Fed raises its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since July 2023

News news5 stories

Ongoing4 earlier updates5 days

This story has run 5 times over 5 days, starting Sep 12.

Sep 12Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the year, lifting September Fed rate hike odds above 80%
Sep 14Trump threatens trade cutoff with some nations unless Fed lowers rates despite 3.4% inflation
Sep 15Update10-year Treasury yield hit 5.014% Monday, Sept. 14, first time since October 2023
Sep 16Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark rate a quarter point on Wednesday, Sept. 16, its first hike in three years.
Sep 17UpdateFed raises its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since July 2023 — this issue

NYTUpdate2026 midterms

Fed raises its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since July 2023

Trump called for rates of "1%, or less" — against the new 3.75%-4% range — and said the blame belongs to the Fed's board, not to the chair he picked, Kevin Warsh.

The decision. The Federal Reserve raised its target range for short-term interest rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, Sept. 16, to 3.75%-4%. That is the first increase since July 2023, and the first big move by Chair Kevin Warsh. Prices are rising 3.4% a year — the Labor Department's August reading, unchanged from July — well above the 2% pace the Fed aims for. Core prices, which strip out food and fuel, rose 2.4% over the year. The vote was unanimous — Warsh himself voted for the increase. It came seven weeks before the midterm elections, after months of public demands from Donald Trump that the Fed cut instead.

Trump's answer. On Truth Social, he said rates "should be 1%, or less" — roughly three points under the 3.75%-4% the Fed just set. Speaking to reporters after landing in North Carolina, he aimed past his own appointee: "I'm relying on Kevin, but he's got a very tough board."

Where it stands. The new target range is 3.75%-4%, up from 3.5%-3.75%. Traders in interest-rate markets had already bet heavily that the increase was coming.

Catch upwhat happened before · 4 earlier issues

Sep. 11 — August consumer prices came in at 3.4% for the year and 0.4% for the month, up from 0.1% in July, with gasoline doing most of the monthly work.
Sep. 12 — Core inflation eased to 2.4%, but markets moved past 80% odds on a Sept. 16 hike.
Sep. 14 — Trump threatened to cut off trade with some countries unless the Fed lowered rates.
Sep. 16 — Swaps traders priced a 90% chance of a quarter-point increase hours before the meeting ended.

Sep 16Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark rate a quarter point on Wednesday, Sept. 16, its first hike in three years.

3 earlier issues

Where rates, inflation, and Trump's demand stand

Ongoing1 earlier update14 days

This story has run 2 times over 14 days, starting Sep 3.

Sep 3UpdateHouse panel unanimously advances bill making data centers pay their own grid-upgrade costs
Sep 17House passes the Ratepayer Protection Act, telling state regulators to weigh making data centers pay their own power and grid costs — this issue

AXIOS

House passes the Ratepayer Protection Act, telling state regulators to weigh making data centers pay their own power and grid costs

The bill passed with votes from both parties on Wednesday, Sept. 16, and now needs the Senate; it does not itself cap anyone's electric bill.

The House passed the Ratepayer Protection Act on Wednesday, Sept. 16. The bill would push state utility regulators to consider rules that make data centers cover the cost of the power lines, substations and generation their facilities require, instead of spreading those costs across everyone else's monthly bills. The vote was 417-3.

What next. The measure goes to the Senate, which has not scheduled a vote.

Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

The House energy committee advanced the bill unanimously on Thursday, Sept. 3 — no member voted against it. State utility commissions, not Congress, keep the final say over rates either way.

Sep 3UpdateHouse panel unanimously advances bill making data centers pay their own grid-upgrade costs

Ongoing7 earlier updates8 days

This story has run 8 times over 8 days, starting Sep 9.

Sep 9Houthi missiles and drones hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and halting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery
Sep 11Houthis capture Yemen's Mokha from Saudi-backed forces 46 miles from Bab el-Mandeb
Sep 12UpdateHouthi forces captured Mokha and Perim island in the 28-kilometer Bab el-Mandeb strait.
Sep 13UpdateA day after the Bab el-Mandeb capture, maritime monitors have recorded no new transit halts
Sep 14UpdateSaudi Arabia shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline, oil rises more than $3 with 4% of supply at risk
Sep 15UpdateHouthis seize two more Red Sea islands as Saudi pipeline faces 3-to-5-week outage
Sep 16UpdateSaudi Arabia suspends loadings at its last open oil terminal; September cargoes cancelled
Sep 17Attacks on Saudi export pipeline push WTI crude to $107.02 a barrel, a 30-day high — this issue

FTIran war

Attacks on Saudi export pipeline push WTI crude to $107.02 a barrel, a 30-day high

Beijing has spent the Iran war selling oil out of its own reserves instead of buying more on the world market, which held prices down for everyone.

Strikes by Yemen's Houthi rebels on a Saudi export pipeline have cut the flow of crude reaching the kingdom's loading terminals, and buyers bid up every barrel still moving. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark grade, settled at $107.02 a barrel on Tuesday, Sept. 15 — the highest close in the Energy Department’s last 30 trading days — up from $77.33 on Aug. 4.

