Netanyahu rejects Trump's 15-point Gaza plan, says troops stay until Hamas disarms

1worldGaza

Netanyahu rejects Trump's 15-point Gaza plan, says troops stay until Hamas disarms

Israel's leader publicly refused the swap at the center of the deal his own government signed onto last month: Hamas gives up its guns while Israeli forces pull back.

What the 15-point plan was supposed to do: Trump's Board of Peace, the body that oversees the deal, announced it in July 2026 — about three weeks before Netanyahu's public rejection. The plan pairs the handover of Hamas weapons with an Israeli pullout at the same time, not one after the other. It also calls for a Palestinian authority to govern Gaza. Netanyahu rejected that along with the weapons terms. The U.S. sends Israel about $3.8 billion a year in military aid, under a 10-year agreement signed in 2016 under Barack Obama. That gives Washington leverage it has rarely used in public.

ContextNetanyahu has broken with a U.S. president in public before. In March 2015 he spoke to Congress against Obama's Iran deal, an appearance set up with Speaker John Boehner without telling the White House. This time is different. Trump's team had announced the Gaza agreement as settled, so the fight is over a deal Israel appeared to have already accepted. Netanyahu's governing coalition is narrow, and his far-right partners have threatened to bring it down over any Gaza withdrawal.

THE HILL5 sources

2us

Ohio Republicans miss the deadline to replace Max Miller, locking him onto the November ballot

The withdrawal cutoff passed Saturday, Aug. 8 with Max Miller (Rep-R Ohio) — accused of domestic abuse and unopposed in the May 5 primary — refusing to quit; Democrat Brian Poindexter (D-OH) is the only other name on the ballot.

What the missed deadline actually forecloses: Had Miller withdrawn in time, Ohio law would have handed the replacement pick to the district's Republican central committee — party officials, not voters. A write-in is the only remaining Republican alternative, and write-ins essentially never win House seats: the last to do it was Ron Packard, a California Republican, in 1982. The House cannot refuse to seat a winner over allegations. Expulsion takes a two-thirds vote and has happened six times in the chamber's history, most recently George Santos (Rep-R New York), 311-114, in December 2023.

ContextMiller, who has represented Ohio's 7th Congressional District since January 2023, is seeking a third term. He faced no opponent in the May 5 Republican primary. After the Saturday, Aug. 8 withdrawal cutoff passed, the November ballot was left with two named candidates: Miller and Democrat Brian Poindexter.

AXIOS4 sources

3not newsuscontestedVoter-roll checks

Senate leaves for August without voting on Trump's voting bill, seven short of the 60 it needed

The president's top elections priority never reached the floor, and senators went home for a month without putting a vote on the fall calendar.

The numbers, and the four Democrats who voted yes in the House: About 21.3 million voting-age citizens — roughly 9% of everyone old enough to vote — cannot quickly find a birth certificate, passport, or naturalization papers, per a 2023 Brennan Center and VoteRiders survey. Only about half of American adults hold a valid passport, so for most people the document in question is a birth certificate held in another state's records office. Ed Case (Rep-D Hawaii) — voted for the House version Henry Cuellar (Rep-D Texas) — voted for the House version Jared Golden (Rep-D Maine) — voted for the House version Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Rep-D Washington) — voted for the House version

ContextThe bill grew out of the SAVE Act, which the House passed 220-208 on April 10, 2025, with four Democrats joining every Republican. It would rewrite the National Voter Registration Act of 1993, the "motor voter" law that lets people register at the DMV or by mail. Trump ordered a similar requirement by executive order on March 25, 2025 — a directive from the president, not a law passed by Congress. A federal judge blocked the registration piece weeks later. That is why supporters want the rule written into law instead.

NEW YORK TIMES1 source

News news2 stories

Ongoing2 earlier updates11 days

This story has run 3 times over 11 days, starting Jul 30.

