Political Guyentist

Saturday · The daily brief

Oct 102026

8 leads34 briefs24 min

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Executive summary8 stories

News news5

  1. Treasury lifts U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel until April 7, 2027, after Trump says Russia will send 4.8 million tonsNo Russian promise to stop striking Ukraine's power grid was disclosed; Zelensky called it "a happy birthday present for Putin."
  2. Hurricane Isaias reaches Category 3 with 120-mph winds before an expected landfall near Pensacola Friday night, Oct. 9Forecasters warn of up to 9 feet of water over normally dry land from the Santa Rosa/Okaloosa county line to Grayton Beach, Fla., if peak surge hits at high tide.
  3. DHS says ICE officers shot Oscar Belgal because he drove at them; a judge bars his deportation while he challenges his detentionThe officers go on administrative leave, and ICE has not released its own body-camera footage of the shooting.
  4. Trump sets a closed White House hearing for Nov. 5 on whether he has cause to fire Fed Governor Lisa CookThe three judges are his own appointees: economic adviser Kevin Hassett, the EEOC chair and the federal ethics director. The date is two days after the Tuesday, Nov. 3 midterms.
  5. Vance doubts the Pentagon will livestream Nidal Hasan's Dec. 3 execution as GOP senators, Catholic bishops and the UN objectTrump said he "absolutely" approved the execution, and legal experts say probably only Hasan himself could sue to stop the stream.

Not news news3

  1. US measles cases reach 4,080 this year, the most since 1991, with Pennsylvania at 1,105Pennsylvania reports five measles deaths; the CDC recognizes two of them.
  2. Fed survey finds top 10% of earners' average income fell 14% from 2021 to 2024 while their median wealth rose 31% from 2022 to 2025The typical family's income rose 7% over the same years, but its net worth rose only 2%, to $215,900, and its median bank-account balance fell 6%, to $8,200.
  3. FBI Director Kash Patel plans a trip to Russia three weeks before the midterms, The Atlantic reports, after FBI and Justice Department officials failed to stop itJamie Raskin (Rep-D Maryland) and Jim Himes (Rep-D Connecticut), the top Democrats on the House Judiciary and Intelligence committees, asked him on Friday, Oct. 9, to cancel.

News news5 stories

Ongoing22 earlier updates45 days

This story has run 23 times over 45 days, starting Aug 26.

  1. CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
  2. CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
  3. CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
  4. UpdateCIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen
  5. Russian drone hits ammunition depot near Kyiv, killing 38; four remain missing
  6. Russia's finance minister returned to the G20 in person for the first time since the Ukraine invasion
  7. Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin in Moscow Sept. 5, Zelensky in Kyiv Sept. 6, carrying a U.S. proposal to end the war
  8. UpdatePutin orders 72-hour halt to strikes on Kyiv while Witkoff and Kushner visit, after a three-hour Kremlin meeting
  9. UpdateWitkoff and Kushner hold first Kyiv talks of the war, agreeing on next steps but no terms; announcement promised in weeks
  10. UpdateWitkoff says Moscow-Kyiv trip produced 'substantive progress' on scheduling more talks, with no date set and no terms disclosed
  11. UpdateRussia resumed strikes on Kyiv after the truce, killing 7; Trump and Putin then talked for an hour
  12. UpdateTrump says Russia's president wants a Ukraine peace deal after their phone call
  13. House schedules vote next week on authorizing 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers
  14. UpdateVladimir Putin warned that sending European troops into Ukraine means war with Russia.
  15. Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy truce Kyiv calls conditional
  16. UpdateThe House voted 214-211 to advance 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil
  17. UpdateCongress sends Trump a bill letting him impose 100% tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil
  18. UpdateTrump signs the bill authorizing 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil
  19. Trump and Zelensky agree to New York talks, expected Sept. 22
  20. UpdateZelensky asks Trump for a mutual halt on energy and port strikes
  21. Zelensky (President, Ukraine) urges countries to limit trade with Russia to cut war funding
  22. UpdatePutin added a sale of Lukoil's foreign oil assets to US-Russia Ukraine talks; the buyers include Witkoff and Kushner business partners
  23. UpdateTreasury lifts U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel until April 7, 2027, after Trump says Russia will send 4.8 million tons — this issue
PBS NEWSHOURUpdateRussia-Ukraine war

Treasury lifts U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel until April 7, 2027, after Trump says Russia will send 4.8 million tons

No Russian promise to stop striking Ukraine's power grid was disclosed; Zelensky called it "a happy birthday present for Putin."

Trump said that after a call with Vladimir Putin (President, Russia), Russia agreed to send diesel to U.S. and world markets. Treasury then issued a temporary license, dated Friday, Oct. 9, that allows Russian diesel to be sold, shipped and imported into the U.S. It sets no tonnage cap.

Kyiv's reaction. Volodymyr Zelensky (President, Ukraine) said his team learned of it about an hour before Trump spoke, while meeting envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Miami. "I believe our team is simply being used as a smokescreen," he told Politico.

