Pentagon sends about 9,000 more sailors and Marines toward Iran on the carrier Theodore Roosevelt and three amphibious ships

News news4 stories

Ongoing3 earlier updates18 days

This story has run 4 times over 18 days, starting Sep 14.

Sep 14Pentagon orders defense industry to wartime footing after US fired thousands of missiles in Iran war
Sep 15UpdatePentagon watchdog says Iran war cost $33.4 billion through June 30, caused munitions shortfall
Sep 29Iranian cruise missile hit a ship carrying 8 US Marines in the Strait of Hormuz on Sept. 14; the Pentagon never announced it
Oct 2UpdatePentagon sends about 9,000 more sailors and Marines toward Iran on the carrier Theodore Roosevelt and three amphibious ships — this issue

Pentagon sends about 9,000 more sailors and Marines toward Iran on the carrier Theodore Roosevelt and three amphibious ships

The Roosevelt is due in the region by the end of November, about three weeks after the Tuesday, Nov. 3 midterm elections, per the Financial Times.

The Pentagon is sending two groups of ships to the Middle East, about 9,000 people in all, while Trump weighs more strikes on Iran.

The Marines. The Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group (three ships built to put Marines ashore) carries more than 4,000 Marines and sailors. About 2,200 of them are in the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit (a Marine force of about 2,200 that lives on those ships and can land on short notice). A Pacific Fleet spokesperson called the San Diego departure "routine operations in the U.S. 3rd Fleet area of operations."

The carrier. The USS Theodore Roosevelt brings the rest of the roughly 9,000 people and is due in the region by the end of November, per the Financial Times.

The pay. Starting Thursday, Oct. 1, troops taking direct fire can draw up to $450 a month in hostile fire pay (extra pay for serving where they can be shot at), per The Washington Post. ([TS]two are there now, and Navy reporting has the Roosevelt relieving one of them, per USNI)

Still open. How long the extra ships stay. The Washington Post and Bloomberg report the U.S. may soon have three carriers in the region.

Catch upwhat happened before · 3 earlier issues

Aug. 31 — Military leaders warned Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that a long Iran war would leave the U.S. exposed elsewhere; the Pentagon called the leak a crime.
Sept. 14–16 — The Pentagon put arms makers on a wartime footing; its watchdog put war costs at $33.4 billion through June 30 and equipment losses at $3.7 billion.
Sept. 29 — Three U.S. officials said an Iranian cruise missile hit a ship carrying eight Marines in the Strait of Hormuz on Sept. 14, never announced.
Sept. 30 — The last U.S. troops left Iraq, ending the 12-year anti-ISIS mission.

Sep 29Iranian cruise missile hit a ship carrying 8 US Marines in the Strait of Hormuz on Sept. 14; the Pentagon never announced it

2 earlier issues

What the Roosevelt strike group brings besides the carrierCruiser USS Chosin, assigned as the group's air and missile defense commander3 details

Cruiser USS Chosin, assigned as the group's air and missile defense commander
Destroyers USS Paul Hamilton, USS Decatur and USS Carl M. Levin
Carrier Air Wing 11: an F-35C squadron, three Super Hornet squadrons and a Growler electronic-attack squadron

Ongoing29 earlier updates71 days

This story has run 30 times over 71 days, starting Jul 23.

AXIOSIran war

Rubio orders Iran's UN delegation out of New York; Trump says Iran will "sign a very fair deal, or they won't exist any longer"

Araghchi's team came for the UN General Assembly; a U.S. official said it had to go once the meeting ended.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio expelled Iran's negotiating team from New York after talks run through Qatar stalled. Trump then threatened Iran's existence while leaving a deal on the table.

The expulsion. On Rubio's orders, the U.S. mission to the UN told Iran's mission on Monday evening, Sept. 28, that Abbas Araghchi (Foreign Minister, Iran) and his delegation had to leave immediately. Araghchi had come to New York for the UN General Assembly. A U.S. official said they "had overstayed their welcome. The UN General Assembly was over, so it was time for them to go." They flew to Doha, Qatar, at 1:20 a.m. Tuesday, Sept. 29.

Trump's threat. "Maybe I will blow 'em up We will blow 'em up or make a deal. But the time is coming," Trump said. He said the U.S. has spent six months rebuilding its weapons stocks, in a war now more than seven months old. ([TS]his own Pentagon just asked Senate appropriators for more money to fix 'critical shortfalls,' per the BBC)

Still open. Qatari mediators are still working both sides on their compromise proposal. Trump has named no deadline.

Catch upwhat happened before · 29 earlier issues

On Sept. 18 the U.S. granted UN General Assembly visas, with travel limits, to Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian and Araghchi, while denying them to the Palestinian delegation for a second year. On Sept. 28 Araghchi said Iran was ready for renewed U.S. strikes and still open to diplomacy.

Sep 30UpdateQatari compromise to end the U.S.-Iran war stalls; Trump denies aides' account that he offered Iran sanctions relief

28 earlier issues

What six months of restocking has not yet replacedThe 39-day air campaign that ended in the April 8 ceasefire fired more than 1,000 of about 3,100 prewar Tomahawk cruise missiles,…3 details

The 39-day air campaign that ended in the April 8 ceasefire fired more than 1,000 of about 3,100 prewar Tomahawk cruise missiles, per CSIS.
Patriot interceptors: 1,060-1,430 fired of roughly 2,200-2,330 prewar; THAAD: 190-290 fired of 360-452, CSIS estimates.
CSIS projects no new THAAD deliveries to U.S. stocks before April 2027, and says Tomahawk, THAAD and Patriot need three or more years to reach prewar levels.

Red take

Iran gets nothing until it reopens the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf shipping lane it closed. Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, was right to send Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister, home once the General Assembly ended. Tehran wants the U.S. naval blockade lifted and its frozen assets released first; pay up front, and every regime learns that seizing a shipping lane is how you get paid.

Blue take

Trump should be backing Qatar's mediators, not calling a bigger bombing round after the Nov. 3 midterms "possible," because the arsenal is not there. CSIS, a Washington think tank, says the 39-day air campaign burned more than 1,000 of about 3,100 Tomahawk cruise missiles. It projects no new THAAD missile-defense interceptors before April 2027. Widen the war now, and U.S. forces meet Iran's answer with their defenses still thinned.

THE WALL STREET JOURNALIran war

Average 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 points to 7.28%, the biggest weekly jump since September 2022

It is the sixth straight weekly rise, and the rate was 5.98% in the week before the Iran war began in late February.

