U.S. sanctions nearly 60 Iranian targets and threatens countries that keep trading with Tehran

News news4 stories

U.S. sanctions nearly 60 Iranian targets and threatens countries that keep trading with Tehran

Treasury’s “Operation Economic Outcast,” announced Monday, Aug. 24, puts China and other Iranian trading partners at risk of U.S. penalties—but sets no deadline.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced sanctions against nearly 60 entities, individuals and vessels tied to Iran. The administration also expanded the parts of Iran’s economy that can trigger sanctions to include digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping. Bessent called the campaign an “economic onslaught against Iran’s financial connections around the globe.” But he gave no timeline for secondary sanctions—U.S. penalties on foreign companies or countries that trade with a sanctioned target—saying Washington would try “quiet diplomacy” first.

Ongoing1 earlier update5 days

This story has run 2 times over 5 days, starting Aug 20.

Aug 20Trump pauses 50% Canada tariff two hours before it hits, buying three days
Aug 25Trump imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods and threatened the same rate on autos and steel — this issue

APCanada trade war

Trump imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods and threatened the same rate on autos and steel

Canada will answer with matching tariffs on $20 billion of U.S. goods on Sept. 8 after trade talks collapsed.

A 50% U.S. tariff on $20 billion of Canadian goods took effect Saturday, Aug. 22. Canada plans matching tariffs on $20 billion of U.S. goods beginning Sept. 8. The targeted Canadian goods equal about 2.6% of the $762.10 billion the countries traded in 2024. Negotiations had collapsed Friday, Aug. 21. Donald Trump then threatened to apply the same tariff rate to Canadian cars, trucks, auto parts and steel starting Jan. 1, 2027. Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada would not accept a negotiating position that treated it as “a subsidiary of the United States.” Ontario Premier Doug Ford warned that Canada could restrict electricity and critical-mineral exports to the United States if the dispute deepens.

U.S. goods trade with Canada

THE NEW YORK TIMESVisa crackdown

Trump proposes a $103,265 fee for each new H-1B skilled-worker visa

The employer charge would rise from $2,000-$5,000 today to at least 20 times that amount.

The Department of Homeland Security proposed the rule on Monday, Aug. 24, 2026. Employers would pay $103,265 for each H-1B skilled-worker visa application covered by the annual limits, up from $2,000-$5,000 today. The increase is $98,265-$101,265 per application. Revenue would support the legal immigration system, including $1 billion for Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Business and immigration advocates said the charge would hurt U.S. employers seeking skilled foreign workers in health care, drug development and engineering.

Across 85,000 slots, the fee could approach $8.8 billion

Red take

Across the 85,000 general and advanced-degree slots under the annual limits, raising the employer charge from $2,000-$5,000 to $103,265 would force firms to reserve visas for hires whose value clearly exceeds the cost and make beneficiaries fund the system. The fee will exclude some worthy smaller employers, so targeted exemptions for genuine health and research shortages are necessary to keep the price test from becoming a balance-sheet test.

Blue take

A $103,265 fee across the 85,000 general and advanced-degree slots under the annual limits would ration skilled-worker access by employer wealth, not by whether hospitals, research firms or engineering companies face genuine shortages. Deterring low-value or wage-cutting applications is legitimate, but a charge implying as much as $8.8 billion before exemptions is too blunt when narrower selection rules could protect domestic workers without pricing out smaller employers.

CBS NEWS

Hawk Fire drives 42,000 people from homes near Reno

Another 45,000 people were told to prepare to leave as the 15,000-acre fire reached 27% containment Monday, Aug. 24.

The human-caused Hawk Fire began northwest of Reno on Saturday, Aug. 22. By Monday, Aug. 24, it had burned 15,000 acres, or about 25 square miles, and was 27% contained. Seven people were injured, including three first responders. One resident said two cars were packed in case the wind changed: “I'm still scared to death. It's like you don't know if the winds are going to shift and it's going to get worse.”

Quick bites3

ICE detained deployed Navy sailor’s father after roughly 20 years in US
CBS NEWS ICE raids
ICE arrested Luis Manuel Aviles Roa during a traffic stop in Key West while his son serves aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln on a nine-month Middle East deployment. DHS says the Nicaraguan immigrant, who has lived in the US for roughly 20 years, entered illegally and will remain detained during removal proceedings.
ICE arrested 1,328 near Washington; about 70% had no convictions or pending charges
FOX NEWS ICE raids
ICE arrested 1,328 undocumented immigrants during a 14-day operation in Virginia and Maryland. Nearly 400 had criminal convictions or pending charges, while about 70% of the 1,328 had neither.
Currently showing Who ICE arrested in the Washington-area operation
Who ICE arrested in the Washington-area operation
Who ICE arrested in the Washington-area operation
House Democrats say Iran war has passed 150 days and $37 billion
THE HILL Iran war
Nearly all Democrats on the Senate Armed Services Committee requested a hearing on extended deployments and troop strain. In an Aug. 21 letter reported by The Hill, nearly 50 House Democrats asked Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to account for a war they said had lasted more than 150 days and cost more than $37 billion.

