[UPDATE] Oil's chokepoint shifts to refineries and tankers as JPMorgan drops its baseline oil forecast
A supertanker shortage and a hit on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline are squeezing fuel, not crude.
The oil shock has shifted from crude supply to refining and shipping. JPMorgan says it no longer has a baseline view for oil markets, pointing to the Iran war, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries and Chinese demand. An attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline cut the main route around the blockaded Strait of Hormuz. Supertankers are scarce. Some long-haul crude trades now lose money.
PREVIOUSLY
- Sep. 1 — U.S. forces bombed two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz, killing two; Iran answered with eight missiles at Jordan and Brent climbed.
- Sep. 3 — The U.S. hit about 100 Iranian targets; Iran counted at least 18 dead, including four at a wedding compound, and fired on American bases in four countries.
- Sep. 5-10 — The U.S. destroyed or disabled eight Iranian oil tankers over two rounds; Iran fired 20 missiles at a base in Jordan, 18 intercepted.
- Sep. 8 — Tehran said it would declare a restricted zone near Hormuz and doubled gasoline prices for its heaviest domestic users.
- Sep. 17 — U.S. gas prices climbed again and diesel hit a record; the national diesel average reached $6.29 a gallon on Sep. 14, per the EIA.
- Dozens of nations have capped, subsidized or cut fuel taxes, per the IEA, and are curbing demand with remote work and travel limits.
- The US has set no retail fuel price caps or subsidies.
- IMF officials: "[A] large share of measures described as temporary lack clear expiration dates or fiscal cost estimates."