Political Guyentist
Political Guyentist

Tuesday

James Comey speaks into a microphone while gesturing with one hand, wearing a dark suit and red tie.
Washington Examiner
1uscontestedCases against critics

Justice Department charges James Comey a third time, alleging he leaked national defense information to the New York Times in 2016

The 10-year legal deadline ran out Oct. 5, and Comey's lawyers say a charge filed without a grand jury could not beat it.

What became of the first two Comey cases: Virginia false-statement and obstruction case — dismissed Nov. 24, 2025, after Judge Cameron McGowan Currie found prosecutor Lindsey Halligan was unlawfully appointed; DOJ's appeal to the Fourth Circuit is pending North Carolina "seashells" threat case — still pending before Judge Louise Flanagan, with four defense motions unresolved, including claims of protected speech and vindictive prosecution

ContextMost federal crimes carry a five-year time limit. Espionage Act charges get 10 years under a 1950 law, and that law speaks only of an indictment, which "may be found" within the 10 years. An indictment is a charge voted by a grand jury. An information is signed by a prosecutor alone. Federal rules require an indictment for any felony unless the defendant waives that right in open court. Without a waiver, there can be no plea or trial on an information. The general five-year law names both kinds of charge. Appeals courts, including the 7th Circuit in 1998 and the 11th Circuit in 2025, have read it to mean a filed information stops the clock even without a waiver. The 1950 espionage law does not mention an information.

WASHINGTON EXAMINER10 sources

2usUpdatecontestedMail-ballot rules

9th Circuit panel dismisses, 2-1, DOJ's emergency appeal to make California set aside mail ballots of 20,000-plus listed voters

The case goes back to U.S. District Judge David Carter, who holds a hearing Tuesday, Oct. 27, a week before the Nov. 3 election.

- Oct. 15 — DOJ ordered California to check the citizenship of an undisclosed list of mail voters and hold their ballots. It then sued California and Los Angeles County to keep about 20,000 ballots uncounted. - Oct. 16–17 — DOJ warned that officials who count the flagged ballots risk prosecution as "aiders and abettors." Trump said Los Angeles officials "will all go to jail." - Oct. 19 — DOJ charged 28 green-card holders from the list with voting crimes and arrested 11. A charge is not a conviction. - Oct. 23–25 — DOJ gave 18-plus counties 48 hours to help check citizenship and asked for Social Security numbers. At the 9th Circuit, Bennett said, "I don't see how we have jurisdiction."

ContextJudge Sanchez also wrote a concurring opinion (a separate opinion that agrees with the ruling). In it, he said DOJ "asks the federal court to dictate to a state legislature a matter squarely within the state's traditional domain... inviting disorder and confusion for voters and election officials alike." The panel ruled only on its power to hear the appeal. It did not decide whether anyone on the 20,000-plus list is a noncitizen. Carter takes up that question one week before the Nov. 3 election.

CBS NEWS10 sources

3not newslongform

Social Security's retirement fund is now less than six years from running out, which would cut benefits 22% in late 2032

Medicare's hospital fund would run dry about six months later, cutting hospital spending 11%.

Senate backing for Social Security bills (60 votes needed to advance): Social Security Expansion Act, from Bernie Sanders (Sen-I Vermont): 11 senators signed on Social Security 2100 Act, from Richard Blumenthal (Sen-D Connecticut): launched with 5 senators Bipartisan PROMISE Act: 8 senators, and it only sets up a process to write a plan

ContextThe 2026 trustees report says the retirement fund will run out in the fourth quarter of 2032. That is one quarter earlier than last year's report. Paying full benefits through 2100 would mean raising the combined payroll tax now, from 12.4% to 16.65%. For a worker earning $50,000, that is $1,062.50 more a year from the worker and $1,062.50 more from the employer.

CRFB1 source

Tuesday · The daily brief

Oct 272026

3 leads40 briefs21 min

BoardScroll

Executive summary3 stories

News news2

  1. Justice Department charges James Comey a third time, alleging he leaked national defense information to the New York Times in 2016The 10-year legal deadline ran out Oct. 5, and Comey's lawyers say a charge filed without a grand jury could not beat it.
  2. 9th Circuit panel dismisses, 2-1, DOJ's emergency appeal to make California set aside mail ballots of 20,000-plus listed votersThe case goes back to U.S. District Judge David Carter, who holds a hearing Tuesday, Oct. 27, a week before the Nov. 3 election.

Not news news1

  1. Social Security's retirement fund is now less than six years from running out, which would cut benefits 22% in late 2032Medicare's hospital fund would run dry about six months later, cutting hospital spending 11%.

News news2 stories

WASHINGTON EXAMINERCases against critics

Justice Department charges James Comey a third time, alleging he leaked national defense information to the New York Times in 2016

The 10-year legal deadline ran out Oct. 5, and Comey's lawyers say a charge filed without a grand jury could not beat it.

A two-count, three-page filing was unsealed Monday, Oct. 26, in U.S. District Court in Washington, at the defense's request. Prosecutors had filed it under seal Oct. 5. It accuses former FBI Director James Comey of transmitting national defense information (secrets covered by the Espionage Act) and conspiring to do so on Oct. 5, 2016, while he ran the FBI. The alleged leak fed a New York Times story by reporter Charlie Savage about Yahoo helping U.S. email surveillance. It is the third federal criminal case the Trump administration has brought against Comey.

