Political Guyentist
Political Guyentist

Thursday

1usUpdateIran war

Bessent says U.S. and China agreed to extend trade truce from Nov. 10 to Jan. 10

Trump personally greeted Xi Jinping at Joint Base Andrews on Sept. 23 for the Chinese president’s first U.S. state visit since September 2015.

- Aug. 18 — The United Arab Emirates halted trade and financial transactions with Iran after alleging an Iranian missile incident; Tehran denied firing the missiles. - Aug. 24–26 — Washington imposed sanctions (economic penalties) on nearly 60 Iranian targets during this period and threatened Iran’s trading partners with penalties; China rejected the threat. - Aug. 31 — Bessent promised weekly penalties against foreign firms doing business with Iran. - Sept. 21 — U.S. and Chinese officials opened New York talks on trade, artificial intelligence and critical minerals before Xi’s Washington visit. - Sept. 23 — A proposed emergency communication channel for artificial intelligence incidents emerged as a possible agreement between the leaders.

ContextThe United States and China trade goods in both directions, as recorded by the [U.S. Census Bureau Foreign Trade Division](https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/country/index.html). Electrical machinery and equipment accounted for 29.8% of U.S. imports from China, compared with 26.8% for machinery including computers and 15.3% for furniture, bedding, and toys, according to U.S. Census Bureau and BEA end-use estimates. At their May 2026 Beijing meeting, Trump and Xi agreed to begin discussing artificial intelligence safeguards. Those discussions preceded this visit but did not establish safeguards ([Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/trump-rolls-out-the-red-carpet-for-xi)). BASELINE FACTS FROM PUBLIC DATA - Partner country: China. - Trade in both directions: Recorded by the U.S. Census Bureau Foreign Trade Division for 2024. - Leading sectors as shares of U.S. imports from China: Electrical machinery and equipment (29.8%), machinery including computers (26.8%), and furniture, bedding, and toys (15.3%). - Source: U.S. Census Bureau, BEA end-use estimates.

THE GUARDIAN13 sources

2usUpdate

Bessent says U.S. and China extended their trade truce two months to Jan. 10, 2027

Officials are discussing lower import taxes on Chinese consumer goods and U.S. agricultural and energy exports; those cuts are not agreed.

In October 2025, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping reached the original trade truce in Busan, South Korea. By Sept. 21, 2026, U.S. and Chinese officials had opened New York talks on trade, artificial intelligence and critical minerals (materials needed for products such as electric-car motors and military equipment). The talks preceded a planned White House summit on Sept. 24, 2026.

ContextChina’s pause in expanded mineral export controls (rules restricting sales abroad) expires Nov. 10, 2026. Those restrictions return unless Beijing renews the pause. Separate rules introduced in April 2025 remain in force: China must approve exports of materials used in electric-car motors and military equipment despite the broader truce. Electrical machinery and equipment accounted for 29.8% of U.S. imports from China; machinery, including computers, accounted for 26.8%; and furniture, bedding, and toys accounted for 15.3% (U.S. Census Bureau, BEA end-use estimates). BASELINE FACTS FROM PUBLIC DATA - Partner country: China. - Total bilateral trade: U.S.–China trade includes goods moving in both directions — U.S. Census Bureau Foreign Trade Division. - Top sectors as shares of U.S. imports from China: Electrical machinery and equipment (29.8%), Machinery (incl. computers) (26.8%), Furniture, bedding, and toys (15.3%). - Source: U.S. Census Bureau, BEA end-use estimates.

WASHINGTON EXAMINER7 sources

3usUpdateIran war

Iran’s president offers talks but rejects nuclear limits and demands an end to the US naval blockade

Qatari mediators carried messages between US and Iranian negotiators on Sept. 22, their first talks since June.

On Sept. 18, the US granted visas to Pezeshkian and Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, while barring the Palestinian delegation for a second year. On Sept. 22, the UN General Assembly opened with the Iran and Ukraine wars on its agenda.

