Annual core inflation slowed to 2.4%, and a quarter-point increase on Sept. 16 would be the first Federal Reserve rate hike since July 2023.
What a quarter-point hike would cost a household: The benchmark federal funds target range moves to 3.75%–4.00% — and credit-card and home-equity rates, which track it directly, follow within weeks. If lenders pass the full increase through, a new $400,000 30-year mortgage costs about $65 more a month — roughly $24,000 more over the life of the loan. Inflation-adjusted hourly earnings already fell 0.3% over the year, extending real wage declines to five straight months.
ContextThe Federal Reserve's formal 2% inflation goal applies to personal consumption expenditures, which usually run cooler than consumer prices. Annual consumer price growth averaged 1.5% from 2015 to 2019 and 4.5% from 2021 to 2025. Forecasters at EY-Parthenon reversed their policy call this week, moving from an expected pause to a quarter-point hike.
Saudi Arabia shut its 7-million-barrel-per-day East-West pipeline after drone strikes from Iraq.
On Sept. 9, Houthi missiles and drones struck 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 people and shutting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery.
ContextThe Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea's southern gate — every ship sailing between the Indian Ocean and the Suez Canal passes through its 28-kilometer width. Oil moving through the Bab el-Mandeb strait was 9.3 million barrels a day in 2023 (the desk's 2026-07-25 shipping figures). Houthi forces held Mokha until coalition troops retook it in February 2017, and Perim until October 2015; holding the strait's eastern shore again puts that traffic within reach of their drones and missiles. Tankers that cannot risk the run detour around southern Africa — a longer route that raises marine insurance rates and, eventually, the price of fuel.
Annual core inflation slowed to 2.4%, and a quarter-point increase on Sept. 16 would be the first Federal Reserve rate hike since July 2023.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in August, quadrupling July's 0.1% increase as consumer prices held at a 3.4% annual rate — above the 3.3% forecasters had projected the day before. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.3% on the month while slowing to 2.4% over the past year. Following the data release, interest-rate futures priced in a greater than 80% chance of a quarter-point rate increase at the Federal Reserve's Sept. 16 meeting.
What next. The Federal Open Market Committee convenes for its two-day policy meeting on Sept. 15, with a formal interest-rate decision scheduled for Wednesday, Sept. 16. Nearly half of Fed policymakers had already signaled support for raising rates again.
What a quarter-point hike would cost a householdThe benchmark federal funds target range moves to 3.75%–4.00% — and credit-card and home-equity rates, which track it directly,…3 details
The benchmark federal funds target range moves to 3.75%–4.00% — and credit-card and home-equity rates, which track it directly, follow within weeks.
If lenders pass the full increase through, a new $400,000 30-year mortgage costs about $65 more a month — roughly $24,000 more over the life of the loan.
Inflation-adjusted hourly earnings already fell 0.3% over the year, extending real wage declines to five straight months.
Saudi Arabia shut its 7-million-barrel-per-day East-West pipeline after drone strikes from Iraq.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman asked for direct air strikes on the Houthis. Donald Trump turned down the request, offering intelligence and targeting help instead.
Currently showing Mokha and Perim island at the Bab el-Mandeb strait
Mokha and Perim island at the Bab el-Mandeb strait
Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue
On Sept. 9, Houthi missiles and drones struck 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 people and shutting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery.
The House Rules Committee set Monday consideration for the White House-backed measure, though some House Democrats oppose granting Donald Trump excessive tariff authority.
Behind the voteThe Senate approved the legislation in August with overwhelming bipartisan support.2 details
The Senate approved the legislation in August with overwhelming bipartisan support.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy (President, Ukraine) urged immediate action on Friday, stating that sanctions must be strong.
Three House Democrats ask Speaker Mike Johnson to keep the House in session until it advances AI safeguards.
Johnson pointed to industry discussions in early winter, leaving three competing safeguard bills without scheduled floor votes.
Representatives Sam Liccardo (Rep-D California), George Whitesides (Rep-D California), and Lori Trahan (Rep-D Massachusetts) urged House Speaker Mike Johnson (Rep-R Louisiana) to keep the chamber in session until it advances bipartisan artificial intelligence safeguards.
The demand. Their circulating letter garnered only three signatures, warning that lawmakers "cannot disagree about the imperative for Congress to act" following public extinction warnings from former Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon.
The pushback. Republican leaders declined to cancel recess or schedule floor votes, with Nathaniel Moran (Rep-R Texas) arguing policymakers should allow the sector to flourish while deliberately mitigating risks.