The evidence. Special Assistant U.S. Attorney Dustin Farahnak writes that Comey "sought to correct misinformation which had appeared in the press by way of Reuters the day before," meaning a Reuters report on Yahoo published Oct. 4, 2016. He says investigators found that Comey "directed staff to speak to Mr. Savage about specific accuracy concerns related to the Reuters article, and thereby illegally transferred classified information." The filing names neither the information nor the staff.

The filing. The department used a criminal information (a charge signed by a prosecutor alone, with no grand jury vote) "to toll the statute of limitations," which stops the legal clock. It calls this "an ongoing criminal investigation." Comey's lawyers have asked the judge to throw the case out, arguing the 10-year limit could only be met with an indictment.

The defense. Comey says he is innocent and calls the case "an appalling abuse of the Department of Justice." His lawyer, Patrick Fitzgerald, says two prosecution teams in Trump's first term examined the same leak, and "both times the Government determined that no charges should be brought against anyone."

Still open. Judge Trevor McFadden held an emergency closed-door hearing Friday, Oct. 9, and has unsealed the case, but he has not ruled on dismissal.

What became of the first two Comey casesVirginia false-statement and obstruction case — dismissed Nov. 24, 2025, after Judge Cameron McGowan Currie found prosecutor…2 details
  • Virginia false-statement and obstruction case — dismissed Nov. 24, 2025, after Judge Cameron McGowan Currie found prosecutor Lindsey Halligan was unlawfully appointed; DOJ's appeal to the Fourth Circuit is pending
  • North Carolina "seashells" threat case — still pending before Judge Louise Flanagan, with four defense motions unresolved, including claims of protected speech and vindictive prosecution

Red take

Charges that an FBI director leaked secrets deserve a trial, not a timeout. Prosecutor Dustin Farahnak says investigators found James Comey "directed staff to speak to Mr. Savage," the Times reporter, on Oct. 5, 2016. The filing beat the 10-year deadline on its last day. If Judge Trevor McFadden throws it out as late, the leak goes untried, and the next official learns that running out the clock works.

Blue take

The third case against James Comey is a placeholder built to stop a clock. It runs three pages, with no grand jury vote and no named secret, filed as the 10-year deadline ran out Oct. 5. Two prosecution teams in Trump's first term found "no charges should be brought against anyone," says Comey's lawyer Patrick Fitzgerald. If Judge Trevor McFadden lets it stand, one prosecutor's signature can keep anyone accused indefinitely.

Ongoing6 earlier updates12 days

This story has run 7 times over 12 days, starting Oct 15.

  1. Justice Department orders California to check citizenship of an undisclosed list of mail voters and hold their ballots by noon Thursday, Oct. 15
  2. UpdateJustice Department sues California and Los Angeles County to hold uncounted the mail ballots of about 20,000 people it calls likely noncitizens
  3. UpdateDOJ warns California officials who count suspected noncitizens' ballots they risk federal prosecution
  4. UpdateTrump says Los Angeles election officials 'will all go to jail' if they count the mail ballots of 20,000 people DHS flagged as likely noncitizens
  5. UpdateJustice Department gives California counties 48 hours to help check the citizenship of roughly 20,000 listed voters and asks them to set aside those mail ballots
  6. Update9th Circuit panel of two Trump appointees and one Biden appointee doubts it can order California to set aside mail ballots of about 20,000 people DOJ calls likely noncitizens
  7. Update9th Circuit panel dismisses, 2-1, DOJ's emergency appeal to make California set aside mail ballots of 20,000-plus listed voters — this issue
CBS NEWSUpdateMail-ballot rules

9th Circuit panel dismisses, 2-1, DOJ's emergency appeal to make California set aside mail ballots of 20,000-plus listed voters

The case goes back to U.S. District Judge David Carter, who holds a hearing Tuesday, Oct. 27, a week before the Nov. 3 election.

The ruling. A divided panel of the 9th Circuit (the federal appeals court over California) on Monday, Oct. 26, threw out the Justice Department's emergency appeal. DOJ wanted the court to make California set aside mail ballots tied to more than 20,000 registered voters it calls likely noncitizens.

The reason. The majority said it had no power to act because DOJ never gave the trial judge a fair chance to rule. DOJ's noon deadline left Carter about 15 hours, three of them business hours, and DOJ then treated his silence as a denial.

The judges. Mark Bennett, a Trump appointee, and Gabriel Sanchez, a Biden appointee, formed the majority. Patrick Bumatay, a Trump appointee, dissented. Bennett wrote separately that he would also reject DOJ's request on its merits.

"The United States's claimed emergency, at least in part, is a self-constructed one."unsigned majority opinion

What next. Carter hears DOJ's request to set aside the ballots on Tuesday, Oct. 27. Either side can appeal whatever he decides.

Catch upwhat happened before · 6 earlier issues
  • Oct. 15 — DOJ ordered California to check the citizenship of an undisclosed list of mail voters and hold their ballots. It then sued California and Los Angeles County to keep about 20,000 ballots uncounted.
  • Oct. 16–17 — DOJ warned that officials who count the flagged ballots risk prosecution as "aiders and abettors." Trump said Los Angeles officials "will all go to jail."
  • Oct. 19 — DOJ charged 28 green-card holders from the list with voting crimes and arrested 11. A charge is not a conviction.
  • Oct. 23–25 — DOJ gave 18-plus counties 48 hours to help check citizenship and asked for Social Security numbers. At the 9th Circuit, Bennett said, "I don't see how we have jurisdiction."
5 earlier issues

Red take

U.S. District Judge David Carter should order California on Tuesday to set the flagged mail ballots aside, because the Justice Department has already charged 28 green-card holders from its list of more than 20,000 with voting crimes. Setting a ballot aside throws nothing away; it buys time to check whether the voter is a citizen. Count first, and any noncitizen ballot in that pile is tallied before anyone looks.

