News news2 stories
Ongoing2 earlier updates11 days
This story has run 3 times over 11 days, starting Jul 30.
- Trump says Hamas agreed to phased disarmament in Gaza; Israel remains skeptical
- Israel raises ‘serious security concerns’ over Hamas disarmament deal
- Netanyahu rejects Trump's 15-point Gaza plan, says troops stay until Hamas disarms — this issue
Israel's leader turned down the trade at the heart of a deal his own government agreed to last month: Hamas gives up its guns while Israeli troops pull back.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday, Aug. 9, that Israel will not accept Donald Trump's plan for Gaza. The plan would take Hamas's weapons away and set up a Palestinian body to govern the territory. "I have heard people saying: 'You didn't say it.' So here I am saying it again: Israel does not accept" the plan, he said. He added that Israeli troops will not leave Gaza until Hamas is "genuinely" disarmed. The plan came from Trump's Board of Peace, the group that oversees the deal. It announced an agreement last month built on a single trade: Hamas hands over its guns at the same moment Israeli troops leave. Netanyahu's objection is the order. He wants Hamas stripped of weapons first and the pullout only after — the reverse of what the American plan calls for.
What the 15-point plan was supposed to do
- Trump's Board of Peace, the body that oversees the deal, announced it in July 2026 — about three weeks before Netanyahu's public rejection.
- The plan pairs the handover of Hamas weapons with an Israeli pullout at the same time, not one after the other.
- It also calls for a Palestinian authority to govern Gaza. Netanyahu rejected that along with the weapons terms.
- The U.S. sends Israel about $3.8 billion a year in military aid, under a 10-year agreement signed in 2016 under Barack Obama. That gives Washington leverage it has rarely used in public.
Related reading
Read more about: Israel accused of using archaeology to take West Bank land
While the Gaza pullout stalls, Israel is planning large-scale land seizures around Palestinian archaeological sites in the occupied West Bank, a BBC investigation found. It looked at how those sites are designated and who manages them. That is the other half of the land question any peace deal has to answer.
The withdrawal cutoff passed Saturday, Aug. 8 with Max Miller (Rep-R Ohio) — accused of domestic abuse and unopposed in the May 5 primary — refusing to quit; Democrat Brian Poindexter (D-OH) is the only other name on the ballot.
Miller will remain in the race after the Saturday, Aug. 8 withdrawal cutoff passed without a withdrawal. He denies the domestic abuse claims and has resisted calls from other Republicans to end his campaign for a third term. Miller faced no opponent in the May 5 Republican primary; Democrat Brian Poindexter is the other named candidate for Ohio's 7th Congressional District in November.
What the missed deadline actually forecloses
- Had Miller withdrawn in time, Ohio law would have handed the replacement pick to the district's Republican central committee — party officials, not voters.
- A write-in is the only remaining Republican alternative, and write-ins essentially never win House seats: the last to do it was Ron Packard, a California Republican, in 1982.
- The House cannot refuse to seat a winner over allegations. Expulsion takes a two-thirds vote and has happened six times in the chamber's history, most recently George Santos (Rep-R New York), 311-114, in December 2023.
Related reading
Miller's spokeswoman confirmed that he would remain in the race as Ohio's Saturday, Aug. 8 withdrawal cutoff passed.
Mr. Miller, who has faced pressure from fellow Republicans to end his campaign, will stay in the race, a spokeswoman said.
Read more about: Jim Banks (Sen-R Indiana) calls the allegations against Miller deeply troubling
Banks addressed the domestic abuse allegations and joined Republican calls for Miller to resign.
Sen. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) on Sunday said allegations against GOP Rep. Max Miller (Ohio) are 'deeply troubling.'
Quick bites4
China's consumer prices rose at the slowest pace since January on weak demand
WSJChina's consumer and factory-gate prices both grew more slowly than economists expected in July, with consumer inflation at its weakest pace since January.
Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
NYTIran warThe New York Times reports that Iran will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until Washington unfreezes its assets, lifts sanctions and ends the naval blockade.
Ongoing5
This story has run 6 times over 18 days, starting Jul 23.
- Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
- Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
- Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
- Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
- Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
- Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade — this issue
Four bars, one for each assumed oil price, each spanning the days over which the value of oil not moving through the Strait of Hormuz — 20 million barrels a day at that price — passes $100 billion and then $120 billion, the contested range given for Iran's frozen assets. At $60 a barrel that window is days 83 to 100; at $80 a barrel, the price the story assumes, days 63 to 75; at $100 a barrel, days 50 to 60; at $140 a barrel, days 36 to 43. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions, not a forecast.
