Political Guyentist
Political GuyentistWednesday, August 19, 2026
29 stories·3 news1 not news3 briefs22 elections·2 contested·15 cut
1us

Byron Donalds will face David Jolly to replace Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis

Donalds (Rep-R Florida) is Trump's pick. Jolly (D-FL) is a Republican who switched parties. They won the Aug. 18 primaries; the vote is Nov. 3.

What Trump's endorsement did to the Republican field: Trump backed Donalds in February 2025 — 18 months before the vote, and before DeSantis had a candidate of his own. DeSantis withheld an endorsement of Donalds for months, an open split with the president whose 2018 endorsement made DeSantis governor in the first place. Donalds has held the Naples-area 19th District since 2021 and had never appeared on a statewide ballot before Tuesday, Aug. 18.

ContextDavid Jolly represented Florida's 13th District in Congress as a Republican from 2014 to 2017, lost the seat to Democrat Charlie Crist, and left the party in 2018 after urging Trump from the House floor to quit the 2016 race. He now runs on insurance costs, public schools and campaign finance reform, and has raised about $6.4 million. Ron DeSantis is term-limited and leaves office in January. Florida last elected a Democratic governor in 1994.

THE HILL7 sources

2us

Trump-endorsed Cory Mills loses Florida primary while under House ethics investigation

Ryan Elijah (R-FL), a former TV news anchor who has never held office, beat the two-term incumbent in Florida's 7th District on Tuesday, Aug. 18.

What the open Ethics Committee inquiry put on the primary ballot: Allegations that Mills assaulted and threatened women, reported by the New York Times. Allegations of sexual misconduct, reported by the Washington Post. Separate allegations of domestic abuse. Alleged campaign finance violations tied to his own campaign accounts.

ContextSitting House members almost never lose primaries: in 2024, only three of more than 400 incumbents seeking renomination were beaten. Florida's 7th was a Democratic seat until the state's Republican-drawn 2022 map pushed Democrat Stephanie Murphy into retirement; Mills won the open race that November, then a second term in 2024. An ethics investigation cannot remove anyone from Congress — only a two-thirds House vote or the voters can.

NEW YORK TIMES7 sources

3uscontestedThe courts and the administration

Disney sues the FCC, calling an early review of ABC's licenses retaliation for its coverage

Disney wants a federal judge to stop the review before it starts, and says the agency's pressure has already changed what ABC puts on the air.

What an early license review does to a broadcaster before anyone rules on anything: Disney owns eight ABC stations outright, including New York, Los Angeles and Chicago. More than 200 other ABC stations are licensed to separate companies such as Nexstar and Sinclair — the ones Disney cannot defend in this lawsuit. A license sitting under review is hard to sell, borrow against, or fold into a merger, so the cost lands on station owners months or years before the FCC decides anything. The FCC has never revoked a major network station's license over news content. The remedy nobody expects is the one that makes the threat work.

ContextA broadcast license is the federal permit a TV station needs to use public airwaves; the FCC grants it in eight-year terms and renews it on a fixed schedule. In April the agency ordered Disney's ABC stations to file years early — none were due before 2028 — with 30 days for paperwork that takes months. The fight escalated in September 2025, when FCC Chairman Brendan Carr attacked ABC's late-night host Jimmy Kimmel over his comments on Charlie Kirk's killing, and Disney pulled the show for nearly a week.

THE HILL2 sources

4not newsuscontested

A Justice Department lawyer says the Ivy League antisemitism cases were decided before anyone investigated

A whistleblower complaint says investigators in some of the probes found no violations at all — and the schools paid anyway.

What the task force collected from the schools that agreed to settle: Columbia University: $200 million to the federal government over three years, plus $21 million to settle Equal Employment Opportunity Commission claims, announced July 23, 2025. Brown University: $50 million to Rhode Island workforce training groups over 10 years, agreed July 30, 2025. University of Pennsylvania: no payment, but a July 2025 policy deal that unfroze about $175 million in federal money.

