News news2 stories
Annual core inflation slowed to 2.4%, and a quarter-point increase on Sept. 16 would be the first Federal Reserve rate hike since July 2023.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in August, quadrupling July's 0.1% increase as consumer prices held at a 3.4% annual rate — above the 3.3% forecasters had projected the day before. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.3% on the month while slowing to 2.4% over the past year. Following the data release, interest-rate futures priced in a greater than 80% chance of a quarter-point rate increase at the Federal Reserve's Sept. 16 meeting.
What next. The Federal Open Market Committee convenes for its two-day policy meeting on Sept. 15, with a formal interest-rate decision scheduled for Wednesday, Sept. 16. Nearly half of Fed policymakers had already signaled support for raising rates again.
What a quarter-point hike would cost a household
- The benchmark federal funds target range moves to 3.75%–4.00% — and credit-card and home-equity rates, which track it directly, follow within weeks.
- If lenders pass the full increase through, a new $400,000 30-year mortgage costs about $65 more a month — roughly $24,000 more over the life of the loan.
- Inflation-adjusted hourly earnings already fell 0.3% over the year, extending real wage declines to five straight months.
Ongoing1 earlier update
This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 11.
- Houthis capture Yemen's Mokha from Saudi-backed forces 46 miles from Bab el-Mandeb
- UpdateHouthi forces captured Mokha and Perim island in the 28-kilometer Bab el-Mandeb strait. — this issue
Saudi Arabia shut its 7-million-barrel-per-day East-West pipeline after drone strikes from Iraq.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman asked for direct air strikes on the Houthis. Donald Trump turned down the request, offering intelligence and targeting help instead.
Catch up
On Sept. 9, Houthi missiles and drones struck 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 people and shutting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery.
What this offensive secured along the Red Sea
- The offensive seized 130 kilometers of coastline. It marks the largest Houthi land gain since the 2022 truce.
- Houthi leaders declared sea lanes open to merchant ships. They barred only Saudi vessels.
- About 200 American troops remain in the region. They provide non-combat targeting help.
Related reading
The Gulf's chokepoint is edging back open under fire while the Red Sea's gate changes hands.
The strike on the East–West pipeline — Riyadh's 7-million-barrel-a-day bypass around both straits — set fires along the line.
Read more about: White House considers using the Defense Production Act to expand oil-refining capacity
Washington's answer to the same supply squeeze: emergency powers for domestic refining.
Quick bites5
North Korea launched ballistic missiles following five-day US, South Korea, and Japan drills
NBC NEWSPacific Command said the launches from Wonsan posed no threat to US soil or allies.
Exercise and warning details
- The launches followed the conclusion of Freedom Edge, a five-day trilateral military exercise.
- Kim Song Gi (Defense Minister, North Korea) warned during the drills that Pyongyang would take strong countermeasures.
CIA declassified 71 presidential briefings warning Clinton and Bush of al Qaeda attacks.
CBS NEWSThe reports warned Bill Clinton and George Bush of plane hijackings, but had no set dates or targets.
Key warnings in the briefings
- September 1998: Briefings warned al Qaeda might fly a bomb-packed plane into a US city.
- December 1998: Briefings said two bin Laden men slipped past airport checks in a New York test run.
House schedules vote next week on authorizing 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers
THE HILLRussia-Ukraine warThe House Rules Committee set Monday consideration for the White House-backed measure, though some House Democrats oppose granting Donald Trump excessive tariff authority.
Behind the vote
- The Senate approved the legislation in August with overwhelming bipartisan support.
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy (President, Ukraine) urged immediate action on Friday, stating that sanctions must be strong.
Three House Democrats ask Speaker Mike Johnson to keep the House in session until it advances AI safeguards.
AXIOSJohnson pointed to industry discussions in early winter, leaving three competing safeguard bills without scheduled floor votes.
Representatives Sam Liccardo (Rep-D California), George Whitesides (Rep-D California), and Lori Trahan (Rep-D Massachusetts) urged House Speaker Mike Johnson (Rep-R Louisiana) to keep the chamber in session until it advances bipartisan artificial intelligence safeguards.
The demand. Their circulating letter garnered only three signatures, warning that lawmakers "cannot disagree about the imperative for Congress to act" following public extinction warnings from former Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon.