The deliveries. Trump announced:

Immediately
300,000 tons
November
500,000 tons
Right after that
1,000,000 tons
([TS]CBS puts this one in December)
Later, if Russia's refineries allow
3,000,000 tons

Still open. The White House has not said who pays or when the fuel arrives. Russia's own ban on diesel exports runs through the end of October.

Catch upwhat happened before · 22 earlier issues
  • Sept. 10 — After a phone call, Trump said Putin wants a Ukraine peace deal.
  • Sept. 13 — Putin warned European troops in Ukraine would mean war; Moscow rejected Europe's peace plans.
  • Sept. 15 — Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy truce that Kyiv called conditional.
  • Sept. 16–18 — The House passed, 262-159, a bill allowing steep tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil; Trump signed it.
  • Sept. 21 — Trump pressed Zelensky to stop hitting Russian refineries, citing diesel prices.
  • Sept. 23 — Zelensky asked Trump for a mutual halt on energy and port strikes.
  • Oct. 4 — Putin added a sale of Lukoil's foreign oil assets to talks; buyers include Witkoff and Kushner business partners.
  • Oct. 9 — Witkoff and Kushner met Ukrainian and European officials in Miami.
21 earlier issues
BackgroundWhat Treasury's diesel license permits, and what it still blocks3 facts
  • It bars Russia's central bank, National Wealth Fund and Finance Ministry from drawing on accounts at U.S. banks.
  • It does not cite the waiver in the Sept. 18 sanctions law, which requires Trump to send Congress a written national-interest certification first.
  • At the Oct. 8 gasoil price, all 4.8 million tons is worth about $7.24 billion; no buyer or price has been disclosed.

A stacked bar of the House vote: 262 yes and 159 no, 421 votes cast, so 62 percent of those voting said yes.

Chart

The House voted 262–159

103-vote margin, out of 421 votes cast.

The House voted 262–159A stacked bar of the House vote: 262 yes and 159 no, 421 votes cast, so 62 percent of those voting said yes. A reference line at 218 is labelled "218 for a majority of the full 435-seat House".
YesNo
The numbers
The House voted 262–159
VotesYesNo
House roll call262 votes159 votes
Source: House roll call, reported by PBS NewshourPOLI

Red take

Trump's diesel deal puts fuel on American and world markets before winter without unlocking the money Putin wants most: Treasury's license still bars Russia's central bank, wealth fund and Finance Ministry from drawing on accounts at U.S. banks. Russia's export ban runs only through October, so the 4.8 million tons can follow. Turning them away would keep diesel prices up while Moscow's reserves stay frozen.

Blue take

No Russian promise to stop striking Ukraine's power grid was disclosed, yet Treasury handed Vladimir Putin, Russia's president, a sanctions break through April 7, 2027, for diesel his own export ban withholds through October. The license does not even cite the waiver in the Russia sanctions law Trump signed in September, which requires him to certify to Congress in writing that it serves the national interest. Ukraine's grid enters winter still a target.

Ongoing1 earlier update

This story has run 2 times, starting Oct 9.

  1. Hurricane Isaias strengthens to Category 2 and heads for a Gulf Coast landfall late Friday, Oct. 9
  2. UpdateHurricane Isaias reaches Category 3 with 120-mph winds before an expected landfall near Pensacola Friday night, Oct. 9 — this issue
ABC NEWSUpdate

Hurricane Isaias reaches Category 3 with 120-mph winds before an expected landfall near Pensacola Friday night, Oct. 9

Forecasters warn of up to 9 feet of water over normally dry land from the Santa Rosa/Okaloosa county line to Grayton Beach, Fla., if peak surge hits at high tide.

Isaias, the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season, became a major Category 3 storm at 8:20 a.m. ET Friday, Oct. 9, with winds up to 120 mph. At 3 p.m. it was 125 miles south of Pensacola, Fla., with landfall expected between 8 and 10 p.m.

The coast. Florida has 25 counties under a state of emergency, and Panhandle counties have ordered coastal evacuations. Forecasters expect 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated totals of 15 inches. Chevron and Shell are shutting Gulf oil production and evacuating offshore facilities.

The agency. Experts quoted by the Guardian call Isaias the biggest test yet for a FEMA cut back under Trump. More than 4,300 FEMA employees, about 17% of its workforce, left in fiscal 2025, per the Government Accountability Office. Fifty-eight senior executives left from January 2025 to January 2026; about 13 a year left before that.

“It's not whether Fema is going to respond. They're going to respond. It's more about the depth.”Chris Currie, Government Accountability Office

Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

By Thursday, Oct. 8, Isaias had grown to a Category 2 hurricane aimed at the Gulf Coast, and Alabama, Florida and Georgia declared states of emergency as Panhandle counties began ordering coastal evacuations. It set up Florida's first hurricane landfall in two years.

What the Panhandle evacuation orders cover and cut offEscambia County: Zones A and B, including Pensacola Beach and Perdido Key, plus all mobile homes, from noon Thursday, Oct. 83 details
  • Escambia County: Zones A and B, including Pensacola Beach and Perdido Key, plus all mobile homes, from noon Thursday, Oct. 8
  • Santa Rosa County: Zones A and B, low-lying areas and mobile homes from 12:30 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 8;
  • Okaloosa County: ; shelters at Davidson Middle School in Crestview and Raider Arena in Niceville
Ongoing2 earlier updates18 days

This story has run 3 times over 18 days, starting Sep 22.