ContextThe Joint Task Force to Combat Anti-Semitism was created Feb. 3, 2025, two weeks into Trump's second term. Its power comes from Title VI of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, which lets Washington cut off federal money to schools it finds are discriminating. Most of that money is science research grants, so the threat lands on labs and teaching hospitals, not lecture halls. Harvard refused to settle. In September 2025, a federal judge ruled that the freeze on more than $2.2 billion of its research grants was retaliation that broke the Constitution.

THE HILL2 sources

Wednesday · The daily brief

Aug 192026

4 leads25 briefs9 min

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The whole issue in a few minutes · 2:07 at 1×

Transcript

Executive summary4 stories

News news3

  1. Byron Donalds will face David Jolly to replace Florida Gov. Ron DeSantisDonalds (Rep-R Florida) is Trump's pick. Jolly (D-FL) is a Republican who switched parties. They won the Aug. 18 primaries; the vote is Nov. 3.
  2. Trump-endorsed Cory Mills loses Florida primary while under House ethics investigationRyan Elijah (R-FL), a former TV news anchor who has never held office, beat the two-term incumbent in Florida's 7th District on Tuesday, Aug. 18.
  3. Disney sues the FCC, calling an early review of ABC's licenses retaliation for its coverageDisney wants a federal judge to stop the review before it starts, and says the agency's pressure has already changed what ABC puts on the air.

Not news news1

  1. A Justice Department lawyer says the Ivy League antisemitism cases were decided before anyone investigatedA whistleblower complaint says investigators in some of the probes found no violations at all — and the schools paid anyway.

News news3 stories

Markets, not polling
Byron Donalds 80.5%20.0%Jolly

1.) THE HILL: Byron Donalds will face David Jolly to replace Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis

Donalds (Rep-R Florida) is Trump's pick. Jolly (D-FL) is a Republican who switched parties. They won the Aug. 18 primaries; the vote is Nov. 3.

Byron Donalds (Rep-R Florida) and David Jolly (D-FL) won their parties' nominations on Tuesday, Aug. 18, and are projected to meet in the fall election, according to Decision Desk HQ. Donalds, a third-term House member endorsed by Trump, defeated a crowded Republican field. Jolly, a former Republican House member who now runs as a Democrat, also topped a crowded field. The winner will replace term-limited Governor Ron DeSantis, who leaves office in January.

BackgroundWhat Trump's endorsement did to the Republican field3 facts
  • Trump backed Donalds in February 2025 — 18 months before the vote, and before DeSantis had a candidate of his own.
  • DeSantis withheld an endorsement of Donalds for months, an open split with the president whose 2018 endorsement made DeSantis governor in the first place.
  • Donalds has held the Naples-area 19th District since 2021 and had never appeared on a statewide ballot before Tuesday, Aug. 18.

RELATEDJim Schwartzel wins the primary for the House seat Donalds is vacating

Schwartzel, a broadcasting executive, beat Catalina Lauf in the Naples-area 19th District. Trump endorsed Lauf five days before the vote.

SEMI-RELATEDCongresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz wins her Democratic primary in a redrawn Florida district

Read more about: Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz wins her Democratic primary in a redrawn Florida district

Another result from the same Aug. 18 ballot: her 20th District seat was reshaped by Florida's new map.

2.) NEW YORK TIMES: Trump-endorsed Cory Mills loses Florida primary while under House ethics investigation

Ryan Elijah (R-FL), a former TV news anchor who has never held office, beat the two-term incumbent in Florida's 7th District on Tuesday, Aug. 18.

Cory Mills (Rep-R Florida) lost his bid for a third term in Florida's 7th Congressional District. The Associated Press and Decision Desk HQ both called the race for Elijah in a multi-candidate field. Donald Trump had endorsed Mills's reelection, so this is one of the rare times this cycle that a presidential endorsement did not carry a sitting Republican through his own primary. Mills ran while the House Ethics Committee — the panel that investigates members' conduct — had an open inquiry into him. The committee had announced no findings by primary day, and the inquiry stays open until his term ends in January 2027.

What the open Ethics Committee inquiry put on the primary ballotAllegations that Mills assaulted and threatened women, reported by the New York Times.4 details
  • Allegations that Mills assaulted and threatened women, reported by the New York Times.
  • Allegations of sexual misconduct, reported by the Washington Post.
  • Separate allegations of domestic abuse.
  • Alleged campaign finance violations tied to his own campaign accounts.

