Political Guyentist

Monday · The daily brief

Oct 192026

6 leads33 briefs23 min

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Executive summary6 stories

News news4

  1. Trump defends waiving Russia sanctions; Wright calls the diesel deal a peace 'carrot,' Rubio says the diesel would have sold anywaySix Republican senators and five House Republicans have joined Democrats asking Trump to reverse the diesel deal.
  2. Obama calls the federal probe of Rep. Ilhan Omar's citizenship 'appalling'; border czar Homan says the government could strip her citizenship and deport herThe Justice Department has not revealed its evidence, and the first Trump administration reviewed similar allegations in 2019 and found too little for a full investigation.
  3. Ukrainian drone hits a St. Petersburg oil terminal; Zelensky holds 40-minute call with Witkoff and KushnerAxios called it his first call with senior U.S. officials since Trump's Oct. 9 deal lifting sanctions on Russian diesel; they discussed meeting in person within days.
  4. Bessent declines three times to say whether Ukraine is a U.S. ally; Zelensky says backing Putin would be a 'historic mistake'Zelensky said the U.S. briefly blocked intelligence sharing and slowed Starlink as a "message from American government"; Bessent called that "reckless."

Not news news2

  1. Homeland Security agents search Rep. Omar's home, the FBI posts a video on a Democratic Senate candidate and the Justice Department gives California 48 hours, weeks before the midtermsThe attorney general is also campaigning for Republicans, and a Guardian analysis says the moves break the department's custom of neutrality before an election.
  2. Meta says a Claude AI tool's heavy reading activity set off the automated shutdown of the No Kings Instagram account on Saturday, Oct. 17, and apologizesOrganizers say the page was down about 90 minutes and they stayed locked out of its controls for about four hours; Chris Murphy (Sen-D Connecticut) has called for an investigation.

News news4 stories

Ongoing29 earlier updates54 days

This story has run 30 times over 54 days, starting Aug 26.

  1. CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
  2. CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
  3. CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
  4. UpdateCIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen
  5. Russian drone hits ammunition depot near Kyiv, killing 38; four remain missing
  6. Russia's finance minister returned to the G20 in person for the first time since the Ukraine invasion
  7. Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin in Moscow Sept. 5, Zelensky in Kyiv Sept. 6, carrying a U.S. proposal to end the war
  8. UpdatePutin orders 72-hour halt to strikes on Kyiv while Witkoff and Kushner visit, after a three-hour Kremlin meeting
  9. UpdateWitkoff and Kushner hold first Kyiv talks of the war, agreeing on next steps but no terms; announcement promised in weeks
  10. UpdateWitkoff says Moscow-Kyiv trip produced 'substantive progress' on scheduling more talks, with no date set and no terms disclosed
  11. UpdateRussia resumed strikes on Kyiv after the truce, killing 7; Trump and Putin then talked for an hour
  12. UpdateTrump says Russia's president wants a Ukraine peace deal after their phone call
  13. House schedules vote next week on authorizing 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers
  14. UpdateVladimir Putin warned that sending European troops into Ukraine means war with Russia.
  15. Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy truce Kyiv calls conditional
  16. UpdateThe House voted 214-211 to advance 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil
  17. UpdateCongress sends Trump a bill letting him impose 100% tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil
  18. UpdateTrump signs the bill authorizing 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil
  19. Trump and Zelensky agree to New York talks, expected Sept. 22
  20. UpdateZelensky asks Trump for a mutual halt on energy and port strikes
  21. Zelensky (President, Ukraine) urges countries to limit trade with Russia to cut war funding
  22. UpdatePutin added a sale of Lukoil's foreign oil assets to US-Russia Ukraine talks; the buyers include Witkoff and Kushner business partners
  23. UpdateTreasury lifts U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel until April 7, 2027, after Trump says Russia will send 4.8 million tons
  24. UpdateRussian glide bombs kill 20 in Zaporizhzhia a day after the U.S. suspended Russian diesel sanctions; Putin tells Trump talks won't resume soon
  25. UpdateFour Republican senators join Democrats in demanding Trump reverse his Russian diesel deal, saying he skipped steps the law requires
  26. UpdateTrump defends letting Russian diesel into the U.S. as analysts say the 300,000-ton first shipment is too small to lower prices
  27. Update12 senators, six from each party, ask Trump to rescind his deal lifting U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel
  28. Trump waives the Russian energy tariffs and sanctions required by the Graham law he signed last month
  29. UpdateBoth parties condemn Trump's waiver of the Graham Act's Russia tariffs and sanctions; Rep. Don Bacon says he won't fund Trump's agenda
  30. UpdateTrump defends waiving Russia sanctions; Wright calls the diesel deal a peace 'carrot,' Rubio says the diesel would have sold anyway — this issue
FOX NEWSUpdateRussia diesel deal

