News news4 stories
Ongoing2 earlier updates7 days
This story has run 3 times over 7 days, starting Sep 29.
- Justice Alito will sit out the Supreme Court climate case against Exxon and Suncor, leaving eight justices to decide it
- UpdateSupreme Court hears Exxon and Suncor's bid to end Boulder's climate-damage suit Monday, Oct. 5, with eight justices
- UpdateSupreme Court hears Exxon and Suncor's bid to end Boulder's climate suit; Roberts, Gorsuch and Barrett press the companies — this issue
The Trump administration argued for the oil companies, and several justices asked whether the court can review the unfinished case at all.
Eight justices heard nearly two hours of argument Monday, Oct. 5, on whether Boulder's Colorado-law climate suit against Exxon Mobil and Suncor can go forward or is barred by federal law. Justice Samuel Alito sat out. He owns stock in ConocoPhillips and Phillips 66, though not in Exxon or Suncor.
The pushback. Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett, three conservatives, pressed the companies hard. Roberts said he was "not quite sure what makes this situation different from all those other ones, where we've allowed them to proceed in state court." Justice Elena Kagan compared the suit to tobacco and opioid litigation: "This is Chapter 3. So, if this is Chapter 3, were Chapters 1 and 2 also preempted?" (blocked by federal law). Shanmugam answered that it was a "different book."
The companies' side. The Trump administration backed Exxon and Suncor through Principal Deputy Solicitor General Sarah Harris, a top Justice Department lawyer at the court. Justice Brett Kavanaugh urged the companies to rely on Clean Air Act precedent (past rulings on the main federal air-pollution law) instead of a constitutional theory: "We don't have to reinvent the wheel."
The exit door. Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson told Suncor's lawyer the appeal was "sort of premature from the standpoint of this court exercising its jurisdiction."
Where it stands. A 4-4 tie would leave the Colorado Supreme Court's ruling in place, and Boulder's suit would proceed.
Catch up
On Sept. 28, the Court's clerk told lawyers that Justice Samuel Alito would sit out the case, leaving eight justices to decide whether Colorado climate-damage suits against Exxon and Suncor can proceed. On Oct. 3, Alito, 76, said in a CBS interview that he weighed retiring after last term and will reconsider every year.
How earlier climate suits fared in federal courts
- 2011: Supreme Court ruled 8-0 that the Clean Air Act displaced federal nuisance claims seeking emission caps (AEP v. Connecticut)
- 2021: Second Circuit dismissed New York City's suit because it targeted cross-border emissions directly
- Jan. 2025: Supreme Court declined Honolulu's similar case after the Solicitor General called review premature
Red take
Boulder should not set national climate policy through a local jury; as Justice Brett Kavanaugh said, 'We don't have to reinvent the wheel.' In 2011 the court ruled 8-0 that the Clean Air Act displaced suits seeking emission caps, and a 'deception' label cannot hide damages that flow from emissions. Let this suit stand, and any county can bill Exxon and Suncor for a global climate only Congress can regulate.
Blue take
Boulder accuses Exxon and Suncor of deceiving the public, a Colorado-law claim the state's Supreme Court let proceed in May 2025. Even Chief Justice John Roberts was 'not quite sure what makes this situation different' from suits the court has left in state court. End it on an appeal Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson called 'sort of premature,' and oil companies accused of misleading the public never answer for it at trial.
Ongoing4 earlier updates6 days
This story has run 5 times over 6 days, starting Sep 30.
- UpdateUK police found petrol, not explosives, in three vans tied to five bailed Fairford suspects
- UK police arrest a sixth suspect, a 27-year-old UK-Iranian national, over Sept. 27's RAF Fairford incident
- UpdateUK police free sixth RAF Fairford terror suspect, a UK-Iranian national, on bail
- UpdatePentagon flies all 12 B-1 bombers out of RAF Fairford, the UK base tied to a suspected Iran-linked plot
- UpdateTrump says threats drove all 12 B-1 bombers out of a UK base, hours after Rubio called it a routine rotation — this issue
U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal the threat was an Iranian plot to hit the jets with drones and kill American pilots.
The pull-out. Donald Trump said Monday, Oct. 5, that the U.S. pulled all 12 of its B-1 bombers from RAF Fairford, a British airfield the U.S. Air Force uses for bombers, because of threats, and that Washington knows who made them.
"They didn't fly out by accident. There were some threats. And rather than tempting the enemy, we'll capture the enemy and beat the enemy."Donald Trump
Rubio's account. Hours earlier, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the move a routine rotation and said he "wouldn't directly tie" it to the suspected plot.