  1. UpdateMan shot once in the back by an ICE officer in Austin is held at a detention center with the bullet still in him, his lawyer says
  2. UpdateVenezuelan driver shot by ICE is rehospitalized after detention with bullet near spine
  3. UpdateDHS says ICE officers shot Oscar Belgal because he drove at them; a judge bars his deportation while he challenges his detention — this issue
TIMEUpdateImmigration enforcement

DHS says ICE officers shot Oscar Belgal because he drove at them; a judge bars his deportation while he challenges his detention

The officers go on administrative leave, and ICE has not released its own body-camera footage of the shooting.

DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin and ICE official Marcos Charles said officers shot Oscar Belgal, a 28-year-old Dominican man, after he rammed two ICE vehicles and then sped toward officers. NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch said seven rounds were fired. The officers will be on administrative leave while the shooting is investigated.

DHS's account. Mullin said officers did not know Belgal's 5-year-old son was in the car. He called Mayor Zohran Mamdani's response "political theater." He also said Trump offered to hand Belgal to NYPD custody if the city brought charges, and that Mamdani declined. NYPD said 5 people were taken into custody at protests on Thursday night (Oct. 8).

The footage. NYPD surveillance video shows one agent at the driver's window with a gun drawn and another near the front of the SUV. The car then moves out of view before the shots. NYPD has released its own officers' body-camera footage of the aftermath. ICE's body cameras were on, but that footage has not been released.

The court. Judge Paul Oetken barred Belgal's deportation, and any move out of the New York City area or New Jersey, while his habeas petition is pending. A habeas petition is a demand that the government justify holding someone, and this one seeks his release. Belgal is held at an undisclosed site outside the city. Judge John Cronan took over the case and held a hearing Friday, Oct. 9.

What next. Belgal's lawyers owe the court a letter on Tuesday, Oct. 13. It must address the government's claim that he was already in New Jersey when they filed.

Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues

On Sept. 15, ICE quietly stopped listing detainees with final deportation orders in its public online locator, making it harder to find where they are held. This week an ICE officer shot Oscar Belgal in his car in Manhattan's Marble Hill with his 5-year-old son in the back seat, and Mayor Zohran Mamdani said he would ask Trump to end ICE enforcement in the city.

1 earlier issue
Ongoing11 earlier updates29 days

This story has run 12 times over 29 days, starting Sep 11.

  1. August inflation holds at 3.4% annually; gasoline drives monthly increase
  2. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the year, lifting September Fed rate hike odds above 80%
  3. Trump threatens trade cutoff with some nations unless Fed lowers rates despite 3.4% inflation
  4. Update10-year Treasury yield hit 5.014% Monday, Sept. 14, first time since October 2023
  5. Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark rate a quarter point on Wednesday, Sept. 16, its first hike in three years.
  6. UpdateFed raises its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since July 2023
  7. UpdateChicago Fed's Goolsbee says getting inflation to 2% will be 'painful' and require pushing employment below target
  8. Fed Governor Michael Barr says more rate increases are likely to counter inflation
  9. UpdateAugust PCE inflation was 3.4%, below the 3.7% forecast, cutting October Fed hike odds to 35% from 45%
  10. Markets pull back bets on October Fed and ECB rate hikes after weak US jobs data
  11. UpdateFed minutes show most officials expect another rate hike by year end
  12. Trump sets a closed White House hearing for Nov. 5 on whether he has cause to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook — this issue
NBC NEWS2026 midterms

Trump sets a closed White House hearing for Nov. 5 on whether he has cause to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook

The three judges are his own appointees: economic adviser Kevin Hassett, the EEOC chair and the federal ethics director. The date is two days after the Tuesday, Nov. 3 midterms.

Trump created a "committee of inquiry" to examine mortgage-fraud allegations against Fed Governor Lisa Cook and to report whether there is "cause" to remove her from the Federal Reserve Board. It follows a 5-4 Supreme Court ruling in June that let Cook keep her seat because she had not been given due process (notice and a fair chance to defend herself before being fired).

The hearing. It runs up to four hours at the White House on Thursday, Nov. 5, two days after the Tuesday, Nov. 3 midterms. It is closed to the public, and a transcript will be published afterward. Cook must file a written statement three days before.

Cook's side. Her lawyers, Abbe Lowell and Norm Eisen, wrote that "we have grave doubts that this 'hearing' is a legitimate one," but said she may still appear.

What Cook's own paperwork in this case says about the Atlanta houseStandard loan forms listed both her Michigan and Atlanta homes as primary residences, per Reuters.3 details
  • Standard loan forms listed both her Michigan and Atlanta homes as primary residences, per Reuters.
  • An Atlanta loan estimate dated May 28, 2021 labeled the house a vacation home.
  • A December 2021 security-clearance form listed it as a second home.