Jul 30Trump says Hamas agreed to phased disarmament in Gaza; Israel remains skeptical
Aug 4Israel raises ‘serious security concerns’ over Hamas disarmament deal
Aug 10Netanyahu rejects Trump's 15-point Gaza plan, says troops stay until Hamas disarms — this issue

THE HILLGaza

Netanyahu rejects Trump's 15-point Gaza plan, says troops stay until Hamas disarms

Israel's leader turned down the trade at the heart of a deal his own government agreed to last month: Hamas gives up its guns while Israeli troops pull back.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday, Aug. 9, that Israel will not accept Donald Trump's plan for Gaza. The plan would take Hamas's weapons away and set up a Palestinian body to govern the territory. "I have heard people saying: 'You didn't say it.' So here I am saying it again: Israel does not accept" the plan, he said. He added that Israeli troops will not leave Gaza until Hamas is "genuinely" disarmed. The plan came from Trump's Board of Peace, the group that oversees the deal. It announced an agreement last month built on a single trade: Hamas hands over its guns at the same moment Israeli troops leave. Netanyahu's objection is the order. He wants Hamas stripped of weapons first and the pullout only after — the reverse of what the American plan calls for.

What the 15-point plan was supposed to doTrump's Board of Peace, the body that oversees the deal, announced it in July 2026 — about three weeks before Netanyahu's public…4 details

Trump's Board of Peace, the body that oversees the deal, announced it in July 2026 — about three weeks before Netanyahu's public rejection.
The plan pairs the handover of Hamas weapons with an Israeli pullout at the same time, not one after the other.
It also calls for a Palestinian authority to govern Gaza. Netanyahu rejected that along with the weapons terms.
The U.S. sends Israel about $3.8 billion a year in military aid, under a 10-year agreement signed in 2016 under Barack Obama. That gives Washington leverage it has rarely used in public.

Ohio Republicans miss the deadline to replace Max Miller, locking him onto the November ballot

The withdrawal cutoff passed Saturday, Aug. 8 with Max Miller (Rep-R Ohio) — accused of domestic abuse and unopposed in the May 5 primary — refusing to quit; Democrat Brian Poindexter (D-OH) is the only other name on the ballot.

Miller will remain in the race after the Saturday, Aug. 8 withdrawal cutoff passed without a withdrawal. He denies the domestic abuse claims and has resisted calls from other Republicans to end his campaign for a third term. Miller faced no opponent in the May 5 Republican primary; Democrat Brian Poindexter is the other named candidate for Ohio's 7th Congressional District in November.

What the missed deadline actually foreclosesHad Miller withdrawn in time, Ohio law would have handed the replacement pick to the district's Republican central committee —…3 details

Had Miller withdrawn in time, Ohio law would have handed the replacement pick to the district's Republican central committee — party officials, not voters.
A write-in is the only remaining Republican alternative, and write-ins essentially never win House seats: the last to do it was Ron Packard, a California Republican, in 1982.
The House cannot refuse to seat a winner over allegations. Expulsion takes a two-thirds vote and has happened six times in the chamber's history, most recently George Santos (Rep-R New York), 311-114, in December 2023.

Two escape hatches, both nearly impossible

2 views

Quick bites4

China's consumer prices rose at the slowest pace since January on weak demand
WSJ
China's consumer and factory-gate prices both grew more slowly than economists expected in July, with consumer inflation at its weakest pace since January.

Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade

NYT Iran war

The New York Times reports that Iran will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until Washington unfreezes its assets, lifts sanctions and ends the naval blockade.

Ongoing5

This story has run 6 times over 18 days, starting Jul 23.

Jul 23Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
Jul 28Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
Aug 4Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
Aug 5Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
Aug 9Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
Aug 10Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade — this issue

Chart

However you price it, Iran's ask is spent inside four months

About 20 million barrels a day moved through Hormuz, and Iran's frozen assets are put at $100–120 billion — an estimate the reporting itself calls contested. Each bar runs from the day the value of the undelivered oil reaches $100 billion to the day it reaches $120 billion; the heavier row is the $80-a-barrel price the story assumes. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions, not a forecast, and nothing in it says the strait stays shut.

The numbers

However you price it, Iran's ask is spent inside four months
Days after the strait closes	Days to cover the ask	Note
$60 a barrel	83–100	$1.2 billion a day
$80 a barrel	63–75	$1.6 billion a day — the price the story assumes
$100 a barrel	50–60	$2.0 billion a day
$140 a barrel	36–43	$2.8 billion a day

Chart · pipeline render▲ label over mark

How fast a Hormuz closure costs more than Iran's frozen assets

Former CIA officers go public to warn Trump is dismantling democratic guardrails
FT
Former CIA officers and other ex-national security officials are speaking out publicly to say Trump is weakening the checks that limit a president, the Financial Times reports. The account names no official and points to no single order, firing, or agency.
Florida AG opens fraud and public nuisance probe into Fauci, arguing a federal pardon cannot block state charges
THE HILL Fauci investigations
Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier (Sec-R Florida) said his office is weighing fraud, deceptive trade practices, and public nuisance claims against Dr. Anthony Fauci over his pandemic conduct. He gave no specifics on Fox's "Sunday Morning Futures," and no case has been filed.