Freddie Mac's weekly survey (the government-chartered mortgage buyer's average of lender rates), released Thursday, Oct. 1, put the 30-year fixed at 7.28%, up from 7.03% a week earlier. It was the sixth straight weekly rise and the highest rate since Nov. 22, 2023, when it hit 7.29%. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.6%.

Mortgage applications fell 6% in the week ended Sept. 25, per the Mortgage Bankers Association. Adjustable-rate loans (a lower starting rate that resets later) rose to 10.3% of applications, the highest share since October 2025.

Still open. National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun says rates "can come down once oil prices retreat and with a credible plan to reduce the budget deficit."

What rates above 7% did to home sales and refinancingExisting-home sales: 4.09 million in 2023 and 4.06 million in 2024, the two lowest years since 1995 (NAR)3 details

Existing-home sales: 4.09 million in 2023 and 4.06 million in 2024, the two lowest years since 1995 (NAR)
Refinance loans for single-family homes fell 64% in 2023 (CFPB)
Refinance volume hit $62 billion in the second quarter of 2024, the lowest quarter since 1996 (Freddie Mac)

Chart

7.0% a week earlier, 7.3% now

The numbers

7.0% a week earlier, 7.3% now
Percent	Stated
a week earlier	7.0%
now	7.3%

Ongoing11 earlier updates37 days

This story has run 12 times over 37 days, starting Aug 26.

Aug 26USPS violated a court order to finalize Trump’s mail-ballot rule; judge allows publication
Aug 27Judge clears Trump’s USPS mail-ballot rule; 24 states and D.C. sue hours later
Aug 29UpdateJudge blocks USPS from rejecting noncompliant mail ballots for 14 days; DOJ appeals
Sep 6UpdateMissouri asks the Supreme Court to reinstate its 7-1 congressional map three days before the ballot deadline
Sep 9Kavanaugh leaves Missouri's 6-2 map in place; hours later a federal judge orders the state to run the 7-1 map
Sep 10UpdateStates ask Supreme Court to keep new USPS ballot requirements blocked
Sep 11Update3-0 First Circuit keeps Trump mail-ballot rule blocked as 7 Republican officials oppose pre-November start
Sep 15UpdateSupreme Court leaves Trump's USPS mail-ballot rules blocked for Nov. 3 midterms in apparent 7-2 vote
Sep 16UpdateMail ballots will move under pre-2026 rules on Nov. 3 as the administration stands down
Sep 27UpdateSupreme Court lets states resume checking voter rolls against Trump's expanded federal citizenship database while the case is appealed
Sep 30Supreme Court votes 6-3 to let Trump deport migrants to third countries without notice or a chance to raise torture fears
Oct 2Supreme Court agrees to decide whether ICE can jail immigrants who entered illegally without a bond hearing — this issue

PBS NEWSHOURImmigration enforcement

Supreme Court agrees to decide whether ICE can jail immigrants who entered illegally without a bond hearing

Nine federal appeals courts and more than 500 district judges have rejected the policy, in force since July 2025; only the 5th and 8th Circuits have upheld it.

The Supreme Court agreed Thursday, Oct. 1 to decide whether people who entered the U.S. illegally, including those who have lived here for decades, can be held without a bond hearing (a chance to ask a judge for release) while their deportation cases run.

The test case. Ricardo Aparecido Barbosa da Cunha is a Brazilian with no criminal record who came to the U.S. around 2005. ICE arrested him in September 2025. His lawyer, Paul Dwyer, says he "has never missed an immigration appointment or hearing."

The government. Solicitor General D. John Sauer says the policy removes a "perverse incentive" that treats people who evade detention at entry more leniently.

What next. No argument date is set. A ruling is due by the end of June 2027.

Biggest ICE detention states, and whether their courts back no-bondTexas: 16,450 detainees in FY2026, under the 5th Circuit, which upheld the policy3 details

Texas: 16,450 detainees in FY2026, under the 5th Circuit, which upheld the policy
Louisiana: 7,680, also 5th Circuit
Georgia: 4,556, under the 11th Circuit, which rejected the policy

Quick bites18

Courts4 bites

Judge rules Trump can't fire court-appointed Seattle U.S. attorney, reinstates Roger Rogoff
NBC NEWS
U.S. District Judge Stanley Bastian refused to pause his ruling reinstating Rogoff, whom Trump fired within an hour of his July 15 swearing-in, and DOJ says it will appeal and seek a stay.

All 17 Western District of Washington judges appointed Rogoff on July 15.

Trump fired Rogoff 54 minutes after his oath, per the Washington Examiner.

Bastian on the statute: "It does not say 'until the president fires the person selected.'"
Federal judge rules the law criminalizing noncitizen voting unconstitutional
REUTERS Courts and the adminis…
U.S. District Judge David Leibowitz of the Southern District of Florida found 18 U.S.C. 611, the law that makes it a crime for noncitizens to vote, unconstitutional, Reuters and NBC News report. Reuters says the ruling applies only to the case of Florida resident Chelsea Cox and does not bind judges in other cases. The first reports do not say whether it will be appealed.
Judge rejects 2 of 3 DOJ grounds for keeping the boat-strike legal memo secret
THE HILL
In a 66-page opinion in the ACLU's records lawsuit, U.S. District Judge Paul Engelmayer rejected the deliberative-process and attorney-client claims over the September 2025 memo authorizing lethal strikes on alleged drug boats.
What the judge orderedDOJ must give more information on its third claim, presidential communications privilege, before any release.3 details

DOJ must give more information on its third claim, presidential communications privilege, before any release.

The judge set a 2-week deadline for his own first look at the memo (ABC News).

DOJ must account for everyone who has seen the memo; Engelmayer said its storage in a Pentagon SCIF "raises more questions than answers."
Pentagon removes never-lived-in-U.S. option from overseas ballot form, drawing DNC suit
THE GUARDIANUpdate
The DNC says the Pentagon broke the law when it changed the Federal Post Card Application. Overseas citizens use that form to register and request absentee ballots. The old form had four location options. One was for citizens who never lived in the U.S.
The Pentagon sent the change to the White House budget office (OMB) on Aug. 26, and OMB approved it on Aug. 28. A Wisconsin clerk memo dated the form update to Sept. 2. Democracy Docket reported the change on Sept. 9. The DNC filed its complaint on Oct. 1.
The form changeOld form: 4 location options, one for citizens who have never lived in the U.S.2 details

Old form: 4 location options, one for citizens who have never lived in the U.S.