Blue take

Los Angeles County checked 200 records on the Justice Department's list and found 112 tied to canceled or inactive registrations, which is no basis for freezing ballots a week before Nov. 3. DOJ has not said how many of its 20,000-plus names mailed a ballot, and Mark Bennett, a Trump appointee on the appeals panel, would reject the request on its merits. Judge Carter, the trial judge, should refuse, or ballots sit uncounted on DOJ's word alone.

Quick bites18

Courts2 bites

  1. Judge rules DOJ illegally fired Maurene Comey, rejecting claim presidents can fire prosecutors at will

    PBS NEWSHOURCases against critics

    U.S. District Judge Jesse Furman ordered her reinstated retroactively, with back pay only through Dec. 20, 2025, when she took a job in private practice.

    • Furman found the July 2025 firing violated the 1978 Civil Service Reform Act, the separation of powers and her due process rights.
    • Comey won 4 of her 10 claims; 5 were rejected or dismissed, and her First Amendment claim is still pending.
    • DOJ says then-Attorney General Pam Bondi directed the firing, and it will appeal "in due course."

  2. Six news consumers sue Trump to lift White House bans on CNN, Politico and MS NOW

    WASHINGTON EXAMINERWhite House press ban

    The Knight First Amendment Institute and Yale's media freedom clinic filed the suit in federal court in Manhattan. They argue the bans violate the public's right to receive information, and they seek an injunction, not damages. Trump banned the three outlets on Sept. 18, calling their reporting "fake news." Judge Timothy Kelly paused the bans on Oct. 13 in the outlets' own suit, which is still going.

    Who is suing whomPlaintiffs: a human rights advocate, a media watchdog, a historian, a civics teacher, a legal journalist and a student journalist.2 details
    • Plaintiffs: a human rights advocate, a media watchdog, a historian, a civics teacher, a legal journalist and a student journalist.
    • Defendants: Trump, chief of staff Susie Wiles, communications director Steven Cheung and Secret Service Director Sean Curran (per the Washington Examiner).
The Iran war2 bites

  1. Israel's military chief resisted Netanyahu's push for an Iran strike before the Oct. 27 vote, officials say

    THE NEW YORK TIMESUpdateIran war

    Israel's army chief resisted an open strike, fearing it could restart the war, officials told the Times. After that, Netanyahu sought a lesser action short of a strike, they said. What that action was has not been made public. His office denies it. So does Defense Minister Israel Katz. Opposition leader Avigdor Lieberman asked the attorney general to open a criminal treason probe, PBS NewsHour reports.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 5 earlier issues
    • Oct. 13 — Axios, citing four sources, reported Netanyahu and Trump had discussed a new joint strike on Iran before both countries' elections; the White House called that false.
    • Oct. 18 — Trump endorsed Netanyahu, writing that if Israel picked "anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so."
    • Oct. 20 — Vice President JD Vance declined to endorse Netanyahu.
    • Oct. 22–23 — NYT and ABC reported U.S.-Israeli plans for strikes soon after the Nov. 3 midterms, including petrochemical plants and nuclear sites such as Pickaxe Mountain; the White House said there would be no attack before the midterms.
    4 earlier issues
    On the recordDefense Minister Israel Katz on X: "no intention by Israel of initiating an attack on Iran before the elections in Israel."3 details
    • Defense Minister Israel Katz on X: "no intention by Israel of initiating an attack on Iran before the elections in Israel."
    • Opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot on X: "Netanyahu, my eyes are on you."
    • Netanyahu's office called a similar Channel 12 report "fake news."
    Ongoing5

    This story has run 6 times over 13 days, starting Oct 14.

    1. Netanyahu pressed Trump on several calls for a new joint strike on Iran, Axios reports
    2. UpdateTrump endorses Netanyahu, saying the US will hit Iran itself if Israelis pick anyone else
    3. UpdateVance says he won't endorse Netanyahu in Israel's Oct. 27 election, a day after Trump did
    4. UpdateU.S. and Israel have drawn up plans for possible new strikes on Iran after the Nov. 3 midterms, NYT reports
    5. UpdateTwo Israeli sources tell ABC that joint strikes on Iran will almost certainly come soon after the Nov. 3 midterms
    6. UpdateIsrael's military chief resisted Netanyahu's push for an Iran strike before the Oct. 27 vote, officials say — this issue

  2. Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani envoys meet Iran's security chiefs in Tehran to push for a U.S.-Iran deal

    THE WASHINGTON POSTIran war

    The Post reports the visit is part of a push to end the U.S. war with Iran, and that Qatari mediators who work with Washington came a day earlier. A ceasefire has held off full-scale fighting since April 8, but no deal has ended the war. Israeli and U.S. leaders have sharpened their threats ahead of elections in both countries, the AP reports.

    Who went and what they discussedEnvoys: Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Turkish spy chief Ibrahim…3 details
    • Envoys: Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Turkish spy chief Ibrahim Kalin (PBS NewsHour).
    • The war in Yemen and Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia were also on the agenda, two regional officials told the AP.
    • Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said the talks would "undoubtedly address the most pressing threats to regional security."
    Ongoing27

    This story has run 28 times over 48 days, starting Sep 9.