Elections10 races

The midterms · 85 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 89%, Kalshi 85%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 46%, Kalshi 46%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 84.5–88.5%

89%85%chance Democrats take it · 4.0pp apart · both venues up this week

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 89% and Kalshi 85%.

U.S. Senate — Republicans retain it, 54.5%

46%46%chance Democrats take it · the same price on both · no clear move — the venues went opposite ways

U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 46% and Kalshi 46%.

No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only

Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.

two venues, priced separately
shaded = how far apart they are
50% — control flips here
where it stood 7 days ago
the last 7 days, on its own scale
week panel: one line a party

The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.

Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.

The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 4.0pp gap / 0.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.

Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”

Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

PolymarketU.S. House · todayWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Democratic control89%

Republican, implied11%

volume$5.2M

7-day move+2.0pp

KalshiU.S. House · todayWill Democrats win the House in 2026?

Democratic control85%

Republican, implied15%

volume8.9M contracts

bid / ask84% / 85%

7-day move+1.5pp

PolymarketU.S. Senate · todayWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Democratic control46%

Republican, implied54%

volume$2.2M

7-day move+1.0pp

KalshiU.S. Senate · todayWill Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?

Democratic control46%

Republican, implied54%

volume2.9M contracts

bid / ask45% / 46%

7-day move-0.5pp

Probability that Democrats control each chamber, as each venue prices it, by day.
Day	U.S. House · Polymarket	U.S. House · Kalshi	U.S. Senate · Polymarket	U.S. Senate · Kalshi
7 days ago	87%	83%	45%	46%
6 days ago	87%	83%	45%	47%
5 days ago	88%	83%	46%	47%
4 days ago	88%	84%	46%	44%
3 days ago	88%	83%	46%	47%
2 days ago	89%	85%	46%	46%
yesterday	89%	85%	46%	46%
today	89%	85%	46%	46%

3 closest races

kOhio SenateBrown vs. HustedBrown51.5%Husted51.5%books split

POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the only race here where the two venues do not agree on who is ahead.

The books name different leaders

Ohio Senate

Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.

Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp

Ohio Senate. Lead in percentage points, positive to Jon Husted. Kalshi: Husted ahead by 3 points. Polymarket: Brown ahead by 2 points. Every day is in the table below.

today

Husted+3%Kalshi
Brown+2%Polymarket

Husted49.5%Polymarket
Husted51.5%Kalshi
Brown51.5%Polymarket
Brown48.5%Kalshi

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

The lead is one candidate’s price minus the other’s, at the same venue on the same day — never one book’s Tuesday against the other’s Thursday. It is drawn only where a venue priced both candidates, so a line starts late rather than being stretched across days it was never quoted over.

A day inside a tenth of a point is printed as levelrather than being rounded onto somebody’s side: on a chart whose whole subject is who is in front, a dead heat shown as a win is the one error that cannot be recovered from the drawing.

The markets: Jon Husted Polymarket, Kalshi · Sherrod Brown Polymarket, Kalshi

Every price behind the chart, and the lead it produces. Ohio Senate, snapshot Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT.
Day	Husted · Polymarket	Brown · Polymarket	Lead · Polymarket	Husted · Kalshi	Brown · Kalshi	Lead · Kalshi
7 days ago	49.5%	50.5%	Brown +1%	47.0%	53.0%	Brown +6%
6 days ago	50.5%	51.5%	Brown +1%	48.0%	54.0%	Brown +6%
5 days ago	49.5%	51.5%	Brown +2%	48.0%	52.0%	Brown +4%
4 days ago	49.5%	51.5%	Brown +2%	48.0%	52.0%	Brown +4%
3 days ago	49.5%	51.5%	Brown +2%	48.0%	53.0%	Brown +5%
2 days ago	49.5%	51.5%	Brown +2%	50.0%	50.0%	level
yesterday	49.5%	51.5%	Brown +2%	52.0%	49.0%	Husted +3%
today	49.5%	51.5%	Brown +2%	51.5%	48.5%	Husted +3%

gTexas SenateKen Paxton 50.5%▲2.5James Talarico 49.5%

POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

Ken Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D).