The Guardian says 38 states plus D.C. let citizens born abroad vote even if they never lived here

Trump on Iran2 bites

Trump tells TIME he would consider pre-emptive pardons for aides
TIME Iran war
In a 75-minute interview on Sept. 28, Trump was asked about pardons for his officials. "Yeah, sure I'd do that," he said. He also admitted some munitions are "a little bit lower." TIME's fact-check found Iran's inflation is 83.8% per its central bank, not the 300% he claimed.
Other lines from the interviewOn a Democratic House: "They'll probably go after me and I'll go after them" (NBC).3 details

On a Democratic House: "They'll probably go after me and I'll go after them" (NBC).

To staff mid-interview: "You haven't asked me one f---ing positive question" (The Hill).

On bombing Iran again after the midterms: "possible."
Trump says FlyDubai co-pilot who tried to crash a Tel Aviv flight is likely tied to Iran
CBS NEWS Iran war
Trump said the Omani co-pilot is linked to Iran, "based on what I'm hearing." The co-pilot is accused of stabbing his captain on a Dubai–Tel Aviv flight. Trump vowed Iran would be "hit very hard." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the man was radicalized. He called an Iran link "too early to say."

The plane made an emergency landing in Tabuk, Saudi Arabia.

CBS News reports 174 people aboard; PBS NewsHour reports more than 180.

The co-pilot had flown for FlyDubai for 8 months, per Axios.

Public money, Trump's message2 bites

House Democrats ask GAO and special counsel to investigate Trump's taxpayer-funded ads
THE GUARDIANUpdateIran war
Jamie Raskin (Rep-D Maryland) and George Whitesides (Rep-D California) want two watchdogs to probe a new government-paid ad celebrating the Iran war. The 1-minute spot aired on Fox News. They asked the Government Accountability Office and the Office of Special Counsel to investigate.
On Sept. 20, Customs and Border Protection paid the full $20 million to LMD Agency, a Maryland ad firm, for Trump TV ads. A day earlier, the White House budget office had moved that border-security money into a "commemorative events" account. Trump then defended the ads: "I'm not running for office."

Patty Murray (Sen-D Washington) introduced a bill to cut the White House budget office's funding by $20 million for each "propaganda" violation.

A DHS official told NBC that senior Customs and Border Protection leaders were cut out of the decision to buy the ads.

Raskin and Whitesides: "stealing taxpayer dollars to pay for Mr Trump's narcissistic ego trips is plainly illegal."
Treasury mails $500 ACA fee refund checks with a Trump letter to 950,000 HealthCare.gov enrollees
CNN
The administration says these enrollees in the 30 states using the federal exchange were overcharged in marketplace user fees, and most of them earn above 400% of the poverty line and get no subsidies.
Who gets them and what the letter saysTexas has the most recipients at 139,000, followed by Florida at 127,900, per Fox News.2 details

Texas has the most recipients at 139,000, followed by Florida at 127,900, per Fox News.

Trump's letter reads: "That money belongs to hard-working Americans, not the Government, and now I'm returning it to you!"

Congress's unfinished business2 bites

GOP senators ask for rationale behind Hegseth's 20% cut to generals; Democrats call it a purge
PBS NEWSHOURUpdate
Republican defense senators want Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's reasoning before they back his 20% cut to generals. That doubles the 10% cut he ordered in May 2025. "I certainly want to see his rationale in detail, and I don't have that yet," said Ted Budd (Sen-R North Carolina). Democrats call it a purge. Ro Khanna (Rep-D California) urged a vote on Thomas Massie's (Rep-R Kentucky) resolution to remove Hegseth.
Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues

Sep. 3 — The Pentagon pulled decades of Defense Secretary orders off its classified SIPR network.

Sep. 30 — Hegseth announced a 20% cut in general and admiral posts by Jan. 1, 2027, up from the 10% cut he ordered in May 2025.

Oct. 1 — He confirmed the cut removes positions, not people, ordered a four-star drone command and called munitions reporting "treason."

Oct 1UpdateHegseth confirms a 20% cut in general and admiral posts, orders a four-star drone command and calls munitions reporting “treason”
1 earlier issue
Sep 30Hegseth will order the military to cut general and admiral positions 20% by Jan. 1, 2027
What Democrats are reacting toHegseth at Quantico: "no fatties, no trannies, no beardos, no weirdos, no wimps, no radicals, just warriors."2 details

Hegseth at Quantico: "no fatties, no trannies, no beardos, no weirdos, no wimps, no radicals, just warriors."

Khanna called it an "illegal, immoral Holy war" after Hegseth announced a new Office of Religious Affairs.

Ongoing2
This story has run 3 times over 2 days, starting Sep 30.
Sep 30Hegseth will order the military to cut general and admiral positions 20% by Jan. 1, 2027
Oct 1UpdateHegseth confirms a 20% cut in general and admiral posts, orders a four-star drone command and calls munitions reporting “treason”
Oct 2UpdateGOP senators ask for rationale behind Hegseth's 20% cut to generals; Democrats call it a purge — this issue
Congress left until after Nov. 3 midterms with funding, NDAA and FISA 702 unresolved
WASHINGTON EXAMINER 2026 midterms
When they return, members face government funding that runs out Dec. 11, the defense bill, FISA Section 702 surveillance and a possible third reconciliation bill that Senate Majority Leader John Thune says may lack 50 votes.
The lame-duck deadlinesNov. 20: the administration says FISA 702 surveillance could go fully dark (Washington Examiner).3 details

Nov. 20: the administration says FISA 702 surveillance could go fully dark (Washington Examiner).

Dec. 11: current government funding expires; last year's shutdown lasted 43 days by Fox's calendar-day count (CRS counts 42 full days).

$95 billion: the House-passed blueprint for a third reconciliation bill covering military, Iran war and farm relief costs.

Immigration enforcement2 bites

Renee Good's family sues the U.S. over her killing by an ICE officer and accuses the officer, Miller, Noem and Homan of a civil-rights conspiracy
PBS NEWSHOUR Immigration enforcement
Her partner and brother filed two suits in Minnesota federal court on Thursday, Oct. 1, one against the United States and one accusing 17 officials and agents of a civil-rights conspiracy.

ICE officer Jonathan Ross shot Good, a 37-year-old U.S. citizen, on Jan. 7 during Operation Metro Surge; the complaint says each of his three shots broke DHS's own use-of-force policy.

The conspiracy suit names Ross, Stephen Miller, Kristi Noem and Tom Homan among its defendants and rests on the Ku Klux Klan Act of 1871; neither suit names a dollar figure.

