Political Guyentist
Political Guyentist

Thursday

A torn white divider separates a gray-haired man in a suit from Peltola, who wears pale glasses and a dark shirt.
Fox News
1usUpdatecontestedAlaska Senate race

New York Times reports Peltola's campaign helped recruit the second Dan Sullivan; Trump calls for prosecution and DOJ seeks fast discovery

Peltola's campaign and Senate Democrats' campaign arm deny it; the Times' key source, fired campaign manager Elisa Rios, later tried to retract her interviews.

- Oct. 15 — Sullivan and Peltola met in their final debate in a toss-up race; Sullivan broke with Trump on a Russian diesel deal. - Oct. 22 — DOJ sued to block certification if Sullivan loses, citing confusion with a second candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan. Trump said Oct. 23: "I'm the one that said do it." - Oct. 23 — Peltola's campaign and the DSCC moved to join the suit and have it dismissed. - Oct. 25 — Attorney General Todd Blanche said on CBS that the suit is "not saying, 'don't certify.'" - Oct. 26 — Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired teacher, called the suit a "gross misuse" and said the Alaska Supreme Court settled his ballot place. That night, Alaska's Republican-led state government also asked the judge to dismiss the suit.

ContextBallot-stacking is generally legal; a federal conspiracy-against-rights charge (18 U.S.C. § 241) requires an agreement plus specific intent to interfere with a voting right. Sullivan's term ends at noon Jan. 3, 2027, disputed count or not; Minnesota's seat sat empty from Jan. 3 to July 7, 2009, before Al Franken was seated. On Polymarket, a betting market on real-world events, Peltola shares traded at 70 cents at 10:18 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, an implied 70% chance she wins.

FOX NEWS12 sources

2usUpdate

Fed holds its rate at 3.75%–4% in a 10-2 vote; Cook and Hammack dissent for a hike

Chair Kevin Warsh also said the Fed will vote on rates less often: seven times in 2027 and six in 2028, down from eight a year since 1981.

- Sept. 16 — The Fed raised its range a quarter point to 3.75%–4% in a 12-0 vote, its first hike since July 2023; Trump demanded rates of "1%, or less." - Sept. 22–24 — Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee warned that reaching 2% inflation would be painful; Governor Michael Barr said more hikes were likely. - Sept. 30 — August PCE inflation came in at 3.4%, under the 3.7% forecast, and October hike odds fell to 35%. - Oct. 8 — Meeting minutes showed 16 of 18 officials expected at least one more hike this year. - Oct. 10 — Trump set a closed Nov. 5 White House hearing on whether he has cause to fire Cook. - Oct. 14–16 — Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September; producer prices rose 6.3%, the most since December 2022. - Oct. 17 — Warsh declined to preview the meeting, and market odds of an October hike fell to 28%.

ContextBefore September's hike, the range was 3.5%–3.75%. The Fed aims for 2% inflation on its preferred gauge, the PCE price index. That gauge rose 3.4% in the year to August, the Commerce Department said Sept. 30. Core consumer prices, which leave out food and energy, rose 2.6% in the year to September. Gasoline alone made up over half of September's monthly rise, the Labor Department said. Split votes are not new. In October 2025 the Fed also voted 10-2, with one dissent for a bigger cut and one for no cut. This was Cook's first dissent ever, NBC reported. The Fed will still meet eight times a year. From next fall, one meeting will go to longer-term questions instead of a rate vote, and two will in 2028.

PBS NEWSHOUR11 sources

3usUpdatecontestedMail-ballot rules

Judge David Carter says he will appoint a special master to examine how DOJ built its list of 20,000 California voters it calls likely noncitizens

Butte County Clerk Keaton Denlay says the list a federal agent hand-delivered held 46 entries, not the 47 names DOJ claimed, and he will not set any ballots aside.

- Oct. 15 — A 48-hour DOJ deadline to check the citizenship of listed mail voters passed, and DOJ sued to hold about 20,000 ballots uncounted. - Oct. 16 — DOJ warned officials who count the flagged ballots that they risk prosecution as "aiders and abettors." Trump reposted the warning on Truth Social: "They will all go to jail for a long period of time!!!" - Oct. 19 — DOJ charged 28 green-card holders from the list with voting crimes, saying 21 actually cast ballots. - Oct. 22 — Attorney General Todd Blanche would not rule out DOJ trying to block states from certifying midterm results. - Oct. 23 — DOJ gave California counties 48 hours to help check citizenship and set the ballots aside. - Oct. 26 — A 9th Circuit panel dismissed DOJ's emergency appeal 2-1, sending the fight back to Carter.

ContextU.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) gave a sworn count of about 20,930 names. It got them by matching California's 23 million registered voters against immigration records through an unnamed commercial data platform. It did not use SAVE, the federal citizenship-check database. The Oct. 19 charges covered 28 people from that list of about 20,930 names; DOJ says 21 of the 28 cast ballots. When DOJ rechecked a 200-name Los Angeles County sample, it found four people with possible citizenship claims and one dead person.

THE GUARDIAN4 sources

4us

HHS says it won't act against pharmacies compounding six unapproved peptides, overriding FDA reviewers who recommended against all six

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. signed the notice; the FDA had effectively banned the six from compounding in 2023 over safety concerns.

What FDA's safety review flagged before HHS overrode it: BPC-157: three adverse-event reports, including a shortness-of-breath ER visit and skin and gum darkening that returned on re-use; FDA called the link to the drug unclear Semax: a May 2025 report of eye pain and burning after online-bought nasal drops, with a hospital stay and symptoms lasting at least a year Epitalon: a theoretical cancer risk, because lengthening telomeres could let cells dodge normal aging; FDA did not find it causes cancer in people

ContextFDA's July briefing papers found no completed controlled human trials of KPV, MOTS-c or TB-500; BPC-157's only two controlled studies, with 53 and 32 people, gave it by enema rather than injection, and the larger showed no clear benefit. Patients will likely pay cash. A Chicago med spa already sells BPC-157 by the course, and Medicare Part D excludes bulk compounding ingredients.

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL9 sources

5usUpdateBrazil election

Flávio Bolsonaro flies to Miami despite a court order to surrender his passports and declares himself Brazil's elected president

Trump: "We gave him a pass to come into the country, so we'll see — but I won't get involved."

