Political Guyentist
Political Guyentist

Saturday

Vance speaks with both hands raised while Trump sits in the foreground, with flags and gold curtains behind them.
Axios
1usUpdatecontestedIran war

Vance runs indirect talks with Iran on a ceasefire and new nuclear talks while Trump weighs renewed strikes

A proposed meeting of U.S. and Iranian technical teams has not happened, and Qatar is pushing both sides toward an interim deal.

- Oct. 23 — Intelligence chief Jay Clayton warned Iranian plots to kill Americans were at 'advanced stages'; the U.S. cut embassy staff in four countries. - Oct. 26 — Trump called it 'decision time': a deal or resumed attacks; a third U.S. aircraft carrier headed to the region. - Oct. 27 — Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani envoys met Iran's security chiefs in Tehran to push for a deal. - Oct. 29 — Qatar-led mediators urged Iran to admit UN inspectors for partial sanctions relief; Trump confirmed Vance had written to Iranian officials. - Oct. 30 — Fox News, CNN and The Washington Post reported U.S. forces were being moved to give Trump the option of strikes after the Nov. 3 midterms. - Nov. 2–3 — Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if the U.S. lifted sanctions and its blockade; the U.S. struck Qeshm Island. - Nov. 4 — Iran claimed its mines destroyed tankers in the strait; BBC Verify found no evidence. Vance wrote on X that the war cost Republicans the midterms, and Trump called that 'largely true.' - Nov. 5 — Trump met his security team and said he'd decide on strikes 'soon.' Axios reported Qatar's two-day draft: the U.S. lifts the blockade and frees some funds, Iran invites inspectors, then the strait reopens.

ContextThe War Powers Resolution (the 1973 law limiting how long a president can fight without Congress) allows 60 days after notice. Trump notified Congress March 2, setting a May 1 deadline. He then argued the April 7 ceasefire ended the war, so new strikes start a fresh clock. Lawfare argues the blockade kept the old clock running, so the deadline has already passed.

AXIOS4 sources

2uscontested

Trump names Stephen Miller White House chief of staff, replacing Susie Wiles after Republicans lost the House and Senate

Miller starts Monday, Nov. 9; Wiles, who resigned Thursday, Nov. 5, moves to Trump's political operation.

On Oct. 15, Politico Playbook reported that Trump was considering a replacement for Wiles, and Trump called it "fake news." White House Counsel Will Scharf then demanded that Politico correct or retract that story and two others, Axios reported on Wednesday, Oct. 21.

ContextMiller was deputy chief of staff for policy and already pressed agencies to supply deportation resources. The chief of staff runs the White House staff and decides who and what reaches Trump, so the new job carries his reach well past immigration. Fast swaps after a bad midterm are uncommon. Eight midterms since 1986 flipped a chamber. By our count from tenure dates, the chief changed within 90 days only twice: Pete Rouse to Bill Daley (Jan. 13, 2011) and John Kelly to Mick Mulvaney (Jan. 2, 2019). Miller starts Monday, Nov. 9, six days after the Nov. 3 vote.

POLITICO12 sources

3usJobs reports

Employers added 165,000 jobs in October against a 65,000 forecast; unemployment fell to 4.1%

Hourly pay rose 3.1% from a year earlier, still behind inflation; futures traders now put a December Fed rate increase at 77%.

Which employers supplied October's hiring: Health care: +41,600 Government: +6,000 All other employers: +117,400

ContextHiring this year has averaged 86,000 jobs a month, AP reported. That is up from 9,700 a month in 2025 but below the 166,000 average of 2023 and 2024. Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, the latest yearly rate the Labor Department has published. Economist Heather Long wrote on X that inflation has wiped out wage gains for seven straight months. The Fed raised its benchmark rate in September and held it in October. After the Nov. 6 report, futures traders put the odds of a December hike, which would make loans cost more, at 77%. That is up about 10 points from Thursday, Nov. 5, according to CME's FedWatch, AP reported.

PBS NEWSHOUR10 sources

4usMeasles outbreak

U.S. measles cases reach 5,182 in 45 states and D.C. as PAHO prepares to review U.S. elimination status

CDC has confirmed 4 measles deaths in 2026; state health officials have reported 8, and CDC says its reviews are still pending.

What this review tests: The test: one chain of the same virus strain spreading without a break inside the country for at least 12 months. The clock: PAHO counts from Jan. 20, 2025, so the 12-month mark passed on Jan. 20, 2026. The evidence gap: CDC says gene sequencing can rule out links between outbreaks but cannot prove a link without case-tracing data.

ContextThe CDC counted 2,288 measles cases in all of 2025 and 285 in 2024. This year's 5,182 is more than double the 2025 total. Before 2025, the most in any year since the U.S. declared measles eliminated in 2000 was 1,274, in 2019, per CDC. Kindergarten MMR coverage fell to 92.4% in the 2025-26 school year, below the 95% experts say stops spread, per ABC News. The death count depends on who is counting. The CDC has confirmed four measles deaths in 2026 and says that total may change. State officials have reported eight. ABC News calls those eight deaths measles-associated, while the Washington Examiner describes them as probably linked to measles. Mexico faces the same PAHO review as the United States.

THE HILL4 sources

5usUpdateRussia-Ukraine war

European governments want Russia to end its Ukraine war before the U.S. and Russia talk about a broader security deal

Zelensky, ahead of the Nov. 10–11 Abu Dhabi talks, wants allies to put in writing who would defend Ukraine, and how fast, if Russia attacks again.

