News news2 stories
Ongoing1 earlier update
This story has run 2 times, starting Aug 17.
- Trump orders the Pentagon to cut U.S.–South Korea military drills, granting a demand North Korea has made for decades
- Trump cuts joint war drills with South Korea, blaming Seoul's refusal to help on Iran — this issue
The president tied the order to a grievance over Iran and to his relationship with North Korea's leader.
President Trump has ordered the Pentagon to scale back the joint military exercises that American and South Korean forces run together — the drills that keep the two armies able to fight side by side. He said Monday, Aug. 17, that South Korea had refused to help the United States press Iran to give up its nuclear program, and that the refusal is what pushed him to cut the drills. He said it while acknowledging that American troops sit on the peninsula to deter North Korea. He has separately called the exercises expensive and described them as "hostile" toward North Korea, citing his "very good relationship" with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Democrats mocked the decision. Allies in the region, who already worry that Trump is walking away from old defense commitments, reacted with alarm.
BackgroundWhat happened the last time Trump traded exercises for a Kim summit
- He canceled the August 2018 Ulchi Freedom Guardian drills days after his first summit with Kim in Singapore, calling them provocative and, in his word, expensive.
- The follow-up summit in Hanoi collapsed in February 2019 with no deal.
- North Korea has run six nuclear tests, the last in September 2017, and kept building missiles through every pause in U.S. drills.
- Full-scale exercises did not return until August 2022, after four years of shrunken, mostly computer-simulated versions.
- The grievance driving this one is Iran — more than 4,000 miles from Seoul, and no part of what those troops are stationed there to deter.
Update
We ran the order itself yesterday. What is new today is the reason: Trump tied the cut to South Korea's refusal to help the United States press Iran, and to his own relationship with Kim Jong Un. The Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times and the BBC added reporting overnight.
Related reading
A conservative outlet argues the cut confuses allies and adversaries alike — worth reading because the criticism is coming from Trump's own side.
Confusing adversaries and allies is a basic foreign policy mistake.
The case that Seoul is absorbing the cost of a gesture aimed at Kim Jong Un, from writers who backed the first-term summits.
President Donald Trump made history during his first term by meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in two summits.
Ongoing6 earlier updates26 days
This story has run 7 times over 26 days, starting Jul 23.
- Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
- Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
- Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
- Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
- Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
- Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
- Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — this issue
A 60-day window for peace talks is running out, and the president's target is the one American ally Iran still talks to.
Trump made the threat in a Fox interview on Monday, Aug. 17, while his administration bargained with Iran over reopening the Strait of Hormuz (the sea passage between Oman and Iran that Gulf oil tankers must use to reach open water). "If Oman gets in the way, we'll bomb the s--- out of them," he said. Oman has been running its own talks with Tehran on a provisional arrangement to manage traffic through the strait. U.S. forces are currently blockading Iranian ships there, and Trump said American forces could strike Oman if it interferes with that blockade. Oman is a treaty-level security partner that hosts U.S. aircraft and warships. A day earlier (Sunday, Aug. 16), Trump issued fresh orders to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on the pressure campaign against Iran and publicly turned on South Korea, another ally.
What the U.S. would lose by bombing Oman — the basing deal, the sea lanes, and the broker:
- A 1980 facilities agreement, last revised and renewed in 2010, lets U.S. aircraft use Oman's Thumrait and Masirah Island airfields; a separate Strategic Framework Agreement signed in March 2019 expanded U.S. access to the ports of Duqm and Salalah.
- The strait narrows to about 21 miles between Oman's Musandam peninsula and the Iranian coast, and the inbound and outbound shipping lanes are only two miles wide each, which is why a handful of warships can choke the whole waterway.
- Sultan Haitham bin Tariq (Sultan, Oman), who took power in January 2020, has kept his country out of the Abraham Accords and out of the Saudi-led war in Yemen. That neutrality is exactly what makes Muscat useful to both sides.
- A U.S.–Oman free trade agreement has been in force since Jan. 1, 2009, one of four the United States holds with Arab countries, alongside Jordan, Morocco and Bahrain.
