News news3 stories
The Labor Department also revised June and July up by a combined 55,000, flipping July from a reported loss of 23,000 jobs to a gain of 21,000.
The August employment report, released Friday, Sept. 4, showed employers adding 162,000 jobs — about triple the 53,000 to 56,000 economists had forecast. The unemployment rate came in at 4.1%, the same as July. Restaurants and bars accounted for 59,000 of the gain; local government education added 42,000; construction added 22,000 and manufacturing 16,000. Average hourly wages rose 3.1% from a year earlier, the weakest annual pace since May 2021. ([TS]July CPI — the consumer price index, the monthly measure of what households pay for goods and services, and the most recent published reading — was 3.4% year over year (Bureau of Labor Statistics), so pay is falling behind prices.) The report lands 11 days before the Federal Reserve's Sept. 15-16 meeting, where the central bank sets its benchmark interest rate. On CME's FedWatch tool, which converts futures market prices into odds on that decision, the chance of a quarter-point rate hike rose to about 60% Friday morning, up from a roughly even split Thursday afternoon. Stocks fell. Trump posted on Truth Social that the Fed board "must get smart — BE PATRIOTS for a change," and separately: "LOWER THE RATE OR I'LL STOP TRADING WITH COUNTRIES WITH WHICH WE HAVE A DEFICIT."
Who got the 162,000 jobs, and what the revisions changed
- Economist Mike Konczal counted 158,000 of the 162,000 August jobs going to women — 98% of the gain. Platypus Economics puts the share at 93% since January 2025.
- Since January 2025, men have netted roughly 60,000 jobs against about 747,000 for women. Women's August unemployment rate was 3.9%; men's was 4.4%.
- The revisions lift average monthly job growth over the past three months to 71,000, up from 20,000 before the Labor Department reworked the June and July figures.
Data: POLI
Red take
The August report gave the Fed 162,000 jobs, triple the 53,000-56,000 forecast, and the temptation to punish it. Blue is right about the real cost: with July CPI at 3.4% and pay up 3.1%, workers are losing ground, and that is not a small thing. But 3.1% is the slowest wage growth since May 2021 — this inflation is diesel at $5.85 a gallon, not paychecks, and no quarter-point move on Sept. 15-16 touches a barrel of oil. What it does touch is the 22,000 construction and 16,000 manufacturing jobs that just showed up. Raise rates and you buy nothing on prices while paying for it in payrolls.
Blue take
Red is right that the Fed cannot lower the price of diesel, and that 22,000 construction and 16,000 manufacturing jobs are the first thing a hike costs. What the Fed can decide is whether 3.4% inflation becomes the number every employer and landlord plans around while wages grow 3.1% — that is a pay cut, renewed monthly, for people who never voted on it. And the 162,000 is thinner than it reads: 59,000 was restaurants and bars, 42,000 local government education. Trump's demand that the board "BE PATRIOTS for a change" is the reason to wait for August CPI on Sept. 11 and let the Sept. 15-16 committee, not Truth Social, set the rate.
Regular gasoline is also near a record at about $4.15 a gallon, against roughly $3.20 last Labor Day.
The national average price of diesel hit $5.85 a gallon on Friday, Sept. 4, according to AAA, passing the record of about $5.81 set in June 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. A year ago the average was $3.71, so the pump price is up 58%. Two wars are squeezing supply. The six-month war between the U.S. and Iran has cut crude flowing out of the Persian Gulf, and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries pushed Moscow to extend its ban on diesel exports through the end of September. Diesel moves nearly all American freight, which is why the spike lands on groceries and other goods. "Diesel is an input to virtually everything we consume," said Erich Muehlegger, an economics professor at UC Davis. Sen. Mark Kelly (Sen-D Arizona) wrote on X that "diesel prices have skyrocketed since Trump started his war with Iran," and that the cost reaches the grocery aisle. White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said the president "remains committed to unleashing American energy dominance" and that prices will fall "as the U.S. military fully degrades the terrorist Iranian regime's ability to attack shipping vessels." ([TS]The U.S. government estimates a sustained global disruption of about 600,000 barrels a day through 2027.)
What the diesel spike is already adding to shipping and food bills
- FedEx and UPS raised fuel surcharges; Amazon added a temporary 3.5% fuel-and-logistics fee on some third-party sellers.