- Oct. 9–11 — Trump lifted sanctions on Russian diesel and said Ukraine needs "a new president" after Zelensky kept striking Russian refineries. - Oct. 12–16 — Trump announced a refinery-only energy ceasefire Moscow never confirmed. Ukraine hit a Russian refinery three days later, saying Russia never stopped. - Oct. 16–17 — EU leaders said they "regret" the diesel move. Trump called Zelensky "not a good guy." - Oct. 19–20 — After a Ukrainian drone hit a St. Petersburg oil terminal, Trump told Zelensky to let "somebody else" negotiate. - Oct. 20 — Brian Fitzpatrick (Rep-R Pennsylvania) and Don Bacon (Rep-R Nebraska) threatened to block Trump's agenda over Ukraine. - Oct. 21–22 — Envoy Steve Witkoff carried Oslo proposals to Putin. Putin agreed "in principle" to restart three-way talks, suspended since February. Overnight, Russia fired 21 ballistic missiles at Kyiv, Zelensky said. - Oct. 27 — Three tankers carrying about 140,000 tonnes of Russian diesel were headed for the U.S. under Trump's deal, the Financial Times reported. - Nov. 2 — Witkoff said the U.S. will mediate working-level talks in Abu Dhabi on Nov. 10–11.

ContextTrump has disclosed no terms for the broader U.S.–Russia security deal that worries Europe. Russia's last written demands came in a December 2021 draft treaty. It would have barred Ukraine from NATO and pulled allied forces back to where they stood in May 1997, before NATO took in former Soviet-bloc states. Ukraine already has a written U.S. promise, but it is thin. A 2024 pact only requires senior officials to meet within 24 hours of an attack, and it commits no troops. That gap is why Zelensky wants who, what and when spelled out on paper.

BLOOMBERG4 sources

6usUpdate

Justice Department national security chief John Eisenberg and Miami U.S. attorney Jason Reding Quiñones, who ran the probe of officials who investigated Trump, resign

Their exits on Friday, Nov. 6, follow Civil Rights Division chief Harmeet Dhillon's resignation on Thursday, Nov. 5, making three senior departures in two days.

On Oct. 9, the Justice Department asked a DC grand jury to indict Cassidy Hutchinson, the former White House aide who testified to Congress about Jan. 6, on charges of lying to Congress in her 2022 testimony. Dhillon's Civil Rights Division ran the case instead of the usual DC prosecutors. On Oct. 28, the grand jury refused to charge her, though prosecutors can try again.

ContextIn public, neither man gave a reason. Blanche praised both, and Quiñones left with "immense pride" and "profound gratitude," AP reported. Unnamed officials told a different story. Senior administration officials told Bloomberg Law that Blanche forced Eisenberg out. They said Eisenberg had slowed Trump's demands to subpoena reporters about their sources, including New York Times reporters who wrote about the Qatari-donated jet. People familiar with the matter told AP that Washington officials were frustrated with how Quiñones ran the probe. Investigators have put off planned grand jury testimony from several witnesses in recent weeks, AP reported. Last April, a lead prosecutor on the John Brennan case was taken off the team after questioning its strength.

CBS NEWS10 sources

7not newslongformMedicaid and ACA cuts

Democratic election wins give Georgia, Kansas, Texas and Wisconsin a new opening to expand Medicaid; no specific plans yet

Georgia Gov.-elect Keisha Lance Bottoms calls full expansion a day-one priority, but Republicans keep the Georgia Senate, so she will need some of their votes.

Where an expansion bill can pass, and whose votes it needs: Georgia: Republicans hold the Senate 29–27, so at least two GOP senators must vote yes. Democrats' reported 91 House seats are exactly the 91 needed to pass a bill, and three House races are still unsettled. Kansas: Democrats flipped as many as 20 House seats, ending the Republican supermajority there, but Republicans appear to keep a House majority and a Senate supermajority, per Stateline. Expansion would need Republican votes in both chambers. Democrat Cindy Holscher, who campaigned on expansion, holds a narrow lead in the uncalled governor's race. Texas: Republicans hold the Senate 19–12, so at least four GOP senators are needed. Under the outgoing Senate's rules, bringing a bill to the floor could take six. Wisconsin: Reported Democratic majorities of 53–46 in the Assembly and 18–15 in the Senate could pass expansion with no Republican votes, if every Democrat votes yes.

ContextMedicaid is the joint federal-state health plan for people with low incomes. The Affordable Care Act's expansion opens it to adults earning up to 138% of the federal poverty level. Forty states have adopted it, and 10 have not. Bottoms cannot expand Medicaid on her own, because Georgia law bars a governor from expanding it by executive order and requires the legislature to act. In Kansas, outgoing Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly failed to win expansion in two terms. She blamed the Republican House speaker and called the refusal "the dumbest thing Kansas has ever done," per the Kansas Reflector. Other Democratic governors have won expansion past Republican lawmakers, at very different speeds. Louisiana's John Bel Edwards expanded it by executive order the day after he took office in January 2016. North Carolina's Roy Cooper needed six years and signed in March 2023. Newcomers now get less help than those states did. A 2025 federal law ended the bonus federal money once offered to states that adopt late, though the 90% federal share for newly eligible enrollees still applies.

STATELINE1 source

8not newslongformMedicaid and ACA cuts

Oregon, Minnesota, New Mexico and Washington sue to block Medicaid work requirements due to start in 2027

The rules would make most Medicaid expansion adults ages 19 to 64 document 80 hours a month of work, school or volunteering, with exemptions for pregnancy, some medical conditions, caregivers and American Indians and Alaska Natives.

Coverage the suing states project they could lose: Washington: about 120,000 of roughly 600,000 adults facing the rules, per its attorney general New Mexico: about 89,000 of roughly 230,000 adults subject to the rules, per state officials Oregon: up to one-third of about 564,000 expansion enrollees, per the complaint

ContextThe suit targets work rules in Section 71119 of the 2025 budget law, signed July 4, 2025. They apply only to adults covered through the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid expansion and some waiver programs, per KFF. States must start them by Jan. 1, 2027, though HHS can grant extensions to Dec. 31, 2028. Within that group, the rules require most Medicaid enrollees ages 19 through 64 to document at least 80 hours a month of work, school or volunteering. Medicaid is the government health plan for people with low incomes, and states run it day to day. The suit turns on that point. The four states say Congress and the Trump administration went beyond their constitutional power by ordering states to carry out the rules. People who are pregnant, who have specified medical conditions or who are qualifying caregivers are exempt, as are American Indians and Alaska Natives. A CMS spokesperson told Stateline on Friday, Nov. 6, that the agency does not comment on pending litigation.

