Political Guyentist

1usUpdate2026 midterms

Fed raises its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since July 2023

Trump called for rates of "1%, or less" and said the blame belongs to the Fed's board, not to the chair he picked, Kevin Warsh.

- Sep. 11 — August consumer prices came in at 3.4% for the year and 0.4% for the month, up from 0.1% in July, with gasoline doing most of the monthly work. - Sep. 12 — Core inflation eased to 2.4%, but markets moved past 80% odds on a Sept. 16 hike. - Sep. 14 — Trump threatened to cut off trade with some countries unless the Fed lowered rates. - Sep. 16 — Swaps traders priced a 90% chance of a quarter-point increase hours before the meeting ended.

ContextCongress gives the Fed two jobs: keep prices stable and keep as many people employed as possible. For the price half, it aims at 2% inflation a year. Prices are running at 3.4%. That gap is the case for raising rates, even as a president heading into midterm elections wants cuts. Trump named Warsh chair, and Warsh was widely expected to favor lower rates. Trump also appointed Jerome Powell, the last chair he attacked this way.

NYT17 sources

2us

House passes the Ratepayer Protection Act, telling state regulators to weigh making data centers pay their own power and grid costs

The bill passed with votes from both parties on Wednesday, Sept. 16, and now needs the Senate; it does not itself cap anyone's electric bill.

The House energy committee advanced the bill unanimously on Thursday, Sept. 3 — no member voted against it. State utility commissions, not Congress, keep the final say over rates either way.

ContextIt is the first data-center bill to clear a chamber of Congress, and likely one of the last the House takes up before the Nov. 3 midterms, with Washington under growing pressure to put guardrails around the AI build-out as power bills climb. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, a South Dakota Republican, has said data centers "ought to be able to take care of their own utilities, their own power"; he has not said whether the Senate will take the bill up.

AXIOS2 sources

3worldIran war

Attacks on Saudi export pipeline push WTI crude to $107.02 a barrel, a 30-day high

Chinese domestic crude prices set records as Beijing runs down the stockpiles it has been using since the Iran war began to hold prices down.

Saudi Arabia ships most of its crude from Gulf terminals feeding the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea passage at the mouth of the Gulf. The east-west pipeline across the kingdom exists to bypass that chokepoint, so hitting it removes the workaround. Pump prices follow crude with a lag of two to six weeks, so drivers see a move like this one weeks after traders do. Chart: West Texas Intermediate spot price, 107.02 dollars per barrel on 2026-09-15, up from 77.33 dollars on Aug. 4 (U.S. Energy Information Administration via FRED).

ContextSaudi Arabia ships most of its crude from Gulf terminals feeding the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea passage at the mouth of the Gulf. The east-west pipeline across the kingdom exists to bypass that chokepoint, so hitting it removes the workaround. Pump prices follow crude with a lag of two to six weeks, so drivers see a move like this one weeks after traders do. Chart: West Texas Intermediate spot price, 107.02 dollars per barrel on 2026-09-15, up from 77.33 dollars on Aug. 4 (U.S. Energy Information Administration via FRED).

FT2 sources

4usUpdateRussia-Ukraine war

Congress sends Trump a bill letting him impose 100% tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil

Named for the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, the bill also requires sanctions on Russian officials, defense contractors and shadow-fleet tankers.

- Aug. 28 — A Russian drone hit an ammunition depot in Myla near Kyiv; 38 died and four went missing. - Sept. 5-6 — Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner carried a U.S. peace proposal to Putin in Moscow, then to Zelensky in Kyiv; Putin ordered a 72-hour halt to strikes on the two capitals. - Sept. 9 — Russia resumed strikes on Kyiv as soon as the pause lapsed, killing seven; Trump and Putin then spoke for an hour. - Sept. 13 — Putin warned that European troops in Ukraine would mean war with Russia, and Moscow rejected European peace plans. - Sept. 16 — The House voted 214-211 to bring the sanctions bill to the floor, with two Democrats saving the rule after two Republicans defected.

ContextThe Senate passed the measure in August with broad bipartisan support, after Trump officially backed it and Sen. Lindsey Graham — the bill's lead sponsor and one of Ukraine's biggest champions in Congress until his sudden death in July — served as the key negotiator with the White House. The bill was renamed for Graham after his death. Sen. Richard Blumenthal, a Connecticut Democrat, helped write the bill, and Rep. Michael McCaul, a Texas Republican, led it in the House. The tariff power is the contested piece — the courts restrained Trump’s earlier tariffs, imposed on his own authority. Blumenthal, who helped write the bill, made the bill’s answer himself: “If Donald Trump wants to break this law, he will be restrained by the courts, just as when he broke the law on tariffs previously.” This time the power comes from Congress, not the president’s own signature.

POLITICO5 sources

5us

More than two dozen lawmakers and governors say they do not use AI while drafting rules

Frank Pallone (D-N.J.), the ranking Democrat on House Energy and Commerce, said he has never used the tools and compared oversight to regulating heroin.

Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), 70, answered “I don’t think I do” when asked whether he uses it; Rep. Bobby Scott (D-Va.), 79, the ranking member on Education and the Workforce, said he uses it every day.

ContextChuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) held nine bipartisan AI forums in fall 2023, but no major bill reached the Senate floor, leaving hiring tools, deepfake fraud, and face tracking without federal limits for voters. The delay mirrors web rules in the 1990s, when Congress passed Section 230 in 1996 and left user privacy to private tech companies.

AXIOS1 source