News news3 stories
Ongoing4 earlier updates4 days
This story has run 5 times over 4 days, starting Aug 26.
- CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
- CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
- CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
- UpdateCIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen
- Russian drone hits ammunition depot near Kyiv, killing 38; four remain missing — this issue
The toll rose from 37 on Saturday to 38 on Sunday; 20 people were injured, including two children.
Related reading
Ukraine says Russia is planning attacks toward Kyiv and Chernihiv, but no new assault force has formed. Presidential aide Pavlo Palisa told reporters that intelligence from several sources indicated Russian offensive planning. He said Ukraine had prepared defensive responses, but had not detected a new offensive grouping in either direction. Planning is not evidence that an assault has begun.
The next decision is in mid-September; July’s 9–3 vote kept rates at 3.5%–3.75%.
The reported mutiny targeted the military government that seized power in July 2023.
Quick bites6
DHS deported Milo Yiannopoulos to Britain after ICE said he overstayed his visa.
NPR VIA GPBUpdateVisa crackdownDHS told NPR he was deported Friday, a day after ICE arrested him. ICE said an immigration judge ordered his removal July 22 after he missed a hearing. He had publicly urged the deportation of millions of people.
Former White House teleprompter operator must repay $107,539 and pay a $65,000 fine for betting with advance speech text.
CFTCPrediction marketsThe CFTC said Gabriel Perez used confidential drafts to bet on words Trump would say between December 2025 and February 2026. The order also bans him from trading for three years; his cooperation reduced the civil penalty.
U.S. deported 12 Afghans to the Central African Republic, including a man protected from return to Afghanistan, advocates say.
AP VIA HAWAII PUBLIC RADIOThird-country removalsHis lawyer said his brothers had worked with the U.S. military and that a judge protected him from return to Afghanistan because he feared Taliban persecution. AP reported that Saturday’s flight was the second U.S. deportation flight to the Central African Republic since June. The protection order barred his return to Afghanistan; U.S. authorities instead sent him to the Central African Republic.
Appeals court set aside Georgia’s voting-map ruling and ordered a new review under stricter racial-discrimination rules.
11TH CIRCUIT OPINIONThe 11th Circuit’s Aug. 25 decision did not declare Georgia’s maps lawful. It sent the case back after the Supreme Court changed the Voting Rights Act test: challengers must support a strong inference of intentional racial discrimination and separate racial effects from partisan choices.
Walmart will pay $50 million to settle federal claims that its pharmacies filled invalid opioid prescriptions.
JUSTICE DEPARTMENTThe Justice Department said the agreement also requires a reporting hotline, monitoring of pharmacy dispensing and review of suspect prescribers. The settlement resolves allegations, not a finding of liability; the lawsuit was filed in 2020.
Gang in Haiti frees six children and seven women kidnapped in Kenscoff, UNICEF says.
UNICEFKenscoff is a hillside community near Port-au-Prince, Haiti’s capital. AP reported that more than 50 people were abducted in the Aug. 23 attack. UNICEF said local leaders helped secure the releases; three of the freed children were under two.
Elections22 races
The midterms · 65 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 90%, Kalshi 85%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 51%, Kalshi 49%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 5.0pp gap / 2.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 89% | 85% | 50% | 46% |
| 6 days ago | 89% | 86% | 50% | 46% |
| 5 days ago | 88% | 86% | 50% | 48% |
| 4 days ago | 88% | 85% | 51% | 49% |
| 3 days ago | 89% | 84% | 51% | 48% |
| 2 days ago | 89% | 84% | 51% | 48% |
| yesterday | 89% | 84% | 51% | 48% |
| today | 90% | 85% | 51% | 49% |
3 closest races
iTexas Senate
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
Ken Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D).