- Oct. 4 — Flávio Bolsonaro finished first in Brazil's first-round vote, beating a final Datafolha poll that had Lula ahead 42%-38%, and forced a runoff. - Oct. 25 — Trump officials campaigned for him, but Lula won the runoff by 4.4 million votes, taking a record fourth term. - Oct. 26–27 — Trump called the vote "rigged." Bolsonaro's campaign dropped its bid to annul the result and said it would accuse Lula of abuse of power. - Oct. 27–28 — He left Brazil as his passport-surrender deadline expired. Brazil canceled his passports, and the State Department said visas would cover him and his family.

ContextThe passport order came from Justice Alexandre de Moraes of Brazil's Supreme Federal Court, G1 and Valor reported. It is part of a sealed money-laundering probe of Flávio Bolsonaro and his friend, lawyer Willer Tomaz. Police suspect Tomaz's companies and online betting sites were used to launder money; both men deny wrongdoing. His father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, was sentenced to 27 years in prison for plotting a coup. Lula's government told Valor on Oct. 28 it would take no action, calling the departure a matter for courts and police. Return requires extradition under a 1961 treaty that omits defying a passport order, so Brazil would need a listed crime such as bribery or fraud, with the U.S. Secretary of State making the final call on surrender.

PBS NEWSHOUR8 sources

Thursday · The daily brief

Oct 292026

5 leads38 briefs25 min

BoardScroll

Executive summary5 stories

News news5

  1. New York Times reports Peltola's campaign helped recruit the second Dan Sullivan; Trump calls for prosecution and DOJ seeks fast discoveryPeltola's campaign and Senate Democrats' campaign arm deny it; the Times' key source, fired campaign manager Elisa Rios, later tried to retract her interviews.
  2. Fed holds its rate at 3.75%–4% in a 10-2 vote; Cook and Hammack dissent for a hikeChair Kevin Warsh also said the Fed will vote on rates less often: seven times in 2027 and six in 2028, down from eight a year since 1981.
  3. Judge David Carter says he will appoint a special master to examine how DOJ built its list of 20,000 California voters it calls likely noncitizensButte County Clerk Keaton Denlay says the list a federal agent hand-delivered held 46 entries, not the 47 names DOJ claimed, and he will not set any ballots aside.
  4. HHS says it won't act against pharmacies compounding six unapproved peptides, overriding FDA reviewers who recommended against all sixHealth Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. signed the notice; the FDA had effectively banned the six from compounding in 2023 over safety concerns.
  5. Flávio Bolsonaro flies to Miami despite a court order to surrender his passports and declares himself Brazil's elected presidentTrump: "We gave him a pass to come into the country, so we'll see — but I won't get involved."

News news5 stories

Ongoing6 earlier updates12 days

This story has run 7 times over 12 days, starting Oct 17.

  1. Sullivan breaks with Trump on Russian diesel deal in final toss-up Alaska Senate debate with Peltola
  2. UpdateJustice Department sues to block Alaska's Senate certification if Sen. Dan Sullivan loses, citing a second candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan
  3. UpdatePeltola's campaign and Senate Democrats file to defeat DOJ suit seeking to block Alaska's Senate certification if Sen. Sullivan loses
  4. UpdateBlanche says DOJ's Alaska suit is 'not saying don't certify'; the complaint asks a court to block certification if Sen. Dan Sullivan loses
  5. UpdateDaniel J. Sullivan, the second Sullivan on Alaska's ballot, calls DOJ's certification suit a 'gross misuse'
  6. UpdateAlaska's Republican-led state government joins Peltola in asking a judge to end DOJ's certification suit
  7. UpdateNew York Times reports Peltola's campaign helped recruit the second Dan Sullivan; Trump calls for prosecution and DOJ seeks fast discovery — this issue
FOX NEWSUpdateAlaska Senate race

New York Times reports Peltola's campaign helped recruit the second Dan Sullivan; Trump calls for prosecution and DOJ seeks fast discovery

Markets, not polling
Mary Peltola 69.5%▲4.3Sullivan 31.0%
Peltola's campaign and Senate Democrats' campaign arm deny it; the Times' key source, fired campaign manager Elisa Rios, later tried to retract her interviews.

The New York Times reported that the campaign of Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola worked with aides at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC, the party's Senate campaign arm), party lawyers and an operative to recruit spoiler candidates in Alaska's Senate race. One of them was Daniel J. Sullivan, who shares the name of the incumbent, Dan Sullivan (Sen-R Alaska).

The report. The Times interviewed 12 people, including Rios, and reviewed text messages and documents. It says the effort, called the "ballot composition project" internally, began in summer 2025, when a staffer was told to search voter rolls for Alaskans named Dan Sullivan. Rios said Peltola was not directly involved but was "definitely aware." Peltola fired Rios in August 2026.

The denials. The campaign and the DSCC deny any involvement. Asked in June about contact with Peltola's campaign, Daniel J. Sullivan said: "Zero, none, zilch."

Trump and DOJ. Trump said Peltola and Daniel J. Sullivan "should be prosecuted" and that she should not "be allowed to run, because this is ELECTION FRAUD." The Justice Department dropped its opposition to the campaign joining its lawsuit, which asks a federal court to delay certification if Sen. Sullivan loses because of voter confusion.

What next. DOJ says it will seek expedited discovery (court-ordered access to the other side's records), "including as to whether the Campaign attempted to deceive the Court." U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason has not set a discovery schedule.

Catch upwhat happened before · 6 earlier issues
  • Oct. 15 — Sullivan and Peltola met in their final debate in a toss-up race; Sullivan broke with Trump on a Russian diesel deal.
  • Oct. 22 — DOJ sued to block certification if Sullivan loses, citing confusion with a second candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan. Trump said Oct. 23: "I'm the one that said do it."
  • Oct. 23 — Peltola's campaign and the DSCC moved to join the suit and have it dismissed.
  • Oct. 25 — Attorney General Todd Blanche said on CBS that the suit is "not saying, 'don't certify.'"
  • Oct. 26 — Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired teacher, called the suit a "gross misuse" and said the Alaska Supreme Court settled his ballot place. That night, Alaska's Republican-led state government also asked the judge to dismiss the suit.
5 earlier issues
How Alaska's ballot sends a mistaken Daniel J. vote backThe ballot lists the incumbent as "Sullivan, Dan S.3 details
  • The ballot lists the incumbent as "Sullivan, Dan S. (Registered Republican) Incumbent" and the challenger as "Sullivan, Daniel J. Jr." with no party printed.
  • A ballot ranking Daniel J. first and the incumbent second moves to the incumbent once Daniel J. is eliminated, as long as the incumbent is still in the count.