Red take

Lisa Cook's own paperwork makes the case: standard loan forms listed both her Michigan and Atlanta homes as primary residences, while a May 28, 2021 loan estimate called the Atlanta house a vacation home. The panel now gives her the notice and chance to defend herself that the Supreme Court said she was denied. If it finds cause, she should go, or a Fed seat exempts its holder from rules every borrower signs.

Blue take

Kevin Hassett, Trump's economic adviser, and two more Trump appointees will judge Lisa Cook behind closed doors, then Trump decides himself: a firing with a transcript attached. Cook is charged with no crime, over a label her lawyers call an inadvertent error. No president in the Fed's 113-year history had tried to remove a governor before; if this works, every governor voting on rates learns her seat depends on pleasing the White House.

Ongoing2 earlier updates3 days

This story has run 3 times over 3 days, starting Oct 7.

  1. Trump approves Army firing-squad execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan, set for Dec. 3
  2. UpdatePentagon will livestream Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan's Dec. 3 firing-squad execution
  3. UpdateVance doubts the Pentagon will livestream Nidal Hasan's Dec. 3 execution as GOP senators, Catholic bishops and the UN object — this issue
WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdate

Vance doubts the Pentagon will livestream Nidal Hasan's Dec. 3 execution as GOP senators, Catholic bishops and the UN object

Trump said he "absolutely" approved the execution, and legal experts say probably only Hasan himself could sue to stop the stream.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth plans to stream the Army's firing-squad execution of Nidal Hasan, who killed 13 people at Fort Hood in 2009. Vice President JD Vance said he doubted the stream would happen and that he would not watch.

“I've seen these announcements. I don't know that that's going to happen.”Vice President JD Vance

The objections. Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina) backs the death sentence but condemned the stream. John Curtis (Sen-R Utah) said broadcasting death feeds an appetite for violent spectacle. Archbishop Paul Coakley, president of the U.S. Catholic bishops, called it “a barbaric promotion of a culture of death.” The UN human rights office said a broadcast would breach the absolute ban on torture.

The backers. Trump: “Did I approve? Absolutely, I approve.” Andy Ogles (Rep-R Tennessee): “Public execution is what this terrorist deserves. We will be watching.” Hegseth, asked about Hasan's final requests: “Don't care. We'll see him on December 3.”

The legal question. Army Regulation 190-55 bars anyone under 18 from witnessing an execution; experts split on whether online viewers count as witnesses.

What next. The Pentagon has not named a platform and has promised more details. The execution is set for 1 p.m. Thursday, Dec. 3, at Fort Hood, timed to echo the hour of the 2009 attack.

Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues

Trump approved Hegseth's recommendation to execute Hasan by firing squad (Friday, Oct. 2, per Acting Army Secretary Adam Telle), and the Army set the date for Dec. 3. Days later, Hegseth said the execution would be public, and a Pentagon official said it would stream on a platform not yet named.

1 earlier issue
BackgroundWhat Hasan's remaining legal routes could still stop3 facts
  • His military appeals are finished; the Supreme Court declined to hear his case in 2025.
  • His lawyer, John Galligan, told ABC a federal habeas petition (a challenge to his custody) is possible but undecided.
  • The likely court, the federal District of Kansas, stayed Ronald Gray's scheduled military execution in Nov. 2008.

Quick bites12

Courts2 bites

  1. Federal judge voids DOJ policy of collecting state voter rolls to check against immigration databases

    CNNImmigration enforcement

    US District Judge Sparkle Sooknanan ruled the policy broke the Privacy Act and exceeded federal authority, since Congress left voter-roll upkeep to the states. The Supreme Court temporarily set aside her earlier June ruling against the administration.

    • Sooknanan's ruling runs 78 pages.
    • About 18 states had already handed their voter files to DOJ.
    • Common Cause sued after DOJ requested state voter data in May.

  2. Manhattan DA says Mangione's federal stalking plea doesn't bar his state murder trial

    CNN

    Prosecutors argue his Aug. 14 guilty plea to two federal stalking charges punishes a different "harm or evil" than murder, and that the dismissed federal weapons counts "do not constitute a separate prosecution."

    • Oct. 30 — deadline for Mangione's defense to reply
    • Dec. 10 — next state court date
International justice under fire2 bites

  1. US imposes blocking sanctions on the ICC itself, cutting the court off from US banking, technology and dollars

    THE HILL

    Secretary of State Marco Rubio's order is the administration's first against the court as an institution rather than its officials, and it gives US companies 180 days to wind down business with it.

    • Earlier targets: 17 ICC-linked individuals, per Fox News, including ICC President Tomoko Akane in August.
    • Court membership: 125 countries are ICC states parties.
    • Rubio: "Either the ICC will end its threats, or we will end the ICC." The court called the sanctions "an assault on the rule of law."

  2. South African jurist Navi Pillay, 85, wins Nobel Peace Prize; Israel condemns it over her Gaza genocide finding

    PBS NEWSHOURGaza and Hamas

    Pillay led the UN panel that found in September 2025 that Israel had committed genocide in Gaza. Israel's Foreign Ministry called it "the grotesque weaponization of an award to legitimize anti-Israel hatred." Trump has wanted the prize. He criticized the Nobel committee.