STATELINE1 source

9not newslongformGovernment funding

Some Democrats want the Dec. 11 government funding bill to bar spending on the Iran war; party leaders have not committed

Democrats' new congressional majorities don't take office until January, so any December fight plays out in the outgoing, Republican-run Congress.

What a Dec. 11 shutdown would and would not halt: The Pentagon's January 2026 shutdown guidance keeps ongoing combat operations, plus their logistics and medical support, running during a funding lapse. Civilian work paid from lapsed funds stops and those employees are furloughed; Social Security checks continue because they have permanent funding.

ContextThe Dec. 11 date comes from the stopgap funding law Trump signed Sept. 2, which keeps agencies running at last year's rates. It expires before Democrats' new majorities take office in January, so the outgoing Congress writes the next bill. Democrats can still block it in the Senate. Most bills need 60 votes there to end debate, and Republicans hold 53 seats. If 41 of the 47 senators who caucus with Democrats hold out, a bill without war limits stalls. So far one, Chris Van Hollen (Sen-D Maryland), has said he will not vote for any war funding, NOTUS reported. The Pentagon told Congress the war had cost $47.1 billion through Oct. 16, the AP reported.

POLITICO1 source

Saturday · The daily brief

Nov 72026

9 leads7 briefs23 min

BoardScroll

Executive summary9 stories

News news6

  1. Vance runs indirect talks with Iran on a ceasefire and new nuclear talks while Trump weighs renewed strikesA proposed meeting of U.S. and Iranian technical teams has not happened, and Qatar is pushing both sides toward an interim deal.
  2. Trump names Stephen Miller White House chief of staff, replacing Susie Wiles after Republicans lost the House and SenateMiller starts Monday, Nov. 9; Wiles, who resigned Thursday, Nov. 5, moves to Trump's political operation.
  3. Employers added 165,000 jobs in October against a 65,000 forecast; unemployment fell to 4.1%Hourly pay rose 3.1% from a year earlier, still behind inflation; futures traders now put a December Fed rate increase at 77%.
  4. U.S. measles cases reach 5,182 in 45 states and D.C. as PAHO prepares to review U.S. elimination statusCDC has confirmed 4 measles deaths in 2026; state health officials have reported 8, and CDC says its reviews are still pending.
  5. European governments want Russia to end its Ukraine war before the U.S. and Russia talk about a broader security dealZelensky, ahead of the Nov. 10–11 Abu Dhabi talks, wants allies to put in writing who would defend Ukraine, and how fast, if Russia attacks again.
  6. Justice Department national security chief John Eisenberg and Miami U.S. attorney Jason Reding Quiñones, who ran the probe of officials who investigated Trump, resignTheir exits on Friday, Nov. 6, follow Civil Rights Division chief Harmeet Dhillon's resignation on Thursday, Nov. 5, making three senior departures in two days.

Not news news3

  1. Democratic election wins give Georgia, Kansas, Texas and Wisconsin a new opening to expand Medicaid; no specific plans yetGeorgia Gov.-elect Keisha Lance Bottoms calls full expansion a day-one priority, but Republicans keep the Georgia Senate, so she will need some of their votes.
  2. Oregon, Minnesota, New Mexico and Washington sue to block Medicaid work requirements due to start in 2027The rules would make most Medicaid expansion adults ages 19 to 64 document 80 hours a month of work, school or volunteering, with exemptions for pregnancy, some medical conditions, caregivers and American Indians and Alaska Natives.
  3. Some Democrats want the Dec. 11 government funding bill to bar spending on the Iran war; party leaders have not committedDemocrats' new congressional majorities don't take office until January, so any December fight plays out in the outgoing, Republican-run Congress.

News news6 stories

Ongoing34 earlier updates59 days

This story has run 35 times over 59 days, starting Sep 9.

