← 2026-10-048brief

Polls show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a close race before Brazil's first-round vote Sunday, Oct. 4

Lula (President, Brazil), 80, is seeking a fourth term against Flávio Bolsonaro (Senator, Brazil), son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who got 27 years in prison for a coup attempt. Quaest has Lula ahead, 46% to 45%. Datafolha has Lula ahead, 45% to 42%.

The Trump angle and the map:

  • Trump put tariffs on Brazilian imports over Jair Bolsonaro's trial.
  • Lula calls his rival's closeness to Trump a threat to Brazil's sovereignty; Brazilian officials fear U.S. interference.
  • Both closed their campaigns in São Paulo state, home to about a fifth of Brazil's voters.