- Seafood prices are up 7% and fresh fruit 4.9%, against 2.7% overall grocery inflation in July.
- Diesel is 3%-5% of input costs for U.S. wheat and corn farmers, and fuel runs 15%-30% of total food costs.
Ongoing5 earlier updates10 days
This story has run 6 times over 10 days, starting Aug 26.
- CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
- CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
- CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
- UpdateCIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen
- Russia's finance minister returned to the G20 in person for the first time since the Ukraine invasion
- Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin in Moscow Sept. 5, Zelensky in Kyiv Sept. 6, carrying a U.S. proposal to end the war — this issue
Ukraine ordered its own forces to hold fire from Sept. 5 to 8 so the envoys can travel safely; Russia has not agreed to reciprocate.
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump's two lead negotiators, will meet Vladimir Putin (President, Russia) in Moscow on Saturday, Sept. 5, then fly to Kyiv to meet Volodymyr Zelensky (President, Ukraine) on Sunday, Sept. 6. Trump said they are carrying a proposal to end the war. It is the first visit to the Ukrainian capital by either envoy since Trump returned to office in January 2025. Zelensky said Ukraine will hold off on airstrikes during the visit so the negotiators can travel safely. Russia made no matching promise. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday, Sept. 4: "Unfortunately, there are no specific prerequisites yet. Work continues and communication is ongoing." Trump put the obstacle in personal terms: "It's a personality problem in Russia-Ukraine... You have President Zelensky and President Putin. They truly hate each other." ([TS]Washington Examiner, BBC and Axios each report the Kyiv stop as the envoys' first since January 2025.)
What Ukraine says it will not sign, going into Sunday, Sept. 6
- No legal recognition of Russian ownership of occupied land — Zelensky has hinted he could live with de facto control for now
- No cap on the size of Ukraine's armed forces, a limit Moscow has pushed for
- No outside veto on whether Ukraine joins NATO or any other alliance
Quick bites9
Judge lets Pentagon fire 3 Stars and Stripes journalists over a CBS interview
APU.S. District Judge Trevor McFadden refused to order the three back to work. In a 24-page ruling, he found they spoke as government employees doing their jobs, not as private citizens. So they are unlikely to prove a First Amendment violation. The Defense Department funds Stars and Stripes, and its staff work for the government. That is why the employee-speech test applies.
- Fired: publisher Max Lederer, editor-in-chief Erik Slavin, and reporter Lara Korte.
- McFadden said they were fired "for giving pre-approved interviews on their paper's behalf in which they largely toed the company line." On his reading, what they said did not matter: the speech was part of the job, so it was not protected either way.
- The ruling denies early relief while the case goes on. It is not a final decision on the merits. The story does not give the Pentagon's stated grounds for the firings, the date of the CBS interview, or any appeal plan.
Coroner rules measles killed a 6-week-old in Lancaster County as US cases hit 3,134, the most since 1991
NBC NEWSLancaster County coroner Stephen Diamantoni confirmed the infant girl died in August. She was 6 weeks old, below the age for a routine first MMR shot.
Where the outbreaks are
- Pennsylvania added 115 cases in the last week, with about 577 in the Lancaster-area outbreak.
- Wisconsin is at 144 cases, up from 26 a month earlier.
- Ohio is at 129 cases, up from just over 60 a month earlier.
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times over 10 days, starting Aug 26.
- Measles kills two Pennsylvanians
- Coroner rules measles killed a 6-week-old in Lancaster County as US cases hit 3,134, the most since 1991 — this issue
Labor IG says former Secretary Chavez-DeRemer charged 18 personal trips to the department
THE GUARDIANAn Inspector General report found former Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer drank on the job and told a security-detail agent to throw cash at a stripper during a personal trip to Oregon. She led the department from March 2025 until she resigned in April 2026. Her attorney says the report confirms she broke no laws.
- 13 trips to visit family or personal residences were billed to the department
- 5 separate trips to Las Vegas were identified
- 38 of 53 interviewed witnesses described a toxic workplace
Two Pennsylvania House Democrats called Fetterman "lazy" and lacking "any sense of duty" after a WSJ report on his skipped Senate work
WSJJohn Fetterman (Sen-D Pennsylvania) skipped a funeral for slain police officers, The Journal reported. He also passed on meetings with voters back home. One was with Children's Hospital of Philadelphia about Medicaid cuts. He still made time for conservative media hits and pro-Israel advocacy. The Journal drew on leaked texts and internal records. It also used interviews with more than a dozen former staffers and lawmakers.