The White House said it will "vigorously defend" the claims; Homan said, "I wish Renee Good was alive today."
ICE bans car chases and lets only specially trained officers make traffic stops
WASHINGTON EXAMINER Immigration enforcement
A memo issued Wednesday (Sept. 30) bars ICE officers from chasing vehicles that don't stop. It also bars PIT maneuvers, where an officer bumps a fleeing car to spin it out.
The new limitsOnly government vehicles with lights and sirens may make stops (ABC News).3 details

Only government vehicles with lights and sirens may make stops (ABC News).

The limits apply to ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations officers (ABC News).

Only officers with specific agency training may make traffic stops.

Also tonight3 bites

Christa Pike survives two pentobarbital doses; Tennessee cancels its last 2026 execution
PBS NEWSHOURUpdate
Bill Lee (Gov-R Tennessee) canceled the state's one remaining 2026 execution and ordered a third-party review. Pike is in the hospital in critical condition after at least seven needles and two doses.
Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue
Sep. 30 — A Sixth Circuit panel voted 2-1 to halt Pike's execution about an hour before it was set to begin. That evening, the Supreme Court lifted the stay. Its three liberal justices dissented.

Second failed Tennessee execution this year, after Tony Carruthers' in May.

Pike's lawyers are demanding commutation and say they warned her vein problems made this predictable.

Marsha Blackburn (Sen-R Tennessee), the GOP nominee for governor: "bring back the electric chair and deliver justice for these victims swiftly."

Oct 1UpdateSupreme Court lifts appeals court's last-minute stay of Christa Pike's Tennessee execution, three liberals dissenting
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times, starting Oct 1.
Oct 1UpdateSupreme Court lifts appeals court's last-minute stay of Christa Pike's Tennessee execution, three liberals dissenting
Oct 2UpdateChrista Pike survives two pentobarbital doses; Tennessee cancels its last 2026 execution — this issue
U.S. presses Germany and France to release emergency diesel stockpiles, threatening a U.S. export ban
BLOOMBERGUpdate
The administration is now pressing Germany and France to release emergency diesel stockpiles, holding a U.S. export ban over them. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Europe would announce new diesel supplies, while Trade Representative Jamieson Greer was more guarded.
Trump said a diesel export ban was still on the table but showed less appetite for it.
BackgroundWhy Europe would feel a ban2 facts

Europe's own refineries make only about 70% of the diesel it uses.

About one-third of the UK's diesel imports came from the U.S. last year.
Chart withheldThe chart filed with this story was withheld: the drawing did not agree with its own numbers.
- 1 pairs of labelled points are drawn in the wrong order for their values — the marks were not placed against a scale.
UK police arrest a sixth suspect, a 27-year-old UK-Iranian national, over Sept. 27's RAF Fairford incident
THE HILL Iran war
The first five suspects are out on bail. They are British men in their 20s, arrested near the base on Sunday, Sept. 27. "I wouldn't have done," Trump said of the bail decision. Police found gasoline but no explosives in three linked vans.
BackgroundWho says Iran is behind it3 facts

Prime Minister Andy Burnham cites "strong indications" of Iranian involvement; Iran denies it.

DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin said the U.S. "knew" Iran or its proxies would try to hit a U.S. asset in the UK.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio joined Trump in criticizing the bail for the first five suspects.

Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times over 2 days, starting Sep 30.
Sep 30UpdateUK police found petrol, not explosives, in three vans tied to five bailed Fairford suspects
Oct 2UK police arrest a sixth suspect, a 27-year-old UK-Iranian national, over Sept. 27's RAF Fairford incident — this issue

Elections3 bites

AP-NORC poll: 26% approve of Trump on the economy, a new low; 17% on cost of living
PBS NEWSHOUR 2026 midterms
65% of adults blame Trump's policies more than outside factors for high costs, and CNN finds about 8 in 10 Americans disapprove of his handling of inflation.
Also in the pollGas worry: about half are highly concerned about affording gas, up from 39% in July2 details

Gas worry: about half are highly concerned about affording gas, up from 39% in July

Robert Gault, 66, a Republican retired factory worker: "He said, 'Make America Great Again.' And I have not seen him do that."
Trump starts a 32-day midterm campaign tour in Texas and Oklahoma, with stops planned in at least 17 states
CBS NEWS 2026 midterms
Trump said he is campaigning in GOP strongholds "just to make sure" and because "nobody's selling it," while the White House weighs adding an upstate New York stop before the Nov. 3 election.

Opening stops: Trump in Texas and Oklahoma

Planned reach: at least 17 states, per NBC News

Election day: Nov. 3
Talarico leads Paxton 51-49 among likely voters in Fox's first Texas Senate poll
FOX NEWSUpdate2026 midterms
Democrat James Talarico (D-TX) leads Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton 51-49 among likely voters, within the margin of error. Among registered voters he leads by 7 points. The registered-voter sample is 1,203, with a margin of error of ±2.5 points.
On Sept. 29, Talarico led Paxton 47-44 in the Texas Senate polling average.
Inside the numbersPaxton's favorability is 40% favorable, 58% unfavorable, underwater by 18 points.3 details

Paxton's favorability is 40% favorable, 58% unfavorable, underwater by 18 points.

20% of voters who backed John Cornyn (Sen-R Texas) in the primary now support Talarico.

Talarico leads Paxton 64-35 among Hispanic voters.

Elections22 races

The midterms · 32 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 93%, Kalshi 92%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 63%, Kalshi 63%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 91.55–92.50%

93%92%chance Democrats take it · 1.0pp apart · neither venue moved this week

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 93% and Kalshi 92%.

U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 62.5%

63%63%chance Democrats take it · the same price on both · no clear move — one venue moved, the other did not

U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 63% and Kalshi 63%.

No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only

Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.

two venues, priced separately
shaded = how far apart they are
50% — control flips here
where it stood 7 days ago
the last 7 days, on its own scale
week panel: one line a party

The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.

Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.

The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 1.0pp gap / 0.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.

Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”

Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

PolymarketU.S. House · todayWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Democratic control93%

Republican, implied7%

volume$7.3M

7-day move0.0pp

KalshiU.S. House · todayWill Democrats win the House in 2026?

Democratic control92%

Republican, implied8%

volume15M contracts

bid / ask92% / 92%

7-day move+0.2pp

PolymarketU.S. Senate · todayWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Democratic control63%

Republican, implied37%

volume$3.2M

7-day move0.0pp

KalshiU.S. Senate · todayWill Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?

