News news6 stories
The still-unopened fund came from Trump's IRS settlement and would have let a DOJ commission pay people alleging political targeting.
Two bars: the $1.776 billion Anti-Weaponization Fund the Justice Department rescinded, and the $760 million Keepseagle farm-discrimination settlement it had cited as precedent.
The fund DOJ scrapped was more than twice its own cited precedent
The money was to come from the Treasury's Judgment Fund, a permanent appropriation, rather than a new line item voted by Congress.
The numbers
| Millions of dollars | Settlement size | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Anti-Weaponization Fund | $1,776 | proposed, then rescinded before it opened |
| Keepseagle settlement | $760 | farm discrimination; cited by DOJ as precedent |
Related reading
The rescission killed the commission and its potential payouts, but did not unwind every part of the settlement. Blanche preserved a separate order protecting Trump, his adult sons and the Trump Organization from liability tied to past tax conduct; it does not cover returns filed after the settlement.
Ongoing1 earlier update5 days
This story has run 2 times over 5 days, starting Jul 30.
- Trump says Hamas agreed to phased disarmament in Gaza; Israel remains skeptical
- Israel raises ‘serious security concerns’ over Hamas disarmament deal — this issue
The roadmap would move a stalled October ceasefire into its disarmament-and-withdrawal phase.
Ongoing2 earlier updates12 days
This story has run 3 times over 12 days, starting Jul 23.
- Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
- Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
- Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday — this issue
Trump said negotiations would begin Monday afternoon after he held off on threatened strikes; Iran's Foreign Ministry said no talks or delegation were scheduled.
Related reading
Trump's decision to pause the threatened strikes reduced the market's near-term estimate of supply disruption, even though the war and the Strait of Hormuz remain major risks for energy prices.
Ongoing1 earlier update8 days
This story has run 2 times over 8 days, starting Jul 27.
- Zelensky will meet senators Tuesday as Russia sanctions vote nears
- Zelensky says Russia launched nearly 1,900 drones at Ukraine in one week — this issue
The Ukrainian president said 16 regions were attacked and more than 1,500 sites were damaged during the week.
Grouped bars comparing two consecutive weeks of reported Russian attacks on Ukraine: 1,900 attack drones against 1,700 a week earlier, 1,600 guided aerial bombs against 1,630, and 144 missiles against 95.
The week's increase was in missiles, the smallest of the three counts
Drones are up about 12% and missiles about 52%; the bomb count is roughly flat. Both weeks are Zelensky's own tallies, and POLI did not find an independent weekly count in the cited sources.
The numbers
| Weapons launched, as reported | Latest week | Week earlier | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attack drones | 1,900 | 1,700 | reported as roughly 1,900; reported as nearly 1,700 |
| Guided aerial bombs | 1,600 | 1,630 | reported as nearly 1,600; reported as more than 1,630 |
| Missiles | 144 | 95 |
Related reading
Zelensky reported nearly 1,700 Russian drones, more than 1,630 guided bombs and 95 missiles during the preceding week.
Ongoing1 earlier update3 days
This story has run 2 times over 3 days, starting Aug 1.
- 60,000 migrants reach Ceuta over two days; Spain begins mass returns
- Spain updates Ceuta death toll as it installs sea barrier — this issue
Spanish authorities raised the count from 67 deaths Saturday to 72 deaths Sunday as searches continued.
The barrierMap
500 metres of a 7.6 km border
Spain's answer to the rush is a floating barrier along Ceuta's sea border. Drawn to scale against the boundary it reinforces.
A close map of Ceuta and its land border with Morocco, with a scale bar showing the 500 m floating barrier against the 7.6 km boundary. Places marked: Ceuta; Border, south end; Border, north end. Figures: deaths confirmed by Sunday, 72; arrivals from Morocco on 30–31 July, ≈60,000; of floating barrier, 500 m; of land border with Morocco, 7.6 km. A scale bar shows the floating barrier Spain installed along Ceuta's sea border.