    1. Houthi missiles and drones hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and halting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery
    2. UpdateBrent oil exceeds $100 a barrel; US diesel reaches $5.94 a gallon
    3. Houthis capture Yemen's Mokha from Saudi-backed forces 46 miles from Bab el-Mandeb
    4. UpdateHouthi forces captured Mokha and Perim island in the 28-kilometer Bab el-Mandeb strait.
    5. UpdateA day after the Bab el-Mandeb capture, maritime monitors have recorded no new transit halts
    6. UpdateSaudi Arabia shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline, oil rises more than $3 with 4% of supply at risk
    7. UpdateHouthis seize two more Red Sea islands as Saudi pipeline faces 3-to-5-week outage
    8. UpdateSaudi Arabia suspends loadings at its last open oil terminal; September cargoes cancelled
    9. Attacks on Saudi export pipeline push WTI crude to $107.02 a barrel, a 30-day high
    10. UpdateHouthi missiles hit Riyadh, burning a fuel depot near King Khalid airport
    11. UpdateSaudi Arabia says it intercepted a Houthi missile aimed at Riyadh
    12. UpdateTrump declined a prepared U.S. air campaign against the Houthis, giving Saudi Arabia intelligence and targeting data instead
    13. UpdateSaudi Arabia tested its shut east-west pipeline for a restart as oil fell below $98
    14. Chris Murphy (Sen-D Connecticut) says Pentagon is hiding Iran war damage and a deal isn't imminent
    15. UpdateStrike on Riyadh airport kills 12, including an American; Trump says the U.S. "may" join Saudi strikes on the Houthis
    16. UpdateRiyadh airport hit again Sunday, Oct. 11, killing one; Saturday's strike toll rises to at least 13, including an American
    17. UpdateSaudi Arabia investigates why its air defenses failed to stop the Houthi strike that killed at least 13 at Riyadh's airport
    18. UpdateSaudi-led coalition bombs Houthi oil facilities and a fuel depot in Yemen after a Riyadh airport strike killed at least 13
    19. Houthi strike damages 3 floors of Aramco's Dhahran headquarters, including executive offices; no casualties
    20. Brent crude touches $110 a barrel, its first time there since May 20, after Saudi-led forces intercept missiles aimed at energy hubs
    21. Iran is giving the Houthis targeting and intelligence help for their strikes on Saudi Arabia, WSJ reports
    22. Judge jails ex-OpenAI engineer accused of bugging executives; prosecutors say Saudi official flew his family out
    23. UpdateBrent crude tops $111 a barrel, its highest since May, after Iran and the Houthis claim attacks on Gulf ships and Saudi oil sites
    24. UpdateState Department orders non-emergency U.S. staff and families out of Saudi Arabia after Houthi attacks on airports and oil sites
    25. Brent crude hits $116-117 a barrel Friday, Oct. 23, on fears the Iran war escalates again
    26. UpdateU.S. cuts staff at embassies in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and the UAE after intelligence chief says Iranian plots to kill Americans are at 'advanced stages'
    27. UpdateTrump says it's 'decision time' on Iran: a deal, or resumed attacks to 'finish it off'
    28. Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani envoys meet Iran's security chiefs in Tehran to push for a U.S.-Iran deal — this issue
Also tonight6 bites

  1. House Judiciary Democrats' 53-page report asks DOJ for a special counsel on Trump's Epstein ties

    NBC NEWSEpstein files

    The report says 11 women have tied Trump to Epstein's abuse, five of whom directly accuse him of rape or sexual assault; White House spokeswoman Lauren Bis called the allegations untrue.

    What the report claims and the White House answerThe report says Trump lied about kicking Epstein out of Mar-a-Lago, citing evidence it says is "still hiding behind redactions in…3 details
    • The report says Trump lied about kicking Epstein out of Mar-a-Lago, citing evidence it says is "still hiding behind redactions in DOJ vaults."
    • The report includes new details from a former Miss Switzerland, per NBC News.
    • Bis: "The President kicked Jeffrey Epstein out of his club at Mar-a-Lago because he was a creep."

  2. Fed expected to hold rates at 3.75%-4% Wednesday, Oct. 28, a week before midterms, despite 3.7% inflation

    CBS NEWSInflation and rates

    Traders see an 88% chance the Fed holds rates Wednesday, Oct. 28, per CME FedWatch. The same futures pricing puts the odds of a December hike at 71%. Gasoline pushed September consumer price inflation to 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The Fed aims for 2% inflation on a different price index.

    Rate moves and electionsA Washington Post count finds the Fed has changed rates in the week before an election only 2 times in 32 years.2 details
    • A Washington Post count finds the Fed has changed rates in the week before an election only 2 times in 32 years.
    • WSJ's Nick Timiraos: "The Fed has raised rates right before elections, but not as a surprise."
    Ongoing15

    This story has run 16 times over 46 days, starting Sep 11.