3.) THE HILL: Disney sues the FCC, calling an early review of ABC's licenses retaliation for its coverage

Disney wants a federal judge to stop the review before it starts, and says the agency's pressure has already changed what ABC puts on the air.

Disney and ABC sued the Federal Communications Commission on Tuesday, Aug. 18, to challenge an early review of ABC broadcast licenses. The companies accuse the Trump administration of using the review to censor journalists and say the FCC is violating their First Amendment rights.

What an early license review does to a broadcaster before anyone rules on anything:

  • Disney owns eight ABC stations outright, including New York, Los Angeles and Chicago. More than 200 other ABC stations are licensed to separate companies such as Nexstar and Sinclair — the ones Disney cannot defend in this lawsuit.
  • A license sitting under review is hard to sell, borrow against, or fold into a merger, so the cost lands on station owners months or years before the FCC decides anything.
  • The FCC has never revoked a major network station's license over news content. The remedy nobody expects is the one that makes the threat work.

Oversight

Let the review finish. Broadcast stations use public airwaves under a federal permit; cable and podcasts do not. The permit carries duties, and the FCC's job is to enforce them. The timing is bad: Chairman Brendan Carr attacked ABC's late-night host Jimmy Kimmel in September 2025, and this order followed. These licenses were not due before 2028, and 30 days for months of paperwork is unfair. Give Disney more time. But the agency has found nothing and revoked nothing. Disney wants a judge to kill a review with no findings. Any licensee could ask for that.

Retaliation

A judge should stop the review now. An open review costs money by itself: the license is hard to sell, borrow against, or fold into a merger. Carr is right that a station on public airwaves owes the public something. Disney's filing says ABC already grew more careful about which candidates it books on ‘The View.’ No ruling was needed for that. The obvious reply is that Disney is big enough to outlast an agency. It has not tried. It put $15 million toward Trump's presidential foundation in December 2024 to settle a defamation suit, and in 2025 it pulled its late-night host Jimmy Kimmel off the air for a week.

RELATEDABC grew more cautious about booking candidates on ‘The View,’ lawsuit says

Disney offers the booking change as its proof of a chilling effect: the network says it hesitated over political guests while the review was pending, months before the FCC can rule on anything.

Quick bites25

  1. Forest Service moves to open 44 million roadless acres to logging and roads

    THE HILL

    The U.S. Forest Service proposed on Aug. 18 to repeal the 2001 Roadless Rule, which bars road building and timber harvesting in roadless parts of the national forests. It is only a proposal, so those bans hold until the repeal is final.

  2. Texas Governor Abbott refuses to hand over ICE officer charged in Minneapolis shooting, Minnesota sues

    THE HILL

    Minnesota sued Texas Governor Greg Abbott on Aug. 18 over his refusal to return an ICE officer who is charged in the on-duty shooting of a Venezuelan man in Minneapolis this year. The officer is being held in a Texas jail.

  3. Liberia will take up to 1,200 deportees from the US who are not its citizens

    FOX NEWS

    Liberia said on Aug. 18 that it will take in up to 1,200 people the US wants to deport but cannot send to their home countries. The deal with the Trump administration runs one year.

Elections22 races

Congressional control

Who ends up holding each chamber

Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
7-day replay

U.S. House: chance of Democratic control of the House, Polymarket 88%, Kalshi 85%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 52%, Kalshi 49%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democratic control7 days ago · Democrats favoured
88%85%chance of Democratic control of the House · 2.5pp apart
U.S. House: chance of Democratic control of the House. 7 days ago, Polymarket 88% and Kalshi 85%. Today it stands at Polymarket 88% and Kalshi 85%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it7 days ago · Democrats favoured
53%49%chance Democrats take it · 3.5pp apart
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. 7 days ago, Polymarket 53% and Kalshi 49%. Today it stands at Polymarket 52% and Kalshi 49%.
7 days ago
How to read thisthe contract, the key, and the week panel

Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take it. This desk has not established who is defending the House, so that bar stays in the market’s own words and claims nothing about who would be losing it. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.