- Brendan Boyle (Rep-D Pennsylvania): "John Fetterman is a disgrace... a lazy trust fund baby who is too lazy to do the job."
- Chris Deluzio (Rep-D Pennsylvania): "between the laziness, disrespect, and willingness to carry water for a foreign government... this man has no sense of duty."
- A group of ex-Fetterman staffers opened an account, @FettermanStaff, saying the report is "just the tip of the iceberg."
Judge orders DOJ to name who designed the $1.8B 'anti-weaponization' fund
NBC NEWSA federal judge ordered the Justice Department to name who set up the taxpayer-funded program. Another judge blocked it in May 2026. Attorney General Todd Blanche says the fund "is dead." But the paper that killed it left off the original signers. So it can be brought back.
3 Vietnam veterans ask a judge to block digging for Trump's 250-foot arch by Arlington
CBS NEWSThe administration says excavation at Memorial Circle begins within two weeks without final sign-off from a key federal review body, and the veterans argue that timing is meant to make the arch a "fait accompli."
- Height: 250 feet, more than twice the Lincoln Memorial.
- Interior Secretary Doug Burgum set the two-week excavation window.
- Retired Army Maj. Gen. Paul Eaton called the project "a sacrilege."
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 4.
- Excavation for Trump's 250-foot arch near Arlington starts within two weeks, with a lawsuit pending
- 3 Vietnam veterans ask a judge to block digging for Trump's 250-foot arch by Arlington — this issue
ICE officer Castro pleads not guilty to 6 counts of lying, released on $75,000 bond
PBS NEWSHOURUpdateChristian Castro pleaded not guilty to all six federal false-statement counts over the Jan. 14, 2026 shooting of Venezuelan migrant Julio Cesar Sosa-Celis in Minneapolis. A judge released him on a $75,000 unsecured bond with a GPS ankle monitor: he paid nothing up front and owes the money only if he fails to appear. Minnesota's separate state assault case is still pending.
Catch up
- Jan. 14 — ICE officer Christian Castro shot Venezuelan migrant Julio Cesar Sosa-Celis through a closed door in Minneapolis. DHS called it an ambush.
- Late Aug. — Castro walked out of a Texas jail after roughly three months, once Gov. Greg Abbott declined to sign Minnesota's extradition warrant and the state's 90-day hold expired.
- Sep. 4 — A federal grand jury indicted Castro on six counts of lying to the FBI. ProPublica reported that Justice Department leaders overruled the lead prosecutor, who wanted a civil rights charge and was fired that day.
What prosecutors say he made up
- Prosecutors say Castro claimed he was attacked with a broom and shovel before he fired through a closed door.
- DHS and then-Secretary Kristi Noem had publicly called the shooting an 'ambush' and 'attempted murder.'
Ongoing4
This story has run 5 times over 17 days, starting Aug 19.
- Texas Governor Abbott refuses to hand over ICE officer charged in Minneapolis shooting, Minnesota sues
- Judge rejects Minnesota’s bid to force Texas to extradite ICE agent Christian Castro
- Texas releases ICE officer after Minnesota’s extradition request goes unsigned for 90 days
- ICE officer Christian Castro indicted on 6 counts of lying to the FBI about shooting a Venezuelan man through a closed door
- UpdateICE officer Castro pleads not guilty to 6 counts of lying, released on $75,000 bond — this issue
Trump will fly the $400 million Qatari-gifted 747 to Ireland next week, its first trip abroad
WASHINGTON EXAMINERTrump first flew on the jet July 1, 2026. Mid-trip, after intelligence flagged a possible Iranian missile threat over Turkey, he secretly switched to an older Air Force One. The Qatari plane flew on as a decoy with staff and press aboard. Trump has said maxing out its defenses would take about 60 days, starting in October.
- The Boeing 747 was a gift from Qatar.
- Trump's estimate to finish the defensive fit-out: about 60 days, beginning in October.