Trump defends waiving Russia sanctions; Wright calls the diesel deal a peace 'carrot,' Rubio says the diesel would have sold anyway

Six Republican senators and five House Republicans have joined Democrats asking Trump to reverse the diesel deal.

Donald Trump signed an executive order late Friday, Oct. 16, waiving the Russia sanctions and tariffs in the Graham Act two days before they took effect. He signed that law, which sanctions Russia and Iran, on Sept. 18. His aides then gave conflicting reasons for the related deal that lets Russian diesel into the U.S.

The president. On Truth Social, Trump said he did not want to “drive, foolishly, Russia away from the bargaining table.”

The carrot. Energy Secretary Chris Wright called the diesel deal “a carrot to try to end a war,” not an economic lifeline for Russia. ([TS]the license itself asks for no ceasefire and no cut in attacks, per Treasury’s own text.)

The pause. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said “that diesel was going to be sold one way or the other.” He called the suspension a 60-day pause to study its effect on the U.S. and world economies.

The pushback. Mike Pence said the waiver “dishonors the legacy of the late Senator Lindsey Graham.” Darline Graham (Sen-R South Carolina) succeeded her brother. She said: “I would choose to keep the pressure on Russia… because I don’t trust Putin and don’t trust Russia.” Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev called the order “an important and truly historic moment.”

Still open. Rubio’s 60 days has no automatic end. The order keeps the waivers in force until Trump or his officials decide “further action is appropriate.”

Catch upwhat happened before · 29 earlier issues
  • Sept. 21 — Trump pressed Volodymyr Zelensky (President, Ukraine) to stop striking Russian refineries, citing higher U.S. diesel prices.
  • Sept. 23–24 — Zelensky proposed a mutual halt on energy and port strikes. He urged allies to curb trade with Russia.
  • Oct. 4 — Putin added a sale of Lukoil’s foreign oil assets to talks. Buyers include business partners of envoys Witkoff and Kushner.
  • Oct. 9 — Treasury lifted sanctions on Russian diesel until April 7, 2027, after Trump said Russia would send diesel to the U.S.; Putin told him talks would not resume soon.
  • Oct. 10 — Russian glide bombs killed 20 in Zaporizhzhia.
  • Oct. 13 — Analysts said the 300,000-ton first shipment was too small to cut prices. Twelve senators, six from each party, asked Trump to rescind the deal.
  • Oct. 16 — Bloomberg reported the Graham-law penalties were blocking Trump’s push to lower diesel prices before the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
28 earlier issues
BackgroundWhat it would take Congress to undo the diesel deal3 facts
  • A bill from Gregory Meeks (Rep-D New York), filed Oct. 16, would void Treasury’s Russia licenses and bar new ones; Don Bacon (Rep-R Nebraska) cosponsors.
  • Senate veto override: 67 votes, so 20 Republicans if every Democrat and independent joins — 14 more than the six who signed.
  • House veto override: 289 votes if all 433 members vote, so 75 Republicans — 70 more than the five who signed.
Chart · pipeline render▲ label over mark

U.S. average retail diesel price

U.S. average retail diesel price Monthly last weekly observation Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EMD_EPD2D_PTE_NUS_DPG), dollars per gallon $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $3.72 $6.18 June 2022 record $5.81 2022-06-27: June 2022 record $5.81 2021-11-29 2023-02-27 2024-05-27 2025-07-28 2026-10-12
Source: Trump defends Russia sanctions waiver as aides give clashing rationalesPOLI

Red take

Trump was right to waive the Graham Act's Russia penalties, because a sanction that cannot stop a sale only decides who pays for it. Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, says 'that diesel was going to be sold one way or the other,' and Trump had already warned of higher U.S. diesel prices. Snap the penalties back, and Americans carry that cost while Russia, in Trump's words, is driven 'foolishly' from the bargaining table.