Election Bites2 bites

MAGA Inc. spends $827,711 to boost Darline Graham before runoff
POLITICO S.C. Senate primary
POLITICO: MAGA Inc. spends $827,711 to boost Darline Graham before runoff

Donald Trump’s super PAC spent $827,711.11 on calls and texts for Darline Graham (St Sen-R South Carolina) before Tuesday’s GOP Senate runoff against Ralph Norman (Rep-R South Carolina). It was the group’s largest expenditure of the year and its first significant independent spend of the cycle. Graham led the Aug. 11 primary with 33% to Norman’s 25%, but neither won a majority.
California Supreme Court heard challenge to Sheriff Chad Bianco’s seizure of 650,000 ballots
LOS ANGELES TIMES
LOS ANGELES TIMES: California Supreme Court heard challenge to Sheriff Chad Bianco’s seizure of 650,000 ballots

The California Supreme Court heard arguments over whether Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco must return roughly 650,000 ballots and 1,000 boxes seized while he was running for governor. Bianco says he was investigating fraud after a measure passed by about 80,000 votes; the state says he had no authority to take the ballots.

Elections22 races

The midterms · 70 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 89%, Kalshi 86%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 50%, Kalshi 47%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 85.5–88.5%

89%86%chance Democrats take it · 3.0pp apart · both venues up this week

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 89% and Kalshi 86%.

U.S. Senate — Republicans retain it, 50.5–53.5%

50%47%chance Democrats take it · 3.0pp apart · both venues down this week

U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 50% and Kalshi 47%.

No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only

Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.

two venues, priced separately
shaded = how far apart they are
50% — control flips here
where it stood 7 days ago
the last 7 days, on its own scale
week panel: one line a party

The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.

Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.

The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 3.0pp gap / 3.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.

Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”

Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

PolymarketU.S. House · todayWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Democratic control89%

Republican, implied11%

volume$5.5M

7-day move+1.0pp

KalshiU.S. House · todayWill Democrats win the House in 2026?

Democratic control86%

Republican, implied14%

volume9.6M contracts

bid / ask85% / 86%

7-day move+0.5pp

PolymarketU.S. Senate · todayWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Democratic control50%

Republican, implied50%

volume$2.4M

7-day move-1.0pp

KalshiU.S. Senate · todayWill Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?

Democratic control47%

Republican, implied53%

volume3.2M contracts

bid / ask46% / 47%

7-day move-2.5pp

Probability that Democrats control each chamber, as each venue prices it, by day.
Day	U.S. House · Polymarket	U.S. House · Kalshi	U.S. Senate · Polymarket	U.S. Senate · Kalshi
7 days ago	88%	85%	51%	49%
6 days ago	88%	86%	51%	48%
5 days ago	88%	85%	51%	46%
4 days ago	89%	85%	51%	46%
3 days ago	89%	85%	50%	47%
2 days ago	89%	85%	50%	46%
yesterday	89%	85%	50%	46%
today	89%	86%	50%	47%

3 closest races

hTexas SenateKen Paxton 50.5%▲0.5James Talarico 49.5%

POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

Ken Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D).

A dead heat — the two sides are priced within a point of each other.

Two markets, one question

Texas Senate

Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Texas Senate. Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 51.5%; James Talarico (D): Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 49.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Ken Paxton 51% · James Talarico 50%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Ken Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$503K49.5%

Kalshi5.4M contracts · 51%/52%51.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

James Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$418K51.5%

Kalshi4.1M contracts · 49%/50%49.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move-2.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT.
Day	Ken Paxton · Polymarket	Ken Paxton · Kalshi	James Talarico · Polymarket	James Talarico · Kalshi
7 days ago	49.5%	51.0%	51.5%	49.0%
6 days ago	49.5%	52.0%	51.5%	50.0%
5 days ago	48.5%	51.0%	51.5%	50.0%
4 days ago	48.5%	52.0%	51.5%	50.0%
3 days ago	48.5%	52.0%	50.5%	49.0%
2 days ago	49.5%	55.0%	49.5%	48.0%
yesterday	49.5%	53.0%	49.5%	47.0%
today	49.5%	51.5%	49.5%	49.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

lOhio SenateSherrod Brown 53.0%▲0.7Jon Husted 47.5%

POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Ohio Senate

Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 51.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 46.5%, Kalshi 48.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 52% · Jon Husted 48%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$108K52.5%

