News news5 stories
President Donald Trump said Sunday, Sept. 20, that he was weighing further attacks on Iran, continued economic pressure or a deal.
Trump outlined those options on Sept. 20, asking: “My question is, if and when do I blow the entire nation up? They better behave,” The Hill reported.
Where it stands. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz declined to give a timeline for ending the war in a CNN interview on Sept. 20.
On Sept. 18, Trump said he faced a decision on whether to annihilate Iran’s regime.
QatarEnergy said on Sept. 20 that the Hormuz crisis could delay some expansion projects, Reuters reported.
Gasoline costs. High shipping rates could keep gasoline expensive even as crude oil prices ease, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Motor-oil shortages. Costco has imposed purchase limits on some motor oil.
Ongoing9 earlier updates12 days
This story has run 10 times over 12 days, starting Sep 9.
- Houthi missiles and drones hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and halting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery
- Houthis capture Yemen's Mokha from Saudi-backed forces 46 miles from Bab el-Mandeb
- UpdateHouthi forces captured Mokha and Perim island in the 28-kilometer Bab el-Mandeb strait.
- UpdateA day after the Bab el-Mandeb capture, maritime monitors have recorded no new transit halts
- UpdateSaudi Arabia shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline, oil rises more than $3 with 4% of supply at risk
- UpdateHouthis seize two more Red Sea islands as Saudi pipeline faces 3-to-5-week outage
- UpdateSaudi Arabia suspends loadings at its last open oil terminal; September cargoes cancelled
- Attacks on Saudi export pipeline push WTI crude to $107.02 a barrel, a 30-day high
- UpdateHouthi missiles hit Riyadh, burning a fuel depot near King Khalid airport
- UpdateSaudi Arabia says it intercepted a Houthi missile aimed at Riyadh — this issue
Houthi official Mohamed al-Bukhaiti says the group will keep targeting Saudi Arabia while honoring its pledge not to attack U.S. vessels.
The attacks. Saudi Arabia reported no casualties after intercepting a missile aimed at its capital on Saturday, Sept. 19. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis also claimed to have targeted Aramco oil facilities in Yanbu. A fire was reported near Riyadh’s airport, but its cause has not been established. The reporting does not confirm that a missile hit the fuel depot. Oil prices rose following the attack, Reuters reported.
The U.S. warning. The State Department urged Americans across the Middle East to prepare for possible flight cancellations, airspace closures and other travel disruption. Americans outside the region should reconsider travel there. This was a travel warning, not an evacuation order. Washington Examiner
Catch up
- Sept. 9 — Houthi attacks wounded 73 people across four Saudi cities and halted Aramco’s Jazan refinery, which processes 400,000 barrels a day.
- Sept. 10 — Brent crude (an international benchmark for oil prices) exceeded $100 a barrel, up from near $99; U.S. diesel reached $5.94 a gallon.
- Sept. 11–12 — Houthis captured Mokha and Perim island beside the Bab el-Mandeb passage connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
- Sept. 16 — Aramco suspended oil loadings at Yanbu and cancelled September cargoes.
- Sept. 19 — Air-raid sirens sounded in Riyadh for the first time since fighting escalated in July; a fire appeared near its airport.
8 earlier issues
- Houthi missiles and drones hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and halting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery
- Houthis capture Yemen's Mokha from Saudi-backed forces 46 miles from Bab el-Mandeb
- UpdateHouthi forces captured Mokha and Perim island in the 28-kilometer Bab el-Mandeb strait.
- UpdateA day after the Bab el-Mandeb capture, maritime monitors have recorded no new transit halts
- UpdateSaudi Arabia shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline, oil rises more than $3 with 4% of supply at risk
- UpdateHouthis seize two more Red Sea islands as Saudi pipeline faces 3-to-5-week outage
- UpdateSaudi Arabia suspends loadings at its last open oil terminal; September cargoes cancelled
- Attacks on Saudi export pipeline push WTI crude to $107.02 a barrel, a 30-day high
Ongoing14 earlier updates26 days
This story has run 15 times over 26 days, starting Aug 26.
- CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
- CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
- CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
- UpdateCIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen
- Russian drone hits ammunition depot near Kyiv, killing 38; four remain missing
- Russia's finance minister returned to the G20 in person for the first time since the Ukraine invasion
- Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin in Moscow Sept. 5, Zelensky in Kyiv Sept. 6, carrying a U.S. proposal to end the war
- UpdatePutin orders 72-hour halt to strikes on Kyiv while Witkoff and Kushner visit, after a three-hour Kremlin meeting
- UpdateWitkoff and Kushner hold first Kyiv talks of the war, agreeing on next steps but no terms; announcement promised in weeks
- UpdateWitkoff says Moscow-Kyiv trip produced 'substantive progress' on scheduling more talks, with no date set and no terms disclosed
- UpdateRussia resumed strikes on Kyiv after the truce, killing 7; Trump and Putin then talked for an hour
- UpdateTrump says Russia's president wants a Ukraine peace deal after their phone call
- UpdateVladimir Putin warned that sending European troops into Ukraine means war with Russia.
- Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy truce Kyiv calls conditional
- Trump and Zelensky agree to New York talks, expected Sept. 22 — this issue
Trump repeatedly asked Ukraine to stop striking Russian refineries, citing higher diesel prices, a person familiar with their call told Axios.
The talks. U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed during their Sunday, Sept. 20 call to meet at the United Nations’ annual gathering of world leaders. Ukraine said it was prepared to take serious steps to reduce the fighting. The White House sought steps from both Russia and Ukraine to restart negotiations, Axios reported.
The attacks. Ukraine said it launched more than 1,000 drones overnight into Sept. 20. Two people were reported killed and 20 wounded in the wider Moscow region during the attacks, according to PBS NewsHour/AP.
Catch up
- Sept. 5–6 — U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner visited Moscow and Kyiv with a peace proposal; temporary pauses in fighting protected the visits.
- Sept. 9 — Russia resumed strikes on Kyiv, killing seven people that day, after the envoys left without an agreement.
- Sept. 15 — Trump announced an energy truce (a halt to attacks on energy sites); Ukraine said its halt depended on Russia stopping attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
- Sept. 17–19 — Congress sent Trump legislation authorizing tariffs (taxes on imports) on buyers of Russian oil. He signed it, also requiring sanctions (government penalties) on Russian officials.
13 earlier issues
- CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
- CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
- CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
- UpdateCIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen
- Russian drone hits ammunition depot near Kyiv, killing 38; four remain missing
- Russia's finance minister returned to the G20 in person for the first time since the Ukraine invasion
- Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin in Moscow Sept. 5, Zelensky in Kyiv Sept. 6, carrying a U.S. proposal to end the war
- UpdatePutin orders 72-hour halt to strikes on Kyiv while Witkoff and Kushner visit, after a three-hour Kremlin meeting
- UpdateWitkoff and Kushner hold first Kyiv talks of the war, agreeing on next steps but no terms; announcement promised in weeks
- UpdateWitkoff says Moscow-Kyiv trip produced 'substantive progress' on scheduling more talks, with no date set and no terms disclosed
- UpdateRussia resumed strikes on Kyiv after the truce, killing 7; Trump and Putin then talked for an hour
- UpdateTrump says Russia's president wants a Ukraine peace deal after their phone call
- UpdateVladimir Putin warned that sending European troops into Ukraine means war with Russia.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng opened talks in New York on Sunday, Sept. 20.
The talks covered trade commitments, artificial intelligence and critical minerals. Bessent described the discussions as “focused, fulsome and constructive.” President Donald Trump will host Chinese President Xi Jinping at the White House for a summit and state dinner Thursday, Sept. 24.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Washington would monitor existing commitments while seeking better access to China's market for American farmers, manufacturers and workers.
Still open. Both sides are considering whether to extend their trade truce (a temporary pause in their trade dispute); neither government has announced extension terms.
On Sept. 19, Trump planned to greet Xi personally. Preparations for the leaders' meeting covered artificial intelligence and tariffs (taxes on imports) on liquefied natural gas and autos.
