News news3 stories
In a Sunday, Aug. 16 post, he told Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to "substantially reduce" the joint exercises, calling them costly and "hostile" to Pyongyang.
Trump wrote on Truth Social that he is "not happy with the fact that the United States has, long ago, agreed" to hold the joint exercises, and said he had directed the Pentagon to scale them back. He cited his "very good relationship" with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, and praised North Korea in the same post. The post also scolded South Korea for what Trump described as a failure to help denuclearize Iran. No timeline, target size, or list of which exercises would be trimmed accompanied the announcement.
BackgroundWhat Trump's last drill freeze, in 2018, actually changed
- He called the drills "war games" and "provocative" at the June 12, 2018 Singapore summit with Kim; the Pentagon suspended Ulchi Freedom Guardian six days later, on June 18.
- The Pentagon put the cost of that one canceled exercise at about $14 million — roughly 0.002% of that year's $700 billion defense budget.
- Field training stayed shrunk or renamed for four years; full-scale exercises did not return until August 2022, under Ulchi Freedom Shield.
- North Korea ran no nuclear test during the pause, and more than a dozen rounds of missile tests in 2019, the year the Hanoi summit collapsed.
Related reading
Read more about: Ruben Gallego (Sen-D Arizona) compares boosting Iran war funding to "giving a drunk more money and hoping that they'll stop drinking"
Trump faulted Seoul for not backing him on Iran, and this shows the congressional fight over funding that war.
Ruben Gallego (Sen-D Arizona) criticized congressional efforts to increase funding for the Iran campaign, saying more money would not change the administration's conduct of it.
Ongoing1 earlier update9 days
This story has run 2 times over 9 days, starting Aug 8.
- Senate confirms Todd Blanche as attorney general, 50–49
- New AG Todd Blanche says Trump's opinions can shape who gets prosecuted — this issue
Todd Blanche, confirmed to run the Justice Department last week, declined on two Sunday shows (Aug. 16) to promise the department will act independently of the White House.
Attorney General Todd Blanche said on Sunday, Aug. 16, that Trump's views can factor into decisions about individual prosecutions. In appearances on Fox News's "Fox News Sunday" and NBC's "Meet the Press," he declined to promise that the Justice Department would always act independently of the White House. Blanche said Trump has never asked him to prosecute a specific person and never would. He also told Fox host Shannon Bream that his proposed "anti-weaponization" fund, which would have compensated people who said they were politically persecuted, "is dead" and that Trump knows it.
What the independence norm is, and where it came from
- The wall between the White House and DOJ case decisions is custom, not law — it was built after Watergate, when Richard Nixon used the department against political enemies.
- Attorney General Griffin Bell wrote the first formal contacts policy in 1978; every administration since has issued its own version limiting who at the White House may call DOJ about a case.
- Blanche was Trump's personal defense lawyer in the 2024 New York hush-money trial before joining the department — the first time in modern history a president's private criminal attorney has run the DOJ.
Related reading
Read more about: Blanche says DOJ's executive-privilege position is not a new legal concept
During the same Sunday interview round on Aug. 16, Blanche defended a separate Justice Department opinion on executive privilege.
Attorney General Todd Blanche on Sunday dismissed criticism over the Justice Department's opinion on executive privilege, saying it does not represent "any novel legal concept."
Read more about: Prosecutors examined a firm tied to the judge in Trump's hush-money trial
A federal subpoena examined a fundraising firm once co-owned by a relative of the judge who oversaw Trump's 2024 New York hush-money trial.
The U.S. attorney in Chicago subpoenaed a fund-raising firm that had been co-owned by a relative of the judge who oversaw Donald Trump's 2024 hush-money trial in New York.
Iran's first public accounting of the crews lost in the war's opening hours puts them in Qatari custody. Qatar denies it.
Iran says the three crew members of two fighter jets lost in the opening hours of its war with the United States are alive and in Qatari hands. The jets were on a strike run when Qatari air defenses shot them down, and Tehran says the airmen have been held in Qatar ever since. Qatar's government says it is not holding any Iranian pilots and has none of the three men. Neither side has released names, photographs, or any independent confirmation, and no outside party has publicly verified either version.