What this map shows, as data
| Place | Role | Position | What the reporting says | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta | Place | 35.89°N, 5.31°W | Spanish autonomous city on the North African coast, bordered by Morocco on three sides and the Mediterranean on the fourth. | OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) |
| Border, south end | Chokepoint | 35.87°N, 5.34°W | Where the land border meets the Mediterranean. Entrants were reported reaching Ceuta by swimming around the barriers here and by scaling the fences. | OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) |
| Border, north end | Chokepoint | 35.91°N, 5.38°W | The border's other terminus, on the Strait of Gibraltar shore. | OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) |
| Figure | Value | Detail | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| deaths confirmed by Sunday | 72 | Raised from 67 on Saturday as searches continued; drownings and a stampede. | AP: Spain installs 500-metre barrier at Ceuta |
| arrivals from Morocco on 30–31 July | ≈60,000 | — | AP: Spain installs 500-metre barrier at Ceuta |
| of floating barrier | 500 m | Rises 30–70 cm above the water and extends up to a metre below it. | France 24/Reuters: Spain installs floating barrier in Ceuta |
| of land border with Morocco | 7.6 km | Measured along the OpenStreetMap boundary geometry drawn on this map. Not a reported figure. | OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) |
Where every coordinate came from
- Coordinates: Natural Earth 1:10m populated places, Admin-1 capital “Ceuta”. Boundary: OpenStreetMap relation 1154756.
- Southern terminus of the Ceuta–Morocco boundary in OpenStreetMap relation 1154756.
- Northern terminus of the Ceuta–Morocco boundary in OpenStreetMap relation 1154756.
- Length as reported by AP (500 m, “about one-third of a mile”). Drawn as a scale bar rather than sited on the map: the alignment was not published.
Sources: AP: Spain installs 500-metre barrier at Ceuta · France 24/Reuters: Spain installs floating barrier in Ceuta · OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth (public domain)
Seventy-two dead among roughly sixty thousand who crossed
Drownings and stampede deaths are counted together; the reporting does not break them out. Spain has since installed a 500-metre floating barrier along Ceuta's sea border.
The numbers
| Measure | People | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Confirmed dead | 72 | confirmed by Sunday, revised up from 67 on Saturday as searches continued |
| Arrivals | 60,000 | roughly this many crossed from Morocco on July 30 and 31 |
Proposition 40 could raise tens of billions for health care, but the hardest questions are how California would value private fortunes and what happens after the one-time money is gone.
For the tax
California's Legislative Analyst's Office says the levy would probably raise tens of billions of dollars over several years from a few hundred people. Ninety percent must go to public health care, with the rest for education, food assistance and administration. Supporters argue that asking people with extraordinary ability to pay is preferable to cutting Medi-Cal or shifting the bill to ordinary taxpayers.
Because it is a one-time levy on wealth already accumulated, it does not permanently raise the tax on future investment returns. The OECD says a surprise capital levy can therefore be less economically distortive in theory, although successful examples are rare. The Jan. 1 residency rule also means moving later in 2026 would not erase the bill.
Against the tax
California does not already receive a clean net-worth figure on income-tax returns. Public stock is easy to price; private companies, trusts and intellectual property are not. The measure would invite long disputes over ownership, debt, control and fair value, while giving the Franchise Tax Board broad rulemaking and enforcement authority.
A billionaire on paper may not have $50 million in cash for every $1 billion of wealth, making sales or long deferrals more likely. The money is also temporary while health-care costs recur. The LAO expects departures and other responses could reduce ongoing income-tax revenue by less than $1 billion a year, so California would trade a large, uncertain windfall now for some risk to a highly concentrated future tax base.
Quick bites11
Head Start standards targeted
APThe administration is considering cutting 122 pages of federal standards to about a dozen and leaving most staffing and safety rules to states. The proposal is not public and would require comment before adoption.
Two bars: 122 pages of current federal Head Start standards, against about a dozen pages under the proposal the administration is considering.
ChartA 122-page rulebook would become about a dozen pages
Most staffing and safety rules would pass to the states. The proposal is not public and would require a comment period before adoption; “about a dozen” is drawn here as twelve.
The numbers
A 122-page rulebook would become about a dozen pages Pages of federal standards Federal standards Note Current standards 122 Under the proposal 12 reported as “about a dozen” DOJ task-force safeguards
GAODOJ can let state and local officers serve warrants before federal training and has no department-wide criteria for when misconduct should remove them. GAO recommends uniform training and removal guidance.
Michigan reports first Cyclospora deaths
CDCMichigan reported the first two deaths associated with a multistate Cyclospora outbreak that has caused 11,234 illnesses and been linked by federal officials to iceberg lettuce. Both people who died had significant underlying health conditions.