Kalshi821K contracts · 51%/52%52.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move+2.0pp

Jon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$76.6K47.5%

Kalshi1.4M contracts · 48%/49%49.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT.
Day	Sherrod Brown · Polymarket	Sherrod Brown · Kalshi	Jon Husted · Polymarket	Jon Husted · Kalshi
7 days ago	52.5%	52.0%	47.5%	49.0%
6 days ago	53.5%	52.0%	47.5%	49.0%
5 days ago	53.5%	52.0%	47.5%	49.0%
4 days ago	53.5%	52.0%	47.5%	49.0%
3 days ago	53.5%	52.0%	47.5%	49.0%
2 days ago	54.5%	52.0%	46.5%	49.0%
yesterday	54.5%	51.0%	46.5%	49.0%
today	54.5%	51.5%	46.5%	48.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

fOhio governorAmy Acton 55.0%▲4.7Vivek Ramaswamy 46.5%

POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead after gaining about five points in a week.

Two markets, one question

Ohio governor

Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 47.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Amy Acton 56% · Vivek Ramaswamy 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$77.0K48%

Kalshi670K contracts · 56%/57%51%

venue gap3.0pp

7-day move+5.5pp

Vivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$94.5K48.5%

Kalshi646K contracts · 45%/46%49.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT.
Day	Amy Acton · Polymarket	Amy Acton · Kalshi	Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket	Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi
7 days ago	48.0%	51.0%	48.5%	49.0%
6 days ago	49.5%	51.0%	48.5%	49.0%
5 days ago	49.0%	51.0%	49.5%	48.0%
4 days ago	49.5%	51.0%	49.5%	52.0%
3 days ago	50.5%	51.0%	49.5%	50.0%
2 days ago	51.5%	52.0%	47.5%	49.0%
yesterday	53.5%	52.0%	47.5%	49.0%
today	53.5%	56.5%	47.5%	45.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 14 still in doubt · Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate8 of 10

iAlaska SenateMary Peltola 61.8%▲6.0Dan Sullivan 39.8%

POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a clear lead after gaining about six points in a week.

Two markets, one question

Alaska Senate

Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 63.0%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 39.0%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 61% · Dan Sullivan 40%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Mary Peltola (D)7 days ago

Polymarket$234K55%

Kalshi70.0K contracts · 62%/64%56%

venue gap1.0pp

7-day move+5.5pp

Dan Sullivan (R)7 days ago

Polymarket$131K44.5%

Kalshi67.6K contracts · 40%/41%47.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move-5.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT.
Day	Mary Peltola · Polymarket	Mary Peltola · Kalshi	Dan Sullivan · Polymarket	Dan Sullivan · Kalshi
7 days ago	55.0%	56%	44.5%	47.0%
6 days ago	56.5%	56%	43.5%	48.0%
5 days ago	56.5%	57%	43.5%	47.0%
4 days ago	56.5%	57%	43.0%	44.0%
3 days ago	61.5%	61%	39.5%	44.0%
2 days ago	61.5%	62%	39.0%	42.0%
yesterday	60.5%	61%	39.0%	42.0%
today	60.5%	63%	39.0%	40.5%

qGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 92.58%Collins 7.55%

POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Georgia Senate

Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.8pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.50%, Kalshi 91.65%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 6.95%, Kalshi 8.15%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.8pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 92% · Mike Collins 8.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$45.2K93.5%

Kalshi345K contracts · 92%/92%92.3%

venue gap1.2pp

7-day move0.0pp

Mike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$72.6K5.55%

Kalshi800K contracts · 7.8%/8.5%8.40%

venue gap2.9pp

7-day move+1.4pp

Every sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT.
Day	Jon Ossoff · Polymarket	Jon Ossoff · Kalshi	Mike Collins · Polymarket	Mike Collins · Kalshi
7 days ago	93.5%	92.30%	5.55%	8.40%
6 days ago	93.0%	92.30%	7.30%	8.50%
5 days ago	93.0%	92.40%	7.45%	8.30%
4 days ago	92.5%	92.70%	7.40%	8.00%
3 days ago	93.5%	92.30%	6.90%	7.90%
2 days ago	93.5%	92.10%	6.95%	8.50%
yesterday	93.5%	91.50%	6.95%	7.80%
today	93.5%	91.65%	6.95%	8.15%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

jIowa SenateAshley Hinson 59.0%Josh Turek 42.0%

POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Iowa Senate

Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 58% · Josh Turek 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$108K60%