Red take

Judge Sharon Gleason, the federal judge hearing the Justice Department's suit, should open Democrat Mary Peltola's campaign records, because a source can try to retract her interviews but the texts the New York Times reviewed cannot. The Times describes a "ballot composition project" that began with a staffer searching voter rolls for Alaskans named Dan Sullivan. Certify first, and Alaskans may never learn whether a second Sullivan was recruited to split the Republican incumbent's vote.

Blue take

A president who says Democrat Mary Peltola should not "be allowed to run" has no business sending his Justice Department through her campaign files. Trump has said of the suit, "I'm the one that said do it," and its key source, Elisa Rios, is a campaign manager Peltola fired in August who tried to retract her interviews. If federal Judge Sharon Gleason opens them, any White House learns one disputed story buys a search of its rival's campaign.

Ongoing16 earlier updates48 days

This story has run 17 times over 48 days, starting Sep 11.

  1. August inflation holds at 3.4% annually; gasoline drives monthly increase
  2. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the year, lifting September Fed rate hike odds above 80%
  3. Trump threatens trade cutoff with some nations unless Fed lowers rates despite 3.4% inflation
  4. Update10-year Treasury yield hit 5.014% Monday, Sept. 14, first time since October 2023
  5. Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark rate a quarter point on Wednesday, Sept. 16, its first hike in three years.
  6. UpdateFed raises its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since July 2023
  7. UpdateChicago Fed's Goolsbee says getting inflation to 2% will be 'painful' and require pushing employment below target
  8. Fed Governor Michael Barr says more rate increases are likely to counter inflation
  9. UpdateAugust PCE inflation was 3.4%, below the 3.7% forecast, cutting October Fed hike odds to 35% from 45%
  10. Markets pull back bets on October Fed and ECB rate hikes after weak US jobs data
  11. UpdateFed minutes show most officials expect another rate hike by year end
  12. Trump sets a closed White House hearing for Nov. 5 on whether he has cause to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook
  13. UpdateConsumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, up from 3.4%, as increases spread beyond gasoline
  14. UpdateProducer prices rose 6.3% in the year to September, the most since December 2022, with fuel half the gain
  15. UpdateFed Chair Kevin Warsh declines to preview Oct. 27-28 meeting; rate hike odds fall to 28%
  16. Fed expected to hold rates at 3.75%-4% Wednesday, Oct. 28, a week before midterms, despite 3.7% inflation
  17. UpdateFed holds its rate at 3.75%–4% in a 10-2 vote; Cook and Hammack dissent for a hike — this issue
PBS NEWSHOURUpdate

Fed holds its rate at 3.75%–4% in a 10-2 vote; Cook and Hammack dissent for a hike

Chair Kevin Warsh also said the Fed will vote on rates less often: seven times in 2027 and six in 2028, down from eight a year since 1981.

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate (the target range for what banks charge each other overnight, which steers loan and savings rates) at 3.75%–4% on Wednesday, Oct. 28. It was the Fed's last decision before the Nov. 3 midterms.

The vote. 10-2. Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted against the hold because they wanted another increase.

The backdrop. Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, up from 3.4% in August, the Labor Department reported.

Warsh. The chair called the meeting "a heck of a family fight" and said "I didn't hear an utterance about politics."

Catch upwhat happened before · 16 earlier issues
  • Sept. 16 — The Fed raised its range a quarter point to 3.75%–4% in a 12-0 vote, its first hike since July 2023; Trump demanded rates of "1%, or less."
  • Sept. 22–24 — Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee warned that reaching 2% inflation would be painful; Governor Michael Barr said more hikes were likely.
  • Sept. 30 — August PCE inflation came in at 3.4%, under the 3.7% forecast, and October hike odds fell to 35%.
  • Oct. 8 — Meeting minutes showed 16 of 18 officials expected at least one more hike this year.
  • Oct. 10 — Trump set a closed Nov. 5 White House hearing on whether he has cause to fire Cook.
  • Oct. 14–16 — Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September; producer prices rose 6.3%, the most since December 2022.
  • Oct. 17 — Warsh declined to preview the meeting, and market odds of an October hike fell to 28%.
15 earlier issues
What the Fed sees before its Dec. 9 decisionOct. 29: September PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred price gauge3 details
  • Oct. 29: September PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred price gauge
  • Nov. 6: October jobs report
  • Nov. 10: October consumer prices, the only new CPI before the vote
Ongoing7 earlier updates14 days

This story has run 8 times over 14 days, starting Oct 15.

  1. Justice Department orders California to check citizenship of an undisclosed list of mail voters and hold their ballots by noon Thursday, Oct. 15
  2. UpdateJustice Department sues California and Los Angeles County to hold uncounted the mail ballots of about 20,000 people it calls likely noncitizens
  3. UpdateDOJ warns California officials who count suspected noncitizens' ballots they risk federal prosecution
  4. UpdateTrump says Los Angeles election officials 'will all go to jail' if they count the mail ballots of 20,000 people DHS flagged as likely noncitizens
  5. UpdateJustice Department gives California counties 48 hours to help check the citizenship of roughly 20,000 listed voters and asks them to set aside those mail ballots
  6. Update9th Circuit panel of two Trump appointees and one Biden appointee doubts it can order California to set aside mail ballots of about 20,000 people DOJ calls likely noncitizens
  7. Update9th Circuit panel dismisses, 2-1, DOJ's emergency appeal to make California set aside mail ballots of 20,000-plus listed voters
  8. UpdateJudge David Carter says he will appoint a special master to examine how DOJ built its list of 20,000 California voters it calls likely noncitizens — this issue
THE GUARDIANUpdate

Judge David Carter says he will appoint a special master to examine how DOJ built its list of 20,000 California voters it calls likely noncitizens

Butte County Clerk Keaton Denlay says the list a federal agent hand-delivered held 46 entries, not the 47 names DOJ claimed, and he will not set any ballots aside.

At a hearing on Tuesday, Oct. 27, U.S. District Judge David O. Carter was skeptical of an emergency request from the Justice Department. DOJ wants about 20,000 California mail ballots set aside, saying they belong to likely noncitizens. ([TS]DOJ's own release says only that these people are believed to have been sent ballots. It does not say the ballots came back.) Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.

The judge. Carter said he will appoint a special master (an outside reviewer the court picks to dig into evidence) to examine how DOJ built its list. He also told the department to stop threatening election officials.

