Democrats win control of the House and Senate, flipping seven Republican Senate seats

People stand at voting booths decorated with American flags and the word “VOTE,” with a dog beside them. — TIME

Democrats win control of the House and Senate, flipping seven Republican Senate seats

Kansas, one of the seven, last elected a Democratic senator 94 years ago; Democrat Adam Hamilton beat Roger Marshall (Sen-R Kansas).

- Sept. 27 — Cook Political Report projected Republicans would lose the House and said a Democratic Senate majority was no longer a long shot. - Sept. 30 — Republicans moved Senate money to defend Texas and sent Trump to Ohio as Georgia and North Carolina slipped. - Oct. 7 — Cook moved Kansas to toss-up and projected Democrats gaining 2 to 6 Senate seats; they needed 4 for a majority. - Oct. 10 — Democrats' Senate Majority PAC began a $5 million Kansas ad buy; Republicans had already booked more than $10 million there. - Oct. 19 — Trump campaigned in Kansas with Marshall trailing Hamilton by under a point in one poll. - Oct. 21 — Trump promised farmers $8 billion in one-time diesel relief, with checks unlikely before Election Day. - Oct. 24 — Over 20 million had voted early; registered Democrats cast 45% of returned ballots, Republicans 30%. - Oct. 30 — CNN polls showed Democrats up 7 in Michigan and 6 in Texas; Maine and Kansas were statistical ties at 49% to 45%.

ContextThe president's party lost both chambers in four of 20 midterms from 1946 through 2022 (1946, 1954, 1994 and 2006), with an average Senate loss of 3.55 seats; George W. Bush lost six in 2006, Barack Obama nine in 2014. As of 9:30 a.m. Eastern on Nov. 4, AP had called 33 of 35 Senate races and 367 of 435 House races, per the Guardian's AP results page. Democrats had 228 called House seats to 139 for Republicans. Mississippi and Alaska's Senate races and 68 House races were still uncalled, so margins can move.

TIME9 sources

2usUpdatecontestedIran war

Iran says mines destroyed four tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, which the BBC has not verified; Trump says the war cost Republican votes but he does not regret it

Iran also claimed mines destroyed three tankers early Tuesday, Nov. 3, and says it halted or seized two other vessels.

- Oct. 21 — Iran and the Houthis claimed attacks on Gulf ships and Saudi oil sites. - Oct. 22-25 — The U.S. pulled staff from Saudi Arabia, then cut embassy staff across the region after an intelligence memo warned of Iranian plots against Americans. - Oct. 23 — Iran said it damaged seven tankers in Hormuz, which AP could not confirm. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, closed at $116.72 a barrel, its highest since April, CNBC reported. - Oct. 26 — Trump called it “decision time”: a deal, or resumed attacks to “finish it off.” A third U.S. carrier headed to the region. - Oct. 29 — A speedboat crew fixed two explosives to the tanker Louise 1 in Hormuz. Mediators pressed Iran to admit UN inspectors in exchange for partial sanctions relief. - Early Nov. — Iran offered to reopen Hormuz within two days if the U.S. lifted sanctions and its port blockade; the U.S. struck Iran's Qeshm Island.

ContextU.S. Central Command said Oct. 28 that the main shipping routes were clear of mines, a claim that doesn't cover every route Iran calls prohibited. In the 1987-88 mining campaign, mines damaged eight merchant ships across the Gulf and Gulf of Oman, sinking two. The ship-tracking site hormuz.now counted 9.3 commercial crossings a day in the week to Nov. 4. IMF PortWatch, which counts a little differently, logged 58.5 a day in January, before the war began Feb. 28. Both see only ships with transponders on.

CBS NEWS2 sources

3us

Trump says the U.S. will end its nearly $4 billion a year in military aid to Israel by year's end

The aid runs under a $38 billion, 10-year deal covering 2019 to 2028, and Politico reports more than 90% of the money goes to American defense companies.

- Oct. 14 — Axios reported Netanyahu pressed Trump on several calls for a new joint strike on Iran; the White House called that false. - Oct. 19 — Trump endorsed Netanyahu, saying the U.S. would hit Iran itself if Israelis picked anyone else. - Oct. 20 — Vice President JD Vance said he would not endorse Netanyahu in Israel's Oct. 27 election. - Oct. 22-23 — NYT reported U.S.-Israeli plans for possible strikes on Iran after the midterms; two Israeli sources told ABC strikes would almost certainly come soon after. - Oct. 27 — Officials said Israel's military chief resisted Netanyahu's push to strike before the vote; Netanyahu's office called a similar report “fake news.” - Oct. 30 — Final results gave Netanyahu's bloc 53 of the Knesset's 120 seats and Eisenkot's opposition bloc 48, short of the 61 either needs to govern, AP reported.

ContextThe 10-year deal was signed under President Barack Obama. The 2026 package is $3.3 billion in military grants plus $500 million for missile defense. The spending law enacted Feb. 3 ordered the grants paid within 30 days, so the cutoff may mostly reach 2027 and 2028; no public account shows what's left. Permanently canceling approved money takes a new law, and the nonbinding 10-year deal can't override Congress. Trump says arms sales to Israel would continue, so Israel could still buy American weapons.

THE GUARDIAN7 sources

4us

Trump says he will accept midterm results, blames Republican candidates and threatens to veto Democratic bills

He predicts Democrats will come to the table after a couple of months of vetoes.