A dead heat — the two sides are priced within a point of each other, after the Republican side lost about three points in a week.

Two markets, one question

Texas Senate

Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Texas Senate. Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 50.5%; James Talarico (D): Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 49.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Ken Paxton 51% · James Talarico 50%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Ken Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$373K51.5%

Kalshi4.3M contracts · 50%/51%55.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

James Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$312K48.5%

Kalshi3.4M contracts · 49%/50%46.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT.
Day	Ken Paxton · Polymarket	Ken Paxton · Kalshi	James Talarico · Polymarket	James Talarico · Kalshi
7 days ago	51.5%	55.0%	48.5%	46.0%
6 days ago	51.5%	55.0%	48.5%	47.0%
5 days ago	51.5%	55.0%	49.5%	47.0%
4 days ago	51.5%	52.0%	49.5%	49.0%
3 days ago	50.5%	52.0%	50.5%	49.0%
2 days ago	50.5%	52.0%	49.5%	49.0%
yesterday	50.5%	51.0%	49.5%	51.0%
today	50.5%	50.5%	49.5%	49.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

eOhio governorVivek Ramaswamy 51.5%▲2.5Amy Acton 47.8%

POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

Vivek Ramaswamy (R) faces Amy Acton (D).

Ohio is choosing a new governor, and it is a dead heat — the two sides are priced within four points of each other.

Two markets, one question

Ohio governor

Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Ohio governor. Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 52.5%, Kalshi 50.5%; Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 46.0%, Kalshi 49.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Vivek Ramaswamy 51% · Amy Acton 49%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Vivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$57.5K56%

Kalshi570K contracts · 50%/51%53%

venue gap3.0pp

7-day move-3.5pp

Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$59.9K44%

Kalshi376K contracts · 49%/50%49%

venue gap5.0pp

7-day move+2.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT.
Day	Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket	Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi	Amy Acton · Polymarket	Amy Acton · Kalshi
7 days ago	56.0%	53.0%	44%	49.0%
6 days ago	56.0%	51.0%	44%	48.0%
5 days ago	55.5%	52.0%	45%	47.0%
4 days ago	55.5%	51.0%	45%	50.0%
3 days ago	55.5%	50.0%	45%	50.0%
2 days ago	52.5%	51.0%	46%	50.0%
yesterday	52.5%	50.0%	46%	49.0%
today	52.5%	50.5%	46%	49.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 7 races10 races · 10 still in doubt · Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate4 of 6

hAlaska SenateMary Peltola 53.5%▲1.4Dan Sullivan 47.3%

POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a narrow lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

Two markets, one question

Alaska Senate

Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 52.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 48.5%, Kalshi 46.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 53% · Dan Sullivan 48%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Mary Peltola (D)7 days ago

Polymarket$187K55.5%

Kalshi48.9K contracts · 52%/57%54.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-3.0pp

Dan Sullivan (R)7 days ago

Polymarket$113K44.5%

Kalshi53.2K contracts · 44%/48%47.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move+4.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT.
Day	Mary Peltola · Polymarket	Mary Peltola · Kalshi	Dan Sullivan · Polymarket	Dan Sullivan · Kalshi
7 days ago	55.5%	54.0%	44.5%	47%
6 days ago	51.5%	57.0%	49.5%	43%
5 days ago	52.5%	57.0%	49.0%	44%
4 days ago	52.5%	57.0%	48.5%	49%
3 days ago	52.5%	57.0%	48.5%	48%
2 days ago	52.5%	57.0%	48.5%	48%
yesterday	52.5%	57.0%	48.5%	48%
today	52.5%	54.5%	48.5%	46%

iIowa Senateone bookAshley Hinson 64.5%▲8.3Josh Turek 35.0%

KALSHI: Iowa Senate — general election

Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

An open seat, with no incumbent running, and Hinson holds a commanding lead after Turek lost about eleven points in six days — on by far the thinnest market here.

Two markets, one question

Iowa Senate

Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT
one venue only

Kalshi, dashed

Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Kalshi 64.5%; Josh Turek (D): Kalshi 35%. Full history is in the table below.

Day6 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 5–7 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.