China has spent the Iran war absorbing the shock by selling oil out of its own reserves rather than buying more on the world market, which held prices down for everyone.

The U.S. Embassy in Riyadh told Americans on Wednesday, Sept. 16, to reconsider travel to the kingdom.

Still open. How much of the line's capacity is out, and for how long, Riyadh has not said. Without that, how much of the six-week move in crude the outage explains is not known.

West Texas Intermediate spot price

Ongoing2 earlier updates5 days

This story has run 3 times over 5 days, starting Sep 12.

Sep 12House schedules vote next week on authorizing 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers
Sep 16UpdateThe House voted 214-211 to advance 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil
Sep 17UpdateCongress sends Trump a bill letting him impose 100% tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil — this issue

POLITICOUpdateRussia-Ukraine war

Congress sends Trump a bill letting him impose 100% tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil

Named for the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, the bill also requires sanctions on Russian officials, defense contractors and shadow-fleet tankers.

The vote. The House passed the Russia sanctions package on Wednesday, Sept. 16, the last step before President Trump's signature after more than a year of stalling in Congress.

The tariff lever. The bill lets Trump put tariffs of up to 100% on any country that keeps buying Russian energy — a border tax on that country's goods coming into the United States. The target is India and China, the two largest customers for Moscow's crude.

The mandatory list. It also makes a set of sanctions mandatory rather than optional: on senior Russian officials, on foreign firms helping the Russian defense industry, and on the aging "shadow fleet" of tankers that moves oil around existing price caps (limits Western countries set on what buyers may pay for Russian oil).

The party split. Most Democrats voted no — “What we’re not for is giving more tariff authority to this president,” Rep. Richard Neal of Massachusetts said during the debate, after Republicans in the Rules Committee refused to strip the tariff power or narrow it. Fifty-eight Democrats crossed over anyway, breaking with Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Republicans carried the rest.

What next. It goes to Trump's desk; he is expected to sign it, and the tariff authority is his to use or not use.

Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues

Aug. 28 — A Russian drone hit an ammunition depot in Myla near Kyiv; 38 died and four went missing.
Sept. 5-6 — Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner carried a U.S. peace proposal to Putin in Moscow, then to Zelensky in Kyiv; Putin ordered a 72-hour halt to strikes on the two capitals.
Sept. 9 — Russia resumed strikes on Kyiv as soon as the pause lapsed, killing seven; Trump and Putin then spoke for an hour.
Sept. 13 — Putin warned that European troops in Ukraine would mean war with Russia, and Moscow rejected European peace plans.
Sept. 16 — The House voted 214-211 to bring the sanctions bill to the floor, with two Democrats saving the rule after two Republicans defected.

Sep 16UpdateThe House voted 214-211 to advance 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil

1 earlier issue

Sep 12House schedules vote next week on authorizing 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers

Chart

The House voted 214–211

3-vote margin, out of 425 votes cast.

YesNo

The numbers

The House voted 214–211
Votes	Yes	No
House roll call	214 votes	211 votes

AXIOS

More than two dozen lawmakers and governors say they do not use AI while drafting rules

Frank Pallone (D-N.J.), the ranking Democrat on House Energy and Commerce, said he has never used the tools and compared oversight to regulating heroin.

Interviews published Wednesday, Sept. 16, found that more than two dozen lawmakers and governors do not use artificial intelligence. Most said they have never opened a generative tool. Others tried one once or twice, leaving technical tracking entirely to staff.

The defense. Pallone's office argued that lawmakers do not need personal experience to write rules. The spokesman said Congress often regulates street drugs like heroin without members using them.

The pushback. Tech experts counter that setting standards takes hands-on testing. Without direct use, lawmakers cannot evaluate model weights, compute caps, or false answers. One House Democrat called the gap absurd.

Where it stands. Congress has passed no federal safety law for artificial intelligence. Committee bills remain stalled, leaving rules to state laws and executive orders.

Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), 70, answered “I don’t think I do” when asked whether he uses it; Rep. Bobby Scott (D-Va.), 79, the ranking member on Education and the Workforce, said he uses it every day.