  1. Houthi missiles and drones hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and halting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery
  2. UpdateBrent oil exceeds $100 a barrel; US diesel reaches $5.94 a gallon
  3. Houthis capture Yemen's Mokha from Saudi-backed forces 46 miles from Bab el-Mandeb
  4. UpdateHouthi forces captured Mokha and Perim island in the 28-kilometer Bab el-Mandeb strait.
  5. UpdateA day after the Bab el-Mandeb capture, maritime monitors have recorded no new transit halts
  6. UpdateSaudi Arabia shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline, oil rises more than $3 with 4% of supply at risk
  7. UpdateHouthis seize two more Red Sea islands as Saudi pipeline faces 3-to-5-week outage
  8. UpdateSaudi Arabia suspends loadings at its last open oil terminal; September cargoes cancelled
  9. Attacks on Saudi export pipeline push WTI crude to $107.02 a barrel, a 30-day high
  10. UpdateHouthi missiles hit Riyadh, burning a fuel depot near King Khalid airport
  11. UpdateSaudi Arabia says it intercepted a Houthi missile aimed at Riyadh
  12. UpdateTrump declined a prepared U.S. air campaign against the Houthis, giving Saudi Arabia intelligence and targeting data instead
  13. UpdateSaudi Arabia tested its shut east-west pipeline for a restart as oil fell below $98
  14. Chris Murphy (Sen-D Connecticut) says Pentagon is hiding Iran war damage and a deal isn't imminent
  15. UpdateStrike on Riyadh airport kills 12, including an American; Trump says the U.S. "may" join Saudi strikes on the Houthis
  16. UpdateRiyadh airport hit again Sunday, Oct. 11, killing one; Saturday's strike toll rises to at least 13, including an American
  17. UpdateSaudi Arabia investigates why its air defenses failed to stop the Houthi strike that killed at least 13 at Riyadh's airport
  18. UpdateSaudi-led coalition bombs Houthi oil facilities and a fuel depot in Yemen after a Riyadh airport strike killed at least 13
  19. Houthi strike damages 3 floors of Aramco's Dhahran headquarters, including executive offices; no casualties
  20. Brent crude touches $110 a barrel, its first time there since May 20, after Saudi-led forces intercept missiles aimed at energy hubs
  21. Iran is giving the Houthis targeting and intelligence help for their strikes on Saudi Arabia, WSJ reports
  22. Judge jails ex-OpenAI engineer accused of bugging executives; prosecutors say Saudi official flew his family out
  23. UpdateBrent crude tops $111 a barrel, its highest since May, after Iran and the Houthis claim attacks on Gulf ships and Saudi oil sites
  24. UpdateState Department orders non-emergency U.S. staff and families out of Saudi Arabia after Houthi attacks on airports and oil sites
  25. Brent crude hits $116-117 a barrel Friday, Oct. 23, on fears the Iran war escalates again
  26. UpdateU.S. cuts staff at embassies in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and the UAE after intelligence chief says Iranian plots to kill Americans are at 'advanced stages'
  27. UpdateTrump says it's 'decision time' on Iran: a deal, or resumed attacks to 'finish it off'
  28. Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani envoys meet Iran's security chiefs in Tehran to push for a U.S.-Iran deal
  29. Qatar-led mediators urge Iran to admit UN inspectors for partial U.S. sanctions relief; U.S. and Israeli officials expect a week of strikes after the midterms without a deal
  30. UpdateQatari mediators return to Tehran to push an interim U.S.-Iran deal as Trump says the war will end 'soon'
  31. UpdateIran says it can reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if the U.S. lifts sanctions and its port blockade; the U.S. strikes Iran's Qeshm Island as Trump says there's 'no rush' to decide on resuming the war
  32. UpdateIran says mines destroyed four tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, which the BBC has not verified; Trump says the war cost Republican votes but he does not regret it
  33. UpdateTrump weighs resuming Iran strikes, negotiating, or keeping the blockade and sanctions after the midterms, Axios reports
  34. UpdateTrump meets his security team and says he'll decide 'soon' whether to resume full-scale strikes on Iran
  35. UpdateVance runs indirect talks with Iran on a ceasefire and new nuclear talks while Trump weighs renewed strikes — this issue
AXIOSUpdateIran war

Vance runs indirect talks with Iran on a ceasefire and new nuclear talks while Trump weighs renewed strikes

A proposed meeting of U.S. and Iranian technical teams has not happened, and Qatar is pushing both sides toward an interim deal.

Vice President JD Vance has spent two weeks personally involved in indirect negotiations with Iran, aiming for a new ceasefire and a restart of nuclear talks, Axios reports. Trump is letting the diplomacy run while his advisers split: Vance wants a deal, and others want renewed attacks, per The Wall Street Journal.

“We're talking to them.”Donald Trump, to reporters on Friday, Nov. 6

Still open. Whether the working-level U.S.-Iran meeting gets a date, and whether Trump chooses talks or strikes.

Catch upwhat happened before · 34 earlier issues
  • Oct. 23 — Intelligence chief Jay Clayton warned Iranian plots to kill Americans were at 'advanced stages'; the U.S. cut embassy staff in four countries.
  • Oct. 26 — Trump called it 'decision time': a deal or resumed attacks; a third U.S. aircraft carrier headed to the region.
  • Oct. 27 — Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani envoys met Iran's security chiefs in Tehran to push for a deal.
  • Oct. 29 — Qatar-led mediators urged Iran to admit UN inspectors for partial sanctions relief; Trump confirmed Vance had written to Iranian officials.
  • Oct. 30 — Fox News, CNN and The Washington Post reported U.S. forces were being moved to give Trump the option of strikes after the Nov. 3 midterms.
  • Nov. 2–3 — Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if the U.S. lifted sanctions and its blockade; the U.S. struck Qeshm Island.
  • Nov. 4 — Iran claimed its mines destroyed tankers in the strait; BBC Verify found no evidence. Vance wrote on X that the war cost Republicans the midterms, and Trump called that 'largely true.'
  • Nov. 5 — Trump met his security team and said he'd decide on strikes 'soon.' Axios reported Qatar's two-day draft: the U.S. lifts the blockade and frees some funds, Iran invites inspectors, then the strait reopens.
33 earlier issues
BackgroundWhat the spring strikes left of Iran's weapons and fuel3 facts
  • The White House said strikes on more than 450 missile targets and about 800 drone targets razed Iran's arsenal; the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency told Congress in April that Iran still held thousands of missiles and one-way attack drones.
  • UN nuclear chief Rafael Grossi said in October that inspectors saw no rebuilding at damaged nuclear sites but still cannot confirm where Iran's enriched uranium is.
  • The IAEA's last count before the June 2025 war: 440.9 kg of uranium enriched up to 60%, enough for about ten bombs if enriched further.

Red take

A promise to invite inspectors is not inspectors, and Qatar's two-day plan asks Trump to lift the blockade and free some Iranian funds for that promise. This is a government whose plots to kill Americans the intelligence chief, Jay Clayton, called 'advanced stages' on Oct. 23, and which claims its mines destroyed tankers. Hold the blockade until inspectors are on the ground, or every hostile government learns that mining a waterway pays.

Blue take

Bombing has not disarmed Iran: the White House said strikes on more than 450 missile targets razed the arsenal, yet the Defense Intelligence Agency still counted thousands of missiles in April. Qatar's two-day plan has Iran invite inspectors and reopen the Strait of Hormuz in return for lifting the blockade and freeing some funds. Strike again and Trump gives up eyes inside Iran for bombs that leave the missiles standing.

Ongoing1 earlier update16 days

This story has run 2 times over 16 days, starting Oct 22.

  1. White House counsel demands Politico correct or retract 3 stories about chief of staff Susie Wiles by Thursday, Oct. 22
  2. Trump names Stephen Miller White House chief of staff, replacing Susie Wiles after Republicans lost the House and Senate — this issue
POLITICO

Trump names Stephen Miller White House chief of staff, replacing Susie Wiles after Republicans lost the House and Senate

Miller starts Monday, Nov. 9; Wiles, who resigned Thursday, Nov. 5, moves to Trump's political operation.