Congress. Mark Warner (Sen-D Virginia), the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, says senators were never briefed on the move.
Still open. All six people arrested in the case are out on bail. Neither government has publicly confirmed the Iranian drone plot that U.S. officials described to The Wall Street Journal.
Catch up
- Sun., Sept. 27 — British counterterrorism police arrested five UK men with three vans in Whelford, about 2 miles from the RAF Fairford runway.
- Wed., Sept. 30 — Police said the vans held petrol, not explosives, freed the five on bail, and complained that U.S. commentary was stoking fear.
- Thu., Oct. 1 — Police arrested a sixth suspect, a 27-year-old British-Iranian, in Westminster on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts.
- Sat., Oct. 3 — He was released on bail too, leaving all six suspects free.
- Sun., Oct. 4 — The Pentagon flew every deployed B-1 home without giving a reason; one U.S. official cited an Iranian threat to the base.
3 earlier issues
The order also tells the Transportation Department to work with states on waiving their own diesel taxes; only Ohio, Georgia and Kentucky have suspended theirs.
Trump signed an executive order Monday, Oct. 5, loosening the rules on dyed diesel. Red diesel is ordinary diesel dyed red to mark it for untaxed off-road use, such as tractors, construction equipment and generators. It skips the 24.4-cent-a-gallon federal highway tax. The goal is to cut record-high fuel costs before the November midterm elections. Vice President JD Vance pushed the idea as relief for farmers. The national average diesel price was $6.32 a gallon Monday, per the Washington Examiner.
Still open. Analysts doubt the order will move pump prices much.
Red take
Trump's order puts money back with farmers now: easing limits on red diesel, the dyed fuel that skips the 24.4-cent federal road tax, cuts what each gallon costs the buyer, whatever the national average does. Diesel has gone from $3.49 a gallon in May 2025 to $6.38 in late September, and leaving that break on the table means farmers keep eating record fuel costs with no relief in sight.
Blue take
Loosening red-diesel rules buys a pre-midterm headline, not cheaper fuel: analysts doubt it will move the $6.32 average much. Running untaxed dyed fuel on roads normally draws an IRS penalty of $1,000 or $10 a gallon, and past exceptions were short, local and followed hurricanes like Harvey and Irma. Stretch that to cover high prices weeks before the Nov. 3 vote, and every future president inherits a road-fuel tax to waive whenever an election nears.
Russia lists the cause as pneumonia of undetermined origin, but has quarantined a hospital and put nearly 200 contacts under watch.
The death. A 28-year-old worker at Irkutsk's anti-plague research institute, a Siberian lab that studies the disease, died last week. Russian officials list the cause as pneumonia of undetermined origin and say her samples showed no microbes tied to her lab work. No other institute staff have reported illness.
The U.S. watch. The State Department and CDC are tracking it as a suspected case of pneumonic plague, the lung form of the infection.
“I don't think it's cause for alarm, but it is cause for focus and the cause to just keep an eye on it and we're doing that.”Secretary of State Marco Rubio
The offer. Trump said the U.S. would help Russia and that he has not spoken with Putin about it. He added: "That's a disease we used to be able to control, but somehow those microbes got stronger and smarter than like an army." ([TS]Per CDC, standard antibiotics still treat plague and usually stop it spreading within hours.)
Still open. Russia has not published a confirmed cause of death, and no second case has been reported.
Quick bites11
White House bars Politico, the assigned print pooler, from Air Force One on Trump's Nebraska trip
TIMEUpdateOn Monday, Oct. 5, the White House kept Politico, the designated print pooler, off Air Force One to Nebraska. Judge Kelly's order covers the grounds but not the plane, so the trip had no primary print pooler ahead of the hearing set for Thursday, Oct. 8.
Catch up
- Sept. 18 — Trump banned CNN, MS NOW and Politico from the White House.
- Sept. 22 — The three outlets sued Trump, chief of staff Susie Wiles and two other advisers; five TV networks then suspended pool coverage.
- Sept. 23 — Judge Timothy Kelly heard their emergency request without ruling, leaving 78 credentialed journalists locked out.
- Sept. 24 — Kelly restored their credentials to the grounds for 14 days; reporters were readmitted the next day.
- Sept. 27 — The White House left CNN off Air Force One for a Knoxville trip; Real America's Voice took the seat.
- Sept. 28 — Attorney General Todd Blanche defended the ban.
- Sept. 30 — The outlets asked Kelly to keep the ban blocked until the case ends; the TV pool resumed.