ContextA preliminary June agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz collapsed within weeks as Iranian attacks on shipping resumed and Washington reinstated its blockade. Iranian missile and drone attacks and the US blockade have kept the strait effectively closed since late February. Before the war, it carried one fifth of global oil and gas shipments, according to the [BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqvgyjy23ggjo).

NBC NEWS9 sources

4usUpdate

CNN, MS NOW and Politico remain barred from White House after Judge Kelly ends hearing without ruling

The ban left 78 credentialed journalists without access as of Sept. 23, according to Politico.

On Sept. 18, Trump announced the ban on CNN, MS NOW and Politico over their coverage. Reporters were denied entry the next day (Sept. 19). On Sept. 21, the outlets sued. That day, the five-network television pool (networks that share coverage of presidential events) stopped providing that coverage in protest.

ContextIn 1977, Sherrill v. Knight required published standards and procedural protections before the White House could deny press passes. In 2020, Karem v. Trump extended fair-notice protections (advance warning of rules before access is withdrawn) to suspensions. It rejected unwritten professionalism standards as grounds for restricting reporters’ access to question officials. [Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press](https://www.rcfp.org/karem-dc-circuit-press-pass-ruling/)

AXIOS14 sources

5usUpdate

White House denies plans for a 90-day diesel export ban after Trump calls for halting exports

Energy Secretary Chris Wright warns that stranded diesel would force refineries to cut production, raising gasoline and jet fuel prices.

On Sept. 22, diesel reached a reported $6.51 per gallon as Republicans pressed Trump to stop exports.

ContextThe U.S. Energy Information Administration’s average retail diesel price (EMD_EPD2D_PTE_NUS_DPG) was $6.53 per gallon on Sept. 21, 2026, compared with $3.49 on May 26, 2025. The earlier export restrictions concerned crude oil, not finished diesel. Congress ended those restrictions in December 2015. The Government Accountability Office found that refiners subsequently paid more for domestic crude but accepted smaller profits to absorb the costs. Gasoline prices largely followed global markets.

WASHINGTON EXAMINER13 sources

Thursday · The daily brief

Sep 242026

5 leads40 briefs12 min

BoardScroll

Executive summary5 stories

News news5

  1. Bessent says U.S. and China agreed to extend trade truce from Nov. 10 to Jan. 10Trump personally greeted Xi Jinping at Joint Base Andrews on Sept. 23 for the Chinese president’s first U.S. state visit since September 2015.
  2. Bessent says U.S. and China extended their trade truce two months to Jan. 10, 2027Officials are discussing lower import taxes on Chinese consumer goods and U.S. agricultural and energy exports; those cuts are not agreed.
  3. Iran’s president offers talks but rejects nuclear limits and demands an end to the US naval blockadeQatari mediators carried messages between US and Iranian negotiators on Sept. 22, their first talks since June.
  4. CNN, MS NOW and Politico remain barred from White House after Judge Kelly ends hearing without rulingThe ban left 78 credentialed journalists without access as of Sept. 23, according to Politico.
  5. White House denies plans for a 90-day diesel export ban after Trump calls for halting exportsEnergy Secretary Chris Wright warns that stranded diesel would force refineries to cut production, raising gasoline and jet fuel prices.

News news5 stories

Ongoing3 earlier updates3 days

This story has run 4 times over 3 days, starting Sep 21.

  1. UpdateU.S. and China open New York talks on trade, AI and critical minerals
  2. US proposes an AI incident hotline with China; next talks set for Shenzhen in November
  3. UpdateTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent pitched China an emergency AI hotline before summit talks
  4. UpdateBessent says U.S. and China agreed to extend trade truce from Nov. 10 to Jan. 10 — this issue
THE GUARDIANUpdateIran war

Bessent says U.S. and China agreed to extend trade truce from Nov. 10 to Jan. 10

Trump personally greeted Xi Jinping at Joint Base Andrews on Sept. 23, 2026, for the Chinese president’s first U.S. state visit since September 2015.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday, Sept. 23, that the United States and China agreed to extend their trade truce from Nov. 10, 2026, to Jan. 10, 2027. The deal, reached in South Korea in 2025, temporarily limits tariffs (taxes on imports) between the countries. AFP reporting.