What Trump signed after Democrats won the House in 2018: March 12, 2019: a conservation law protecting more than 1.3 million acres of wilderness, passed 363-62 in the House and 92-8 in the Senate. Aug. 2, 2019: a budget deal raising spending caps about $322 billion above existing law for fiscal 2020 and 2021; Democrats cast 219 of 284 House yes votes. Dec. 20, 2019: a defense law giving eligible federal workers up to 12 weeks of paid parental leave, passed 377-48 in the House and 86-8 in the Senate.

ContextOverriding a veto (a president's rejection of a bill) takes two-thirds of each chamber: 290 House votes and 67 Senate votes at full attendance. As of 9:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Nov. 4, NBC News estimated that Democrats would win at least 258 House seats. They had won 54 Senate seats, with Alaska and Mississippi uncalled. On those provisional counts, an override would still need 32 House Republicans and 13 Senate Republicans. Congresses controlled by the party opposing the president overrode 30 of 230 vetoes from 1969 through 2024. Before the election, Trump directed a Justice Department suit to block Alaska from certifying a loss by Dan Sullivan (Sen-R Alaska) in one scenario; a judge dismissed it on Nov. 1.

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL9 sources

5us

House Democrats plan probes of Trump's businesses, crypto and pardons; NBC now estimates at least 258 seats

Hakeem Jeffries (Rep-D New York) is in line to become the first Black speaker when the new House takes over Jan. 3, 2027.

What the Democratic majority can and cannot block on spending: Can block: Trump's fiscal 2027 request for about $1.5 trillion in defense, up $445 billion from the fiscal 2026 level. Cannot block on its own: more than $190 billion in multiyear immigration and border money, already enacted in 2025, stays law unless changed. Can block: Trump's proposed $73 billion cut to nondefense spending, if it is still unresolved when the new House arrives.

ContextDemocrats won 215 seats in 2024, so NBC's estimate would mean a gain of at least 43. Government funding expires Dec. 11, so the outgoing Congress can settle spending before Democrats take over.

WASHINGTON EXAMINER8 sources

6not newslongformData centers

33 local data center restrictions passed or led on Nov. 3; separately, Democrats who promised construction pauses won Texas, Georgia and Ohio governorships

Data center supporters won 1 measure, in North Dakota; in Ohio, residents of 21 municipalities turned to ballot measures or referendums against proposed projects.

What each new governor's pause promise can actually reach: Texas: withholding state permits can delay projects, but nothing shows that power can cancel approved private ones; ending tax incentives takes the Legislature. Georgia: local governments decide development applications, and Bottoms said she was unsure whether a statewide pause needs an executive order or legislation. Ohio: Acton's campaign sought legislation for a conditional moratorium (a pause with conditions attached), and state utility commissioners serve five-year terms, so taking office does not replace the commission.

ContextData centers are buildings full of computers that power AI systems. Before the vote, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, ordered state environmental regulators on Sept. 21 to stop issuing data center permits until power and water audits were done. CBRE, a commercial real estate firm, counted under 1,500 megawatts of data center capacity under construction and not yet spoken for in eight primary U.S. markets in mid-2026. That was about six months of demand. Ballotpedia lists 41 November data center measures, including proposals supporting development; the 33 comes from a separate tracker.

STATELINE3 sources

News news5 stories

Ongoing8 earlier updates42 days

This story has run 9 times over 42 days, starting Sep 23.

Sep 23Senate Democrats can force an Iran war powers vote this week, needing five Republican crossovers
Sep 27Cook Political Report now projects Republicans will lose the House, five weeks before Election Day
Sep 30Republicans move Senate money to defend Texas and send Trump to Ohio as Georgia and North Carolina slip
Oct 7Cook moves Kansas Senate race to toss-up and shifts North Carolina and New Hampshire toward Democrats
Oct 10UpdateDemocrats' Senate Majority PAC starts $5 million Kansas ad buy against Sen. Roger Marshall
Oct 19Trump campaigns in Kansas on Monday, Oct. 19, as Roger Marshall (Sen-R Kansas) trails Democrat Adam Hamilton by under a point in one poll
Oct 24Over 20 million have voted early; registered Democrats cast 45% of returned ballots, Republicans 30%
Oct 30CNN polls: Democrats lead by 7 in Michigan and 6 in Texas; Maine and Kansas, both 49% to 45%, are statistical ties
Nov 4Democrats win control of the House and Senate, flipping seven Republican Senate seats — this issue

TIMEBattle for the Senate

Democrats win control of the House and Senate, flipping seven Republican Senate seats

Kansas, one of the seven, last elected a Democratic senator 94 years ago; Democrat Adam Hamilton beat Roger Marshall (Sen-R Kansas).

Democrats won control of the House and Senate in the Tuesday, Nov. 3 midterm elections, ending Republican control of both chambers and the White House. They flipped Republican-held Senate seats in Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas, and AP has called all seven.

The polls. In Fox News's voter poll, 43% said one reason for their vote was to oppose Donald Trump and 16% said it was to support him. Two weeks before the vote, an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll put his approval at 37%, the lowest of this term, and his disapproval at 62%, a record across both terms. He had urged voters to "pretend I'm on the ballot," then said on election night that he was not on it.

