An NBER working paper estimates 26% pass-through to consumer-goods prices and says indirect increases took nine to 12 months to arrive.
Figure 1Chart
Most of a tariff's price effect arrives on imported finished goods
The paper's illustrative case is a uniform 10% tariff, which it estimates would raise consumer-goods prices about 2.6%. These are the three components of that figure; they sum to 2.64 points. It is a July 2026 working paper and has not been peer reviewed.
The numbers
| Percentage points added to consumer-goods prices | Price effect | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Imported finished goods | 1.70 pp | the border-price effect appeared almost immediately |
| Imported inputs | 0.77 pp | used by U.S. producers; took nine to 12 months to arrive |
| Domestic markups | 0.17 pp | U.S. firms raising markups; took nine to 12 months to arrive |