U.S. forces leave their bases in Iraq on Wednesday, Sept. 30, ending two decades of military involvement

Political Guyentist · September 30, 20262 min read

The Washington Post and Reuters both judge that the exit shifts the balance of power in Iraq toward Iran, its proxy militias and the Islamic State.

U.S. troops are set to leave their bases in Iraq on Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026. The departure closes two bloody decades of American military involvement in the country.

Still open. A U.S. official declined to say how many troops remain in Iraq or where they will be redeployed. Baghdad says no foreign combat forces or bases will remain after Sept. 30, and Washington has not confirmed that.

How much of a threat ISIS still poses in IraqISIS activity in Iraq: 88 events in 2025, against about 1,457 in 2021, per ACLED2 details

ISIS activity in Iraq: 88 events in 2025, against about 1,457 in 2021, per ACLED
ISIS prisoners: the U.S. moved 5,704 detainees from Syria into Iraqi prisons, and drones struck near Baghdad's al-Karkh prison in March 2026, per the Pentagon inspector general

What we’re less sure of5 of 8 claims

Medium
U.S. troops are set to leave their bases in Iraq on Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026, ending two decades of American military involvement.
Reported by Reuters (the story's filing wire) and backed by multiple sources (WaPo, DW, AP, Kurdistan24); but it describes a scheduled departure the day before it occurs, so it is a forward-looking commitment rather than a completed fact.
Medium
The Washington Post and Reuters judge that the exit shifts the balance of power in Iraq toward Iran, its proxy militias and the Islamic State.
Explicitly attributed interpretation by The Washington Post and Reuters; the desk reports that these outlets made the judgment, not adopting it as fact.
Medium
Baghdad says no foreign combat forces or bases will remain after Sept. 30, and Washington has not confirmed that; a U.S. official declined to say how many troops remain or where they will be redeployed.
Attributed to Baghdad (Iraqi security spokesman Saad Maan per 964media/Al Jazeera) and an unnamed U.S. official; the Baghdad statement is a commitment by an identifiable party.
Low
After the 2011 exit about 150 troops stayed to guard the embassy after residual-force talks collapsed; ISIS took Mosul in June 2014 and U.S. troops returned that October.
The ~150 embassy troops and talks collapse are backed by The Atlantic/WaPo, NBC and Politico, and the June 2014 fall of Mosul is well-known public data. But the 'returned that October' date conflicts with the story's own SOURCES list: AP (June 19, 2014) reports 300 advisers deployed in June 2014 and
Medium
About 2,500 U.S. troops were in Iraq when the deal was signed, down from a peak of 170,300 in November 2007.
The 170,300 peak is well-documented public data (Wikipedia source). The ~2,500 figure is widely reported but has no specific source in the list. The story attributes neither figure to anyone.