What next. Johnson said he wants AI companies to discuss consensus guardrails at the start of winter, leaving three competing statutory frameworks without calendar dates.
What the three competing safeguard bills would mandateThe bipartisan AI Kill Switch Act requires covered advanced models to retain human-controlled mechanisms to slow, suspend, or shut…3 details
The bipartisan AI Kill Switch Act requires covered advanced models to retain human-controlled mechanisms to slow, suspend, or shut down operations.
The bipartisan FRONTIER Act establishes a national risk-based framework for developing and deploying advanced systems.
Legislation planned by Bernie Sanders (Sen-I Vermont) and Greg Casar (Rep-D Texas) halts advanced AI development and bans superintelligence.
Also tonight1 bite
A 3-0 D.C. Circuit panel ruled the Energy Department lacked authority to keep Michigan's 64-year-old J.H. Campbell coal plant open.
Extended operation had cost ratepayers $259 million since state regulators approved its May 2025 retirement.
A unanimous three-judge D.C. Circuit panel ruled Friday, Sept. 11, that the Energy Department exceeded its authority by ordering the West Olive coal plant to stay online. The judges held that Section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act (a temporary emergency provision for sudden power shortfalls) cannot override an orderly retirement vetted by regional grid operators.
“ essentially a narrow, last-resort backstop.”Judge Cornelia Pillard
Where it stands. Plant owner Consumers Energy said the facility will keep running through Nov. 14 under a subsequent 90-day federal order while the administration decides whether to seek an en banc rehearing or appeal to the Supreme Court.
What the emergency plant orders cost and cover nationwideNearly $1 billion in total ratepayer costs across all federal emergency plant directives.2 details
Nearly $1 billion in total ratepayer costs across all federal emergency plant directives.
One dual-fuel oil-and-gas facility in Pennsylvania also forced to remain online.
Election Bites2 bites
Supreme Court weighs letting USPS enforce blocked mail-ballot rules ahead of November
THE ATLANTIC: Justice Department appeals after judge blocks USPS from rejecting noncompliant mail ballots for 14 days
The rules require federal approval of envelope designs, barcodes and voter-list uploads, but the Postal Service said on Sept. 3 that the federal portal is not yet online.
[PREVIOUSLY]
Aug. 26 — A federal judge permitted USPS to publish its mail-ballot rule after the Supreme Court lifted an earlier nationwide block 6-3.
Aug. 27 — 24 states and D.C. sued in Boston to block the postal restrictions, alleging USPS lacks authority over mail ballots.
Aug. 29 — A Boston judge blocked USPS from rejecting noncompliant mail ballots for 14 days, prompting a Justice Department appeal.
Implementation issues:
Election-law scholar Rick Hasen warned that imposing the rules shortly before the election could cause mass disenfranchisement.
Lower courts blocked requirements for envelope approvals, barcodes and voter-list uploads.
Justice Department orders 29 states and D.C. to preserve 2024 election records
ABC NEWS: Justice Department orders 29 states and D.C. to preserve 2024 election records
A department letter warned Utah Lieutenant Governor Deidre Henderson that she was under investigation, though Civil Rights Division head Harmeet Dhillon defended the notices as standard litigation holds.
The Justice Department is seeking statewide voter files that include addresses, birth dates, driver's-license numbers, and partial Social Security digits.
Notices sent across 29 states and the District of Columbia warn that failing to retain files carries potential civil or criminal penalties.
Federal lawsuits seek statewide voter databases including birth dates, driver's licenses, and partial Social Security numbers.
Elections22 racesShowHide
The midterms · 52 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 88%, Kalshi 86%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 53%, Kalshi 49%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
U.S. House — Democrats take it, 85.5–87.5%
0% Dem50%100% Dem
7d agotoday
88%86%chance Democrats take it · 2.0pp apart · no clear move — one venue moved, the other did not
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 88% and Kalshi 86%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 48.5–52.5%
0% Dem50%100% Dem
7d agotoday
53%49%chance Democrats take it · 4.0pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 53% and Kalshi 49%.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
two venues, priced separately
shaded = how far apart they are
50% — control flips here
where it stood 7 days ago
the last 7 days, on its own scale
week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 2.0pp gap / 4.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
PolymarketU.S. House · todayWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Democratic control88%
Republican, implied12%
volume$6.2M
7-day move0.0pp
KalshiU.S. House · todayWill Democrats win the House in 2026?
Democratic control86%
Republican, implied14%
volume11M contracts
bid / ask85% / 86%
7-day move+0.5pp
PolymarketU.S. Senate · todayWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Democratic control53%
Republican, implied47%
volume$2.5M
7-day move+1.0pp
KalshiU.S. Senate · todayWill Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?