Blue take

"Chris Wright, the energy secretary, sells the diesel deal as 'a carrot to try to end a war,' but Treasury's license asks Russia for no ceasefire and no cut in attacks. Putin told Trump the day it was issued that talks would not resume soon, and the next day Russian glide bombs killed 20 in Zaporizhzhia. Keep the Graham Act's Russia sanctions waived with no end date, and Moscow learns American pressure lifts without its giving up anything."

Ongoing5 earlier updates6 days

This story has run 6 times over 6 days, starting Oct 13.

  1. Federal agents search Rep. Ilhan Omar's home in a criminal immigration-fraud probe, 22 days before her election
  2. UpdateFederal prosecutor Jeanine Pirro opens a review of Ilhan Omar's financial disclosures a day after agents searched her home; Trump says he takes 'no position' on deporting her
  3. UpdateAgents seized Ilhan Omar's phone in the search of her home, and a Minnesota grand jury has subpoenaed her relatives
  4. UpdateDHS Secretary Mullin says the Omar case is headed to a grand jury; her lawyers want seized items back
  5. UpdateJustice Department denies agents broke a judge's limits when they searched Rep. Ilhan Omar's home
  6. UpdateObama calls the federal probe of Rep. Ilhan Omar's citizenship 'appalling'; border czar Homan says the government could strip her citizenship and deport her — this issue
NBC NEWSUpdate

Obama calls the federal probe of Rep. Ilhan Omar's citizenship 'appalling'; border czar Homan says the government could strip her citizenship and deport her

The Justice Department has not revealed its evidence, and the first Trump administration reviewed similar allegations in 2019 and found too little for a full investigation.

Barack Obama, in a long post on X on Sunday, Oct. 18, called the federal pursuit of Ilhan Omar (Rep-D Minnesota) an attempt to intimidate a critic of the president. Border czar Tom Homan said he has been told investigators have a "strong case," and that Omar could be denaturalized and deported if fraud is proven.

The question. Investigators are asking whether Omar was 18 when her father was naturalized in 2000. Records list her as 17. At 18 she would not have automatically become a citizen through him. A source told NBC that officials have cited conspiracy and false statements on immigration paperwork as possible charges. She has not been charged.

Obama. "The full weight of the federal government is being brought down on a law-abiding elected official because she has dared to criticize the president." He added that future presidents "in either party" could do the same.

Homan. "If you lie during the naturalization process, there is a process to denaturalize somebody… I know things, but that's the question for FBI."

The White House. Spokeswoman Lauren Bis: "Unlike Joe Biden, President Trump has not weaponized the Department of Justice against his political foes."

Still open. Officials have not said publicly what evidence shows she was 18 rather than the 17 her records list.

Catch upwhat happened before · 5 earlier issues
  • Oct. 12 — Federal agents searched Omar's Washington home and took her phone, in a criminal immigration-fraud probe tied to papers her late father filed, 22 days before her election.
  • Oct. 13 — U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro opened a review of Omar's financial disclosures; Trump said he takes "no position" on deporting her.
  • Oct. 14 — Reports said a Minnesota grand jury had subpoenaed her relatives and that her staff had earlier changed her listed birth year from 1981 to 1982.
  • Oct. 16 — DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin said the case is headed to a grand jury; Omar's lawyers asked for the seized items back.
4 earlier issues
BackgroundWhat a finding against Omar would and would not do2 facts
  • It would not by itself remove her from the House; the House judges its own members' qualifications, including seven years of citizenship.
  • The House can unseat a member who lacks a qualification by simple majority; expelling a member for misconduct takes two-thirds.

Red take

A Minnesota grand jury should decide whether Ilhan Omar, the Minnesota Democrat in Congress, was 18 rather than 17 when her father became a citizen in 2000, the age at which she would not automatically have become a citizen through him. Her own staff moved her listed birth year from 1981 to 1982. Drop the case because she criticizes the president, and citizenship rules bend for anyone famous enough to cry persecution.