Ashley Hinson (R)6 days ago

Kalshi3.6K contracts · 63%/66%—

venue gap—

7-day move+5.5pp

Josh Turek (D)6 days ago

Kalshi7.5K contracts · 33%/37%46%

venue gap—

7-day move-11pp

Every sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT.
Day	Ashley Hinson · Kalshi	Josh Turek · Kalshi
6 days ago	—	46%
5 days ago	—	41%
4 days ago	59.0%	48%
3 days ago	62.0%	38%
2 days ago	67.0%	35%
yesterday	66.0%	33%
today	64.5%	35%

fMaine SenateTroy Jackson 66.5%Susan Collins 34.5%

POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Maine Senate

Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 68.5%, Kalshi 64.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 66% · Susan Collins 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$709K67.5%

Kalshi1.8M contracts · 64%/65%64.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Susan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$420K33.5%

Kalshi2.0M contracts · 36%/37%35.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT.
Day	Troy Jackson · Polymarket	Troy Jackson · Kalshi	Susan Collins · Polymarket	Susan Collins · Kalshi
7 days ago	67.5%	64.0%	33.5%	35.0%
6 days ago	67.5%	64.0%	33.5%	37.0%
5 days ago	68.5%	63.0%	32.5%	37.0%
4 days ago	68.5%	64.0%	32.5%	37.0%
3 days ago	68.5%	64.0%	32.5%	37.0%
2 days ago	68.5%	64.0%	32.5%	37.0%
yesterday	68.5%	65.0%	32.5%	36.0%
today	68.5%	64.5%	32.5%	36.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

jMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 57.0%▲9.6Mike Rogers 43.5%

POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

The Democratic side holds a clear lead after losing about ten points in a week.

Two markets, one question

Michigan Senate

Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 5.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 5.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 56% · Mike Rogers 45%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$150K66.5%

Kalshi366K contracts · 54%/55%68.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-7.0pp

Mike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$140K34.5%

Kalshi717K contracts · 45%/46%34.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move+7.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT.
Day	Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket	Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi	Mike Rogers · Polymarket	Mike Rogers · Kalshi
7 days ago	66.5%	68.0%	34.5%	34.0%
6 days ago	60.5%	64.0%	40.5%	36.0%
5 days ago	61.5%	63.0%	38.5%	38.0%
4 days ago	59.5%	59.0%	41.5%	42.0%
3 days ago	60.5%	58.0%	41.5%	44.0%
2 days ago	59.5%	58.0%	41.5%	43.0%
yesterday	59.5%	56.0%	41.5%	44.0%
today	59.5%	54.5%	41.5%	45.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors3 of 4

mGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 58.0%▲0.4Rick Jackson 42.0%

POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Georgia governor

Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 57% · Rick Jackson 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$29.0K59%

Kalshi234K contracts · 56%/57%59%

venue gap0.0pp

7-day move+0.5pp

Rick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$31.7K41%

Kalshi260K contracts · 43%/44%43%

venue gap2.0pp

7-day move-0.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT.
Day	Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket	Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi	Rick Jackson · Polymarket	Rick Jackson · Kalshi
7 days ago	59.0%	59.0%	41.0%	43.0%
6 days ago	59.0%	59.0%	41.0%	43.0%
5 days ago	59.5%	59.0%	40.5%	43.0%
4 days ago	59.5%	59.0%	40.5%	43.0%
3 days ago	59.5%	58.0%	40.5%	43.0%
2 days ago	59.5%	58.0%	40.5%	43.0%
yesterday	59.5%	58.0%	40.5%	43.0%
today	59.5%	56.5%	40.5%	43.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

nNevada governorAaron Ford 53.8%▲1.8Joe Lombardo 46.3%

POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

Aaron Ford (D) faces Joe Lombardo (R).

Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead.

Two markets, one question

Nevada governor

Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Nevada governor. Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 52.0%, Kalshi 55.5%; Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 48.0%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.

Money-weighted: Aaron Ford 55% · Joe Lombardo 45%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Aaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$11.8K55%

Kalshi108K contracts · 55%/56%—

venue gap—

7-day move-3.0pp

Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$33.5K45.5%

Kalshi162K contracts · 44%/45%—

venue gap—

7-day move+2.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT.
Day	Aaron Ford · Polymarket	Aaron Ford · Kalshi	Joe Lombardo · Polymarket	Joe Lombardo · Kalshi
7 days ago	55.0%	—	45.5%	—
6 days ago	52.5%	—	48.0%	44.0%
5 days ago	52.0%	57.0%	48.0%	43.0%
4 days ago	52.0%	57.0%	48.0%	45.0%
3 days ago	52.0%	55.0%	48.0%	48.0%
2 days ago	52.0%	55.0%	48.0%	44.0%
yesterday	52.0%	56.0%	48.0%	44.0%
today	52.0%	55.5%	48.0%	44.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

lWisconsin governorTom Tiffany 60.8%▲7.8Francesca Hong 39.3%

POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

Tom Tiffany (R) leads the unresolved Republican primary; Francesca Hong (D) leads the unresolved Democratic primary.