    1. August inflation holds at 3.4% annually; gasoline drives monthly increase
    2. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the year, lifting September Fed rate hike odds above 80%
    3. Trump threatens trade cutoff with some nations unless Fed lowers rates despite 3.4% inflation
    4. Update10-year Treasury yield hit 5.014% Monday, Sept. 14, first time since October 2023
    5. Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark rate a quarter point on Wednesday, Sept. 16, its first hike in three years.
    6. UpdateFed raises its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since July 2023
    7. UpdateChicago Fed's Goolsbee says getting inflation to 2% will be 'painful' and require pushing employment below target
    8. Fed Governor Michael Barr says more rate increases are likely to counter inflation
    9. UpdateAugust PCE inflation was 3.4%, below the 3.7% forecast, cutting October Fed hike odds to 35% from 45%
    10. Markets pull back bets on October Fed and ECB rate hikes after weak US jobs data
    11. UpdateFed minutes show most officials expect another rate hike by year end
    12. Trump sets a closed White House hearing for Nov. 5 on whether he has cause to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook
    13. UpdateConsumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, up from 3.4%, as increases spread beyond gasoline
    14. UpdateProducer prices rose 6.3% in the year to September, the most since December 2022, with fuel half the gain
    15. UpdateFed Chair Kevin Warsh declines to preview Oct. 27-28 meeting; rate hike odds fall to 28%
    16. Fed expected to hold rates at 3.75%-4% Wednesday, Oct. 28, a week before midterms, despite 3.7% inflation — this issue

  3. Democrats and Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina) warn 6 banks and 4 ports not to handle Russian diesel

    POLITICORussia diesel deal

    Democrats in line for committee gavels and the retiring Tillis wrote to JPMorgan, BofA, Citi, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and the Houston, Beaumont, Corpus Christi and New York/New Jersey ports. On Oct. 9, Trump said Vladimir Putin had agreed to release Russian diesel. Treasury then licensed its import into the U.S. through April 7, 2027. Opponents say the deal breaks the 2022 ban on Russian fuel imports. Treasury says it is legal.

    The diesel at stakeThe first Russian diesel tanker to the U.S. since 2022 carried 40,000 tons, under two hours of U.S. consumption (TIME).2 details
    • The first Russian diesel tanker to the U.S. since 2022 carried 40,000 tons, under two hours of U.S. consumption (TIME).
    • U.S. diesel reached $6.53 a gallon in September (TIME); the federal average was $6.28 on Oct. 19 (EIA).

  4. Illinois man, 37, charged with mailing four salt-filled 'HA HA' letters to members of Congress

    THE HILL

    Matthew Unglesbee faces two charges: false information and hoaxes, and mailing threatening communications. He allegedly told the FBI he acted after hearing about earlier suspicious mailings. He put his own name and return address on the envelopes.

  5. Two Catholic bishops apologize, saying the White House used their private Oval Office prayer with Trump for politics

    PBS NEWSHOUR

    Milwaukee Archbishop Jeffrey Grob says the bishops never consented to the release of the photos and video. The footage drew more than 1.8 million views on X, per TIME. The White House did not say whether it had consent.

    How the meeting happenedGrob says the Heritage Foundation arranged the meeting (TIME, The Guardian).3 details
    • Grob says the Heritage Foundation arranged the meeting (TIME, The Guardian).
    • The bishops sat through a 90-minute policy meeting before being taken into the Oval Office (BBC, The Guardian).
    • Des Moines Bishop William Joensen: "I wish I had been more shrewd and less simple, like those who exploited our meeting for partisan political purposes."

  6. Egypt's parliament approves military support to defend Saudi Arabia as Houthis fire a missile at Riyadh's airport

    THE NEW YORK TIMESHouthis and the Saudis

    Egypt's parliament voted on Monday, Oct. 26, to let President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi give Saudi Arabia military support if Riyadh asks, Reuters and the AP report. Egyptian officials say any help would be defensive only. El-Sisi said last week that Egyptian forces would stay inside Saudi borders and not strike the Houthis in Yemen, the Times reports, citing state media. The government gave no details, and a regional official told the AP that Egypt would not send ground troops.

    The Houthis said they fired a ballistic missile at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh on Monday, Oct. 26. Saudi forces said they intercepted it and then struck Houthi missile sites, but neither side's account has been independently confirmed.

Elections8 bites

  1. Daniel J. Sullivan, the second Sullivan on Alaska's ballot, calls DOJ's certification suit a 'gross misuse'

    REASONUpdate

    The suit, filed Thursday, Oct. 22, asks a federal court to block certification if Dan Sullivan (Sen-R Alaska) loses. It says a namesake on the ballot, Daniel J. Sullivan, ran to mislead the senator's voters. Certifying a result swayed by that confusion would breach the National Voter Registration Act, DOJ argues. That 1993 law mainly governs voter registration, but one of its stated purposes is "to protect the integrity of the electoral process." On Monday, Oct. 26, the namesake answered. The retired teacher from Petersburg called the suit "a gross misuse of the Justice Department" in an email to the Alaska Beacon. He said the state Supreme Court had already "litigated and resolved" his place on the ballot. The primary, he wrote, "showed there was little if any confusion."

    Who else weighed inAdam Schiff (Sen-D California): DOJ lacks standing because "it's not the federal government's business to run Alaskan elections."2 details
    • Adam Schiff (Sen-D California): DOJ lacks standing because "it's not the federal government's business to run Alaskan elections."
    • Rob Sand, Iowa's Democratic nominee for governor, broke with his party: "Both parties are doing it and neither party should be doing it."
    Ongoing4

    This story has run 5 times over 10 days, starting Oct 17.