The reaction. George W. Bush called his party's 2006 loss of Congress a "thumpin'." National Review, the conservative magazine, wrote of this one: "Last night was closer to Chernobyl."

The money. Elon Musk gave $474 million in disclosed donations to federal and state political groups since Jan. 1, 2025, by The New York Times's count. The Times says no donor has given more in one election cycle, apart from candidates paying for their own races. He spent about $290 million on the 2024 election. His response on X: "Guess my election-interfering space lasers didn't work this time."

What next. Democrats take control of Congress on Jan. 3.

Catch upwhat happened before · 8 earlier issues

Sept. 27 — Cook Political Report projected Republicans would lose the House and said a Democratic Senate majority was no longer a long shot.
Sept. 30 — Republicans moved Senate money to defend Texas and sent Trump to Ohio as Georgia and North Carolina slipped.
Oct. 7 — Cook moved Kansas to toss-up and projected Democrats gaining 2 to 6 Senate seats; they needed 4 for a majority.
Oct. 10 — Democrats' Senate Majority PAC began a $5 million Kansas ad buy; Republicans had already booked more than $10 million there.
Oct. 19 — Trump campaigned in Kansas with Marshall trailing Hamilton by under a point in one poll.
Oct. 21 — Trump promised farmers $8 billion in one-time diesel relief, with checks unlikely before Election Day.
Oct. 24 — Over 20 million had voted early; registered Democrats cast 45% of returned ballots, Republicans 30%.
Oct. 30 — CNN polls showed Democrats up 7 in Michigan and 6 in Texas; Maine and Kansas were statistical ties at 49% to 45%.

Oct 30CNN polls: Democrats lead by 7 in Michigan and 6 in Texas; Maine and Kansas, both 49% to 45%, are statistical ties

7 earlier issues

How prices and the war split the voteVoters who called prices crucial, 49% of the electorate: 65% Democratic, 33% Republican, per Fox's voter survey.2 details

Voters who called prices crucial, 49% of the electorate: 65% Democratic, 33% Republican, per Fox's voter survey.
Voters who called the Iran war crucial, 34% of the electorate: 71% Democratic, 27% Republican, per the same survey.

Ongoing31 earlier updates56 days

This story has run 32 times over 56 days, starting Sep 9.

CBS NEWSUpdateIran war

Iran says mines destroyed four tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, which the BBC has not verified; Trump says the war cost Republican votes but he does not regret it

Iran also claimed mines destroyed three tankers early Tuesday, Nov. 3, and says it halted or seized two other vessels.

The mines. Iran's Revolutionary Guards (the IRGC, a military force separate from the regular army that answers to the supreme leader) said Wednesday, Nov. 4, that the four tankers were using a prohibited route through Hormuz, the narrow channel out of the Persian Gulf. The BBC has not independently verified the claim. CBS says the statement has all four still burning; the BBC says two.

The midterms. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (Chief Negotiator, Iran) read the Tuesday, Nov. 3 election as Americans saying no to war. He wrote on X that if the U.S. government “betrays their public will to serve international paymasters and blackmailers, it will learn our NO comes with a Nightmare.”

Trump. He acknowledged the war contributed to Republican losses, then told The Wall Street Journal: “I don't think about it. I did the right thing. I would have done it again.” Asked by the Financial Times about another attack, he said the U.S. is “locked and loaded if we need to go, but there may be no need for it.”

What next. Indirect talks continue. Qatari mediators expect feedback on new ideas from Iranian and U.S. negotiators within 36 hours, according to Reuters, as cited by CBS.

Catch upwhat happened before · 31 earlier issues

Oct. 21 — Iran and the Houthis claimed attacks on Gulf ships and Saudi oil sites.
Oct. 22-25 — The U.S. pulled staff from Saudi Arabia, then cut embassy staff across the region after an intelligence memo warned of Iranian plots against Americans.
Oct. 23 — Iran said it damaged seven tankers in Hormuz, which AP could not confirm. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, closed at $116.72 a barrel, its highest since April, CNBC reported.
Oct. 26 — Trump called it “decision time”: a deal, or resumed attacks to “finish it off.” A third U.S. carrier headed to the region.
Oct. 29 — A speedboat crew fixed two explosives to the tanker Louise 1 in Hormuz. Mediators pressed Iran to admit UN inspectors in exchange for partial sanctions relief.
Early Nov. — Iran offered to reopen Hormuz within two days if the U.S. lifted sanctions and its port blockade; the U.S. struck Iran's Qeshm Island.

Nov 3UpdateIran says it can reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if the U.S. lifts sanctions and its port blockade; the U.S. strikes Iran's Qeshm Island as Trump says there's 'no rush' to decide on resuming the war

30 earlier issues

What the naval tracker recorded, and what the claims lackNov. 3-4 claims: independent reporting has named no ship Iran says it destroyed.3 details

Nov. 3-4 claims: independent reporting has named no ship Iran says it destroyed.
Oct. 28-30 attacks: a naval shipping-security center (JMIC) named Riti, Louise 1 and Arzanah in Hormuz, and Al Mayeda in the Gulf.
Cause: the center tied only Louise 1 to explosives on the hull and attributed the other three to projectiles.

Red take

Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if the U.S. lifts sanctions and its port blockade is a ransom demand, so Trump should hold the blockade. The Revolutionary Guards, a force answering to Iran's supreme leader, claim mines destroyed four tankers on a prohibited route, which the BBC has not verified. Pay now, and every government with mines learns that closing a sea lane earns a payout.