    Also on the recordPillay is South Africa's 5th Nobel Peace Prize laureate (BBC).3 details
    • Pillay is South Africa's 5th Nobel Peace Prize laureate (BBC).
    • Nobel chair Jørgen Watne Frydnes couldn't reach her in advance: "if you see a Norwegian number calling, please pick up."
    • Pillay, hearing the news: "If you clap a little bit more, I may share this prize with Trump."
Trump's appointees2 bites

  1. State Dept inspector general investigates Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle over alleged $100,000 request to a donor

    NBC NEWSUpdate

    The State Department's inspector general is investigating Guilfoyle and the Athens embassy. GOP donor Eric Deters says she asked him to help pay her American Express bill before her confirmation hearing. Trump said "too bad." Vance said there should be consequences if "something bad" happened, and her lawyer disputes that the messages are real.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues

    On Oct. 7, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Guilfoyle "a strong ambassador" in Athens. A day later, messages surfaced showing she asked Deters to put $100,000 toward her American Express bill before her hearing. By Oct. 9, Deters called it "pay to play" and said he never paid. House Democrats demanded her records by Oct. 22. CBS reported White House officials were told the texts are authentic.

    1 earlier issue
    The allegationThe "Honey please" Signal message is dated July 3, 2025, six days before her July 9 confirmation hearing.3 details
    • The "Honey please" Signal message is dated July 3, 2025, six days before her July 9 confirmation hearing.
    • A call log shows 8 calls between Guilfoyle and Deters from June to early July 2025.
    • Deters told PBS his motive is "revenge." He blames the administration's refusal to help extradite Dr. Durrani.
    Ongoing2

    This story has run 3 times over 2 days, starting Oct 8.

    1. Kimberly Guilfoyle asked a Trump donor to wire $100,000 to her American Express bill before her ambassador confirmation hearing, messages show
    2. UpdateDonor says Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle's $100,000 credit-card request was 'pay to play'; House Democrats request her records by Oct. 22
    3. UpdateState Dept inspector general investigates Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle over alleged $100,000 request to a donor — this issue

  2. Trump names Truth Social adviser Katie Zacharia White House press secretary, replacing Karoline Leavitt

    FOX NEWS

    Zacharia, a senior communications adviser at Trump Media and a former DHS spokesperson, accepted on X. He fills a podium that has gone 36 days without a formal briefing, since Vice President JD Vance held the last one on Sept. 3.

    • Zacharia is the 6th consecutive woman to serve as press secretary, per The Hill.
    • Her DHS stint is reported as February–March 2026 (Washington Examiner, BBC) or about two months ending in April (Axios).
    • Trump last week: "We're doing an extremely poor job of promotion, and an extremely great job of running the country."
Also tonight1 bite

  1. ATF stops enforcing registration of suppressors and short-barreled rifles and shotguns for everyone, nationwide

    ABC NEWS

    A Texas judge's August ruling covered only the plaintiffs, who included 15 Republican-led states, but ATF is applying it to everyone starting Oct. 9.

    How it got hereCongress eliminated the NFA tax on these items, which led Judge Hendrix to strike the registration rules in August.3 details
    • Congress eliminated the NFA tax on these items, which led Judge Hendrix to strike the registration rules in August.
    • The DOJ did not appeal the ruling, on Trump's order.
    • State and local gun laws still apply, and the NFA tax remains on machine guns and destructive devices.
Elections5 bites

  1. Cook Political Report shifts 18 House races toward Democrats and projects a 9–19 seat Democratic gain

    AXIOS

    The moves include seats held by Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Rep-R Iowa), Zach Nunn (Rep-R Iowa), Scott Perry (Rep-R Pennsylvania) and Brian Fitzpatrick (Rep-R Pennsylvania), and would put Democrats at 224–234 seats.

    The toss-up mathToss-ups: 15 held by Republicans vs. 6 held by Democrats3 details
    • Toss-ups: 15 held by Republicans vs. 6 held by Democrats
    • Democrats need about 20% of toss-ups for a majority
    • 5 races moved from Toss Up to Lean Democrat

  2. Trump calls Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed a "Jihadist lunatic" after his first debate with Mike Rogers

    FOX NEWSUpdate

    Shortly after midnight Trump posted that Mike Rogers (R-MI) "obliterated" El-Sayed (D-MI) and that "Mohammad is a Jihadist lunatic who hates our Country," and El-Sayed answered, "He knows my name is Abdul. He says it every day."

    Catch upwhat happened before · 4 earlier issues
    • Sep. 23 — Kamala Harris campaigned in Detroit to firm up Black support for El-Sayed in a seat Democrats must hold.
    • Oct. 6 — Obama scheduled an Oct. 24 Detroit rally for El-Sayed, timed to the first day of Michigan's statewide early voting.
    • Oct. 8 — Rogers, in an NRSC co-funded ad, called for ending the Canada tariff war now; that night the two traded personal attacks in their first debate.
    3 earlier issues
    The Michigan math so farRogers lost Michigan's 2024 Senate race to Elissa Slotkin by just under 20,000 votes.3 details
    • Rogers lost Michigan's 2024 Senate race to Elissa Slotkin by just under 20,000 votes.
    • Democrats need to flip 4 Republican-held seats, and hold Michigan, to win the Senate.
    • In Maine's debate the same night, Susan Collins (Sen-R Maine) said she has voted against Trump 137 times this Congress.
    Ongoing4

    This story has run 5 times over 17 days, starting Sep 23.