Where the fight stands
- CNN was also removed from presidential pool duty last week.
- Kelly's order lasts 14 days; the outlets want it kept in place until the case ends.
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times over 9 days, starting Sep 27.
- UpdateWhite House leaves CNN off Air Force One two days after judge restored its pass
- UpdateWhite House bars Politico, the assigned print pooler, from Air Force One on Trump's Nebraska trip — this issue
Trump says the New York Times should be arrested over its report of empty rally seats
THE HILLTrump claimed on Truth Social on Monday, Oct. 5, that his Saturday rally arena in Vandalia, Ohio, was "MAXED OUT," though The Times reported empty upper-deck sections by the end. The high school student center seats 4,500. Trump said upper-deck fans "migrate down to the Main Floor."
What he said
- Trump's exact words: the Times "and many other Artificial Media Outlets, should be arrested for their dishonesty and disservice to our Country."
- Trump also said thousands of people were turned away at the door.
Trump says he and his super PAC, MAGA Inc., will pay for pro-Trump ads that DHS had funded with $20 million
POLITICOAfter more than a week of criticism from both parties, Trump said on Monday, Oct. 5, that he would pay for the ads "myself, and with money I raised for MAGA, Inc." He gave no dollar figure or date, and nobody has said whether the $20 million DHS already spent will be paid back.
The fight over the ads
- DHS made more than a dozen spots, including "God made Trump," that ran during NFL games and on Fox News, CNN and MS NOW.
- Democrats say the ads break laws against spending public money on propaganda.
- John Kennedy (Sen-R Louisiana): "I don't think any public official, including President Trump or Kristi Noem or John Kennedy, should spend public money on private ads for themselves."
PEN America counted a record 11,982 school book bans in 2025-26, more than 8,100 of them in Texas
THE HILLPEN America, a free-speech group that tracks school book removals, counted 11,982 bans in U.S. public schools in the 2025-26 school year, up from 6,870 the year before. Texas led every state after its new law, SB 13, took effect.
How the yearly count climbed
- 2021-22: 2,532 bans
- 2022-23: 3,362 bans
- 2023-24: 10,046 bans, the old record
Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces say they took Mocha and secured the Bab el-Mandeb Strait
BLOOMBERGUpdateIran warThe Giants Brigades spearheaded the push on Mocha on Monday, Oct. 5, under heavy Saudi air cover, and government forces say they secured the strait around the Dhubab district. The Saudi-led coalition says its jets hit more than 300 targets; Houthi media deny the advance, and the Houthis say they fired missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco sites.
How we got here
- Sep. 11 — The Houthis seized Perim Island at the mouth of the Red Sea, as more than 100 U.S. advisers supported the Saudi campaign against them.
- Sep. 14 — The Houthis claimed new missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia; a projectile wounded two in al-Tawwal.
- Sep. 23 — Gulf leaders urged Trump not to escalate with Iran after weekend strikes, fearing a wider war and less U.S. defense help.
- Oct. 2 — Vance chaired a secret Camp David meeting of Trump's security cabinet on resuming the Iran war and the Saudi request; Trump did not attend.
- Oct. 3 — The U.S. refused Saudi requests to bomb the Houthis and sent targeting data for a Saudi ground offensive instead.
- Oct. 4 — Yemen's government launched an offensive to retake all Houthi-held land, including Sanaa, with U.S. intelligence but no U.S. strikes "for now."
US citizen shot five times by Border Patrol agent in Chicago sues the federal government
NBC NEWSImmigration enforcementMarimar Martinez, a Montessori teaching aide shot by agent Charles Exum during Operation Midway Blitz in October 2025, filed a Federal Tort Claims Act suit on Monday, Oct. 5. Prosecutors had charged her with trying to ram officers, then dropped the case.
- Claims: negligence, battery, assault, false arrest, false imprisonment and malicious prosecution
- Her lawyers are also urging criminal charges against Exum
- Attorney Michael Gallagher: "She almost lost her life as a result."
Trump says refinery losses in Russia and California, not Iran's Hormuz closure, now drive gas prices
THE HILLIran warOn Truth Social, Trump wrote that refineries are the problem, "where Russia's are being blown up by Ukraine, and where ours are being closed up, in Blue States, like California, by the Dumocrats."
- AAA national average on Monday, Oct. 5: more than $4.36 a gallon, down from the $4.47 summer peak.
- Diesel averages $6.32 a gallon.