Ethics panel seeks Edwards censure
AXIOSThe bipartisan House Ethics Committee recommended censuring Chuck Edwards (Rep-R North Carolina) over his treatment of two female staffers in their 20s. Its 25-page report described gifts, comments about the staffers’ appearance and invitations the panel characterized as intimate, finding that the conduct violated House rules and the spirit of prohibitions on sexual harassment and unwanted advances. Edwards’ attorneys said he was cleared of sexual misconduct and quid-pro-quo harassment.
Clayton takes intelligence post
NEW YORK TIMESClayton at the DNIJay Clayton was sworn in as director of national intelligence after a days-long handoff delay. Acting director Bill Pulte began transferring control after a weekend of questions about why he remained in the job. During his brief tenure, Pulte said the Office of the Director of National Intelligence had cut staffing by about 30% from its level several weeks earlier, though he did not release details that would allow the figure to be independently verified.
Ongoing2
This story has run 3 times over 8 days, starting Jul 27.
- Senate advances Jay Clayton for intelligence chief, 51–43
- Senate confirms Jay Clayton as intelligence chief in 51-47 party-line vote
- Clayton takes intelligence post — this issue
White House keeps its new AI pre-release rules private
AXIOSThe voluntary framework could give the government up to 30 days of access to advanced AI models before other trusted partners see them. The White House says the rules are finished, but has not disclosed which models qualify, which labs helped write them or when any company will use them.
Kaptur hurt in hit-and-run
NBC NEWSMarcy Kaptur (Rep-D Ohio) was hospitalized with non-life-threatening injuries after a hit-and-run driver struck the vehicle carrying her to a Sunday church service in Toledo. Her spokesperson said she was alert and receiving treatment.
Reflecting pool charges dropped
WSJU.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro dropped charges against Olympian David Hearn and at least three others after evidence attributed damage at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool to a faulty installation rather than vandalism. President Donald Trump criticized the decision, saying Pirro “choked” and “folded like an umbrella.”
Cognitive decline can be missed by long-term-care screens
NBERA Dutch study found that 42% of cognitively impaired older adults living in the community used no formal or informal long-term care. That is not evidence they were denied care: the authors say many may manage on their own, and reported unmet need is low in the Netherlands. The useful warning is that cognition predicted care use beyond physical and functional limitations, so a program that asks mainly whether someone can bathe, dress or move around may miss a different kind of need.
Senate advances shutdown patch
POLITICOGovernment fundingSenate appropriators unveiled a bipartisan bill that would keep federal agencies funded at roughly current levels through Dec. 11, averting an Oct. 1 shutdown if enacted and postponing broader negotiations until after the midterms. The measure would also temporarily block the Trump administration’s plan to shift greater control over scientific grants to political appointees.
UEFA threatens FIFA with legal action
APUEFA warned FIFA it could sue over Gianni Infantino’s failed attempt to transfer World Cup commercial rights into a new venture—an unusually public fight over who controls the tournament’s media and sponsorship business.
Elections10 races
The midterms · 91 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 87%, Kalshi 84%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 46%, Kalshi 47%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 3.0pp gap / 1.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 86% | 84% | — | 44% |
| 6 days ago | 86% | 84% | 44% | 45% |
| 5 days ago | 86% | 84% | 44% | 46% |
| 4 days ago | 86% | 83% | 44% | 47% |
| 3 days ago | 86% | 84% | 45% | 46% |
| 2 days ago | 86% | 83% | 45% | 46% |
| yesterday | 86% | 83% | 45% | 47% |
| today | 87% | 84% | 46% | 47% |
3 closest races
sWisconsin governor generalWisconsin governorparties dead evenHong51.0%Tiffany51.5%books split
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor
Open seat; Francesca Hong leads the Aug. 11 Democratic primary, while Tom Tiffany is the likely GOP nominee.
The books name different leaders
Wisconsin governor general
Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.
Aug 4, 10:40 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.5ppWisconsin governor general. Lead in percentage points, positive to Tom Tiffany. Kalshi: Tiffany ahead by 3 points. Polymarket: Hong ahead by 1.5 points. Every day is in the table below.
today
- Tiffany+3%Kalshi
- Hong+1.5%Polymarket
- Tiffany49.5%Polymarket
- Tiffany51.5%Kalshi
- Hong51.0%Polymarket
- Hong48.5%Kalshi
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
The lead is one candidate’s price minus the other’s, at the same venue on the same day — never one book’s Tuesday against the other’s Thursday. It is drawn only where a venue priced both candidates, so a line starts late rather than being stretched across days it was never quoted over.