    1. Kamala Harris campaigns in Detroit to shore up Black voters for Abdul El-Sayed
    2. Obama will campaign in Detroit on Oct. 24 for Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed (D-MI)
    3. Michigan GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers says in NRSC co-funded ad to end Canada tariff war now
    4. Michigan Senate candidates El-Sayed and Rogers trade personal attacks in their first debate
    5. UpdateTrump calls Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed a "Jihadist lunatic" after his first debate with Mike Rogers — this issue

  3. Democrats' Senate Majority PAC starts $5 million Kansas ad buy against Sen. Roger Marshall

    POLITICOUpdate

    The Schumer-aligned Senate Majority PAC is spending $5 million on Kansas TV ads from Saturday, Oct. 10, through Election Day, vs. more than $10 million the GOP's Senate Leadership Fund has booked. The money backs Adam Hamilton (D-KS) against Roger Marshall (Sen-R Kansas). The first ad hits Marshall for voting to table an amendment to release the Epstein files.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues

    On Sept. 30, Republicans shifted Senate money to defend Texas and sent Trump to Ohio as Georgia and North Carolina slipped. On Oct. 7, Cook moved Kansas to toss-up and projected Democrats gaining 2 to 6 Senate seats; they need 4 for a majority.

    1 earlier issue
    Where the race standsNYT: Hamilton narrowly leads in recent polls.3 details
    • NYT: Hamilton narrowly leads in recent polls.
    • Co/Efficient (R) poll: Marshall +5, which James Surowiecki called "not good news for Republicans."
    • SMP spokesperson Lauren French: "The gap is closing in Kansas."
    Ongoing2

    This story has run 3 times over 10 days, starting Sep 30.

    1. Republicans move Senate money to defend Texas and send Trump to Ohio as Georgia and North Carolina slip
    2. Cook moves Kansas Senate race to toss-up and shifts North Carolina and New Hampshire toward Democrats
    3. UpdateDemocrats' Senate Majority PAC starts $5 million Kansas ad buy against Sen. Roger Marshall — this issue

  4. Democrat Troy Jackson leads Sen. Susan Collins 50% to 46% in Maine, Post-Schar poll finds

    THE WASHINGTON POST2026 midterms

    In the Sept. 30–Oct. 5 poll, 51% of voters view Collins unfavorably and 43% view Jackson unfavorably, though voters favor Collins on bringing federal money to Maine.

    Inside the numbersTrump approval in Maine: 36%3 details
    • Trump approval in Maine: 36%
    • Say Collins too supportive of Trump: 58%
    • Voters favor Collins on bringing home federal dollars
    Ongoing3

    This story has run 4 times over 17 days, starting Sep 23.

    1. FBI sought a bribery probe touching Susan Collins before anti-corruption units were dismantled
    2. Navatek CEO told FBI agents Susan Collins promised $32 million in Navy contracts
    3. Susan Collins and Troy Jackson clash on court picks, health care, ICE and tariffs in first Maine debate
    4. Democrat Troy Jackson leads Sen. Susan Collins 50% to 46% in Maine, Post-Schar poll finds — this issue

  5. Talarico returns to Texas Senate trail after flu absence; Trump says Paxton should debate him

    WASHINGTON EXAMINER

    Democrat James Talarico (D-TX) reappeared Friday, Oct. 9, at Austin City Limits after no in-person campaign events since Sept. 26, which his campaign blamed on the flu, and answered Trump's call for a debate with Attorney General Ken Paxton: "I agree. Ball's in your court."

    • Absence length is disputed: 13 days per the Washington Examiner, 10 days per Bloomberg.
    • Ad spending by campaigns and outside groups tops $247 million, per AdImpact (PBS NewsHour).
    • Paxton, Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz all mocked the absence.

Elections22 races

The midterms · 24 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Oct 9, 11:09 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 91%, Kalshi 90%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 63%, Kalshi 61%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 89.5–90.5%
91%90%chance Democrats take it · 1.0pp apart · both venues down this week
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 91% and Kalshi 90%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 60.5–62.5%
63%61%chance Democrats take it · 2.0pp apart · both venues down this week
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 63% and Kalshi 61%.