Trump says Republicans can vote by mail 'because we seem to have no choice' but prefers in-person
WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdateHe repeated claims of widespread mail fraud and called Maricopa County "very, very dishonest" over 3,100 ballots mailed early, which the county blames on a vendor and says still count. When a reporter said there was no evidence, Trump answered, "You are fake news."
On Oct. 4, Trump urged Republicans to vote by mail and vote early in the midterms.
Trump rallies in Nebraska for Sen. Pete Ricketts against independent Dan Osborn
THE GUARDIANPete Ricketts (Sen-R Nebraska) faces Dan Osborn (I-NE), who has Democratic backing and no Democrat splitting his vote, because the Democratic primary winner withdrew from the ballot.
Why a red state needs a rally
- Beef: ranchers oppose the administration's plan to import more foreign beef, and Ricketts said, "I would advise the White House to change that policy."
- 2024: Osborn ran a close race against Sen. Deb Fischer but lost, per The Hill.
- Blitz: the Grand Island stop is part of Trump's 32-day pre-election rally tour.
Flávio Bolsonaro finishes first over Lula (President, Brazil), forcing an Oct. 25 runoff
PBS NEWSHOURUpdateWith 99.8% of votes counted, Bolsonaro had just over 56 million votes to Lula's 53.7 million, and Lula is now trying to reset a campaign that had hoped to win outright in the first round.
Catch up
Polls heading into Brazil's Oct. 4 first-round vote showed a close race, and the final Datafolha poll put Lula ahead 42%-38%. Lula's campaign had hoped to win outright with more than half the valid votes.
What each side said
- Lula: "I am very good in the knockout stage."
- Flávio Bolsonaro: "It's the end of the Workers' Party era."
Ongoing2
This story has run 3 times over 2 days, starting Oct 4.
- Polls show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a close race before Brazil's first-round vote Sunday, Oct. 4
- UpdateFlávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in Brazil's first-round presidential vote count; Oct. 25 runoff likely
- UpdateFlávio Bolsonaro finishes first over Lula (President, Brazil), forcing an Oct. 25 runoff — this issue
Obama will campaign in Detroit on Oct. 24 for Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed (D-MI)
THE GUARDIANGubernatorial nominee Jocelyn Benson (D-MI) joins the rally for El-Sayed, a progressive who narrowly beat Haley Stevens (Rep-D Michigan) in the August primary.
Behind the rally
- Stevens won Wayne County, which includes Detroit, with about 51% to El-Sayed's roughly 45%.
- AIPAC and allied groups spent $30 million against El-Sayed in the primary, per The Guardian.
- Obama taped two dozen ads last week for Democratic Senate and governor candidates.
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times over 13 days, starting Sep 23.
- Kamala Harris campaigns in Detroit to shore up Black voters for Abdul El-Sayed
- Obama will campaign in Detroit on Oct. 24 for Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed (D-MI) — this issue
Elections22 races
The midterms · 28 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 93%, Kalshi 91%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 66%, Kalshi 65%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 1.0pp gap / 1.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 93% | 91% | 63% | 62% |
| 6 days ago | 93% | 92% | 63% | 62% |
| 5 days ago | 93% | 92% | 65% | 63% |
| 4 days ago | 94% | 92% | 65% | 63% |
| 3 days ago | 93% | 92% | 68% | 63% |
| 2 days ago | 93% | 92% | 66% | 64% |
| yesterday | 93% | 92% | 66% | 63% |
| today | 93% | 91% | 66% | 65% |
3 closest races
tGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Rick Jackson (R) faces Keisha Lance Bottoms (D).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and it is a dead heat — the two sides are priced within three points of each other.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 52.5%; Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 48.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rick Jackson 52% · Keisha Lance Bottoms 49%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$70.3K48.5%Kalshi616K contracts · 52%/53%52.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+2.0ppKeisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$83.1K52.5%Kalshi614K contracts · 48%/49%51.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT. Day Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi 7 days ago 48.5% 52.0% 52.5% 51.0% 6 days ago 52.0% 52.0% 48.5% 49.0% 5 days ago 51.5% 52.0% 48.5% 50.0% 4 days ago 52.5% 52.0% 46.0% 48.0% 3 days ago 54.5% 53.0% 45.5% 49.0% 2 days ago 50.5% 53.0% 47.5% 48.0% yesterday 50.5% 53.0% 49.5% 47.0% today 50.5% 52.5% 49.5% 48.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
uNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Aaron Ford (D) faces Joe Lombardo (R).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead after gaining about six points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 51.5%; Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 48.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Aaron Ford 52% · Joe Lombardo 47%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Aaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$184K48.5%Kalshi884K contracts · 51%/52%46.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+7.0ppJoe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$155K51.5%Kalshi376K contracts · 48%/49%54.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-7.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT. Day Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi 7 days ago 48.5% 46.0% 51.5% 54.0% 6 days ago 48.5% 47.0% 50.5% 52.0% 5 days ago 49.0% 47.0% 50.5% 54.0% 4 days ago 53.5% 47.0% 47.5% 53.0% 3 days ago 51.5% 47.0% 48.0% 52.0% 2 days ago 55.5% 49.0% 44.5% 52.0% yesterday 55.5% 48.0% 44.5% 53.0% today 55.5% 51.5% 44.5% 48.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
pIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 42.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 57% · Josh Turek 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$344K58.5%Kalshi2.1M contracts · 56%/57%59.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$386K41.5%Kalshi2.3M contracts · 43%/44%41.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 58.5% 59.0% 41.5% 41.0% 6 days ago 58.5% 60.0% 41.5% 42.0% 5 days ago 56.5% 60.0% 43.0% 42.0% 4 days ago 56.5% 58.0% 43.5% 42.0% 3 days ago 57.5% 56.0% 41.5% 45.0% 2 days ago 57.5% 57.0% 42.5% 45.0% yesterday 57.5% 57.0% 42.5% 44.0% today 57.5% 56.5% 42.5% 43.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 19 races
Senate9 of 10
oAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 74% · Dan Sullivan 28%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$698K72.5%Kalshi181K contracts · 73%/74%73.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$338K28.5%Kalshi157K contracts · 27%/28%27.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 72.5% 73.0% 28.5% 27.0% 6 days ago 72.5% 73.0% 28.5% 28.0% 5 days ago 71.5% 72.0% 28.5% 31.0% 4 days ago 72.5% 70.0% 27.5% 29.0% 3 days ago 72.5% 69.0% 27.5% 30.0% 2 days ago 73.5% 70.0% 27.5% 29.0% yesterday 73.5% 73.0% 27.5% 28.0% today 73.5% 73.5% 27.5% 27.5% wGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.3pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 96.2%, Kalshi 96.3%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 3.45%, Kalshi 3.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.3pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 96% · Mike Collins 3.7%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$89.4K95.5%Kalshi457K contracts · 96%/97%94.8%venue gap0.7pp7-day move+0.7ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$117K3.95%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 3.6%/3.9%4.20%venue gap0.3pp7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 95.50% 94.8% 3.95% 4.20% 6 days ago 97.30% 95.8% 2.85% 4.60% 5 days ago 97.15% 95.0% 2.65% 5.50% 4 days ago 97.20% 95.3% 2.80% 4.70% 3 days ago 97.15% 96.3% 2.95% 4.40% 2 days ago 96.20% 96.3% 3.30% 4.40% yesterday 96.20% 94.9% 3.45% 4.40% today 96.20% 96.3% 3.45% 3.75% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
mMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 55.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 56% · Susan Collins 44%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$1.2M58.5%Kalshi3.6M contracts · 55%/56%60.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$937K40.5%Kalshi4.0M contracts · 44%/45%41.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 58.5% 60.0% 40.5% 41.0% 6 days ago 56.5% 60.0% 42.5% 40.0% 5 days ago 59.5% 59.0% 40.5% 42.0% 4 days ago 59.5% 58.0% 40.5% 41.0% 3 days ago 58.5% 60.0% 42.5% 41.0% 2 days ago 58.5% 59.0% 41.5% 41.0% yesterday 58.5% 58.0% 41.5% 43.0% today 58.5% 55.5% 41.5% 44.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
qMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 74% · Mike Rogers 27%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$756K72.5%Kalshi2.2M contracts · 73%/74%72.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$551K27.5%Kalshi2.9M contracts · 26%/27%29.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 72.5% 72.0% 27.5% 29.0% 6 days ago 71.5% 74.0% 28.5% 27.0% 5 days ago 72.5% 73.0% 27.5% 29.0% 4 days ago 72.5% 72.0% 27.5% 30.0% 3 days ago 72.5% 73.0% 27.0% 27.0% 2 days ago 73.5% 71.0% 26.5% 29.0% yesterday 73.5% 71.0% 26.5% 29.0% today 73.5% 73.5% 26.5% 26.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
xNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 71.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 28.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 72% · Dan Osborn 28%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$264K70.5%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 71%/72%71.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+3.0ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$128K30.5%Kalshi867K contracts · 28%/29%28.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-4.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 70.5% 71.0% 30.5% 28.0% 6 days ago 73.5% 73.0% 25.5% 27.0% 5 days ago 74.0% 72.0% 25.5% 29.0% 4 days ago 72.5% 73.0% 27.0% 27.0% 3 days ago 72.5% 73.0% 27.5% 28.0% 2 days ago 73.5% 73.0% 26.5% 28.0% yesterday 73.5% 73.0% 26.5% 27.0% today 73.5% 71.5% 26.5% 28.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
yNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 87.0%, Kalshi 86.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 13.5%, Kalshi 13.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 87% · John E. Sununu 14%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$153K85.5%Kalshi479K contracts · 86%/87%86.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.5ppJohn E. Sununu (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$155K13.5%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 13%/14%15.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago 85.5% 86.0% 13.5% 15.0% 6 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 14.0% 5 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 15.0% 4 days ago 87.5% 87.0% 13.5% 13.0% 3 days ago 86.5% 85.0% 14.0% 15.0% 2 days ago 87.0% 86.0% 13.5% 14.0% yesterday 87.0% 86.0% 13.5% 14.0% today 87.0% 86.5% 13.5% 13.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
vNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 96.25%, Kalshi 96.80%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 3.65%, Kalshi 3.30%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 97% · Michael Whatley 3.3%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$105K95.5%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 97%/97%94.3%venue gap1.2pp7-day move+0.8ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$110K4.5%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 3.0%/3.6%5.8%venue gap1.3pp7-day move-0.9ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 95.50% 94.3% 4.50% 5.8% 6 days ago 95.50% 94.6% 4.50% 6.0% 5 days ago 95.50% 94.1% 4.50% 6.5% 4 days ago 96.20% 94.1% 3.55% 6.3% 3 days ago 96.10% 95.0% 3.85% 4.8% 2 days ago 96.20% 95.2% 3.65% 4.9% yesterday 96.25% 95.3% 3.65% 5.3% today 96.25% 96.8% 3.65% 3.3% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
rOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 63.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 35.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 63% · Jon Husted 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$620K59.5%Kalshi3.1M contracts · 63%/64%59.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+2.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$432K39.5%Kalshi2.9M contracts · 35%/36%43.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 59.5% 59.0% 39.5% 43.0% 6 days ago 58.5% 61.0% 41.5% 41.0% 5 days ago 59.5% 59.0% 41.5% 41.0% 4 days ago 60.5% 61.0% 39.5% 40.0% 3 days ago 61.5% 60.0% 38.5% 41.0% 2 days ago 61.5% 63.0% 38.5% 38.0% yesterday 61.5% 64.0% 38.5% 37.0% today 61.5% 63.5% 38.5% 35.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
nTexas Senate
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate
Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 64.5%, Kalshi 65.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 34.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: James Talarico 65% · Ken Paxton 35%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
James Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$1.0M64.5%Kalshi7.8M contracts · 65%/66%60.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move0.0ppKen Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$1.1M35.5%Kalshi11M contracts · 34%/35%41.0%venue gap5.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT. Day James Talarico · Polymarket James Talarico · Kalshi Ken Paxton · Polymarket Ken Paxton · Kalshi 7 days ago 64.5% 60.0% 35.5% 41.0% 6 days ago 61.5% 59.0% 38.5% 41.0% 5 days ago 60.5% 61.0% 38.5% 39.0% 4 days ago 64.5% 63.0% 36.5% 37.0% 3 days ago 63.5% 64.0% 35.5% 38.0% 2 days ago 64.5% 65.0% 35.5% 36.0% yesterday 64.5% 63.0% 35.5% 37.0% today 64.5% 65.5% 35.5% 34.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors10 of 12
aaAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
Wilson holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.4pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 21%, Kalshi 21%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.05%, Kalshi 0.70%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 21% · Tom Begich 0.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$187K19.5%Kalshi58.3K contracts · 20%/22%—venue gap—7-day move+1.5ppTom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$166K1.05%Kalshi246K contracts · 0.5%/0.9%—venue gap—7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT. Day Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi 7 days ago 19.5% — 1.05% — 6 days ago 18.0% 19% 1.05% — 5 days ago 18.0% 14% 1.05% 1.0% 4 days ago 18.5% 18% 1.05% 0.9% 3 days ago 18.5% 16% 1.00% 0.6% 2 days ago 21.0% 21% 1.00% 0.6% yesterday 21.0% 20% 1.05% 0.5% today 21.0% 21% 1.05% 0.7% acArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 91.5%, Kalshi 88.