲10.6Joe Lombardo 33.0%

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Aaron Ford (D) faces Joe Lombardo (R).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about eleven points in six days.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Oct 24, 9:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 68.0%, Kalshi 66.5%; Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 33.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • afNew York governorKathy Hochul 95.40%▲1.1Blakeman 4.55%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Oct 24, 9:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.2pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 95.65%, Kalshi 95.15%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 3.95%, Kalshi 5.15%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • mOhio governorAmy Acton 81.5%▲9.719.0%Ramaswamy

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about ten points in six days.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Oct 24, 9:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 82.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • agPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 97.45%Garrity 2.38%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Oct 24, 9:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.4pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 97.55%, Kalshi 97.35%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.20%, Kalshi 2.55%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aeTexas governorGreg Abbott 68.38%▲6.931.50%Hinojosa

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead after the Democratic side gained about seven points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Oct 24, 9:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 69.25%, Kalshi 67.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 32.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • tWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 80.0%▲0.320.0%Tiffany

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Oct 24, 9:11 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Oct 24, 9:11 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Not news news4 stories

THE NEW YORK TIMES

NYT investigation finds industry insiders at EPA helped Trump waive toxic air pollution limits for chemical, oil and steel plants

About 200 plants held presidential exemptions as of Oct. 7, per Harvest Public Media; no president used the power before 2025.

A New York Times investigation by Eric Lipton, published Saturday, Oct. 24, reports that corporate interests gained power inside the Environmental Protection Agency. It finds they helped the Trump administration grant waivers from toxic air pollution limits and undo those limits. The limits were meant to protect millions of Americans.

The reporting covers the chemical, petroleum and steel industries. It centers on Port Neches, Texas, a Gulf Coast town ringed by petrochemical plants.

BackgroundWhat EPA said the waived 2024 rules would cost and save3 facts
  • Iron and steel plants: EPA estimated $200–420 million a year in health benefits against $5.3 million a year in compliance costs (2022 dollars).
  • Chemical plants: $150 million a year in costs against $6.5–58 million a year in priced ozone benefits; cancer-risk cuts from ethylene oxide and chloroprene were never priced.
  • Coke ovens: about $3.9 million a year in costs; EPA did not put a number on the health benefits.
Ongoing1 earlier update

This story has run 2 times, starting Oct 24.

  1. Humana and UnitedHealthcare end Medicare Advantage plans for about 1 million seniors in 2027
  2. UpdateInsurers' 2027 plan exits leave as many as 5 million seniors needing new Medicare Advantage coverage — this issue
NPRUpdate

Insurers' 2027 plan exits leave as many as 5 million seniors needing new Medicare Advantage coverage

Anyone who does nothing lands in traditional Medicare on Jan. 1, 2027, with no drug coverage.

Insurers are ending enough Medicare Advantage plans (private plans that replace traditional Medicare) that as many as 5 million seniors must choose new coverage for 2027, NPR reports, vs. 3,156,598 by a stricter count. NPR's figure is an upper estimate. It also counts people moved automatically into a sister plan. The stricter count, by Medicare Market Insights from federal plan files, covers only those whose plan, or its availability in their county, actually ends. That is 10.6% of 29.9 million individual Advantage enrollees. Vlada Health's count from the same files, charted below, is 3,153,512, up from 2,923,080 (10.1%) for 2026.

  • Sun Nov. 1Medigap applications can begin
  • Mon Dec. 7Regular open enrollment ends
  • Tue Dec. 8Special window for dropped members opens
  • Thu Dec. 31Last pick without a January gap
  • Sun Feb. 28Special window closes
  • Thu Mar. 4Guaranteed Medigap acceptance ends

What next.

Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

On Oct. 23, Humana and UnitedHealthcare told CBS News they will drop Medicare Advantage plans (private plans that stand in for government-run Medicare) covering about 1 million seniors in 2027. The insurers cite higher costs and more use of care. They will offer most affected members other plans.

How Advantage plan exits grew before the 2026 and 2027 waves, by Vlada Health's count:

  • 2022: 85,212 seniors lost their plan (0.4% of enrollees)
  • 2024: 300,344 (1.2%)
  • 2025: 2,015,580 (7.3%)
Currently showing Seniors losing their Medicare Advantage plan, by coverage year
Seniors losing their Medicare Advantage plan, by coverage year
Medicare Advantage plan exits jumped in 2025Bar chart with one bar per coverage year from 2017 to 2027. Each bar counts the Medicare Advantage enrollees whose plan ended or left their county. The unit is people, on a zero-based scale. From 2017 through 2024 the bars stay low. They range from 85,212 people (0.4% of enrollees, in 2022) to 464,282 (3.3%, in 2017). In 2025 the count jumps to 2,015,580 (7.3%). It reaches 2,923,080 (10.1%) in 2026 and 3,153,512 (10.6%) in 2027, the highest in the series. The counts come from Vlada Health's analysis of CMS plan files. They exclude people moved automatically to another plan. NPR's higher headline estimate counts those moves and is not drawn. Medicare Market Insights' 2027 count, from the same federal files, is slightly higher than Vlada's.Plan exits jumped in 2025Medicare Advantage enrollees whose planended or left their county, each year4,000,0003,000,0002,000,0001,000,00002017201920212023202520272027: 3,153,512 (10.6%)2026: 2,923,080 (10.1%)2025: 2,015,580 (7.3%)2022: 85,212 (0.4%)Excludes automatic moves to a sisterplan, which NPR's higher estimate counts.Source: Vlada Health analysis of CMS files
Seniors losing their Medicare Advantage plan, by coverage year
Ongoing1 earlier update9 days

This story has run 2 times over 9 days, starting Oct 16.