    1. Sullivan breaks with Trump on Russian diesel deal in final toss-up Alaska Senate debate with Peltola
    2. UpdateJustice Department sues to block Alaska's Senate certification if Sen. Dan Sullivan loses, citing a second candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan
    3. UpdatePeltola's campaign and Senate Democrats file to defeat DOJ suit seeking to block Alaska's Senate certification if Sen. Sullivan loses
    4. UpdateBlanche says DOJ's Alaska suit is 'not saying don't certify'; the complaint asks a court to block certification if Sen. Dan Sullivan loses
    5. UpdateDaniel J. Sullivan, the second Sullivan on Alaska's ballot, calls DOJ's certification suit a 'gross misuse' — this issue

  2. Trump offers $1 million to anyone whose voter fraud tip leads to an arrest and conviction

    NBC NEWS

    Trump named no funding source for the payments, and the White House offered no details on who would pay or how.

    • Heritage Foundation's voter fraud tracker lists 1,619 proven cases from 1982 through 2025. Federal general elections from 1982 to 2024 drew about 2.26 billion ballots, per University of Florida Election Lab turnout data.
    • Trump and Vance announced a separate $25 million fraud-tip fund on Tuesday, Oct. 20; its rules cap rewards at $30,000 and cover health care and benefits fraud, per the Justice Department.
    • Trump has also promised every adult citizen a $5,000 "Trump Dividend" if Republicans keep Congress, a pledge he made Sept. 9 at the GOP's Dallas convention (AP).

  3. Israel votes Tuesday, Oct. 27, and an analyst calls an indecisive result the most likely outcome

    TIMEUpdate

    Israelis vote today, Tuesday, Oct. 27. "It looks like an indecisive outcome is the most likely outcome," Yohanan Plesner of the Israel Democracy Institute told CBS News. Netanyahu closed his campaign on Sunday, Oct. 25, by sharing an activist's post with an AI image of a nuclear blast over Tel Aviv, the Times of Israel reports. Opposition leaders accused him of trying to frighten voters. Republicans Overseas Israel told the BBC that about 500,000 Israelis with U.S. passports can vote in both countries' elections. That is the group's own figure. A federal voting office estimated 147,000 voting-age Americans in Israel in 2024.

    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times, starting Oct 26.

    1. Israel votes Tuesday, Oct. 27, with polls showing Netanyahu's coalition and the opposition nearly tied and Eisenkot's party often first
    2. UpdateIsrael votes Tuesday, Oct. 27, and an analyst calls an indecisive result the most likely outcome — this issue

  4. Trump says Brazil's vote looked 'rigged'; Flávio Bolsonaro is dropping his bid to annul Lula's 4.4 million-vote win, campaign says

    PBS NEWSHOURUpdateBrazil election

    Trump said Monday, Oct. 26, that Lula's win "looked like another rigged election," Politico reports. He cited no evidence and added, "I am not running Brazil, I'm running the USA." The same day, a campaign member told Bloomberg that Flávio Bolsonaro is dropping his bid to annul the vote. He will accuse Lula of abuse of power instead. He had not dropped it publicly by that night, the Guardian reports.

    The bid targets Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin's Election Day order keeping polls open two extra hours nationwide. Bolsonaro said it changed the rules, though his own campaign had sought extensions in five flooded states. Folha, G1 and BBC Brasil counted 33,866 to 35,521 votes in those two hours, against Lula's 4.4 million-vote margin.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 5 earlier issues
    • Oct. 4 — Flávio Bolsonaro won Brazil's first round, 47.03% to 45.16%, per the electoral court (TSE), though polls had shown Lula slightly ahead. That forced an Oct. 25 runoff.
    • Oct. 5 — A White House adviser told The Washington Post that Trump's silence during the race was a deliberate strategy.
    • Oct. 25 — Lula came back to win the runoff and a fourth term, ending a string of right-wing wins in Latin America.
    4 earlier issues
    Where it standsLula won the runoff with 51.79% of the vote, per the electoral court (TSE).3 details
    • Lula won the runoff with 51.79% of the vote, per the electoral court (TSE).
    • Lula takes office for his fourth term on Jan. 5, 2027.
    • A Brazilian official told Politico: 'So what if Trump doesn't recognize? ... We are not a Venezuela.'
    Ongoing5

    This story has run 6 times over 23 days, starting Oct 4.

    1. Polls show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a close race before Brazil's first-round vote Sunday, Oct. 4
    2. UpdateFlávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in Brazil's first-round presidential vote count; Oct. 25 runoff likely
    3. UpdateFlávio Bolsonaro finishes first over Lula (President, Brazil), forcing an Oct. 25 runoff
    4. Trump officials campaign for Flávio Bolsonaro to beat Lula in Brazil's Oct. 25 runoff
    5. UpdateLula overturns first-round deficit to beat Flávio Bolsonaro for record fourth term
    6. UpdateTrump says Brazil's vote looked 'rigged'; Flávio Bolsonaro is dropping his bid to annul Lula's 4.4 million-vote win, campaign says — this issue

  5. DOJ asks Washington to set aside midterm ballots from 400+ people it suspects are noncitizens

    PBS NEWSHOUR

    DOJ says the 400-plus people cast 1,500 votes in past elections; Washington Secretary of State Steve Hobbs is reviewing the request and says he will respond only to demands that follow due process.

    • Washington has 5 million+ registered voters, so 400 is under 0.01% of the rolls.
    • Washington has received about 60 DOJ subpoenas for voter information since last month.
    • Hobbs: "We see what's happening in California and don't want Washingtonians to be harassed."

  6. US and Venezuela map a path to a new presidential election through a vacancy declaration, Bloomberg says

    BLOOMBERGUpdate

    The vote would start with a formal declaration that the presidency is vacant. Venezuela's constitution requires a new election within 30 days when the presidency falls permanently vacant in the first four years of a term. Maduro's term began in January 2025. Bloomberg says the office has technically been empty since U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro in January. Acting President Delcy Rodríguez's government told Machado to 'repent.'