Related reading
A war powers resolution is privileged, which means party leaders cannot bury it in committee. Filing one forces a vote on the floor, and each member then has to answer in public, yes or no, for striking a country the United States is not at war with.
Congressional Democrats are planning a new push to constrain President Trump's ability to use military force, following his threat to bomb Oman over the Strait of Hormuz negotiations.
Read more about: Trump turns on two allies, Oman and South Korea, as the standoff with Iran widens
The Oman threat was not a one-off: inside two days (Sunday and Monday, Aug. 16 and 17) the president also went after South Korea, which shows the blockade fight is now pointed at allies as much as at Iran.
President Trump is lashing out at rivals and allies alike amid an escalating game of economic chicken between the U.S. and Iran. On Monday, he threatened to "bomb the s--- out of" Oman, a day after issuing new instructions to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
Quick bites4
Kushner asks Israel to take small steps in Gaza to test Hamas disarmament
AXIOSGazaSpecial envoy Jared Kushner met Benjamin Netanyahu (Prime Minister, Israel) on Monday, after talks with a leader of Hamas, which the U.S. designates a terrorist group. A U.S. official, who was not named, said Kushner asked Israel to take unspecified "small steps" in Gaza to test whether Hamas will start to disarm.
Update
Yesterday we reported that Hamas told Kushner in Egypt it still plans to disarm and demilitarize Gaza. What is new today is what Kushner is asking of the other side: small, reversible Israeli steps to test whether that plan is real.
Ongoing4
This story has run 5 times over 19 days, starting Jul 30.
- Trump says Hamas agreed to phased disarmament in Gaza; Israel remains skeptical
- Israel raises ‘serious security concerns’ over Hamas disarmament deal
- Netanyahu rejects Trump's 15-point Gaza plan, says troops stay until Hamas disarms
- Hamas told Kushner in Egypt it still plans to disarm and demilitarize Gaza
- Kushner asks Israel to take small steps in Gaza to test Hamas disarmament — this issue
House Ethics opens an investigation into Jimmy Gomez over sexual contact with a staffer
NYTThe House Ethics Committee said Monday only that it is reviewing the claims, not that it has opened a formal investigation. House rules bar sex between members and staff who report to them; Gomez admitted "personal mistakes" outside his marriage and says the contact was consensual and broke no rule.
ACLU asks the Supreme Court to strike Texas's Ten Commandments classroom law
THE HILLThe ACLU asked the Supreme Court on Monday to hear its challenge to the Texas law requiring public school classrooms to post the Ten Commandments, representing parents from several different faiths. The justices have not decided whether to take the case.
Attorney General Blanche says the voter rolls fight may go to the Supreme Court
THE HILLVoter-roll checksTHE HILL: Blanche won't rule out a Supreme Court appeal in the voter rolls fight with states, but no appeal has been filed
Attorney General Todd Blanche called a Supreme Court appeal in the administration's voter rolls fight with states "absolutely a possibility." No appeal has been filed.
Elections21 races
The midterms · 77 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 88%, Kalshi 86%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 51%, Kalshi 49%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 2.0pp gap / 2.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 88% | 85% | 53% | 49% |
| 6 days ago | 88% | 85% | 53% | 49% |
| 5 days ago | 88% | 86% | 53% | 50% |
| 4 days ago | 88% | 86% | 53% | 48% |
| 3 days ago | 88% | 86% | 53% | 49% |
| 2 days ago | 88% | 86% | 51% | 48% |
| yesterday | 88% | 85% | 51% | 49% |
| today | 88% | 86% | 51% | 49% |
3 closest races
hTexas SenateTalarico vs. PaxtonTalarico51.5%Paxton50.5%books split
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).
The two venues do not agree on who is ahead.
The books name different leaders
Texas Senate
Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.
Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0ppTexas Senate. Lead in percentage points, positive to James Talarico. Polymarket: Talarico ahead by 3 points. Kalshi: Paxton ahead by 1 point. Every day is in the table below.
today
- Talarico+3%Polymarket
- Paxton+1%Kalshi
- Talarico51.5%Polymarket
- Talarico49.5%Kalshi
- Paxton48.5%Polymarket
- Paxton50.5%Kalshi
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
The lead is one candidate’s price minus the other’s, at the same venue on the same day — never one book’s Tuesday against the other’s Thursday. It is drawn only where a venue priced both candidates, so a line starts late rather than being stretched across days it was never quoted over.
A day inside a tenth of a point is printed as levelrather than being rounded onto somebody’s side: on a chart whose whole subject is who is in front, a dead heat shown as a win is the one error that cannot be recovered from the drawing.
The markets: James Talarico Polymarket, Kalshi · Ken Paxton Polymarket, Kalshi
Every price behind the chart, and the lead it produces. Texas Senate, snapshot Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT. Day Talarico · Polymarket Paxton · Polymarket Lead · Polymarket Talarico · Kalshi Paxton · Kalshi Lead · Kalshi 7 days ago 51.5% 47.5% Talarico +4% 52.0% 49.0% Talarico +3% 6 days ago 51.5% 48.5% Talarico +3% 55.0% 46.0% Talarico +9% 5 days ago 51.5% 49.5% Talarico +2% 51.0% 49.0% Talarico +2% 4 days ago 51.5% 49.5% Talarico +2% 50.0% 50.0% level 3 days ago 51.5% 49.5% Talarico +2% 51.0% 51.0% level 2 days ago 51.5% 48.5% Talarico +3% 49.0% 51.0% Paxton +2% yesterday 51.5% 48.5% Talarico +3% 49.0% 51.0% Paxton +2% today 51.5% 48.5% Talarico +3% 49.5% 50.5% Paxton +1% fOhio governorActon vs. RamaswamyRamaswamy49.5%Acton50.5%books split
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the two venues do not agree on who is ahead.
The books name different leaders
Ohio governor
Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.
Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0ppOhio governor. Lead in percentage points, positive to Amy Acton. Kalshi: Acton ahead by 2 points. Polymarket: Ramaswamy ahead by 2 points. Every day is in the table below.
today
- Acton+2%Kalshi
- Ramaswamy+2%Polymarket
- Acton47.5%Polymarket
- Acton50.5%Kalshi
- Ramaswamy49.5%Polymarket
- Ramaswamy48.5%Kalshi
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
The lead is one candidate’s price minus the other’s, at the same venue on the same day — never one book’s Tuesday against the other’s Thursday. It is drawn only where a venue priced both candidates, so a line starts late rather than being stretched across days it was never quoted over.
A day inside a tenth of a point is printed as levelrather than being rounded onto somebody’s side: on a chart whose whole subject is who is in front, a dead heat shown as a win is the one error that cannot be recovered from the drawing.
The markets: Amy Acton Polymarket, Kalshi · Vivek Ramaswamy Polymarket, Kalshi
Every price behind the chart, and the lead it produces. Ohio governor, snapshot Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT. Day Acton · Polymarket Ramaswamy · Polymarket Lead · Polymarket Acton · Kalshi Ramaswamy · Kalshi Lead · Kalshi 7 days ago 53.0% 45.0% Acton +8% 51.0% 51.0% level 6 days ago 52.5% 44.0% Acton +8.5% 50.0% 50.0% level 5 days ago 48.5% 50.5% Ramaswamy +2% 50.0% 49.0% Acton +1% 4 days ago 48.5% 50.5% Ramaswamy +2% 51.0% 50.0% Acton +1% 3 days ago 48.0% 48.5% Ramaswamy +0.5% 50.0% 46.0% Acton +4% 2 days ago 48.0% 49.5% Ramaswamy +1.5% 50.0% 48.0% Acton +2% yesterday 47.5% 49.5% Ramaswamy +2% 51.0% 49.0% Acton +2% today 47.5% 49.5% Ramaswamy +2% 50.5% 48.5% Acton +2% uAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Tom Begich (D) faces Bernadette Wilson (R).
