Talarico leads Paxton 51-49 among likely voters in Fox's first Texas Senate poll

What we’re less sure of4 of 5 claims

• Medium

  On Sept. 29, Talarico led Paxton 47-44 in the Texas Senate polling average.

  The story does not say which average it means. CBS News Texas cites RCP at 47.6-44.7 (Sept. 28). The Texas Tribune tracker shows Talarico at about 47.3-47.4. Both are roughly consistent with 47-44 after rounding, but the unnamed average and the Sept. 29 date are not pinned to a specific source.

• Medium

  Paxton's favorability is 40% favorable, 58% unfavorable, underwater by 18 points.

  The arithmetic is consistent. The figures appear to come from the Fox poll, but the story does not explicitly attribute them, and no source description confirms the favorability numbers.

• Medium

  20% of voters who backed John Cornyn in the Republican primary now support Talarico.

  This is presumably a Fox crosstab, but the story does not explicitly attribute it and no source description confirms it. It is also a subgroup estimate with a larger margin of error.

• Medium

  Talarico leads Paxton 64-35 among Hispanic voters.

  The Fox News poll article reports that 64% of Hispanic voters back Talarico, but the 35% Paxton share is not confirmed in any source description. The Sept. topline discloses no Hispanic oversample (July had 296), so this subgroup carries a large sampling error. The bullet itself is not explicitly at