“This court believes it would be wise that any threats to state and county elected employees cease immediately.”Judge David O. Carter

The clerk. Denlay says the agent's list was full of errors. A DOJ letter came with it. The letter warned that officials who knowingly count ballots from people federal agencies flag as noncitizens "risk becoming aiders and abettors to a federal crime." Denlay's answer: "Taking all this information as a whole, it kind of becomes absurd, so I'm not losing any sleep over it."

Catch upwhat happened before · 7 earlier issues
  • Oct. 15 — A 48-hour DOJ deadline to check the citizenship of listed mail voters passed, and DOJ sued to hold about 20,000 ballots uncounted.
  • Oct. 16 — DOJ warned officials who count the flagged ballots that they risk prosecution as "aiders and abettors." Trump reposted the warning on Truth Social: "They will all go to jail for a long period of time!!!"
  • Oct. 19 — DOJ charged 28 green-card holders from the list with voting crimes, saying 21 actually cast ballots.
  • Oct. 22 — Attorney General Todd Blanche would not rule out DOJ trying to block states from certifying midterm results.
  • Oct. 23 — DOJ gave California counties 48 hours to help check citizenship and set the ballots aside.
  • Oct. 26 — A 9th Circuit panel dismissed DOJ's emergency appeal 2-1, sending the fight back to Carter.
6 earlier issues
What Butte County found when it checked DOJ's listNames DOJ's letter claimed: 475 details
  • Names DOJ's letter claimed: 47
  • Entries on the list: 46
  • Distinct people: 45
  • Not on active voter rolls: 32
  • Too little information to identify: 7

Red take

Set the flagged ballots aside until the outside reviewer that Judge David Carter, the federal trial judge on the case, says he will appoint has checked DOJ's list, because a set-aside ballot can still be counted later and a counted one can never be pulled back out. DOJ has already charged 28 green-card holders from that list, saying 21 actually voted. Count first, and a close California race could hang on votes nobody can separate out.

Blue take

When Butte County Clerk Keaton Denlay checked the list a federal agent hand-delivered to him, he found it riddled with errors: 46 entries where DOJ claimed 47, and 32 of the 45 people not on the county's active rolls. DOJ's own release says only that these people are believed to have been sent ballots. Freezing about 20,000 mail ballots on that record leaves citizens' votes uncounted on a federal guess, and teaches every clerk that counting a ballot can bring a threat of prosecution.

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

HHS says it won't act against pharmacies compounding six unapproved peptides, overriding FDA reviewers who recommended against all six

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. signed the notice; the FDA had effectively banned the six from compounding in 2023 over safety concerns.

The Department of Health and Human Services said it will not take action against compounding pharmacies (pharmacies that mix a drug for one patient's prescription) that make six unapproved peptides: BPC-157, TB-500, Epitalon, KPV, MOTS-c and Semax. The tool is enforcement discretion, a stated choice not to enforce the law. It skips formal rulemaking, and a later secretary can reverse it.

The objections. Six people familiar with the drafting told AP that most FDA scientific staff opposed the policy and had little say in writing it. HHS first sought a formal regulation, then switched to this route after FDA officials relayed that opposition. Former FDA official Peter Lurie, now at the Center for Science in the Public Interest, said the FDA was essentially "turning a blind eye." Kennedy calls himself a "big fan" of peptides.

The limits. . KPV is covered only by mouth or on the skin, and Semax only as a nasal spray.

The market. Shares of telehealth seller Hims & Hers closed up 5% on Wednesday, Oct. 28, at $29.32.

What next. The notice was filed Wednesday, Oct. 28, for Federal Register publication Friday, Oct. 30. It calls the policy a nonbinding draft.

What FDA's safety review flagged before HHS overrode itBPC-157: three adverse-event reports, including a shortness-of-breath ER visit and skin and gum darkening that returned on re-use;…3 details
  • BPC-157: three adverse-event reports, including a shortness-of-breath ER visit and skin and gum darkening that returned on re-use; FDA called the link to the drug unclear
  • Semax: a May 2025 report of eye pain and burning after online-bought nasal drops, with a hospital stay and symptoms lasting at least a year
  • Epitalon: a theoretical cancer risk, because lengthening telomeres could let cells dodge normal aging; FDA did not find it causes cancer in people
Ongoing7 earlier updates25 days

This story has run 8 times over 25 days, starting Oct 4.

  1. Polls show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a close race before Brazil's first-round vote Sunday, Oct. 4
  2. UpdateFlávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in Brazil's first-round presidential vote count; Oct. 25 runoff likely
  3. UpdateFlávio Bolsonaro finishes first over Lula (President, Brazil), forcing an Oct. 25 runoff
  4. Trump officials campaign for Flávio Bolsonaro to beat Lula in Brazil's Oct. 25 runoff
  5. UpdateLula overturns first-round deficit to beat Flávio Bolsonaro for record fourth term
  6. UpdateTrump says Brazil's vote looked 'rigged'; Flávio Bolsonaro is dropping his bid to annul Lula's 4.4 million-vote win, campaign says
  7. UpdateFlávio Bolsonaro leaves Brazil for the U.S. as his passport deadline expires; State Department will issue visas
  8. UpdateFlávio Bolsonaro flies to Miami despite a court order to surrender his passports and declares himself Brazil's elected president — this issue
PBS NEWSHOURUpdateBrazil election

Flávio Bolsonaro flies to Miami despite a court order to surrender his passports and declares himself Brazil's elected president

Trump: "We gave him a pass to come into the country, so we'll see — but I won't get involved."

Flávio Bolsonaro lost Brazil's Oct. 25 presidential runoff to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. He landed with his family at Miami-Opa Locka Executive Airport on Wednesday, Oct. 28.

The route. To get there, he crossed overland into Argentina, took a private jet to Guayaquil, Ecuador, and flew on to Miami, defying a Brazilian court order to surrender his passports. On Monday, Oct. 26, he had said, "I have never thought about leaving the country."

The letter. After landing, he released a letter calling himself Brazil's "true elected president." He later edited the version on his X account to call himself "the leader of Brazil," Folha de S.Paulo reported. Both versions allege fraud without evidence.

“I am the elected president, and the criminals who stole Brazil's election are part of a criminal organization that has established a tyranny.”Flávio Bolsonaro, in the first version of his letter, per O Globo (translated from Portuguese)

Lula's answer. "Those who have nothing to hide have nothing to fear."

Where it stands. His Senate term, and with it his protection from prosecution, ends in February 2027.