Democratic control49%
Republican, implied51%
volume3.5M contracts
bid / ask48% / 49%
7-day move+0.5pp
Probability that Democrats control each chamber, as each venue prices it, by day.
A dead heat — the two sides are priced within two points of each other, after the Republican side lost about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT widest venue gap 1.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 51.5%, Kalshi 50.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 48.5%, Kalshi 49.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: James Talarico 51% · Ken Paxton 49%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT widest venue gap 1.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 51.5%, Kalshi 52.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 47.5%, Kalshi 48.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 52% · Jon Husted 48%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT widest venue gap 0.5pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 56.0%, Kalshi 55.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 56% · Aaron Ford 44%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT widest venue gap 1.5pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 66.5%, Kalshi 66.0%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 34.0%, Kalshi 35.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 66% · Dan Sullivan 35%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT widest venue gap 1.2pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 91.50%, Kalshi 92.65%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 7.60%, Kalshi 7.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 93% · Mike Collins 7.5%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT widest venue gap 1.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 61.0%, Kalshi 61.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 38.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 61% · Josh Turek 39%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT widest venue gap 4.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 67.0%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 32.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 68% · Susan Collins 32%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 62.5%, Kalshi 62.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 37.0%, Kalshi 39.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 63% · Mike Rogers 39%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 68.5%, Kalshi 70.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 70% · Dan Osborn 27%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT widest venue gap 1.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 84.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 15.5%, Kalshi 15.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 84% · John E. Sununu 15%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Every sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT.
Day
Chris Pappas · Polymarket
Chris Pappas · Kalshi
John E. Sununu · Polymarket
John E. Sununu · Kalshi
7 days ago
83.5%
81.0%
17.5%
19.0%
6 days ago
82.5%
82.0%
17.5%
18.0%
5 days ago
82.0%
83.0%
18.5%
19.0%
4 days ago
83.0%
83.0%
17.5%
19.0%
3 days ago
81.0%
83.0%
19.0%
18.0%
2 days ago
82.5%
85.0%
17.5%
17.0%
yesterday
83.5%
84.0%
15.5%
16.0%
today
83.5%
84.5%
15.5%
15.5%
These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
rNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 91.92%▲0.48.68%Whatley
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT widest venue gap 1.2pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 92.50%, Kalshi 91.35%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.50%, Kalshi 8.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 91% · Michael Whatley 8.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Wilson holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: it is down about five points.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT widest venue gap 1.5pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 26.0%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.35%, Kalshi 0.15%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 27% · Tom Begich 0.6%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT widest venue gap 1.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.0%, Kalshi 86.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 13%, Kalshi 14%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 87% · Andy Biggs 14%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT widest venue gap 2.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 80% · David Jolly 20%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT widest venue gap 1.5pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 42.0%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 57% · Rick Jackson 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contract
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT widest venue gap 0.5pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 77.0%, Kalshi 77.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 23.5%, Kalshi 24.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 77% · Zach Lahn 24%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT widest venue gap 2.5pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 92.0%, Kalshi 89.5%; John James (R): Polymarket 7.50%, Kalshi 9.55%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 91% · John James 8.4%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT widest venue gap 2.3pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.50%, Kalshi 92.15%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 6.50%, Kalshi 8.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.3pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 92% · Bruce Blakeman 8.3%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT widest venue gap 1.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 56% · Vivek Ramaswamy 45%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT widest venue gap 1.4pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 97.05%, Kalshi 96.55%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.35%, Kalshi 3.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.4pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 97% · Stacy Garrity 3.6%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT widest venue gap 1.6pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 80.85%, Kalshi 82.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 18.0%, Kalshi 18.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.6pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 82% · Gina Hinojosa 18%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT widest venue gap 2.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 82.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 17.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 81% · Tom Tiffany 19%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Every sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT.
Day
David Crowley · Polymarket
David Crowley · Kalshi
Tom Tiffany · Polymarket
Tom Tiffany · Kalshi
7 days ago
82.5%
79.0%
17.5%
20.0%
6 days ago
82.5%
79.0%
17.5%
20.0%
5 days ago
83.5%
79.0%
17.5%
21.0%
4 days ago
83.5%
80.0%
17.5%
20.0%
3 days ago
82.5%
81.0%
17.5%
20.0%
2 days ago
82.5%
80.0%
17.5%
20.0%
yesterday
82.5%
82.0%
17.5%
19.0%
today
82.5%
80.5%
17.5%
19.5%
These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
Trump’s comments1
What Trump said today, from policy conditions to off-the-cuff remarks.