The move. Trump handed the top White House staff job to Stephen Miller, the architect of his immigration crackdown, after Republicans lost both chambers of Congress in the Tuesday, Nov. 3 midterms. Susie Wiles resigned Thursday, Nov. 5, and moves to Trump's political operation. Miller starts Monday, Nov. 9.

The reaction. Deportation advocates cheered, Democrats condemned the pick and some Republicans balked. "Horrible decision," Marlin Stutzman (Rep-R Indiana) told Politico. Mike Howell, co-founder of the Mass Deportation Coalition, said hardliners were "jubilant." Miller wrote on X: "The mission now is more clear than ever: Fight with all of our soul to support our President."

Still open. The BBC reports it is unclear whether Wiles's deputies will stay. Neither Miller nor the White House has announced a new immigration order.

Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

On Oct. 15, Politico Playbook reported that Trump was considering a replacement for Wiles, and Trump called it "fake news." White House Counsel Will Scharf then demanded that Politico correct or retract that story and two others, Axios reported on Wednesday, Oct. 21.

BackgroundWhy a Democratic Congress's budget power reaches ICE only partway2 facts
  • ICE got $74.85 billion in the 2025 reconciliation law (the party-line budget bill), spendable through fiscal 2029. A later law added $7.45 billion, per CRS, for ICE investigators and $31.08 billion for enforcement staff and transport, also good through fiscal 2029. ICE's regular funding for fiscal 2020–2024 combined was $42.867 billion, per CRS.
  • Robert Garcia (Rep-D California), expected to chair House Oversight, says he will keep investigating Miller and immigration enforcement. Hearings can expose and subpoena, but they cannot halt deportations, and Trump can veto any restrictions.

Red take

Losing Congress is exactly why Stephen Miller is the right chief of staff: what Trump can still do runs through agencies, not new laws. The $74.85 billion ICE got in the 2025 party-line budget bill stays spendable through fiscal 2029, and Miller, as deputy chief for policy, already pressed agencies to supply deportation resources. Hand the job to a placeholder, and a Democratic House's hearings set the agenda instead of the agencies holding that money.

Blue take

Republicans just lost the House and Senate, and Trump answered by giving the job that decides who reaches him to Stephen Miller, architect of his immigration crackdown. Even Marlin Stutzman, an Indiana Republican congressman, called it a "Horrible decision", and Miller's reply on X was to "Fight with all of our soul." Robert Garcia, the Democrat expected to chair House Oversight, must keep investigating, or a White House voters just checked will hear only its hardest line.

Ongoing18 earlier updates57 days

This story has run 19 times over 57 days, starting Sep 11.

  1. August inflation holds at 3.4% annually; gasoline drives monthly increase
  2. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the year, lifting September Fed rate hike odds above 80%
  3. Trump threatens trade cutoff with some nations unless Fed lowers rates despite 3.4% inflation
  4. Update10-year Treasury yield hit 5.014% Monday, Sept. 14, first time since October 2023
  5. Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark rate a quarter point on Wednesday, Sept. 16, its first hike in three years.
  6. UpdateFed raises its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since July 2023
  7. UpdateChicago Fed's Goolsbee says getting inflation to 2% will be 'painful' and require pushing employment below target
  8. Fed Governor Michael Barr says more rate increases are likely to counter inflation
  9. UpdateAugust PCE inflation was 3.4%, below the 3.7% forecast, cutting October Fed hike odds to 35% from 45%
  10. Markets pull back bets on October Fed and ECB rate hikes after weak US jobs data
  11. UpdateFed minutes show most officials expect another rate hike by year end
  12. Trump sets a closed White House hearing for Nov. 5 on whether he has cause to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook
  13. UpdateConsumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, up from 3.4%, as increases spread beyond gasoline
  14. UpdateProducer prices rose 6.3% in the year to September, the most since December 2022, with fuel half the gain
  15. UpdateFed Chair Kevin Warsh declines to preview Oct. 27-28 meeting; rate hike odds fall to 28%
  16. Fed expected to hold rates at 3.75%-4% Wednesday, Oct. 28, a week before midterms, despite 3.7% inflation
  17. UpdateFed holds its rate at 3.75%–4% in a 10-2 vote; Cook and Hammack dissent for a hike
  18. UpdateEconomy grew at a 3.4% annual pace in the third quarter as September inflation rose to 3.6%
  19. Employers added 165,000 jobs in October against a 65,000 forecast; unemployment fell to 4.1% — this issue
PBS NEWSHOURJobs reports

Employers added 165,000 jobs in October against a 65,000 forecast; unemployment fell to 4.1%

Hourly pay rose 3.1% from a year earlier, still behind inflation; futures traders now put a December Fed rate increase at 77%.

The government's monthly jobs report, released Friday, Nov. 6, showed employers added 165,000 jobs in October, well above the 65,000 economists had forecast. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in September, even as 421,000 people joined the labor force.

Revisions (updated counts for earlier months) added 84,000 jobs to the August and September totals combined, so the two months before October were also stronger than first reported.

Which employers supplied October's hiringHealth care: +41,6003 details
  • Health care: +41,600
  • Government: +6,000
  • All other employers: +117,400
Ongoing2 earlier updates22 days

This story has run 3 times over 22 days, starting Oct 16.

  1. UpdateCDC sends an outbreak investigator to Pennsylvania as state measles cases reach 1,222
  2. CDC counts 4,588 U.S. measles cases and three deaths in 2026; Pennsylvania alone reports five deaths
  3. U.S. measles cases reach 5,182 in 45 states and D.C. as PAHO prepares to review U.S. elimination status — this issue
THE HILLMeasles outbreak

U.S. measles cases reach 5,182 in 45 states and D.C. as PAHO prepares to review U.S. elimination status

CDC has confirmed 4 measles deaths in 2026; state health officials have reported 8, and CDC says its reviews are still pending.