An open governorship, and neither nomination is official yet, though the market already treats both as decided — the Republican side gained about eight points in a week.

General election wintwo venues

Tom Tiffany^* (R)party contract60.0%61.5%1.5pp apart

The whole field

Wisconsin Republican primary

Every candidate the venue lists, replayed across the window it has priced. Bars are linear, so a 0.05% long shot is a hairline — that is what the market thinks of them.

Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT
8 candidates listed

Wisconsin Republican primary on today, priced by Kalshi: Tom Tiffany 99.4%, Andy Manske 0.5%, Bryan Steil 0.05%, Eric Hovde 0.05%, Josh Schoemann 0.05%, Patrick Testin 0.05%, Rebecca Kleefisch 0.05%, Tommy Thompson 0.05%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

Tom Tiffany99.4%

Andy Manske0.5%

Bryan Steil0.05%

Eric Hovde0.05%

Josh Schoemann0.05%

Patrick Testin0.05%

Rebecca Kleefisch0.05%

Tommy Thompson0.05%

Daytoday

Biggest moves over the window (Kalshi): Andy Manske -1.5pp · Tom Tiffany -0.3pp · leading on today: Tom Tiffany at 99.4%.

A candidate with no sample on the selected day is shown as not priced and dropped to the bottom rather than carried forward from an earlier day. Venues list candidates on different dates, so the field genuinely grows and shrinks across the window.

Wisconsin Republican primary — Kalshiprice by day, plus the other venue’s price today.
Candidate	5 days ago	4 days ago	3 days ago	2 days ago	yesterday	today	Other venue, today	Volume
Tom Tiffany	—	99.7%	98%	98%	99.9%	99.4%	—	19.2K contracts
Andy Manske	2.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	0.5%	—	3.9K contracts
Bryan Steil	—	—	—	—	0.1%	0.05%	—	1.5K contracts
Eric Hovde	—	—	—	—	0.1%	0.05%	—	1.4K contracts
Josh Schoemann	—	—	—	—	0.1%	0.05%	—	1.5K contracts
Patrick Testin	—	—	—	—	0.1%	0.05%	—	1.1K contracts
Rebecca Kleefisch	—	—	—	—	0.1%	0.05%	—	1.8K contracts
Tommy Thompson	—	—	—	—	0.1%	0.05%	—	5.9K contracts

Wisconsin Republican primaryNomination odds · Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT

Tom Tiffany (R)99.4%-0.3pp

Andy Manske (R)0.5%-1.5pp

Bryan Steil (R)0.05%-0.1pp

Eric Hovde (R)0.05%-0.1pp

Josh Schoemann (R)0.05%-0.1pp

Patrick Testin (R)0.05%-0.1pp

Rebecca Kleefisch (R)0.05%-0.1pp

Tommy Thompson (R)0.05%-0.1pp

Francesca Hong^* (D)party contract41.0%37.5%3.5pp apart

The whole field

Wisconsin Democratic primary

Every candidate the venue lists, replayed across the window it has priced. Bars are linear, so a 0.05% long shot is a hairline — that is what the market thinks of them.

Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT
8 candidates listed

Wisconsin Democratic primary on today, priced by Kalshi: Francesca Hong 96%, David Crowley 4.3%, Brett Hulsey 0.1%, Kelda Roys 0.1%, Joel Brennan 0.05%, Josh Kaul 0.05%, Sara Rodriguez 0.05%, Tony Evers 0.05%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

Francesca Hong96%

David Crowley4.3%

Brett Hulsey0.1%

Kelda Roys0.1%

Joel Brennan0.05%

Josh Kaul0.05%

Sara Rodriguez0.05%

Tony Evers0.05%

Daytoday

Biggest moves over the window (Kalshi): Francesca Hong -0.4pp · Kelda Roys -0.3pp · leading on today: Francesca Hong at 96%.