Blue take

Trump concedes the war contributed to Republican losses, then says "I don't think about it," and that is the wrong answer while talks are still alive. He should press the trade mediators put to Iran: UN inspectors for partial sanctions relief. Resume the attacks instead, and Americans in a region where embassies have already cut staff over warnings of Iranian plots are the ones exposed.

Ongoing6 earlier updates21 days

This story has run 7 times over 21 days, starting Oct 14.

Oct 14Netanyahu pressed Trump on several calls for a new joint strike on Iran, Axios reports
Oct 19UpdateTrump endorses Netanyahu, saying the US will hit Iran itself if Israelis pick anyone else
Oct 20UpdateVance says he won't endorse Netanyahu in Israel's Oct. 27 election, a day after Trump did
Oct 22UpdateU.S. and Israel have drawn up plans for possible new strikes on Iran after the Nov. 3 midterms, NYT reports
Oct 23UpdateTwo Israeli sources tell ABC that joint strikes on Iran will almost certainly come soon after the Nov. 3 midterms
Oct 27UpdateIsrael's military chief resisted Netanyahu's push for an Iran strike before the Oct. 27 vote, officials say
Nov 4Trump says the U.S. will end its nearly $4 billion a year in military aid to Israel by year's end — this issue

THE GUARDIAN

Trump says the U.S. will end its nearly $4 billion a year in military aid to Israel by year's end

The aid runs under a $38 billion, 10-year deal covering 2019 to 2028, and Politico reports more than 90% of the money goes to American defense companies.

The announcement. Donald Trump told Fox News on Election Day morning (Tuesday, Nov. 3) that the U.S. will stop its annual military aid to Israel. The Guardian, ABC, the Financial Times and Politico report the end of this year as the deadline; PBS reports next year. Trump said he and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reached the deal months ago, and that arms sales would continue.

His reason. He tied the decision to attacks on the aid from Abdul El-Sayed, Michigan's Democratic senator-elect:

“Why should we suffer the slings from lunatics like El-Sayed when they don't need it? ([TS]per SIPRI, Israel spent $48.3 billion on its military in 2025, up from $23.4 billion in 2022) It's a bad talking point.”Donald Trump

The midterms. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a former Republican congresswoman from Georgia, pointed to the midterms: “Amazing how being on the verge of Republicans getting wiped out in the midterms changes hearts and minds.”

Israel's reaction. Finance Ministry officials told the Walla news site they were surprised, The Times of Israel reported. Netanyahu's office did not immediately answer ABC News. His rivals used the news against him as he tries to build a governing majority.

“The fact that the security establishment, along with Israeli citizens, is learning about a change in the strategic relationship framework through the media highlights just how much Benjamin Netanyahu's conduct poses a genuine danger.”Gadi Eisenkot (opposition figure, Israel)

Still open. Trump has not said which aid ends or how. Politico says the move could set up a standoff with Congress.

Catch upwhat happened before · 6 earlier issues

Oct. 14 — Axios reported Netanyahu pressed Trump on several calls for a new joint strike on Iran; the White House called that false.
Oct. 19 — Trump endorsed Netanyahu, saying the U.S. would hit Iran itself if Israelis picked anyone else.
Oct. 20 — Vice President JD Vance said he would not endorse Netanyahu in Israel's Oct. 27 election.
Oct. 22-23 — NYT reported U.S.-Israeli plans for possible strikes on Iran after the midterms; two Israeli sources told ABC strikes would almost certainly come soon after.
Oct. 27 — Officials said Israel's military chief resisted Netanyahu's push to strike before the vote; Netanyahu's office called a similar report “fake news.”
Oct. 30 — Final results gave Netanyahu's bloc 53 of the Knesset's 120 seats and Eisenkot's opposition bloc 48, short of the 61 either needs to govern, AP reported.

Oct 27UpdateIsrael's military chief resisted Netanyahu's push for an Iran strike before the Oct. 27 vote, officials say

5 earlier issues

What ending the grants would leave unresolved on existing weapons ordersUnpaid bills: Pentagon standard sales terms make Israel responsible for the total cost, including anything above U.S. grants.3 details

Unpaid bills: Pentagon standard sales terms make Israel responsible for the total cost, including anything above U.S. grants.
F-35 fighter jets: Israel's purchases rely partly on future annual grants, per the Congressional Research Service; the published rules require Israeli funds if those grants fall short.
Cancellations: if Israel cancels, Israel pays the resulting costs; if Washington cancels in the national interest, the U.S. pays supplier termination costs.

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Trump says he will accept midterm results, blames Republican candidates and threatens to veto Democratic bills

He predicts Democrats will come to the table after a couple of months of vetoes.

The results. Donald Trump told The New York Times he would accept the results of the Nov. 3 midterms (the congressional elections held midway through a president's term), in which Democrats won the House and Senate, and he congratulated them. He blamed Republican candidates for the losses.

The veto. Trump told CBS News: “I have the ultimate power — it's called 'veto.'” He added: “I think they're gonna want to work with me. Otherwise, I'd just veto everything, and they're not gonna want that.” On Fox News late Tuesday, Nov. 3, he said: “After a couple of months of vetoes, they'll call and they'll say, 'How do we get this stuff done?'”