Democratic control63%

Republican, implied37%

volume5.5M contracts

bid / ask62% / 63%

7-day move+1.5pp

Probability that Democrats control each chamber, as each venue prices it, by day.
Day	U.S. House · Polymarket	U.S. House · Kalshi	U.S. Senate · Polymarket	U.S. Senate · Kalshi
7 days ago	93%	91%	63%	61%
6 days ago	93%	92%	63%	62%
5 days ago	93%	92%	63%	62%
4 days ago	93%	92%	63%	62%
3 days ago	93%	91%	63%	62%
2 days ago	93%	92%	63%	62%
yesterday	93%	92%	63%	63%
today	93%	92%	63%	63%

3 closest races

abNevada governorJoe Lombardo 51.5%▲0.2Aaron Ford 47.5%

POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).

Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Nevada governor

Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 52.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 48.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 52% · Aaron Ford 47%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$120K50.5%

Kalshi323K contracts · 52%/53%53.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Aaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$61.2K49%

Kalshi571K contracts · 46%/47%47%

venue gap2.0pp

7-day move-0.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT.
Day	Joe Lombardo · Polymarket	Joe Lombardo · Kalshi	Aaron Ford · Polymarket	Aaron Ford · Kalshi
7 days ago	50.5%	53.0%	49.0%	47.0%
6 days ago	50.5%	53.0%	49.5%	47.0%
5 days ago	51.5%	54.0%	47.5%	46.0%
4 days ago	52.5%	53.0%	47.5%	47.0%
3 days ago	51.5%	54.0%	48.5%	46.0%
2 days ago	50.5%	52.0%	48.5%	47.0%
yesterday	50.5%	54.0%	48.5%	47.0%
today	50.5%	52.5%	48.5%	46.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

aaGeorgia governorRick Jackson 52.0%▲5.5Keisha Lance Bottoms 47.5%

POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

Rick Jackson (R) faces Keisha Lance Bottoms (D).

Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead after the Democratic side lost about six points in a week.

Two markets, one question

Georgia governor

Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Georgia governor. Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 52.5%, Kalshi 51.5%; Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 46.5%, Kalshi 48.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Rick Jackson 52% · Keisha Lance Bottoms 48%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Rick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$63.6K45.5%

Kalshi549K contracts · 51%/52%48.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move+7.0pp

Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$75.0K54.5%

Kalshi603K contracts · 48%/49%53.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-8.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT.
Day	Rick Jackson · Polymarket	Rick Jackson · Kalshi	Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket	Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi
7 days ago	45.5%	48.0%	54.5%	53.0%
6 days ago	45.5%	49.0%	51.5%	53.0%
5 days ago	47.5%	50.0%	52.5%	51.0%
4 days ago	47.5%	50.0%	52.5%	51.0%
3 days ago	48.5%	52.0%	52.5%	51.0%
2 days ago	52.0%	52.0%	48.5%	49.0%
yesterday	52.5%	52.0%	46.5%	50.0%
today	52.5%	51.5%	46.5%	48.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

wIowa SenateAshley Hinson 58.0%▲0.5Josh Turek 42.0%

POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Iowa Senate

Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 58% · Josh Turek 42%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$314K58.5%

Kalshi1.5M contracts · 57%/58%57.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Josh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$361K41.5%

Kalshi2.0M contracts · 42%/43%44.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT.
Day	Ashley Hinson · Polymarket	Ashley Hinson · Kalshi	Josh Turek · Polymarket	Josh Turek · Kalshi
7 days ago	58.5%	57.0%	41.5%	44.0%
6 days ago	58.5%	57.0%	41.5%	45.0%
5 days ago	57.5%	57.0%	41.5%	44.0%
4 days ago	58.5%	58.0%	41.5%	43.0%
3 days ago	58.5%	59.0%	41.5%	41.0%
2 days ago	58.5%	60.0%	41.5%	42.0%
yesterday	58.5%	60.0%	41.5%	42.0%
today	58.5%	57.5%	41.5%	42.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 12 still in doubt · Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate9 of 10

vAlaska SenateMary Peltola 71.0%▲1.4Sullivan 29.3%

POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Alaska Senate

Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 69.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 30.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 72% · Dan Sullivan 29%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Mary Peltola (D)7 days ago

Polymarket$673K72.5%

Kalshi173K contracts · 69%/70%74.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Dan Sullivan (R)7 days ago

Polymarket$318K28.5%

Kalshi147K contracts · 29%/31%28.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT.
Day	Mary Peltola · Polymarket	Mary Peltola · Kalshi	Dan Sullivan · Polymarket	Dan Sullivan · Kalshi
7 days ago	72.5%	74.0%	28.5%	28%
6 days ago	72.5%	74.0%	28.5%	27%
5 days ago	72.5%	73.0%	29.5%	28%
4 days ago	72.5%	73.0%	28.5%	27%
3 days ago	72.5%	73.0%	28.5%	27%
2 days ago	72.5%	73.0%	28.5%	28%
yesterday	72.5%	72.0%	28.5%	31%
today	72.5%	69.5%	28.5%	30%

adGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 96.65%▲1.8Collins 3.53%

POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Georgia Senate

Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.2pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 97.25%, Kalshi 96.05%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 2.90%, Kalshi 4.15%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 96% · Mike Collins 4.0%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$88.8K95.5%

Kalshi445K contracts · 95%/97%94.4%

venue gap1.1pp

7-day move+1.8pp

Mike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$116K4.1%

Kalshi1.0M contracts · 3.7%/4.6%6.5%

venue gap2.4pp

7-day move-1.2pp

Every sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT.
Day	Jon Ossoff · Polymarket	Jon Ossoff · Kalshi	Mike Collins · Polymarket	Mike Collins · Kalshi
7 days ago	95.50%	94.40%	4.10%	6.50%
6 days ago	95.50%	94.90%	3.95%	6.20%
5 days ago	95.50%	94.50%	4.05%	5.90%
4 days ago	95.50%	94.10%	4.00%	5.70%
3 days ago	95.50%	94.80%	3.95%	4.20%
2 days ago	97.30%	95.80%	2.85%	4.60%
yesterday	97.25%	95.00%	2.90%	5.50%
today	97.25%	96.05%	2.90%	4.15%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

tMaine SenateTroy Jackson 58.0%▲6.8Susan Collins 41.5%

POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead, but no race here has moved more this week: the Republican side is up about seven points.

