News news5 stories
Ongoing4 earlier updates5 days
This story has run 5 times over 5 days, starting Sep 12.
- Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the year, lifting September Fed rate hike odds above 80%
- Trump threatens trade cutoff with some nations unless Fed lowers rates despite 3.4% inflation
- Update10-year Treasury yield hit 5.014% Monday, Sept. 14, first time since October 2023
- Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark rate a quarter point on Wednesday, Sept. 16, its first hike in three years.
- UpdateFed raises its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since July 2023 — this issue
Trump called for rates of "1%, or less" — against the new 3.75%-4% range — and said the blame belongs to the Fed's board, not to the chair he picked, Kevin Warsh.
The decision. The Federal Reserve raised its target range for short-term interest rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, Sept. 16, to 3.75%-4%. That is the first increase since July 2023, and the first big move by Chair Kevin Warsh. Prices are rising 3.4% a year — the Labor Department's August reading, unchanged from July — well above the 2% pace the Fed aims for. Core prices, which strip out food and fuel, rose 2.4% over the year. The vote was unanimous — Warsh himself voted for the increase. It came seven weeks before the midterm elections, after months of public demands from Donald Trump that the Fed cut instead.
Trump's answer. On Truth Social, he said rates "should be 1%, or less" — roughly three points under the 3.75%-4% the Fed just set. Speaking to reporters after landing in North Carolina, he aimed past his own appointee: "I'm relying on Kevin, but he's got a very tough board."
Where it stands. The new target range is 3.75%-4%, up from 3.5%-3.75%. Traders in interest-rate markets had already bet heavily that the increase was coming.
Catch up
- Sep. 11 — August consumer prices came in at 3.4% for the year and 0.4% for the month, up from 0.1% in July, with gasoline doing most of the monthly work.
- Sep. 12 — Core inflation eased to 2.4%, but markets moved past 80% odds on a Sept. 16 hike.
- Sep. 14 — Trump threatened to cut off trade with some countries unless the Fed lowered rates.
- Sep. 16 — Swaps traders priced a 90% chance of a quarter-point increase hours before the meeting ended.
3 earlier issues
Ongoing1 earlier update14 days
This story has run 2 times over 14 days, starting Sep 3.
- UpdateHouse panel unanimously advances bill making data centers pay their own grid-upgrade costs
- House passes the Ratepayer Protection Act, telling state regulators to weigh making data centers pay their own power and grid costs — this issue
The bill passed with votes from both parties on Wednesday, Sept. 16, and now needs the Senate; it does not itself cap anyone's electric bill.
The House passed the Ratepayer Protection Act on Wednesday, Sept. 16. The bill would push state utility regulators to consider rules that make data centers cover the cost of the power lines, substations and generation their facilities require, instead of spreading those costs across everyone else's monthly bills. The vote was 417-3.
What next. The measure goes to the Senate, which has not scheduled a vote.
Catch up
The House energy committee advanced the bill unanimously on Thursday, Sept. 3 — no member voted against it. State utility commissions, not Congress, keep the final say over rates either way.
Ongoing7 earlier updates8 days
This story has run 8 times over 8 days, starting Sep 9.
- Houthi missiles and drones hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and halting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery
- Houthis capture Yemen's Mokha from Saudi-backed forces 46 miles from Bab el-Mandeb
- UpdateHouthi forces captured Mokha and Perim island in the 28-kilometer Bab el-Mandeb strait.
- UpdateA day after the Bab el-Mandeb capture, maritime monitors have recorded no new transit halts
- UpdateSaudi Arabia shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline, oil rises more than $3 with 4% of supply at risk
- UpdateHouthis seize two more Red Sea islands as Saudi pipeline faces 3-to-5-week outage
- UpdateSaudi Arabia suspends loadings at its last open oil terminal; September cargoes cancelled
- Attacks on Saudi export pipeline push WTI crude to $107.02 a barrel, a 30-day high — this issue
Beijing has spent the Iran war selling oil out of its own reserves instead of buying more on the world market, which held prices down for everyone.
Strikes by Yemen's Houthi rebels on a Saudi export pipeline have cut the flow of crude reaching the kingdom's loading terminals, and buyers bid up every barrel still moving. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark grade, settled at $107.02 a barrel on Tuesday, Sept. 15 — the highest close in the Energy Department’s last 30 trading days — up from $77.33 on Aug. 4.
