News news5 stories
Ongoing3 earlier updates3 days
This story has run 4 times over 3 days, starting Sep 21.
- UpdateU.S. and China open New York talks on trade, AI and critical minerals
- US proposes an AI incident hotline with China; next talks set for Shenzhen in November
- UpdateTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent pitched China an emergency AI hotline before summit talks
- UpdateBessent says U.S. and China agreed to extend trade truce from Nov. 10 to Jan. 10 — this issue
Trump personally greeted Xi Jinping at Joint Base Andrews on Sept. 23, 2026, for the Chinese president’s first U.S. state visit since September 2015.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday, Sept. 23, that the United States and China agreed to extend their trade truce from Nov. 10, 2026, to Jan. 10, 2027. The deal, reached in South Korea in 2025, temporarily limits tariffs (taxes on imports) between the countries. AFP reporting.
What next. Trump and Xi have private talks and a state dinner scheduled for Thursday, Sept. 24. Trade, artificial intelligence, Taiwan, Iran and political prisoners are on the agenda. The arrival ceremony itself produced no agreement between the leaders. White House schedule.
Catch up
- Aug. 18 — The United Arab Emirates halted trade and financial transactions with Iran after alleging an Iranian missile incident; Tehran denied firing the missiles.
- Aug. 24–26 — Washington imposed sanctions (economic penalties) on nearly 60 Iranian targets during this period and threatened Iran’s trading partners with penalties; China rejected the threat.
- Aug. 31 — Bessent promised weekly penalties against foreign firms doing business with Iran.
- Sept. 21 — U.S. and Chinese officials opened New York talks on trade, artificial intelligence and critical minerals before Xi’s Washington visit.
- Sept. 23 — A proposed emergency communication channel for artificial intelligence incidents emerged as a possible agreement between the leaders.
Officials are discussing lower import taxes on Chinese consumer goods and U.S. agricultural and energy exports; those cuts are not agreed.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2026, that the United States and China extended their trade truce by two months, from Nov. 10, 2026, to Jan. 10, 2027. He announced the agreement after meeting Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Washington. The extension gives negotiators more time to pursue a broader economic deal. Reuters
What next. Bessent said the countries could reach a larger agreement or extend the existing one again: “I don’t know whether a bigger deal can be done.” Bloomberg
In October 2025, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping reached the original trade truce in Busan, South Korea. By Sept. 21, 2026, U.S. and Chinese officials had opened New York talks on trade, artificial intelligence and critical minerals (materials needed for products such as electric-car motors and military equipment). The talks preceded a planned White House summit on Sept. 24, 2026.
Pezeshkian told the UN on Wednesday, Sept. 23, that any agreement must end the blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, NBC News reported.
Iran’s terms. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran remained open to talks but would not negotiate under threats, according to NBC News. He spoke at the UN General Assembly (the annual gathering where world leaders present their positions).
The walkout. The sole US delegate left as Pezeshkian displayed photographs of children killed in the Minab school strike and of Ali Khamenei, Iran’s former supreme leader, killed on Feb. 28. Trump had threatened to “annihilate the Islamic Republic” at the UN on Sept. 22, according to NBC News.
Where it stands. Trump said a deal was likely after November’s US congressional elections, without providing details.
On Sept. 18, the US granted visas to Pezeshkian and Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, while barring the Palestinian delegation for a second year. On Sept. 22, the UN General Assembly opened with the Iran and Ukraine wars on its agenda.
Ongoing2 earlier updates2 days
This story has run 3 times over 2 days, starting Sep 22.
- UpdateCNN, MS NOW and Politico sue Trump over White House ban; TV pool suspends coverage
- UpdateFive television networks suspend White House pool coverage as Trump launches 24/7 streaming feed
- UpdateCNN, MS NOW and Politico remain barred from White House after Judge Kelly ends hearing without ruling — this issue
President Donald Trump’s ban left 78 journalists with press passes without access as of Sept. 23, according to Politico.