Two markets, one question

Maine Senate

Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 58.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 58% · Susan Collins 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$1.2M64.5%

Kalshi3.4M contracts · 58%/59%65.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move-7.0pp

Susan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$886K34.5%

Kalshi3.7M contracts · 41%/42%35.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move+7.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT.
Day	Troy Jackson · Polymarket	Troy Jackson · Kalshi	Susan Collins · Polymarket	Susan Collins · Kalshi
7 days ago	64.5%	65.0%	34.5%	35.0%
6 days ago	60.5%	63.0%	40.5%	37.0%
5 days ago	60.5%	61.0%	38.5%	40.0%
4 days ago	59.5%	60.0%	40.5%	41.0%
3 days ago	58.5%	60.0%	40.5%	41.0%
2 days ago	56.5%	60.0%	42.5%	40.0%
yesterday	57.0%	59.0%	41.5%	42.0%
today	57.5%	58.5%	41.5%	41.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

xMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 72.0%Mike Rogers 28.5%

POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Michigan Senate

Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 71.5%, Kalshi 72.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 28%, Kalshi 29%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 72% · Mike Rogers 29%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$702K70.5%

Kalshi2.0M contracts · 72%/73%74.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Mike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$537K29.5%

Kalshi2.8M contracts · 28%/30%28.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-1.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT.
Day	Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket	Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi	Mike Rogers · Polymarket	Mike Rogers · Kalshi
7 days ago	70.5%	74.0%	29.5%	28%
6 days ago	70.5%	73.0%	29.5%	28%
5 days ago	70.5%	72.0%	30.5%	29%
4 days ago	72.5%	72.0%	28.5%	29%
3 days ago	72.5%	72.0%	27.5%	29%
2 days ago	71.5%	74.0%	28.5%	27%
yesterday	71.5%	73.0%	28.0%	29%
today	71.5%	72.5%	28.0%	29%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

aeNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 73.0%▲2.5Dan Osborn 26.5%

POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

The Republican side holds a commanding lead after Osborn lost about three points in a week.

Two markets, one question

Nebraska Senate

Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 72.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 73% · Dan Osborn 27%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$253K69.5%

Kalshi1.2M contracts · 72%/73%73.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move+4.0pp

Dan Osborn (I)7 days ago

Polymarket$121K30.5%

Kalshi803K contracts · 27%/28%29.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-5.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT.
Day	Pete Ricketts · Polymarket	Pete Ricketts · Kalshi	Dan Osborn · Polymarket	Dan Osborn · Kalshi
7 days ago	69.5%	73.0%	30.5%	29.0%
6 days ago	69.5%	71.0%	30.5%	31.0%
5 days ago	69.5%	70.0%	30.5%	30.0%
4 days ago	69.5%	70.0%	30.5%	29.0%
3 days ago	70.5%	71.0%	30.5%	28.0%
2 days ago	73.5%	73.0%	25.5%	27.0%
yesterday	73.5%	72.0%	25.5%	29.0%
today	73.5%	72.5%	25.5%	27.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

afNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 86.5%▲0.913.3%Sununu

POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

New Hampshire Senate

Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 86.5%, Kalshi 86.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 13.5%, Kalshi 13.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 87% · John E. Sununu 13%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Chris Pappas (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$146K86.5%

Kalshi448K contracts · 86%/87%86.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

John E. Sununu (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$150K14%

Kalshi1.2M contracts · 12%/14%15%

venue gap1.0pp

7-day move-0.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT.
Day	Chris Pappas · Polymarket	Chris Pappas · Kalshi	John E. Sununu · Polymarket	John E. Sununu · Kalshi
7 days ago	86.5%	86.0%	14.0%	15%
6 days ago	85.0%	85.0%	13.5%	14%
5 days ago	86.5%	86.0%	14.5%	15%
4 days ago	86.5%	85.0%	12.5%	15%
3 days ago	85.5%	86.0%	13.5%	15%
2 days ago	86.5%	87.0%	13.5%	14%
yesterday	86.5%	87.0%	13.5%	15%
today	86.5%	86.5%	13.5%	13%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

acNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 94.83%▲0.9Whatley 5.28%

POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

North Carolina Senate

Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.6pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 95.50%, Kalshi 94.15%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 4.50%, Kalshi 6.05%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 94% · Michael Whatley 5.9%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$105K95.5%

Kalshi1.4M contracts · 94%/94%93.3%

venue gap2.2pp

7-day move0.0pp

Michael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$109K5.5%

Kalshi1000K contracts · 5.8%/6.3%6.9%

venue gap1.4pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT.
Day	Roy Cooper · Polymarket	Roy Cooper · Kalshi	Michael Whatley · Polymarket	Michael Whatley · Kalshi
7 days ago	95.5%	93.30%	5.5%	6.90%
6 days ago	95.5%	93.60%	5.5%	6.20%
5 days ago	95.5%	93.60%	5.5%	6.50%
4 days ago	95.5%	93.60%	5.5%	6.70%
3 days ago	95.5%	94.30%	4.5%	5.80%
2 days ago	95.5%	94.60%	4.5%	6.00%
yesterday	95.5%	94.10%	4.5%	6.50%
today	95.5%	94.15%	4.5%	6.05%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

yOhio SenateSherrod Brown 59.5%▲1.2Jon Husted 40.5%

POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Ohio Senate

Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 60.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 39.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 60% · Jon Husted 40%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$570K57.5%

Kalshi2.7M contracts · 60%/61%59.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Jon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$421K41.5%

Kalshi2.6M contracts · 39%/40%40.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT.
Day	Sherrod Brown · Polymarket	Sherrod Brown · Kalshi	Jon Husted · Polymarket	Jon Husted · Kalshi
7 days ago	57.5%	59.0%	41.5%	40.0%
6 days ago	57.5%	59.0%	41.5%	42.0%
5 days ago	57.5%	59.0%	42.5%	42.0%
4 days ago	62.0%	58.0%	37.5%	42.0%
3 days ago	59.5%	59.0%	39.5%	43.0%
2 days ago	58.5%	61.0%	41.5%	41.0%
yesterday	58.5%	59.0%	41.5%	41.0%
today	58.5%	60.5%	41.5%	39.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

uTexas SenateJames Talarico 62.5%▲3.3Ken Paxton 37.5%

POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about four points in a week.

Two markets, one question

Texas Senate

Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 63.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: James Talarico 63% · Ken Paxton 37%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

James Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$818K60.5%

Kalshi6.8M contracts · 63%/64%59.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Ken Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$890K39.5%

Kalshi9.6M contracts · 36%/37%43.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT.
Day	James Talarico · Polymarket	James Talarico · Kalshi	Ken Paxton · Polymarket	Ken Paxton · Kalshi
7 days ago	60.5%	59.0%	39.5%	43.0%
6 days ago	60.5%	62.0%	39.5%	40.0%
5 days ago	60.5%	60.0%	39.5%	40.0%
4 days ago	61.5%	60.0%	39.5%	41.0%
3 days ago	64.5%	60.0%	35.5%	41.0%
2 days ago	61.5%	59.0%	38.5%	41.0%
yesterday	61.5%	61.0%	38.5%	39.0%
today	61.5%	63.5%	38.5%	36.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors10 of 12

ahAlaska governor17.50%81.6%WilsonBegich 0.93%

POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

Wilson holds a clear lead.