Whoever has the airmen owes them this, under the Third Geneva Convention (the 1949 treaty that sets the rules for prisoners of war):
- Register them: a country holding prisoners of war must pass the names to the Red Cross's Central Tracing Agency, which notifies the home government — the step that would settle this argument in a day.
- Let them write: a captured airman is entitled to send a capture card home within one week of reaching a camp.
- Open the door: the International Committee of the Red Cross has the right to interview prisoners privately, a power written into the 1949 conventions after World War II.
- Give them back: prisoners must be sent home without delay once the fighting stops, not held as leverage for a later negotiation.
- Account for the dead: if the crews did not survive, the same treaties require the side holding the wreckage to document the deaths and return the remains.
Quick bites3
Centcom says the Lincoln, 260 days at sea, has among the Navy's fewest mental health cases
FOX NEWSIran warCentcom chief Adm. Brad Cooper said Sunday that the USS Abraham Lincoln has few mental health cases after 260-plus days in the Middle East without a port call. He visited Saturday, amid claims about living conditions on board; the ship is heading home.
Five shot at Virginia State University; a 19-year-old was found hiding in a dorm closet
THE HILLFive people were shot outside a Virginia State University residence hall around 1:30 a.m. Saturday. Police say they arrested Camron Harris, 19, of Henrico, Virginia, after finding him hiding in a campus dorm closet, and that he is not a VSU student.
Hamas told Kushner in Egypt it still plans to disarm and demilitarize Gaza
AXIOSGazaHamas leaders met Trump adviser Jared Kushner in Egypt on Sunday and said they plan to disarm and demilitarize Gaza, according to a single source with direct knowledge cited by Axios. Hamas, Kushner, and the U.S. and Egyptian governments have not confirmed that account.
Ongoing3
This story has run 4 times over 18 days, starting Jul 30.
- Trump says Hamas agreed to phased disarmament in Gaza; Israel remains skeptical
- Israel raises ‘serious security concerns’ over Hamas disarmament deal
- Netanyahu rejects Trump's 15-point Gaza plan, says troops stay until Hamas disarms
- Hamas told Kushner in Egypt it still plans to disarm and demilitarize Gaza — this issue
Elections21 races
The midterms · 78 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 88%, Kalshi 86%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 51%, Kalshi 49%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 2.0pp gap / 2.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 88% | 84% | 51% | 46% |
| 6 days ago | 88% | 85% | 53% | 49% |
| 5 days ago | 88% | 85% | 53% | 49% |
| 4 days ago | 88% | 86% | 53% | 50% |
| 3 days ago | 88% | 86% | 53% | 48% |
| 2 days ago | 88% | 86% | 53% | 49% |
| yesterday | 88% | 86% | 51% | 48% |
| today | 88% | 86% | 51% | 49% |
3 closest races
gAlaska SenatePeltola vs. SullivanSullivan51.0%Peltola53.5%books split
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and the two venues do not agree on who is ahead.
The books name different leaders
Alaska Senate
Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.
Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 5.0ppAlaska Senate. Lead in percentage points, positive to Mary Peltola. Kalshi: Peltola ahead by 7.5 points. Polymarket: Sullivan ahead by 2.5 points. Every day is in the table below.
today
- Peltola+7.5%Kalshi
- Sullivan+2.5%Polymarket
- Peltola48.5%Polymarket
- Peltola53.5%Kalshi
- Sullivan51%Polymarket
- Sullivan46%Kalshi
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
The lead is one candidate’s price minus the other’s, at the same venue on the same day — never one book’s Tuesday against the other’s Thursday. It is drawn only where a venue priced both candidates, so a line starts late rather than being stretched across days it was never quoted over.
A day inside a tenth of a point is printed as levelrather than being rounded onto somebody’s side: on a chart whose whole subject is who is in front, a dead heat shown as a win is the one error that cannot be recovered from the drawing.