Quick bites7

House votes by unanimous consent to hold Leon Black in contempt of Congress
POLITICO
Black refused to sit for a deposition or turn over documents under two Oversight Committee subpoenas — one for the deposition, one for Epstein-related documents. The contempt referral passed by unanimous consent, with no member objecting; it now goes to the Justice Department, which decides on its own whether to bring criminal charges.
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times over 13 days, starting Sep 4.
Sep 4Leon Black skipped his Epstein deposition and sued House Oversight to void the subpoenas
Sep 17House votes by unanimous consent to hold Leon Black in contempt of Congress — this issue
EU chief proposes making Canada the bloc's first associate member
AXIOS Tariffs and trade
EU chief Ursula von der Leyen wants to open talks on associate membership for Canada, she said Wednesday, Sept. 16, in Brussels beside Prime Minister Mark Carney. Ottawa is looking to Europe after a year of U.S. tariffs and Trump's talk of making Canada the 51st state. Canada cannot join outright: EU treaties limit full membership to European states. She did not say what rights or duties the lesser tier would carry. Trump answered Thursday evening: “If it's a hostile act, I will put very serious tariffs or stop trading with Europe on many things,” he told reporters. “If it's a bad intention, we'll put very heavy tariffs on Europe.”
White House chief of staff Susie Wiles says she is cancer free six months after her breast cancer diagnosis
THE HILL
Wiles, 69, wrote on X on Wednesday, Sept. 16, that her pathology results came back clear, six months after she disclosed an early-stage breast cancer diagnosis in March and kept working through treatment.
Family of Texas woman who died of preeclampsia sues AG Ken Paxton over denied abortion
THE HILL
Tierra Walker was 37 when preeclampsia killed her in 2024 — seizures, then blood clots. On Wednesday, Sept. 16, her family sued. Named in the suit: the doctors who treated her, and Attorney General Ken Paxton, whose office enforces the state's abortion ban and has moved against doctors who use its medical exception. The suit says the ban left those doctors unwilling to end the pregnancy. The claims are untested; no defendant has responded.
Trump donor Harold Hamm's Continental Resources signs deal to drill 126,000 acres in Venezuela
THE HILL
Continental signed a memorandum of understanding — a framework, not a final contract — with Venezuela's state-run oil company PDVSA on Wednesday, Sept. 16, to explore and produce in a 126,000-acre field Venezuela has never developed. The block is about 200 square miles. PDVSA remains under U.S. sanctions, so any drilling would need a license from Treasury's sanctions office. Hamm is among Trump's closest allies in the U.S. oil industry.
Fifth Circuit throws out EPA ban on toxic paint stripper methylene chloride
THE HILL
A unanimous panel ruled Sept. 15 that the agency cannot ban a chemical on uncertainty about leftover risk — it has to identify an unreasonable risk for each use, and it wrongly assumed workers would skip protective equipment.

How dangerous it actually is: EPA calls methylene chloride “likely to be carcinogenic to humans” and counts at least 88 deaths from short-term exposure since 1980 — the fumes can kill in a single stripping job, and long-term exposure is tied to kidney and liver damage.

What the rule did: the 2024 rule barred every consumer use and most industrial and commercial uses of the solvent — consumer paint removers had already been banned in 2019, and that ban stays — the court vacated only the 2024 expansion. The Trump administration defended the rule in court while saying it would revisit parts of it; health advocates called the ruling a win for the chemical industry at the expense of workers.
Senate Agriculture Committee advances five-year farm bill 12-11 after Mitch McConnell returns
THE HILL
McConnell (R-Ky.) cast the deciding vote along party lines after a 90-day absence following a June fall. The bill failed 10-11 on Aug. 6 when McConnell and Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) were out — both were back Wednesday, and Tuberville cast the 12th vote.

What the bill is: the Agricultural Act of 2026 is the five-year package that funds crop insurance, farm supports and food aid — the first since 2018, with the current extension expiring Sept. 30. The Congressional Budget Office puts the mandatory baseline at $1.374 trillion over a decade, $985 billion of it nutrition programs; SNAP is by far the largest title.

The fight: Democrats on the panel oppose a provision shifting some SNAP costs to states with high payment-error rates. Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.) offered a one-year delay and was rejected; with Democrats united against it, the bill will likely need 60 votes on the floor, the Courier Journal reports — Republicans hold 53. The House passed its version in April.

Elections22 races

The midterms · 47 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 89%, Kalshi 89%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 60%, Kalshi 56%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 88.5%

89%89%chance Democrats take it · the same price on both · both venues up this week

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 89% and Kalshi 89%.

U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 55.5–59.5%

60%56%chance Democrats take it · 4.0pp apart · both venues up this week

U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 60% and Kalshi 56%.

No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only

Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.

two venues, priced separately
shaded = how far apart they are
50% — control flips here
where it stood 7 days ago
the last 7 days, on its own scale
week panel: one line a party

The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.

Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.

The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 0.0pp gap / 4.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.

Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”

Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

PolymarketU.S. House · todayWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Democratic control89%

Republican, implied11%

volume$6.6M

7-day move+1.0pp

KalshiU.S. House · todayWill Democrats win the House in 2026?

Democratic control89%

Republican, implied11%

volume11M contracts

bid / ask88% / 89%

7-day move+3.5pp

PolymarketU.S. Senate · todayWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Democratic control60%

Republican, implied40%

volume$2.7M

7-day move+7.0pp

KalshiU.S. Senate · todayWill Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?