32 stories that didn't make the cutSeen by the desk, ranked, and not run. The number is where each stood in the day's order.ShowHide
3[UPDATE] Anthropic reports Claude was used for missile guidance and 5 potential biological weapons casesTwo of the 5 biological inquiries involved gain-of-function research on dangerous viruses during a 9-month review spanning December 2025 through August 2026.
36[UPDATE] U.S. average diesel price reaches a record $6.06 a gallonQuality gate drop (score 0.00): unsupported-superlative
37Federal budget deficit reached $1.97 trillion through August with one month left in fiscal 2026.Quality gate drop (score 0.00): unsupported-superlative
38ICE made a record 50,925 immigration arrests in August under a 2,000-a-day mandateQuality gate drop (score 0.00): unsupported-superlative
39U.S. makes progress reopening the Strait of Hormuz while the Iran war continuesU.S. makes progress reopening the Strait of Hormuz while the Iran war continues
41Trump administration proposes census changes affecting immigrants, race data and political powerTrump administration proposes census changes affecting immigrants, race data and political power
42Leader of a DOJ investigation into Trump’s perceived foes resigns amid internal tensionsLeader of a DOJ investigation into Trump’s perceived foes resigns amid internal tensions
43Trump expands restrictions on Canadian goods amid the U.S.-Canada trade disputeTrump expands restrictions on Canadian goods amid the U.S.-Canada trade dispute
44Saudi Arabian oil pipeline system hit by projectiles triggering firesSaudi Arabian oil pipeline system hit by projectiles triggering fires
45White House considers using the Defense Production Act to expand oil-refining capacityWhite House considers using the Defense Production Act to expand oil-refining capacity
46Iran and Gulf states plan talks aimed at a temporary Hormuz shipping dealIran and Gulf states plan talks aimed at a temporary Hormuz shipping deal
49Polling and forecasts show the state of the House and Senate contestsPolling and forecasts show the state of the House and Senate contests
50Judge blocks a Trump administration loyalty question for federal job applicantsJudge blocks a Trump administration loyalty question for federal job applicants
51[UPDATE] U.S. average diesel price reaches a record $6.06 a gallonQuality gate drop (score 0.00): unsupported-superlative
52Federal budget deficit reached $1.97 trillion through August with one month left in fiscal 2026.Quality gate drop (score 0.00): unsupported-superlative
53ICE made a record 50,925 immigration arrests in August under a 2,000-a-day mandateQuality gate drop (score 0.00): unsupported-superlative
54U.S. makes progress reopening the Strait of Hormuz while the Iran war continuesU.S. makes progress reopening the Strait of Hormuz while the Iran war continues
56Trump administration proposes census changes affecting immigrants, race data and political powerTrump administration proposes census changes affecting immigrants, race data and political power
57Leader of a DOJ investigation into Trump’s perceived foes resigns amid internal tensionsLeader of a DOJ investigation into Trump’s perceived foes resigns amid internal tensions
58Trump expands restrictions on Canadian goods amid the U.S.-Canada trade disputeTrump expands restrictions on Canadian goods amid the U.S.-Canada trade dispute
59Saudi Arabian oil pipeline system hit by projectiles triggering firesSaudi Arabian oil pipeline system hit by projectiles triggering fires
60White House considers using the Defense Production Act to expand oil-refining capacityWhite House considers using the Defense Production Act to expand oil-refining capacity
61Iran and Gulf states plan talks aimed at a temporary Hormuz shipping dealIran and Gulf states plan talks aimed at a temporary Hormuz shipping deal
62Inflation and household costs complicate Republicans’ midterm economic messageInflation and household costs complicate Republicans’ midterm economic message
63Missouri’s congressional redistricting dispute moves through state and federal courtsMissouri’s congressional redistricting dispute moves through state and federal courts
64Polling and forecasts show the state of the House and Senate contestsPolling and forecasts show the state of the House and Senate contests
65Judge blocks a Trump administration loyalty question for federal job applicantsJudge blocks a Trump administration loyalty question for federal job applicants
66U.S. makes progress reopening the Strait of Hormuz while the Iran war continues
68Saudi Arabian oil pipeline system hit by projectiles triggering fires
69White House considers using the Defense Production Act to expand oil-refining capacity
Trump’s comments1
What Trump said today, from policy conditions to off-the-cuff remarks.
Trump threatens tariffs unless Fed chair Kevin Warsh cuts interest rates
Trump threatens tariffs unless Fed chair Kevin Warsh cuts interest rates