The CDC counted 5,182 measles cases in 45 states and Washington, D.C., so far in 2026. That is 330 more than its previous weekly update. The CDC has confirmed four measles deaths this year, and state officials have reported eight. The U.S. and Mexico both face a review by PAHO (the Pan American Health Organization, the World Health Organization's office for the Americas). PAHO decides whether a country has stopped measles from spreading locally.

What this review testsThe test: one chain of the same virus strain spreading without a break inside the country for at least 12 months.3 details
  • The test: one chain of the same virus strain spreading without a break inside the country for at least 12 months.
  • The clock: PAHO counts from Jan. 20, 2025, so the 12-month mark passed on Jan. 20, 2026.
  • The evidence gap: CDC says gene sequencing can rule out links between outbreaks but cannot prove a link without case-tracing data.
BLOOMBERGUpdateRussia-Ukraine war

European governments want Russia to end its Ukraine war before the U.S. and Russia talk about a broader security deal

Zelensky, ahead of the Nov. 10–11 Abu Dhabi talks, wants allies to put in writing who would defend Ukraine, and how fast, if Russia attacks again.

European governments want Russia to end its war on Ukraine before any talks on Moscow's wider demands about how Europe's security is arranged, Bloomberg reports. Their fear is that a broader U.S. security deal with Russia could weaken NATO (the 32-nation Western military alliance). They also fear it could restore Moscow's sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. The Financial Times reports the same European worry.

“What matters is that it's clear on paper. If Russia starts (attacking) again, what will happen? Who will do what, with what means, and when?”Volodymyr Zelensky (President, Ukraine)

What next. U.S., Russian and Ukrainian officials plan to meet in Abu Dhabi next week (the week of Nov. 9). It would be their first three-way peace session since February, NBC News reported.

How we got herethe story so far
  • Oct. 9–11 — Trump lifted sanctions on Russian diesel and said Ukraine needs "a new president" after Zelensky kept striking Russian refineries.
  • Oct. 12–16 — Trump announced a refinery-only energy ceasefire Moscow never confirmed. Ukraine hit a Russian refinery three days later, saying Russia never stopped.
  • Oct. 16–17 — EU leaders said they "regret" the diesel move. Trump called Zelensky "not a good guy."
  • Oct. 19–20 — After a Ukrainian drone hit a St. Petersburg oil terminal, Trump told Zelensky to let "somebody else" negotiate.
  • Oct. 20 — Brian Fitzpatrick (Rep-R Pennsylvania) and Don Bacon (Rep-R Nebraska) threatened to block Trump's agenda over Ukraine.
  • Oct. 21–22 — Envoy Steve Witkoff carried Oslo proposals to Putin. Putin agreed "in principle" to restart three-way talks, suspended since February. Overnight, Russia fired 21 ballistic missiles at Kyiv, Zelensky said.
  • Oct. 27 — Three tankers carrying about 140,000 tonnes of Russian diesel were headed for the U.S. under Trump's deal, the Financial Times reported.
  • Nov. 2 — Witkoff said the U.S. will mediate working-level talks in Abu Dhabi on Nov. 10–11.
What these talks could promise, and what they couldn'tKeep Ukraine out of NATO: yes.3 details
  • Keep Ukraine out of NATO: yes. New members need every ally's vote, so one U.S. no is enough.
  • Pull U.S. troops from Europe: only partly. The 2026 defense law bars keeping fewer than 76,000 U.S. troops in Europe for more than 45 days unless the Pentagon certifies the cut to Congress.
  • Cap European allies' forces or free them from Article 5, NATO's mutual-defense clause: no. Each country decides its own troops, basing and response to an attack.
CBS NEWSUpdate

Justice Department national security chief John Eisenberg and Miami U.S. attorney Jason Reding Quiñones, who ran the probe of officials who investigated Trump, resign

Their exits on Friday, Nov. 6, follow Civil Rights Division chief Harmeet Dhillon's resignation on Thursday, Nov. 5, making three senior departures in two days.

John Eisenberg led the Justice Department's National Security Division. Jason Reding Quiñones was the top federal prosecutor for the Southern District of Florida, based in Miami. Both resigned on Friday, Nov. 6.

The probe. Quiñones's office oversaw the so-called grand-conspiracy investigation, which asks whether officials who investigated Trump conspired against him. It has produced no criminal indictments.

The exits. Joe diGenova left the probe in September, one of several departures from it. Civil Rights Division chief Harmeet Dhillon resigned on Thursday, Nov. 5, the day before Eisenberg and Quiñones.

On Oct. 9, the Justice Department asked a DC grand jury to indict Cassidy Hutchinson, the former White House aide who testified to Congress about Jan. 6, on charges of lying to Congress in her 2022 testimony. Dhillon's Civil Rights Division ran the case instead of the usual DC prosecutors. On Oct. 28, the grand jury refused to charge her, though prosecutors can try again.

How federal vacancy law fills the two empty jobsEisenberg's principal deputy becomes acting chief by default, though Trump can pick another qualified official instead.3 details
  • Eisenberg's principal deputy becomes acting chief by default, though Trump can pick another qualified official instead.
  • An acting official can usually serve 210 days from the vacancy, and longer while a nomination is pending.
  • For South Florida, Attorney General Todd Blanche can name an interim U.S. attorney without Senate approval for up to 120 days. After that, the local federal court can appoint one.

Quick bites5

Also tonight2 bites

  1. Texas and Georgia governors-elect pledge to pause new data-center construction

    CBS NEWSUpdate

    Texas Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa, a Democrat, says she will halt new data-center construction until safeguards are in place, per CBS. She has not said what those safeguards would be. Georgia Gov.-elect Keisha Lance Bottoms, a Democrat, has said she will sign an executive order pausing it after taking office in January.

    On Tuesday, Nov. 3, voters in about 10 states approved measures restricting data centers, per Axios. On Thursday, Nov. 5, the Nasdaq fell 5.5% and closed more than 10% below its Oct. 6 record close, a correction, per Barron's.