What next. Trump and Xi have private talks and a state dinner scheduled for Thursday, Sept. 24. Trade, artificial intelligence, Taiwan, Iran and political prisoners are on the agenda. The arrival ceremony itself produced no agreement between the leaders. White House schedule.

Catch upwhat happened before · 3 earlier issues
  • Aug. 18 — The United Arab Emirates halted trade and financial transactions with Iran after alleging an Iranian missile incident; Tehran denied firing the missiles.
  • Aug. 24–26 — Washington imposed sanctions (economic penalties) on nearly 60 Iranian targets during this period and threatened Iran’s trading partners with penalties; China rejected the threat.
  • Aug. 31 — Bessent promised weekly penalties against foreign firms doing business with Iran.
  • Sept. 21 — U.S. and Chinese officials opened New York talks on trade, artificial intelligence and critical minerals before Xi’s Washington visit.
  • Sept. 23 — A proposed emergency communication channel for artificial intelligence incidents emerged as a possible agreement between the leaders.
2 earlier issues
WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdate

Bessent says U.S. and China extended their trade truce two months to Jan. 10, 2027

Officials are discussing lower import taxes on Chinese consumer goods and U.S. agricultural and energy exports; those cuts are not agreed.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2026, that the United States and China extended their trade truce by two months, from Nov. 10, 2026, to Jan. 10, 2027. He announced the agreement after meeting Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Washington. The extension gives negotiators more time to pursue a broader economic deal. Reuters

What next. Bessent said the countries could reach a larger agreement or extend the existing one again: “I don’t know whether a bigger deal can be done.” Bloomberg

In October 2025, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping reached the original trade truce in Busan, South Korea. By Sept. 21, 2026, U.S. and Chinese officials had opened New York talks on trade, artificial intelligence and critical minerals (materials needed for products such as electric-car motors and military equipment). The talks preceded a planned White House summit on Sept. 24, 2026.

NBC NEWSUpdateIran war

Iran’s president offers talks but rejects nuclear limits and demands an end to the US naval blockade

Pezeshkian told the UN on Wednesday, Sept. 23, that any agreement must end the blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, NBC News reported.

Iran’s terms. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran remained open to talks but would not negotiate under threats, according to NBC News. He spoke at the UN General Assembly (the annual gathering where world leaders present their positions).

The walkout. The sole US delegate left as Pezeshkian displayed photographs of children killed in the Minab school strike and of Ali Khamenei, Iran’s former supreme leader, killed on Feb. 28. Trump had threatened to “annihilate the Islamic Republic” at the UN on Sept. 22, according to NBC News.

Where it stands. Trump said a deal was likely after November’s US congressional elections, without providing details.

On Sept. 18, the US granted visas to Pezeshkian and Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, while barring the Palestinian delegation for a second year. On Sept. 22, the UN General Assembly opened with the Iran and Ukraine wars on its agenda.

Ongoing2 earlier updates2 days

This story has run 3 times over 2 days, starting Sep 22.

  1. UpdateCNN, MS NOW and Politico sue Trump over White House ban; TV pool suspends coverage
  2. UpdateFive television networks suspend White House pool coverage as Trump launches 24/7 streaming feed
  3. UpdateCNN, MS NOW and Politico remain barred from White House after Judge Kelly ends hearing without ruling — this issue
AXIOSUpdate

CNN, MS NOW and Politico remain barred from White House after Judge Kelly ends hearing without ruling

President Donald Trump’s ban left 78 journalists with press passes without access as of Sept. 23, according to Politico.