Blue take

Agents searched the Washington home of Ilhan Omar, a Minnesota Democrat in Congress, 22 days before her election, over allegations the first Trump administration reviewed in 2019 and found too thin to investigate fully. The evidence is sealed, yet Tom Homan, Trump's border czar, already talks of deporting her though she has not been charged. Let it stand, and, as former President Barack Obama warned, presidents of either party can aim the same machinery at their critics.

Ongoing5 earlier updates8 days

This story has run 6 times over 8 days, starting Oct 11.

  1. UpdateTrump says Ukraine needs "a new president" and tells Zelensky to stop striking Russian oil refineries
  2. UpdateTrump says Russia and Ukraine agreed to an immediate energy ceasefire; Moscow has not confirmed it
  3. UpdateUkraine strikes a Russian refinery, ending the three-day energy-strike pause Trump demanded
  4. UpdateEU leaders say they 'regret' Trump's lifting of Russian diesel sanctions; Trump calls Zelensky 'not a good guy'
  5. UpdateZelensky says Ukraine will negotiate 'anywhere' and seeks a U.S.–Russia–Ukraine meeting at the G20
  6. UpdateUkrainian drone hits a St. Petersburg oil terminal; Zelensky holds 40-minute call with Witkoff and Kushner — this issue
THE WASHINGTON POSTUpdateFuel prices

Ukrainian drone hits a St. Petersburg oil terminal; Zelensky holds 40-minute call with Witkoff and Kushner

Axios called it his first call with senior U.S. officials since Trump's Oct. 9 deal lifting sanctions on Russian diesel; they discussed meeting in person within days.

A Ukrainian drone struck the Petersburg Oil Terminal in St. Petersburg, Vladimir Putin's hometown, after the refinery-only energy ceasefire Trump announced Oct. 11 broke down. Trump then went after Volodymyr Zelensky (President, Ukraine) in public. Zelensky's call with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner came Sunday, Oct. 18.

The call. Zelensky said they reviewed the teams' Oct. 9 Miami talks and next diplomatic steps, per RBC-Ukraine.

Still open. Axios describes the in-person meeting only as a possibility; no date, place or agenda has been announced.

Catch upwhat happened before · 5 earlier issues
  • Oct. 9 — Trump struck his Russian diesel deal after, a U.S. official told Axios, Zelensky ignored six requests to stop hitting Russian refineries.
  • Oct. 10 — Trump said Ukraine needs "a new president."
  • Oct. 11 — Trump announced an immediate energy ceasefire covering only refineries; Moscow did not confirm it, and Kyiv said it got no warning.
  • Oct. 15 — Ukraine hit a Russian refinery after a three-day pause; Zelensky said Russia never stopped and accused Washington of cutting intelligence and throttling Starlink. Trump called Zelensky "not a good guy."
  • Oct. 16 — EU leaders said they "regret" Trump lifting Russian diesel sanctions.
4 earlier issues
What satellite images show the drones destroyedPetersburg Oil Terminal: three tanks burning, one destroyed2 details
  • Petersburg Oil Terminal: three tanks burning, one destroyed
  • Ruchyi fuel depot, a separate site: a second tank destroyed
Ongoing4 earlier updates4 days

This story has run 5 times over 4 days, starting Oct 15.

  1. UpdateUkraine's military Starshield satellite terminals stop working above 160 km/h; Musk says the U.S. military and Trump set the limit
  2. UpdateTwo U.S. officials and a Western official say the order to cap Ukraine's Starshield terminals came from the White House
  3. UpdateTrump denies ordering speed caps on Ukraine's Starshield terminals; nine senators ask Pentagon watchdog who did
  4. UpdateZelensky says Ukrainian road tests show Starlink and Starshield cut out above 161 km/h only inside Ukraine
  5. UpdateBessent declines three times to say whether Ukraine is a U.S. ally; Zelensky says backing Putin would be a 'historic mistake' — this issue
THE HILLUpdateRussia-Ukraine war

Bessent declines three times to say whether Ukraine is a U.S. ally; Zelensky says backing Putin would be a 'historic mistake'

Zelensky said the U.S. briefly blocked intelligence sharing and slowed Starlink as a "message from American government"; Bessent called that "reckless."

Ukraine's president and the U.S. Treasury secretary each made their case on NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday, Oct. 18.