BackgroundWhat Trump signed after Democrats won the House in 20183 facts

March 12, 2019: a conservation law protecting more than 1.3 million acres of wilderness, passed 363-62 in the House and 92-8 in the Senate.
Aug. 2, 2019: a budget deal raising spending caps about $322 billion above existing law for fiscal 2020 and 2021; Democrats cast 219 of 284 House yes votes.
Dec. 20, 2019: a defense law giving eligible federal workers up to 12 weeks of paid parental leave, passed 377-48 in the House and 86-8 in the Senate.

WASHINGTON EXAMINER

House Democrats plan probes of Trump's businesses, crypto and pardons; NBC now estimates at least 258 seats

Hakeem Jeffries (Rep-D New York) is in line to become the first Black speaker when the new House takes over Jan. 3, 2027.

Democrats passed the 218 seats needed for a majority early Wednesday, Nov. 4, per the AP. NBC News estimated about 244 Democratic seats on election night and at least 258 by 9:30 a.m. ET. By then it had called 231 seats for Democrats and 144 for Republicans, with 60 uncalled.

The deciding seat. Democrat Johnny Garcia delivered the 218th seat, per the AP, by winning Texas's 35th District, which was redrawn in 2025 to favor Republicans.

The investigations. The majority brings subpoena power (the legal power to force testimony and documents). Democrats plan to probe Trump's family businesses, immigration enforcement, pardons and the Jeffrey Epstein matter. The Oversight Committee, under incoming chair Robert Garcia (Rep-D California), plans to examine Trump's cryptocurrency ventures. Homeland Security Committee Democrats posted a message on X to DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin: "Clear your calendar."

Still open. Impeachment. Jeffries says Democrats "haven't ruled anything in and we haven't ruled anything out."

BackgroundWhat the Democratic majority can and cannot block on spending3 facts

Can block: Trump's fiscal 2027 request for about $1.5 trillion in defense, up $445 billion from the fiscal 2026 level.
Cannot block on its own: more than $190 billion in multiyear immigration and border money, already enacted in 2025, stays law unless changed.
Can block: Trump's proposed $73 billion cut to nondefense spending, if it is still unresolved when the new House arrives.

Quick bites15

Courts2 bites

Supreme Court justices appeared inclined to side with Catholic preschools challenging Colorado's universal pre-K equal-enrollment rules.
LOS ANGELES TIMES
The schools, which deny admission to children of LGBTQ parents, say their exclusion from the program created by a 2020 ballot measure violates their religious rights.
From the benchJustice Kavanaugh to Colorado's attorney: "Why not seek the win/win?"2 details

Justice Kavanaugh to Colorado's attorney: "Why not seek the win/win?"

Justice Sotomayor: "You want an official statement by the State that I will subsidize you with public money even though – because I have a right to reject children."
Judge temporarily blocks deportations of detained Afghans to Afghanistan or Pakistan until Saturday, Nov. 7
NBC NEWS
Judge Valerie Caproni's order came after advocates and lawmakers warned the detainees' lives would be at risk, and the government told the court ICE has no flights arranged before the end of the week.
Who is affectedNBC News says more than 80 detained Afghans contacted advocates after ICE notices of possible deportation this week; The Free…3 details

NBC News says more than 80 detained Afghans contacted advocates after ICE notices of possible deportation this week; The Free Press says as many as 80.

Those detained include people who said they assisted U.S. forces.

A letter led by Scott Peters (Rep-D California) and signed by 65 other members of Congress warned against the deportations, NBC News reports.

Also tonight3 bites

Nasdaq 100 futures fell as much as 2.5% on the Democratic sweep, then rose by Wednesday morning, Nov. 4
NBC NEWS
Losses narrowed by late Tuesday, Nov. 3, with Nasdaq 100 futures down more than 1%, S&P 500 futures down more than 0.5% and Dow futures down more than 100 points, NBC News reported. JPMorgan analysts warned of an "AI sell-off on assumed higher regulation." By Wednesday morning, futures had turned higher. Dow futures were up nearly 900 points, S&P 500 futures about 1% and Nasdaq 100 futures about 0.5%, CNBC reported.
Market detailsThe Nasdaq 100 had gained 40% since Election Day 2024, largely on the AI boom, per NBC News.4 details

The Nasdaq 100 had gained 40% since Election Day 2024, largely on the AI boom, per NBC News.

It had already entered a correction, a 10% drop from its recent high, on Monday, Nov. 2, the day before the election, per NBC News.

Analysts flagged possible data-center restrictions, higher taxes and investigations, per The Wall Street Journal.

Stocks and the dollar fell globally while Treasuries gained overnight, per The Wall Street Journal; NBC said Treasury yields declined slightly.
DOJ issues at least 20 target letters to Democrats, including lawyer Marc Elias, in Alaska 'Decoy Dan' probe, ABC reports
PBS NEWSHOURUpdate
A grand jury is examining possible conspiracy and donor fraud over Dan J. Sullivan, ABC reports. He shares a name with Dan Sullivan (Sen-R Alaska) and drew 2.5% in August's primary. Investigators want to know if Democrats got him to run to confuse voters and pull votes from the senator, CBS News and the AP report. Elias, a top Democratic election lawyer, said the department targeted him "on Election Day," Tuesday, Nov. 3.
Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

Oct. 23 — At Trump's direction, the Justice Department sued to block Alaska from certifying its Senate result if the senator lost and votes for Dan J. Sullivan could have changed the outcome.