The hearing. U.S. District Judge Kelly said the White House had not followed required procedures before withdrawing the outlets’ access. He questioned how letters sent after reporters lost their press passes could give them advance notice of the rules. CBS News

The government’s case. The Justice Department cited national security and said the decisions to withdraw access were not yet final. It asked Kelly to wait until the outlets could respond. Kelly said he would decide ‘as soon as I can’; he set no ruling date. Politico

What next. The outlets have until Friday, Sept. 25, at 5 p.m. Eastern to contest the decision. The White House’s letters say the loss of access becomes final if the outlets do not respond. That deadline does not end the lawsuit. White House letter

Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues

On Sept. 18, Trump announced the ban on CNN, MS NOW and Politico over their coverage. Reporters were denied entry the next day (Sept. 19). On Sept. 21, the outlets sued. That day, the five-network television pool (networks that share coverage of presidential events) stopped providing that coverage in protest.

1 earlier issue
WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdate

White House denies plans for a 90-day diesel export ban after Trump calls for halting exports

Energy Secretary Chris Wright warns that stranded diesel would force refineries to cut production, raising gasoline and jet fuel prices.

On Sept. 23, the White House denied Politico’s report that officials were preparing a 90-day diesel export ban, according to The Hill. Donald Trump had said on Sept. 22 that he had asked his team to stop diesel exports. Wright ruled out a complete halt.

What next. Wright said a policy announcement would come later in the week, with the aim of increasing domestic diesel supply while keeping refineries running at full capacity. He did not specify the measures, the Washington Examiner reported.

On Sept. 22, diesel reached a reported $6.51 per gallon as Republicans pressed Trump to stop exports.

Quick bites17

  1. 10-year Treasury yield closes at 5.11%, its highest since 2007

    THE HILL

    The Treasury yield rose Wednesday, adding pressure for higher mortgage and business borrowing costs.

  2. Navy says eight Lincoln strike group sailors attempted suicide during its 10-month deployment.

    Update

    CBS NEWS: Navy says eight sailors attempted suicide during the Lincoln strike group’s 10-month deployment, which included combat against Iran and covered the USS Abraham Lincoln’s crew, air wing and other strike group ships.

    On Aug. 17, Central Command said Lincoln had among the Navy’s fewest mental health cases after 260 days at sea; the supplied text does not establish a shared scope or provide comparison figures.

  3. Trump administration plans to end ACA coverage for 760,000 people, alleging fraud

    ABC NEWS

    Vice President JD Vance claims the removals will save money; another 419,000 enrollments will face eligibility checks.

  4. ShinyHunters claims theft of private data on roughly 38,000 FBI employees and applicants; FBI investigates.

    PBS NEWSHOUR

    The group threatens publication unless the FBI retracts a May advisory describing it as a criminal group focused on extortion.

  5. OpenAI, Anthropic and Hugging Face leaders urge UN Security Council to back enforceable AI controls.

    AXIOS

    The supplied account does not name the leaders or explain what controls or council action they sought.

    Ongoing2

    This story has run 3 times over 11 days, starting Sep 13.

    1. Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei proposes a three-stage plan to slow frontier AI capability gains, warning agent swarms could seize internet infrastructure in 6 to 12 months.
    2. UpdateFour paid AI subscribers sue Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceXAI and Google over agreeing to slow AI down
    3. OpenAI, Anthropic and Hugging Face leaders urge UN Security Council to back enforceable AI controls. — this issue

  6. Marist poll finds Democrats leading Republicans 53%–41% among registered voters for Congress.

    Update2026 midterms

    Democrats lead Republicans 53%–41% for Congress in the PBS News/NPR/Marist poll of 1,280 registered voters, conducted Sept. 14–15. The margin of error is ±3.8 percentage points; 45% say their vote mainly opposes Trump, versus 24% supporting him.