Siding with Putin. Volodymyr Zelensky (President, Ukraine) said: "If United States will support Putin, I mean, it's unbelievable, it's tragedy, it's historic mistake." He said he still hopes Trump will "change his decisions."

The ally question. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Zelensky "should be careful." Pressed a third time on whether Ukraine is an ally, he said: "I'm not the secretary of state. I'm not the president." He said European NATO members "have plenty of Patriots" and asked why they aren't sending them.

Iran. On Truth Social, Trump said Russia is doing "very little, if anything" to help Iran. Russia announced the same day that Sergei Lavrov (Foreign Minister, Russia) will visit Tehran this week.

Catch upwhat happened before · 4 earlier issues

On Friday, Oct. 16, Trump waived the Graham law's Russian energy tariffs and sanctions; the lead story above carries the timeline.

3 earlier issues

Related reading

RELATEDSenators ask the Pentagon inspector general to investigate Starlink disruptions in Ukraine

Their letter says Space Force-administered contracts had previously given Ukraine unrestricted terminal speeds, and asks who changed that.

SEMI-RELATEDU.S. officials warned Ukraine and Europe that intelligence sharing and weapons sales could stop unless Ukraine quit hitting Russian energy

Read more about: U.S. officials warned Ukraine and Europe that intelligence sharing and weapons sales could stop unless Ukraine quit hitting Russian energy

The purchases run through NATO's Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List; NATO said it had seen no change to the program that weekend.

Quick bites11

Courts2 bites

  1. Trump says D.C.'s East Potomac golf course closes Nov. 15 for 15 months, despite court halt

    PBS NEWSHOURUpdate

    Judge Ana Reyes has barred further tree cutting at the course through Oct. 26 while a lawsuit proceeds. After DOJ told her Sunday night, Oct. 18, that the plans are still "preliminary," she ordered two government lawyers to appear in person at an evidentiary hearing on Monday, Oct. 19.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

    On Friday evening, Oct. 9, Interior told the court tree cutting would begin the next morning (CNN). Crews cut at least 430 trees on Saturday, Oct. 10, and on Tuesday, Oct. 13, Reyes barred further cutting through Oct. 26 (CBS News).

    The plan and the fightGolf architect Tom Fazio is designing the rebuild with the Interior Department, and Trump wants the course to host majors.3 details
    • Golf architect Tom Fazio is designing the rebuild with the Interior Department, and Trump wants the course to host majors.
    • Associate AG Stanley Woodward argued that redesigning a golf course is no more an agency action than deciding to "mow the lawn."
    • Trump called the existing course "old, broken, dilapidated, and of no further use," citing "disease infested trees" and a "collapsing and hazardous seawall."
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times over 6 days, starting Oct 13.

    1. Judge extends halt on tree removal after Park Service cut about 430 trees at D.C. golf course
    2. UpdateTrump says D.C.'s East Potomac golf course closes Nov. 15 for 15 months, despite court halt — this issue

  2. California woman, 34, indicted for allegedly spying for China on Taiwan president's son near Seattle

    NBC NEWS

    Prosecutors say Wanying Zhang of Irvine watched the son outside his Seattle-area home from June to September 2025 for a Chinese official who was her former classmate.

    • Charges: conspiracy and acting as an unregistered agent of China, filed Oct. 9 in the Central District of California; she could face up to 15 years in prison (NBC News)
    • Held in pretrial detention as a flight risk; post-indictment arraignment Friday, Oct. 23 (NBC News)
    • Her lawyer, Craig Harbaugh, calls her an upstanding resident and rejects the government's "sleeper agent" theory
The confrontation with Iran2 bites

  1. Trump endorses Netanyahu, saying the US will hit Iran itself if Israelis pick anyone else

    AXIOSUpdateIran war

    In a Truth Social post on Sunday, Oct. 18, Trump gave Benjamin Netanyahu (Prime Minister, Israel) his "Complete and Total Endorsement" before Israel's Oct. 27 election, writing that otherwise "America will have to do this work ourselves" against Iran.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

    CBS News, Axios and the Financial Times report Trump had withheld the endorsement for months as the two leaders' strategies on Iran and Gaza diverged. On Oct. 13, Axios reported, citing four sources, that Netanyahu had discussed resuming major combat operations against Iran with Trump on several calls, including a possible joint strike; the White House called the report false.

