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[UPDATE] Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, up from 3.4%, as increases spread beyond gasoline

Market odds of a quarter-point Fed rate hike at the Oct. 27–28 meeting jumped to 47% from 22.1% after the report, per Axios.

Consumer prices rose 0.6% from August to September, the biggest monthly gain in five months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday, Oct. 14. Prices were 3.7% higher than a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August. Forecasters had expected 3.6%. The spread. Gasoline jumped 9.1% in the month and drove more than half the rise. Prices also climbed for services, clothing, airfares and medical care. Core inflation (everything but food and energy, the measure of the underlying trend) rose to 2.6% a year, from 2.4% in August, with a 0.3% monthly gain. The White House. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said there was "a whole bunch of good news in the report." He called the energy surge "temporary" and pointed to flat food prices and a 1.2% drop in prescription drug prices. (TS: core prices, which leave out energy, ran at a 3.4% annual pace over three months, per Axios) What next. The Federal Reserve meets Oct. 27–28. Traders now put the odds of a quarter-point rate hike (the Fed raising its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage point to slow price growth) at 47%, up from 22.1% before the report, per Axios. This was the last inflation report before the Nov. 3 midterm elections.

Before the Oct. 14 release, forecasters expected September inflation to climb to 3.6%–3.7% from 3.4%, and NBC News pinned most of that rise on diesel prices, which have risen since the Iran war began Feb. 28.

What these September prices did to fuel bills, bonds and approval:

  • Gasoline cost 34% more than in September 2025, per The Guardian and Stateline. Fuel oil cost 74% more, per The Guardian; Stateline put the rise at 72%.
  • The two-year Treasury yield (the interest rate on two-year federal debt) rose 12 basis points, or 0.12 percentage point, after the report, per Axios.
  • Only 17% of U.S. adults approve of Trump's handling of the cost of living, per an AP-NORC poll.