    Currently showing Two questions, two distinct gaps
    Two questions, two distinct gaps
    Two questions, two distinct gapsTwo horizontal dumbbells share a percentage scale. Congressional preference among registered voters: Republican 41%, Democratic 53%. Vote mainly supports Trump: 24%; mainly opposes Trump: 45%. The respondent base for the motivation question is unspecified in the supplied story. Figures are attributed to PBS News/NPR/Marist and have not been independently verified. Sampling uncertainty is unavailable in the supplied story; no uncertainty intervals are fabricated. These separate questions do not establish causation or predict congressional control.Two questions, two distinct gapsCongressional preferenceRegistered votersRepublican 41%Democratic 53%Vote mainly supports or opposes TrumpBase unspecified in supplied storySupports 24%Opposes 45%0255075100Share selecting each response (%)Sampling uncertainty unavailablein supplied story. Figures unverified.Source: PBS News/NPR/Marist, via story
    Two questions, two distinct gaps

  7. Trump's approval is 37.6% in Nate Silver's polling average.

    NATE SILVERUpdate2026 midterms

    [PREVIOUSLY]

  8. Iowa judge dismisses Trump's lawsuit over Selzer poll showing Harris ahead in 2024.

    REUTERS2026 midterms

    Judge Scott Beattie ruled poll coverage is protected political speech, not a commercial product subject to Iowa's consumer fraud law.

  9. Trump's Board of Peace proposes $2.45 billion for 66 Gaza recovery projects over six months.

    BBC NEWSGaza and Hamas

    The proposal seeks donor funding for infrastructure, education and health projects, the Associated Press reports.

  10. US invites Putin to December’s G20 at Trump’s Miami golf club

    THE NEW YORK TIMESRussia-Ukraine war

    Putin has skipped recent G20 summits. The Kremlin said it was grateful and would discuss the invitation through diplomatic channels, without confirming Putin would attend.

  11. Zelensky (President, Ukraine) urges countries to limit trade with Russia to cut war funding

    NBC NEWSRussia-Ukraine war

    Wednesday’s attacks came before Ukrainian President Zelensky’s U.N. appeal, NBC News reported.

    Ongoing16

    This story has run 17 times over 29 days, starting Aug 26.

    1. CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
    2. CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
    3. CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
    4. UpdateCIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen
    5. Russian drone hits ammunition depot near Kyiv, killing 38; four remain missing
    6. Russia's finance minister returned to the G20 in person for the first time since the Ukraine invasion
    7. Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin in Moscow Sept. 5, Zelensky in Kyiv Sept. 6, carrying a U.S. proposal to end the war
    8. UpdatePutin orders 72-hour halt to strikes on Kyiv while Witkoff and Kushner visit, after a three-hour Kremlin meeting
    9. UpdateWitkoff and Kushner hold first Kyiv talks of the war, agreeing on next steps but no terms; announcement promised in weeks
    10. UpdateWitkoff says Moscow-Kyiv trip produced 'substantive progress' on scheduling more talks, with no date set and no terms disclosed
    11. UpdateRussia resumed strikes on Kyiv after the truce, killing 7; Trump and Putin then talked for an hour
    12. UpdateTrump says Russia's president wants a Ukraine peace deal after their phone call
    13. UpdateVladimir Putin warned that sending European troops into Ukraine means war with Russia.
    14. Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy truce Kyiv calls conditional
    15. Trump and Zelensky agree to New York talks, expected Sept. 22
    16. UpdateZelensky asks Trump for a mutual halt on energy and port strikes
    17. Zelensky (President, Ukraine) urges countries to limit trade with Russia to cut war funding — this issue

  12. Fed Governor Michael Barr says more rate increases are likely to counter inflation

    THE HILLInflation and the Fed

    White House response:

    • Hassett directed his criticism at Fed officials not appointed by Trump.
    Ongoing6

    This story has run 7 times over 12 days, starting Sep 12.