Democratic control56%

Republican, implied44%

volume4.0M contracts

bid / ask55% / 56%

7-day move+8.5pp

Probability that Democrats control each chamber, as each venue prices it, by day.
Day	U.S. House · Polymarket	U.S. House · Kalshi	U.S. Senate · Polymarket	U.S. Senate · Kalshi
7 days ago	88%	85%	53%	47%
6 days ago	87%	86%	54%	48%
5 days ago	87%	86%	53%	49%
4 days ago	88%	85%	54%	49%
3 days ago	87%	86%	59%	49%
2 days ago	89%	86%	59%	52%
yesterday	89%	86%	60%	55%
today	89%	89%	60%	56%

3 closest races

nOhio SenateSherrod Brown 54.0%▲2.7Jon Husted 46.3%

POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead.

Two markets, one question

Ohio Senate

Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 46.0%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 54% · Jon Husted 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$216K51.5%

Kalshi1.6M contracts · 53%/54%51.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move+3.0pp

Jon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$161K47.5%

Kalshi1.7M contracts · 46%/47%50.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move-1.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT.
Day	Sherrod Brown · Polymarket	Sherrod Brown · Kalshi	Jon Husted · Polymarket	Jon Husted · Kalshi
7 days ago	51.5%	51.0%	47.5%	50.0%
6 days ago	51.5%	53.0%	48.5%	49.0%
5 days ago	51.5%	53.0%	47.0%	48.0%
4 days ago	53.5%	53.0%	46.5%	47.0%
3 days ago	56.5%	52.0%	44.5%	48.0%
2 days ago	56.5%	54.0%	43.5%	47.0%
yesterday	54.5%	55.0%	46.0%	46.0%
today	54.5%	53.5%	46.0%	46.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

jTexas SenateJames Talarico 54.5%▲4.0Ken Paxton 45.5%

POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

The Democratic side holds a narrow lead after gaining about four points in a week.

Two markets, one question

Texas Senate

Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 56.5%, Kalshi 52.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: James Talarico 53% · Ken Paxton 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

James Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$568K51.5%

Kalshi5.2M contracts · 52%/53%50.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move+5.0pp

Ken Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$721K48.5%

Kalshi7.1M contracts · 46%/47%51.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move-4.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT.
Day	James Talarico · Polymarket	James Talarico · Kalshi	Ken Paxton · Polymarket	Ken Paxton · Kalshi
7 days ago	51.5%	50.0%	48.5%	51.0%
6 days ago	51.5%	51.0%	48.5%	51.0%
5 days ago	49.5%	51.0%	49.5%	50.0%
4 days ago	52.5%	51.0%	48.5%	51.0%
3 days ago	55.5%	51.0%	45.5%	50.0%
2 days ago	56.5%	52.0%	44.5%	50.0%
yesterday	56.5%	54.0%	44.5%	47.0%
today	56.5%	52.5%	44.5%	46.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

qNevada governorJoe Lombardo 54.5%Aaron Ford 45.0%▲3.4

POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).

Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead.

Two markets, one question

Nevada governor

Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 55.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 55% · Aaron Ford 45%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$111K54%

Kalshi257K contracts · 55%/56%62%

venue gap8.0pp

7-day move-0.5pp

Aaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$44.5K44.5%

Kalshi505K contracts · 44%/45%40.0%

venue gap4.5pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT.
Day	Joe Lombardo · Polymarket	Joe Lombardo · Kalshi	Aaron Ford · Polymarket	Aaron Ford · Kalshi
7 days ago	54.0%	62.0%	44.5%	40.0%
6 days ago	43.0%	56.0%	47.5%	43.0%
5 days ago	51.0%	55.0%	49.0%	44.0%
4 days ago	48.0%	55.0%	50.0%	45.0%
3 days ago	46.0%	56.0%	48.0%	45.0%
2 days ago	53.5%	54.0%	46.5%	46.0%
yesterday	53.5%	55.0%	45.5%	46.0%
today	53.5%	55.5%	45.5%	44.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 12 still in doubt · Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate8 of 10

kAlaska SenateMary Peltola 67.0%▲1.6Dan Sullivan 33.5%

POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Alaska Senate

Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 66.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 33.5%, Kalshi 33.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.

Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 67% · Dan Sullivan 34%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Mary Peltola (D)7 days ago

Polymarket$278K66.5%

Kalshi90.8K contracts · 67%/68%66.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Dan Sullivan (R)7 days ago

Polymarket$156K34%

Kalshi75.8K contracts · 32%/35%—

venue gap—

7-day move-0.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT.
Day	Mary Peltola · Polymarket	Mary Peltola · Kalshi	Dan Sullivan · Polymarket	Dan Sullivan · Kalshi
7 days ago	66.5%	66.0%	34.0%	—
6 days ago	67.5%	65.0%	33.5%	37.0%
5 days ago	67.5%	66.0%	33.5%	37.0%
4 days ago	66.5%	67.0%	33.5%	37.0%
3 days ago	65.5%	68.0%	34.5%	37.0%
2 days ago	65.5%	68.0%	34.5%	37.0%
yesterday	66.5%	66.0%	33.5%	37.0%
today	66.5%	67.5%	33.5%	33.5%

sGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 93.2%▲1.3Collins 6.7%

POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Georgia Senate

Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.7pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.0%, Kalshi 93.4%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 7.0%, Kalshi 6.3%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.7pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 93% · Mike Collins 6.4%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$53.3K91.5%