Catch upwhat happened before · 7 earlier issues
  • Oct. 4 — Flávio Bolsonaro finished first in Brazil's first-round vote, beating a final Datafolha poll that had Lula ahead 42%-38%, and forced a runoff.
  • Oct. 25 — Trump officials campaigned for him, but Lula won the runoff by 4.4 million votes, taking a record fourth term.
  • Oct. 26–27 — Trump called the vote "rigged." Bolsonaro's campaign dropped its bid to annul the result and said it would accuse Lula of abuse of power.
  • Oct. 27–28 — He left Brazil as his passport-surrender deadline expired. Brazil canceled his passports, and the State Department said visas would cover him and his family.
6 earlier issues
What Trump's 'pass' actually grants him, per his CBP recordG1 reports that his U.S. Customs and Border Protection record lists temporary parole (category DT), valid through Oct. 27, 20273 details
  • G1 reports that his U.S. Customs and Border Protection record lists temporary parole (category DT), valid through Oct. 27, 2027
  • Parole is not a formal immigration admission, and the Homeland Security Department can end it before that date
  • CBP had not told G1 why he qualified; parole requires an urgent humanitarian reason or a significant public benefit

Quick bites16

Courts5 bites

  1. Judge rules Bill Essayli is unlawfully serving as LA's top federal prosecutor and bars him from supervising challenged cases

    THE HILL

    U.S. District Judge J. Michael Seabright found Essayli is a 'de facto' U.S. attorney beyond the 120-day limit federal law sets for acting U.S. attorneys, relying on the 9th Circuit's August ruling that Nevada's Sigal Chattah was unlawfully appointed.

    Where it standsThe order is stayed pending appeal; Essayli said 'this question will be decided by the Supreme Court.'2 details
    • The order is stayed pending appeal; Essayli said 'this question will be decided by the Supreme Court.'
    • Essayli is also leading DOJ's push against 20,000 California ballots.
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times over 11 days, starting Oct 18.

    1. Federal judge signals Bill Essayli is likely to be disqualified as head of the LA U.S. attorney's office
    2. Judge rules Bill Essayli is unlawfully serving as LA's top federal prosecutor and bars him from supervising challenged cases — this issue

  2. CNN says it was shut out of all six of its Air Force One pool trips; three outlets ask court to restore access

    THE WASHINGTON POST

    CNN, MS NOW and Politico's amended complaint, filed Wednesday, Oct. 28, asks a court to restore their reporters' access to the Oval Office, Air Force One and other areas. It argues the exclusions are viewpoint discrimination that violates the First Amendment. CNN says it was barred from Air Force One all six times it was the scheduled TV pooler since the Sept. 18 ban. The suit says Politico was barred from two scheduled pool trips. U.S. District Judge Timothy Kelly's Oct. 13 injunction restored their press passes but did not cover the Oval Office or Air Force One, CNBC reports. After that ruling, the White House said the "Fake News" has "no place demanding a spot in the President's Oval Office."

  3. DOJ asks court to keep the search warrant for Ilhan Omar's D.C. home sealed

    THE HILL

    Prosecutors under D.C. U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro asked Chief Judge James Boasberg to deny requests from news organizations, the NYT and Judicial Watch to unseal the warrant behind the Oct. 12 search of the Washington home of Ilhan Omar (Rep-D Minnesota). If Boasberg agrees, the basis for the search stays out of public view.

  4. SPLC asks judge to let it subpoena informant 'F-9', saying DOJ let him choose what evidence to hand over

    CBS NEWS

    F-9 was the SPLC's own former informant, the New York Times reports, and the SPLC's filing says he admitted to a 'house full of documents,' some of which he has talked of plans to 'shred.'

    • The SPLC faces 11 counts, including wire fraud, bank fraud and money-laundering conspiracy, and pleaded not guilty.
    • Former SPLC executive Heidi Beirich is also charged; prosecutors say she had a romantic relationship with F-9.

  5. FBI agent testifies Kash Patel personally assigned the case against two ex-FBI officials after a Trump speech

    CBS NEWSUpdate

    At the probable-cause hearing for former FBI officials Nikki Floris and Bradley Benavides, case agent Bryan Witt testified about how the case began. He said the probe grew out of Trump's July speech on election fraud claims. He said FBI Director Kash Patel personally sent it to the Kansas City field office. He also admitted that key witnesses were never interviewed.

    How we got herethe story so far
    • Oct. 20 — Prosecutors charged Floris and Benavides, two former FBI task force leaders, in a sealed criminal complaint, not a grand jury indictment. Each faces one count of lying to Congress about the unit's role in the Hunter Biden investigations.
    • Oct. 23 — The two surrendered, and D.C. U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro announced the charges.
    • Oct. 27 — Magistrate Judge Zia Faruqui struck an obstruction charge prosecutors had filed overnight without a judge's approval, saying he knew of no case where that had been done. Only the false-statements count remains.
    In the courtroomMagistrate Judge Zia Faruqui to prosecutors: "Everything you're doing just is making me more and more concerned that there's…3 details
    • Magistrate Judge Zia Faruqui to prosecutors: "Everything you're doing just is making me more and more concerned that there's something to that." (ABC News)
    • Faruqui will go through the alleged false statements line by line on Thursday, Oct. 29.
    • Defense attorney Margaret Donovan: "For her to give a false statement, you need to have an understanding of what the question is that she was responding to."
Sanctions on the table2 bites

  1. Qatar-led mediators urge Iran to admit UN inspectors for partial U.S. sanctions relief; U.S. and Israeli officials expect a week of strikes after the midterms without a deal

    AXIOSIran war

    Qatar-led mediators are urging Iran to let UN inspectors into its bombed nuclear sites in exchange for some U.S. sanctions relief, Axios and Bloomberg report. Unnamed U.S. and Israeli officials told Axios they expect a week of massive strikes soon after the midterms if there is no deal. Trump told Axios "we need to finish the job — either through a deal or another way."

    Trump also confirmed on Wednesday, Oct. 28, that Vice President JD Vance wrote to Iranian authorities. The Wall Street Journal, citing U.S. officials, reported that Vance wrote to Iranian official Mohsen Rezaei at Trump's direction to revive peace talks. Asked if he had directed that, Trump said "no." He said Iran needs "help with medical supplies and various things."

    Who's at the tableQatar leads the mediation, backed by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey, according to Axios.2 details
    • Qatar leads the mediation, backed by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey, according to Axios.
    • Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on X: "Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed."
    Ongoing28

    This story has run 29 times over 50 days, starting Sep 9.