    1. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the year, lifting September Fed rate hike odds above 80%
    2. Trump threatens trade cutoff with some nations unless Fed lowers rates despite 3.4% inflation
    3. Update10-year Treasury yield hit 5.014% Monday, Sept. 14, first time since October 2023
    4. Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark rate a quarter point on Wednesday, Sept. 16, its first hike in three years.
    5. UpdateFed raises its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since July 2023
    6. UpdateChicago Fed's Goolsbee says getting inflation to 2% will be 'painful' and require pushing employment below target
    7. Fed Governor Michael Barr says more rate increases are likely to counter inflation — this issue

  13. Iraq, Oman and Azerbaijan suspend some Iran flights after US sanctions threats.

    Iran war

    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatened to bar firms from the dollar system for supplying Iranian airlines with fuel, landing services or ticket sales, Oman Observer reports.

  14. DHS officials say ICE officer who shot Austin driver wasn’t wearing his body camera

    THE ATLANTICUpdateImmigration enforcement

    His partner’s camera was recording, and a judge blocked Garcés Pérez’s deportation until a Sept. 30 hearing. On Sept. 22, Garcés Pérez remained detained with the bullet still in his back.

  15. Guatemalan worker dies in crash fleeing attempted ICE stop in Grand Rapids

    NBC NEWSImmigration enforcement

    Gretchen Whitmer (Gov-D Michigan) ordered an independent state police review after Mario David Coronado Juárez, 36, died Sept. 20.

  16. Australia’s prime minister says an OpenAI agent breached a government health website

    REUTERS

    Anthony Albanese called the alleged June 2026 incident ‘obviously unacceptable.’

  17. RFK Jr.'s ethics disclosure reveals $4M in book advances from MAHA allies and free travel

    THE GUARDIAN
    THE GUARDIAN
Election Bites1 bite

  1. Missouri redistricting opponents ask Supreme Court to block map favoring Republicans in seven seats

    FOX NEWSUpdate2026 midterms

    FOX NEWS: People Not Politicians asks Supreme Court to block Missouri map favoring Republicans in seven of eight House seats, up from six

    Fox News reported that its late Tuesday request brought the dispute before the justices a third time. Absentee voting has begun under 2022 districts.

Elections22 races

The midterms · 40 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 93%, Kalshi 92%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 67%, Kalshi 65%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 92.05–92.50%
93%92%chance Democrats take it · 0.4pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 93% and Kalshi 92%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 64.5–66.5%
67%65%chance Democrats take it · 2.0pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 67% and Kalshi 65%.

3 closest races

  • abNevada governorJoe Lombardo 52.0%Aaron Ford 48.5%▲2.8

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and it is a dead heat — the two sides are priced within four points of each other.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 4.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • wIowa SenateAshley Hinson 53.5%Josh Turek 46.5%▲6.9

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead after the Democratic side gained about seven points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 4.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 51.5%, Kalshi 55.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 47.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aaGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 54.5%Rick Jackson 45.5%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 13 still in doubt · Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate9 of 10

  • vAlaska SenateMary Peltola 74.8%▲5.4Dan Sullivan 25.5%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead after Sullivan lost about six points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 75.0%, Kalshi 74.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 24.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • adGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 94.40%▲1.3Collins 5.53%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 94.5%, Kalshi 94.3%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 5.40%, Kalshi 5.65%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • tMaine SenateTroy Jackson 73.0%▲4.1Susan Collins 27.0%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 72.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • xMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 73.0%▲8.4Mike Rogers 27.0%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: the Republican side is down about nine points.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 27%, Kalshi 27%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aeNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 67.5%Dan Osborn 33.3%▲1.4

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 34.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • afNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 85.5%▲4.514.8%Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about five points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 85.5%, Kalshi 85.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 14.0%, Kalshi 15.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • acNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 93.9%▲1.9Whatley 6.6%

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.2pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 94.5%, Kalshi 93.3%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 6.5%, Kalshi 6.7%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yOhio SenateSherrod Brown 61.0%▲7.2Jon Husted 38.5%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead after the Republican side lost about eight points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 4.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 62.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • uTexas SenateJames Talarico 60.5%▲3.7Ken Paxton 40.5%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