ChartHowever you price it, Iran's ask is spent inside four months
About 20 million barrels a day moved through Hormuz, and Iran's frozen assets are put at $100–120 billion — an estimate the reporting itself calls contested. Each bar runs from the day the value of the undelivered oil reaches $100 billion to the day it reaches $120 billion; the heavier row is the $80-a-barrel price the story assumes. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions, not a forecast, and nothing in it says the strait stays shut.
The numbers
However you price it, Iran's ask is spent inside four months Days after the strait closes Days to cover the ask Note $60 a barrel 83–100 $1.2 billion a day $80 a barrel 63–75 $1.6 billion a day — the price the story assumes $100 a barrel 50–60 $2.0 billion a day $140 a barrel 36–43 $2.8 billion a day Chart · pipeline render▲ label over markHow fast a Hormuz closure costs more than Iran's frozen assets
Former CIA officers go public to warn Trump is dismantling democratic guardrails
FTFormer CIA officers and other ex-national security officials are speaking out publicly to say Trump is weakening the checks that limit a president, the Financial Times reports. The account names no official and points to no single order, firing, or agency.
Florida AG opens fraud and public nuisance probe into Fauci, arguing a federal pardon cannot block state charges
THE HILLFauci investigationsFlorida Attorney General James Uthmeier (Sec-R Florida) said his office is weighing fraud, deceptive trade practices, and public nuisance claims against Dr. Anthony Fauci over his pandemic conduct. He gave no specifics on Fox's "Sunday Morning Futures," and no case has been filed.
Elections10 races
The midterms · 85 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 89%, Kalshi 85%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 46%, Kalshi 46%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 4.0pp gap / 0.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 87% | 83% | 45% | 46% |
| 6 days ago | 87% | 83% | 45% | 47% |
| 5 days ago | 88% | 83% | 46% | 47% |
| 4 days ago | 88% | 84% | 46% | 44% |
| 3 days ago | 88% | 83% | 46% | 47% |
| 2 days ago | 89% | 85% | 46% | 46% |
| yesterday | 89% | 85% | 46% | 46% |
| today | 89% | 85% | 46% | 46% |
3 closest races
kOhio SenateBrown vs. HustedBrown51.5%Husted51.5%books split
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the only race here where the two venues do not agree on who is ahead.
The books name different leaders
Ohio Senate
Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.
Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0ppOhio Senate. Lead in percentage points, positive to Jon Husted. Kalshi: Husted ahead by 3 points. Polymarket: Brown ahead by 2 points. Every day is in the table below.
today
- Husted+3%Kalshi
- Brown+2%Polymarket
- Husted49.5%Polymarket
- Husted51.5%Kalshi
- Brown51.5%Polymarket
- Brown48.5%Kalshi
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
The lead is one candidate’s price minus the other’s, at the same venue on the same day — never one book’s Tuesday against the other’s Thursday. It is drawn only where a venue priced both candidates, so a line starts late rather than being stretched across days it was never quoted over.
A day inside a tenth of a point is printed as levelrather than being rounded onto somebody’s side: on a chart whose whole subject is who is in front, a dead heat shown as a win is the one error that cannot be recovered from the drawing.
The markets: Jon Husted Polymarket, Kalshi · Sherrod Brown Polymarket, Kalshi
Every price behind the chart, and the lead it produces. Ohio Senate, snapshot Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT. Day Husted · Polymarket Brown · Polymarket Lead · Polymarket Husted · Kalshi Brown · Kalshi Lead · Kalshi 7 days ago 49.5% 50.5% Brown +1% 47.0% 53.0% Brown +6% 6 days ago 50.5% 51.5% Brown +1% 48.0% 54.0% Brown +6% 5 days ago 49.5% 51.5% Brown +2% 48.0% 52.0% Brown +4% 4 days ago 49.5% 51.5% Brown +2% 48.0% 52.0% Brown +4% 3 days ago 49.5% 51.5% Brown +2% 48.0% 53.0% Brown +5% 2 days ago 49.5% 51.5% Brown +2% 50.0% 50.0% level yesterday 49.5% 51.5% Brown +2% 52.0% 49.0% Husted +3% today 49.5% 51.5% Brown +2% 51.5% 48.5% Husted +3% gTexas Senate
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
Ken Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D).