Oct. 28 — The New York Times reported alleged Democratic efforts to recruit Dan J. Sullivan; Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola denies any involvement.

Oct. 30 — Alaska's U.S. attorney, Michael Heyman, said a criminal probe was "ongoing."

Nov. 1 — A federal judge dismissed the suit, finding the department lacked standing; it filed notice of appeal the same day.

Nov 3UpdateFederal judge dismisses DOJ suit to block Alaska Senate certification if Dan Sullivan (Sen-R Alaska) loses
Counts and responsesLetters: ABC reports at least 20 target letters; Fox reports more than 20 target and preservation letters combined.3 details

Letters: ABC reports at least 20 target letters; Fox reports more than 20 target and preservation letters combined.

Subpoenas: PBS and ABC report more than 100; Fox reports more than 120, including more than 30 in 24 hours after a New York Times report, per a source.

Attorney General Todd Blanche said "everybody agrees that there is a FRAUD on the ballot"; Elias called the investigation a sham, while ABC and the Guardian called its timing and early stage unusual.

Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times, starting Nov 3.
Nov 3UpdateFederal judge dismisses DOJ suit to block Alaska Senate certification if Dan Sullivan (Sen-R Alaska) loses
Nov 4UpdateDOJ issues at least 20 target letters to Democrats, including lawyer Marc Elias, in Alaska 'Decoy Dan' probe, ABC reports — this issue
House Republicans question whether Speaker Mike Johnson can survive next week's leadership elections after midterm losses
AXIOS
House Republicans hold leadership elections Nov. 10, and candidates must declare by Nov. 6, Axios reports. The vote picks leaders for the next Congress, where Republicans will be in the minority. Johnson stays speaker only until that Congress convenes Jan. 3. One House Republican told Axios every member of leadership will face a challenger. Another told Axios they no longer see a path for Johnson to stay atop the conference. Johnson went to more than 40 districts in 22 states trying to save the majority, per Axios.

Elections10 bites

AP Voter Poll: about three-quarters of midterm voters rate economy negatively, two-thirds say Trump's policies worsened it
PBS NEWSHOUR
SSRS, a polling firm, ran the AP Voter Poll for AP and six news outlets, including CNN and Fox News. It surveyed about 80,000 registered voters from Oct. 22 through Election Day. About 70% of them want Congress to provide more checks on the presidency. About 6 in 10 call military action against Iran the wrong decision.
Who voted, and on whatEconomy as top issue: about 4 in 10 voters.3 details

Economy as top issue: about 4 in 10 voters.

State of democracy as top issue: about 3 in 10 voters.

About 7 in 10 voters under 30 backed the Democratic House candidate, though they were only about 1 in 10 voters.
Midterm voting ran without major disruption or federal interference, despite a New York scanner failure
CNN
Machines in Westchester County, New York, could not scan as many as 250,000 ballots at 332 polling places, County Executive Ken Jenkins said. Elsewhere, the federal interference many had feared did not happen, CNN reports. Justice Department poll monitors caused no reported disturbances, and ICE agents were not sent to polling places. A few bomb threats turned out to be false, a senior law enforcement source told CNN.
Westchester scanner failureState election officials said a software update made after the machines were tested reached only one town's machines; voters…3 details

State election officials said a software update made after the machines were tested reached only one town's machines; voters elsewhere put ballots in emergency bags, AP reported.

The bagged ballots were still uncounted early Wednesday, Nov. 4; a judge ordered counting to start by 11 a.m. that day, The Journal News reported.

AP found no credible evidence for online claims of Democratic cheating. Mike Lawler (Rep-R New York) told Fox News: "There's no shenanigans."
Democrats flip governorships in Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Nevada, clinching first majority in 16 years
NBC NEWS
Republicans held 26 governorships to Democrats' 24 before the 36 races on Tuesday, Nov. 3. The Associated Press called Nevada for Democrat Aaron Ford at 4:46 a.m. ET Wednesday, Nov. 4, the fifth flip. With no Republican pickups called, Democrats will hold 28 governorships to Republicans' 20 in called races. Democrats also held Maine and Wisconsin, Stateline reports.

Two races are uncalled. In Kansas, Democrat Cindy Holscher led Republican Ty Masterson 50.3% to 49.7%, with about 98% of the expected vote in, per NBC News as of 9:26 a.m. ET. In Alaska, Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins led with 49.2%, with about 74% in. Below 50%, the race goes to a ranked-choice count on Nov. 18.
Who wonFive Black candidates won governorships, NBC News reports: Democrats Wes Moore in Maryland, Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia, David…2 details

Five Black candidates won governorships, NBC News reports: Democrats Wes Moore in Maryland, Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia, David Crowley in Wisconsin and Aaron Ford in Nevada, and Republican Byron Donalds in Florida.