The hearing. U.S. District Judge Kelly said the White House had not followed required procedures before withdrawing the outlets’ access. He questioned how letters sent after reporters lost their press passes could give them advance notice of the rules. CBS News
The government’s case. The Justice Department cited national security and said the decisions to withdraw access were not yet final. It asked Kelly to wait until the outlets could respond. Kelly said he would decide ‘as soon as I can’; he set no ruling date. Politico
What next. The outlets have until Friday, Sept. 25, at 5 p.m. Eastern to contest the decision. The White House’s letters say the loss of access becomes final if the outlets do not respond. That deadline does not end the lawsuit. White House letter
Catch up
On Sept. 18, Trump announced the ban on CNN, MS NOW and Politico over their coverage. Reporters were denied entry the next day (Sept. 19). On Sept. 21, the outlets sued. That day, the five-network television pool (networks that share coverage of presidential events) stopped providing that coverage in protest.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright warns that stranded diesel would force refineries to cut production, raising gasoline and jet fuel prices.
On Sept. 23, the White House denied Politico’s report that officials were preparing a 90-day diesel export ban, according to The Hill. Donald Trump had said on Sept. 22 that he had asked his team to stop diesel exports. Wright ruled out a complete halt.
What next. Wright said a policy announcement would come later in the week, with the aim of increasing domestic diesel supply while keeping refineries running at full capacity. He did not specify the measures, the Washington Examiner reported.
On Sept. 22, diesel reached a reported $6.51 per gallon as Republicans pressed Trump to stop exports.
Quick bites17
10-year Treasury yield closes at 5.11%, its highest since 2007
THE HILLThe Treasury yield rose Wednesday, adding pressure for higher mortgage and business borrowing costs.
Navy says eight Lincoln strike group sailors attempted suicide during its 10-month deployment.
UpdateCBS NEWS: Navy says eight sailors attempted suicide during the Lincoln strike group’s 10-month deployment, which included combat against Iran and covered the USS Abraham Lincoln’s crew, air wing and other strike group ships.
On Aug. 17, Central Command said Lincoln had among the Navy’s fewest mental health cases after 260 days at sea; the supplied text does not establish a shared scope or provide comparison figures.
Trump administration plans to end ACA coverage for 760,000 people, alleging fraud
ABC NEWSVice President JD Vance claims the removals will save money; another 419,000 enrollments will face eligibility checks.
ShinyHunters claims theft of private data on roughly 38,000 FBI employees and applicants; FBI investigates.
PBS NEWSHOURThe group threatens publication unless the FBI retracts a May advisory describing it as a criminal group focused on extortion.
OpenAI, Anthropic and Hugging Face leaders urge UN Security Council to back enforceable AI controls.
AXIOSThe supplied account does not name the leaders or explain what controls or council action they sought.
Ongoing2
This story has run 3 times over 11 days, starting Sep 13.
- Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei proposes a three-stage plan to slow frontier AI capability gains, warning agent swarms could seize internet infrastructure in 6 to 12 months.
- UpdateFour paid AI subscribers sue Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceXAI and Google over agreeing to slow AI down
- OpenAI, Anthropic and Hugging Face leaders urge UN Security Council to back enforceable AI controls. — this issue
Marist poll finds Democrats leading Republicans 53%–41% among registered voters for Congress.
Update2026 midtermsDemocrats lead Republicans 53%–41% for Congress in the PBS News/NPR/Marist poll of 1,280 registered voters, conducted Sept. 14–15. The margin of error is ±3.8 percentage points; 45% say their vote mainly opposes Trump, versus 24% supporting him.
Currently showing Two questions, two distinct gapsTwo questions, two distinct gapsTrump's approval is 37.6% in Nate Silver's polling average.
NATE SILVERUpdate2026 midterms[PREVIOUSLY]
Iowa judge dismisses Trump's lawsuit over Selzer poll showing Harris ahead in 2024.
REUTERS2026 midtermsJudge Scott Beattie ruled poll coverage is protected political speech, not a commercial product subject to Iowa's consumer fraud law.
Trump's Board of Peace proposes $2.45 billion for 66 Gaza recovery projects over six months.
BBC NEWSGaza and HamasThe proposal seeks donor funding for infrastructure, education and health projects, the Associated Press reports.
US invites Putin to December’s G20 at Trump’s Miami golf club
THE NEW YORK TIMESRussia-Ukraine warPutin has skipped recent G20 summits. The Kremlin said it was grateful and would discuss the invitation through diplomatic channels, without confirming Putin would attend.
Zelensky (President, Ukraine) urges countries to limit trade with Russia to cut war funding
NBC NEWSRussia-Ukraine warWednesday’s attacks came before Ukrainian President Zelensky’s U.N. appeal, NBC News reported.
