The index is down 7% from August (51.7) and 12.7% from a year earlier (55.1), per the University of Michigan. Gas prices, rising mortgage rates and inflation drove the drop, five weeks before the Nov. 3 midterms.
What we’re less sure of2 of 7 claims
Low
The index is down 15% from a year earlier
This contradicts the primary data. UMich reports -12.7% y/y, and FRED shows September 2025 at 55.1, so 48.1 is 12.7% lower. The '15 percent' figure is The Hill's framing, which the story adopts in its own voice without attribution.
Medium
Gas prices, rising mortgage rates and inflation drove the drop in sentiment
The story makes this causal claim without attributing it in its own text. However, it is the shared framing of The Hill, NBC News and the NYT ('High Gas and Rising Mortgage Rates Trouble Trump'), and the component facts are supported. AAA puts gas at $4.49 versus $3.15 a year ago. Freddie Mac puts t