Quick bites9
Trump requests plan giving outside panel veto power over NIH research grants
THE GUARDIANNIH grants would need unanimous panel approval, including from budget director Russell Vought and NIH director Jay Bhattacharya, The Guardian reports. NIH now assesses proposals on scientific merit.
Trump proposes an ‘AI Force,’ opposes new restrictions and calls AI danger warnings a ‘hoax’.
POLITICOAbout two-thirds of Americans surveyed said advanced AI poses at least a moderate risk of destroying humanity, according to Politico.
Trump says proposed 250-foot arch would house drones, snipers and ammunition.
ABC NEWSICE agent shoots and wounds man in Austin, city officials say
REUTERSImmigration enforcementThe man remained hospitalized in serious but stable condition; Austin police and the Texas Rangers will jointly investigate the shooting. The excerpt does not say when it happened, what preceded it or whether it occurred during an immigration enforcement operation.
Some state attorneys general haven't agreed to settle Paramount's proposed $111 billion Warner Bros. acquisition.
LOS ANGELES TIMESChuck Grassley (Sen-R Iowa) urges Trump to halt diesel exports as prices reach $6.51/gallon
THE HILLUpdateGrassley sought cheaper fuel for farmers and truckers as Sunday’s diesel average hit $6.51 a gallon, up more than 40 cents in a week and from $3.70 a year earlier.
On Sept. 18, diesel reached $6.40 a gallon, while gasoline hit $4.44.
18 suspects in Haitian president’s assassination flown to U.S. for trial
WASHINGTON EXAMINERU.S. prosecutors say 30 people have been indicted in Jovenel Moïse’s 2021 killing. Investigations into those who financed or facilitated it will continue, they say.
North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles into waters off its east coast Sunday.
PBS NEWSHOURSouth Korea’s military said the missiles flew about 280 miles and more than 370 miles, respectively, according to AP.
Canada and France agree to develop and share space launch systems and ground reception facilities
PBS NEWSHOURTheir space agencies and defense ministries will lead the work, according to Canada’s prime minister’s office.
Elections22 races
The midterms · 43 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 93%, Kalshi 91%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 61%, Kalshi 60%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 1.4pp gap / 1.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 87% | 86% | 59% | 49% |
| 6 days ago | 89% | 86% | 59% | 52% |
| 5 days ago | 90% | 86% | 60% | 55% |
| 4 days ago | 90% | 89% | 61% | 56% |
| 3 days ago | 91% | 90% | 61% | 59% |
| 2 days ago | 93% | 89% | 61% | 59% |
| yesterday | 93% | 90% | 61% | 60% |
| today | 93% | 91% | 61% | 60% |
3 closest races
pOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 56% · Jon Husted 45%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$309K56.5%Kalshi1.8M contracts · 56%/57%52.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move-2.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$179K44.5%Kalshi1.8M contracts · 44%/45%48.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 56.5% 52.0% 44.5% 48.0% 6 days ago 56.5% 54.0% 43.5% 47.0% 5 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 46.0% 4 days ago 54.5% 53.0% 45.5% 47.0% 3 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 46.0% 2 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 45.0% yesterday 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 45.0% today 54.5% 56.5% 45.5% 44.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
sNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 56% · Aaron Ford 44%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$113K46%Kalshi272K contracts · 57%/58%56%venue gap10pp7-day move+7.5ppAaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$46.9K48%Kalshi510K contracts · 43%/44%45%venue gap3.0pp7-day move-2.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT. Day Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi 7 days ago 46.0% 56.0% 48.0% 45.0% 6 days ago 53.5% 54.0% 46.5% 46.0% 5 days ago 49.5% 55.0% 44.5% 46.0% 4 days ago 54.0% 55.0% 45.5% 45.0% 3 days ago 54.0% 56.0% 45.0% 44.0% 2 days ago 53.5% 56.0% 45.5% 45.0% yesterday 53.5% 55.0% 45.5% 46.0% today 53.5% 57.5% 45.5% 43.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
jOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 56.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 57% · Vivek Ramaswamy 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$93.5K55%Kalshi801K contracts · 57%/58%57%venue gap2.0pp7-day move+1.5ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$110K44%Kalshi861K contracts · 43%/44%47%venue gap3.0pp7-day move-2.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 55.0% 57.0% 44.0% 47.0% 6 days ago 55.0% 55.0% 44.0% 47.0% 5 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 46.0% 4 days ago 55.5% 54.0% 43.5% 47.0% 3 days ago 56.5% 56.0% 42.5% 45.0% 2 days ago 56.5% 58.0% 41.5% 43.0% yesterday 56.5% 58.0% 41.5% 43.0% today 56.5% 57.5% 41.5% 43.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 19 races
Senate9 of 10
mAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead after Sullivan lost about nine points in six days.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 74.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 26.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 74% · Dan Sullivan 26%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$366K65.5%Kalshi107K contracts · 73%/74%68.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+9.0ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$163K34.5%Kalshi88.1K contracts · 25%/27%—venue gap—7-day move-8.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 65.5% 68.0% 34.5% — 6 days ago 65.5% 68.0% 34.5% 37% 5 days ago 67.5% 66.0% 33.5% 37% 4 days ago 72.5% 68.0% 27.5% 35% 3 days ago 74.5% 69.0% 26.5% 31% 2 days ago 74.5% 70.0% 26.5% 34% yesterday 74.5% 70.0% 26.5% 31% today 74.5% 73.5% 26.5% 26% uGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.50%, Kalshi 93.45%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 5.75%, Kalshi 6.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 93% · Mike Collins 6.7%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$61.1K92.5%Kalshi392K contracts · 93%/94%93.4%venue gap0.9pp7-day move+1.0ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$91.9K6.65%Kalshi939K contracts · 6.7%/6.8%7.50%venue gap0.8pp7-day move-0.9ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 92.5% 93.40% 6.65% 7.50% 6 days ago 93.0% 93.50% 7.10% 7.00% 5 days ago 93.5% 93.80% 6.75% 6.60% 4 days ago 93.5% 93.10% 7.05% 6.80% 3 days ago 94.0% 94.00% 5.35% 7.50% 2 days ago 93.5% 94.00% 5.40% 6.00% yesterday 93.5% 93.20% 5.75% 7.00% today 93.5% 93.45% 5.75% 6.75% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
nIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 60.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 61% · Josh Turek 40%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$214K57%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 60%/61%61%venue gap4.0pp7-day move+3.5ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$193K41.5%Kalshi1.7M contracts · 40%/41%39.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 57.0% 61.0% 41.5% 39.0% 6 days ago 57.5% 62.0% 40.5% 39.0% 5 days ago 60.5% 61.0% 39.5% 39.0% 4 days ago 60.5% 61.0% 39.5% 40.0% 3 days ago 61.0% 61.0% 39.0% 40.0% 2 days ago 60.5% 61.0% 39.5% 40.0% yesterday 60.5% 60.0% 39.5% 40.0% today 60.5% 60.5% 39.5% 40.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
kMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 33.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 68% · Susan Collins 33%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$860K70.5%Kalshi2.6M contracts · 67%/68%66.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move-1.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$575K30.5%Kalshi3.0M contracts · 33%/34%33.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 70.5% 66.0% 30.5% 33.0% 6 days ago 70.5% 67.0% 29.5% 35.0% 5 days ago 70.5% 66.0% 29.5% 35.0% 4 days ago 70.5% 68.0% 29.5% 33.0% 3 days ago 69.5% 67.0% 30.5% 33.0% 2 days ago 69.5% 68.0% 30.5% 33.0% yesterday 69.5% 67.0% 30.5% 34.0% today 69.5% 67.5% 30.5% 33.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
oMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about six points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 66.5%, Kalshi 66.0%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 34.5%, Kalshi 34.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 66% · Mike Rogers 35%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$480K61.5%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 65%/67%61.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+5.0ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$372K39.5%Kalshi2.3M contracts · 34%/35%41.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-5.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 61.5% 61% 39.5% 41.0% 6 days ago 66.5% 62% 33.5% 39.0% 5 days ago 64.0% 62% 35.0% 39.0% 4 days ago 65.5% 65% 35.5% 36.0% 3 days ago 65.5% 65% 34.5% 37.0% 2 days ago 66.5% 65% 33.5% 37.0% yesterday 66.5% 66% 34.5% 34.0% today 66.5% 66% 34.5% 34.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
vNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 68.0%, Kalshi 68.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 68% · Dan Osborn 32%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$125K67.5%Kalshi760K contracts · 68%/69%70.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+0.5ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$75.2K32.5%Kalshi540K contracts · 31%/32%27.0%venue gap5.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 67.5% 70.0% 32.5% 27.0% 6 days ago 67.5% 70.0% 32.5% 30.0% 5 days ago 67.5% 69.0% 32.5% 31.0% 4 days ago 67.5% 70.0% 32.5% 31.0% 3 days ago 67.5% 69.0% 32.5% 31.0% 2 days ago 68.0% 69.0% 32.5% 31.0% yesterday 68.0% 69.0% 32.5% 32.0% today 68.0% 68.5% 32.5% 31.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
wNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 82.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 82% · John E. Sununu 18%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$107K80.5%Kalshi337K contracts · 82%/83%85.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move0.0ppJohn E. Sununu (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$80.3K17.5%Kalshi577K contracts · 17%/18%16.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago 80.5% 85.0% 17.5% 16.0% 6 days ago 82.0% 82.0% 18.5% 18.0% 5 days ago 84.0% 82.0% 16.5% 19.0% 4 days ago 80.5% 82.0% 19.5% 19.0% 3 days ago 80.5% 80.0% 19.5% 20.0% 2 days ago 80.5% 84.0% 19.5% 18.0% yesterday 80.5% 84.0% 19.5% 18.0% today 80.5% 82.5% 19.5% 17.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
tNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.4pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 93.5%, Kalshi 92.6%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 6.50%, Kalshi 7.95%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.4pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 93% · Michael Whatley 7.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$70.8K91.5%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 93%/93%92.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+2.0ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$72.2K9%Kalshi802K contracts · 7.9%/8.0%9%venue gap0.0pp7-day move-2.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 91.5% 92.0% 9.0% 9.00% 6 days ago 91.5% 92.3% 8.5% 8.80% 5 days ago 91.5% 92.2% 8.5% 8.10% 4 days ago 92.5% 91.9% 8.5% 8.70% 3 days ago 92.5% 92.2% 8.5% 7.40% 2 days ago 93.5% 92.6% 6.5% 8.00% yesterday 93.5% 92.7% 6.5% 8.00% today 93.5% 92.6% 6.5% 7.95% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
lTexas Senate
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).
The Democratic side holds a clear lead after the Republican side lost about seven points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: James Talarico 60% · Ken Paxton 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
James Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$591K55.5%Kalshi5.7M contracts · 59%/60%51.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move+4.0ppKen Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$750K45.5%Kalshi7.7M contracts · 40%/41%50.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move-4.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT. Day James Talarico · Polymarket James Talarico · Kalshi Ken Paxton · Polymarket Ken Paxton · Kalshi 7 days ago 55.5% 51.0% 45.5% 50.0% 6 days ago 56.5% 52.0% 44.5% 50.0% 5 days ago 57.5% 54.0% 41.5% 47.0% 4 days ago 59.5% 54.0% 41.5% 47.0% 3 days ago 59.5% 57.0% 41.5% 44.0% 2 days ago 59.5% 58.0% 41.5% 43.0% yesterday 59.5% 60.0% 41.5% 42.0% today 59.5% 59.5% 41.5% 40.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors10 of 12
yAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