A day inside a tenth of a point is printed as levelrather than being rounded onto somebody’s side: on a chart whose whole subject is who is in front, a dead heat shown as a win is the one error that cannot be recovered from the drawing.
The markets: Tom Tiffany Polymarket, Kalshi · Francesca Hong Polymarket, Kalshi
Every price behind the chart, and the lead it produces. Wisconsin governor general, snapshot Aug 4, 10:40 AM CT. Day Tiffany · Polymarket Hong · Polymarket Lead · Polymarket Tiffany · Kalshi Hong · Kalshi Lead · Kalshi 7 days ago — — — 43.0% 59.0% Hong +16% 6 days ago 46.5% 54.0% Hong +7.5% 44.0% 58.0% Hong +14% 5 days ago 42.5% 58.5% Hong +16% 46.0% 56.0% Hong +10% 4 days ago 44.5% 55.5% Hong +11% 49.0% 53.0% Hong +4% 3 days ago 45.0% 55.5% Hong +10.5% 49.0% 52.0% Hong +3% 2 days ago 49.0% 51.0% Hong +2% 53.0% 48.0% Tiffany +5% yesterday 48.0% 52.5% Hong +4.5% 52.0% 48.0% Tiffany +4% today 49.5% 51.0% Hong +1.5% 51.5% 48.5% Tiffany +3% rOhio Senate generalOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate
Sherrod Brown faces Jon Husted in a Nov. 3 special election.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate general
Aug 4, 10:40 AM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate general. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 47.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 53% · Jon Husted 47%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days agoPolymarket$70.2K49.5%Kalshi243K contracts · 53%/54%51.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days agoPolymarket$56.7K51.5%Kalshi400K contracts · 46%/48%50.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate general, snapshot Aug 4, 10:40 AM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 49.5% 51.0% 51.5% 50% 6 days ago 49.5% 52.0% 51.5% 48% 5 days ago 51.5% 53.0% 49.5% 47% 4 days ago 51.5% 53.0% 49.0% 48% 3 days ago 51.5% 54.0% 50.5% 48% 2 days ago 50.5% 53.0% 50.5% 47% yesterday 50.5% 54.0% 50.0% 48% today 50.5% 53.5% 49.5% 47% nTexas Senate generalTexas Senate
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate
Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico.
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate general
Aug 4, 10:40 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate general. Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 51.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; James Talarico (D): Polymarket 48.0%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Ken Paxton 53% · James Talarico 47%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ken Paxton (R)7 days agoPolymarket$357K—Kalshi4.0M contracts · 53%/54%55%venue gap—7-day move-2.0ppJames Talarico (D)7 days agoPolymarket$298K—Kalshi3.1M contracts · 46%/47%47%venue gap—7-day move+2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas Senate general, snapshot Aug 4, 10:40 AM CT. Day Ken Paxton · Polymarket Ken Paxton · Kalshi James Talarico · Polymarket James Talarico · Kalshi 7 days ago — 55.0% — 47.0% 6 days ago 53.5% 55.0% 46.0% 47.0% 5 days ago 52.5% 53.0% 48.5% 48.0% 4 days ago 51.5% 55.0% 49.5% 47.0% 3 days ago 51.5% 54.0% 47.5% 47.0% 2 days ago 52.5% 55.0% 47.5% 46.0% yesterday 52.5% 55.0% 47.5% 47.0% today 51.5% 53.5% 48.0% 46.5%
The other 7 races
Senate4 of 6
oAlaska Senate generalAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate
Democrat Mary Peltola is challenging Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate general
Aug 4, 10:40 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate general. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 55.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Dan Sullivan 45%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Dan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$110K—Kalshi261K contracts · 45%/46%47%venue gap—7-day move+4.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate general, snapshot Aug 4, 10:40 AM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago — — 47.0% 6 days ago 60.5% 40.0% 48.0% 5 days ago 60.5% 40.5% 46.0% 4 days ago 60.5% 40.5% 46.0% 3 days ago 52.5% 44.5% 46.0% 2 days ago 57.5% 44.5% 46.0% yesterday 56.0% 44.5% 46.0% today 55.5% 44.5% 45.5% pIowa Senate generalIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate
Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek are running for Joni Ernst’s open seat.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate general
Aug 4, 10:40 AM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate general. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 57% · Josh Turek 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$81.9K—Kalshi544K contracts · 57%/58%60%venue gap—7-day move-2.0ppJosh Turek (D)7 days agoPolymarket$86.3K—Kalshi450K contracts · 42%/43%41%venue gap—7-day move+2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate general, snapshot Aug 4, 10:40 AM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago — 60.0% — 41.0% 6 days ago 57.5% 59.0% 43.5% 42.0% 5 days ago 56.5% 57.0% 43.5% 42.0% 4 days ago 56.5% 57.0% 44.0% 43.0% 3 days ago 56.0% 58.0% 44.5% 43.0% 2 days ago 55.5% 58.0% 45.5% 43.0% yesterday 55.5% 58.0% 45.5% 43.0% today 55.5% 57.5% 45.5% 42.5% mMaine Senate generalMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate
Susan Collins faces Troy Jackson, selected after the Democratic primary winner withdrew.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate general
Aug 4, 10:40 AM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate general. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 63.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 33.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 65% · Susan Collins 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$702K—Kalshi1.7M contracts · 63%/64%64%venue gap—7-day move0.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$402K—Kalshi1.9M contracts · 36%/37%36%venue gap—7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate general, snapshot Aug 4, 10:40 AM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago — 64.0% — 36.0% 6 days ago 67.5% 64.0% 33.5% 37.0% 5 days ago 67.5% 64.0% 33.0% 37.0% 4 days ago 67.5% 63.0% 33.0% 38.0% 3 days ago 66.5% 64.0% 33.0% 37.0% 2 days ago 67.5% 64.0% 33.0% 35.0% yesterday 67.5% 64.0% 33.5% 37.0% today 67.5% 63.5% 33.5% 36.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
qMichigan Senate generalMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate
Gary Peters is retiring; Mike Rogers is the GOP nominee while Democrats vote Aug. 4.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate general
Aug 4, 10:40 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate general. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 66.0%, Kalshi 64.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 35.0%, Kalshi 35.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 65% · Mike Rogers 35%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)*7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$105K69.5%Kalshi173K contracts · 64%/65%70.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-3.5ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$58.0K—Kalshi269K contracts · 35%/36%30%venue gap—7-day move+3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate general, snapshot Aug 4, 10:40 AM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 69.5% 70.0% — 30.0% 6 days ago 68.5% 70.0% 32.0% 30.0% 5 days ago 67.5% 70.0% 32.5% 32.0% 4 days ago 67.5% 68.0% 33.0% 32.0% 3 days ago 63.5% 67.0% 37.0% 33.0% 2 days ago 66.5% 68.0% 32.0% 34.0% yesterday 67.5% 64.0% 33.5% 36.0% today 66.0% 64.5% 35.0% 35.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors3 of 4
tGeorgia governor generalGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor
Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms faces Republican Rick Jackson for Georgia's open governor seat.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor general
Aug 4, 10:40 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor general. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 58.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 41.0%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 59% · Rick Jackson 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$28.4K57%Kalshi222K contracts · 58%/59%59%venue gap2.0pp7-day move+1.5ppRick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.5K42%Kalshi251K contracts · 41%/42%42%venue gap0.0pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor general, snapshot Aug 4, 10:40 AM CT. Day Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi 7 days ago 57.0% 59.0% 42.0% 42.0% 6 days ago 58.0% 58.0% 41.5% 41.0% 5 days ago 58.5% 58.0% 41.5% 42.0% 4 days ago 58.5% 59.0% 41.0% 42.0% 3 days ago 58.5% 59.0% 41.5% 41.0% 2 days ago 58.5% 59.0% 41.0% 43.0% yesterday 58.5% 59.0% 41.0% 43.0% today 58.5% 58.5% 41.0% 41.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
uNevada governor generalNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor
Democrat Aaron Ford is challenging Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor general
Aug 4, 10:40 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor general. Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 55%, Kalshi 56%; Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 46.0%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 3–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Aaron Ford 56% · Joe Lombardo 44%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Aaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$11.5K—Kalshi94.5K contracts · 55%/57%—venue gap—7-day move-1.0ppJoe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$32.6K48.5%Kalshi123K contracts · 43%/44%—venue gap—7-day move-2.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor general, snapshot Aug 4, 10:40 AM CT. Day Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi 7 days ago — — 48.5% — 6 days ago 56.0% — 45.0% — 5 days ago 57.0% — 44.0% — 4 days ago 55.0% — 45.5% 44.0% 3 days ago 56.5% — 44.5% 44.0% 2 days ago 57.0% 58% 43.5% 44.0% yesterday 55.0% 57% 44.0% 44.0% today 55.0% 56% 46.0% 43.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