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 9.5%, Kalshi 11.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 89% · Andy Biggs 11%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$57.5K88.5%Kalshi348K contracts · 88%/89%89.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+3.0ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$55.5K10.5%Kalshi285K contracts · 11%/12%13.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 88.5% 89.0% 10.5% 13.0% 6 days ago 88.5% 89.0% 10.5% 13.0% 5 days ago 88.5% 88.0% 10.5% 12.0% 4 days ago 88.5% 88.0% 10.5% 12.0% 3 days ago 91.5% 89.0% 8.5% 13.0% 2 days ago 91.5% 88.0% 9.5% 13.0% yesterday 91.5% 88.0% 9.5% 12.0% today 91.5% 88.5% 9.5% 11.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
agFlorida governor
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 76.5%, Kalshi 76.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 23.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 76% · David Jolly 23%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$124K78.5%Kalshi1.6M contracts · 76%/77%78.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-2.0ppDavid Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$137K21.5%Kalshi753K contracts · 23%/24%24.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT. Day Byron Donalds · Polymarket Byron Donalds · Kalshi David Jolly · Polymarket David Jolly · Kalshi 7 days ago 78.5% 78.0% 21.5% 24.0% 6 days ago 78.5% 78.0% 21.5% 23.0% 5 days ago 77.5% 78.0% 22.5% 24.0% 4 days ago 77.5% 77.0% 22.5% 24.0% 3 days ago 76.5% 77.0% 24.5% 23.0% 2 days ago 76.5% 76.0% 23.5% 24.0% yesterday 76.5% 78.0% 23.5% 24.0% today 76.5% 76.5% 23.5% 23.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
zIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about five points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 88.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 11.5%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 89% · Zach Lahn 12%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$67.7K83.5%Kalshi444K contracts · 88%/89%84.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+5.0ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$60.7K14.5%Kalshi689K contracts · 12%/13%17.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 83.5% 84.0% 14.5% 17.0% 6 days ago 84.5% 85.0% 14.5% 17.0% 5 days ago 84.5% 85.0% 14.5% 17.0% 4 days ago 84.5% 85.0% 14.0% 17.0% 3 days ago 88.5% 85.0% 11.5% 17.0% 2 days ago 88.5% 85.0% 11.5% 17.0% yesterday 88.5% 86.0% 11.5% 16.0% today 88.5% 88.5% 11.5% 12.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
abMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.1pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 94.05%, Kalshi 93.00%; John James (R): Polymarket 5.20%, Kalshi 7.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.1pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 94% · John James 6.2%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$77.9K91.5%Kalshi80.4K contracts · 93%/93%91.7%venue gap0.2pp7-day move+2.5ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$167K8.5%Kalshi165K contracts · 6.8%/7.7%8.7%venue gap0.2pp7-day move-3.3ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 91.50% 91.7% 8.50% 8.70% 6 days ago 91.50% 91.8% 8.50% 8.70% 5 days ago 91.50% 92.8% 8.50% 9.90% 4 days ago 94.65% 91.8% 5.30% 8.60% 3 days ago 94.15% 92.6% 5.55% 6.90% 2 days ago 94.10% 93.2% 4.95% 7.30% yesterday 94.05% 93.3% 5.20% 6.90% today 94.05% 93.0% 5.20% 7.25% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aeNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 96.15%, Kalshi 95.95%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 3.9%, Kalshi 4.4%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 96% · Bruce Blakeman 4.4%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$56.1K95.5%Kalshi447K contracts · 96%/96%94.8%venue gap0.7pp7-day move+0.7ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$107K4.5%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 4.1%/4.7%5.9%venue gap1.4pp7-day move-0.6ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 95.50% 94.80% 4.50% 5.9% 6 days ago 95.50% 94.50% 4.50% 5.6% 5 days ago 95.50% 94.40% 4.50% 4.9% 4 days ago 95.50% 95.00% 4.50% 5.7% 3 days ago 95.50% 95.00% 4.00% 5.2% 2 days ago 96.10% 95.00% 3.95% 5.0% yesterday 96.15% 95.10% 3.90% 5.5% today 96.15% 95.95% 3.90% 4.4% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
lOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: the Republican side is down about seven points.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 66.5%, Kalshi 65.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 35.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 66% · Vivek Ramaswamy 35%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$133K60.5%Kalshi904K contracts · 65%/66%61.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+6.0ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$149K39.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 34%/36%41.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-7.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 60.5% 61.0% 39.5% 41% 6 days ago 61.5% 61.0% 36.5% 40% 5 days ago 61.5% 59.0% 36.5% 41% 4 days ago 65.5% 62.0% 34.5% 38% 3 days ago 67.0% 62.0% 33.5% 38% 2 days ago 67.5% 64.0% 32.5% 37% yesterday 66.5% 66.0% 32.5% 33% today 66.5% 65.5% 32.5% 35% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
afPennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.7pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.9%, Kalshi 97.6%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.6%, Kalshi 2.3%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.7pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 98% · Stacy Garrity 2.3%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$7.8K96.95%Kalshi105K contracts · 97%/98%97.70%venue gap0.7pp7-day move-0.1ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$42.5K2.65%Kalshi412K contracts · 2.2%/2.4%2.70%venue gap0.1pp7-day move-0.1ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 96.95% 97.7% 2.65% 2.7% 6 days ago 97.05% 97.7% 2.60% 4.9% 5 days ago 97.20% 97.3% 2.60% 2.7% 4 days ago 96.90% 97.4% 2.60% 3.7% 3 days ago 96.85% 97.4% 2.65% 2.7% 2 days ago 96.90% 97.7% 2.65% 3.5% yesterday 96.95% 97.8% 2.60% 2.2% today 96.90% 97.6% 2.60% 2.3% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
adTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead after the Democratic side gained about six points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 72.95%, Kalshi 74.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 25.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 74% · Gina Hinojosa 26%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$256K78.85%Kalshi485K contracts · 74%/75%80.00%venue gap1.2pp7-day move-5.9ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$192K20.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 25%/26%20.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+7.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 78.85% 80.0% 20.5% 20.0% 6 days ago 82.65% 79.0% 17.5% 23.0% 5 days ago 82.55% 78.0% 17.5% 24.0% 4 days ago 74.15% 82.0% 24.5% 21.0% 3 days ago 73.85% 80.0% 26.5% 21.0% 2 days ago 72.95% 76.0% 27.5% 25.0% yesterday 72.95% 74.0% 27.5% 27.0% today 72.95% 74.5% 27.5% 25.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
sWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 80% · Tom Tiffany 20%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$360K80.5%Kalshi496K contracts · 79%/80%82.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$343K19.5%Kalshi796K contracts · 20%/21%17.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 80.5% 82.0% 19.5% 17.0% 6 days ago 82.5% 84.0% 17.5% 17.0% 5 days ago 81.5% 82.0% 18.5% 19.0% 4 days ago 82.5% 81.0% 18.5% 20.0% 3 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 18.5% 21.0% 2 days ago 80.5% 80.0% 18.5% 20.0% yesterday 80.5% 79.0% 18.5% 21.0% today 80.5% 79.5% 18.5% 20.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
Not news news2 stories
The fiscal year that ended Sept. 30 ran a deficit of about $2 trillion, or 6.2% of GDP, per a preliminary Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimate.
Gross federal debt has passed $40 trillion, Reason reported Monday, Oct. 5. In February, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO, Congress's nonpartisan budget scorekeeper) projected $39.4 trillion by the end of fiscal 2026 on Sept. 30. In 2020, CBO did not expect the debt to reach $40 trillion this decade.
Interest on the debt cost a record $1.1 trillion in fiscal 2026, or 3.4% of GDP. That is more than the government spent on defense or on Medicare.
What next. CBO projects gross debt reaching $43.3 trillion by the end of 2028.
- Of the total, $32.3 trillion, about 100% of GDP, is held by the public: Treasury bills, notes and bonds sold to banks, pension funds, the Federal Reserve and foreign governments. The rest is owed to federal trust funds such as Social Security and Medicare, an internal IOU that does not borrow from private markets.
The Defense Department cut off Anthropic after labeling it a national security supply-chain risk in February 2026; Google, xAI and OpenAI hold Pentagon AI contracts.
A Pentagon official told the BBC the department "has ceased the use of Anthropic products." Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth labeled Anthropic a national security supply-chain risk in February 2026. He did so after the company refused to drop safety limits built into Claude, its AI model.
Still open. Anthropic is suing over the designation.
BackgroundWhere Claude ran inside Pentagon systems before the ban
- Claude ran inside the Maven Smart System, Palantir's intelligence and targeting platform, analyzing satellite, drone and signals data.
- Maven's five-year contract ceiling grew from $480 million to $1.275 billion, as planned users grew from hundreds to thousands.
- Anthropic was the first frontier AI company deployed on classified U.S. government networks, starting in June 2024.