    1. Houthi missiles and drones hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and halting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery
    2. UpdateBrent oil exceeds $100 a barrel; US diesel reaches $5.94 a gallon
    3. Houthis capture Yemen's Mokha from Saudi-backed forces 46 miles from Bab el-Mandeb
    4. UpdateHouthi forces captured Mokha and Perim island in the 28-kilometer Bab el-Mandeb strait.
    5. UpdateA day after the Bab el-Mandeb capture, maritime monitors have recorded no new transit halts
    6. UpdateSaudi Arabia shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline, oil rises more than $3 with 4% of supply at risk
    7. UpdateHouthis seize two more Red Sea islands as Saudi pipeline faces 3-to-5-week outage
    8. UpdateSaudi Arabia suspends loadings at its last open oil terminal; September cargoes cancelled
    9. Attacks on Saudi export pipeline push WTI crude to $107.02 a barrel, a 30-day high
    10. UpdateHouthi missiles hit Riyadh, burning a fuel depot near King Khalid airport
    11. UpdateSaudi Arabia says it intercepted a Houthi missile aimed at Riyadh
    12. UpdateTrump declined a prepared U.S. air campaign against the Houthis, giving Saudi Arabia intelligence and targeting data instead
    13. UpdateSaudi Arabia tested its shut east-west pipeline for a restart as oil fell below $98
    14. Chris Murphy (Sen-D Connecticut) says Pentagon is hiding Iran war damage and a deal isn't imminent
    15. UpdateStrike on Riyadh airport kills 12, including an American; Trump says the U.S. "may" join Saudi strikes on the Houthis
    16. UpdateRiyadh airport hit again Sunday, Oct. 11, killing one; Saturday's strike toll rises to at least 13, including an American
    17. UpdateSaudi Arabia investigates why its air defenses failed to stop the Houthi strike that killed at least 13 at Riyadh's airport
    18. UpdateSaudi-led coalition bombs Houthi oil facilities and a fuel depot in Yemen after a Riyadh airport strike killed at least 13
    19. Houthi strike damages 3 floors of Aramco's Dhahran headquarters, including executive offices; no casualties
    20. Brent crude touches $110 a barrel, its first time there since May 20, after Saudi-led forces intercept missiles aimed at energy hubs
    21. Iran is giving the Houthis targeting and intelligence help for their strikes on Saudi Arabia, WSJ reports
    22. Judge jails ex-OpenAI engineer accused of bugging executives; prosecutors say Saudi official flew his family out
    23. UpdateBrent crude tops $111 a barrel, its highest since May, after Iran and the Houthis claim attacks on Gulf ships and Saudi oil sites
    24. UpdateState Department orders non-emergency U.S. staff and families out of Saudi Arabia after Houthi attacks on airports and oil sites
    25. Brent crude hits $116-117 a barrel Friday, Oct. 23, on fears the Iran war escalates again
    26. UpdateU.S. cuts staff at embassies in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and the UAE after intelligence chief says Iranian plots to kill Americans are at 'advanced stages'
    27. UpdateTrump says it's 'decision time' on Iran: a deal, or resumed attacks to 'finish it off'
    28. Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani envoys meet Iran's security chiefs in Tehran to push for a U.S.-Iran deal
    29. Qatar-led mediators urge Iran to admit UN inspectors for partial U.S. sanctions relief; U.S. and Israeli officials expect a week of strikes after the midterms without a deal — this issue

  2. Trump officials discuss lifting sanctions on Russia's sovereign investment fund, and Moscow confirms the talks

    THE NEW YORK TIMESRussia-Ukraine war

    The target is the Russian Direct Investment Fund, which the Biden administration's Treasury called "a slush fund" for Putin in 2022. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on Wednesday, Oct. 28, that talks on lifting the sanctions are underway, Reuters reported. NYT's Peter Baker wrote on X that the move would be "the latest unilateral concession to Moscow with no reciprocal action."

Deaths2 bites

  1. Dolores Huerta, who co-founded the United Farm Workers and coined 'Sí, se puede,' died at 96

    NBC NEWS

    She died of cancer Wednesday, Oct. 28, at home in Bakersfield, California, family spokesman Erik Olvera said. Earlier this year she told The New York Times that co-founder César Chávez had sexually abused her. The Times also reports some women say she rebuffed their own abuse complaints within the movement.

    • She helped lead the 1965–1970 Delano grape strike.
    • Barack Obama awarded her the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2012.
    • NBC counts more than 25 arrests for nonviolent civil disobedience.

  2. Judge Alvin Hellerstein, who presided over Maduro's case and refused Trump's hush-money transfer bids, dies at 92

    PBS NEWSHOUR

    The Clinton appointee, on the Manhattan federal bench since 1998, was still hearing the Maduro case this month, telling Flores' Oct. 8 bail hearing, per the AP, "I have a voice problem. As long as you can understand — hear me, I'll keep going."

    The two casesTrump ruling, July 2023: "Reimbursing Cohen for advancing hush money to Stephanie Clifford cannot be considered the performance of…2 details
    • Trump ruling, July 2023: "Reimbursing Cohen for advancing hush money to Stephanie Clifford cannot be considered the performance of a constitutional duty."
    • Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, face narco-terrorism charges plus torture charges added later, per the AP; trial was set for June 14, 2027, per the Miami Herald.
Also tonight2 bites

  1. DDoSecrets publishes contact and job details for 40,000+ DHS staff, including undercover roles

    THE GUARDIAN

    A group calling itself the "Department of Peace" says it reached the profiles through Okta's single sign-on service, but Okta says it has no evidence it was compromised.

    The troveThe 40,000-plus count, out of a DHS workforce of about 260,000, is DDoSecrets' own; BBC News puts it above 41,000.2 details
    • The 40,000-plus count, out of a DHS workforce of about 260,000, is DDoSecrets' own; BBC News puts it above 41,000. Reuters says it could not verify the whole trove but confirmed details for nine employees.
    • A DDoSecrets co-founder said a public search tool for the data would "replace anonymity with accountability."

  2. Health Secretary RFK Jr. tells Michigan rally that Arabs "don't produce science" or win major prizes

    THE HILLRFK Jr.'s vaccine moves

    An AP fact-check found Arabs have won or been shortlisted for every prize Kennedy named, and CAIR, health advocates and Democrats condemned the remarks.