3 closest races

  • vNevada governorAaron Ford 53.0%▲2.9Joe Lombardo 47.0%

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Aaron Ford (D) faces Joe Lombardo (R).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Oct 9, 11:09 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 51.5%; Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 48.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • uGeorgia governorRick Jackson 53.8%Keisha Lance Bottoms 46.5%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Rick Jackson (R) faces Keisha Lance Bottoms (D).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Oct 9, 11:09 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 53.0%, Kalshi 54.5%; Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 47.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • qIowa SenateAshley Hinson 57.5%Josh Turek 43.5%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Oct 9, 11:09 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 13 still in doubt · Oct 9, 11:09 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate9 of 10

  • pAlaska SenateMary Peltola 73.5%▲2.0Dan Sullivan 26.8%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Oct 9, 11:09 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 27.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • xGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 96.00%Collins 4.00%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Oct 9, 11:09 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.2pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 96.6%, Kalshi 95.4%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 3.55%, Kalshi 4.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • nMaine SenateTroy Jackson 58.0%▲0.5Susan Collins 42.0%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Oct 9, 11:09 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • rMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 68.5%▲4.0Rogers 32.5%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side gained about five points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Oct 9, 11:09 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 31.5%, Kalshi 33.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 72.5%▲0.5Osborn 28.0%

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Oct 9, 11:09 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 71.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • zNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 89.3%▲3.010.8%Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about three points in six days.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Oct 9, 11:09 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 89.5%, Kalshi 89.0%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 11.0%, Kalshi 10.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • wNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 96.35%▲0.7Whatley 3.73%

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Oct 9, 11:09 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 96.35%, Kalshi 96.35%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 3.60%, Kalshi 3.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • sOhio SenateSherrod Brown 61.0%▲0.9Jon Husted 39.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Oct 9, 11:09 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 60.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 39.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • oTexas SenateJames Talarico 62.5%▲1.8Ken Paxton 37.5%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Oct 9, 11:09 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 62.5%, Kalshi 62.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 37.5%, Kalshi 37.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors10 of 12

  • abAlaska governor20.50%▲3.278.6%WilsonBegich 0.88%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a clear lead after gaining about three points in six days.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Oct 9, 11:09 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 21.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.10%, Kalshi 0.65%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • adArizona governorKatie Hobbs 87.5%12.5%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Oct 9, 11:09 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 86.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ahFlorida governorByron Donalds 77.5%▲1.2David Jolly 23.0%

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Oct 9, 11:09 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 77.5%, Kalshi 77.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 22.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aaIowa governorRob Sand 88.5%▲1.712.5%Lahn

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Oct 9, 11:09 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 88.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • acMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 92.60%James 7.17%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Oct 9, 11:09 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.2pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 93.05%, Kalshi 92.15%; John James (R): Polymarket 6.55%, Kalshi 7.80%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • afNew York governorKathy Hochul 95.68%Blakeman 4.72%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Oct 9, 11:09 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.1pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 95.95%, Kalshi 95.40%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.20%, Kalshi 5.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.1pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • mOhio governorAmy Acton 69.5%▲4.5Vivek Ramaswamy 30.5%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Oct 9, 11:09 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 69.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 30.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • agPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 96.97%Garrity 2.72%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Oct 9, 11:09 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.9pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 97.35%, Kalshi 96.60%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.30%, Kalshi 3.15%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.9pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aeTexas governorGreg Abbott 75.8%▲0.8Gina Hinojosa 25.0%

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Oct 9, 11:09 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 75.2%, Kalshi 76.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 24.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • tWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 80.5%▲0.319.0%Tiffany

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Oct 9, 11:09 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Oct 9, 11:09 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Not news news3 stories

Ongoing9 earlier updates45 days

This story has run 10 times over 45 days, starting Aug 26.

  1. Measles kills two Pennsylvanians
  2. Pennsylvania reports 2 measles-associated deaths, its first in 35 years, as coroner disputes infant case
  3. CDC leaves two Pennsylvania measles deaths out of its national count
  4. Coroner rules measles killed a 6-week-old in Lancaster County as US cases hit 3,134, the most since 1991
  5. Unvaccinated 40-year-old Pennsylvania woman dies of measles complications, third death tied to outbreak
  6. UpdateCDC counts only NCHS-listed measles deaths, showing zero for 2026
  7. UpdatePennsylvania confirmed its fourth measles death this year, an 18-year-old, while the CDC's national count remains zero.
  8. UpdatePennsylvania reports 4 measles deaths this year; CDC's count is still 0
  9. Pennsylvania confirms 977 measles cases this year and reports five deaths; the CDC's national tally counts two
  10. UpdateUS measles cases reach 4,080 this year, the most since 1991, with Pennsylvania at 1,105 — this issue
STATELINEUpdate

US measles cases reach 4,080 this year, the most since 1991, with Pennsylvania at 1,105

Pennsylvania reports five measles deaths; the CDC recognizes two of them.

The CDC counted 4,080 US measles cases this year as of Thursday, Oct. 8, including 192 new cases in the past week. That is the highest yearly total since 1991, when the country recorded 9,643.

Pennsylvania is the center of the outbreak, with 1,105 of the 4,080 national cases. The state reports five measles deaths, but the CDC's count includes only two of them.

Catch upwhat happened before · 9 earlier issues

On Oct. 7, Kathy Hochul (Gov-D New York) declared a measles disaster emergency as the outbreak in neighboring Pennsylvania passed 1,000 cases.