Kalshi387K contracts · 93%/94%92.3%

venue gap0.8pp

7-day move+1.5pp

Mike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$79.5K7.6%

Kalshi913K contracts · 5.8%/6.8%7.7%

venue gap0.1pp

7-day move-0.6pp

Every sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT.
Day	Jon Ossoff · Polymarket	Jon Ossoff · Kalshi	Mike Collins · Polymarket	Mike Collins · Kalshi
7 days ago	91.5%	92.3%	7.60%	7.7%
6 days ago	92.5%	92.3%	7.10%	7.8%
5 days ago	92.5%	92.3%	7.50%	7.9%
4 days ago	93.5%	92.3%	6.45%	6.8%
3 days ago	92.5%	93.4%	6.65%	7.5%
2 days ago	93.0%	93.5%	7.10%	7.0%
yesterday	93.0%	93.8%	7.00%	6.6%
today	93.0%	93.4%	7.00%	6.3%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

lIowa SenateAshley Hinson 60.8%Josh Turek 39.3%▲1.9

POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.

Two markets, one question

Iowa Senate

Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 61.0%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 39.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 61% · Josh Turek 39%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$179K61%

Kalshi1.2M contracts · 60%/62%66%

venue gap5.0pp

7-day move-0.5pp

Josh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$178K39.5%

Kalshi1.6M contracts · 38%/40%36.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT.
Day	Ashley Hinson · Polymarket	Ashley Hinson · Kalshi	Josh Turek · Polymarket	Josh Turek · Kalshi
7 days ago	61.0%	66%	39.5%	36%
6 days ago	61.0%	67%	39.0%	34%
5 days ago	60.5%	62%	39.5%	40%
4 days ago	56.5%	62%	42.5%	38%
3 days ago	57.0%	61%	41.5%	39%
2 days ago	57.5%	62%	40.5%	39%
yesterday	60.5%	61%	39.5%	39%
today	60.5%	61%	39.5%	39%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

iMaine SenateTroy Jackson 69.0%Collins 31.0%▲0.3

POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Maine Senate

Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 32.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 68% · Susan Collins 32%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$830K70.5%

Kalshi2.6M contracts · 67%/68%68.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Susan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$563K28.5%

Kalshi2.9M contracts · 32%/33%33.0%

venue gap4.5pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT.
Day	Troy Jackson · Polymarket	Troy Jackson · Kalshi	Susan Collins · Polymarket	Susan Collins · Kalshi
7 days ago	70.5%	68.0%	28.5%	33.0%
6 days ago	70.5%	68.0%	29.5%	33.0%
5 days ago	70.5%	68.0%	29.5%	33.0%
4 days ago	70.5%	68.0%	29.5%	33.0%
3 days ago	70.5%	66.0%	30.5%	33.0%
2 days ago	70.5%	67.0%	29.5%	35.0%
yesterday	70.5%	66.0%	29.5%	35.0%
today	70.5%	67.5%	29.5%	32.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

mMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 65%▲1.5Mike Rogers 35%

POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Michigan Senate

Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 65%, Kalshi 64%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 34%, Kalshi 36%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 64% · Mike Rogers 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$467K62.5%

Kalshi1.4M contracts · 63%/65%63.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move+2.5pp

Mike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$366K37%

Kalshi2.2M contracts · 35%/37%36%

venue gap1.0pp

7-day move-3.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT.
Day	Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket	Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi	Mike Rogers · Polymarket	Mike Rogers · Kalshi
7 days ago	62.5%	63%	37.0%	36%
6 days ago	62.5%	64%	37.0%	37%
5 days ago	59.5%	63%	40.0%	40%
4 days ago	61.5%	63%	39.5%	37%
3 days ago	61.5%	61%	39.5%	41%
2 days ago	66.5%	62%	33.5%	39%
yesterday	65.0%	62%	34.5%	39%
today	65.0%	64%	34.0%	36%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

tNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 68.0%Dan Osborn 32.0%▲2.8

POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

The Republican side holds a commanding lead after Osborn gained about three points in a week.