Two markets, one question

Alaska governor

Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 18%, Kalshi 17%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.05%, Kalshi 0.80%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.

Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 18% · Tom Begich 0.9%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days ago

Polymarket$185K19.5%

Kalshi58.2K contracts · 15%/19%—

venue gap—

7-day move-1.5pp

Tom Begich (D)7 days ago

Polymarket$166K1.3%

Kalshi246K contracts · 0.6%/1.0%0.4%

venue gap0.9pp

7-day move-0.2pp

Every sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT.
Day	Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket	Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi	Tom Begich · Polymarket	Tom Begich · Kalshi
7 days ago	19.5%	—	1.30%	0.4%
6 days ago	19.5%	—	1.30%	0.3%
5 days ago	19.5%	17%	1.25%	0.6%
4 days ago	19.5%	18%	1.25%	0.3%
3 days ago	19.5%	17%	1.05%	1.0%
2 days ago	18.0%	19%	1.05%	0.9%
yesterday	18.0%	14%	1.05%	0.6%
today	18.0%	17%	1.05%	0.8%

ajArizona governorKatie Hobbs 88.5%11.0%Biggs

POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Arizona governor

Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 88.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 11.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 89% · Andy Biggs 11%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$42.5K88.5%

Kalshi345K contracts · 88%/89%90.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Andy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$46.7K10.5%

Kalshi277K contracts · 11%/12%13.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT.
Day	Katie Hobbs · Polymarket	Katie Hobbs · Kalshi	Andy Biggs · Polymarket	Andy Biggs · Kalshi
7 days ago	88.5%	90.0%	10.5%	13.0%
6 days ago	88.5%	89.0%	10.5%	13.0%
5 days ago	88.5%	89.0%	10.5%	13.0%
4 days ago	88.5%	89.0%	10.5%	13.0%
3 days ago	88.5%	89.0%	10.5%	13.0%
2 days ago	88.5%	88.0%	10.5%	13.0%
yesterday	88.5%	88.0%	10.5%	12.0%
today	88.5%	88.5%	10.5%	11.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

anFlorida governorByron Donalds 78.0%▲0.722.5%Jolly

POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Florida governor

Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 78.5%, Kalshi 77.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 21.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 78% · David Jolly 23%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$114K78%

Kalshi1.6M contracts · 77%/78%79%

venue gap1.0pp

7-day move+0.5pp

David Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$125K21.5%

Kalshi721K contracts · 23%/24%22.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT.
Day	Byron Donalds · Polymarket	Byron Donalds · Kalshi	David Jolly · Polymarket	David Jolly · Kalshi
7 days ago	78.0%	79.0%	21.5%	22.0%
6 days ago	79.5%	79.0%	21.5%	23.0%
5 days ago	78.5%	78.0%	21.5%	23.0%
4 days ago	79.0%	79.0%	21.5%	22.0%
3 days ago	78.5%	78.0%	21.5%	24.0%
2 days ago	78.5%	78.0%	21.5%	23.0%
yesterday	78.5%	78.0%	21.5%	24.0%
today	78.5%	77.5%	21.5%	23.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

agIowa governorRob Sand 84.5%▲1.2Lahn 15.0%

POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Iowa governor

Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 84.5%, Kalshi 84.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 14.5%, Kalshi 15.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Rob Sand 85% · Zach Lahn 15%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$56.1K83.5%

Kalshi411K contracts · 84%/85%83.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Zach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$55.0K15.5%

Kalshi407K contracts · 15%/16%18.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT.
Day	Rob Sand · Polymarket	Rob Sand · Kalshi	Zach Lahn · Polymarket	Zach Lahn · Kalshi
7 days ago	83.5%	83.0%	15.5%	18.0%
6 days ago	88.0%	83.0%	11.0%	16.0%
5 days ago	87.5%	84.0%	13.5%	18.0%
4 days ago	82.5%	85.0%	15.5%	16.0%
3 days ago	83.5%	84.0%	14.5%	17.0%
2 days ago	84.5%	85.0%	14.5%	17.0%
yesterday	84.5%	85.0%	14.5%	17.0%
today	84.5%	84.5%	14.5%	15.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

aiMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 91.83%James 8.20%

POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Michigan governor

Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.6pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 91.50%, Kalshi 92.15%; John James (R): Polymarket 8.5%, Kalshi 7.9%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 92% · John James 8.2%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$51.2K92.5%

Kalshi80.0K contracts · 92%/93%92.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

John James (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$159K6.5%

Kalshi161K contracts · 7.2%/8.6%8.9%

venue gap2.4pp

7-day move+2.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT.
Day	Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket	Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi	John James · Polymarket	John James · Kalshi
7 days ago	92.5%	92.00%	6.5%	8.9%
6 days ago	92.5%	92.10%	6.5%	7.7%
5 days ago	92.5%	92.90%	6.5%	7.9%
4 days ago	92.5%	91.90%	6.5%	8.0%
3 days ago	91.5%	91.70%	8.5%	8.7%
2 days ago	91.5%	91.80%	8.5%	8.7%
yesterday	91.5%	92.80%	8.5%	9.9%
today	91.5%	92.15%	8.5%	7.9%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

alNew York governorKathy Hochul 95.1%▲0.2Blakeman 4.9%

POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

New York governor

Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.8pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 95.5%, Kalshi 94.7%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.5%, Kalshi 5.3%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.8pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 95% · Bruce Blakeman 5.3%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$55.4K95.5%

Kalshi416K contracts · 94%/95%94.5%

venue gap1.0pp

7-day move0.0pp

Bruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$72.0K4.5%

Kalshi1.3M contracts · 4.9%/5.7%5.7%

venue gap1.2pp

7-day move0.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT.
Day	Kathy Hochul · Polymarket	Kathy Hochul · Kalshi	Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket	Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi
7 days ago	95.5%	94.5%	4.5%	5.7%
6 days ago	95.5%	94.6%	4.5%	6.1%
5 days ago	95.5%	94.0%	4.5%	6.1%
4 days ago	95.5%	94.7%	4.5%	6.1%
3 days ago	95.5%	94.8%	4.5%	5.9%
2 days ago	95.5%	94.5%	4.5%	5.6%
yesterday	95.5%	94.4%	4.5%	4.9%
today	95.5%	94.7%	4.5%	5.3%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

sOhio governorAmy Acton 61.0%▲0.8Vivek Ramaswamy 37.5%

POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Ohio governor

Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 60.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 38.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Amy Acton 61% · Vivek Ramaswamy 38%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$125K63.5%