Ongoing16
This story has run 17 times over 29 days, starting Aug 26.
- CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
- CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
- CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
- UpdateCIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen
- Russian drone hits ammunition depot near Kyiv, killing 38; four remain missing
- Russia's finance minister returned to the G20 in person for the first time since the Ukraine invasion
- Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin in Moscow Sept. 5, Zelensky in Kyiv Sept. 6, carrying a U.S. proposal to end the war
- UpdatePutin orders 72-hour halt to strikes on Kyiv while Witkoff and Kushner visit, after a three-hour Kremlin meeting
- UpdateWitkoff and Kushner hold first Kyiv talks of the war, agreeing on next steps but no terms; announcement promised in weeks
- UpdateWitkoff says Moscow-Kyiv trip produced 'substantive progress' on scheduling more talks, with no date set and no terms disclosed
- UpdateRussia resumed strikes on Kyiv after the truce, killing 7; Trump and Putin then talked for an hour
- UpdateTrump says Russia's president wants a Ukraine peace deal after their phone call
- UpdateVladimir Putin warned that sending European troops into Ukraine means war with Russia.
- Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy truce Kyiv calls conditional
- Trump and Zelensky agree to New York talks, expected Sept. 22
- UpdateZelensky asks Trump for a mutual halt on energy and port strikes
- Zelensky (President, Ukraine) urges countries to limit trade with Russia to cut war funding — this issue
Fed Governor Michael Barr says more rate increases are likely to counter inflation
THE HILLInflation and the FedWhite House response:
- Hassett directed his criticism at Fed officials not appointed by Trump.
Ongoing6
This story has run 7 times over 12 days, starting Sep 12.
- Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the year, lifting September Fed rate hike odds above 80%
- Trump threatens trade cutoff with some nations unless Fed lowers rates despite 3.4% inflation
- Update10-year Treasury yield hit 5.014% Monday, Sept. 14, first time since October 2023
- Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark rate a quarter point on Wednesday, Sept. 16, its first hike in three years.
- UpdateFed raises its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since July 2023
- UpdateChicago Fed's Goolsbee says getting inflation to 2% will be 'painful' and require pushing employment below target
- Fed Governor Michael Barr says more rate increases are likely to counter inflation — this issue
Iraq, Oman and Azerbaijan suspend some Iran flights after US sanctions threats.
Iran warTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatened to bar firms from the dollar system for supplying Iranian airlines with fuel, landing services or ticket sales, Oman Observer reports.
DHS officials say ICE officer who shot Austin driver wasn’t wearing his body camera
THE ATLANTICUpdateImmigration enforcementHis partner’s camera was recording, and a judge blocked Garcés Pérez’s deportation until a Sept. 30 hearing. On Sept. 22, Garcés Pérez remained detained with the bullet still in his back.
Guatemalan worker dies in crash fleeing attempted ICE stop in Grand Rapids
NBC NEWSImmigration enforcementGretchen Whitmer (Gov-D Michigan) ordered an independent state police review after Mario David Coronado Juárez, 36, died Sept. 20.
Australia’s prime minister says an OpenAI agent breached a government health website
REUTERSAnthony Albanese called the alleged June 2026 incident ‘obviously unacceptable.’
RFK Jr.'s ethics disclosure reveals $4M in book advances from MAHA allies and free travel
THE GUARDIAN
Missouri redistricting opponents ask Supreme Court to block map favoring Republicans in seven seats
FOX NEWSUpdate2026 midtermsFOX NEWS: People Not Politicians asks Supreme Court to block Missouri map favoring Republicans in seven of eight House seats, up from six
Fox News reported that its late Tuesday request brought the dispute before the justices a third time. Absentee voting has begun under 2022 districts.