    Market and industry reactionStocks rebounded Friday morning, Nov. 6, per CBS.3 details
    • Stocks rebounded Friday morning, Nov. 6, per CBS.
    • Meta president Dina Powell McCormick told the Wall Street Journal it is "going to be harder" to build data centers after the election, the Guardian reported.
    • Neither governor-elect has said how far the pause would reach or how it would be enforced.

  2. Houston police will no longer notify ICE after traffic stops or minor non-jailable offenses

    PBS NEWSHOURICE raids

    Houston's mayor signed an order on Friday, Nov. 6, barring city police from holding anyone just because they think the person is here illegally. Officers can still call ICE after an arrest for a jailable crime. Sources split on ICE administrative warrants. PBS/AP describe a warrant as a separate reason to call ICE. Police Chief J. Noe Diaz said "HPD will no longer contact ICE if they have an administrative warrant and they are not arrested," per the Texas Tribune.

    A 2017 Texas law, SB4, bars cities from policies that "prohibit or materially limit" immigration enforcement. Reuters reports the order runs contrary to that law. In April, Gov. Greg Abbott threatened to pull about $110 million in state grants over a smaller Houston change, per the Texas Tribune. The City Council repealed it.

Elections3 bites

  1. Democratic Senate candidate Scott Colom leads Cindy Hyde-Smith (Sen-R Mississippi) by about 2,500 votes with 97% counted; no one knows how many ballots are left

    BBC NEWSUpdate

    Democratic Senate candidate Scott Colom led Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by about 2,500 votes with 97% counted on Friday, Nov. 6, the BBC reported. That is up from 1,813 on Thursday evening, Nov. 5. No one knows how many ballots are left, NPR reported. The state Republican chair estimated on Thursday, Nov. 5, that about 20,000 were outstanding. Mail ballots and affidavit-ballot ID fixes are due Nov. 10, ahead of Nov. 13 certification, per the BBC. Colom's lawyers say a Hyde-Smith campaign demand to set affidavit ballots aside has "no legal authority whatsoever."

    On Wednesday evening, Nov. 4, ABC News had Colom ahead of Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by 1,138 votes. By Thursday evening, Nov. 5, his lead was 1,813 votes, per ABC News and The Washington Post, and Hyde-Smith's lawyers and the Senate GOP's campaign arm had told all 82 counties to set aside affidavit ballots.

    The fine printLeads reported on Friday, Nov. 6, differ by count time: just over 1,800 (Washington Examiner, using the Thursday, Nov. 5, count),…4 details
    • Leads reported on Friday, Nov. 6, differ by count time: just over 1,800 (Washington Examiner, using the Thursday, Nov. 5, count), under 2,000 at midday (NPR), a little over 2,000 at 2 p.m. ET (Axios) and about 2,500 (BBC).
    • More than 230,000 Mississippi voters were listed as inactive before the midterms, per a Mississippi Today analysis cited by Axios.
    • Secretary of State Michael Watson said on Thursday, Nov. 5, that nearly 7,000 affidavit ballots had been processed, with roughly 80% accepted, per NPR.
    • Colom says his campaign has an "army of lawyers" ready to act.

  2. Arizona Democrats flip both legislative chambers and keep the governorship, their first trifecta since 1966, per AP

    PBS NEWSHOUR

    Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs vetoed more than 540 bills from the Republican-led Legislature in her first term, AP reported. She has said she wants to tackle water, affordability and fraud in the school-voucher program.

  3. North Carolina state Senate control hinges on a 245-vote race, with more than 650 provisional ballots left to examine

    WRAL
    Robeson and Scotland counties review about 660 provisional ballots next week; a Democratic win in District 24 would split the Senate 25–25.

    Republican state Sen. Danny Britt leads Democrat Catina Hamm by 245 votes in District 24, down from 268 after Election Day, WRAL reported on Friday, Nov. 6. More than 650 provisional ballots are still to be examined, per WRAL. A Hamm win would split the 50-seat Senate 25–25, with Lt. Gov. Rachel Hunt, a Democrat, casting tie-breaking votes.

    The count so far, per WRALHoke County counted 59 provisional ballots on Friday, Nov. 6, and rejected 105.3 details
    • Hoke County counted 59 provisional ballots on Friday, Nov. 6, and rejected 105. About 530 remain in Robeson County and about 130 in Scotland County.
    • A Britt win keeps Republicans at 26 of 50 Senate seats.
    • A Hamm win would leave each party with 25 seats; Hunt votes only when the chamber ties. Democrats flipped the state House on Tuesday, Nov. 3, and hold the governor's office.

Elections2 races

2 closest races

  • gAlaska governor99.4%Wilson 0.53%Begich 0.05%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    A dead heat — the two sides are priced within a point of each other, after Wilson lost about eleven points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Nov 6, 8:35 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 0.25%, Kalshi 0.80%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 0.05%, Kalshi 0.05%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • fAlaska SenateMary Peltola 97.80%▲27.6Sullivan 2.08%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: Sullivan is down about 28 points.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Nov 6, 8:35 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 98.35%, Kalshi 97.25%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 1.45%, Kalshi 2.70%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Nov 6, 8:35 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Not news news3 stories

STATELINEMedicaid and ACA cuts

Democratic election wins give Georgia, Kansas, Texas and Wisconsin a new opening to expand Medicaid; no specific plans yet

Georgia Gov.-elect Keisha Lance Bottoms calls full expansion a day-one priority, but Republicans keep the Georgia Senate, so she will need some of their votes.

Democratic gains in the Tuesday, Nov. 3, elections improved the odds of Medicaid expansion in Georgia, Kansas, Texas and Wisconsin, Stateline reported on Friday, Nov. 6.

The expansion. They are four of the 10 states that have not adopted the Affordable Care Act's full expansion, which covers adults earning up to 138% of the federal poverty level. The federal government pays 90% of the cost for newly eligible enrollees, and the state pays the other 10%.