Begich holds a commanding lead after Wilson lost about six points in five days.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT
widest venue gap 5.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 49.0%, Kalshi 49.5%; Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 5.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Tom Begich 49% · Bernadette Wilson 25%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Tom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$143K56%Kalshi54.8K contracts · 49%/50%48%venue gap8.0pp7-day move-7.0ppBernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$164K31.5%Kalshi28.8K contracts · 20%/21%—venue gap—7-day move-6.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT. Day Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi 7 days ago 56.0% 48.0% 31.5% — 6 days ago 54.5% 51.0% 26.5% — 5 days ago 53.5% 50.0% 26.0% 27.0% 4 days ago 53.0% 50.0% 26.0% 24.0% 3 days ago 54.0% 52.0% 26.0% 28.0% 2 days ago 49.0% 50.0% 25.5% 22.0% yesterday 49.0% 49.0% 25.5% 16.0% today 49.0% 49.5% 25.5% 20.5%
The other 18 races
Senate9 of 10
iAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a clear lead after Sullivan lost about five points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 46.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 57% · Dan Sullivan 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$204K51%Kalshi53.7K contracts · 54%/55%52%venue gap1.0pp7-day move+6.5ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$121K48.5%Kalshi54.0K contracts · 44%/48%49.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-7.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 51.0% 52.0% 48.5% 49% 6 days ago 51.0% 55.0% 48.5% 45% 5 days ago 51.5% 54.0% 48.5% 45% 4 days ago 51.0% 57.0% 48.5% 47% 3 days ago 51.5% 53.0% 48.5% 47% 2 days ago 57.5% 56.0% 42.5% 47% yesterday 57.5% 56.0% 41.5% 48% today 57.5% 54.5% 41.5% 46% qGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.1pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.00%, Kalshi 91.95%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 7.35%, Kalshi 8.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.1pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 92% · Mike Collins 8.2%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$41.4K92.0%Kalshi298K contracts · 92%/92%90.9%venue gap1.1pp7-day move+1.0ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$67.9K7.75%Kalshi752K contracts · 8.1%/8.4%8.90%venue gap1.1pp7-day move-0.4ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 92.0% 90.90% 7.75% 8.90% 6 days ago 93.0% 91.00% 7.75% 9.60% 5 days ago 93.0% 91.50% 7.70% 8.50% 4 days ago 93.0% 91.70% 7.70% 8.90% 3 days ago 93.0% 92.00% 7.55% 8.70% 2 days ago 92.5% 92.30% 7.60% 8.70% yesterday 93.0% 92.30% 7.35% 8.40% today 93.0% 91.95% 7.35% 8.25% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
jIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 57% · Josh Turek 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$104K57%Kalshi877K contracts · 56%/57%60%venue gap3.0pp7-day move+2.5ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$102K43.5%Kalshi758K contracts · 43%/44%41.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 57.0% 60.0% 43.5% 41.0% 6 days ago 56.5% 59.0% 43.5% 41.0% 5 days ago 57.0% 55.0% 43.5% 45.0% 4 days ago 57.5% 55.0% 43.0% 45.0% 3 days ago 57.5% 55.0% 43.5% 45.0% 2 days ago 59.5% 56.0% 40.5% 43.0% yesterday 59.5% 57.0% 40.5% 43.0% today 59.5% 56.5% 40.5% 43.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
gMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT
widest venue gap 6.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 65.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 35.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 6.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 67% · Susan Collins 34%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$717K69.5%Kalshi1.8M contracts · 65%/66%65.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move0.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$434K30.5%Kalshi2.1M contracts · 35%/36%36.0%venue gap5.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 69.5% 65.0% 30.5% 36.0% 6 days ago 69.5% 67.0% 29.5% 35.0% 5 days ago 69.5% 66.0% 29.5% 35.0% 4 days ago 69.5% 66.0% 29.5% 36.0% 3 days ago 69.5% 66.0% 29.5% 36.0% 2 days ago 69.5% 66.0% 29.5% 36.0% yesterday 69.5% 66.0% 29.5% 36.0% today 69.5% 65.5% 29.5% 35.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
kMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 58% · Mike Rogers 42%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$243K59.5%Kalshi808K contracts · 57%/58%57.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+1.0ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$225K41.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 42%/43%44.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 59.5% 57.0% 41.5% 44.0% 6 days ago 57.5% 59.0% 42.5% 42.0% 5 days ago 55.5% 58.0% 43.5% 44.0% 4 days ago 55.5% 54.0% 45.5% 46.0% 3 days ago 58.0% 56.0% 42.5% 45.0% 2 days ago 58.5% 57.0% 41.5% 44.0% yesterday 60.5% 58.0% 40.5% 43.0% today 60.5% 57.5% 40.5% 42.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
rNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 71.5%, Kalshi 70.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 29.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 71% · Dan Osborn 29%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$79.2K72%Kalshi236K contracts · 70%/71%71%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-0.5ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$24.2K28.5%Kalshi331K contracts · 29%/30%29.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 72.0% 71.0% 28.5% 29.0% 6 days ago 71.5% 71.0% 28.5% 29.0% 5 days ago 71.5% 71.0% 28.0% 30.0% 4 days ago 71.0% 71.0% 29.0% 30.0% 3 days ago 71.5% 70.0% 28.0% 30.0% 2 days ago 71.5% 71.0% 28.5% 30.0% yesterday 71.5% 71.0% 28.5% 29.0% today 71.5% 70.5% 28.5% 29.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
sNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) leads the unresolved Democratic primary; John E. Sununu (R) leads the unresolved Republican primary.
Neither nomination is official yet, though the market already treats both as decided.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 85.5%, Kalshi 89.0%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 13.0%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 88% · John E. Sununu 13%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)*7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$27.9K86.5%Kalshi70.2K contracts · 88%/90%89.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-1.0ppJohn E. Sununu (R)*7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$16.8K13%Kalshi107K contracts · 12%/13%12%venue gap1.0pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago 86.5% 89.0% 13.0% 12.0% 6 days ago 86.5% 89.0% 14.0% 13.0% 5 days ago 85.0% 89.0% 14.0% 12.0% 4 days ago 85.5% 88.0% 14.5% 13.0% 3 days ago 85.5% 90.4% 14.5% 13.0% 2 days ago 85.5% 88.0% 13.5% 12.0% yesterday 85.5% 87.0% 13.0% 13.0% today 85.5% 89.0% 13.0% 12.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
pNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.3pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 92.00%, Kalshi 92.25%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 7.00%, Kalshi 6.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.3pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 92% · Michael Whatley 6.9%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$36.4K91.0%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 92%/93%91.2%venue gap0.2pp7-day move+1.0ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$56.7K9.0%Kalshi176K contracts · 5.5%/8.2%8.5%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 91.0% 91.20% 9.0% 8.50% 6 days ago 91.5% 91.40% 8.5% 8.40% 5 days ago 92.5% 92.90% 8.5% 7.60% 4 days ago 92.5% 92.80% 8.5% 8.00% 3 days ago 92.5% 91.70% 8.5% 8.30% 2 days ago 91.5% 91.60% 9.5% 8.30% yesterday 92.0% 92.60% 7.0% 8.20% today 92.0% 92.25% 7.0% 6.85% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
lOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 52.5%, Kalshi 51.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 46.5%, Kalshi 48.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 52% · Jon Husted 48%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$99.8K52.5%Kalshi772K contracts · 51%/52%50.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$74.1K48.5%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 48%/49%51.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 52.5% 50.0% 48.5% 51.0% 6 days ago 52.5% 51.0% 48.5% 51.0% 5 days ago 56.5% 51.0% 44.5% 49.0% 4 days ago 57.5% 53.0% 42.5% 48.0% 3 days ago 52.5% 51.0% 47.0% 49.0% 2 days ago 52.5% 51.0% 46.5% 50.0% yesterday 52.5% 52.0% 46.5% 49.0% today 52.5% 51.5% 46.5% 48.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors9 of 11
wArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.0%, Kalshi 86.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 13.5%, Kalshi 14.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 87% · Andy Biggs 14%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$30.8K87.5%Kalshi284K contracts · 86%/87%88.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-0.5ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$35.8K12.5%Kalshi216K contracts · 13%/16%16.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 16.0% 6 days ago 87.5% 87.0% 12.5% 15.0% 5 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 15.0% 4 days ago 87.0% 87.0% 13.0% 15.0% 3 days ago 87.0% 87.0% 13.0% 15.0% 2 days ago 87.0% 85.0% 13.5% 15.0% yesterday 87.0% 88.0% 13.5% 16.0% today 87.0% 86.5% 13.5% 14.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
nGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 62.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 37.5%, Kalshi 41.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 60% · Rick Jackson 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$30.0K60%Kalshi252K contracts · 59%/60%60%venue gap0.0pp7-day move+2.5ppRick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$33.5K40.5%Kalshi310K contracts · 40%/42%43.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT. Day Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi 7 days ago 60.0% 60.0% 40.5% 43% 6 days ago 62.5% 61.0% 36.5% 40% 5 days ago 64.0% 61.0% 36.5% 40% 4 days ago 63.5% 61.0% 37.0% 42% 3 days ago 62.0% 60.0% 37.0% 41% 2 days ago 62.5% 60.0% 37.5% 42% yesterday 62.5% 60.0% 37.5% 42% today 62.5% 59.5% 37.5% 41% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
tIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about four points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 74.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 74% · Zach Lahn 27%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$25.1K72%Kalshi186K contracts · 74%/75%69%venue gap3.0pp7-day move+1.5ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$34.9K26.5%Kalshi210K contracts · 26%/27%31.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 72.0% 69.0% 26.5% 31.0% 6 days ago 71.5% 72.0% 28.5% 28.0% 5 days ago 72.5% 72.0% 26.0% 28.0% 4 days ago 72.0% 72.0% 26.5% 28.0% 3 days ago 72.0% 72.0% 26.5% 28.0% 2 days ago 72.5% 74.0% 27.5% 27.0% yesterday 73.5% 75.0% 27.5% 26.0% today 73.5% 74.5% 27.5% 26.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
vMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 85.5%, Kalshi 86.5%; John James (R): Polymarket 15.0%, Kalshi 13.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 86% · John James 14%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$47.1K84%Kalshi71.4K contracts · 85%/88%85%venue gap1.0pp7-day move+1.5ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$150K15%Kalshi112K contracts · 13%/14%15%venue gap0.0pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 84.0% 85.0% 15% 15.0% 6 days ago 84.0% 86.0% 15% 17.0% 5 days ago 84.0% 86.0% 15% 17.0% 4 days ago 85.5% 84.0% 15% 16.0% 3 days ago 85.5% 84.0% 15% 16.0% 2 days ago 85.5% 88.0% 15% 17.0% yesterday 85.5% 88.0% 15% 14.0% today 85.5% 86.5% 15% 13.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
oNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a clear lead after the Democratic side gained about six points in six days.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 58.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 43.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 59% · Aaron Ford 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$47.3K62%Kalshi217K contracts · 58%/59%65%venue gap3.0pp7-day move-1.5ppAaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$21.4K37%Kalshi461K contracts · 42%/44%—venue gap—7-day move+1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT. Day Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi 7 days ago 62.0% 65.0% 37.0% — 6 days ago 64.0% 60.0% 34.5% 32% 5 days ago 63.0% 63.0% 36.5% 41% 4 days ago 62.5% 62.0% 37.5% 36% 3 days ago 63.5% 62.0% 36.0% 40% 2 days ago 60.5% 61.0% 38.5% 37% yesterday 60.5% 59.0% 38.5% 44% today 60.5% 58.5% 38.5% 43% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
yNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.9pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.50%, Kalshi 93.45%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 5.5%, Kalshi 7.4%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.9pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 94% · Bruce Blakeman 7.2%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$46.9K93.5%Kalshi208K contracts · 93%/94%96.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+1.0ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$49.1K6.5%Kalshi511K contracts · 6.9%/7.9%5.3%venue gap1.2pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 93.5% 96.00% 6.5% 5.3% 6 days ago 93.5% 94.10% 6.0% 8.0% 5 days ago 93.5% 93.50% 6.0% 8.0% 4 days ago 93.5% 93.50% 6.0% 7.9% 3 days ago 94.0% 93.40% 6.0% 7.9% 2 days ago 94.5% 93.70% 5.5% 8.0% yesterday 94.5% 93.30% 5.5% 8.0% today 94.5% 93.45% 5.5% 7.4% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
zPennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 95.5%, Kalshi 94.0%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 5.00%, Kalshi 5.35%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 4–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 94% · Stacy Garrity 5.3%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$7.3K95.5%Kalshi67.8K contracts · 93%/96%—venue gap—7-day move0.0ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$16.8K5.5%Kalshi351K contracts · 3.4%/7.3%—venue gap—7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 95.5% — 5.5% — 6 days ago 95.5% — 5.5% — 5 days ago 95.5% — 5.5% — 4 days ago 95.5% — 5.5% — 3 days ago 95.5% 94.8% 5.5% 6.70% 2 days ago 95.5% 94.9% 5.5% 6.70% yesterday 95.5% 95.5% 5.0% 4.00% today 95.5% 94.0% 5.0% 5.35% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
xTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.6pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 85.85%, Kalshi 87.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 15.0%, Kalshi 13.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.6pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 87% · Gina Hinojosa 14%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$25.1K83.15%Kalshi118K contracts · 87%/88%86.00%venue gap2.8pp7-day move+2.7ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.3K14%Kalshi515K contracts · 13%/14%13%venue gap1.0pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 83.15% 86.0% 14.0% 13.0% 6 days ago 81.75% 86.0% 17.0% 14.0% 5 days ago 84.30% 86.0% 16.0% 15.0% 4 days ago 84.65% 87.0% 16.0% 15.0% 3 days ago 84.60% 87.0% 15.5% 15.0% 2 days ago 85.85% 87.0% 15.0% 14.0% yesterday 85.85% 88.0% 15.0% 14.0% today 85.85% 87.5% 15.0% 13.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
mWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about five points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 77.5%, Kalshi 74.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 23.5%, Kalshi 25.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 75% · Tom Tiffany 25%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$110K77.5%Kalshi396K contracts · 74%/75%64.0%venue gap14pp7-day move0.0ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$182K22.5%Kalshi427K contracts · 25%/26%32.0%venue gap9.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 77.5% 64.0% 22.5% 32.0% 6 days ago 77.5% 77.0% 22.5% 24.0% 5 days ago 77.5% 77.0% 23.5% 26.0% 4 days ago 76.5% 73.0% 23.5% 27.0% 3 days ago 75.5% 72.0% 23.5% 29.0% 2 days ago 76.5% 74.0% 23.5% 28.0% yesterday 77.5% 75.0% 23.5% 26.0% today 77.5% 74.5% 23.5% 25.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Aug 17, 11:18 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
Not news news1 story
CBP Commissioner Rodney Scott stopped work on an access road, detection technology and vehicle barriers on Monday, Aug. 17, along the park's 118 miles of the Rio Grande.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Rodney Scott announced Monday, Aug. 17, that work inside Big Bend National Park would temporarily stop while he visits the site. The halted work includes an access road, detection technology and vehicle barriers. The pause followed complaints from Republicans and Democrats.
Why a barrier at Big Bend is harder to build than one at El Paso:
- A 1970 boundary treaty with Mexico bars structures that would shove the Rio Grande's flow across the line, which is why Texas barriers usually sit set back inland rather than on the bank.
- The park's run of the Rio Grande has been a federally protected Wild and Scenic River since 1978, a status written to block projects that alter the riverway.
- Big Bend covers 801,163 acres — bigger than Rhode Island — and most of that is roadless desert and mountain, so building anything means building a road to it first.