- A senior administration official said the White House does not comment on specific upgrades or modifications to Air Force One.
Trump signs orders letting ranchers slaughter and sell beef direct to consumers, bypassing the big 4 packers
WASHINGTON EXAMINERThe orders take aim at the four big meatpackers — Tyson Foods, JBS USA, Cargill and National Beef Packing Co — and the second one requires country-of-origin labeling on imported beef.
- Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins says the U.S. has lost 600,000 ranchers since 1980.
- Trump separately said tariff-free beef imports from Brazil and Argentina are coming, but gave no timeline or mechanism.
Elections22 races
The midterms · 59 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
today · 7-day panel
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 88%, Kalshi 85%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 52%, Kalshi 48%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
How to read thisthe contract, the key, and the week panel
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
Both lines in a week panel are the same contract, priced by two venues — not one line per party. Its colour is whose chance the bar is measuring, which is why a panel can be blue while the verdict beside it reads Republicans favoured.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 3.0pp gap / 4.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 90% | 84% | 51% | 48% |
| 6 days ago | 89% | 84% | 51% | 48% |
| 5 days ago | 89% | 85% | 51% | 48% |
| 4 days ago | 89% | 85% | 52% | 49% |
| 3 days ago | 90% | 85% | 52% | 48% |
| 2 days ago | 89% | 85% | 52% | 48% |
| yesterday | 88% | 85% | 52% | 48% |
| today | 88% | 85% | 52% | 48% |
The 3 closest of 22 races. Open one, or all of them — every race is on the page either way.
nTexas SenatePaxton vs. TalaricoTalarico50.5%Paxton52.0%books split
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
Ken Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D).
The only race here where the two venues do not agree on who is ahead.
The books name different leaders
Texas Senate
Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.
Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.5ppTexas Senate. Lead in percentage points, positive to Ken Paxton. Kalshi: Paxton ahead by 3.5 points. Polymarket: Talarico ahead by 1 point. Every day is in the table below.
today
- Paxton+3.5%Kalshi
- Talarico+1%Polymarket
- Paxton49.5%Polymarket
- Paxton52.0%Kalshi
- Talarico50.5%Polymarket
- Talarico48.5%Kalshi
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
The lead is one candidate’s price minus the other’s, at the same venue on the same day — never one book’s Tuesday against the other’s Thursday. It is drawn only where a venue priced both candidates, so a line starts late rather than being stretched across days it was never quoted over.
A day inside a tenth of a point is printed as levelrather than being rounded onto somebody’s side: on a chart whose whole subject is who is in front, a dead heat shown as a win is the one error that cannot be recovered from the drawing.
The markets: Ken Paxton Polymarket, Kalshi · James Talarico Polymarket, Kalshi
Every price behind the chart, and the lead it produces. Texas Senate, snapshot Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT. Day Paxton · Polymarket Talarico · Polymarket Lead · Polymarket Paxton · Kalshi Talarico · Kalshi Lead · Kalshi 7 days ago 50.5% 49.5% Paxton +1% 51.0% 50.0% Paxton +1% 6 days ago 48.5% 50.0% Talarico +1.5% 50.0% 50.0% level 5 days ago 48.5% 50.5% Talarico +2% 51.0% 51.0% level 4 days ago 48.5% 50.5% Talarico +2% 51.0% 50.0% Paxton +1% 3 days ago 49.5% 50.5% Talarico +1% 51.0% 50.0% Paxton +1% 2 days ago 49.5% 50.5% Talarico +1% 53.0% 48.0% Paxton +5% yesterday 49.5% 50.5% Talarico +1% 52.0% 49.0% Paxton +3% today 49.5% 50.5% Talarico +1% 52.0% 48.5% Paxton +3.5% rOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 54% · Jon Husted 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$119K54.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 53%/54%55.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$88.4K45.5%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 46%/47%47.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 47.0% 6 days ago 54.5% 56.0% 45.5% 46.0% 5 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 46.0% 4 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 46.0% 3 days ago 55.5% 54.0% 44.5% 47.0% 2 days ago 55.5% 54.0% 43.5% 48.0% yesterday 55.5% 53.0% 43.5% 48.0% today 55.5% 53.5% 43.5% 46.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
lOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 57% · Vivek Ramaswamy 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$82.9K53.5%Kalshi701K contracts · 57%/58%56.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+2.0ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$98.6K46.5%Kalshi783K contracts · 42%/43%44.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 53.5% 56.0% 46.5% 44.0% 6 days ago 53.5% 57.0% 46.5% 44.0% 5 days ago 53.5% 57.0% 46.5% 44.0% 4 days ago 53.5% 57.0% 45.5% 43.0% 3 days ago 54.5% 58.0% 45.5% 42.0% 2 days ago 55.5% 57.0% 44.5% 44.0% yesterday 55.5% 57.0% 44.5% 44.0% today 55.5% 57.5% 44.5% 42.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 19 races