Wilson holds a clear lead, but no race here has moved more this week: it is down about fourteen points.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 11.0%, Kalshi 12.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 0.15%, Kalshi 0.35%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 11% · Tom Begich 0.3%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$179K27%Kalshi54.0K contracts · 12%/13%—venue gap—7-day move-16ppTom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$163K1.35%Kalshi243K contracts · 0.3%/0.4%—venue gap—7-day move-1.2ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT. Day Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi 7 days ago 27.0% — 1.35% — 6 days ago 26.5% 24.0% 1.30% 0.30% 5 days ago 24.0% 25.0% 1.20% 0.30% 4 days ago 23.5% 24.0% 0.80% 0.30% 3 days ago 13.5% 26.0% 0.40% 0.30% 2 days ago 13.0% 21.0% 0.15% 0.30% yesterday 11.0% 13.0% 0.15% 0.40% today 11.0% 12.5% 0.15% 0.35% aaArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.5%, Kalshi 87.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 88% · Andy Biggs 13%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$32.3K87.5%Kalshi333K contracts · 87%/88%87.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$36.7K12.5%Kalshi259K contracts · 12%/13%14.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 87.5% 87.0% 12.5% 14.0% 6 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 13.0% 5 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 12.0% 4 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 13.0% 3 days ago 87.5% 89.0% 12.5% 14.0% 2 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 13.0% yesterday 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 14.0% today 87.5% 87.5% 12.5% 12.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aeFlorida governor
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 79.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 20.5%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 80% · David Jolly 21%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$48.5K81.5%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 79%/80%80.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-2.0ppDavid Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$39.7K18.5%Kalshi541K contracts · 21%/22%20.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT. Day Byron Donalds · Polymarket Byron Donalds · Kalshi David Jolly · Polymarket David Jolly · Kalshi 7 days ago 81.5% 80.0% 18.5% 20.0% 6 days ago 80.5% 81.0% 19.5% 21.0% 5 days ago 79.5% 81.0% 20.0% 20.0% 4 days ago 79.5% 80.0% 20.5% 20.0% 3 days ago 79.5% 78.0% 20.5% 22.0% 2 days ago 79.5% 79.0% 20.5% 22.0% yesterday 79.5% 80.0% 20.5% 22.0% today 79.5% 79.5% 20.5% 21.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
rGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 57% · Rick Jackson 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$42.4K58%Kalshi315K contracts · 56%/57%54%venue gap4.0pp7-day move+2.5ppRick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$47.0K40.5%Kalshi456K contracts · 43%/44%46.0%venue gap5.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT. Day Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi 7 days ago 58.0% 54.0% 40.5% 46.0% 6 days ago 56.5% 56.0% 43.5% 43.0% 5 days ago 56.5% 56.0% 43.5% 45.0% 4 days ago 56.5% 53.0% 43.5% 48.0% 3 days ago 56.5% 53.0% 43.5% 47.0% 2 days ago 60.5% 55.0% 39.5% 45.0% yesterday 60.5% 55.0% 39.5% 46.0% today 60.5% 56.5% 39.5% 43.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
xIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 77.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 23.5%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 79% · Zach Lahn 22%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$34.9K77%Kalshi356K contracts · 79%/80%78%venue gap1.0pp7-day move+0.5ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$45.8K23.5%Kalshi348K contracts · 21%/22%24.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 77.0% 78.0% 23.5% 24.0% 6 days ago 77.0% 77.0% 24.0% 23.0% 5 days ago 76.5% 79.0% 23.0% 23.0% 4 days ago 77.5% 79.0% 23.5% 21.0% 3 days ago 77.5% 79.0% 23.5% 21.0% 2 days ago 77.5% 79.0% 23.5% 23.0% yesterday 77.5% 80.0% 23.5% 22.0% today 77.5% 79.5% 23.5% 21.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
zMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 92.00%, Kalshi 91.45%; John James (R): Polymarket 8.5%, Kalshi 8.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 92% · John James 8.3%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$50.6K92.0%Kalshi75.0K contracts · 91%/92%92.6%venue gap0.6pp7-day move0.0ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$157K6.5%Kalshi139K contracts · 7.8%/8.2%—venue gap—7-day move+2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 92.0% 92.60% 6.5% — 6 days ago 92.0% 92.80% 6.5% 12.0% 5 days ago 92.0% 89.00% 9.0% 12.0% 4 days ago 92.0% 92.20% 8.5% 8.6% 3 days ago 91.5% 92.50% 8.5% 8.8% 2 days ago 92.0% 91.60% 8.5% 7.7% yesterday 92.0% 92.70% 8.5% 9.6% today 92.0% 91.45% 8.5% 8.0% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
acNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.6pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.50%, Kalshi 92.85%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 6.50%, Kalshi 7.15%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.6pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 93% · Bruce Blakeman 7.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$52.9K93.5%Kalshi375K contracts · 93%/93%92.2%venue gap1.3pp7-day move+1.0ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$69.8K6.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 6.8%/7.5%8.9%venue gap2.4pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 93.5% 92.20% 6.5% 8.90% 6 days ago 93.5% 92.30% 6.5% 8.50% 5 days ago 93.5% 92.30% 6.5% 8.20% 4 days ago 94.0% 92.50% 6.5% 7.90% 3 days ago 94.0% 92.60% 6.5% 8.10% 2 days ago 94.5% 93.10% 6.5% 7.80% yesterday 94.5% 92.50% 6.5% 7.40% today 94.5% 92.85% 6.5% 7.15% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
adPennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.6pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.60%, Kalshi 96.95%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.6%, Kalshi 3.2%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 97% · Stacy Garrity 3.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$7.5K97%Kalshi102K contracts · 97%/97%—venue gap—7-day move-0.4ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$42.4K2.4%Kalshi401K contracts · 3.0%/3.4%—venue gap—7-day move+0.2ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 97.00% — 2.40% — 6 days ago 96.60% — 2.55% 3.4% 5 days ago 96.25% 97.10% 2.95% 3.3% 4 days ago 96.95% 97.20% 2.60% 2.9% 3 days ago 96.55% 96.50% 2.60% 3.4% 2 days ago 96.65% 97.50% 2.60% 3.4% yesterday 96.60% 96.80% 2.60% 3.5% today 96.60% 96.95% 2.60% 3.2% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
abTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead after losing about four points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 78.05%, Kalshi 79.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 20.5%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 79% · Gina Hinojosa 21%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$58.0K83.3%Kalshi241K contracts · 79%/80%83.0%venue gap0.3pp7-day move-5.2ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$67.8K16%Kalshi794K contracts · 21%/22%19%venue gap3.0pp7-day move+4.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 83.30% 83.0% 16.0% 19.0% 6 days ago 82.90% 82.0% 16.5% 18.0% 5 days ago 77.45% 84.0% 22.0% 17.0% 4 days ago 78.65% 83.0% 22.5% 18.0% 3 days ago 80.00% 77.0% 21.0% 25.0% 2 days ago 78.05% 78.0% 20.5% 22.0% yesterday 78.05% 79.0% 20.5% 21.0% today 78.05% 79.5% 20.5% 21.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
qWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 83.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 15.5%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 84% · Tom Tiffany 17%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$316K83.5%Kalshi472K contracts · 83%/84%81.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$278K16.5%Kalshi734K contracts · 17%/18%19.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 83.5% 81.0% 16.5% 19.0% 6 days ago 83.5% 80.0% 16.5% 20.0% 5 days ago 83.5% 80.0% 16.5% 21.0% 4 days ago 83.5% 80.0% 15.5% 19.0% 3 days ago 83.5% 82.0% 15.5% 20.0% 2 days ago 83.5% 81.0% 15.5% 20.0% yesterday 83.5% 85.0% 15.5% 16.0% today 83.5% 83.5% 15.5% 17.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
Not news news1 story
The restrictions were intended to limit dicamba evaporating into the air and washing off fields.
EPA asked Bayer to select restrictions on its dicamba weedkiller, then used the company’s choices in a proposed rule. Internal documents released in litigation reveal the exchange, the Guardian reported on Sept. 20, 2026. EPA defended the process, saying companies may suggest protections but ‘the registrant does not dictate terms.’
Where it stands. EPA’s current approval permits spraying dicamba on growing cotton and soybeans during the 2026 and 2027 growing seasons; other uses were already allowed. EPA’s approval explanation. The material provided does not establish whether the current approval retained Bayer’s choices from the proposed rule.