Elections22 races
The midterms · 40 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 93%, Kalshi 92%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 67%, Kalshi 65%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 0.4pp gap / 2.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 90% | 89% | 61% | 56% |
| 6 days ago | 91% | 90% | 61% | 59% |
| 5 days ago | 93% | 89% | 61% | 59% |
| 4 days ago | 93% | 90% | 64% | 60% |
| 3 days ago | 93% | 91% | 66% | 60% |
| 2 days ago | 93% | 90% | 67% | 61% |
| yesterday | 93% | 91% | 67% | 63% |
| today | 93% | 92% | 67% | 65% |
3 closest races
abNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and it is a dead heat — the two sides are priced within four points of each other.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 53% · Aaron Ford 47%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$116K54%Kalshi275K contracts · 53%/54%55%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-3.5ppAaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$53.4K45.5%Kalshi517K contracts · 46%/47%45.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+5.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT. Day Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi 7 days ago 54.0% 55.0% 45.5% 45.0% 6 days ago 54.0% 56.0% 45.0% 44.0% 5 days ago 53.5% 56.0% 45.5% 45.0% 4 days ago 55.5% 55.0% 45.5% 46.0% 3 days ago 52.0% 57.0% 48.5% 43.0% 2 days ago 50.5% 57.0% 50.5% 44.0% yesterday 50.5% 55.0% 50.5% 46.0% today 50.5% 53.5% 50.5% 46.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
wIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead after the Democratic side gained about seven points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 51.5%, Kalshi 55.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 47.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 55% · Josh Turek 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$257K60.5%Kalshi1.4M contracts · 55%/56%61.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-9.0ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$295K39.5%Kalshi1.9M contracts · 45%/46%40.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+8.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 60.5% 61.0% 39.5% 40.0% 6 days ago 61.0% 61.0% 39.0% 40.0% 5 days ago 60.5% 61.0% 39.5% 40.0% 4 days ago 57.5% 60.0% 43.5% 40.0% 3 days ago 50.5% 60.0% 49.5% 40.0% 2 days ago 51.5% 61.0% 47.5% 40.0% yesterday 51.5% 54.0% 47.5% 45.0% today 51.5% 55.5% 47.5% 45.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aaGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 54% · Rick Jackson 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$65.7K56.5%Kalshi511K contracts · 53%/54%53.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move-1.0ppRick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$56.9K43.5%Kalshi501K contracts · 46%/47%48.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT. Day Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi 7 days ago 56.5% 53.0% 43.5% 48.0% 6 days ago 56.5% 53.0% 43.5% 47.0% 5 days ago 60.5% 55.0% 39.5% 45.0% 4 days ago 60.5% 55.0% 39.5% 46.0% 3 days ago 60.5% 58.0% 39.5% 43.0% 2 days ago 55.5% 60.0% 44.5% 41.0% yesterday 55.5% 60.0% 44.5% 42.0% today 55.5% 53.5% 44.5% 46.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 19 races
Senate9 of 10
vAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead after Sullivan lost about six points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 75.0%, Kalshi 74.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 24.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 75% · Dan Sullivan 25%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$592K72.5%Kalshi142K contracts · 74%/75%68.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move+2.5ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$247K27.5%Kalshi110K contracts · 26%/27%35.0%venue gap7.5pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 72.5% 68.0% 27.5% 35.0% 6 days ago 74.5% 69.0% 26.5% 31.0% 5 days ago 74.5% 70.0% 26.5% 34.0% 4 days ago 73.5% 70.0% 26.5% 31.0% 3 days ago 80.5% 73.0% 19.5% 28.0% 2 days ago 77.5% 73.0% 21.5% 28.0% yesterday 75.5% 78.0% 24.5% 22.0% today 75.0% 74.5% 24.5% 26.5% adGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.3pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 94.5%, Kalshi 94.3%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 5.40%, Kalshi 5.65%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.3pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 94% · Mike Collins 5.6%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$70.7K93.5%Kalshi404K contracts · 94%/95%93.1%venue gap0.4pp7-day move+1.0ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$92.0K7.05%Kalshi967K contracts · 5.5%/5.8%6.80%venue gap0.2pp7-day move-1.6ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 93.5% 93.1% 7.05% 6.80% 6 days ago 94.0% 94.0% 5.35% 7.50% 5 days ago 93.5% 94.0% 5.40% 6.00% 4 days ago 93.5% 93.2% 5.85% 7.00% 3 days ago 94.5% 93.3% 5.85% 6.80% 2 days ago 94.5% 93.9% 5.40% 7.00% yesterday 94.5% 93.4% 5.40% 6.10% today 94.5% 94.3% 5.40% 5.65% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
tMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 72.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 73% · Susan Collins 27%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$936K70.5%Kalshi2.7M contracts · 72%/73%68.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+3.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$613K29.5%Kalshi3.1M contracts · 27%/28%33.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 70.5% 68.0% 29.5% 33.0% 6 days ago 69.5% 67.0% 30.5% 33.0% 5 days ago 69.5% 68.0% 30.5% 33.0% 4 days ago 70.0% 67.0% 30.5% 34.0% 3 days ago 73.5% 68.0% 26.5% 34.0% 2 days ago 73.5% 68.0% 26.5% 33.0% yesterday 73.5% 72.0% 26.5% 30.0% today 73.5% 72.5% 26.5% 27.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
xMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: the Republican side is down about nine points.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 27%, Kalshi 27%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 73% · Mike Rogers 27%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$570K65.5%Kalshi1.8M contracts · 73%/74%65.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+7.0ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$443K35.5%Kalshi2.4M contracts · 26%/28%36.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-8.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 65.5% 65.0% 35.5% 36% 6 days ago 65.5% 65.0% 34.5% 37% 5 days ago 66.5% 65.0% 33.5% 37% 4 days ago 67.0% 66.0% 34.0% 34% 3 days ago 75.5% 67.0% 24.5% 35% 2 days ago 72.5% 67.0% 27.0% 34% yesterday 72.5% 72.0% 27.0% 29% today 72.5% 73.5% 27.0% 27% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aeNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 34.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 68% · Dan Osborn 34%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$150K67.5%Kalshi793K contracts · 67%/68%70.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$89.4K32.5%Kalshi606K contracts · 33%/35%31.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 67.5% 70.0% 32.5% 31% 6 days ago 67.5% 69.0% 32.5% 31% 5 days ago 68.0% 69.0% 32.5% 31% 4 days ago 68.5% 69.0% 32.5% 32% 3 days ago 67.5% 69.0% 32.5% 32% 2 days ago 67.5% 69.0% 32.5% 31% yesterday 67.5% 68.0% 32.5% 31% today 67.5% 67.5% 32.5% 34% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
afNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about five points in a week.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 85.5%, Kalshi 85.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 14.0%, Kalshi 15.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 86% · John E. Sununu 15%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$114K80.5%Kalshi350K contracts · 85%/86%82.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+5.0ppJohn E. Sununu (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$112K19.5%Kalshi625K contracts · 15%/16%19.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-5.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago 80.5% 82.0% 19.5% 19.0% 6 days ago 80.5% 80.0% 19.5% 20.0% 5 days ago 80.5% 84.0% 19.5% 18.0% 4 days ago 82.5% 84.0% 17.5% 18.0% 3 days ago 85.0% 83.0% 14.5% 17.0% 2 days ago 85.5% 83.0% 14.0% 18.0% yesterday 85.5% 85.0% 14.0% 17.0% today 85.5% 85.5% 14.0% 15.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
acNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.2pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 94.5%, Kalshi 93.3%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 6.5%, Kalshi 6.7%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 93% · Michael Whatley 6.7%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$94.8K92.5%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 93%/94%91.9%venue gap0.6pp7-day move+2.0ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$80.6K8.5%Kalshi857K contracts · 6.5%/6.9%8.7%venue gap0.2pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 92.5% 91.9% 8.5% 8.7% 6 days ago 92.5% 92.2% 8.5% 7.4% 5 days ago 93.5% 92.6% 6.5% 8.0% 4 days ago 92.5% 92.7% 7.5% 8.0% 3 days ago 94.5% 92.1% 6.5% 8.0% 2 days ago 94.5% 92.7% 6.5% 7.9% yesterday 94.5% 93.0% 6.5% 7.0% today 94.5% 93.3% 6.5% 6.7% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
yOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead after the Republican side lost about eight points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 62.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 60% · Jon Husted 40%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$418K54.5%Kalshi1.9M contracts · 59%/60%53.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+8.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$299K45.5%Kalshi2.1M contracts · 40%/41%47.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-9.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 54.5% 53.0% 45.5% 47.0% 6 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 46.0% 5 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 45.0% 4 days ago 60.5% 55.0% 40.5% 45.0% 3 days ago 62.5% 57.0% 36.5% 44.0% 2 days ago 62.5% 61.0% 36.5% 40.0% yesterday 62.5% 60.0% 36.5% 40.0% today 62.5% 59.5% 36.5% 40.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
uTexas Senate
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).