The markets: Mary Peltola Polymarket, Kalshi · Dan Sullivan Polymarket, Kalshi
Every price behind the chart, and the lead it produces. Alaska Senate, snapshot Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT. Day Peltola · Polymarket Sullivan · Polymarket Lead · Polymarket Peltola · Kalshi Sullivan · Kalshi Lead · Kalshi 7 days ago 52.0% 49% Peltola +3.5% 57.0% 44% Peltola +13% 6 days ago 51.0% 49% Peltola +2.5% 52.0% 49% Peltola +3% 5 days ago 51.0% 49% Peltola +2.5% 55.0% 45% Peltola +10% 4 days ago 51.5% 49% Peltola +3% 54.0% 45% Peltola +9% 3 days ago 51.0% 49% Peltola +2.5% 57.0% 47% Peltola +10% 2 days ago 51.5% 49% Peltola +3% 53.0% 47% Peltola +6% yesterday 48.5% 51% Sullivan +2.5% 56.0% 47% Peltola +9% today 48.5% 51% Sullivan +2.5% 53.5% 46% Peltola +7.5% fTexas SenatePaxton vs. TalaricoTalarico51.5%Paxton51.5%books split
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
Ken Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D).
The two venues do not agree on who is ahead.
The books name different leaders
Texas Senate
Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.
Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0ppTexas Senate. Lead in percentage points, positive to Ken Paxton. Kalshi: Paxton ahead by 3 points. Polymarket: Talarico ahead by 2 points. Every day is in the table below.
today
- Paxton+3%Kalshi
- Talarico+2%Polymarket
- Paxton49.5%Polymarket
- Paxton51.5%Kalshi
- Talarico51.5%Polymarket
- Talarico48.5%Kalshi
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
The lead is one candidate’s price minus the other’s, at the same venue on the same day — never one book’s Tuesday against the other’s Thursday. It is drawn only where a venue priced both candidates, so a line starts late rather than being stretched across days it was never quoted over.
A day inside a tenth of a point is printed as levelrather than being rounded onto somebody’s side: on a chart whose whole subject is who is in front, a dead heat shown as a win is the one error that cannot be recovered from the drawing.
The markets: Ken Paxton Polymarket, Kalshi · James Talarico Polymarket, Kalshi
Every price behind the chart, and the lead it produces. Texas Senate, snapshot Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT. Day Paxton · Polymarket Talarico · Polymarket Lead · Polymarket Paxton · Kalshi Talarico · Kalshi Lead · Kalshi 7 days ago 47.5% 51.5% Talarico +4% 51.0% 50.0% Paxton +1% 6 days ago 47.5% 51.5% Talarico +4% 49.0% 52.0% Talarico +3% 5 days ago 48.5% 51.5% Talarico +3% 46.0% 55.0% Talarico +9% 4 days ago 49.5% 51.5% Talarico +2% 49.0% 51.0% Talarico +2% 3 days ago 49.5% 51.5% Talarico +2% 50.0% 50.0% level 2 days ago 49.5% 51.5% Talarico +2% 51.0% 51.0% level yesterday 49.5% 51.5% Talarico +2% 51.0% 49.0% Paxton +2% today 49.5% 51.5% Talarico +2% 51.5% 48.5% Paxton +3% dOhio governorActon vs. RamaswamyRamaswamy48.5%Acton50.5%books split
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the two venues do not agree on who is ahead.
The books name different leaders
Ohio governor
Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.
Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.5ppOhio governor. Lead in percentage points, positive to Amy Acton. Kalshi: Acton ahead by 3 points. Polymarket: Ramaswamy ahead by 0.5 points. Every day is in the table below.
today
- Acton+3%Kalshi
- Ramaswamy+0.5%Polymarket
- Acton48.0%Polymarket
- Acton50.5%Kalshi
- Ramaswamy48.5%Polymarket
- Ramaswamy47.5%Kalshi
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
The lead is one candidate’s price minus the other’s, at the same venue on the same day — never one book’s Tuesday against the other’s Thursday. It is drawn only where a venue priced both candidates, so a line starts late rather than being stretched across days it was never quoted over.
A day inside a tenth of a point is printed as levelrather than being rounded onto somebody’s side: on a chart whose whole subject is who is in front, a dead heat shown as a win is the one error that cannot be recovered from the drawing.