The pushback. Republican leaders declined to cancel recess or schedule floor votes, with Nathaniel Moran (Rep-R Texas) arguing policymakers should allow the sector to flourish while deliberately mitigating risks.
What next. Johnson said he wants AI companies to discuss consensus guardrails at the start of winter, leaving three competing statutory frameworks without calendar dates.
What the three competing safeguard bills would mandate
- The bipartisan AI Kill Switch Act requires covered advanced models to retain human-controlled mechanisms to slow, suspend, or shut down operations.
- The bipartisan FRONTIER Act establishes a national risk-based framework for developing and deploying advanced systems.
- Legislation planned by Bernie Sanders (Sen-I Vermont) and Greg Casar (Rep-D Texas) halts advanced AI development and bans superintelligence.
A 3-0 D.C. Circuit panel ruled the Energy Department lacked authority to keep Michigan's 64-year-old J.H. Campbell coal plant open.
PBS NEWSHOURExtended operation had cost ratepayers $259 million since state regulators approved its May 2025 retirement.
A unanimous three-judge D.C. Circuit panel ruled Friday, Sept. 11, that the Energy Department exceeded its authority by ordering the West Olive coal plant to stay online. The judges held that Section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act (a temporary emergency provision for sudden power shortfalls) cannot override an orderly retirement vetted by regional grid operators.
“ essentially a narrow, last-resort backstop.”Judge Cornelia Pillard
Where it stands. Plant owner Consumers Energy said the facility will keep running through Nov. 14 under a subsequent 90-day federal order while the administration decides whether to seek an en banc rehearing or appeal to the Supreme Court.
What the emergency plant orders cost and cover nationwide
- Nearly $1 billion in total ratepayer costs across all federal emergency plant directives.
- One dual-fuel oil-and-gas facility in Pennsylvania also forced to remain online.
Supreme Court weighs letting USPS enforce blocked mail-ballot rules ahead of November
THE ATLANTICUpdate2026 midtermsTHE ATLANTIC: Justice Department appeals after judge blocks USPS from rejecting noncompliant mail ballots for 14 days
The rules require federal approval of envelope designs, barcodes and voter-list uploads, but the Postal Service said on Sept. 3 that the federal portal is not yet online.
[PREVIOUSLY]
- Aug. 26 — A federal judge permitted USPS to publish its mail-ballot rule after the Supreme Court lifted an earlier nationwide block 6-3.
- Aug. 27 — 24 states and D.C. sued in Boston to block the postal restrictions, alleging USPS lacks authority over mail ballots.
- Aug. 29 — A Boston judge blocked USPS from rejecting noncompliant mail ballots for 14 days, prompting a Justice Department appeal.
Implementation issues:
- Election-law scholar Rick Hasen warned that imposing the rules shortly before the election could cause mass disenfranchisement.
Lower courts blocked requirements for envelope approvals, barcodes and voter-list uploads.
Justice Department orders 29 states and D.C. to preserve 2024 election records
ABC NEWS2026 midtermsABC NEWS: Justice Department orders 29 states and D.C. to preserve 2024 election records
A department letter warned Utah Lieutenant Governor Deidre Henderson that she was under investigation, though Civil Rights Division head Harmeet Dhillon defended the notices as standard litigation holds.
- The Justice Department is seeking statewide voter files that include addresses, birth dates, driver's-license numbers, and partial Social Security digits.
- Notices sent across 29 states and the District of Columbia warn that failing to retain files carries potential civil or criminal penalties.
Federal lawsuits seek statewide voter databases including birth dates, driver's licenses, and partial Social Security numbers.
Elections22 races
The midterms · 52 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 88%, Kalshi 86%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 53%, Kalshi 49%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 2.0pp gap / 4.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 88% | 85% | 52% | 48% |
| 6 days ago | 87% | 85% | 52% | 47% |
| 5 days ago | 87% | 85% | 53% | 48% |
| 4 days ago | 88% | 85% | 53% | 47% |
| 3 days ago | 87% | 85% | 53% | 48% |
| 2 days ago | 88% | 85% | 53% | 47% |
| yesterday | 88% | 86% | 53% | 48% |
| today | 88% | 86% | 53% | 49% |
3 closest races
jTexas Senate
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).
