Senate GOP asks donors for $8.9 million more to defend Alaska, Iowa and Ohio, all states Trump won by double digits

Political Guyentist · September 27, 20261 min read

Markets, not polling

Ashley Hinson 57.5%Josh Turek 42.5%▲1.0

NRSC pollster Erik Iverson told donors Republicans could net one Senate seat, with no state-by-state explanation. One attendee called it "delusional" in a week when Trump's disapproval kept climbing.

On Sep. 22, Bloomberg reported the Senate GOP campaign arm outspent Democrats 46-to-1 on August ads, and the top Senate Republican PAC told donors Iowa is at risk. On Sep. 23, Republicans booked new ad money to defend House seats Trump won by double digits, as a Reuters poll put his approval at a career low.

The numbers behind the moodWSJ: No president in its polls since 1990 has headed into a midterm with approval below Trump's.3 details

WSJ: No president in its polls since 1990 has headed into a midterm with approval below Trump's.
Gas is above $4 a gallon, diesel is $6.50 and mortgage rates are 7%.
Democrats need to flip 4 Republican-held seats to take the Senate.

What we’re less sure of4 of 6 claims

Medium
NRSC pollster Erik Iverson told donors Republicans could net one Senate seat, without a state-by-state explanation, and one attendee called the forecast 'delusional.'
This is a forecast the story explicitly attributes to NRSC pollster Erik Iverson, and the reaction is attributed to an unnamed attendee. It is carried by Axios's Sea Island reporting and the WSJ and CNN coverage of the same event.
Medium
On Sep. 7, the House GOP conference chair backed Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio) for reelection, saying 'I support anybody with an R by their name.'
The quote is attributed to an identifiable officeholder, the House GOP conference chair. However, no source in the SOURCES list covers this quote or the date.
Medium
On Sep. 23, Republicans booked $110 million in ads to defend House seats Trump won by double digits.
This is a specific figure and date, but the story names no source for it and nothing in the SOURCES list corroborates the $110 million reservation.
Medium
Gas is above $4 a gallon, diesel is $6.50 and mortgage rates are 7%; Democrats need to flip 4 Republican-held seats to take the Senate.
No source is named in the story. Gas above $4 is supported by AAA ($4.49 on 9/25), and 'four seats needed' is supported by Axios. However, the diesel sources cite about $6 rather than $6.50, and no source in the list supports the 7% mortgage rate.