Political Guyentist

Pentagon says the last US troops have left Iraq, formally ending the 12-year anti-ISIS mission

The Pentagon keeps only training and intelligence support and says "ISIS remnants and Iran-aligned militias" are now Baghdad's job.

- Aug. 31 — Military leaders warned Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth a long Iran war would leave US forces exposed elsewhere; the Pentagon called the leak a crime. - Sept. 14–16 — The Pentagon put defense makers on wartime footing; its watchdog priced the war at $33.4 billion through June 30, plus $3.7 billion in lost equipment. - Sept. 29 — US officials said an Iranian cruise missile hit a ship carrying eight Marines in the Strait of Hormuz on Sept. 14; the Pentagon never announced it. - Sept. 30 — US forces began their final exit from Iraqi bases, a move Reuters and the Washington Post judged shifts power toward Iran, its militias and ISIS.

ContextThis is only the second time all US forces have left Iraq. The first exit was complete by Dec. 18, 2011, and US advisers were back against ISIS in June 2014, 30 months later. When the coalition ended its combat mission on Dec. 9, 2021, about 2,500 US troops stayed on as trainers and advisers. A September 2024 US-Iraq joint statement let the coalition keep fighting ISIS from Iraq "at least through 2026"; its first phase closed coalition sites outside Kurdistan by September 2025. About 4,500 US troops have died in Iraq since 2003, most of them before 2011.

PBS NEWSHOUR10 sources

2usUpdateInflation and the Fed

August PCE inflation was 3.4%, below the 3.7% forecast, cutting October Fed hike odds to 35% from 45%

Inflation-adjusted spending rose 0.6%, the biggest monthly gain since March 2025, while real income was flat and the saving rate fell to 4.1%.

- Sept. 11 — BLS said consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the year, led by gasoline. - Sept. 14 — Trump threatened to cut off trade with some nations unless the Fed cut rates; the 10-year yield topped 5% for the first time since October 2023. - Sept. 16 — The Fed raised its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%–4%, its first hike since July 2023; Trump demanded "1%, or less." - Sept. 22–24 — Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called reaching 2% "painful"; Fed Governor Michael Barr said more increases are likely.

ContextAnnual PCE inflation was 3.7% in July, so August's 3.4% is a step down, per BEA. Core PCE, the gauge the Fed targets, rose 3.0% over the year, down from 3.3% in July and still a full point above the Fed's 2% goal. The 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage rates tend to follow, held at 5.246% on Sept. 30, a day after its highest level since June 2007, per The Guardian. Private employers added 90,000 jobs in September, above forecasts, per ADP.

THE GUARDIAN7 sources

3usUpdateIran war

Hegseth confirms a 20% cut in general and admiral posts, orders a four-star drone command and calls munitions reporting “treason”

The cut removes positions, not people: some jobs drop to colonel or Navy captain rank, and the services must finish by Jan. 1, 2027.

- Sept. 1 — Four four-star commanders reportedly objected to keeping 50,000-plus troops in the Middle East. - Sept. 3 — The Pentagon pulled decades of defense-secretary orders off its classified network after reporting on those objections. - Sept. 30, morning — Hegseth was reported ready to order general and admiral posts cut by Jan. 1, 2027.

ContextFederal law sets a ceiling on the number of generals and admirals (called general and flag officers), not a floor, so a defense secretary can cut below it without a vote in Congress. Defense Secretary Robert Gates removed 103 posts by the end of 2014. The 2017 defense law cut the authorized total from 962 to 852, effective Jan. 1, 2023. Musk's SpaceX and Luckey's Anduril both sell to the Pentagon.

THE GUARDIAN12 sources

4usInflation and the Fed

Fed inspector general finds no crime or misconduct by Powell in headquarters renovation; Trump says he should resign from the board or be sued

Trump asked Attorney General Todd Blanche to "study" the report; the Justice Department closed its own criminal probe of Powell in April 2026.

How the Justice Department's Powell probe ran and ended: Jan. 2026: U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro's office served grand-jury subpoenas on the Fed over Powell's June 2025 Senate testimony about the renovation's costs. Mar. 13, 2026: Judge James Boasberg quashed the subpoenas, finding "essentially zero evidence" of a crime and signs they were meant to pressure Powell on interest rates. April 2026: Pirro dropped the probe but said she would "not hesitate to restart" it if the facts warranted.