In Georgia. Gov.-elect Keisha Lance Bottoms calls full expansion a day-one priority. Republicans keep the state Senate, so she will need some of their votes. Georgia state Rep. Michelle Au, a physician, called the results "thrilling for me because this is the reason I ran for office in the first place."

Still open. Lawmakers in the four states have not yet said what they will propose.

Where an expansion bill can pass, and whose votes it needsGeorgia: Republicans hold the Senate 29–27, so at least two GOP senators must vote yes.4 details
  • Georgia: Republicans hold the Senate 29–27, so at least two GOP senators must vote yes. Democrats' reported 91 House seats are exactly the 91 needed to pass a bill, and three House races are still unsettled.
  • Kansas: Democrats flipped as many as 20 House seats, ending the Republican supermajority there, but Republicans appear to keep a House majority and a Senate supermajority, per Stateline. Expansion would need Republican votes in both chambers. Democrat Cindy Holscher, who campaigned on expansion, holds a narrow lead in the uncalled governor's race.
  • Texas: Republicans hold the Senate 19–12, so at least four GOP senators are needed. Under the outgoing Senate's rules, bringing a bill to the floor could take six.
  • Wisconsin: Reported Democratic majorities of 53–46 in the Assembly and 18–15 in the Senate could pass expansion with no Republican votes, if every Democrat votes yes.
STATELINEMedicaid and ACA cuts

Oregon, Minnesota, New Mexico and Washington sue to block Medicaid work requirements due to start in 2027

The rules would make most Medicaid expansion adults ages 19 to 64 document 80 hours a month of work, school or volunteering, with exemptions for pregnancy, some medical conditions, caregivers and American Indians and Alaska Natives.

Democratic attorneys general from the four states filed suit in federal district court in Oregon on Thursday, Nov. 5. They argue Congress and the Trump administration went beyond their constitutional power by requiring states to carry out the work rules.

“The height of bureaucratic cruelty.”Oregon Attorney General Dan Rayfield, on people losing health coverage over paperwork

Coverage the suing states project they could loseWashington: about 120,000 of roughly 600,000 adults facing the rules, per its attorney general3 details
  • Washington: about 120,000 of roughly 600,000 adults facing the rules, per its attorney general
  • New Mexico: about 89,000 of roughly 230,000 adults subject to the rules, per state officials
  • Oregon: up to one-third of about 564,000 expansion enrollees, per the complaint
POLITICOGovernment funding

Some Democrats want the Dec. 11 government funding bill to bar spending on the Iran war; party leaders have not committed

Democrats' new congressional majorities don't take office until January, so any December fight plays out in the outgoing, Republican-run Congress.

The push. Some Democrats want to use Congress's Dec. 11 funding deadline (the date federal money runs out and a government shutdown starts unless a new spending bill passes) to bar money for U.S. combat in Iran, Politico reported Friday, Nov. 6.

The leaders. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries (Rep-D New York) said leaders will discuss their approach. The party has not set a position.

The pressure. Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, a Democrat, urged Democrats to block war funding: "No capitulating."

“Democrats will absolutely not fund Trump’s war of choice with Iran that has increased costs on American families and made us less safe.”Rosa DeLauro (Rep-D Connecticut), top House Democratic appropriator

What next. Congress must pass funding by Friday, Dec. 11, or the government shuts down; leaders have not said whether they will tie that bill to war spending.

What a Dec. 11 shutdown would and would not haltThe Pentagon's January 2026 shutdown guidance keeps ongoing combat operations, plus their logistics and medical support, running…2 details
  • The Pentagon's January 2026 shutdown guidance keeps ongoing combat operations, plus their logistics and medical support, running during a funding lapse.
  • Civilian work paid from lapsed funds stops and those employees are furloughed; Social Security checks continue because they have permanent funding.
12 stories that didn't make the cutSeen by the desk, ranked, and not run. The number is where each stood in the day's order.

News

  • 18Incoming congressional Democrats weigh how to deliver affordability promises under divided government.Incoming congressional Democrats weigh how to deliver affordability promises under divided government.
  • 19Democrats' state election gains produce their most governing trifectas in decades and new opportunities in the South.Democrats' state election gains produce their most governing trifectas in decades and new opportunities in the South.
  • 20Democrats' Texas statewide sweep raises questions about the incoming government's policy agenda and GOP future.Democrats' Texas statewide sweep raises questions about the incoming government's policy agenda and GOP future.
  • 21An armed Venezuelan man is arrested near the White House after allegedly threatening to kill Trump.An armed Venezuelan man is arrested near the White House after allegedly threatening to kill Trump.
  • 22Democrats prepare congressional investigations of Trump and his administration while debating how to focus oversight.Democrats prepare congressional investigations of Trump and his administration while debating how to focus oversight.
  • 23Democratic congressional control reshapes health committees and increases pressure to lower healthcare costs.Democratic congressional control reshapes health committees and increases pressure to lower healthcare costs.
  • 24Schumer vows that a Democratic Senate will block Trump's right-wing Supreme Court nominees.Schumer vows that a Democratic Senate will block Trump's right-wing Supreme Court nominees.
  • 26Trump's global health aid strategy faces warnings about pandemic prevention and questions about Democratic congressional oversight.Trump's global health aid strategy faces warnings about pandemic prevention and questions about Democratic congressional oversight.
  • 27Former health adviser Calley Means says administration corruption and industry influence prompted his resignation.Former health adviser Calley Means says administration corruption and industry influence prompted his resignation.
  • 28Wall Street strategists expect the U.S. to reach its $41.1 trillion debt ceiling as early as February.Wall Street strategists expect the U.S. to reach its $41.1 trillion debt ceiling as early as February.

Election related

  • 17Democrats expand their congressional gains as additional midterm races are called and other contests remain unresolved.Democrats expand their congressional gains as additional midterm races are called and other contests remain unresolved.
  • 25Hegseth faces a renewed impeachment effort and bipartisan scrutiny after the midterms.Hegseth faces a renewed impeachment effort and bipartisan scrutiny after the midterms.

More on the Elections page