  1. UpdateCDC sends an outbreak investigator to Pennsylvania as state measles cases reach 1,222
  2. CDC counts 4,588 U.S. measles cases and three deaths in 2026; Pennsylvania alone reports five deaths — this issue
THE GUARDIANMeasles outbreak

CDC counts 4,588 U.S. measles cases and three deaths in 2026; Pennsylvania alone reports five deaths

The CDC added 178 cases in its Oct. 23 update, counts 43 outbreaks this year and will not say where its third death occurred.

The CDC's weekly update, posted Friday, Oct. 23, counts 4,588 measles cases in the U.S. this year, as of Thursday, Oct. 22. It is the agency's first case count since it added a third death the week of Oct. 19. The CDC's national death count and Pennsylvania's own count do not agree.

The state. Pennsylvania has 1,338 of the 4,588 cases counted nationwide.

The deaths. Pennsylvania reports five measles-associated deaths and is investigating a sixth. The CDC counts three deaths nationwide. It will not say where the third occurred, citing privacy laws. Experts quoted by The Guardian call the agency less transparent.

Earlier measles years the 2026 count has already passed, by CDC yearly totals:

  • 2025, full year: 2,289 cases
  • 2019, the high from 2000 through 2024: 1,274 cases
  • 2021–2025 average: 560.6 cases a year
THE GUARDIANICE raids

Luis Sandoval, 48, dies in ICE custody at Georgia's Folkston jail during a detainee hunger strike; ICE says staff found a ligature on his neck

The Georgia Bureau of Investigation is investigating; Sandoval had been moved to Folkston on Oct. 8, 15 days before he died.

Luis Sandoval, a 48-year-old from El Salvador, died Friday, Oct. 23, at the D. Ray James facility in Folkston, Georgia. The private prison company GEO Group runs the jail for ICE. ICE announced the death Saturday, Oct. 24. It says staff found him with a ligature around his neck at about 1:46 a.m., and he was pronounced dead at about 2:28 a.m. Its release also lists past convictions, including aggravated assault. Detainees at the complex are on a hunger strike. A striker, his wife, lawyers and advocates told The Guardian that officials have threatened to force-feed them.

“This was a preventable tragedy... Folkston must be shut down immediately.”Azadeh Shahshahani, Project South

Still open. The Georgia Bureau of Investigation confirmed it is investigating at the local sheriff's request. ICE says an autopsy will determine the cause and manner of death.

How big the hunger strike is depends on who counts73 detainees were reported as the starting group of strikers.3 details
  • 73 detainees were reported as the starting group of strikers.
  • ICE said 13 were still striking on Oct. 16.
  • Advocates estimated at least 500 at the protest's peak — a different date and a different measure than ICE's count.
15 stories that didn't make the cutSeen by the desk, ranked, and not run. The number is where each stood in the day's order.

News

  • 44Pentagon readies options to renew strikes on Iran after the elections; markets braceReported Pentagon options to renew Iran strikes after the elections, with markets bracing; cut because Iran is already covered by Trump's remarks and Tehran's talks story.
  • 45Court rules Trump's LA National Guard deployment violated the lawA court ruled Trump's Los Angeles National Guard deployment violated the law; cut for space in an election-heavy issue, though the ruling is a strong promotion candidate.
  • 47ICE failed to monitor detainee Chaofeng Ge before his suicideICE reportedly failed to monitor detainee Chaofeng Ge, flagged as a suicide risk, before his death; cut because a separate ICE custody death already leads, though it could pair.
  • 48Capitol Hill expects a Hegseth impeachment in the lame duckCapitol Hill chatter expects a Hegseth impeachment push in the lame duck; cut because it rests on a single social-media post and describes expectations, not action.
  • 49Fed expected to lead a G7 hawkish rate pauseBloomberg expects the Fed to lead a hawkish G7 rate pause this week; cut because it previews a decision not yet made and is markets-focused rather than political.
  • 51Clark County early vote: possibly the GOP's worst day of 2026Jon Ralston flags Clark County's early vote as possibly the GOP's worst day of 2026; cut because one day of turnout is thin evidence and the source is a social post.
  • 56Maine families face record winter heating costsMaine families face record winter heating costs; cut because it is a human-interest piece, and its political stakes are better carried by the Reuters Senate heating-oil story.
  • 57Doctors' offices charge hospital facility feesDoctors' offices are billing hospital facility fees, charging patients up to 10 times more; cut for space, but it is a slow-burn health-cost policy story worth promoting.
  • 58Forbes: Trump pulled in ~$1.4B from cryptoA Forbes estimate says Trump has made about $1.4 billion from crypto; cut because it arrived via a social post, so the Forbes figures need checking before it runs.

Election related

  • 46Russia steps up midterm influence operationsNPR reports Russia is stepping up midterm influence operations; cut because the headline lacks specifics on methods or reach, pending a closer read of the reporting.
  • 50Some early voting sites in rural Alaska villages haven't opened yetSome early voting sites in rural Alaska villages have not opened; cut for space, though it bears on access in a contested Senate race and could fold into Alaska coverage.
  • 52Early voting begins in New YorkEarly voting opened in New York with key races to watch; cut as a routine calendar item, with early-vote coverage already carried by North Carolina and Michigan.
  • 53California wealth tax ballot measure: billionaires vastly outspend supportersMore than $351 million has been spent on California's wealth tax measure, with billionaires vastly outspending supporters; cut for space, a strong ballot-measure candidate.
  • 54Musk becomes the biggest midterm donor at $366MA post says Musk is now the biggest midterm donor at $366 million; cut because the figure comes from a social post and needs checking against FEC filings.
  • 55Heating oil emerges as a hurdle for Republicans in Senate racesReuters says heating oil costs are becoming a hurdle for Republicans in Senate races as winter nears; cut for space, though it could pair with the Maine heating-costs story.

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