Bottoms will be the first Black woman governor in U.S. history.
Republicans on track for 0 of 4 Florida and 1 of 5 Texas House seats they redrew to gain
AXIOS Redistricting fights
That is 1 of 9 seats Republicans redrew in the two states to win, Axios reports. This summer, Republicans believed new maps had created 16 more GOP-friendly House seats nationwide, Axios reported Oct. 20. In Tennessee, Scott DesJarlais (Rep-R Tennessee) trails Democrat Victoria Broderick by 280 votes in the secretary of state's unofficial final results. Axios says redistricting made his district nearly 20 percentage points less Republican.
Other redrawn mapsOhio: Greg Landsman (Rep-D Ohio) and Marcy Kaptur (Rep-D Ohio) held seats Republicans redrew against them, per Axios.4 details

Ohio: Greg Landsman (Rep-D Ohio) and Marcy Kaptur (Rep-D Ohio) held seats Republicans redrew against them, per Axios.

Alabama: Shomari Figures (Rep-D Alabama) is set to win comfortably in a seat drawn to favor Republicans, per Axios.

North Carolina: Democrats appeared on track for multiple flips, Axios reports.

Tennessee: Republicans did pick up a Democratic-held seat, per Axios.
Democrats win Texas Senate, governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general races; first Senate win since 1988
AXIOS
The AP called the Senate race for Democrat James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton. It called the governor's race for Democrat Gina Hinojosa. She beat Gov. Greg Abbott, a three-term Republican. Democrat Vikki Goodwin beat Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, per the AP, and Patrick conceded. In the race for attorney general, Republican Mayes Middleton conceded to Democrat Nathan Johnson, The Texas Tribune says.

Texans last elected a Democratic governor in 1990, per TIME.

Elon Musk gave $158 million in September to the Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP super PAC that paid for pro-Paxton ads, Axios reported in October. He gave Abbott's campaign at least $5.5 million this cycle, Axios reports.

Axios and TIME say Texas's 40 electoral votes are potentially in play in 2028.
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed defeats Republican Mike Rogers 51.9%-46.1% in Michigan Senate race, will be first Muslim senator
TIME Michigan Senate race
El-Sayed, 42, led 51.9% to 46.1% with about 85% counted when AP called the race at 2:27 a.m. Wednesday, Nov. 4. The win keeps this open seat Democratic in a state Trump won by 1.4 points in 2024.
What he won throughSpending against him: NBC News reports an AIPAC-affiliated group spent more than $30 million in the primary; Fox News puts AIPAC's…3 details

Spending against him: NBC News reports an AIPAC-affiliated group spent more than $30 million in the primary; Fox News puts AIPAC's campaign at roughly $42 million.

Trump and others called him a "jihadist," according to TIME.

Haley Stevens (Rep-D Michigan), his primary rival, endorsed Rogers two days before the election, TIME reports.
Maryland voters exempt congressional maps from state compactness rules 60%-40%, so Democrats could redraw before 2028
THE HILL Redistricting fights
AP called Question 3's passage Tuesday night, Nov. 3. Unofficial state results early Wednesday, Nov. 4, had it passing 60% to 40%. It undercuts the 2022 ruling in which a judge struck down the last Democratic map as an extreme partisan gerrymander, and its passage is a win for Gov. Wes Moore, a Democrat. Democrats already hold seven of Maryland's eight House seats, so the obvious target is the 1st District of Andy Harris (Rep-R Maryland).
Missouri voters reject abortion rights repeal 55.2%-44.8%, keeping abortion legal up to fetal viability
THE HILL
Amendment 3 would have repealed the abortion rights amendment that passed with 51.6% in 2024 and banned gender-affirming care for minors. AP called the race at 11:18 p.m. ET Tuesday, Nov. 3, with about 94% of votes counted.

The Washington Examiner says this was the first attempt to repeal a voter-approved abortion rights amendment by ballot.

Abortion rights supporters outspent Amendment 3 backers by roughly $7 million, per October filings cited by the Washington Examiner.
Idaho voters reject Proposition 1 56%-44%, keeping the state's abortion ban in place since 2022
NBC NEWS
Prop 1 trailed 56% to 44% with 95% of the vote counted, the Washington Examiner reported Wednesday, Nov. 4. NBC News projects it failed, and its backers conceded. The measure would have protected abortion until fetal viability starting in 2027. Supporters pointed to a medical-journal study finding almost a third of Idaho OB-GYNs moved away, stopped practicing or retired from August 2022 to December 2024.
California's 5% billionaire wealth tax trails in early results; voters reject voter ID requirement
LOS ANGELES TIMES
Proposition 40, a one-time tax on Californians worth over $1 billion, would affect roughly 200 billionaires, and opponents raised roughly 10 times as much as the "yes" side. As of 3:18 a.m. Wednesday, Nov. 4, No led 55.6% to 44.4% with about 60% of the expected vote counted, per results posted by CBS 8 San Diego. AP called Proposition 39's defeat at 9:39 p.m. Tuesday, Nov. 3.
Why it split DemocratsPurpose: mainly to offset federal healthcare cuts; the union backing the measure estimates California will lose $100 billion over…3 details

Purpose: mainly to offset federal healthcare cuts; the union backing the measure estimates California will lose $100 billion over five years.

Bernie Sanders (Sen-I Vermont) supported the tax.

Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, warned it would drive the wealthy out.

Elections1 races

1 closest races

pAlaska SenateMary Peltola 86.67%▲17.313.53%Sullivan

POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: Sullivan is down about eighteen points.

Two markets, one question

Alaska Senate

Nov 4, 8:36 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.4pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 86.85%, Kalshi 86.50%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 13.55%, Kalshi 13.50%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.

Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 87% · Dan Sullivan 14%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Mary Peltola (D)7 days ago

Polymarket$2.9M70.5%

Kalshi606K contracts · 85%/88%70.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move+16pp

Dan Sullivan (R)7 days ago

Polymarket$1.8M—

Kalshi834K contracts · 12%/15%33%

venue gap—

7-day move-16pp

Every sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Nov 4, 8:36 AM CT.
Day	Mary Peltola · Polymarket	Mary Peltola · Kalshi	Dan Sullivan · Polymarket	Dan Sullivan · Kalshi
7 days ago	70.50%	70.0%	—	33.0%
6 days ago	69.50%	68.0%	—	33.0%
5 days ago	72.50%	68.0%	29.50%	34.0%
4 days ago	74.50%	71.0%	26.50%	30.0%
3 days ago	72.50%	72.0%	27.50%	28.0%
2 days ago	74.50%	69.0%	26.00%	31.0%
yesterday	86.60%	93.2%	13.45%	9.0%
today	86.85%	86.5%	13.55%	13.5%

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Nov 4, 8:36 AM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Not news news1 story

STATELINEData centers

33 local data center restrictions passed or led on Nov. 3; separately, Democrats who promised construction pauses won Texas, Georgia and Ohio governorships

Data center supporters won 1 measure, in North Dakota; in Ohio, residents of 21 municipalities turned to ballot measures or referendums against proposed projects.

The votes. Local measures restricting data centers passed or were leading in 33 places late Tuesday, Nov. 3, per the tracker Data Centers on the Ballot. Stateline counted roughly a dozen more such measures with no results yet, and did not say how many of the 33 had passed outright. Nick Owens of Conserve Ohio described "people coming together across communities, putting partisan differences aside."

The voters. In an NBC exit poll (a survey of people who had just voted), 56% called AI and data centers a crucial or major factor in their vote for Congress. In a UMass Amherst poll earlier this year, 11% of Americans said they would support an AI data center in their community.

The governors. Democrats Gina Hinojosa, Keisha Lance Bottoms and Amy Acton won the Texas, Georgia and Ohio governor's races, per AP calls, after promising to stop construction. Nothing in the results shows those promises decided the races. Bloomberg reports that developers planning dozens of AI campuses in Texas now face upheaval.

Still open. The 33 combines measures that had passed with measures still leading late Tuesday, Nov. 3, so the count is not final.

What each new governor's pause promise can actually reachTexas: withholding state permits can delay projects, but nothing shows that power can cancel approved private ones; ending tax…3 details

Texas: withholding state permits can delay projects, but nothing shows that power can cancel approved private ones; ending tax incentives takes the Legislature.
Georgia: local governments decide development applications, and Bottoms said she was unsure whether a statewide pause needs an executive order or legislation.
Ohio: Acton's campaign sought legislation for a conditional moratorium (a pause with conditions attached), and state utility commissioners serve five-year terms, so taking office does not replace the commission.

Nov 42026

Executive summary6 stories

News news5

Not news news1

News news5 stories

Kansas, one of the seven, last elected a Democratic senator 94 years ago; Democrat Adam Hamilton beat Roger Marshall (Sen-R Kansas).

Iran also claimed mines destroyed three tankers early Tuesday, Nov. 3, and says it halted or seized two other vessels.

The aid runs under a $38 billion, 10-year deal covering 2019 to 2028, and Politico reports more than 90% of the money goes to American defense companies.

He predicts Democrats will come to the table after a couple of months of vetoes.

Hakeem Jeffries (Rep-D New York) is in line to become the first Black speaker when the new House takes over Jan. 3, 2027.

Quick bites15

Supreme Court justices appeared inclined to side with Catholic preschools challenging Colorado's universal pre-K equal-enrollment rules.

Judge temporarily blocks deportations of detained Afghans to Afghanistan or Pakistan until Saturday, Nov. 7

Nasdaq 100 futures fell as much as 2.5% on the Democratic sweep, then rose by Wednesday morning, Nov. 4

DOJ issues at least 20 target letters to Democrats, including lawyer Marc Elias, in Alaska 'Decoy Dan' probe, ABC reports

House Republicans question whether Speaker Mike Johnson can survive next week's leadership elections after midterm losses

AP Voter Poll: about three-quarters of midterm voters rate economy negatively, two-thirds say Trump's policies worsened it

Midterm voting ran without major disruption or federal interference, despite a New York scanner failure

Democrats flip governorships in Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Nevada, clinching first majority in 16 years

Republicans on track for 0 of 4 Florida and 1 of 5 Texas House seats they redrew to gain

Democrats win Texas Senate, governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general races; first Senate win since 1988

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed defeats Republican Mike Rogers 51.9%-46.1% in Michigan Senate race, will be first Muslim senator

Maryland voters exempt congressional maps from state compactness rules 60%-40%, so Democrats could redraw before 2028

Missouri voters reject abortion rights repeal 55.2%-44.8%, keeping abortion legal up to fetal viability

Idaho voters reject Proposition 1 56%-44%, keeping the state's abortion ban in place since 2022

California's 5% billionaire wealth tax trails in early results; voters reject voter ID requirement

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Alaska Senate

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Data center supporters won 1 measure, in North Dakota; in Ohio, residents of 21 municipalities turned to ballot measures or referendums against proposed projects.

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