A dead heat — the two sides are priced within a point of each other, after the Republican side lost about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate
Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate. Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 50.5%; James Talarico (D): Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 49.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ken Paxton 51% · James Talarico 50%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ken Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$373K51.5%Kalshi4.3M contracts · 50%/51%55.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move-1.0ppJames Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$312K48.5%Kalshi3.4M contracts · 49%/50%46.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT. Day Ken Paxton · Polymarket Ken Paxton · Kalshi James Talarico · Polymarket James Talarico · Kalshi 7 days ago 51.5% 55.0% 48.5% 46.0% 6 days ago 51.5% 55.0% 48.5% 47.0% 5 days ago 51.5% 55.0% 49.5% 47.0% 4 days ago 51.5% 52.0% 49.5% 49.0% 3 days ago 50.5% 52.0% 50.5% 49.0% 2 days ago 50.5% 52.0% 49.5% 49.0% yesterday 50.5% 51.0% 49.5% 51.0% today 50.5% 50.5% 49.5% 49.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
eOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Vivek Ramaswamy (R) faces Amy Acton (D).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and it is a dead heat — the two sides are priced within four points of each other.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 52.5%, Kalshi 50.5%; Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 46.0%, Kalshi 49.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Vivek Ramaswamy 51% · Amy Acton 49%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$57.5K56%Kalshi570K contracts · 50%/51%53%venue gap3.0pp7-day move-3.5ppAmy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$59.9K44%Kalshi376K contracts · 49%/50%49%venue gap5.0pp7-day move+2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT. Day Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi 7 days ago 56.0% 53.0% 44% 49.0% 6 days ago 56.0% 51.0% 44% 48.0% 5 days ago 55.5% 52.0% 45% 47.0% 4 days ago 55.5% 51.0% 45% 50.0% 3 days ago 55.5% 50.0% 45% 50.0% 2 days ago 52.5% 51.0% 46% 50.0% yesterday 52.5% 50.0% 46% 49.0% today 52.5% 50.5% 46% 49.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 7 races
Senate4 of 6
hAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a narrow lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 52.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 48.5%, Kalshi 46.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 53% · Dan Sullivan 48%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$187K55.5%Kalshi48.9K contracts · 52%/57%54.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-3.0ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$113K44.5%Kalshi53.2K contracts · 44%/48%47.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+4.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 55.5% 54.0% 44.5% 47% 6 days ago 51.5% 57.0% 49.5% 43% 5 days ago 52.5% 57.0% 49.0% 44% 4 days ago 52.5% 57.0% 48.5% 49% 3 days ago 52.5% 57.0% 48.5% 48% 2 days ago 52.5% 57.0% 48.5% 48% yesterday 52.5% 57.0% 48.5% 48% today 52.5% 54.5% 48.5% 46% iIowa Senateone book
KALSHI: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and Hinson holds a commanding lead after Turek lost about eleven points in six days — on by far the thinnest market here.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT
one venue only- Kalshi, dashed
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Kalshi 64.5%; Josh Turek (D): Kalshi 35%. Full history is in the table below.
6 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 5–7 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Every sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Kalshi 6 days ago — 46% 5 days ago — 41% 4 days ago 59.0% 48% 3 days ago 62.0% 38% 2 days ago 67.0% 35% yesterday 66.0% 33% today 64.5% 35% fMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 68.5%, Kalshi 64.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 66% · Susan Collins 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$709K67.5%Kalshi1.8M contracts · 64%/65%64.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+1.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$420K33.5%Kalshi2.0M contracts · 36%/37%35.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 67.5% 64.0% 33.5% 35.0% 6 days ago 67.5% 64.0% 33.5% 37.0% 5 days ago 68.5% 63.0% 32.5% 37.0% 4 days ago 68.5% 64.0% 32.5% 37.0% 3 days ago 68.5% 64.0% 32.5% 37.0% 2 days ago 68.5% 64.0% 32.5% 37.0% yesterday 68.5% 65.0% 32.5% 36.0% today 68.5% 64.5% 32.5% 36.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
jMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a clear lead after losing about ten points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 5.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 5.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 56% · Mike Rogers 45%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$150K66.5%Kalshi366K contracts · 54%/55%68.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-7.0ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$140K34.5%Kalshi717K contracts · 45%/46%34.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+7.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 66.5% 68.0% 34.5% 34.0% 6 days ago 60.5% 64.0% 40.5% 36.0% 5 days ago 61.5% 63.0% 38.5% 38.0% 4 days ago 59.5% 59.0% 41.5% 42.0% 3 days ago 60.5% 58.0% 41.5% 44.0% 2 days ago 59.5% 58.0% 41.5% 43.0% yesterday 59.5% 56.0% 41.5% 44.0% today 59.5% 54.5% 41.5% 45.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors3 of 4
mGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 57% · Rick Jackson 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$29.0K59%Kalshi234K contracts · 56%/57%59%venue gap0.0pp7-day move+0.5ppRick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.7K41%Kalshi260K contracts · 43%/44%43%venue gap2.0pp7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT. Day Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi 7 days ago 59.0% 59.0% 41.0% 43.0% 6 days ago 59.0% 59.0% 41.0% 43.0% 5 days ago 59.5% 59.0% 40.5% 43.0% 4 days ago 59.5% 59.0% 40.5% 43.0% 3 days ago 59.5% 58.0% 40.5% 43.0% 2 days ago 59.5% 58.0% 40.5% 43.0% yesterday 59.5% 58.0% 40.5% 43.0% today 59.5% 56.5% 40.5% 43.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
nNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Aaron Ford (D) faces Joe Lombardo (R).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 52.0%, Kalshi 55.5%; Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 48.0%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Aaron Ford 55% · Joe Lombardo 45%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Aaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$11.8K55%Kalshi108K contracts · 55%/56%—venue gap—7-day move-3.0ppJoe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$33.5K45.5%Kalshi162K contracts · 44%/45%—venue gap—7-day move+2.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT. Day Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi 7 days ago 55.0% — 45.5% — 6 days ago 52.5% — 48.0% 44.0% 5 days ago 52.0% 57.0% 48.0% 43.0% 4 days ago 52.0% 57.0% 48.0% 45.0% 3 days ago 52.0% 55.0% 48.0% 48.0% 2 days ago 52.0% 55.0% 48.0% 44.0% yesterday 52.0% 56.0% 48.0% 44.0% today 52.0% 55.5% 48.0% 44.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
lWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
Tom Tiffany (R) leads the unresolved Republican primary; Francesca Hong (D) leads the unresolved Democratic primary.