The markets: Amy Acton Polymarket, Kalshi · Vivek Ramaswamy Polymarket, Kalshi
Every price behind the chart, and the lead it produces. Ohio governor, snapshot Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT. Day Acton · Polymarket Ramaswamy · Polymarket Lead · Polymarket Acton · Kalshi Ramaswamy · Kalshi Lead · Kalshi 7 days ago 53.5% 46.0% Acton +7.5% 50.0% 51.0% Ramaswamy +1% 6 days ago 53.0% 45.0% Acton +8% 51.0% 51.0% level 5 days ago 52.5% 44.0% Acton +8.5% 50.0% 50.0% level 4 days ago 48.5% 50.5% Ramaswamy +2% 50.0% 49.0% Acton +1% 3 days ago 48.5% 50.5% Ramaswamy +2% 51.0% 50.0% Acton +1% 2 days ago 48.0% 48.5% Ramaswamy +0.5% 50.0% 46.0% Acton +4% yesterday 48.0% 48.5% Ramaswamy +0.5% 50.0% 48.0% Acton +2% today 48.0% 48.5% Ramaswamy +0.5% 50.5% 47.5% Acton +3%
The other 18 races
Senate8 of 10
oGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.1pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.0%, Kalshi 91.9%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 7.55%, Kalshi 8.35%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.1pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 92% · Mike Collins 8.3%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$40.3K93.5%Kalshi294K contracts · 92%/92%92.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-0.5ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$66.8K7.25%Kalshi751K contracts · 8.1%/8.6%8.70%venue gap1.4pp7-day move+0.3ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 93.5% 92.0% 7.25% 8.70% 6 days ago 92.0% 90.9% 7.75% 8.90% 5 days ago 93.0% 91.0% 7.75% 9.60% 4 days ago 93.0% 91.5% 7.70% 8.50% 3 days ago 93.0% 91.7% 7.70% 8.90% 2 days ago 93.0% 92.0% 7.55% 8.70% yesterday 93.0% 92.3% 7.55% 8.70% today 93.0% 91.9% 7.55% 8.35% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
hIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 55.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 56% · Josh Turek 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$104K56.5%Kalshi871K contracts · 55%/56%59.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+3.0ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$102K43.5%Kalshi758K contracts · 43%/44%41.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 56.5% 59.0% 43.5% 41.0% 6 days ago 57.0% 60.0% 43.5% 41.0% 5 days ago 56.5% 59.0% 43.5% 41.0% 4 days ago 57.0% 55.0% 43.5% 45.0% 3 days ago 57.5% 55.0% 43.0% 45.0% 2 days ago 57.5% 55.0% 43.5% 45.0% yesterday 59.5% 56.0% 40.5% 43.0% today 59.5% 55.5% 40.5% 43.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
eMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 6.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 65.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 35.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 6.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 67% · Susan Collins 34%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$717K69.5%Kalshi1.8M contracts · 65%/66%65.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move0.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$432K30.5%Kalshi2.1M contracts · 35%/36%36.0%venue gap5.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 69.5% 65.0% 30.5% 36.0% 6 days ago 69.5% 65.0% 30.5% 36.0% 5 days ago 69.5% 67.0% 29.5% 35.0% 4 days ago 69.5% 66.0% 29.5% 35.0% 3 days ago 69.5% 66.0% 29.5% 36.0% 2 days ago 69.5% 66.0% 29.5% 36.0% yesterday 69.5% 66.0% 29.5% 36.0% today 69.5% 65.5% 29.5% 35.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
iMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 58% · Mike Rogers 42%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$239K58.5%Kalshi802K contracts · 57%/58%55.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move0.0ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$220K41.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 42%/43%46.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 58.5% 55.0% 41.5% 46.0% 6 days ago 59.5% 57.0% 41.5% 44.0% 5 days ago 57.5% 59.0% 42.5% 42.0% 4 days ago 55.5% 58.0% 43.5% 44.0% 3 days ago 55.5% 54.0% 45.5% 46.0% 2 days ago 58.0% 56.0% 42.5% 45.0% yesterday 58.5% 57.0% 41.5% 44.0% today 58.5% 57.5% 41.5% 42.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
pNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 71.5%, Kalshi 70.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 29.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 71% · Dan Osborn 29%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$79.2K72%Kalshi235K contracts · 70%/71%72%venue gap0.0pp7-day move-0.5ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$24.2K28.5%Kalshi331K contracts · 29%/30%29.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 72.0% 72.0% 28.5% 29.0% 6 days ago 72.0% 71.0% 28.5% 29.0% 5 days ago 71.5% 71.0% 28.5% 29.0% 4 days ago 71.5% 71.0% 28.0% 30.0% 3 days ago 71.0% 71.0% 29.0% 30.0% 2 days ago 71.5% 70.0% 28.0% 30.0% yesterday 71.5% 71.0% 28.5% 30.0% today 71.5% 70.5% 28.5% 29.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
qNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) leads the unresolved Democratic primary; John E. Sununu (R) leads the unresolved Republican primary.