Senate8 of 10
oAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 63.5%, Kalshi 65.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 35.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 64% · Dan Sullivan 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$244K64.5%Kalshi81.7K contracts · 65%/66%64.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$138K34.5%Kalshi73.7K contracts · 34%/36%39.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move+2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 64.5% 64.0% 34.5% 39% 6 days ago 65.0% 63.0% 34.5% 39% 5 days ago 63.5% 62.0% 36.5% 36% 4 days ago 63.5% 65.0% 36.5% 36% 3 days ago 63.5% 67.0% 36.5% 34% 2 days ago 63.5% 65.0% 36.5% 33% yesterday 63.5% 67.0% 36.5% 32% today 63.5% 65.5% 36.5% 35% wGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.50%, Kalshi 92.65%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 6.4%, Kalshi 7.4%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 93% · Mike Collins 7.3%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$49.2K93.5%Kalshi355K contracts · 92%/93%92.7%venue gap0.8pp7-day move0.0ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$74.5K6.35%Kalshi855K contracts · 7.1%/7.7%7.90%venue gap1.6pp7-day move+0.1ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 93.5% 92.70% 6.35% 7.9% 6 days ago 93.5% 92.60% 6.40% 8.1% 5 days ago 93.5% 92.80% 6.40% 7.7% 4 days ago 93.5% 93.00% 6.45% 7.5% 3 days ago 93.5% 93.40% 6.40% 7.4% 2 days ago 93.5% 93.60% 6.40% 7.4% yesterday 93.5% 93.70% 6.40% 6.8% today 93.5% 92.65% 6.40% 7.4% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
pIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 64.5%, Kalshi 64.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 35.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 65% · Josh Turek 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$119K61%Kalshi1.0M contracts · 64%/65%59%venue gap2.0pp7-day move+3.5ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$109K39.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 35%/36%42.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 61.0% 59.0% 39.5% 42.0% 6 days ago 60.5% 59.0% 39.5% 42.0% 5 days ago 64.0% 59.0% 37.0% 41.0% 4 days ago 64.0% 62.0% 37.0% 39.0% 3 days ago 64.0% 62.0% 36.5% 40.0% 2 days ago 63.5% 63.0% 36.5% 38.0% yesterday 64.5% 64.0% 36.5% 37.0% today 64.5% 64.5% 36.5% 35.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
mMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 69% · Susan Collins 31%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$738K69.5%Kalshi2.0M contracts · 68%/69%69.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$500K30.5%Kalshi2.7M contracts · 31%/32%32.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 69.5% 69.0% 30.5% 32.0% 6 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 31.0% 5 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 31.0% 4 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 31.0% 3 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 30.0% 2 days ago 69.5% 68.0% 30.5% 32.0% yesterday 69.5% 69.0% 30.5% 31.0% today 69.5% 68.5% 30.5% 31.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
qMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 64.5%, Kalshi 63.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 37.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 64% · Mike Rogers 37%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$353K64.5%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 63%/64%63.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$295K35.5%Kalshi1.9M contracts · 37%/38%39.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 64.5% 63.0% 35.5% 39.0% 6 days ago 64.5% 63.0% 35.5% 37.0% 5 days ago 64.5% 64.0% 35.5% 37.0% 4 days ago 64.5% 64.0% 35.5% 37.0% 3 days ago 64.5% 63.0% 35.5% 37.0% 2 days ago 64.5% 64.0% 35.0% 37.0% yesterday 64.5% 64.0% 35.5% 38.0% today 64.5% 63.5% 35.5% 37.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
xNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 69.0%, Kalshi 70.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 29.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 70% · Dan Osborn 30%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$102K70.5%Kalshi291K contracts · 70%/71%70.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.5ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$29.2K29.5%Kalshi385K contracts · 29%/30%29.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 70.5% 70.0% 29.5% 29.0% 6 days ago 70.0% 70.0% 29.5% 30.0% 5 days ago 70.5% 70.0% 29.5% 31.0% 4 days ago 68.5% 69.0% 29.5% 30.0% 3 days ago 69.0% 70.0% 31.0% 31.0% 2 days ago 69.0% 70.0% 30.5% 31.0% yesterday 69.0% 70.0% 30.5% 30.0% today 69.0% 70.5% 30.5% 29.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
yNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) leads the unresolved Democratic primary; John E. Sununu (R) leads the unresolved Republican primary.