    U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro in January, leaving Delcy Rodríguez as acting president. On Sunday, Oct. 25, Nobel laureate María Corina Machado returned to Caracas from exile and demanded a presidential election.

    Where the sides standMachado wants presidential elections held by July 2027, per TIME.3 details
    • Machado wants presidential elections held by July 2027, per TIME.
    • Rodríguez's government told Machado to drop the 'spectacle' of her return.
    • Only Bloomberg has reported the vacancy plan; no other outlet has confirmed it.

  7. Trump's 2024 Arab American ally Bishara Bahbah calls his 'jihadist' attacks on El-Sayed 'racist'

    THE GUARDIANUpdate

    At a rally in Port Huron on Sunday, Oct. 25, Trump called Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic Senate nominee, a "jihadist." He brought out David Beamer, the father of Flight 93 passenger Todd Beamer. Bishara Bahbah, a founder of Arab Americans for Trump, said the remarks "are crossing a red line." El-Sayed hit back that day at a Grand Rapids rally with Bernie Sanders (Sen-I Vermont).

    On the recordTrump: "They will open the floodgates and invite hordes of jihadis to our shores... until you cannot even have a Christmas."4 details
    • Trump: "They will open the floodgates and invite hordes of jihadis to our shores... until you cannot even have a Christmas."
    • Bahbah: "The president's statements are out of line. They are crossing a red line. They are racist."
    • El-Sayed: "I'll be Senator Mohamed to you, bro."
    • Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee, on NBC's Meet the Press that morning: "I've never called him a terrorist."

  8. Trump-appointed judge dismisses DOJ suit demanding Utah's full voter list with personal data

    FOX NEWSVoter-roll checks

    U.S. District Judge David Barlow, appointed by Trump in 2019, dismissed the suit with prejudice on Friday, Oct. 23. He rejected DOJ's reading of the Civil Rights Act of 1960 as grounds to force Utah's Republican lieutenant governor to hand over the data.

    • Barlow wrote that judges have "no warrant to elevate vague invocations of statutory purpose over the words Congress chose."
    • DOJ is 0-27 in district court on its voter-roll suits against states, per Democracy Docket; three more (Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho) are unresolved.
    • DOJ says it will appeal.

Elections22 races

The midterms · 7 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Oct 26, 9:21 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 92%, Kalshi 90%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 66%, Kalshi 65%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 90.45–91.50%
92%90%chance Democrats take it · 1.0pp apart · no clear move — one venue moved, the other did not
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 92% and Kalshi 90%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 64.5–65.5%
66%65%chance Democrats take it · 1.0pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 66% and Kalshi 65%.

3 closest races

  • wIowa SenateAshley Hinson 58.0%▲0.6Josh Turek 41.8%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Oct 26, 9:21 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 58.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 42.0%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • tMaine SenateTroy Jackson 60.0%▲2.8Susan Collins 40.5%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Oct 26, 9:21 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aaGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 61.5%▲11.0Rick Jackson 37.8%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead after the Republican side lost about twelve points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Oct 26, 9:21 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 62.5%, Kalshi 60.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 38.0%, Kalshi 37.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 12 still in doubt · Oct 26, 9:21 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate8 of 10

  • vAlaska SenateMary Peltola 73.0%▲0.425.8%Sullivan

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Oct 26, 9:21 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 26.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • adGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 95.20%Collins 4.50%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Oct 26, 9:21 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.7pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 95.85%, Kalshi 94.55%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 3.65%, Kalshi 5.35%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.7pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • xMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 67.8%▲1.1Mike Rogers 32.0%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Oct 26, 9:21 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 68.0%, Kalshi 67.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 31.5%, Kalshi 32.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aeNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 72.5%▲0.8Dan Osborn 27.5%

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Oct 26, 9:21 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 71.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • afNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 90.8%▲1.49.5%Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Oct 26, 9:21 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 92.0%, Kalshi 89.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 8.5%, Kalshi 10.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • acNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 96.80%▲0.8Whatley 3.03%

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Oct 26, 9:21 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.7pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 97.05%, Kalshi 96.55%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 2.70%, Kalshi 3.35%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.7pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yOhio SenateSherrod Brown 68.0%▲4.0Jon Husted 32.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Oct 26, 9:21 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 68.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 31.5%, Kalshi 32.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • uTexas SenateJames Talarico 65.5%▲3.2Ken Paxton 34.5%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about three points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Oct 26, 9:21 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 65.5%, Kalshi 65.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 34.5%, Kalshi 34.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors11 of 12

  • ahAlaska governor12.00%87.9%WilsonBegich 0.05%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a clear lead after losing about seven points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Oct 26, 9:21 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 11%, Kalshi 13%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 0.05%, Kalshi 0.05%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • ajArizona governorKatie Hobbs 89.3%10.5%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Oct 26, 9:21 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 89.0%, Kalshi 89.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 10.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • anFlorida governorByron Donalds 80.0%Jolly 20.0%

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Oct 26, 9:21 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • agIowa governorRob Sand 85.0%14.5%Lahn

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after losing about three points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Oct 26, 9:21 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 85.5%, Kalshi 84.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 13.5%, Kalshi 15.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aiMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 92.8%▲0.9James 6.9%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Oct 26, 9:21 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 93.8%, Kalshi 91.8%; John James (R): Polymarket 6.3%, Kalshi 7.6%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • abNevada governorAaron Ford 69.5%▲12.5Joe Lombardo 30.5%