Kalshi909K contracts · 57%/58%57%

venue gap3.0pp

7-day move+0.5pp

Josh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$105K40%

Kalshi846K contracts · 43%/44%43%

venue gap3.0pp

7-day move+0.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT.
Day	Ashley Hinson · Polymarket	Ashley Hinson · Kalshi	Josh Turek · Polymarket	Josh Turek · Kalshi
7 days ago	60.0%	57.0%	40.0%	43.0%
6 days ago	60.5%	59.0%	40.0%	42.0%
5 days ago	60.5%	60.0%	40.5%	42.0%
4 days ago	60.5%	59.0%	40.5%	41.0%
3 days ago	60.5%	60.0%	40.5%	42.0%
2 days ago	60.5%	61.0%	40.5%	42.0%
yesterday	60.5%	59.0%	40.5%	42.0%
today	60.5%	57.5%	40.5%	43.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

gMaine SenateTroy Jackson 69.5%▲1.7Susan Collins 31.5%

POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Maine Senate

Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 32.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 69% · Susan Collins 32%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$728K69.5%

Kalshi1.9M contracts · 68%/69%66.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Susan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$493K30.5%

Kalshi2.2M contracts · 32%/33%36.0%

venue gap5.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT.
Day	Troy Jackson · Polymarket	Troy Jackson · Kalshi	Susan Collins · Polymarket	Susan Collins · Kalshi
7 days ago	69.5%	66.0%	30.5%	36.0%
6 days ago	69.5%	66.0%	30.5%	35.0%
5 days ago	69.5%	66.0%	30.5%	35.0%
4 days ago	70.5%	66.0%	30.5%	35.0%
3 days ago	70.5%	66.0%	30.5%	35.0%
2 days ago	70.5%	69.0%	30.0%	32.0%
yesterday	70.5%	68.0%	30.5%	33.0%
today	70.5%	68.5%	30.5%	32.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

kMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 60.3%▲0.5Mike Rogers 40.3%

POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

The Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Michigan Senate

Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 61.0%, Kalshi 59.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 39.0%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 60% · Mike Rogers 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$322K61.5%

Kalshi1.1M contracts · 59%/60%58.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move-0.5pp

Mike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$271K38.5%

Kalshi1.3M contracts · 41%/42%43.0%

venue gap4.5pp

7-day move+0.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT.
Day	Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket	Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi	Mike Rogers · Polymarket	Mike Rogers · Kalshi
7 days ago	61.5%	58.0%	38.5%	43.0%
6 days ago	64.5%	56.0%	37.5%	43.0%
5 days ago	64.5%	62.0%	36.5%	39.0%
4 days ago	63.0%	63.0%	36.5%	39.0%
3 days ago	63.0%	62.0%	38.0%	38.0%
2 days ago	60.5%	61.0%	40.5%	40.0%
yesterday	61.0%	61.0%	39.0%	41.0%
today	61.0%	59.5%	39.0%	41.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

rNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 70.0%▲1.3Osborn 29.5%

POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Nebraska Senate

Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 70.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 28.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 70% · Dan Osborn 29%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$89.3K71.5%

Kalshi249K contracts · 70%/71%71.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move-2.0pp

Dan Osborn (I)7 days ago

Polymarket$26.3K28.5%

Kalshi360K contracts · 28%/29%29.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move+2.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT.
Day	Pete Ricketts · Polymarket	Pete Ricketts · Kalshi	Dan Osborn · Polymarket	Dan Osborn · Kalshi
7 days ago	71.5%	71.0%	28.5%	29.0%
6 days ago	70.5%	71.0%	27.5%	29.0%
5 days ago	70.5%	71.0%	28.5%	28.0%
4 days ago	70.5%	72.0%	28.5%	30.0%
3 days ago	70.5%	71.0%	28.5%	30.0%
2 days ago	69.5%	71.0%	30.5%	30.0%
yesterday	69.5%	71.0%	30.5%	28.0%
today	69.5%	70.5%	30.5%	28.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

sNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 89.8%▲3.210.8%Sununu

POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

Chris Pappas (D) leads the unresolved Democratic primary; John E. Sununu (R) leads the unresolved Republican primary.

Neither nomination is official yet, though the market already treats both as decided — the Democratic side gained about three points in a week.

General election wintwo venues

Chris Pappas^* (D)party contract89.5%90.0%0.5pp apart

The whole field

New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary

Every candidate the venue lists, replayed across the window it has priced. Bars are linear, so a 0.05% long shot is a hairline — that is what the market thinks of them.

Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
6 candidates listed

New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary on today, priced by Kalshi: Chris Pappas 97%, Karishma Manzur 3.4%, Maggie Goodlander 1.0%, Stefany Shaheen 1.0%, Annie Kuster 0.4%, Jared Sullivan 0.4%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

Chris Pappas97%

Karishma Manzur3.4%

Maggie Goodlander1.0%

Stefany Shaheen1.0%

Annie Kuster0.4%

Jared Sullivan0.4%

Daytoday

Biggest moves over the window (Kalshi): Karishma Manzur -2.5pp · Chris Pappas +0.0pp · leading on today: Chris Pappas at 97%.

A candidate with no sample on the selected day is shown as not priced and dropped to the bottom rather than carried forward from an earlier day. Venues list candidates on different dates, so the field genuinely grows and shrinks across the window.

New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary — Kalshiprice by day, plus the other venue’s price today.
Candidate	6 days ago	5 days ago	4 days ago	3 days ago	2 days ago	yesterday	today	Other venue, today	Volume
Chris Pappas	—	—	97%	97%	96%	96%	97%	—	26.2K contracts
Karishma Manzur	5.9%	7.0%	4.0%	2.2%	4.5%	4.0%	3.4%	—	34.1K contracts
Maggie Goodlander	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.0%	—	33 contracts
Stefany Shaheen	—	—	—	—	—	1.0%	1.0%	—	209 contracts
Annie Kuster	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.4%	—	102 contracts
Jared Sullivan	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.4%	—	3 contracts

No 7-day series from Kalshi for Maggie Goodlander, Annie Kuster, Jared Sullivan— they only appear at “today”.

New Hampshire Democratic Senate primaryNomination odds · Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT

Chris Pappas (D)97%+0.0pp

Karishma Manzur (D)3.4%-2.5pp

Maggie Goodlander (D)1.0%7D —

Stefany Shaheen (D)1.0%0pp

Annie Kuster (D)0.4%7D —

Jared Sullivan (D)0.4%7D —

John E. Sununu^* (R)party contract10.0%11.5%1.5pp apart

The whole field

New Hampshire Republican Senate primary

Every candidate the venue lists, replayed across the window it has priced. Bars are linear, so a 0.05% long shot is a hairline — that is what the market thinks of them.

Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
4 candidates listed

New Hampshire Republican Senate primary on today, priced by Kalshi: John E. Sununu 96%, Scott Brown 2.9%, Dan Innis 1.0%, Chris Sununu 0.9%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

John E. Sununu96%

Scott Brown2.9%

Dan Innis1.0%

Chris Sununu0.9%

Daytoday

Biggest moves over the window (Kalshi): John E. Sununu -3.2pp · Scott Brown -2.6pp · leading on today: John E. Sununu at 96%.

New Hampshire Republican Senate primary — Kalshiprice by day, plus the other venue’s price today.
Candidate	3 days ago	2 days ago	yesterday	today	Other venue, today	Volume
John E. Sununu	—	99%	99%	96%	—	12.7K contracts
Scott Brown	5.5%	5.0%	3.0%	2.9%	—	21.6K contracts
Dan Innis	—	—	—	1.0%	—	37 contracts
Chris Sununu	—	—	1.4%	0.9%	—	22.7K contracts

No 7-day series from Kalshi for Dan Innis— they only appear at “today”.

New Hampshire Republican Senate primaryNomination odds · Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT

John E. Sununu (R)96%-3.2pp

Scott Brown (R)2.9%-2.6pp

Dan Innis (R)1.0%7D —

Chris Sununu (R)0.9%-0.5pp

* Current primary leader; nomination not settled. General-election odds above may price the party rather than the person.

Two markets, one question

New Hampshire Senate

Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 89.5%, Kalshi 90.0%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 10.0%, Kalshi 11.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 90% · John E. Sununu 11%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Chris Pappas (D)*7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$50.5K85.5%

Kalshi72.0K contracts · 89%/91%88.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move+4.0pp

John E. Sununu (R)*7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$23.4K15%

Kalshi110K contracts · 10%/13%13%

venue gap2.0pp

7-day move-5.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT.
Day	Chris Pappas · Polymarket	Chris Pappas · Kalshi	John E. Sununu · Polymarket	John E. Sununu · Kalshi
7 days ago	85.5%	88.0%	15.0%	13.0%
6 days ago	86.5%	87.0%	14.5%	12.0%
5 days ago	87.5%	87.0%	12.5%	13.0%
4 days ago	89.5%	87.0%	10.5%	12.0%
3 days ago	89.5%	87.0%	10.0%	12.0%
2 days ago	89.5%	90.9%	10.0%	12.0%
yesterday	89.5%	90.9%	10.0%	11.0%
today	89.5%	90.0%	10.0%	11.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

pNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 92.13%Whatley 8.43%

POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

North Carolina Senate

Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.8pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 92.50%, Kalshi 91.75%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.50%, Kalshi 8.35%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.8pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 92% · Michael Whatley 8.4%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$39.7K93.5%