lOhio governor generalOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor
Republican Vivek Ramaswamy faces Democrat Amy Acton for an open seat; markets give the GOP only a modest edge.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor general
Aug 4, 10:40 AM CT
widest venue gap 5.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor general. Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 56.0%, Kalshi 51.5%; Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 44%, Kalshi 49%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 5.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Vivek Ramaswamy 52% · Amy Acton 48%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$56.8K—Kalshi559K contracts · 51%/52%51%venue gap—7-day move0.0ppAmy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$59.0K—Kalshi369K contracts · 48%/50%51%venue gap—7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor general, snapshot Aug 4, 10:40 AM CT. Day Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi 7 days ago — 51.0% — 51% 6 days ago 56.0% 51.0% 43.5% 49% 5 days ago 56.0% 51.0% 43.5% 50% 4 days ago 55.5% 52.0% 45.5% 47% 3 days ago 56.0% 53.0% 45.5% 47% 2 days ago 56.0% 53.0% 44.0% 49% yesterday 56.0% 51.0% 44.0% 48% today 56.0% 51.5% 44.0% 49% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Aug 4, 10:40 AM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
Not news news3 stories
An NBER working paper estimates 26% pass-through to consumer-goods prices and says indirect increases took nine to 12 months to arrive.
Three bars of the estimated effect of a uniform 10 percent tariff on consumer-goods prices: 1.7 percentage points from imported finished goods, 0.77 points from imported inputs used by U.S. producers and 0.17 points from domestic firms raising markups.
Most of a tariff's price effect arrives on imported finished goods
The paper's illustrative case is a uniform 10% tariff, which it estimates would raise consumer-goods prices about 2.6%. These are the three components of that figure; they sum to 2.64 points. It is a July 2026 working paper and has not been peer reviewed.
The numbers
| Percentage points added to consumer-goods prices | Price effect | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Imported finished goods | 1.70 pp | the border-price effect appeared almost immediately |
| Imported inputs | 0.77 pp | used by U.S. producers; took nine to 12 months to arrive |
| Domestic markups | 0.17 pp | U.S. firms raising markups; took nine to 12 months to arrive |
Dot plot comparing favorable views of the United States and China across 36 countries
Notable results: Canada moved from U.S. 57% / China 14% in 2023 to U.S. 33% / China 44% in 2026. Mexico registered China 59% / U.S. 40%. The United States still led in India, Japan, the Philippines and South Korea.
Source: Pew Research Center, Spring 2026 Global Attitudes Survey.
Grouped bars of Pew favorability ratings: in Canada, 57 percent viewed the United States favorably and 14 percent viewed China favorably in 2023, against 33 percent and 44 percent in 2026; in Mexico in 2026, 40 percent viewed the United States favorably and 59 percent China.
Canada's view of the two countries changed places in three years
Pew surveyed 42,151 adults across 36 countries between Feb. 8 and May 13, 2026. China led the U.S. on favorability in 25 of them; the U.S. led in six.
The numbers
| Share with a favorable view | United States | China |
|---|---|---|
| Canada, 2023 | 57% | 14% |
| Canada, 2026 | 33% | 44% |
| Mexico, 2026 | 40% | 59% |
Related reading
An NBER working paper finds presidential rhetoric about China became markedly more negative after the early 2000s, converging with already-negative congressional, media, social-media and think-tank language. The authors find evidence of bottom-up diffusion across institutions, not that presidents alone set the national tone.
The coordinated move pulled the dollar below ¥156 after it traded above ¥163.
Two bars comparing the Federal Reserve's target range, drawn at its 3.75 percent top with a reference line at its 3.5 percent bottom, with the Bank of Japan's 1 percent benchmark rate.
The rate gap behind the yen's slide did not move
Tokyo and Washington bought yen after the dollar traded above ¥163, its strongest in 40 years; it fell to about ¥155.20. The differential that draws money into dollar assets is unchanged.
The numbers
| Benchmark policy rate | Benchmark rate | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve | 3.75% | top of a 3.5%–3.75% target range |
| Bank of Japan | 1.00% |
Trump’s comments1
What Trump said today, from policy conditions to off-the-cuff remarks.
Trump praises yen intervention, then invokes Pearl Harbor
Trump called U.S. support for Japan’s currency intervention a “signal of friendship,” then said Japan had been good to the United States “with the exception, of course, of Pearl Harbor.”