Wisconsin Democratic primary — Kalshiprice by day, plus the other venue’s price today.
Candidate	7 days ago	6 days ago	5 days ago	4 days ago	3 days ago	2 days ago	yesterday	today	Other venue, today	Volume
Francesca Hong	96%	95%	81%	90%	91%	94%	96%	96%	—	1.6M contracts
David Crowley	4.0%	4.6%	17%	9.8%	9.0%	6.0%	3.8%	4.3%	—	1.1M contracts
Brett Hulsey	—	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	—	15.4K contracts
Kelda Roys	0.4%	0.5%	0.4%	0.2%	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	—	273K contracts
Joel Brennan	—	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.05%	—	128K contracts
Josh Kaul	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.05%	—	13.5K contracts
Sara Rodriguez	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.05%	—	371K contracts
Tony Evers	—	—	—	—	—	0.1%	0.1%	0.05%	—	16.8K contracts

No 7-day series from Kalshi for Josh Kaul, Sara Rodriguez— they only appear at “today”.

Wisconsin Democratic primaryNomination odds · Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT

Francesca Hong (D)96%-0.4pp

David Crowley (D)4.3%+0.2pp

Brett Hulsey (D)0.1%0pp

Kelda Roys (D)0.1%-0.3pp

Joel Brennan (D)0.05%-0.1pp

Josh Kaul (D)0.05%7D —

Sara Rodriguez (D)0.05%7D —

Tony Evers (D)0.05%-0.1pp

* Current primary leader; nomination not settled. General-election odds above may price the party rather than the person.

Two markets, one question

Wisconsin governor

Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Wisconsin governor. Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 60.0%, Kalshi 61.5%; Francesca Hong (D): Polymarket 41.0%, Kalshi 37.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Tom Tiffany 61% · Francesca Hong 38%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Tom Tiffany (R)*7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$76.5K53%

Kalshi173K contracts · 61%/62%53%

venue gap0.0pp

7-day move+7.0pp

Francesca Hong (D)*7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$52.9K43.5%

Kalshi211K contracts · 37%/38%48.0%

venue gap4.5pp

7-day move-2.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT.
Day	Tom Tiffany · Polymarket	Tom Tiffany · Kalshi	Francesca Hong · Polymarket	Francesca Hong · Kalshi
7 days ago	53.0%	53.0%	43.5%	48.0%
6 days ago	56.5%	52.0%	44.5%	48.0%
5 days ago	57.5%	56.0%	41.5%	45.0%
4 days ago	59.5%	60.0%	41.0%	41.0%
3 days ago	59.5%	60.0%	41.5%	40.0%
2 days ago	59.5%	61.0%	41.5%	39.0%
yesterday	60.0%	62.0%	41.0%	40.0%
today	60.0%	61.5%	41.0%	37.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Not news news1 story

NEW YORK TIMES

Senate leaves for August without voting on Trump's voting bill, seven short of the 60 it needed

The president's top elections bill never came up for a vote, and senators left for a month without scheduling one for the fall.

Senators left Washington for their month-long August break without ever voting on the SAVE America Act, President Trump's top elections bill. It would require anyone registering to vote in a federal election to show a document proving U.S. citizenship: a passport, a birth certificate, or naturalization papers. Today a person registering signs a sworn statement that they are a citizen, and lying on it is a federal crime that carries prison time, plus deportation for noncitizens. Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats. Ending a filibuster — the delay tactic that lets the losing side block a bill unless 60 senators vote to move on — takes 60, and no Democrat offered to close the gap. Majority Leader John Thune (Sen-R South Dakota) had said for weeks that the votes were not there. The departure was reported Saturday, Aug. 8, and confirmed what had been clear since the spring.

The numbers, and the four Democrats who voted yes in the HouseAbout 21.3 million voting-age citizens — roughly 9% of everyone old enough to vote — cannot quickly find a birth certificate,…6 details

About 21.3 million voting-age citizens — roughly 9% of everyone old enough to vote — cannot quickly find a birth certificate, passport, or naturalization papers, per a 2023 Brennan Center and VoteRiders survey.
Only about half of American adults hold a valid passport, so for most people the document in question is a birth certificate held in another state's records office.
Ed Case (Rep-D Hawaii) — voted for the House version
Henry Cuellar (Rep-D Texas) — voted for the House version
Jared Golden (Rep-D Maine) — voted for the House version
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Rep-D Washington) — voted for the House version

Chart

The House voted 220–208

12-vote margin, out of 428 votes cast.