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Aaron Ford (D) faces Joe Lombardo (R).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: the Republican side is down about thirteen points.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Oct 26, 9:21 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 69.5%; Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 30.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • alNew York governorKathy Hochul 94.70%▲0.3Blakeman 5.40%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Oct 26, 9:21 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 95.45%, Kalshi 93.95%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.75%, Kalshi 6.05%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • sOhio governorAmy Acton 82.5%▲8.318.0%Ramaswamy

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about nine points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Oct 26, 9:21 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 82.5%, Kalshi 82.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 17.5%, Kalshi 18.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • amPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 97.25%▲0.2Garrity 2.83%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Oct 26, 9:21 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.9pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 97.7%, Kalshi 96.8%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.40%, Kalshi 3.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.9pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • akTexas governorGreg Abbott 68.2%▲6.031.0%Hinojosa

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead after losing about seven points in four days.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Oct 26, 9:21 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 67.8%, Kalshi 68.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 31.5%, Kalshi 30.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • zWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 79.5%▲0.820.5%Tiffany

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Oct 26, 9:21 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 78.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Oct 26, 9:21 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Not news news1 story

Ongoing4 earlier updates21 days

This story has run 5 times over 21 days, starting Oct 6.

  1. Gross federal debt passes $40 trillion, above CBO's $39.4 trillion forecast for the end of fiscal 2026
  2. UpdateSocial Security raises benefits 3.6% for 2027, its largest yearly increase since 2023
  3. Treasury reports a $1.99 trillion federal deficit for fiscal 2026, the largest since fiscal 2021
  4. UpdateInterest on the federal debt passed $1 trillion in fiscal 2026, a record
  5. Social Security's retirement fund is now less than six years from running out, which would cut benefits 22% in late 2032 — this issue
CRFB

Social Security's retirement fund is now less than six years from running out, which would cut benefits 22% in late 2032

Medicare's hospital fund would run dry about six months later, cutting hospital spending 11%.

The fund. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a Washington group that tracks federal debt, says the retirement trust fund (the account that pays monthly checks to retirees and survivors) crossed the six-years-to-empty line this month. When it runs out in late 2032, the money still coming in would cover only part of what is owed.

The cut. Unless Congress acts, every check would drop 22% from the scheduled amount, and the gap keeps widening. By the end of the century, the cut would need to reach 38%.

The cost. Applied today, a cut that size would cost the average retiree about $500 a month.

Senate backing for Social Security bills (60 votes needed to advance)Social Security Expansion Act, from Bernie Sanders (Sen-I Vermont): 11 senators signed on3 details
  • Social Security Expansion Act, from Bernie Sanders (Sen-I Vermont): 11 senators signed on
  • Social Security 2100 Act, from Richard Blumenthal (Sen-D Connecticut): launched with 5 senators
  • Bipartisan PROMISE Act: 8 senators, and it only sets up a process to write a plan
13 stories that didn't make the cutSeen by the desk, ranked, and not run. The number is where each stood in the day's order.

News

  • 45Pew: 56% of Americans view ICE unfavorably, the worst rating of 12 federal agencies testedA Pew survey of 5,062 adults found 56% view ICE unfavorably and 35% favorably, the worst rating of 12 agencies tested.
  • 46Democratic groups plan tens of thousands of poll monitors; DOJ plans 1,000, its largest program everDemocrats and watchdog groups plan to deploy tens of thousands of poll monitors over fears of federal interference, meeting DOJ's largest-ever monitoring program and Republican-aligned observers.
  • 47Gas under Trump's second term now pricier than under BidenRon Brownstein reports gas prices in Trump's second term now exceed those under Biden.
  • 48Intel memo warns Iran targeting US personnel overseasCBS reports on an intelligence memo warning that Iran is targeting U.S. personnel overseas, and Trump's reaction to it.
  • 50States brace for Medicaid crunchThe Washington Post health brief reports states are bracing for a Medicaid funding crunch.
  • 51RFK Jr.'s ACIP changes leave vaccines in limboThe Guardian reports that RFK Jr.'s changes to the CDC's vaccine advisory committee (ACIP) have left vaccine recommendations in limbo.
  • 52DOJ survey shows 25% drop in violent crime victimizationCBS reports a DOJ victimization survey showing a 25% drop in violent crime victimization in 2025.
  • 53FTC and 20 states sue Dollar General over overchargingThe Guardian reports the FTC and 20 states have sued Dollar General over overcharging customers.
  • 57Migration Policy Institute counts about 980,000 deportations in Trump's first 18 months, a pace of 660,000 a year against his 1 million goalMost still start at the border (69%), but deportations after arrests inside the country rose from 8,000 a month early in the term to 19,000 a month in May–July 2026.

Election related

  • 49House GOP deploys staff to monitor midterms and prep legal fightsFox News reports House Republicans are deploying staff to monitor midterm voting and prepare for post-election legal fights.
  • 54AP: Trump failed to stop inflation, Republicans may pay priceAn AP analysis argues Trump promised to stop inflation but has not, and Republicans may pay for it in the midterms.
  • 55Early voting data in Texas and other statesA social post shares early voting data from Texas and other states.
  • 56Texas Republicans break with Paxton in Senate raceRon Brownstein reports some Texas Republicans are breaking with Ken Paxton in the Senate race.

More on the Elections page