China has spent the Iran war absorbing the shock by selling oil out of its own reserves rather than buying more on the world market, which held prices down for everyone.
The U.S. Embassy in Riyadh told Americans on Wednesday, Sept. 16, to reconsider travel to the kingdom.
Still open. How much of the line's capacity is out, and for how long, Riyadh has not said. Without that, how much of the six-week move in crude the outage explains is not known.
Ongoing2 earlier updates5 days
This story has run 3 times over 5 days, starting Sep 12.
- House schedules vote next week on authorizing 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers
- UpdateThe House voted 214-211 to advance 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil
- UpdateCongress sends Trump a bill letting him impose 100% tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil — this issue
Named for the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, the bill also requires sanctions on Russian officials, defense contractors and shadow-fleet tankers.
The vote. The House passed the Russia sanctions package on Wednesday, Sept. 16, the last step before President Trump's signature after more than a year of stalling in Congress.
The tariff lever. The bill lets Trump put tariffs of up to 100% on any country that keeps buying Russian energy — a border tax on that country's goods coming into the United States. The target is India and China, the two largest customers for Moscow's crude.
The mandatory list. It also makes a set of sanctions mandatory rather than optional: on senior Russian officials, on foreign firms helping the Russian defense industry, and on the aging "shadow fleet" of tankers that moves oil around existing price caps (limits Western countries set on what buyers may pay for Russian oil).
The party split. Most Democrats voted no — “What we’re not for is giving more tariff authority to this president,” Rep. Richard Neal of Massachusetts said during the debate, after Republicans in the Rules Committee refused to strip the tariff power or narrow it. Fifty-eight Democrats crossed over anyway, breaking with Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Republicans carried the rest.
What next. It goes to Trump's desk; he is expected to sign it, and the tariff authority is his to use or not use.
Catch up
- Aug. 28 — A Russian drone hit an ammunition depot in Myla near Kyiv; 38 died and four went missing.
- Sept. 5-6 — Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner carried a U.S. peace proposal to Putin in Moscow, then to Zelensky in Kyiv; Putin ordered a 72-hour halt to strikes on the two capitals.
- Sept. 9 — Russia resumed strikes on Kyiv as soon as the pause lapsed, killing seven; Trump and Putin then spoke for an hour.
- Sept. 13 — Putin warned that European troops in Ukraine would mean war with Russia, and Moscow rejected European peace plans.
- Sept. 16 — The House voted 214-211 to bring the sanctions bill to the floor, with two Democrats saving the rule after two Republicans defected.
A stacked bar of the House vote: 214 yes and 211 no, 425 votes cast, so 50 percent of those voting said yes.
The House voted 214–211
3-vote margin, out of 425 votes cast.
The numbers
| Votes | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| House roll call | 214 votes | 211 votes |
Frank Pallone (D-N.J.), the ranking Democrat on House Energy and Commerce, said he has never used the tools and compared oversight to regulating heroin.
Interviews published Wednesday, Sept. 16, found that more than two dozen lawmakers and governors do not use artificial intelligence. Most said they have never opened a generative tool. Others tried one once or twice, leaving technical tracking entirely to staff.
The defense. Pallone's office argued that lawmakers do not need personal experience to write rules. The spokesman said Congress often regulates street drugs like heroin without members using them.
The pushback. Tech experts counter that setting standards takes hands-on testing. Without direct use, lawmakers cannot evaluate model weights, compute caps, or false answers. One House Democrat called the gap absurd.
Where it stands. Congress has passed no federal safety law for artificial intelligence. Committee bills remain stalled, leaving rules to state laws and executive orders.
Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), 70, answered “I don’t think I do” when asked whether he uses it; Rep. Bobby Scott (D-Va.), 79, the ranking member on Education and the Workforce, said he uses it every day.
Related reading
Rand Paul (R-Ky.) used a procedural objection on Wednesday, Sept. 16, to halt John Kennedy (R-La.)'s AI Emergency Button Act.
The Treasury Department confirmed bilateral meetings in New York ahead of the planned Sept. 24 summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Washington.
Quick bites7
House votes by unanimous consent to hold Leon Black in contempt of Congress
POLITICOBlack refused to sit for a deposition or turn over documents under two Oversight Committee subpoenas — one for the deposition, one for Epstein-related documents. The contempt referral passed by unanimous consent, with no member objecting; it now goes to the Justice Department, which decides on its own whether to bring criminal charges.