YesNo

The numbers

The House voted 220–208
Votes	Yes	No
House roll call	220 votes	208 votes

Red take

Registration today turns on a signed sworn statement, checked only after the fact; the House judged that insufficient and passed the measure 220-208 on April 10, 2025, with four Democrats joining. Republicans hold 53 seats and the bill never reached the floor, so the case for verifying citizenship at the point of registration rather than prosecuting it afterward was never tested by a vote.

Blue take

A 2023 Brennan Center and VoteRiders survey puts 21.3 million voting-age citizens — roughly 9% — beyond quick reach of a birth certificate, passport, or naturalization papers, and only about half of adults hold a valid passport. The burden of the change falls on those citizens, retrieving records from another state's office, to police conduct that already carries prison time and deportation.

Netanyahu rejects Trump's 15-point Gaza plan, says troops stay until Hamas disarms

Ohio Republicans miss the deadline to replace Max Miller, locking him onto the November ballot

Senate leaves for August without voting on Trump's voting bill, seven short of the 60 it needed

Aug 102026

Executive summary3 stories

News news2

Not news news1

News news2 stories

Netanyahu rejects Trump's 15-point Gaza plan, says troops stay until Hamas disarms

Israel's leader turned down the trade at the heart of a deal his own government agreed to last month: Hamas gives up its guns while Israeli troops pull back.

Related reading

Ohio Republicans miss the deadline to replace Max Miller, locking him onto the November ballot

The withdrawal cutoff passed Saturday, Aug. 8 with Max Miller (Rep-R Ohio) — accused of domestic abuse and unopposed in the May 5 primary — refusing to quit; Democrat Brian Poindexter (D-OH) is the only other name on the ballot.

Related reading

Quick bites4

China's consumer prices rose at the slowest pace since January on weak demand

Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade

However you price it, Iran's ask is spent inside four months

How fast a Hormuz closure costs more than Iran's frozen assets

Former CIA officers go public to warn Trump is dismantling democratic guardrails

Florida AG opens fraud and public nuisance probe into Fauci, arguing a federal pardon cannot block state charges

Elections10 races

D or R take the House / Senate?

Ohio Senate

Texas Senate

Ohio governor

Senate4 of 6

Alaska Senate

Iowa Senate

Maine Senate

Michigan Senate

Governors3 of 4

Georgia governor

Nevada governor

Wisconsin governor

Not news news1 story

Senate leaves for August without voting on Trump's voting bill, seven short of the 60 it needed

The president's top elections bill never came up for a vote, and senators left for a month without scheduling one for the fall.

The House voted 220–208

Netanyahu rejects Trump's 15-point Gaza plan, says troops stay until Hamas disarms

Ohio Republicans miss the deadline to replace Max Miller, locking him onto the November ballot

Senate leaves for August without voting on Trump's voting bill, seven short of the 60 it needed

Aug 102026

Executive summary3 stories

News news2

Not news news1

News news2 stories

Israel's leader turned down the trade at the heart of a deal his own government agreed to last month: Hamas gives up its guns while Israeli troops pull back.

Related reading

SEMI-RELATEDIsrael accused of using archaeology to take West Bank land

The withdrawal cutoff passed Saturday, Aug. 8 with Max Miller (Rep-R Ohio) — accused of domestic abuse and unopposed in the May 5 primary — refusing to quit; Democrat Brian Poindexter (D-OH) is the only other name on the ballot.

Related reading

RELATEDMax Miller (Rep-R Ohio), accused of abuse, will not withdraw

SEMI-RELATEDJim Banks (Sen-R Indiana) calls the allegations against Miller deeply troubling

Quick bites4

China's consumer prices rose at the slowest pace since January on weak demand

Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade

However you price it, Iran's ask is spent inside four months

How fast a Hormuz closure costs more than Iran's frozen assets

Former CIA officers go public to warn Trump is dismantling democratic guardrails

Florida AG opens fraud and public nuisance probe into Fauci, arguing a federal pardon cannot block state charges

Elections10 racesShowHide

D or R take the House / Senate?

Ohio Senate

Texas Senate

Ohio governor

Senate4 of 6

Alaska Senate

Iowa Senate

Maine Senate

Michigan Senate

Governors3 of 4

Georgia governor

Nevada governor

Wisconsin governor

Not news news1 story

The president's top elections bill never came up for a vote, and senators left for a month without scheduling one for the fall.

The House voted 220–208

Elections10 races