2026-09-063us
contested

[UPDATE] 162,000 jobs added in August, triple the forecast; Trump blames the Fed and says markets are wrong

Stocks fell and the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.79% on Friday, Sept. 4, as traders read the hiring surge as a reason the Fed might raise rates rather than cut them.

U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in August, nearly triple the 65,000 economists expected, and the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. Instead of a victory lap, Trump spent Friday, Sept. 4 in the Oval Office complaining about inflation, interest rates and the rising 10-year Treasury yield, blaming the Federal Reserve and America's trading partners. He has threatened to halt trade with countries that run a trade surplus against the U.S. unless the Fed cuts rates. (TS: Forecasts ranged from 53,000 (CNBC consensus) to 65,000 (AP); actual was 162,000 per BLS.) The numbers behind it: * Jobs added in August: 162,000 * Forecast: 65,000 * Unemployment rate: 4.1%, unchanged * Average hourly wage growth, year over year: 3.1%, the weakest since May 2021 * 10-year Treasury yield, Friday, Sept. 4: 4.79% What next. The Fed's rate-setting committee (the group of officials who set short-term borrowing costs) meets Sept. 15-16, and August inflation figures land Sept. 11.

  • Aug. 19, 2026 — The national debt crossed $40 trillion, up from $30 trillion in early 2022.
  • Sept. 4, 2026 — Trump, on Truth Social and again in the Oval Office, threatened to halt trade with countries running trade deficits with the U.S. unless the Fed cuts rates.
  • Sept. 5, 2026 — Labor Department revisions added a combined 55,000 jobs to June and July, flipping July from a reported loss of 23,000 to a gain of 21,000.

What this jobs surprise did to September rate bets:

  • Market-implied odds of a September rate hike rose to 58%, from 49.4% the day before the report.
  • Odds of a September cut fell to 0%, down from 90% after July's weak jobs report.