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times over 13 days, starting Sep 4.
- Leon Black skipped his Epstein deposition and sued House Oversight to void the subpoenas
- House votes by unanimous consent to hold Leon Black in contempt of Congress — this issue
EU chief proposes making Canada the bloc's first associate member
AXIOSTariffs and tradeEU chief Ursula von der Leyen wants to open talks on associate membership for Canada, she said Wednesday, Sept. 16, in Brussels beside Prime Minister Mark Carney. Ottawa is looking to Europe after a year of U.S. tariffs and Trump's talk of making Canada the 51st state. Canada cannot join outright: EU treaties limit full membership to European states. She did not say what rights or duties the lesser tier would carry. Trump answered Thursday evening: “If it's a hostile act, I will put very serious tariffs or stop trading with Europe on many things,” he told reporters. “If it's a bad intention, we'll put very heavy tariffs on Europe.”
White House chief of staff Susie Wiles says she is cancer free six months after her breast cancer diagnosis
THE HILLWiles, 69, wrote on X on Wednesday, Sept. 16, that her pathology results came back clear, six months after she disclosed an early-stage breast cancer diagnosis in March and kept working through treatment.
Family of Texas woman who died of preeclampsia sues AG Ken Paxton over denied abortion
THE HILLTierra Walker was 37 when preeclampsia killed her in 2024 — seizures, then blood clots. On Wednesday, Sept. 16, her family sued. Named in the suit: the doctors who treated her, and Attorney General Ken Paxton, whose office enforces the state's abortion ban and has moved against doctors who use its medical exception. The suit says the ban left those doctors unwilling to end the pregnancy. The claims are untested; no defendant has responded.
Trump donor Harold Hamm's Continental Resources signs deal to drill 126,000 acres in Venezuela
THE HILLContinental signed a memorandum of understanding — a framework, not a final contract — with Venezuela's state-run oil company PDVSA on Wednesday, Sept. 16, to explore and produce in a 126,000-acre field Venezuela has never developed. The block is about 200 square miles. PDVSA remains under U.S. sanctions, so any drilling would need a license from Treasury's sanctions office. Hamm is among Trump's closest allies in the U.S. oil industry.
Fifth Circuit throws out EPA ban on toxic paint stripper methylene chloride
THE HILLA unanimous panel ruled Sept. 15 that the agency cannot ban a chemical on uncertainty about leftover risk — it has to identify an unreasonable risk for each use, and it wrongly assumed workers would skip protective equipment.
How dangerous it actually is: EPA calls methylene chloride “likely to be carcinogenic to humans” and counts at least 88 deaths from short-term exposure since 1980 — the fumes can kill in a single stripping job, and long-term exposure is tied to kidney and liver damage.
What the rule did: the 2024 rule barred every consumer use and most industrial and commercial uses of the solvent — consumer paint removers had already been banned in 2019, and that ban stays — the court vacated only the 2024 expansion. The Trump administration defended the rule in court while saying it would revisit parts of it; health advocates called the ruling a win for the chemical industry at the expense of workers.
Senate Agriculture Committee advances five-year farm bill 12-11 after Mitch McConnell returns
THE HILLMcConnell (R-Ky.) cast the deciding vote along party lines after a 90-day absence following a June fall. The bill failed 10-11 on Aug. 6 when McConnell and Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) were out — both were back Wednesday, and Tuberville cast the 12th vote.
What the bill is: the Agricultural Act of 2026 is the five-year package that funds crop insurance, farm supports and food aid — the first since 2018, with the current extension expiring Sept. 30. The Congressional Budget Office puts the mandatory baseline at $1.374 trillion over a decade, $985 billion of it nutrition programs; SNAP is by far the largest title.
The fight: Democrats on the panel oppose a provision shifting some SNAP costs to states with high payment-error rates. Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.) offered a one-year delay and was rejected; with Democrats united against it, the bill will likely need 60 votes on the floor, the Courier Journal reports — Republicans hold 53. The House passed its version in April.