    What was saidKennedy: "They don't produce science, they don't win the Nobel Prize, they don't win the Fields prize, they don't win the Wolf…3 details
    • Kennedy: "They don't produce science, they don't win the Nobel Prize, they don't win the Fields prize, they don't win the Wolf prize, they don't produce literature."
    • Kennedy blamed the Muslim Brotherhood, saying its rise "created stagnant societies" and ended a "golden age" of Islamic science and art, per The Guardian.
    • Hillary Scholten (Rep-D Michigan): "The last I checked, Secretary Kennedy has neither a medical degree nor a Nobel peace prize, and his rhetoric has undermined public confidence in health science. Maybe he should sit this one out."
Elections5 bites

  1. Hennepin County prosecutor charges James O'Keefe and Cam Higby with felonies for posing as real voters

    WSJ

    County Attorney Mary Moriarty charged both men with felony unlawful voting and identity theft. Prosecutors say they wore disguises and used the names of 4 real registered voters. Neither signed the voter oath or got a ballot. But Moriarty says state law bars lying about who you are when you ask for one.

    • Maximum prison term if convicted: 10 years (Washington Examiner)
    • Minnesota lets one registered voter vouch for up to 8 others (The Guardian, NBC News)
    • Under 0.6% of 2024 general-election votes used vouching (The Guardian)

  2. Cruz calls Michigan Senate Democrat Abdul El-Sayed a 'jihadist leprechaun' and says Americans could die if he joins the Intelligence Committee

    CBS NEWSUpdateMichigan Senate race

    Ted Cruz (Sen-R Texas) spoke at a Grosse Pointe Woods event for Republican nominee Mike Rogers on Wednesday, Oct. 28, CBS News reported. CBS expects the race between Rogers and El-Sayed to be razor-tight.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

    At a Port Huron rally on Sunday, Oct. 25, Trump called El-Sayed a "jihadist," which Arab Americans for Trump founder Bishara Bahbah called racist. That day, El-Sayed told a Grand Rapids rally with Bernie Sanders (Sen-I Vermont): "I will be Senator Mohamed to you, bro."

    Who said whatCruz: "My nickname for the guy is the jihadist leprechaun." If El-Sayed joins the Senate Intelligence Committee, "and if I am…4 details
    • Cruz: "My nickname for the guy is the jihadist leprechaun." If El-Sayed joins the Senate Intelligence Committee, "and if I am correct that he is a passionate supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, there is a very real risk that Americans will die as a result."
    • El-Sayed: "I have never been a member of the Muslim Brotherhood." His campaign calls the attacks "a bigoted anti-Muslim smear campaign."
    • Bernie Moreno (Sen-R Ohio), at a Chillicothe, Ohio, rally on Wednesday, Oct. 28: El-Sayed "can be nowhere near Washington, D.C." He asked if El-Sayed understands "that Jesus came here for our salvation."
    • Vice President JD Vance, asked on Tuesday, Oct. 27, if El-Sayed is a jihadist: "I don't know what's in the guy's heart. I just know he has a lot of weird friends."
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times over 2 days, starting Oct 27.

    1. UpdateTrump's 2024 Arab American ally Bishara Bahbah calls his 'jihadist' attacks on El-Sayed 'racist'
    2. UpdateCruz calls Michigan Senate Democrat Abdul El-Sayed a 'jihadist leprechaun' and says Americans could die if he joins the Intelligence Committee — this issue

  3. Over 39 million have voted early; Texas early voters model 51% Democratic, 45% Republican

    ABC NEWSUpdate

    More than 39 million Americans had voted early by Wednesday afternoon, Oct. 28, up from about 35 million the night before, the University of Florida's Election Lab counted. In Texas, voters modeled as likely Democrats cast 51% of early votes through Monday, Oct. 26, and likely Republicans 45%, an ABC News analysis found.

    By 9:54 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Oct. 27, the UF Election Lab counted more than 35 million early voters, about 31% of the 112 million 2022 midterm ballots the Election Assistance Commission counted. In the lab's count for the 27 states that report party, registered Democrats led registered Republicans 45% to 31%.

    Beyond the toplineTexas has over 5 million early ballots, more than 20% of registered voters, by the UF lab's count.5 details
    • Texas has over 5 million early ballots, more than 20% of registered voters, by the UF lab's count.
    • When Texas early voting ended in 2022, modeled Republicans led by about 8 points, so ABC calls this a 14-point swing.
    • Texas and Georgia: ABC finds Democrats doing slightly better than in 2022 with less-habitual voters, especially in Texas.
    • Election scholar Michael McDonald: 2026 will be "the most diverse midterm electorate in U.S. history."
    • The 51%–45% split is modeled party lean of who voted, not counted votes.

  4. NYT/Siena poll has South Carolina's Senate race tied 48% to 48% between Darline Graham and Annie Andrews

    CBS NEWSS.C. Senate primary

    Darline Graham (Sen-R South Carolina) and Democrat Annie Andrews each draw 48% of likely voters in a New York Times/Siena poll, with 3% undecided. Graham was appointed in July, and Trump won the state by about 18 points in 2024.

    Behind the tieThe poll: 707 likely voters, Oct. 19-26, with a margin of error of 4.3 points.4 details
    • The poll: 707 likely voters, Oct. 19-26, with a margin of error of 4.3 points.
    • Andrews leads independents 57% to 37% and wins 7% of Republicans.
    • 51% of voters say Graham lacks the right experience to be an effective senator.
    • Gov. Henry McMaster appointed Graham on July 13, after her brother, Lindsey Graham, died.
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times over 8 days, starting Oct 21.

    1. Cook shifts South Carolina and Mississippi Senate races toward Democrats, Minnesota toward GOP; Darline Graham leads by 2.7 points
    2. NYT/Siena poll has South Carolina's Senate race tied 48% to 48% between Darline Graham and Annie Andrews — this issue

  5. Lisa Murkowski (Sen-R Alaska) endorses Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins for Alaska governor over Trump-backed Bernadette Wilson

    POLITICOAlaska governor's race

    Kreiss-Tomkins faces Wilson and two other Republicans in a four-way ranked-choice race that NBC News's Decision Desk rates Lean Democratic.

    Who said whatWilson: Murkowski "abandoned Alaska values a long time ago" and backed "'Just Keep Taxing' JKT."3 details
    • Wilson: Murkowski "abandoned Alaska values a long time ago" and backed "'Just Keep Taxing' JKT."
    • GOP operative Art Hackney: "Lisa is Lisa. She doesn't make decisions based on party."
    • Larry Persily, a longtime Alaska political aide and journalist, told Politico he does not think the endorsement is a "signal for 2028."