Two markets, one question

Nebraska Senate

Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 68% · Dan Osborn 32%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$116K68.5%

Kalshi706K contracts · 67%/70%73.0%

venue gap4.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Dan Osborn (I)7 days ago

Polymarket$71.1K30.5%

Kalshi523K contracts · 31%/32%27.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move+2.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT.
Day	Pete Ricketts · Polymarket	Pete Ricketts · Kalshi	Dan Osborn · Polymarket	Dan Osborn · Kalshi
7 days ago	68.5%	73.0%	30.5%	27.0%
6 days ago	65.0%	71.0%	31.5%	27.0%
5 days ago	66.5%	71.0%	31.5%	27.0%
4 days ago	67.5%	70.0%	32.5%	29.0%
3 days ago	67.5%	70.0%	32.5%	27.0%
2 days ago	67.5%	70.0%	32.5%	30.0%
yesterday	67.5%	69.0%	32.5%	31.0%
today	67.5%	68.5%	32.5%	31.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

uNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 81.8%18.5%▲1.4Sununu

POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

New Hampshire Senate

Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 82.0%, Kalshi 81.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 18.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 82% · John E. Sununu 18%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Chris Pappas (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$75.9K82.5%

Kalshi257K contracts · 81%/82%85.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move-0.5pp

John E. Sununu (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$34.9K17.5%

Kalshi404K contracts · 18%/19%17.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT.
Day	Chris Pappas · Polymarket	Chris Pappas · Kalshi	John E. Sununu · Polymarket	John E. Sununu · Kalshi
7 days ago	82.5%	85.0%	17.5%	17.0%
6 days ago	83.5%	84.0%	14.5%	16.0%
5 days ago	84.5%	85.0%	15.0%	15.0%
4 days ago	83.5%	85.0%	15.5%	17.0%
3 days ago	80.5%	85.0%	17.5%	16.0%
2 days ago	82.0%	82.0%	18.5%	18.0%
yesterday	82.0%	82.0%	18.5%	19.0%
today	82.0%	81.5%	18.5%	18.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

rNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 91.72%▲0.68.40%Whatley

POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

North Carolina Senate

Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.4pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 91.50%, Kalshi 91.95%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.5%, Kalshi 8.3%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 92% · Michael Whatley 8.3%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$47.2K92.5%

Kalshi1.3M contracts · 92%/92%91.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Michael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$65.9K8.5%

Kalshi758K contracts · 7.9%/8.7%9.7%

venue gap1.2pp

7-day move0.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT.
Day	Roy Cooper · Polymarket	Roy Cooper · Kalshi	Michael Whatley · Polymarket	Michael Whatley · Kalshi
7 days ago	92.5%	91.00%	8.5%	9.7%
6 days ago	92.5%	90.90%	8.5%	10.0%
5 days ago	92.0%	91.70%	9.0%	9.0%
4 days ago	90.5%	91.20%	10.0%	8.8%
3 days ago	91.5%	92.00%	9.0%	9.0%
2 days ago	91.5%	92.30%	8.5%	8.8%
yesterday	91.5%	92.20%	8.5%	8.1%
today	91.5%	91.95%	8.5%	8.3%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors11 of 12

wAlaska governorWilson 25.75%73.3%Begich 0.88%▲2.9

POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

Wilson holds a clear lead after losing about three points in five days.

Two markets, one question

Alaska governor

Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 25.0%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.30%, Kalshi 0.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.

Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 26% · Tom Begich 0.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days ago

Polymarket$173K27.5%

Kalshi52.7K contracts · 23%/27%—

venue gap—

7-day move-1.0pp

Tom Begich (D)7 days ago

Polymarket$159K1.35%

Kalshi235K contracts · 0.3%/0.6%—

venue gap—

7-day move-0.1pp

Every sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT.
Day	Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket	Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi	Tom Begich · Polymarket	Tom Begich · Kalshi
7 days ago	27.5%	—	1.35%	—
6 days ago	27.5%	—	1.35%	—
5 days ago	27.5%	30%	1.35%	0.10%
4 days ago	26.5%	26%	1.40%	0.10%
3 days ago	27.0%	27%	1.35%	0.10%
2 days ago	26.5%	24%	1.30%	0.30%
yesterday	26.5%	25%	1.30%	0.30%
today	26.5%	25%	1.30%	0.45%

yArizona governorKatie Hobbs 87.5%▲0.712.5%Biggs

POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Arizona governor

Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.5%, Kalshi 87.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 88% · Andy Biggs 13%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$32.3K86.5%

Kalshi331K contracts · 87%/88%87.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Andy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$36.7K13.5%

Kalshi258K contracts · 12%/13%13.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT.
Day	Katie Hobbs · Polymarket	Katie Hobbs · Kalshi	Andy Biggs · Polymarket	Andy Biggs · Kalshi
7 days ago	86.5%	87.0%	13.5%	13.0%
6 days ago	86.5%	87.0%	12.5%	15.0%
5 days ago	87.0%	87.0%	12.5%	14.0%
4 days ago	87.0%	87.0%	12.5%	14.0%
3 days ago	87.5%	87.0%	12.5%	13.0%
2 days ago	87.5%	88.0%	12.5%	12.0%
yesterday	87.5%	88.0%	12.5%	13.0%
today	87.5%	87.5%	12.5%	12.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

acFlorida governorByron Donalds 80.5%19.5%▲0.6Jolly

POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Florida governor

Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 81% · David Jolly 20%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$31.0K81.5%

Kalshi869K contracts · 80%/81%82.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

David Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$34.0K19%

Kalshi449K contracts · 19%/20%19%

venue gap0.0pp

7-day move+0.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT.
Day	Byron Donalds · Polymarket	Byron Donalds · Kalshi	David Jolly · Polymarket	David Jolly · Kalshi
7 days ago	81.5%	82.0%	19.0%	19.0%
6 days ago	81.5%	82.0%	18.5%	20.0%
5 days ago	81.0%	80.0%	19.0%	21.0%
4 days ago	81.5%	80.0%	18.5%	21.0%
3 days ago	81.5%	80.0%	18.5%	20.0%
2 days ago	80.5%	81.0%	19.5%	21.0%
yesterday	80.5%	81.0%	19.5%	20.0%
today	80.5%	80.5%	19.5%	19.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

pGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 55.5%Rick Jackson 45.5%▲1.8

POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead.