8 earlier issues
Why Pennsylvania counts five deaths this year and the CDC twoPennsylvania counts a death when a patient with a positive lab test dies within 30 days of symptoms and no unrelated cause…3 details
  • Pennsylvania counts a death when a patient with a positive lab test dies within 30 days of symptoms and no unrelated cause explains it.
  • Since September 2026, the CDC counts only deaths its statistics center verifies as caused by measles on state death records.
  • Lancaster County's coroner said one infected newborn died of a lacerated spleen; Pennsylvania still counts that death.
AXIOSInflation and the Fed

Fed survey finds top 10% of earners' average income fell 14% from 2021 to 2024 while their median wealth rose 31% from 2022 to 2025

The typical family's income rose 7% over the same years, but its net worth rose only 2%, to $215,900, and its median bank-account balance fell 6%, to $8,200.

The Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances (a detailed survey of family money that the Fed runs every three years) shows income and wealth moving in opposite directions for top earners. After inflation, the top 10%'s average income fell from $757,000 to $652,000 between 2021 and 2024, a 14% drop. Over 2022 to 2025, the same group's median net worth climbed 31%. The income figures run 2021 to 2024 and the wealth figures 2022 to 2025, so the two windows are offset by a year.

Which families lost ground in the 2025 surveyFamilies headed by someone under 35: median net worth fell 23%, to $33,0003 details
  • Families headed by someone under 35: median net worth fell 23%, to $33,000
  • Family at the 25th wealth percentile: $27,900, down from $29,600 in 2022 but up from $15,700 in 2019
  • Families paying more than 40% of income toward debt: 8.6%, up from 6.5% in 2022 and last this high in 2013
THE ATLANTIC2026 midterms

FBI Director Kash Patel plans a trip to Russia three weeks before the midterms, The Atlantic reports, after FBI and Justice Department officials failed to stop it

Jamie Raskin (Rep-D Maryland) and Jim Himes (Rep-D Connecticut), the top Democrats on the House Judiciary and Intelligence committees, asked him on Friday, Oct. 9, to cancel.

Patel plans to visit Russia, reportedly starting next week, according to The Atlantic. Reports have said he would likely be hosted by the FSB (Russia's Federal Security Service, the KGB's main successor). The midterms are Tuesday, Nov. 3. Seventeen current and former officials and others told the magazine they were worried. The FBI has not confirmed the plans, and neither the FBI nor the White House commented. Patel is suing The Atlantic over its earlier reporting on him.

“In the interest of national security, we ask you to reconsider. Call off this trip.”Raskin and Himes letter

What next. The two Democrats asked for a closed-door briefing by Monday, Oct. 12, on his itinerary, meetings, traveling companions and precautions against Russian spying if he goes. No one has said whether that briefing will happen.

12 stories that didn't make the cutSeen by the desk, ranked, and not run. The number is where each stood in the day's order.

News

  • 46Pentagon offices run by official George Kollitides gave nearly $350 million in no-bid work to Alvarez & Marsal, whose sister firm he advisedProPublica found $350M in no-bid Pentagon work went to a firm tied to official George Kollitides; cut because the slow-burn investigation had no new official response yet.
  • 47FY2026 federal deficit nears $2 trillion, largest since COVIDThe FY2026 federal deficit neared $2 trillion, the largest since COVID; cut because it is an early think-tank estimate ahead of official Treasury figures.
  • 48Trump to push Defense Production Act to raise oil and fuel outputTrump plans to use the Defense Production Act to raise oil and fuel output; cut because the push is still a plan and the diesel sanctions story already covers fuel supply.
  • 49CFTC proposes defining swaps to include prediction-market event contractsThe CFTC proposed treating prediction-market event contracts as swaps, claiming regulatory turf; cut because it is a proposed rule with no immediate effect.
  • 52Anthropic says its AI agents took unintended actions on government websitesAnthropic disclosed that its AI agents took unintended actions on government websites; cut because the incidents appear limited and no regulator has acted.
  • 53DeSantis withdraws death warrant for William Lee ThompsonDeSantis withdrew the death warrant for William Lee Thompson; cut because it is a single state clemency-track case without a broader policy shift.
  • 54Kansas Reflector/MS NOW probe: Roger Marshall blurred taxpayer and campaign fundsA Kansas Reflector/MS NOW probe says Sen.

Election related

  • 45University of Michigan's preliminary October consumer sentiment index fell to 46.3, the second-lowest reading on recordMichigan consumer sentiment fell to 46.3, the second-lowest on record, a midterm warning sign; cut because a single preliminary index reading ranked below the day's lead stories.
  • 50D.C. election board tells National Guard to keep troops away from ballot drop boxesD.C.'s election board told the National Guard to keep troops away from ballot drop boxes; cut because it is a local directive with no reported confrontation.
  • 51Late postmarks could get mail ballots rejectedUSPS postmark changes could get late mail ballots rejected before the midterms; cut because it is a service explainer without a new policy action.
  • 55ProPublica: Paxton's travel security cost taxpayers millionsProPublica found Ken Paxton's travel security cost Texas taxpayers millions; cut because the Texas Senate race already appears via the Talarico story.
  • 56Trump pauses Iran strikes before midterms as Iran preserves missile capacityTrump paused Iran strikes before the midterms while Iran preserved its missile capacity; cut because the pause lacks official confirmation and rests on one report.

More on the Elections page