Elections22 races

The midterms · 5 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Oct 28, 8:43 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 93%, Kalshi 91%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 68%, Kalshi 67%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 91.1–92.5%
93%91%chance Democrats take it · 1.4pp apart · neither venue moved this week
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 93% and Kalshi 91%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 66.5–67.5%
68%67%chance Democrats take it · 1.0pp apart · no clear move — the venues went opposite ways
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 68% and Kalshi 67%.

3 closest races

  • uIowa SenateAshley Hinson 55.0%▲2.2Josh Turek 45.5%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Oct 28, 8:43 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 61.8%▲1.9Rick Jackson 39.3%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Oct 28, 8:43 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 62.0%, Kalshi 61.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 38.0%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • rMaine SenateTroy Jackson 62.5%▲2.8Susan Collins 37.5%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Oct 28, 8:43 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 63.5%, Kalshi 61.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 38.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 12 still in doubt · Oct 28, 8:43 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate8 of 10

  • tAlaska SenateMary Peltola 69.5%▲4.3Sullivan 31.0%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Oct 28, 8:43 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 69.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • abGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 95.95%▲0.2Collins 4.15%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Oct 28, 8:43 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.1pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 96.45%, Kalshi 95.45%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 3.6%, Kalshi 4.7%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.1pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • vMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 70.3%▲0.5Mike Rogers 30.0%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Oct 28, 8:43 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 70.0%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 30.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • acNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 71.0%▲2.3Osborn 29.8%

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead after Osborn gained about three points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Oct 28, 8:43 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 71.5%, Kalshi 70.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 29.0%, Kalshi 30.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • adNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 90.3%10.5%Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Oct 28, 8:43 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 91.0%, Kalshi 89.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 9.5%, Kalshi 11.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aaNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 97.03%▲0.6Whatley 3.02%

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Oct 28, 8:43 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.2pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 97.60%, Kalshi 96.45%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 2.50%, Kalshi 3.55%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • wOhio SenateSherrod Brown 67.5%▲2.3Jon Husted 33.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Oct 28, 8:43 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 33.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • sTexas SenateJames Talarico 68.5%▲0.9Ken Paxton 32.0%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Oct 28, 8:43 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 68.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 31.5%, Kalshi 32.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors11 of 12

  • afAlaska governor11.25%88.6%WilsonBegich 0.08%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a clear lead after losing about four points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Oct 28, 8:43 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 11.0%, Kalshi 11.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 0.05%, Kalshi 0.10%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • ahArizona governorKatie Hobbs 90.88%▲0.59.07%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Oct 28, 8:43 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.2pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 91.50%, Kalshi 90.25%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 8.50%, Kalshi 9.65%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • alFlorida governorByron Donalds 71.5%▲8.328.0%Jolly

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead after the Democratic side gained about eight points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Oct 28, 8:43 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 71.5%, Kalshi 71.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 28.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aeIowa governorRob Sand 84.0%16.3%Lahn

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side gained about four points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Oct 28, 8:43 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 84.5%, Kalshi 83.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 16.0%, Kalshi 16.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • agMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 93.30%▲0.6James 6.53%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Oct 28, 8:43 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.4pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 93.9%, Kalshi 92.7%; John James (R): Polymarket 5.85%, Kalshi 7.20%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • zNevada governorAaron Ford 78.5%▲11.9Lombardo 21.5%

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Aaron Ford (D) faces Joe Lombardo (R).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: it is up about twelve points.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Oct 28, 8:43 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 79.5%, Kalshi 77.5%; Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 20.5%, Kalshi 22.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ajNew York governorKathy Hochul 96.10%▲0.9Blakeman 4.05%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Oct 28, 8:43 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.4pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 96.7%, Kalshi 95.5%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 3.35%, Kalshi 4.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • qOhio governorAmy Acton 80.5%▲0.920.3%Ramaswamy

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Oct 28, 8:43 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 19.0%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • akPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 97.68%▲0.2Garrity 2.48%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Oct 28, 8:43 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.6pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 97.95%, Kalshi 97.40%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.20%, Kalshi 2.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aiTexas governorGreg Abbott 63.3%▲4.8Hinojosa 36.5%

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead after losing about seven points in four days.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Oct 28, 8:43 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.4pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 62.1%, Kalshi 64.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 37.5%, Kalshi 35.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • xWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 83.8%▲3.515.5%Tiffany

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Oct 28, 8:43 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 84.0%, Kalshi 83.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 14.5%, Kalshi 16.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Oct 28, 8:43 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

11 stories that didn't make the cutSeen by the desk, ranked, and not run. The number is where each stood in the day's order.

News

  • 45Israel's count gives Netanyahu's bloc 53 seats, Eisenkot's 48 and Arab-led parties a record 19; Netanyahu alleges fraudWith most votes counted, neither Netanyahu's bloc (53) nor Gadi Eisenkot's (48) reaches the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority.
  • 47Trump waiver of Russia sanctions for diesel deal draws congressional scrutinyTrump waiver of Russia sanctions for diesel deal draws congressional scrutiny
  • 48Hegseth and officials defend Trump's triumphal arch as national security need in courtHegseth and officials defend Trump's triumphal arch as national security need in court
  • 50Trump's renewed push to fire Lisa Cook looms over WarshTrump's renewed push to fire Lisa Cook looms over Warsh
  • 51Ethics experts say cabinet officials campaigning may break Hatch ActEthics experts say cabinet officials campaigning may break Hatch Act
  • 52Marquette: Trump approval falls to 38%Marquette: Trump approval falls to 38%
  • 53Trump rallies in Ohio for Husted and GOP ticketTrump rallies in Ohio for Husted and GOP ticket
  • 54Obama rallies for Ossoff and Bottoms in GeorgiaObama rallies for Ossoff and Bottoms in Georgia
  • 55Keisha Lance Bottoms' Georgia governor bid and final poll leadKeisha Lance Bottoms' Georgia governor bid and final poll lead

Election related

  • 46Only 43% of voters say their own House member deserves reelection, a Gallup record lowA Gallup poll released less than a week before the midterms finds only 43% of voters think their own representative deserves reelection, the lowest in Gallup's history of asking.
  • 49Critics say DOJ's pre-election flurry breaks precedent and interferes with midtermsCritics say DOJ's pre-election flurry breaks precedent and interferes with midterms

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