Neither nomination is official yet, though the market already treats both as decided.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 85.5%, Kalshi 88.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 14.5%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 88% · John E. Sununu 13%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)*7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$27.9K85.5%Kalshi70.2K contracts · 87%/90%88.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppJohn E. Sununu (R)*7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$15.9K14.5%Kalshi107K contracts · 12%/13%12.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago 85.5% 88.0% 14.5% 12.0% 6 days ago 86.5% 89.0% 13.0% 12.0% 5 days ago 86.5% 89.0% 14.0% 13.0% 4 days ago 85.0% 89.0% 14.0% 12.0% 3 days ago 85.5% 88.0% 14.5% 13.0% 2 days ago 85.5% 90.4% 14.5% 13.0% yesterday 85.5% 88.0% 14.5% 12.0% today 85.5% 88.5% 14.5% 12.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
nNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.2pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 91.5%, Kalshi 92.5%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 9.50%, Kalshi 8.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 92% · Michael Whatley 8.5%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$35.3K90.5%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 92%/93%91.2%venue gap0.7pp7-day move+1.0ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$54.5K10.5%Kalshi176K contracts · 8.2%/8.3%8.4%venue gap2.1pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 90.5% 91.2% 10.5% 8.40% 6 days ago 91.0% 91.2% 9.0% 8.50% 5 days ago 91.5% 91.4% 8.5% 8.40% 4 days ago 92.5% 92.9% 8.5% 7.60% 3 days ago 92.5% 92.8% 8.5% 8.00% 2 days ago 92.5% 91.7% 8.5% 8.30% yesterday 91.5% 91.6% 9.5% 8.30% today 91.5% 92.5% 9.5% 8.25% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
jOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 52.5%, Kalshi 52.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 46.5%, Kalshi 48.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 53% · Jon Husted 48%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$99.6K51.5%Kalshi768K contracts · 52%/53%50.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$74.1K48.5%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 48%/49%51.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 51.5% 50.0% 48.5% 51.0% 6 days ago 52.5% 50.0% 48.5% 51.0% 5 days ago 52.5% 51.0% 48.5% 51.0% 4 days ago 56.5% 51.0% 44.5% 49.0% 3 days ago 57.5% 53.0% 42.5% 48.0% 2 days ago 52.5% 51.0% 47.0% 49.0% yesterday 52.5% 51.0% 46.5% 50.0% today 52.5% 52.5% 46.5% 48.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors10 of 11
sAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Tom Begich (D) faces Bernadette Wilson (R).