Two markets, one question

Georgia governor

Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 56.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 47.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 55% · Rick Jackson 47%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$38.8K56.5%

Kalshi307K contracts · 54%/55%57.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Rick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$45.4K42%

Kalshi441K contracts · 47%/48%44%

venue gap2.0pp

7-day move+1.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT.
Day	Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket	Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi	Rick Jackson · Polymarket	Rick Jackson · Kalshi
7 days ago	56.5%	57.0%	42.0%	44.0%
6 days ago	57.0%	56.0%	42.5%	44.0%
5 days ago	57.0%	57.0%	43.5%	44.0%
4 days ago	58.0%	56.0%	42.5%	45.0%
3 days ago	58.0%	54.0%	40.5%	46.0%
2 days ago	56.5%	56.0%	43.5%	43.0%
yesterday	56.5%	56.0%	43.5%	45.0%
today	56.5%	54.5%	43.5%	47.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

vIowa governorRob Sand 77.8%▲0.3Zach Lahn 22.0%

POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Iowa governor

Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 77.0%, Kalshi 78.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 23.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Rob Sand 78% · Zach Lahn 21%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$33.9K77%

Kalshi340K contracts · 78%/79%78%

venue gap1.0pp

7-day move0.0pp

Zach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$45.5K23%

Kalshi334K contracts · 20%/21%22%

venue gap1.0pp

7-day move+0.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT.
Day	Rob Sand · Polymarket	Rob Sand · Kalshi	Zach Lahn · Polymarket	Zach Lahn · Kalshi
7 days ago	77.0%	78.0%	23.0%	22.0%
6 days ago	77.0%	78.0%	23.5%	22.0%
5 days ago	76.5%	79.0%	23.5%	24.0%
4 days ago	77.0%	78.0%	23.5%	22.0%
3 days ago	77.0%	78.0%	23.5%	24.0%
2 days ago	77.0%	77.0%	24.0%	23.0%
yesterday	77.0%	79.0%	23.5%	23.0%
today	77.0%	78.5%	23.5%	20.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

xMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 91.7%▲0.87.8%James

POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Michigan governor

Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.7pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 92.0%, Kalshi 91.4%; John James (R): Polymarket 6.5%, Kalshi 9.2%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.7pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 92% · John James 7.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$50.0K92.5%

Kalshi74.0K contracts · 90%/93%92.9%

venue gap0.4pp

7-day move-0.5pp

John James (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$156K7.5%

Kalshi137K contracts · 8.6%/9.8%—

venue gap—

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT.
Day	Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket	Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi	John James · Polymarket	John James · Kalshi
7 days ago	92.5%	92.9%	7.5%	—
6 days ago	92.5%	88.0%	7.0%	11.0%
5 days ago	92.5%	91.0%	6.5%	11.0%
4 days ago	92.5%	91.0%	7.0%	12.0%
3 days ago	92.0%	92.6%	6.5%	9.1%
2 days ago	92.0%	92.8%	6.5%	12.0%
yesterday	92.0%	89.0%	6.5%	12.0%
today	92.0%	91.4%	6.5%	9.2%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

aaNew York governorKathy Hochul 92.90%▲0.4Blakeman 6.88%

POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

New York governor

Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.8pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 93.5%, Kalshi 92.3%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 6.00%, Kalshi 7.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.8pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 92% · Bruce Blakeman 7.6%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$50.0K94.5%

Kalshi365K contracts · 92%/93%92.1%

venue gap2.4pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Bruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$65.9K6.5%

Kalshi1.0M contracts · 7.6%/7.9%8.7%

venue gap2.2pp

7-day move-0.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT.
Day	Kathy Hochul · Polymarket	Kathy Hochul · Kalshi	Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket	Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi
7 days ago	94.5%	92.1%	6.5%	8.70%
6 days ago	94.5%	92.2%	6.5%	9.30%
5 days ago	94.5%	92.2%	6.5%	8.70%
4 days ago	94.5%	92.1%	6.5%	9.30%
3 days ago	93.5%	92.2%	6.5%	8.90%
2 days ago	93.5%	92.3%	6.5%	8.50%
yesterday	93.5%	92.3%	6.0%	8.20%
today	93.5%	92.3%	6.0%	7.75%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

hOhio governorAmy Acton 54.8%Vivek Ramaswamy 45.5%▲1.1

POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Ohio governor

Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 55.0%, Kalshi 54.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Amy Acton 55% · Vivek Ramaswamy 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$92.7K55.5%