An open governorship, and neither nomination is official yet, though the market already treats both as decided — the Republican side gained about eight points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 60.0%, Kalshi 61.5%; Francesca Hong (D): Polymarket 41.0%, Kalshi 37.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Tom Tiffany 61% · Francesca Hong 38%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Tom Tiffany (R)*7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$76.5K53%Kalshi173K contracts · 61%/62%53%venue gap0.0pp7-day move+7.0ppFrancesca Hong (D)*7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$52.9K43.5%Kalshi211K contracts · 37%/38%48.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move-2.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT. Day Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi Francesca Hong · Polymarket Francesca Hong · Kalshi 7 days ago 53.0% 53.0% 43.5% 48.0% 6 days ago 56.5% 52.0% 44.5% 48.0% 5 days ago 57.5% 56.0% 41.5% 45.0% 4 days ago 59.5% 60.0% 41.0% 41.0% 3 days ago 59.5% 60.0% 41.5% 40.0% 2 days ago 59.5% 61.0% 41.5% 39.0% yesterday 60.0% 62.0% 41.0% 40.0% today 60.0% 61.5% 41.0% 37.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
Not news news1 story
The president's top elections bill never came up for a vote, and senators left for a month without scheduling one for the fall.
Senators left Washington for their month-long August break without ever voting on the SAVE America Act, President Trump's top elections bill. It would require anyone registering to vote in a federal election to show a document proving U.S. citizenship: a passport, a birth certificate, or naturalization papers. Today a person registering signs a sworn statement that they are a citizen, and lying on it is a federal crime that carries prison time, plus deportation for noncitizens. Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats. Ending a filibuster — the delay tactic that lets the losing side block a bill unless 60 senators vote to move on — takes 60, and no Democrat offered to close the gap. Majority Leader John Thune (Sen-R South Dakota) had said for weeks that the votes were not there. The departure was reported Saturday, Aug. 8, and confirmed what had been clear since the spring.
The numbers, and the four Democrats who voted yes in the House
- About 21.3 million voting-age citizens — roughly 9% of everyone old enough to vote — cannot quickly find a birth certificate, passport, or naturalization papers, per a 2023 Brennan Center and VoteRiders survey.
- Only about half of American adults hold a valid passport, so for most people the document in question is a birth certificate held in another state's records office.
- Ed Case (Rep-D Hawaii) — voted for the House version
- Henry Cuellar (Rep-D Texas) — voted for the House version
- Jared Golden (Rep-D Maine) — voted for the House version
- Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Rep-D Washington) — voted for the House version
A stacked bar of the House vote: 220 yes and 208 no, 428 votes cast, so 51 percent of those voting said yes.
The House voted 220–208
12-vote margin, out of 428 votes cast.
The numbers
| Votes | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| House roll call | 220 votes | 208 votes |
Red take
Registration today turns on a signed sworn statement, checked only after the fact; the House judged that insufficient and passed the measure 220-208 on April 10, 2025, with four Democrats joining. Republicans hold 53 seats and the bill never reached the floor, so the case for verifying citizenship at the point of registration rather than prosecuting it afterward was never tested by a vote.
Blue take
A 2023 Brennan Center and VoteRiders survey puts 21.3 million voting-age citizens — roughly 9% — beyond quick reach of a birth certificate, passport, or naturalization papers, and only about half of adults hold a valid passport. The burden of the change falls on those citizens, retrieving records from another state's office, to police conduct that already carries prison time and deportation.