The Democratic side holds a clear lead after gaining about four points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate
Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 62.5%, Kalshi 58.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: James Talarico 59% · Ken Paxton 42%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
James Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$680K59.5%Kalshi5.9M contracts · 58%/59%54.0%venue gap5.5pp7-day move+3.0ppKen Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$783K41.5%Kalshi8.1M contracts · 42%/43%47.0%venue gap5.5pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT. Day James Talarico · Polymarket James Talarico · Kalshi Ken Paxton · Polymarket Ken Paxton · Kalshi 7 days ago 59.5% 54.0% 41.5% 47.0% 6 days ago 59.5% 57.0% 41.5% 44.0% 5 days ago 59.5% 58.0% 41.5% 43.0% 4 days ago 62.5% 60.0% 39.5% 42.0% 3 days ago 61.5% 60.0% 38.5% 41.0% 2 days ago 62.5% 59.0% 38.5% 42.0% yesterday 62.5% 59.0% 38.5% 42.0% today 62.5% 58.5% 38.5% 42.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors10 of 12
ahAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
Wilson holds a clear lead after losing about eight points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.8pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 16%, Kalshi 16%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.10%, Kalshi 0.35%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.8pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 16% · Tom Begich 0.7%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$182K23.5%Kalshi56.0K contracts · 15%/17%24.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-7.5ppTom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$166K0.8%Kalshi244K contracts · 0.3%/0.4%0.3%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+0.3ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT. Day Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi 7 days ago 23.5% 24% 0.80% 0.30% 6 days ago 13.5% 26% 0.40% 0.30% 5 days ago 13.0% 21% 0.15% 0.30% 4 days ago 14.5% 13% 0.65% 0.40% 3 days ago 15.5% 12% 0.80% 0.30% 2 days ago 15.5% 13% 1.05% 0.30% yesterday 16.0% 16% 1.10% 0.30% today 16.0% 16% 1.10% 0.35% ajArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 89.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 11.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 89% · Andy Biggs 11%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$37.1K87.5%Kalshi340K contracts · 89%/90%88.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$45.8K12.5%Kalshi271K contracts · 11%/12%13.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 13.0% 6 days ago 87.5% 89.0% 12.5% 14.0% 5 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 13.0% 4 days ago 88.5% 88.0% 11.5% 14.0% 3 days ago 88.5% 88.0% 11.5% 13.0% 2 days ago 88.5% 88.0% 12.5% 13.0% yesterday 88.5% 89.0% 10.5% 12.0% today 88.5% 89.5% 10.5% 11.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
anFlorida governor
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead after the Democratic side gained about seven points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 72.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 73% · David Jolly 28%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$84.2K79.5%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 72%/73%80.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-7.0ppDavid Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$94.4K20.5%Kalshi653K contracts · 27%/28%20.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+7.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT. Day Byron Donalds · Polymarket Byron Donalds · Kalshi David Jolly · Polymarket David Jolly · Kalshi 7 days ago 79.5% 80.0% 20.5% 20.0% 6 days ago 79.5% 78.0% 20.5% 22.0% 5 days ago 79.5% 79.0% 20.5% 22.0% 4 days ago 79.5% 80.0% 20.5% 22.0% 3 days ago 74.5% 80.0% 26.5% 22.0% 2 days ago 72.5% 81.0% 27.5% 20.0% yesterday 72.5% 77.0% 27.5% 24.0% today 72.5% 72.5% 27.5% 27.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
agIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about five points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 83.0%, Kalshi 82.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 16.5%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 83% · Zach Lahn 17%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$43.3K77.5%Kalshi379K contracts · 82%/83%79.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+5.5ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$51.7K23.5%Kalshi370K contracts · 17%/18%21.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-7.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 77.5% 79.0% 23.5% 21.0% 6 days ago 77.5% 79.0% 23.5% 21.0% 5 days ago 77.5% 79.0% 23.5% 23.0% 4 days ago 81.5% 80.0% 18.5% 22.0% 3 days ago 82.5% 80.0% 18.5% 22.0% 2 days ago 83.0% 80.0% 16.5% 21.0% yesterday 83.0% 82.0% 16.5% 19.0% today 83.0% 82.5% 16.5% 17.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aiMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 92.5%, Kalshi 92.8%; John James (R): Polymarket 6.5%, Kalshi 7.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 93% · John James 6.7%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$50.6K92.0%Kalshi76.5K contracts · 93%/93%92.2%venue gap0.2pp7-day move+0.5ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$157K8.5%Kalshi149K contracts · 6.1%/7.9%8.6%venue gap0.1pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 92.0% 92.2% 8.5% 8.6% 6 days ago 91.5% 92.5% 8.5% 8.8% 5 days ago 92.0% 91.6% 8.5% 7.7% 4 days ago 92.0% 92.7% 8.5% 9.6% 3 days ago 92.0% 90.8% 6.5% 8.6% 2 days ago 92.5% 91.0% 6.5% 8.1% yesterday 92.5% 92.8% 6.5% 8.0% today 92.5% 92.8% 6.5% 7.0% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
alNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.8pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 95.0%, Kalshi 93.9%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.5%, Kalshi 6.3%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.8pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 94% · Bruce Blakeman 6.2%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$55.3K94.0%Kalshi395K contracts · 94%/94%92.5%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$71.8K6.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 6.0%/6.6%7.9%venue gap1.4pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 94.0% 92.5% 6.5% 7.9% 6 days ago 94.0% 92.6% 6.5% 8.1% 5 days ago 94.5% 93.1% 6.5% 7.8% 4 days ago 94.5% 92.5% 5.5% 7.4% 3 days ago 95.0% 93.1% 5.0% 7.4% 2 days ago 95.0% 93.2% 5.0% 6.7% yesterday 95.0% 93.5% 4.5% 6.5% today 95.0% 93.9% 4.5% 6.3% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
sOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead after gaining about six points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 61.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 39.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 61% · Vivek Ramaswamy 39%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$100K55.5%Kalshi829K contracts · 61%/62%54.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+5.0ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$119K43.5%Kalshi909K contracts · 39%/40%47.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move-5.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 55.5% 54.0% 43.5% 47.0% 6 days ago 56.5% 56.0% 42.5% 45.0% 5 days ago 56.5% 58.0% 41.5% 43.0% 4 days ago 60.0% 58.0% 40.5% 43.0% 3 days ago 59.5% 58.0% 41.5% 43.0% 2 days ago 60.5% 59.0% 38.5% 43.0% yesterday 60.5% 61.0% 38.5% 41.0% today 60.5% 61.5% 38.5% 39.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
amPennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.7pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.65%, Kalshi 97.35%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.95%, Kalshi 2.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.7pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 97% · Stacy Garrity 2.9%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$7.5K96.95%Kalshi102K contracts · 97%/98%—venue gap—7-day move-0.3ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$42.4K2.6%Kalshi401K contracts · 2.8%/2.9%—venue gap—7-day move+0.3ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 96.95% — 2.60% — 6 days ago 96.55% 97.20% 2.60% 2.90% 5 days ago 96.65% 96.50% 2.60% 3.40% 4 days ago 96.80% 97.50% 2.60% 3.40% 3 days ago 96.80% 96.80% 2.95% 3.50% 2 days ago 96.45% 96.40% 2.95% 2.80% yesterday 96.60% 97.20% 2.95% 2.80% today 96.65% 97.35% 2.95% 2.85% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
akTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead after losing about seven points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.3pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 74.8%, Kalshi 73.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 74% · Gina Hinojosa 26%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$82.9K78.65%Kalshi302K contracts · 73%/74%83.00%venue gap4.3pp7-day move-3.8ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$108K22.5%Kalshi903K contracts · 26%/27%18.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move+3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 78.65% 83.0% 22.5% 18.0% 6 days ago 80.00% 77.0% 21.0% 25.0% 5 days ago 78.05% 78.0% 20.5% 22.0% 4 days ago 78.05% 79.0% 21.5% 21.0% 3 days ago 77.50% 78.0% 22.5% 24.0% 2 days ago 74.65% 77.0% 25.5% 23.0% yesterday 74.80% 72.0% 25.5% 29.0% today 74.80% 73.5% 25.5% 26.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
zWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 84.5%, Kalshi 83.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 15.5%, Kalshi 17.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 84% · Tom Tiffany 17%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$330K83.5%Kalshi476K contracts · 83%/84%80.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+1.0ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$285K15.5%Kalshi741K contracts · 16%/18%19.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 83.5% 80.0% 15.5% 19% 6 days ago 83.5% 82.0% 15.5% 20% 5 days ago 83.5% 81.0% 15.5% 20% 4 days ago 83.5% 85.0% 15.5% 16% 3 days ago 87.0% 84.0% 13.5% 17% 2 days ago 85.0% 82.0% 15.5% 17% yesterday 84.5% 84.0% 15.5% 17% today 84.5% 83.5% 15.5% 17% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.