Kalshi1.2M contracts · 91%/92%92.6%

venue gap0.9pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Michael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$58.9K7.5%

Kalshi357K contracts · 8.0%/8.7%8.2%

venue gap0.7pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT.
Day	Roy Cooper · Polymarket	Roy Cooper · Kalshi	Michael Whatley · Polymarket	Michael Whatley · Kalshi
7 days ago	93.5%	92.60%	7.5%	8.20%
6 days ago	91.5%	92.80%	7.5%	8.30%
5 days ago	91.5%	93.20%	8.5%	8.30%
4 days ago	91.5%	92.90%	9.0%	7.40%
3 days ago	92.0%	92.10%	9.0%	8.70%
2 days ago	92.5%	92.00%	8.5%	8.70%
yesterday	92.5%	92.20%	8.5%	8.70%
today	92.5%	91.75%	8.5%	8.35%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors11 of 12

uAlaska governor35.3%▲10.5Begich 19.0%45.7%Wilson

POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

Wilson holds a clear lead, but no race here has moved more this week: Begich is down about eighteen points.

Two markets, one question

Alaska governor

Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 35.0%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 18.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 35% · Tom Begich 19%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days ago

Polymarket$167K27.5%

Kalshi35.5K contracts · 34%/36%22.0%

venue gap5.5pp

7-day move+8.0pp

Tom Begich (D)7 days ago

Polymarket$149K25%

Kalshi111K contracts · 18%/19%49%

venue gap24pp

7-day move-5.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT.
Day	Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket	Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi	Tom Begich · Polymarket	Tom Begich · Kalshi
7 days ago	27.5%	22%	25.0%	49.0%
6 days ago	35.5%	16%	19.0%	50.0%
5 days ago	36.5%	22%	18.0%	25.0%
4 days ago	35.5%	38%	19.0%	22.0%
3 days ago	35.5%	40%	19.0%	19.0%
2 days ago	35.5%	38%	20.0%	18.0%
yesterday	35.5%	38%	19.5%	21.0%
today	35.5%	35%	19.5%	18.5%

wArizona governorKatie Hobbs 87.5%▲1.512.3%Biggs

POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Arizona governor

Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.5%, Kalshi 87.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 11.0%, Kalshi 13.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 88% · Andy Biggs 13%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$31.0K87.5%

Kalshi296K contracts · 87%/88%88.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Andy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$36.1K12.5%

Kalshi223K contracts · 13%/14%16.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move-1.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT.
Day	Katie Hobbs · Polymarket	Katie Hobbs · Kalshi	Andy Biggs · Polymarket	Andy Biggs · Kalshi
7 days ago	87.5%	88.0%	12.5%	16.0%
6 days ago	87.5%	84.0%	13.0%	16.0%
5 days ago	87.5%	87.0%	13.0%	16.0%
4 days ago	87.5%	88.0%	12.5%	14.0%
3 days ago	87.5%	89.0%	13.0%	15.0%
2 days ago	87.5%	86.0%	11.5%	13.0%
yesterday	87.5%	87.0%	11.5%	12.0%
today	87.5%	87.5%	11.0%	13.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

aaFlorida governorByron Donalds 79.5%▲2.221.5%Jolly

POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

Two markets, one question

Florida governor

Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 78.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 22.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 80% · David Jolly 21%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$26.1K82.5%

Kalshi153K contracts · 80%/81%81.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-4.0pp

David Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$30.4K17.5%

Kalshi188K contracts · 20%/21%21.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move+5.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT.
Day	Byron Donalds · Polymarket	Byron Donalds · Kalshi	David Jolly · Polymarket	David Jolly · Kalshi
7 days ago	82.5%	81.0%	17.5%	21.0%
6 days ago	82.5%	81.0%	17.5%	22.0%
5 days ago	81.0%	82.0%	19.5%	21.0%
4 days ago	81.0%	82.0%	19.5%	20.0%
3 days ago	81.5%	81.0%	19.0%	19.0%
2 days ago	79.0%	81.0%	22.0%	21.0%
yesterday	78.5%	81.0%	22.5%	21.0%
today	78.5%	80.5%	22.5%	20.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

nGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 59.3%▲0.2Rick Jackson 40.8%

POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Georgia governor

Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 60.0%, Kalshi 58.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 41.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 59% · Rick Jackson 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$31.0K60%

Kalshi266K contracts · 58%/59%60%

venue gap0.0pp

7-day move0.0pp

Rick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$36.3K41%

Kalshi344K contracts · 40%/42%42%

venue gap1.0pp

7-day move-0.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT.
Day	Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket	Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi	Rick Jackson · Polymarket	Rick Jackson · Kalshi
7 days ago	60.0%	60.0%	41.0%	42%
6 days ago	59.5%	61.0%	40.0%	42%
5 days ago	59.5%	62.0%	41.5%	42%
4 days ago	60.0%	60.0%	40.5%	43%
3 days ago	60.0%	60.0%	40.5%	42%
2 days ago	60.0%	59.0%	40.5%	42%
yesterday	60.0%	60.0%	40.5%	42%
today	60.0%	58.5%	40.5%	41%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

tIowa governorRob Sand 75.3%▲0.4Lahn 25.0%

POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

Two markets, one question

Iowa governor

Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 74.0%, Kalshi 76.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Rob Sand 76% · Zach Lahn 24%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$29.7K77.5%

Kalshi225K contracts · 76%/77%75.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move-3.5pp

Zach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$41.6K23.5%

Kalshi247K contracts · 23%/24%26.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move+3.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT.
Day	Rob Sand · Polymarket	Rob Sand · Kalshi	Zach Lahn · Polymarket	Zach Lahn · Kalshi
7 days ago	77.5%	75.0%	23.5%	26.0%
6 days ago	73.5%	78.0%	25.5%	24.0%
5 days ago	74.5%	77.0%	26.5%	23.0%
4 days ago	73.5%	77.0%	26.0%	25.0%
3 days ago	73.5%	78.0%	25.5%	25.0%
2 days ago	74.5%	78.0%	26.5%	24.0%
yesterday	74.0%	78.0%	26.5%	23.0%
today	74.0%	76.5%	26.5%	23.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

vMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 89.0%▲1.911.3%James

POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Michigan governor

Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 90%, Kalshi 88%; John James (R): Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 12.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.

Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 89% · John James 11%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$48.3K88%

Kalshi71.9K contracts · 87%/89%—

venue gap—

7-day move+2.0pp

John James (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$152K12.5%

Kalshi116K contracts · 11%/13%14.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-2.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT.
Day	Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket	Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi	John James · Polymarket	John James · Kalshi
7 days ago	88.0%	—	12.5%	14%
6 days ago	87.5%	88%	12.5%	15%
5 days ago	87.5%	88%	13.0%	14%
4 days ago	89.0%	85%	11.0%	14%
3 days ago	90.5%	87%	10.5%	14%
2 days ago	90.5%	87%	10.0%	13%
yesterday	90.0%	87%	10.5%	14%
today	90.0%	88%	10.5%	12%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

oNevada governorJoe Lombardo 59.0%▲2.2Aaron Ford 41.3%

POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).

Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a clear lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

Two markets, one question

Nevada governor

Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 58.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 41.0%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 59% · Aaron Ford 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$49.0K55.5%

Kalshi222K contracts · 58%/59%59.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move+4.0pp

Aaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$22.2K43.5%

Kalshi462K contracts · 41%/42%—

venue gap—

7-day move-2.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT.
Day	Joe Lombardo · Polymarket	Joe Lombardo · Kalshi	Aaron Ford · Polymarket	Aaron Ford · Kalshi
7 days ago	55.5%	59.0%	43.5%	—
6 days ago	55.5%	61.0%	45.0%	44.0%
5 days ago	59.5%	59.0%	40.5%	40.0%
4 days ago	59.5%	58.0%	41.0%	45.0%
3 days ago	59.5%	59.0%	41.0%	42.0%
2 days ago	59.5%	60.0%	41.0%	42.0%
yesterday	59.5%	61.0%	41.0%	42.0%
today	59.5%	58.5%	41.0%	41.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

yNew York governorKathy Hochul 94.50%▲1.2Blakeman 5.17%

POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

New York governor

Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.3pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.5%, Kalshi 94.5%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.50%, Kalshi 5.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 94% · Bruce Blakeman 5.7%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$49.2K94.5%