Elections22 races
The midterms · 47 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 89%, Kalshi 89%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 60%, Kalshi 56%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 0.0pp gap / 4.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 88% | 85% | 53% | 47% |
| 6 days ago | 87% | 86% | 54% | 48% |
| 5 days ago | 87% | 86% | 53% | 49% |
| 4 days ago | 88% | 85% | 54% | 49% |
| 3 days ago | 87% | 86% | 59% | 49% |
| 2 days ago | 89% | 86% | 59% | 52% |
| yesterday | 89% | 86% | 60% | 55% |
| today | 89% | 89% | 60% | 56% |
3 closest races
nOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 46.0%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 54% · Jon Husted 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$216K51.5%Kalshi1.6M contracts · 53%/54%51.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+3.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$161K47.5%Kalshi1.7M contracts · 46%/47%50.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 51.5% 51.0% 47.5% 50.0% 6 days ago 51.5% 53.0% 48.5% 49.0% 5 days ago 51.5% 53.0% 47.0% 48.0% 4 days ago 53.5% 53.0% 46.5% 47.0% 3 days ago 56.5% 52.0% 44.5% 48.0% 2 days ago 56.5% 54.0% 43.5% 47.0% yesterday 54.5% 55.0% 46.0% 46.0% today 54.5% 53.5% 46.0% 46.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
jTexas Senate
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).
The Democratic side holds a narrow lead after gaining about four points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate
Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 56.5%, Kalshi 52.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: James Talarico 53% · Ken Paxton 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
James Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$568K51.5%Kalshi5.2M contracts · 52%/53%50.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+5.0ppKen Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$721K48.5%Kalshi7.1M contracts · 46%/47%51.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-4.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT. Day James Talarico · Polymarket James Talarico · Kalshi Ken Paxton · Polymarket Ken Paxton · Kalshi 7 days ago 51.5% 50.0% 48.5% 51.0% 6 days ago 51.5% 51.0% 48.5% 51.0% 5 days ago 49.5% 51.0% 49.5% 50.0% 4 days ago 52.5% 51.0% 48.5% 51.0% 3 days ago 55.5% 51.0% 45.5% 50.0% 2 days ago 56.5% 52.0% 44.5% 50.0% yesterday 56.5% 54.0% 44.5% 47.0% today 56.5% 52.5% 44.5% 46.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
qNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 55.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 55% · Aaron Ford 45%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$111K54%Kalshi257K contracts · 55%/56%62%venue gap8.0pp7-day move-0.5ppAaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$44.5K44.5%Kalshi505K contracts · 44%/45%40.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT. Day Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi 7 days ago 54.0% 62.0% 44.5% 40.0% 6 days ago 43.0% 56.0% 47.5% 43.0% 5 days ago 51.0% 55.0% 49.0% 44.0% 4 days ago 48.0% 55.0% 50.0% 45.0% 3 days ago 46.0% 56.0% 48.0% 45.0% 2 days ago 53.5% 54.0% 46.5% 46.0% yesterday 53.5% 55.0% 45.5% 46.0% today 53.5% 55.5% 45.5% 44.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 19 races
Senate8 of 10
kAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 66.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 33.5%, Kalshi 33.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 67% · Dan Sullivan 34%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$278K66.5%Kalshi90.8K contracts · 67%/68%66.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$156K34%Kalshi75.8K contracts · 32%/35%—venue gap—7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 66.5% 66.0% 34.0% — 6 days ago 67.5% 65.0% 33.5% 37.0% 5 days ago 67.5% 66.0% 33.5% 37.0% 4 days ago 66.5% 67.0% 33.5% 37.0% 3 days ago 65.5% 68.0% 34.5% 37.0% 2 days ago 65.5% 68.0% 34.5% 37.0% yesterday 66.5% 66.0% 33.5% 37.0% today 66.5% 67.5% 33.5% 33.5% sGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.7pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.0%, Kalshi 93.4%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 7.0%, Kalshi 6.3%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.7pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 93% · Mike Collins 6.4%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$53.3K91.5%Kalshi387K contracts · 93%/94%92.3%venue gap0.8pp7-day move+1.5ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$79.5K7.6%Kalshi913K contracts · 5.8%/6.8%7.7%venue gap0.1pp7-day move-0.6ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 91.5% 92.3% 7.60% 7.7% 6 days ago 92.5% 92.3% 7.10% 7.8% 5 days ago 92.5% 92.3% 7.50% 7.9% 4 days ago 93.5% 92.3% 6.45% 6.8% 3 days ago 92.5% 93.4% 6.65% 7.5% 2 days ago 93.0% 93.5% 7.10% 7.0% yesterday 93.0% 93.8% 7.00% 6.6% today 93.0% 93.4% 7.00% 6.3% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
lIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 61.0%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 39.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 61% · Josh Turek 39%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$179K61%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 60%/62%66%venue gap5.0pp7-day move-0.5ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$178K39.5%Kalshi1.6M contracts · 38%/40%36.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 61.0% 66% 39.5% 36% 6 days ago 61.0% 67% 39.0% 34% 5 days ago 60.5% 62% 39.5% 40% 4 days ago 56.5% 62% 42.5% 38% 3 days ago 57.0% 61% 41.5% 39% 2 days ago 57.5% 62% 40.5% 39% yesterday 60.5% 61% 39.5% 39% today 60.5% 61% 39.5% 39% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
iMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 32.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 68% · Susan Collins 32%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$830K70.5%Kalshi2.6M contracts · 67%/68%68.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$563K28.5%Kalshi2.9M contracts · 32%/33%33.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 70.5% 68.0% 28.5% 33.0% 6 days ago 70.5% 68.0% 29.5% 33.0% 5 days ago 70.5% 68.0% 29.5% 33.0% 4 days ago 70.5% 68.0% 29.5% 33.0% 3 days ago 70.5% 66.0% 30.5% 33.0% 2 days ago 70.5% 67.0% 29.5% 35.0% yesterday 70.5% 66.0% 29.5% 35.0% today 70.5% 67.5% 29.5% 32.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
mMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 65%, Kalshi 64%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 34%, Kalshi 36%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 64% · Mike Rogers 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$467K62.5%Kalshi1.4M contracts · 63%/65%63.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+2.5ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$366K37%Kalshi2.2M contracts · 35%/37%36%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 62.5% 63% 37.0% 36% 6 days ago 62.5% 64% 37.0% 37% 5 days ago 59.5% 63% 40.0% 40% 4 days ago 61.5% 63% 39.5% 37% 3 days ago 61.5% 61% 39.5% 41% 2 days ago 66.5% 62% 33.5% 39% yesterday 65.0% 62% 34.5% 39% today 65.0% 64% 34.0% 36% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
tNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead after Osborn gained about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 68% · Dan Osborn 32%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$116K68.5%Kalshi706K contracts · 67%/70%73.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move-1.0ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$71.1K30.5%Kalshi523K contracts · 31%/32%27.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 68.5% 73.0% 30.5% 27.0% 6 days ago 65.0% 71.0% 31.5% 27.0% 5 days ago 66.5% 71.0% 31.5% 27.0% 4 days ago 67.5% 70.0% 32.5% 29.0% 3 days ago 67.5% 70.0% 32.5% 27.0% 2 days ago 67.5% 70.0% 32.5% 30.0% yesterday 67.5% 69.0% 32.5% 31.0% today 67.5% 68.5% 32.5% 31.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
uNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 82.0%, Kalshi 81.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 18.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 82% · John E. Sununu 18%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$75.9K82.5%Kalshi257K contracts · 81%/82%85.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-0.5ppJohn E. Sununu (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$34.9K17.5%Kalshi404K contracts · 18%/19%17.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago 82.5% 85.0% 17.5% 17.0% 6 days ago 83.5% 84.0% 14.5% 16.0% 5 days ago 84.5% 85.0% 15.0% 15.0% 4 days ago 83.5% 85.0% 15.5% 17.0% 3 days ago 80.5% 85.0% 17.5% 16.0% 2 days ago 82.0% 82.0% 18.5% 18.0% yesterday 82.0% 82.0% 18.5% 19.0% today 82.0% 81.5% 18.5% 18.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
rNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.4pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 91.50%, Kalshi 91.95%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.5%, Kalshi 8.3%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 92% · Michael Whatley 8.3%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$47.2K92.5%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 92%/92%91.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$65.9K8.5%Kalshi758K contracts · 7.9%/8.7%9.7%venue gap1.2pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 92.5% 91.00% 8.5% 9.7% 6 days ago 92.5% 90.90% 8.5% 10.0% 5 days ago 92.0% 91.70% 9.0% 9.0% 4 days ago 90.5% 91.20% 10.0% 8.8% 3 days ago 91.5% 92.00% 9.0% 9.0% 2 days ago 91.5% 92.30% 8.5% 8.8% yesterday 91.5% 92.20% 8.5% 8.1% today 91.5% 91.95% 8.5% 8.3% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors11 of 12
wAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
Wilson holds a clear lead after losing about three points in five days.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 25.0%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.30%, Kalshi 0.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 26% · Tom Begich 0.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$173K27.5%Kalshi52.7K contracts · 23%/27%—venue gap—7-day move-1.0ppTom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$159K1.35%Kalshi235K contracts · 0.3%/0.6%—venue gap—7-day move-0.1ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT. Day Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi 7 days ago 27.5% — 1.35% — 6 days ago 27.5% — 1.35% — 5 days ago 27.5% 30% 1.35% 0.10% 4 days ago 26.5% 26% 1.40% 0.10% 3 days ago 27.0% 27% 1.35% 0.10% 2 days ago 26.5% 24% 1.30% 0.30% yesterday 26.5% 25% 1.30% 0.30% today 26.5% 25% 1.30% 0.45% yArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.5%, Kalshi 87.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 88% · Andy Biggs 13%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$32.3K86.5%Kalshi331K contracts · 87%/88%87.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$36.7K13.5%Kalshi258K contracts · 12%/13%13.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 13.0% 6 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 12.5% 15.0% 5 days ago 87.0% 87.0% 12.5% 14.0% 4 days ago 87.0% 87.0% 12.5% 14.0% 3 days ago 87.5% 87.0% 12.5% 13.0% 2 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 12.0% yesterday 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 13.0% today 87.5% 87.5% 12.5% 12.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
acFlorida governor
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 81% · David Jolly 20%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.0K81.5%Kalshi869K contracts · 80%/81%82.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppDavid Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$34.0K19%Kalshi449K contracts · 19%/20%19%venue gap0.0pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT. Day Byron Donalds · Polymarket Byron Donalds · Kalshi David Jolly · Polymarket David Jolly · Kalshi 7 days ago 81.5% 82.0% 19.0% 19.0% 6 days ago 81.5% 82.0% 18.5% 20.0% 5 days ago 81.0% 80.0% 19.0% 21.0% 4 days ago 81.5% 80.0% 18.5% 21.0% 3 days ago 81.5% 80.0% 18.5% 20.0% 2 days ago 80.5% 81.0% 19.5% 21.0% yesterday 80.5% 81.0% 19.5% 20.0% today 80.5% 80.5% 19.5% 19.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
pGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 56.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 47.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 55% · Rick Jackson 47%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$38.8K56.5%Kalshi307K contracts · 54%/55%57.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppRick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$45.4K42%Kalshi441K contracts · 47%/48%44%venue gap2.0pp7-day move+1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT. Day Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi 7 days ago 56.5% 57.0% 42.0% 44.0% 6 days ago 57.0% 56.0% 42.5% 44.0% 5 days ago 57.0% 57.0% 43.5% 44.0% 4 days ago 58.0% 56.0% 42.5% 45.0% 3 days ago 58.0% 54.0% 40.5% 46.0% 2 days ago 56.5% 56.0% 43.5% 43.0% yesterday 56.5% 56.0% 43.5% 45.0% today 56.5% 54.5% 43.5% 47.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
vIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 77.0%, Kalshi 78.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 23.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 78% · Zach Lahn 21%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$33.9K77%Kalshi340K contracts · 78%/79%78%venue gap1.0pp7-day move0.0ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$45.5K23%Kalshi334K contracts · 20%/21%22%venue gap1.0pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 77.0% 78.0% 23.0% 22.0% 6 days ago 77.0% 78.0% 23.5% 22.0% 5 days ago 76.5% 79.0% 23.5% 24.0% 4 days ago 77.0% 78.0% 23.5% 22.0% 3 days ago 77.0% 78.0% 23.5% 24.0% 2 days ago 77.0% 77.0% 24.0% 23.0% yesterday 77.0% 79.0% 23.5% 23.0% today 77.0% 78.5% 23.5% 20.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
xMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.7pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 92.0%, Kalshi 91.4%; John James (R): Polymarket 6.5%, Kalshi 9.2%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.7pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 92% · John James 7.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$50.0K92.5%Kalshi74.0K contracts · 90%/93%92.9%venue gap0.4pp7-day move-0.5ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$156K7.5%Kalshi137K contracts · 8.6%/9.8%—venue gap—7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 92.5% 92.9% 7.5% — 6 days ago 92.5% 88.0% 7.0% 11.0% 5 days ago 92.5% 91.0% 6.5% 11.0% 4 days ago 92.5% 91.0% 7.0% 12.0% 3 days ago 92.0% 92.6% 6.5% 9.1% 2 days ago 92.0% 92.8% 6.5% 12.0% yesterday 92.0% 89.0% 6.5% 12.0% today 92.0% 91.4% 6.5% 9.2% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aaNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.8pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 93.5%, Kalshi 92.3%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 6.00%, Kalshi 7.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.8pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 92% · Bruce Blakeman 7.6%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$50.0K94.5%Kalshi365K contracts · 92%/93%92.1%venue gap2.4pp7-day move-1.0ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$65.9K6.5%Kalshi1.0M contracts · 7.6%/7.9%8.7%venue gap2.2pp7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 94.5% 92.1% 6.5% 8.70% 6 days ago 94.5% 92.2% 6.5% 9.30% 5 days ago 94.5% 92.2% 6.5% 8.70% 4 days ago 94.5% 92.1% 6.5% 9.30% 3 days ago 93.5% 92.2% 6.5% 8.90% 2 days ago 93.5% 92.3% 6.5% 8.50% yesterday 93.5% 92.3% 6.0% 8.20% today 93.5% 92.3% 6.0% 7.75% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
hOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 55.0%, Kalshi 54.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 55% · Vivek Ramaswamy 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$92.7K55.5%Kalshi793K contracts · 54%/55%57.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-0.5ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$109K45.5%Kalshi834K contracts · 46%/47%44.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 55.5% 57.0% 45.5% 44.0% 6 days ago 55.5% 57.0% 43.5% 45.0% 5 days ago 55.5% 56.0% 45.0% 45.0% 4 days ago 54.5% 57.0% 45.0% 44.0% 3 days ago 55.0% 57.0% 44.0% 47.0% 2 days ago 55.0% 55.0% 44.0% 47.0% yesterday 55.0% 55.0% 45.0% 46.0% today 55.0% 54.5% 44.5% 46.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
abPennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.7pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.80%, Kalshi 96.85%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.55%, Kalshi 3.20%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.7pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 97% · Stacy Garrity 3.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$7.5K97.1%Kalshi99.6K contracts · 97%/97%—venue gap—7-day move-0.3ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$42.0K2.3%Kalshi395K contracts · 2.9%/3.5%2.6%venue gap0.3pp7-day move+0.2ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 97.10% — 2.30% 2.6% 6 days ago 96.85% 96.80% 2.50% 4.5% 5 days ago 97.10% 95.50% 2.30% 4.2% 4 days ago 96.90% 95.10% 2.25% 3.3% 3 days ago 97.00% 97.50% 2.40% 3.4% 2 days ago 96.60% 97.10% 2.55% 3.3% yesterday 96.80% 97.20% 2.55% 2.9% today 96.80% 96.85% 2.55% 3.2% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
zTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 82.95%, Kalshi 82.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 16.5%, Kalshi 18.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 83% · Gina Hinojosa 18%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$43.0K80.85%Kalshi188K contracts · 82%/83%82.00%venue gap1.1pp7-day move+2.1ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$57.1K18%Kalshi713K contracts · 18%/19%18%venue gap0.0pp7-day move-1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 80.85% 82.0% 18.0% 18.0% 6 days ago 81.00% 84.0% 19.0% 18.0% 5 days ago 81.10% 83.0% 18.5% 19.0% 4 days ago 83.10% 82.0% 16.5% 19.0% 3 days ago 83.30% 83.0% 16.0% 19.0% 2 days ago 82.90% 82.0% 16.5% 18.0% yesterday 83.00% 84.0% 16.5% 17.0% today 82.95% 82.5% 16.5% 18.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
oWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 16.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 82% · Tom Tiffany 19%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$316K82.5%Kalshi464K contracts · 80%/81%80.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+1.0ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$273K17.5%Kalshi619K contracts · 19%/20%20.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 82.5% 80.0% 17.5% 20.0% 6 days ago 82.5% 82.0% 17.5% 19.0% 5 days ago 82.5% 81.0% 17.5% 20.0% 4 days ago 83.5% 81.0% 15.5% 20.0% 3 days ago 83.5% 81.0% 16.5% 19.0% 2 days ago 83.5% 80.0% 16.5% 20.0% yesterday 83.5% 80.0% 16.5% 21.0% today 83.5% 80.5% 16.5% 19.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.