Neither nomination is official yet, though the market already treats both as decided.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 82.5%, Kalshi 81.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 17.5%, Kalshi 18.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 82% · John E. Sununu 18%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)*7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$64.9K84.5%Kalshi103K contracts · 81%/82%84.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-2.0ppJohn E. Sununu (R)*7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$28.4K14.5%Kalshi204K contracts · 18%/19%17.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago 84.5% 84.0% 14.5% 17.0% 6 days ago 84.5% 84.0% 16.0% 18.0% 5 days ago 83.5% 84.0% 16.5% 17.0% 4 days ago 83.5% 83.0% 16.5% 17.0% 3 days ago 82.5% 84.0% 17.5% 18.0% 2 days ago 82.5% 84.0% 17.5% 16.0% yesterday 82.5% 83.0% 17.5% 18.0% today 82.5% 81.5% 17.5% 18.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
vNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.6pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 91.50%, Kalshi 91.25%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.50%, Kalshi 9.15%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 91% · Michael Whatley 9.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$43.1K91.5%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 91%/92%92.3%venue gap0.8pp7-day move0.0ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$59.8K9.0%Kalshi657K contracts · 8.8%/9.5%8.8%venue gap0.2pp7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 91.5% 92.30% 9.0% 8.80% 6 days ago 92.0% 91.10% 8.0% 9.80% 5 days ago 91.5% 92.50% 8.0% 9.10% 4 days ago 91.5% 91.20% 8.5% 9.20% 3 days ago 91.5% 91.20% 8.5% 9.10% 2 days ago 91.5% 91.10% 8.5% 9.20% yesterday 91.5% 91.20% 8.5% 9.00% today 91.5% 91.25% 8.5% 9.15% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors11 of 12
aaAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
Wilson holds a commanding lead after losing about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 33%, Kalshi 32%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.30%, Kalshi 0.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 33% · Tom Begich 0.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$171K35.5%Kalshi52.0K contracts · 31%/33%36.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-2.5ppTom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$159K1.4%Kalshi231K contracts · 0.2%/0.7%1.0%venue gap0.4pp7-day move-0.1ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT. Day Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi 7 days ago 35.5% 36% 1.40% 1.00% 6 days ago 35.5% 37% 1.30% 0.10% 5 days ago 35.5% 36% 1.25% 1.00% 4 days ago 35.5% 30% 1.25% 0.10% 3 days ago 33.5% 33% 1.25% 0.30% 2 days ago 33.0% 31% 1.30% 0.30% yesterday 33.0% 31% 1.30% 0.20% today 33.0% 32% 1.30% 0.45% acArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 86.5%, Kalshi 86.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 13.5%, Kalshi 14.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 87% · Andy Biggs 14%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.6K87.5%Kalshi306K contracts · 86%/87%89.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$36.7K12.5%Kalshi243K contracts · 14%/15%14.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 87.5% 89.0% 12.5% 14.0% 6 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 14.0% 5 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 15.0% 4 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 15.0% 3 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 14.0% 2 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 15.0% yesterday 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 14.0% today 86.5% 86.5% 13.5% 14.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
agFlorida governor
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 81.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 19.0%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 82% · David Jolly 19%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$27.0K81%Kalshi497K contracts · 81%/82%83%venue gap2.0pp7-day move+0.5ppDavid Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.2K19.5%Kalshi291K contracts · 19%/20%18.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT. Day Byron Donalds · Polymarket Byron Donalds · Kalshi David Jolly · Polymarket David Jolly · Kalshi 7 days ago 81.0% 83.0% 19.5% 18.0% 6 days ago 81.0% 84.0% 19.5% 17.0% 5 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 19.5% 19.0% 4 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 19.0% 20.0% 3 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 19.0% 17.0% 2 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 19.0% 19.0% yesterday 81.5% 81.0% 19.0% 20.0% today 81.5% 81.5% 19.0% 19.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
tGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 57% · Rick Jackson 42%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$33.0K59%Kalshi290K contracts · 56%/57%60%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-0.5ppRick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$37.7K39%Kalshi381K contracts · 42%/43%42%venue gap3.0pp7-day move+1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT. Day Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi 7 days ago 59.0% 60.0% 39.0% 42.0% 6 days ago 59.0% 59.0% 39.0% 41.0% 5 days ago 60.5% 60.0% 38.0% 41.0% 4 days ago 59.0% 60.0% 40.0% 41.0% 3 days ago 58.5% 59.0% 40.5% 41.0% 2 days ago 58.5% 59.0% 40.5% 43.0% yesterday 58.5% 58.0% 40.5% 43.0% today 58.5% 56.5% 40.5% 42.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
zIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 74.5%, Kalshi 76.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 76% · Zach Lahn 24%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.2K74.5%Kalshi319K contracts · 76%/77%75.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$43.8K25.5%Kalshi299K contracts · 23%/24%27.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 74.5% 75.0% 25.5% 27.0% 6 days ago 75.5% 74.0% 24.5% 26.0% 5 days ago 75.5% 77.0% 24.5% 26.0% 4 days ago 76.5% 75.0% 24.5% 27.0% 3 days ago 76.5% 76.0% 24.5% 27.0% 2 days ago 74.5% 76.0% 25.5% 25.0% yesterday 74.5% 76.0% 25.5% 24.0% today 74.5% 76.5% 25.5% 23.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
abMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.3pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 90.0%, Kalshi 89.7%; John James (R): Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 10.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.3pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 90% · John James 11%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$48.4K90.5%Kalshi73.2K contracts · 88%/91%92.9%venue gap2.4pp7-day move-0.5ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$154K8%Kalshi129K contracts · 9.0%/12%15%venue gap7.0pp7-day move+2.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 90.5% 92.9% 8.0% 15.0% 6 days ago 92.0% 89.0% 8.0% 10.0% 5 days ago 92.0% 87.0% 8.0% 15.0% 4 days ago 91.0% 87.0% 8.5% 14.0% 3 days ago 90.5% 90.2% 10.0% 12.0% 2 days ago 90.0% 87.0% 10.5% 14.0% yesterday 90.0% 89.0% 10.5% 12.0% today 90.0% 89.7% 10.5% 10.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
uNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 59%, Kalshi 60%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 41%, Kalshi 41%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 60% · Aaron Ford 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$66.5K59.5%Kalshi238K contracts · 59%/61%60.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-0.5ppAaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$23.6K41%Kalshi482K contracts · 40%/42%—venue gap—7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT. Day Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi 7 days ago 59.5% 60% 41.0% — 6 days ago 60.5% 60% 40.0% 40% 5 days ago 57.0% 60% 40.5% 42% 4 days ago 57.5% 55% 40.5% 42% 3 days ago 57.5% 58% 40.5% 41% 2 days ago 59.0% 61% 41.0% 40% yesterday 59.0% 61% 41.0% 41% today 59.0% 60% 41.0% 41% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aeNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.1pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.5%, Kalshi 93.8%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.5%, Kalshi 6.6%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.1pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 94% · Bruce Blakeman 6.5%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$49.5K94.5%Kalshi287K contracts · 94%/94%94.3%venue gap0.2pp7-day move0.0ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$56.0K5.0%Kalshi808K contracts · 6.3%/6.9%6.2%venue gap1.2pp7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 94.5% 94.3% 5.0% 6.2% 6 days ago 94.5% 94.1% 5.5% 6.2% 5 days ago 94.5% 94.0% 5.5% 6.6% 4 days ago 94.5% 94.1% 5.0% 7.7% 3 days ago 94.5% 94.0% 5.0% 7.5% 2 days ago 94.5% 93.8% 4.5% 5.3% yesterday 94.5% 93.8% 4.5% 6.9% today 94.5% 93.8% 4.5% 6.6% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
afPennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.2pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 97.30%, Kalshi 97.05%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.15%, Kalshi 3.30%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 3–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 97% · Stacy Garrity 3.2%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$7.5K95.5%Kalshi99.1K contracts · 97%/97%—venue gap—7-day move+1.8ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$41.6K2.5%Kalshi392K contracts · 2.9%/3.7%—venue gap—7-day move-0.4ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 95.50% — 2.50% — 6 days ago 95.50% — 2.25% — 5 days ago 95.50% — 2.30% 4.9% 4 days ago 95.50% — 2.30% 4.9% 3 days ago 96.85% — 2.25% 4.3% 2 days ago 97.25% 97.70% 2.15% 4.3% yesterday 97.30% 96.70% 2.15% 3.8% today 97.30% 97.05% 2.15% 3.3% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
adTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead after losing about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.2pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 81.25%, Kalshi 82.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 18.0%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 82% · Gina Hinojosa 18%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$40.7K83.05%Kalshi168K contracts · 82%/83%86.00%venue gap2.9pp7-day move-1.8ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$51.3K16%Kalshi637K contracts · 17%/18%16%venue gap0.0pp7-day move+2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 83.05% 86.0% 16.0% 16.0% 6 days ago 78.75% 86.0% 17.5% 16.0% 5 days ago 81.55% 85.0% 19.0% 16.0% 4 days ago 81.75% 85.0% 18.5% 17.0% 3 days ago 81.20% 84.0% 18.5% 18.0% 2 days ago 81.35% 81.0% 17.5% 20.0% yesterday 81.30% 82.0% 17.5% 18.0% today 81.25% 82.5% 18.0% 17.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
sWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 82.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 18.0%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 81% · Tom Tiffany 20%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$293K80.5%Kalshi449K contracts · 79%/80%80.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+2.0ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$264K19.5%Kalshi467K contracts · 20%/21%21.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 80.5% 80.0% 19.5% 21.0% 6 days ago 81.5% 79.0% 19.5% 21.0% 5 days ago 81.5% 80.0% 19.5% 20.0% 4 days ago 82.5% 80.0% 18.5% 19.0% 3 days ago 82.5% 78.0% 18.5% 21.0% 2 days ago 82.5% 80.0% 18.0% 21.0% yesterday 82.5% 80.0% 18.0% 20.0% today 82.5% 79.5% 18.0% 20.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Also in elections2
jSupreme Court lets party committees buy TV ads at the cheap candidate rate, 8-1
CBS NEWS: Supreme Court lets party committees buy TV ads at the cheap candidate rate, 8-1
In the 60 days before a general election, federal law makes broadcasters sell candidates airtime at the lowest rate they charge any advertiser — the "lowest unit charge." Party committees had been shut out of it. The unsigned order paused a 4th Circuit ruling that had barred them from the discounted rate, landing on Sept. 4 — exactly 60 days before the Nov. 3 election, when that window takes effect. The emergency application came from the NRCC and NRSC. The 8-1 majority did not reach the merits: it held the 4th Circuit likely lacked jurisdiction because the Democratic candidates' petition was still pending at the FCC. Jackson, alone, thought that bar did not apply.
Cash on hand and ad reservations:
- RNC has over $130 million cash on hand.
- DNC has $9.5 million cash and roughly $18 million in debt.
- NRCC has reserved $10.8 million in TV ads this month across 23 House races.
Jackson dissents alone as the 60-day discount window opens.
kNC board votes 3-2 to reject mail ballots with unsealed envelopes or mismatched signatures
THE HILL: NC board votes 3-2 to reject mail ballots with unsealed envelopes or mismatched signatures
North Carolina's elections board voted 3-2 to reject mail ballots with an unsealed inner envelope or a signature that doesn't match. The three Republicans outvoted the two Democrats. The guidance came the same day the first mail ballots went out to more than 46,000 voters.
- Board composition: 3 Republicans, 2 Democrats; the vote split along party lines.
- New disqualifying defects: unsealed inner envelope, mismatched signature.
- First batch: 46,000+ voters, mailed the same day.
The party-line vote came hours before the state mailed its first midterm ballots.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 4, 9:47 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.