Kalshi863K contracts · 60%/61%60.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move-2.0pp

Vivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$144K36.5%

Kalshi1.0M contracts · 38%/39%40.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT.
Day	Amy Acton · Polymarket	Amy Acton · Kalshi	Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket	Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi
7 days ago	63.5%	60.0%	36.5%	40.0%
6 days ago	62.5%	61.0%	36.5%	39.0%
5 days ago	61.5%	62.0%	40.0%	39.0%
4 days ago	60.5%	60.0%	40.0%	40.0%
3 days ago	60.5%	61.0%	39.5%	41.0%
2 days ago	61.5%	61.0%	36.5%	40.0%
yesterday	61.5%	59.0%	36.5%	41.0%
today	61.5%	60.5%	36.5%	38.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

amPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 97.15%Garrity 2.90%

POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Pennsylvania governor

Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.6pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.95%, Kalshi 97.35%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.6%, Kalshi 3.2%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.

Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 97% · Stacy Garrity 3.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$7.5K97.2%

Kalshi105K contracts · 97%/97%—

venue gap—

7-day move-0.2pp

Stacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$42.5K2.65%

Kalshi410K contracts · 2.7%/3.7%2.90%

venue gap0.3pp

7-day move-0.1pp

Every sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT.
Day	Josh Shapiro · Polymarket	Josh Shapiro · Kalshi	Stacy Garrity · Polymarket	Stacy Garrity · Kalshi
7 days ago	97.20%	—	2.65%	2.9%
6 days ago	97.05%	97.50%	2.65%	2.8%
5 days ago	96.90%	97.70%	2.65%	2.6%
4 days ago	96.90%	97.40%	2.65%	2.8%
3 days ago	96.95%	97.70%	2.65%	2.7%
2 days ago	97.05%	97.70%	2.60%	4.9%
yesterday	96.95%	97.30%	2.60%	2.7%
today	96.95%	97.35%	2.60%	3.2%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

akTexas governorGreg Abbott 81.58%▲4.518.50%Hinojosa

POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

The Republican side holds a commanding lead after the Democratic side lost about five points in a week.

Two markets, one question

Texas governor

Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.1pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 82.65%, Kalshi 80.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 17.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.1pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 81% · Gina Hinojosa 19%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$189K79.45%

Kalshi372K contracts · 80%/81%76.00%

venue gap3.4pp

7-day move+3.2pp

Gina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$162K21.5%

Kalshi1.0M contracts · 19%/20%25.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move-4.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT.
Day	Greg Abbott · Polymarket	Greg Abbott · Kalshi	Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket	Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi
7 days ago	79.45%	76.0%	21.5%	25.0%
6 days ago	83.50%	79.0%	17.0%	22.0%
5 days ago	84.15%	79.0%	15.5%	23.0%
4 days ago	81.05%	80.0%	19.5%	22.0%
3 days ago	78.85%	80.0%	20.5%	20.0%
2 days ago	82.65%	79.0%	17.5%	23.0%
yesterday	82.65%	78.0%	17.5%	24.0%
today	82.65%	80.5%	17.5%	19.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

zWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 80.8%18.5%Tiffany

POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Wisconsin governor

Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 82.5%, Kalshi 79.0%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 17.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: David Crowley 80% · Tom Tiffany 19%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$356K85.5%

Kalshi489K contracts · 78%/80%84.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-3.0pp

Tom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$341K14.5%

Kalshi783K contracts · 19%/20%17.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move+3.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT.
Day	David Crowley · Polymarket	David Crowley · Kalshi	Tom Tiffany · Polymarket	Tom Tiffany · Kalshi
7 days ago	85.5%	84%	14.5%	17.0%
6 days ago	85.5%	83%	14.5%	18.0%
5 days ago	85.5%	84%	14.5%	17.0%
4 days ago	85.5%	84%	14.5%	17.0%
3 days ago	80.5%	82%	19.5%	17.0%
2 days ago	82.5%	84%	17.5%	17.0%
yesterday	82.5%	82%	17.5%	19.0%
today	82.5%	79%	17.5%	19.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Oct 22026

Executive summary4 stories

News news4

News news4 stories

The Roosevelt is due in the region by the end of November, about three weeks after the Tuesday, Nov. 3 midterm elections, per the Financial Times.

Araghchi's team came for the UN General Assembly; a U.S. official said it had to go once the meeting ended.

It is the sixth straight weekly rise, and the rate was 5.98% in the week before the Iran war began in late February.

7.0% a week earlier, 7.3% now

Nine federal appeals courts and more than 500 district judges have rejected the policy, in force since July 2025; only the 5th and 8th Circuits have upheld it.

Quick bites18

Judge rules Trump can't fire court-appointed Seattle U.S. attorney, reinstates Roger Rogoff

Federal judge rules the law criminalizing noncitizen voting unconstitutional

Judge rejects 2 of 3 DOJ grounds for keeping the boat-strike legal memo secret

Pentagon removes never-lived-in-U.S. option from overseas ballot form, drawing DNC suit

Trump tells TIME he would consider pre-emptive pardons for aides

Trump says FlyDubai co-pilot who tried to crash a Tel Aviv flight is likely tied to Iran

House Democrats ask GAO and special counsel to investigate Trump's taxpayer-funded ads

Treasury mails $500 ACA fee refund checks with a Trump letter to 950,000 HealthCare.gov enrollees

GOP senators ask for rationale behind Hegseth's 20% cut to generals; Democrats call it a purge

Congress left until after Nov. 3 midterms with funding, NDAA and FISA 702 unresolved

Renee Good's family sues the U.S. over her killing by an ICE officer and accuses the officer, Miller, Noem and Homan of a civil-rights conspiracy

ICE bans car chases and lets only specially trained officers make traffic stops

Christa Pike survives two pentobarbital doses; Tennessee cancels its last 2026 execution

U.S. presses Germany and France to release emergency diesel stockpiles, threatening a U.S. export ban

UK police arrest a sixth suspect, a 27-year-old UK-Iranian national, over Sept. 27's RAF Fairford incident

AP-NORC poll: 26% approve of Trump on the economy, a new low; 17% on cost of living

Trump starts a 32-day midterm campaign tour in Texas and Oklahoma, with stops planned in at least 17 states

Talarico leads Paxton 51-49 among likely voters in Fox's first Texas Senate poll

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