ContextPowell's four-year term as chair ended May 15, 2026, and Kevin Warsh, confirmed 54-45, now runs the Fed. Powell keeps his governor seat through Jan. 31, 2028, so Trump cannot name another governor before then unless a seat opens. In Trump v. Cook, decided June 29, the Supreme Court held that a governor can be removed only for cause, and only after notice and a hearing. That statute, not a lawsuit, is the removal route. No governor has ever been removed for cause; the Court called Trump's 2025 attempt on Lisa Cook the first time in the Fed's 111-year history a president tried to fire one.

BLOOMBERG8 sources

5uscontestedImmigration enforcement

Federal Medicaid funding ends Oct. 1 for refugees, asylees and other legal immigrants without green cards; nine states and DC count 281,000 losing coverage

The Congressional Budget Office projected the change would leave 100,000 more immigrants uninsured by 2034.

What the Oct. 1 cutoff leaves in place for affected immigrants: Emergency Medicaid still pays for emergency care, though the law trims its federal match for expansion adults States must give at least 10 days' notice and a fair hearing before ending anyone's coverage States have until Jan. 4, 2027 to actually terminate current enrollees; until then, keeping them costs state dollars only

ContextThe state counts already pass the Congressional Budget Office (CBO, Congress's nonpartisan budget scorekeeper) estimate. More than 281,000 people in nine states and DC are expected to lose Medicaid in October; CBO projected 100,000 more uninsured immigrants from this provision by 2034. The two figures measure different things: states count people losing Medicaid, while CBO counts people left with no insurance at all. Florida alone accounts for nearly 177,000 of the state total. KFF Health News, which gathered the state data, says the impact is far larger than CBO projected. This change is one piece of the same law's Medicaid cuts, which total more than $900 billion through 2034.

KFF HEALTH NEWS2 sources

6us2026 midterms

Four Senate committee leaders release a 400-page bipartisan bill to speed energy permits, with no vote until after the Nov. 3 midterms

Mike Lee (Sen-R Utah) expects it to pass in the post-election session, but it needs 60 Senate votes, so at least seven Democrats must vote yes.

How long federal reviews take now, against the bill's two-year cap: Average environmental impact statement, 2010–2018: 4.5 years from start to final decision, per the White House Council on Environmental Quality Average final statement issued in 2025: 3.0 years, the shortest in the National Association of Environmental Professionals' records SunZia, a 550-mile New Mexico–Arizona power line Heinrich points to: 17 years to permit and build

ContextTwo broad permitting bills have failed in the last four years. Joe Manchin, then a senator from West Virginia, saw his 2022 bill pulled from a spending bill on Sept. 27, 2022, when it fell short of 60 votes. The 2024 bill from Manchin and John Barrasso (Sen-R Wyoming) cleared committee 15-4 but never got a floor vote. Congress has passed three permitting laws since 2005. Each one rode on a must-pass bill (a measure Congress cannot let fail, like raising the debt limit), most recently the 2023 debt-limit deal. This bill has until Jan. 3, 2027.

PBS NEWSHOUR10 sources

7not newslongform

Anti-hunger group counts 5.2 million people off SNAP since the 2025 law, as states start paying 75% of its admin costs Oct. 1

SNAP enrollment is at its lowest since 2019, and the work requirement now reaches recipients up to age 64.

What the 2023 law's rise to age 54 did: The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a left-leaning research group, estimated about 750,000 adults aged 50 to 54 were newly at risk of losing benefits The Congressional Budget Office projected about 225,000 people would be cut in an average month A 2024 Census Bureau study of nine states found no measurable change in jobs or hours worked at the age cutoff

ContextUSDA says the age-64 work rule took effect when the law was signed on July 4, 2025. Under the earlier rule, which stopped at age 54, people from 55 to 64 were exempt. What changes Thursday, Oct. 1, is who pays. States' share of SNAP's administrative costs, the cost of running the program rather than the food benefits themselves, rises from 50% to 75%. In states where counties run SNAP, such as North Carolina, counties face about $69 million in new costs in the first year. Enrollment averaged 42,126,585 people a month in fiscal 2025. FRAC counted 36,562,128 in May 2026.

CBS NEWS1 source