Kalshi252K contracts · 94%/95%93.3%

venue gap1.2pp

7-day move0.0pp

Bruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$55.2K5.5%

Kalshi623K contracts · 5.5%/6.2%8.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT.
Day	Kathy Hochul · Polymarket	Kathy Hochul · Kalshi	Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket	Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi
7 days ago	94.5%	93.3%	5.5%	8.00%
6 days ago	94.5%	95.1%	4.5%	5.60%
5 days ago	94.5%	95.4%	4.5%	5.80%
4 days ago	94.5%	95.2%	4.5%	5.60%
3 days ago	94.5%	94.6%	5.5%	6.10%
2 days ago	94.5%	94.8%	4.5%	5.70%
yesterday	94.5%	94.7%	4.5%	6.70%
today	94.5%	94.5%	4.5%	5.85%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

zPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 95.83%▲0.2Garrity 4.47%

POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Pennsylvania governor

Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.7pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 95.50%, Kalshi 96.15%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 4.50%, Kalshi 4.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.7pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 5–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.

Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 96% · Stacy Garrity 4.5%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$7.3K95.5%

Kalshi68.1K contracts · 96%/96%—

venue gap—

7-day move0.0pp

Stacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$24.0K5.5%

Kalshi372K contracts · 3.6%/5.3%—

venue gap—

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT.
Day	Josh Shapiro · Polymarket	Josh Shapiro · Kalshi	Stacy Garrity · Polymarket	Stacy Garrity · Kalshi
7 days ago	95.5%	—	5.5%	—
6 days ago	95.5%	—	5.5%	—
5 days ago	95.5%	95.50%	4.5%	—
4 days ago	95.5%	95.60%	4.5%	4.00%
3 days ago	95.5%	97.00%	4.5%	2.40%
2 days ago	95.5%	97.80%	4.5%	5.50%
yesterday	95.5%	96.30%	4.5%	3.30%
today	95.5%	96.15%	4.5%	4.45%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

xTexas governorGreg Abbott 87.0%▲1.112.5%Hinojosa

POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Texas governor

Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 86.5%, Kalshi 87.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 87% · Gina Hinojosa 13%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$26.0K85.7%

Kalshi136K contracts · 87%/88%88.0%

venue gap2.3pp

7-day move+0.8pp

Gina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$32.8K14.5%

Kalshi553K contracts · 12%/13%14.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move-2.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT.
Day	Greg Abbott · Polymarket	Greg Abbott · Kalshi	Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket	Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi
7 days ago	85.70%	88.0%	14.5%	14.0%
6 days ago	87.75%	86.0%	12.5%	16.0%
5 days ago	88.60%	90.0%	11.0%	11.0%
4 days ago	87.40%	89.0%	12.5%	12.0%
3 days ago	87.45%	89.0%	12.5%	11.0%
2 days ago	87.80%	87.0%	12.5%	14.0%
yesterday	86.50%	88.0%	12.5%	15.0%
today	86.50%	87.5%	12.5%	12.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

mWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 79.5%▲4.0Tiffany 20.5%

POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Wisconsin governor

Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 78.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: David Crowley 79% · Tom Tiffany 21%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$250K77.5%

Kalshi430K contracts · 78%/79%75.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move+3.0pp

Tom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$239K23.5%

Kalshi453K contracts · 21%/22%26.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move-4.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT.
Day	David Crowley · Polymarket	David Crowley · Kalshi	Tom Tiffany · Polymarket	Tom Tiffany · Kalshi
7 days ago	77.5%	75.0%	23.5%	26.0%
6 days ago	77.5%	75.0%	23.5%	26.0%
5 days ago	81.5%	74.0%	19.5%	25.0%
4 days ago	78.5%	76.0%	19.5%	25.0%
3 days ago	80.5%	77.0%	19.5%	23.0%
2 days ago	80.5%	79.0%	19.5%	22.0%
yesterday	80.5%	80.0%	19.5%	22.0%
today	80.5%	78.5%	19.5%	21.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Aug 252026

Executive summary4 stories

News news4

News news4 stories

Treasury’s “Operation Economic Outcast,” announced Monday, Aug. 24, puts China and other Iranian trading partners at risk of U.S. penalties—but sets no deadline.

Canada will answer with matching tariffs on $20 billion of U.S. goods on Sept. 8 after trade talks collapsed.

The employer charge would rise from $2,000-$5,000 today to at least 20 times that amount.

Another 45,000 people were told to prepare to leave as the 15,000-acre fire reached 27% containment Monday, Aug. 24.

Quick bites3

ICE detained deployed Navy sailor’s father after roughly 20 years in US

ICE arrested 1,328 near Washington; about 70% had no convictions or pending charges

House Democrats say Iran war has passed 150 days and $37 billion

MAGA Inc. spends $827,711 to boost Darline Graham before runoff

California Supreme Court heard challenge to Sheriff Chad Bianco’s seizure of 650,000 ballots

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