Kalshi793K contracts · 54%/55%57.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-0.5pp

Vivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$109K45.5%

Kalshi834K contracts · 46%/47%44.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT.
Day	Amy Acton · Polymarket	Amy Acton · Kalshi	Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket	Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi
7 days ago	55.5%	57.0%	45.5%	44.0%
6 days ago	55.5%	57.0%	43.5%	45.0%
5 days ago	55.5%	56.0%	45.0%	45.0%
4 days ago	54.5%	57.0%	45.0%	44.0%
3 days ago	55.0%	57.0%	44.0%	47.0%
2 days ago	55.0%	55.0%	44.0%	47.0%
yesterday	55.0%	55.0%	45.0%	46.0%
today	55.0%	54.5%	44.5%	46.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

abPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 96.82%Garrity 2.88%

POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Pennsylvania governor

Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.7pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.80%, Kalshi 96.85%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.55%, Kalshi 3.20%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.7pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 97% · Stacy Garrity 3.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$7.5K97.1%

Kalshi99.6K contracts · 97%/97%—

venue gap—

7-day move-0.3pp

Stacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$42.0K2.3%

Kalshi395K contracts · 2.9%/3.5%2.6%

venue gap0.3pp

7-day move+0.2pp

Every sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT.
Day	Josh Shapiro · Polymarket	Josh Shapiro · Kalshi	Stacy Garrity · Polymarket	Stacy Garrity · Kalshi
7 days ago	97.10%	—	2.30%	2.6%
6 days ago	96.85%	96.80%	2.50%	4.5%
5 days ago	97.10%	95.50%	2.30%	4.2%
4 days ago	96.90%	95.10%	2.25%	3.3%
3 days ago	97.00%	97.50%	2.40%	3.4%
2 days ago	96.60%	97.10%	2.55%	3.3%
yesterday	96.80%	97.20%	2.55%	2.9%
today	96.80%	96.85%	2.55%	3.2%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

zTexas governorGreg Abbott 82.72%▲1.117.50%Hinojosa

POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Texas governor

Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 82.95%, Kalshi 82.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 16.5%, Kalshi 18.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 83% · Gina Hinojosa 18%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$43.0K80.85%

Kalshi188K contracts · 82%/83%82.00%

venue gap1.1pp

7-day move+2.1pp

Gina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$57.1K18%

Kalshi713K contracts · 18%/19%18%

venue gap0.0pp

7-day move-1.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT.
Day	Greg Abbott · Polymarket	Greg Abbott · Kalshi	Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket	Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi
7 days ago	80.85%	82.0%	18.0%	18.0%
6 days ago	81.00%	84.0%	19.0%	18.0%
5 days ago	81.10%	83.0%	18.5%	19.0%
4 days ago	83.10%	82.0%	16.5%	19.0%
3 days ago	83.30%	83.0%	16.0%	19.0%
2 days ago	82.90%	82.0%	16.5%	18.0%
yesterday	83.00%	84.0%	16.5%	17.0%
today	82.95%	82.5%	16.5%	18.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

oWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 82.0%▲0.7Tiffany 18.0%

POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Wisconsin governor

Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 16.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: David Crowley 82% · Tom Tiffany 19%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$316K82.5%

Kalshi464K contracts · 80%/81%80.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Tom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$273K17.5%

Kalshi619K contracts · 19%/20%20.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT.
Day	David Crowley · Polymarket	David Crowley · Kalshi	Tom Tiffany · Polymarket	Tom Tiffany · Kalshi
7 days ago	82.5%	80.0%	17.5%	20.0%
6 days ago	82.5%	82.0%	17.5%	19.0%
5 days ago	82.5%	81.0%	17.5%	20.0%
4 days ago	83.5%	81.0%	15.5%	20.0%
3 days ago	83.5%	81.0%	16.5%	19.0%
2 days ago	83.5%	80.0%	16.5%	20.0%
yesterday	83.5%	80.0%	16.5%	21.0%
today	83.5%	80.5%	16.5%	19.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 16, 8:54 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Sep 172026

Executive summary5 stories

News news5

News news5 stories

Trump called for rates of "1%, or less" — against the new 3.75%-4% range — and said the blame belongs to the Fed's board, not to the chair he picked, Kevin Warsh.

The bill passed with votes from both parties on Wednesday, Sept. 16, and now needs the Senate; it does not itself cap anyone's electric bill.

Beijing has spent the Iran war selling oil out of its own reserves instead of buying more on the world market, which held prices down for everyone.

Named for the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, the bill also requires sanctions on Russian officials, defense contractors and shadow-fleet tankers.

The House voted 214–211

Frank Pallone (D-N.J.), the ranking Democrat on House Energy and Commerce, said he has never used the tools and compared oversight to regulating heroin.

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