    The Democratic side holds a clear lead after gaining about four points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 4.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 62.5%, Kalshi 58.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors10 of 12

  • ahAlaska governor16.00%83.3%WilsonBegich 0.73%▲7.8

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a clear lead after losing about eight points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.8pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 16%, Kalshi 16%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.10%, Kalshi 0.35%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.8pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • ajArizona governorKatie Hobbs 89.0%▲1.711.0%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 89.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 11.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • anFlorida governorByron Donalds 72.5%27.5%▲7.3Jolly

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead after the Democratic side gained about seven points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 72.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • agIowa governorRob Sand 82.8%▲4.9Lahn 17.0%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about five points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 83.0%, Kalshi 82.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 16.5%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aiMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 92.7%▲1.2James 6.8%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 92.5%, Kalshi 92.8%; John James (R): Polymarket 6.5%, Kalshi 7.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • alNew York governorKathy Hochul 94.5%▲1.7Blakeman 5.4%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.8pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 95.0%, Kalshi 93.9%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.5%, Kalshi 6.3%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.8pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • sOhio governorAmy Acton 61.0%▲6.2Vivek Ramaswamy 39.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead after gaining about six points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 61.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 39.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • amPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 97.00%Garrity 2.90%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.7pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.65%, Kalshi 97.35%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.95%, Kalshi 2.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.7pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • akTexas governorGreg Abbott 74.2%26.0%▲6.0Hinojosa

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead after losing about seven points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 74.8%, Kalshi 73.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • zWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 84.0%▲2.016.3%Tiffany

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 84.5%, Kalshi 83.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 15.5%, Kalshi 17.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 23, 8:48 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

11 stories that didn't make the cutSeen by the desk, ranked, and not run. The number is where each stood in the day's order.
  • 49White House launches 24/7 'Trump TV' streaming channel after the press banWhite House launches 24/7 'Trump TV' streaming channel after the press ban
  • 50Sanders and Casar introduce bill banning artificial superintelligence and creating a Department of AISanders and Casar introduce bill banning artificial superintelligence and creating a Department of AI
  • 51Congressional maneuvering on AI guardrails: Thune says Trump may listen, bipartisan oversight bills, whistleblower fast-trackCongressional maneuvering on AI guardrails: Thune says Trump may listen, bipartisan oversight bills, whistleblower fast-track
  • 52First Senate hearing on Flock's AI license-plate surveillance; senators blast the company as CEOs skipFirst Senate hearing on Flock's AI license-plate surveillance; senators blast the company as CEOs skip
  • 53Five Indianapolis officers charged with abusing Flock license plate readers after Post reportingFive Indianapolis officers charged with abusing Flock license plate readers after Post reporting
  • 54White House backs down from an executive order asserting control over NIH grantsWhite House backs down from an executive order asserting control over NIH grants
  • 55FDA advisers vote in favor of Grail's multi-cancer blood testFDA advisers vote in favor of Grail's multi-cancer blood test
  • 57California AG's settlement clearing the Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger, Newsom pressure denials, and what it means for CNNCalifornia AG's settlement clearing the Paramount-Warner Bros.
  • 58ICE detention conditions and expansion: whistleblower photos of Miramar overcrowding and plans for 'mobile detention facilities'ICE detention conditions and expansion: whistleblower photos of Miramar overcrowding and plans for 'mobile detention facilities'
  • 59Local and public backlash to data centers: Chicago's proposed moratorium, a New Jersey fine, and polling showing broad oppositionLocal and public backlash to data centers: Chicago's proposed moratorium, a New Jersey fine, and polling showing broad opposition
  • 62GOP push to probe Donald Trump Jr.'s Russian oligarch-funded wedding party, and pushback calling it 'Russiagate 2.0'GOP push to probe Donald Trump Jr.'s Russian oligarch-funded wedding party, and pushback calling it 'Russiagate 2.0'

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