Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark rate a quarter point on Wednesday, Sept. 16, its first hike in three years.
Interest-rate swaps price a 90% probability of an increase from the 3.5%–3.75% target range seven weeks before the midterm elections, defying Donald Trump's demands for cuts.
The decision. The Federal Open Market Committee is poised to lift its policy rate to a 3.75%–4% range with inflation still running above the central bank's 2% target. The move follows a bond selloff that lifted the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield to 5.02%, its highest level since 2007. The pushback. Donald Trump said on Sunday, Sept. 13 that "the United States is so strong we should be paying the lowest interest rate in the world." Administration officials stated they will respect the process. What next. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will hold a news conference on Wednesday, Sept. 16 at 2 p.m. EDT following the policy announcement.
How this committee split narrows from July's five dissents:
Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman are expected to dissent in favor of holding rates steady, pointing to cooling core inflation.
Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan already backed a quarter-point hike during July's 3-2-7 vote split.
Former Chair Jerome Powell remains an active voting governor through January 2028, reinforcing the pro-hike majority.