Begich holds a commanding lead after gaining about ten points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 49.0%, Kalshi 49.5%; Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 21.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 5–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Tom Begich 49% · Bernadette Wilson 25%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Tom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$143K50.5%Kalshi54.7K contracts · 49%/50%27.0%venue gap24pp7-day move-1.5ppBernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$164K29%Kalshi28.8K contracts · 19%/23%—venue gap—7-day move-3.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT. Day Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi 7 days ago 50.5% 27.0% 29.0% — 6 days ago 56.0% 48.0% 31.5% — 5 days ago 54.5% 51.0% 26.5% — 4 days ago 53.5% 50.0% 26.0% 27% 3 days ago 53.0% 50.0% 26.0% 24% 2 days ago 54.0% 52.0% 26.0% 28% yesterday 49.0% 50.0% 25.5% 22% today 49.0% 49.5% 25.5% 21% uArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.0%, Kalshi 87.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 13.5%, Kalshi 13.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 87% · Andy Biggs 14%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$30.8K87.5%Kalshi284K contracts · 86%/89%84.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move-0.5ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$35.8K13%Kalshi214K contracts · 13%/14%13%venue gap0.0pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 87.5% 84.0% 13.0% 13.0% 6 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 16.0% 5 days ago 87.5% 87.0% 12.5% 15.0% 4 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 15.0% 3 days ago 87.0% 87.0% 13.0% 15.0% 2 days ago 87.0% 87.0% 13.0% 15.0% yesterday 87.0% 85.0% 13.5% 15.0% today 87.0% 87.5% 13.5% 13.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
lGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead after gaining about five points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 62.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 37.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 60% · Rick Jackson 40%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$30.0K58.5%Kalshi252K contracts · 59%/60%53.0%venue gap5.5pp7-day move+4.0ppRick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$33.5K42%Kalshi309K contracts · 40%/41%46%venue gap4.0pp7-day move-4.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT. Day Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi 7 days ago 58.5% 53.0% 42.0% 46.0% 6 days ago 60.0% 60.0% 40.5% 43.0% 5 days ago 62.5% 61.0% 36.5% 40.0% 4 days ago 64.0% 61.0% 36.5% 40.0% 3 days ago 63.5% 61.0% 37.0% 42.0% 2 days ago 62.0% 60.0% 37.0% 41.0% yesterday 62.5% 60.0% 37.5% 42.0% today 62.5% 59.5% 37.5% 40.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
rIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about six points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 74.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 74% · Zach Lahn 27%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$25.1K70%Kalshi185K contracts · 74%/75%65%venue gap5.0pp7-day move+2.5ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$34.9K26.5%Kalshi209K contracts · 26%/27%36.0%venue gap9.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 70.0% 65.0% 26.5% 36.0% 6 days ago 72.0% 69.0% 26.5% 31.0% 5 days ago 71.5% 72.0% 28.5% 28.0% 4 days ago 72.5% 72.0% 26.0% 28.0% 3 days ago 72.0% 72.0% 26.5% 28.0% 2 days ago 72.0% 72.0% 26.5% 28.0% yesterday 72.5% 74.0% 27.5% 27.0% today 72.5% 74.5% 27.5% 26.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
tMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 85.5%, Kalshi 86.5%; John James (R): Polymarket 15.0%, Kalshi 15.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 86% · John James 15%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$47.1K84%Kalshi71.4K contracts · 85%/88%85%venue gap1.0pp7-day move+1.5ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$150K15%Kalshi112K contracts · 14%/17%17%venue gap2.0pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 84.0% 85.0% 15% 17.0% 6 days ago 84.0% 85.0% 15% 15.0% 5 days ago 84.0% 86.0% 15% 17.0% 4 days ago 84.0% 86.0% 15% 17.0% 3 days ago 85.5% 84.0% 15% 16.0% 2 days ago 85.5% 84.0% 15% 16.0% yesterday 85.5% 88.0% 15% 17.0% today 85.5% 86.5% 15% 15.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
mNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a clear lead after gaining about seven points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 63.0%, Kalshi 60.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 38.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 61% · Aaron Ford 38%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$47.0K64%Kalshi192K contracts · 60%/61%46%venue gap18pp7-day move-1.0ppAaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$21.0K32.5%Kalshi458K contracts · 38%/39%—venue gap—7-day move+4.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT. Day Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi 7 days ago 64.0% 46.0% 32.5% — 6 days ago 62.0% 65.0% 37.0% 56.0% 5 days ago 64.0% 60.0% 34.5% 32.0% 4 days ago 63.0% 63.0% 36.5% 41.0% 3 days ago 62.5% 62.0% 37.5% 36.0% 2 days ago 63.5% 62.0% 36.0% 40.0% yesterday 63.0% 61.0% 36.5% 37.0% today 63.0% 60.5% 36.5% 38.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
wNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.4pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.50%, Kalshi 93.35%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 5.50%, Kalshi 6.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.4pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 94% · Bruce Blakeman 6.7%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$46.9K93.5%Kalshi208K contracts · 93%/94%95.6%venue gap2.1pp7-day move+1.0ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$49.1K6.5%Kalshi485K contracts · 6.8%/6.9%5.3%venue gap1.2pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 93.5% 95.60% 6.5% 5.30% 6 days ago 93.5% 96.00% 6.5% 5.30% 5 days ago 93.5% 94.10% 6.0% 8.00% 4 days ago 93.5% 93.50% 6.0% 8.00% 3 days ago 93.5% 93.50% 6.0% 7.90% 2 days ago 94.0% 93.40% 6.0% 7.90% yesterday 94.5% 93.70% 5.5% 8.00% today 94.5% 93.35% 5.5% 6.85% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
xPennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.6pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 95.5%, Kalshi 93.9%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 5.5%, Kalshi 5.8%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.6pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 4–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 94% · Stacy Garrity 5.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$7.3K95.5%Kalshi67.8K contracts · 92%/96%—venue gap—7-day move0.0ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$12.9K5.5%Kalshi351K contracts · 3.8%/7.8%—venue gap—7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 95.5% — 5.5% — 6 days ago 95.5% — 5.5% — 5 days ago 95.5% — 5.5% — 4 days ago 95.5% — 5.5% — 3 days ago 95.5% 93.8% 5.5% 6.3% 2 days ago 95.5% 94.8% 5.5% 6.7% yesterday 95.5% 94.9% 5.5% 6.7% today 95.5% 93.9% 5.5% 5.8% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
vTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 85.95%, Kalshi 87.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 14.5%, Kalshi 13.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 87% · Gina Hinojosa 14%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$25.1K84.1%Kalshi117K contracts · 87%/88%88.0%venue gap3.9pp7-day move+1.9ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.3K15%Kalshi514K contracts · 13%/14%13%venue gap2.0pp7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 84.10% 88.0% 15.0% 13.0% 6 days ago 83.15% 86.0% 14.0% 13.0% 5 days ago 81.75% 86.0% 17.0% 14.0% 4 days ago 84.30% 86.0% 16.0% 15.0% 3 days ago 84.65% 87.0% 16.0% 15.0% 2 days ago 84.60% 87.0% 15.5% 15.0% yesterday 85.95% 87.0% 14.5% 14.0% today 85.95% 87.5% 14.5% 13.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
kWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: the Republican side is down about 36 points.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 76.5%, Kalshi 74.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 23.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 75% · Tom Tiffany 26%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$93.1K43%Kalshi395K contracts · 74%/75%39%venue gap4.0pp7-day move+34ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$176K58%Kalshi417K contracts · 26%/27%63%venue gap5.0pp7-day move-35ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 43.0% 39.0% 58.0% 63.0% 6 days ago 77.5% 64.0% 22.5% 32.0% 5 days ago 77.5% 77.0% 22.5% 24.0% 4 days ago 77.5% 77.0% 23.5% 26.0% 3 days ago 76.5% 73.0% 23.5% 27.0% 2 days ago 75.5% 72.0% 23.5% 29.0% yesterday 76.5% 74.0% 23.5% 28.0% today 76.5% 74.5% 23.5% 26.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
Not news news1 story
The Louisiana Republican who cleared Kennedy's path to the Cabinet now says it is 'pretty evident' the promise that won his vote was false.
Bill Cassidy (Sen-R Louisiana), a gastroenterologist who chairs the Senate health committee, said in a Sunday, Aug. 16 interview that Donald Trump's executive order rewriting the childhood immunization schedule would mean more appointments and more separate injections for the same protection. "Now instead of your child getting two shots," he said, walking through a schedule broken into additional visits, each of which a family and its insurer get billed for. Cassidy also said it was "pretty evident" that Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had broken the pledge he made to the committee before his confirmation not to touch that schedule. Kennedy has said the order is about giving parents choices between combination shots and single ones; Cassidy's answer was that the choice is priced, and that the price lands on the parent.
BackgroundWhat Kennedy promised the Senate health committee to win Cassidy's vote
- Keep the CDC's existing childhood immunization schedule "without changes" — the exact commitment Cassidy read aloud on the Senate floor before voting yes.
- Give the committee 30 days' advance notice before changing the membership or process of the CDC's vaccine advisory panel.
- Appear before the committee every quarter, in person, to answer for HHS decisions.
- Leave in place the CDC's published materials stating that vaccines do not cause autism.
- Meet with Cassidy "multiple times a month," a standing working arrangement between a secretary and a committee chairman.