  • two venues, priced separately
  • shaded = how far apart they are
  • 50% — control flips here
  • the last 7 days, on its own scale
  • Polymarket, solid
  • Kalshi, dashed

Both lines in a week panel are the same contract, priced by two venues — not one line per party. Its colour is whose chance the bar is measuring, which is why a panel can be blue while the verdict beside it reads Republicans favoured.

3 of 22 races. Open one, or all of them — every race is on the page either way.

  • hAlaska SenateMary Peltola 54.0%Dan Sullivan 46.0%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a narrow lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 46%, Kalshi 46%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • oGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 92.1%7.8%Collins

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.1pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 92.5%, Kalshi 91.7%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 7.2%, Kalshi 8.3%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.1pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • iIowa SenateAshley Hinson 59.3%Josh Turek 40.8%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 60.0%, Kalshi 58.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 40.0%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 consequential races · Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT · markets, not polling

Senate7 of 10

  • fMaine SenateTroy Jackson 67.5%Susan Collins 32.5%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 4.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 65.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 34.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • jMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 58.5%Mike Rogers 42.0%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a clear lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 5.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 5.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • pNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 71.0%Dan Osborn 29.0%

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 71.5%, Kalshi 70.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 29.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • qNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 87.3%13.8%Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) leads the unresolved Democratic primary; John E. Sununu (R) leads the unresolved Republican primary.

    Neither nomination is official yet, though the market already treats both as decided.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 3.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 85.5%, Kalshi 89.0%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 15.0%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • nNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 92.9%7.5%Whatley

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.2pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 93.5%, Kalshi 92.3%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 7.5%, Kalshi 7.6%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • kOhio SenateSherrod Brown 52.0%Jon Husted 48.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 52.5%, Kalshi 51.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 47.5%, Kalshi 48.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • gTexas SenateTalarico51.5%Paxton52.5%books splitKen Paxton 50.5%James Talarico 50.0%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    Ken Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D).

    The two venues do not agree on who is ahead — the Republican side gained about three points in a week.

    The books name different leaders

    Texas Senate

    Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.

    Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 4.0pp

    Texas Senate. Lead in percentage points, positive to Ken Paxton. Kalshi: Paxton ahead by 4 points. Polymarket: Talarico ahead by 3 points. Every day is in the table below.

    Paxton aheadTalarico ahead10%5%tied5%10%7d agotodayPaxton +4%KalshiTalarico +3%Polymarket

    today

    • Paxton+4%Kalshi
    • Talarico+3%Polymarket
    • Paxton48.5%Polymarket
    • Paxton52.5%Kalshi
    • Talarico51.5%Polymarket
    • Talarico48.5%Kalshi

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Governors12

  • sAlaska governorBegich20%Wilson22%books split20.0%18.8%61.2%WilsonBegich

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    The two venues do not agree on who is ahead, but no race here has moved more this week: Begich is down about 34 points.

    The books name different leaders

    Alaska governor

    Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.

    Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 4.0pp

    Alaska governor. Lead in percentage points, positive to Bernadette Wilson. Kalshi: Wilson ahead by 4.5 points. Polymarket: Begich ahead by 2 points. Every day is in the table below.

    Wilson aheadBegich ahead40%20%tied20%40%7d agotodayWilson +4.5%KalshiBegich +2%Polymarket

    today

    • Wilson+4.5%Kalshi
    • Begich+2%Polymarket
    • Wilson18%Polymarket
    • Wilson22%Kalshi
    • Begich20.0%Polymarket
    • Begich17.5%Kalshi

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • uArizona governorKatie Hobbs 87.8%13.3%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.5%, Kalshi 88.0%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 13.0%, Kalshi 13.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yFlorida governorByron Donalds 80.5%20.0%Jolly

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 5.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 82%, Kalshi 79%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 17.5%, Kalshi 22.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 5.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • lGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 60.0%Rick Jackson 40.3%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 60.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 40.0%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • rIowa governorRob Sand 78.0%Zach Lahn 23.5%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about six points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 77.5%, Kalshi 78.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 23.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • tMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 86.3%14.5%James

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 86.0%, Kalshi 86.5%; John James (R): Polymarket 15%, Kalshi 14%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • mNevada governorJoe Lombardo 58.5%Aaron Ford 41.8%