A dead heat — the two sides are priced within two points of each other, after the Republican side lost about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 51.5%, Kalshi 50.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 48.5%, Kalshi 49.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: James Talarico 51% · Ken Paxton 49%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
James Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$486K50.5%Kalshi4.8M contracts · 50%/51%49.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppKen Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$575K50.5%Kalshi6.7M contracts · 49%/50%53.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT. Day James Talarico · Polymarket James Talarico · Kalshi Ken Paxton · Polymarket Ken Paxton · Kalshi 7 days ago 50.5% 49.0% 50.5% 53.0% 6 days ago 50.5% 49.0% 50.5% 51.0% 5 days ago 50.5% 49.0% 50.5% 51.0% 4 days ago 50.5% 47.0% 50.5% 52.0% 3 days ago 51.0% 47.0% 49.5% 53.0% 2 days ago 51.5% 50.0% 48.5% 51.0% yesterday 51.5% 51.0% 48.5% 51.0% today 51.5% 50.5% 48.5% 49.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
nOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 51.5%, Kalshi 52.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 47.5%, Kalshi 48.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 52% · Jon Husted 48%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$171K55.5%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 52%/53%54.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-4.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$129K43.5%Kalshi1.6M contracts · 48%/49%47.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+4.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 55.5% 54.0% 43.5% 47.0% 6 days ago 56.5% 53.0% 43.5% 47.0% 5 days ago 56.5% 54.0% 43.5% 47.0% 4 days ago 54.5% 54.0% 45.5% 48.0% 3 days ago 51.5% 53.0% 48.5% 48.0% 2 days ago 51.5% 51.0% 47.5% 50.0% yesterday 51.5% 53.0% 47.5% 49.0% today 51.5% 52.5% 47.5% 48.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
qNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 56.0%, Kalshi 55.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 56% · Aaron Ford 44%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$82.3K60.5%Kalshi245K contracts · 55%/56%60.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-4.5ppAaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.8K39.5%Kalshi500K contracts · 43%/44%41.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+4.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT. Day Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi 7 days ago 60.5% 60.0% 39.5% 41.0% 6 days ago 58.5% 61.0% 39.5% 42.0% 5 days ago 60.5% 61.0% 39.0% 42.0% 4 days ago 59.5% 61.0% 40.5% 41.0% 3 days ago 57.0% 61.0% 41.5% 40.0% 2 days ago 54.0% 62.0% 44.5% 40.0% yesterday 56.0% 56.0% 43.5% 43.0% today 56.0% 55.5% 43.5% 43.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 19 races
Senate8 of 10
kAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 66.5%, Kalshi 66.0%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 34.0%, Kalshi 35.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 66% · Dan Sullivan 35%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$252K63.5%Kalshi85.5K contracts · 65%/67%66.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+3.0ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$144K36.5%Kalshi75.0K contracts · 34%/37%—venue gap—7-day move-2.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 63.5% 66% 36.5% — 6 days ago 63.5% 66% 36.5% — 5 days ago 63.5% 65% 37.5% 36.0% 4 days ago 63.5% 66% 36.0% 37.0% 3 days ago 66.5% 65% 34.0% 37.0% 2 days ago 66.5% 66% 34.0% 37.0% yesterday 66.5% 65% 34.0% 37.0% today 66.5% 66% 34.0% 35.5% sGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.2pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 91.50%, Kalshi 92.65%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 7.60%, Kalshi 7.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 93% · Mike Collins 7.5%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$51.6K93.5%Kalshi363K contracts · 92%/93%93.4%venue gap0.1pp7-day move-2.0ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$78.7K7.25%Kalshi875K contracts · 7.0%/7.9%7.70%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+0.4ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 93.5% 93.40% 7.25% 7.70% 6 days ago 92.0% 93.40% 7.70% 7.80% 5 days ago 93.5% 92.20% 6.80% 7.90% 4 days ago 92.5% 93.40% 6.75% 6.90% 3 days ago 92.5% 93.00% 8.00% 7.80% 2 days ago 91.5% 92.30% 7.60% 7.70% yesterday 91.5% 92.30% 7.60% 7.80% today 91.5% 92.65% 7.60% 7.45% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
lIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 61.0%, Kalshi 61.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 38.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 61% · Josh Turek 39%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$136K64.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 61%/62%65.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-3.5ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$132K35.5%Kalshi1.6M contracts · 38%/39%35.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+4.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 64.5% 65.0% 35.5% 35.0% 6 days ago 65.5% 65.0% 35.0% 36.0% 5 days ago 65.5% 65.0% 34.5% 37.0% 4 days ago 65.5% 65.0% 34.5% 36.0% 3 days ago 66.0% 66.0% 34.5% 36.0% 2 days ago 61.0% 66.0% 39.5% 36.0% yesterday 61.0% 67.0% 39.5% 34.0% today 61.0% 61.5% 39.5% 38.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
iMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 67.0%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 32.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 68% · Susan Collins 32%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$803K69.5%Kalshi2.6M contracts · 66%/68%69.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$536K30.5%Kalshi2.8M contracts · 32%/33%32.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 69.5% 69% 30.5% 32.0% 6 days ago 70.5% 69% 29.5% 32.0% 5 days ago 72.5% 69% 28.5% 32.0% 4 days ago 71.5% 68% 28.5% 32.0% 3 days ago 70.5% 68% 28.5% 33.0% 2 days ago 70.5% 68% 28.5% 33.0% yesterday 70.5% 68% 28.5% 33.0% today 70.5% 67% 28.5% 32.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
mMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 62.5%, Kalshi 62.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 37.0%, Kalshi 39.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 63% · Mike Rogers 39%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$391K65.5%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 62%/63%64.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-3.0ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$318K33.5%Kalshi2.1M contracts · 39%/40%38.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move+3.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 65.5% 64.0% 33.5% 38.0% 6 days ago 65.5% 64.0% 34.0% 37.0% 5 days ago 65.5% 64.0% 34.5% 36.0% 4 days ago 65.0% 64.0% 35.0% 36.0% 3 days ago 64.5% 64.0% 36.5% 37.0% 2 days ago 62.5% 63.0% 37.0% 36.0% yesterday 62.5% 64.0% 37.0% 37.0% today 62.5% 62.5% 37.0% 39.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
tNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 68.5%, Kalshi 70.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 70% · Dan Osborn 27%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$108K69.5%Kalshi394K contracts · 70%/71%71.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$41.8K30.5%Kalshi424K contracts · 26%/27%30.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 69.5% 71.0% 30.5% 30.0% 6 days ago 68.5% 71.0% 31.5% 29.0% 5 days ago 68.5% 71.0% 31.5% 29.0% 4 days ago 68.5% 71.0% 31.0% 29.0% 3 days ago 68.5% 74.0% 30.5% 25.0% 2 days ago 68.5% 73.0% 30.5% 27.0% yesterday 68.5% 71.0% 30.5% 27.0% today 68.5% 70.5% 30.5% 26.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
uNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 84.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 15.5%, Kalshi 15.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 84% · John E. Sununu 15%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$70.4K83.5%Kalshi137K contracts · 84%/85%81.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppJohn E. Sununu (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$32.7K17.5%Kalshi258K contracts · 15%/16%19.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago 83.5% 81.0% 17.5% 19.0% 6 days ago 82.5% 82.0% 17.5% 18.0% 5 days ago 82.0% 83.0% 18.5% 19.0% 4 days ago 83.0% 83.0% 17.5% 19.0% 3 days ago 81.0% 83.0% 19.0% 18.0% 2 days ago 82.5% 85.0% 17.5% 17.0% yesterday 83.5% 84.0% 15.5% 16.0% today 83.5% 84.5% 15.5% 15.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
rNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.2pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 92.50%, Kalshi 91.35%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.50%, Kalshi 8.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 91% · Michael Whatley 8.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$45.4K91.5%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 91%/92%91.2%venue gap0.3pp7-day move+1.0ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$61.3K8.5%Kalshi730K contracts · 8.8%/8.9%9.5%venue gap1.0pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 91.5% 91.20% 8.5% 9.50% 6 days ago 91.5% 91.50% 8.5% 9.50% 5 days ago 91.5% 91.10% 8.5% 9.30% 4 days ago 91.5% 91.00% 8.5% 9.20% 3 days ago 92.5% 91.30% 8.5% 9.70% 2 days ago 92.5% 91.00% 8.5% 10.00% yesterday 92.5% 90.90% 8.5% 9.00% today 92.5% 91.35% 8.5% 8.85% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors11 of 12
wAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
Wilson holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: it is down about five points.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 26.0%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.35%, Kalshi 0.15%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 27% · Tom Begich 0.6%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$173K33%Kalshi52.2K contracts · 25%/27%—venue gap—7-day move-5.5ppTom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$159K1.3%Kalshi233K contracts · 0.1%/0.2%—venue gap—7-day move+0.1ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT. Day Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi 7 days ago 33.0% — 1.30% — 6 days ago 32.5% 31% 1.35% — 5 days ago 29.5% 33% 1.35% 0.20% 4 days ago 26.0% 31% 1.35% 0.70% 3 days ago 27.5% 30% 1.35% 0.10% 2 days ago 27.5% 30% 1.35% 0.10% yesterday 27.5% 26% 1.35% 0.10% today 27.5% 26% 1.35% 0.15% yArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.0%, Kalshi 86.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 13%, Kalshi 14%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 87% · Andy Biggs 14%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.8K86.5%Kalshi308K contracts · 86%/87%87.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+0.5ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$36.7K13.5%Kalshi246K contracts · 13%/15%14.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 14% 6 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 14% 5 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 15% 4 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 15% 3 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 13% 2 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 13% yesterday 87.0% 87.0% 13.0% 15% today 87.0% 86.5% 13.0% 14% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
acFlorida governor
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 80% · David Jolly 20%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$29.1K81.5%Kalshi805K contracts · 79%/80%81.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppDavid Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$33.1K19%Kalshi334K contracts · 20%/21%20%venue gap1.0pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT. Day Byron Donalds · Polymarket Byron Donalds · Kalshi David Jolly · Polymarket David Jolly · Kalshi 7 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 19.0% 20.0% 6 days ago 81.5% 80.0% 19.0% 20.0% 5 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 18.5% 19.0% 4 days ago 82.5% 81.0% 18.5% 19.0% 3 days ago 81.5% 82.0% 19.0% 18.0% 2 days ago 81.5% 82.0% 19.0% 19.0% yesterday 81.5% 82.0% 19.5% 20.0% today 81.5% 79.5% 19.5% 20.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
pGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 42.0%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 57% · Rick Jackson 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$35.9K57.5%Kalshi296K contracts · 56%/57%57.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppRick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$40.5K42.5%Kalshi393K contracts · 43%/44%43.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT. Day Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi 7 days ago 57.5% 57.0% 42.5% 43.0% 6 days ago 57.0% 56.0% 42.5% 44.0% 5 days ago 56.0% 57.0% 43.5% 44.0% 4 days ago 56.5% 57.0% 43.5% 43.0% 3 days ago 56.5% 56.0% 42.5% 44.0% 2 days ago 56.5% 57.0% 42.0% 44.0% yesterday 57.5% 56.0% 42.0% 44.0% today 57.5% 56.5% 42.0% 43.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
vIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 77.0%, Kalshi 77.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 23.5%, Kalshi 24.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 77% · Zach Lahn 24%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$33.8K74.5%Kalshi333K contracts · 77%/78%77.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+2.5ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$44.9K25.5%Kalshi323K contracts · 23%/25%23.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 74.5% 77.0% 25.5% 23% 6 days ago 74.5% 76.0% 25.5% 23% 5 days ago 74.5% 76.0% 25.0% 24% 4 days ago 75.5% 76.0% 23.5% 24% 3 days ago 76.5% 77.0% 24.5% 24% 2 days ago 77.0% 78.0% 23.0% 22% yesterday 77.0% 78.0% 23.5% 22% today 77.0% 77.5% 23.5% 24% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
xMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 92.0%, Kalshi 89.5%; John James (R): Polymarket 7.50%, Kalshi 9.55%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 91% · John James 8.4%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$50.0K90.0%Kalshi73.9K contracts · 88%/91%92.2%venue gap2.2pp7-day move+2.0ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$156K11%Kalshi134K contracts · 9.1%/10%10%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-3.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 90.0% 92.2% 11.0% 10.00% 6 days ago 89.5% 90.1% 11.0% 12.00% 5 days ago 90.0% 88.0% 11.0% 12.00% 4 days ago 92.0% 90.0% 8.5% 12.00% 3 days ago 92.0% 90.0% 8.5% 11.00% 2 days ago 92.5% 92.9% 7.5% 11.00% yesterday 92.0% 88.0% 7.5% 12.00% today 92.0% 89.5% 7.5% 9.55% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aaNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.3pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.50%, Kalshi 92.15%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 6.50%, Kalshi 8.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.3pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 92% · Bruce Blakeman 8.3%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$49.7K93.5%Kalshi325K contracts · 92%/92%93.9%venue gap0.4pp7-day move+1.0ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$65.2K5.0%Kalshi1000K contracts · 8.1%/8.8%6.9%venue gap1.9pp7-day move+1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 93.5% 93.90% 5.0% 6.90% 6 days ago 94.5% 93.20% 5.0% 8.90% 5 days ago 93.5% 93.10% 5.5% 7.80% 4 days ago 94.5% 93.20% 5.5% 9.60% 3 days ago 94.5% 92.20% 5.5% 9.40% 2 days ago 94.5% 92.10% 6.5% 8.70% yesterday 94.5% 92.20% 6.5% 9.30% today 94.5% 92.15% 6.5% 8.45% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
hOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 56% · Vivek Ramaswamy 45%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$90.3K56.5%Kalshi755K contracts · 56%/57%58.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$108K43.5%Kalshi822K contracts · 44%/45%43.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 56.5% 58.0% 43.5% 43.0% 6 days ago 56.5% 57.0% 43.0% 43.0% 5 days ago 55.5% 59.0% 43.5% 43.0% 4 days ago 55.5% 57.0% 45.5% 45.0% 3 days ago 55.5% 55.0% 45.5% 47.0% 2 days ago 55.5% 57.0% 45.5% 44.0% yesterday 55.5% 57.0% 45.5% 45.0% today 55.5% 56.5% 45.5% 44.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
abPennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.4pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 97.05%, Kalshi 96.55%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.35%, Kalshi 3.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.4pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 97% · Stacy Garrity 3.6%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$7.5K96.75%Kalshi99.5K contracts · 96%/98%—venue gap—7-day move+0.3ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$41.8K2.2%Kalshi393K contracts · 3.3%/4.2%4.9%venue gap2.7pp7-day move+0.2ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 96.75% — 2.20% 4.90% 6 days ago 96.65% 97.40% 2.15% 2.60% 5 days ago 96.80% 97.50% 1.85% 4.30% 4 days ago 96.40% 97.50% 1.80% 4.00% 3 days ago 96.80% 96.80% 2.25% 2.60% 2 days ago 97.10% 95.50% 2.30% 4.50% yesterday 97.05% 95.10% 2.35% 4.20% today 97.05% 96.55% 2.35% 3.75% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
zTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.6pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 80.85%, Kalshi 82.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 18.0%, Kalshi 18.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.6pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 82% · Gina Hinojosa 18%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$40.9K81.2%Kalshi179K contracts · 82%/83%83.0%venue gap1.8pp7-day move-0.4ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$52.4K18.5%Kalshi678K contracts · 18%/19%18.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 81.20% 83.0% 18.5% 18.0% 6 days ago 82.10% 83.0% 18.0% 19.0% 5 days ago 81.90% 80.0% 18.0% 21.0% 4 days ago 82.55% 84.0% 18.0% 18.0% 3 days ago 82.10% 83.0% 18.0% 16.0% 2 days ago 80.85% 82.0% 18.0% 18.0% yesterday 80.85% 84.0% 18.0% 18.0% today 80.85% 82.5% 18.0% 18.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
oWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 82.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 17.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 81% · Tom Tiffany 19%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$310K82.5%Kalshi456K contracts · 80%/81%79.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move0.0ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$267K17.5%Kalshi542K contracts · 19%/20%20.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 82.5% 79.0% 17.5% 20.0% 6 days ago 82.5% 79.0% 17.5% 20.0% 5 days ago 83.5% 79.0% 17.5% 21.0% 4 days ago 83.5% 80.0% 17.5% 20.0% 3 days ago 82.5% 81.0% 17.5% 20.0% 2 days ago 82.5% 80.0% 17.5% 20.0% yesterday 82.5% 82.0% 17.5% 19.0% today 82.5% 80.5% 17.5% 19.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 11, 8:49 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
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