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate
Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 50.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 50.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: James Talarico 50% · Ken Paxton 50%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
James Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$442K50.5%Kalshi4.3M contracts · 50%/51%47.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move-1.0ppKen Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$524K48.5%Kalshi5.7M contracts · 50%/51%53.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT. Day James Talarico · Polymarket James Talarico · Kalshi Ken Paxton · Polymarket Ken Paxton · Kalshi 7 days ago 50.5% 47.0% 48.5% 53.0% 6 days ago 49.5% 50.0% 49.5% 52.0% 5 days ago 49.5% 52.0% 48.5% 49.0% 4 days ago 49.5% 49.0% 48.5% 51.0% 3 days ago 49.5% 49.0% 48.5% 51.0% 2 days ago 49.5% 50.0% 48.5% 51.0% yesterday 49.5% 50.0% 49.5% 50.0% today 49.5% 50.5% 49.5% 50.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
mOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 54% · Jon Husted 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$110K53.5%Kalshi1.0M contracts · 54%/55%51.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+1.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$78.0K47.5%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 45%/46%49.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 53.5% 51.0% 47.5% 49.0% 6 days ago 54.5% 52.0% 46.5% 49.0% 5 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 46.5% 47.0% 4 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.0% 47.0% 3 days ago 55.5% 54.0% 45.0% 47.0% 2 days ago 55.5% 55.0% 45.5% 47.0% yesterday 54.5% 56.0% 45.5% 46.0% today 54.5% 54.5% 45.5% 45.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
gOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 56% · Vivek Ramaswamy 44%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$79.3K50.5%Kalshi692K contracts · 56%/57%52.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+3.0ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$95.0K49.5%Kalshi723K contracts · 43%/44%49.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-4.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 50.5% 52.0% 49.5% 49.0% 6 days ago 51.5% 56.0% 47.5% 45.0% 5 days ago 54.5% 57.0% 45.5% 44.0% 4 days ago 54.5% 57.0% 45.5% 47.0% 3 days ago 53.5% 56.0% 46.5% 45.0% 2 days ago 54.5% 56.0% 46.5% 44.0% yesterday 53.5% 57.0% 45.5% 44.0% today 53.5% 56.5% 45.5% 43.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 19 races
Senate8 of 10
jAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 65%, Kalshi 64%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 65% · Dan Sullivan 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$237K61.5%Kalshi73.5K contracts · 63%/65%61.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+3.5ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$135K39.5%Kalshi71.6K contracts · 36%/37%42.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-4.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 61.5% 61% 39.5% 42.0% 6 days ago 61.5% 63% 39.0% 40.0% 5 days ago 61.0% 64% 38.5% 38.0% 4 days ago 61.5% 64% 38.5% 41.0% 3 days ago 64.5% 65% 36.5% 39.0% 2 days ago 66.5% 64% 34.5% 39.0% yesterday 65.0% 63% 35.5% 36.0% today 65.0% 64% 35.5% 36.5% rGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.2pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.50%, Kalshi 92.45%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 6.35%, Kalshi 7.60%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 93% · Mike Collins 7.5%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$48.4K93.5%Kalshi348K contracts · 92%/93%91.5%venue gap2.0pp7-day move0.0ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$74.5K6.9%Kalshi812K contracts · 7.4%/7.8%7.8%venue gap0.9pp7-day move-0.6ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 93.5% 91.50% 6.90% 7.8% 6 days ago 93.5% 91.80% 6.95% 8.5% 5 days ago 93.5% 92.40% 6.95% 7.8% 4 days ago 93.5% 91.70% 6.10% 7.6% 3 days ago 93.5% 92.10% 6.05% 8.0% 2 days ago 93.5% 92.70% 6.35% 7.9% yesterday 93.5% 92.60% 6.35% 8.1% today 93.5% 92.45% 6.35% 7.6% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
kIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 61.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 38.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 61% · Josh Turek 40%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$109K60.5%Kalshi7.4K contracts · 60%/63%60.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$106K40.5%Kalshi8.9K contracts · 36%/40%—venue gap—7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 60.5% 60.0% 40.5% — 6 days ago 60.5% 58.0% 40.5% — 5 days ago 60.5% 58.0% 40.5% 44% 4 days ago 60.5% 60.0% 40.5% 43% 3 days ago 60.5% 60.0% 39.5% 39% 2 days ago 60.5% 63.0% 40.5% 44% yesterday 60.5% 61.0% 40.5% 40% today 60.5% 61.5% 40.5% 38% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
hMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 69.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 31.0%, Kalshi 30.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 70% · Susan Collins 31%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$732K70.5%Kalshi1.9M contracts · 69%/70%68.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-1.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$495K30.5%Kalshi2.6M contracts · 30%/31%33.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 70.5% 68.0% 30.5% 33.0% 6 days ago 70.5% 69.0% 30.0% 31.0% 5 days ago 70.5% 69.0% 30.0% 30.0% 4 days ago 70.5% 69.0% 30.5% 32.0% 3 days ago 69.5% 67.0% 30.5% 35.0% 2 days ago 69.5% 69.0% 31.5% 32.0% yesterday 69.5% 70.0% 31.5% 31.0% today 69.5% 69.5% 31.0% 30.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
lMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 64.5%, Kalshi 63.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 37.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 64% · Mike Rogers 37%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$330K63%Kalshi699K contracts · 63%/64%59%venue gap4.0pp7-day move+1.5ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$279K38%Kalshi759K contracts · 37%/38%41%venue gap3.0pp7-day move-2.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 63.0% 59.0% 38.0% 41.0% 6 days ago 60.5% 59.0% 40.5% 41.0% 5 days ago 61.5% 61.0% 38.5% 41.0% 4 days ago 63.0% 62.0% 37.5% 40.0% 3 days ago 64.5% 62.0% 35.5% 40.0% 2 days ago 64.5% 62.0% 35.5% 37.0% yesterday 64.5% 64.0% 35.5% 38.0% today 64.5% 63.5% 35.5% 37.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
sNebraska SenateRicketts vs. Osborn
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 69.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 70%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$90.8K70.5%Kalshi283K contracts · 69%/70%71.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi 7 days ago 70.5% 71.0% 6 days ago 69.5% 71.0% 5 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 4 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 3 days ago 70.5% 70.0% 2 days ago 70.5% 70.0% yesterday 70.5% 70.0% today 70.5% 69.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
tNew Hampshire Democratic Senate primaryNew Hampshire SenatePappas leads Democratic primary markets
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — Democratic primary
Chris Pappas (D) leads Karishma Manzur (D) in the nomination markets. The nomination remains unresolved; these are not general-election win odds. Current prices and the rest of the field are in the dated disclosure below.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary
Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.4pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 93.00%, Kalshi 94.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.4pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 94%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)*7 days agoPolymarket$47.3K95%Kalshi100K contracts · 94%/95%96%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary, snapshot Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi 7 days ago 95.00% 96.00% 6 days ago 95.35% 97.40% 5 days ago 96.15% 97.40% 4 days ago 95.65% 93.90% 3 days ago 92.65% 94.20% 2 days ago 92.90% 94.00% yesterday 94.25% 93.00% today 93.00% 94.45% qNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.3pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 91.5%, Kalshi 91.2%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 9.00%, Kalshi 8.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.3pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 91% · Michael Whatley 8.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$40.8K92.0%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 91%/91%92.2%venue gap0.2pp7-day move-0.5ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$59.7K9.0%Kalshi434K contracts · 8.3%/9.2%8.7%venue gap0.3pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 92.0% 92.2% 9.0% 8.70% 6 days ago 92.5% 91.1% 8.5% 8.70% 5 days ago 92.5% 92.8% 8.5% 8.10% 4 days ago 91.5% 91.8% 8.5% 8.40% 3 days ago 91.5% 91.5% 8.5% 7.80% 2 days ago 91.5% 92.3% 8.5% 8.80% yesterday 91.5% 91.1% 9.0% 9.80% today 91.5% 91.2% 9.0% 8.75% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors11 of 12
vAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.9pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 35.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.35%, Kalshi 0.50%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.9pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 36% · Tom Begich 0.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$167K35.5%Kalshi37.7K contracts · 35%/36%38.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppTom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$158K19%Kalshi226K contracts · 0.1%/0.9%21%venue gap2.0pp7-day move-18ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT. Day Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi 7 days ago 35.5% 38.0% 19.00% 21.0% 6 days ago 35.5% 36.0% 20.00% 19.0% 5 days ago 35.5% 36.0% 18.50% 18.0% 4 days ago 35.5% 35.0% 18.00% 18.0% 3 days ago 35.5% 36.0% 15.00% 14.0% 2 days ago 36.5% 37.0% 3.25% 1.0% yesterday 35.5% 36.0% 1.35% 0.1% today 35.5% 35.5% 1.35% 0.5% xArizona governorone book
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
one venue only- Kalshi, dashed
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Kalshi 87.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Kalshi 13.5%. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Every sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 87.0% 12.0% 6 days ago 89.0% 14.0% 5 days ago 89.0% 13.0% 4 days ago 88.0% 13.0% 3 days ago 88.0% 14.0% 2 days ago 89.0% 14.0% yesterday 88.0% 14.0% today 87.5% 13.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
abFlorida governorone book
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
one venue only- Kalshi, dashed
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Kalshi 83.5%; David Jolly (D): Kalshi 18%. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Every sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT. Day Byron Donalds · Kalshi David Jolly · Kalshi 7 days ago 81.0% 21% 6 days ago 81.0% 21% 5 days ago 81.0% 19% 4 days ago 82.0% 19% 3 days ago 83.0% 19% 2 days ago 83.0% 18% yesterday 84.0% 17% today 83.5% 18% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
oGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 59.0%, Kalshi 59.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 39.0%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 59% · Rick Jackson 40%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$32.4K60%Kalshi271K contracts · 59%/60%60%venue gap0.0pp7-day move-1.0ppRick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$36.8K40.5%Kalshi358K contracts · 40%/41%42.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT. Day Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi 7 days ago 60.0% 60.0% 40.5% 42.0% 6 days ago 60.0% 60.0% 40.5% 42.0% 5 days ago 60.5% 59.0% 40.0% 42.0% 4 days ago 61.0% 61.0% 40.0% 41.0% 3 days ago 59.0% 59.0% 40.0% 41.0% 2 days ago 59.0% 60.0% 40.0% 42.0% yesterday 59.0% 59.0% 39.5% 41.0% today 59.0% 59.5% 39.0% 40.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
uIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 74.5%, Kalshi 74.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 75% · Zach Lahn 26%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.0K73.5%Kalshi246K contracts · 74%/75%78.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move+1.0ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$43.7K25.5%Kalshi286K contracts · 26%/27%23.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 73.5% 78.0% 25.5% 23.0% 6 days ago 74.5% 77.0% 26.5% 24.0% 5 days ago 73.5% 76.0% 27.5% 26.0% 4 days ago 74.5% 76.0% 24.5% 26.0% 3 days ago 74.0% 75.0% 25.5% 27.0% 2 days ago 74.5% 75.0% 25.5% 27.0% yesterday 74.5% 74.0% 25.5% 26.0% today 74.5% 74.5% 25.5% 26.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
wMichigan governorone book
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
one venue only- Kalshi, dashed
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Kalshi 88.6%; John James (R): Kalshi 11.5%. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Every sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Kalshi 7 days ago — 14.0% 6 days ago — 13.0% 5 days ago 89.0% 13.0% 4 days ago 88.0% 12.0% 3 days ago 92.9% 12.0% 2 days ago 89.0% 15.0% yesterday 87.0% 10.0% today 88.6% 11.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
pNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 59.0%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 41%, Kalshi 41%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 59% · Aaron Ford 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$49.2K59.5%Kalshi226K contracts · 58%/60%61.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppAaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$22.2K41%Kalshi482K contracts · 40%/42%—venue gap—7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT. Day Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi 7 days ago 59.5% 61% 41.0% — 6 days ago 59.5% 59% 41.0% 42% 5 days ago 59.5% 59% 40.5% 42% 4 days ago 59.5% 61% 41.0% 42% 3 days ago 59.5% 61% 41.0% 41% 2 days ago 59.5% 60% 41.0% 40% yesterday 59.5% 60% 41.0% 42% today 59.5% 59% 41.0% 41% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
zNew York governorone book
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
one venue only- Kalshi, dashed
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Kalshi 94.25%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Kalshi 6.05%. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Every sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 94.70% 6.70% 6 days ago 94.70% 6.20% 5 days ago 94.50% 5.40% 4 days ago 94.60% 6.40% 3 days ago 94.10% 6.10% 2 days ago 94.30% 6.20% yesterday 94.10% 6.20% today 94.25% 6.05% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aaPennsylvania governorone book
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
one venue only- Kalshi, dashed
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Kalshi 97.2%; Stacy Garrity (R): Kalshi 3.6%. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 5–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Every sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago — 5.5% 6 days ago — 3.3% 5 days ago — 6.9% 4 days ago 97.8% 2.9% 3 days ago 96.3% 4.9% 2 days ago 96.0% 4.9% yesterday 97.7% 4.3% today 97.2% 3.6% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
yTexas governorone book
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
one venue only- Kalshi, dashed
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Kalshi 85.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Kalshi 15%. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Every sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 88.0% 15% 6 days ago 89.0% 13% 5 days ago 88.0% 13% 4 days ago 88.0% 13% 3 days ago 86.0% 15% 2 days ago 86.0% 16% yesterday 86.0% 16% today 85.5% 15% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
nWisconsin governorone book
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
one venue only- Kalshi, dashed
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Kalshi 79.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Kalshi 20.5%. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Every sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT. Day David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 80.0% 22.0% 6 days ago 78.0% 23.0% 5 days ago 79.0% 22.0% 4 days ago 80.0% 21.0% 3 days ago 78.0% 20.0% 2 days ago 80.0% 21.0% yesterday 79.0% 21.0% today 79.5% 20.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.