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a clear lead after the Democratic side gained about nine points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 57%, Kalshi 60%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 42.5%, Kalshi 41.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • wNew York governorKathy Hochul 94.50%Blakeman 5.72%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 0.4pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.5%, Kalshi 94.5%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 5.50%, Kalshi 5.95%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • eOhio governorAmy Acton 49.5%Vivek Ramaswamy 48.5%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and it is a dead heat — the two sides are priced within a point of each other — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 48.5%, Kalshi 50.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 48.5%, Kalshi 48.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • xPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 94.95%Garrity 5.22%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.1pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 95.5%, Kalshi 94.4%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 5.00%, Kalshi 5.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.1pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • vTexas governorGreg Abbott 85.9%14.5%Hinojosa

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 0.8pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 86.3%, Kalshi 85.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 14.5%, Kalshi 14.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.8pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • dWisconsin governorMedian Strategies faked its Bass and Hong polls as a 'social experiment,' then closedDavid Crowley 76.0%24.5%Tiffany

    THE HILL: Median Strategies faked its Bass and Hong polls as a 'social experiment,' then closed

    Median Strategies, which released polls showing Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and Francesca Hong (D-WI) ahead by wide margins, announced on Aug. 17 that it is shutting down and directed media outlets to discount its surveys, saying the numbers were fake and meant as a 'social experiment' in how easily false results spread. Its Wisconsin poll had Hong up by double digits in the Democratic gubernatorial primary; she lost.

    The firm told outlets to discount its numbers on the way out the door.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 77.5%, Kalshi 74.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 23.5%, Kalshi 25.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Prices captured Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Not news news1 story

4.) THE HILL: A Justice Department lawyer says the Ivy League antisemitism cases were decided before anyone investigated

A whistleblower complaint says investigators in some of the probes found no violations at all — and the schools paid anyway.

A former Justice Department lawyer has filed a whistleblower complaint about the department's antisemitism task force. It says the task force worked toward "predetermined" outcomes in its civil rights cases against Ivy League universities. In some of those cases, investigators found no violations of federal law at all. The schools were steered into settlements anyway, the complaint says. The Washington Post reported the same account, and said the task force pressured universities into punishing settlements even though it turned up little or no evidence of widespread abuse at the schools it examined. In the lawyer's telling, politics set where each case landed, not what investigators found.

What the task force collected from the schools that agreed to settleColumbia University: $200 million to the federal government over three years, plus $21 million to settle Equal Employment…3 details
  • Columbia University: $200 million to the federal government over three years, plus $21 million to settle Equal Employment Opportunity Commission claims, announced July 23, 2025.
  • Brown University: $50 million to Rhode Island workforce training groups over 10 years, agreed July 30, 2025.
  • University of Pennsylvania: no payment, but a July 2025 policy deal that unfroze about $175 million in federal money.

Chosen

Columbia and Brown signed these agreements. One departing lawyer's complaint is not proof they were innocent. Nobody was charged with a crime. This is Title VI, the 1964 civil rights law that lets Washington cut off federal money to a school that discriminates. Settlements under it carry no admission of guilt. If investigators closed files finding nothing while the department kept demanding money, that is a scandal, and Columbia's $200 million should go back. But Columbia signed on July 23, 2025, and Brown a week later. Neither went to court. Harvard did, and won. They could have done the same.

Coerced

These were payments to get research funding released, and they fixed nothing on campus. Brown will pay $50 million over ten years to workforce training groups in Rhode Island. None of that reaches a Jewish student at Brown. The University of Pennsylvania paid nothing, got about $175 million unfrozen, and signed a deal about a transgender swimmer's eligibility under Title IX. Antisemitism was not in it. This rests on one former lawyer's account. Set it aside; the pressure is still there. The money at risk was research grants that pay for labs and teaching hospitals. Harvard had $2.2 billion frozen before a judge sided with it. Most schools cannot wait that out.

SEMI-RELATEDDOJ accuses William & Mary of discrimination in scholarships, benefits

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The same DOJ civil rights division is opening the same kind of campus case the complaint says is decided before it starts.