    Where the race standsA government needs 61 of 120 Knesset seats, and most polls show Netanyahu's coalition short of that.3 details
    • A government needs 61 of 120 Knesset seats, and most polls show Netanyahu's coalition short of that.
    • Fox News puts current Likud forecasts at 18–22 seats.
    • Rival Gadi Eisenkot: "the elections are a domestic Israeli issue. The only ones who will decide are the citizens of Israel."
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times over 5 days, starting Oct 14.

    1. Netanyahu pressed Trump on several calls for a new joint strike on Iran, Axios reports
    2. UpdateTrump endorses Netanyahu, saying the US will hit Iran itself if Israelis pick anyone else — this issue

  2. Vance tells widower of soldier killed by Iranian drone that troop placement was 'a huge mistake'

    WASHINGTON POSTIran war

    JD Vance told the widower of a soldier killed by an Iranian drone that the troop placement was "a huge mistake" and that he hadn't heard of the case. He later said the US has "in some ways" decisively won the Iran war.

    Also from the town hallAn Iranian drone strike in Kuwait killed 6 US soldiers on March 1, the day after the war began, including Master Sgt.3 details
    • An Iranian drone strike in Kuwait killed 6 US soldiers on March 1, the day after the war began, including Master Sgt. Nicole Amor (PBS NewsHour).
    • Vance: "You live in a bit of a bubble and sometimes information doesn't filter up."
    • Vance said there is "of course" a chance he does not run for president in 2028.
Also tonight2 bites

  1. DHS says Ukrainian and Sudanese TPS holders keep protection past the Monday, Oct. 19 expiration until final decisions

    CBS NEWSVisa crackdown

    Temporary Protected Status (TPS) lets people from countries in crisis stay in the U.S. and work, shielded from deportation. DHS said Ukrainian and Sudanese holders keep it past the expiration, with final decisions coming 'at the appropriate time' and no date set. The reprieve covers more than 100,000 Ukrainians and about 1,800 Sudanese enrolled as of March 2025.

    The numbersUkrainians enrolled in TPS on March 31, 2025: 101,150 (USCIS, via the Congressional Research Service; CBS News says more than…3 details
    • Ukrainians enrolled in TPS on March 31, 2025: 101,150 (USCIS, via the Congressional Research Service; CBS News says more than 100,000)
    • Sudanese enrolled on the same date: 1,790 (USCIS, via the Congressional Research Service)
    • TPS revoked by the Trump administration over the past year and a half: more than 1 million people from over a dozen countries (CBS News)

  2. Republicans Turner and Cramer call for a congressional probe of Ukraine's Starlink outage

    CBS NEWSRussia-Ukraine war

    On CBS's 'Face the Nation' on Sunday, Oct. 18, Mike Turner (Rep-R Ohio) and Kevin Cramer (Sen-R North Dakota) called for Congress to investigate a slowdown in Ukraine's Starlink service. Turner disputed Secretary of State Marco Rubio's account that no one ordered it and that service is back. 'Lives are at risk,' he warned. Cramer backed a probe but named a technical glitch as one possible cause.

    Where the accounts splitRubio: no one ordered the slowdown, it 'sort of happened,' and service has been restored.3 details
    • Rubio: no one ordered the slowdown, it 'sort of happened,' and service has been restored.
    • Turner: service is still not restored in some areas, The Hill reported. That account has not been independently confirmed.
    • Cramer: supports an investigation, and offers a technical glitch as one possibility.
Elections5 bites

  1. Post-ABC and NBC polls put Trump approval at 33% and 34%; Democrats lead congressional ballot by 8–10

    AXIOSUpdateTrump's approval

    Post-ABC-Ipsos puts Trump's approval at 33% and NBC at 34%. Among registered voters, Democrats lead the congressional ballot by 8 points in the Post poll (50–42) and 10 in NBC's (55–45). The Post-ABC-Ipsos 33% is a record low for that poll, under 37% in July and 38% after the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack. NBC's 34% is a second-term low, against 39% in its Jan. 27–Feb. 6 poll. Margins of error are 2 points (Post) and 2.6 (NBC).

    A Fox News poll taken Oct. 9–12 put Trump's approval at 36%, down from 44% in January, with Democrats ahead 54–45 on the congressional ballot.

    Where the drop shows upIndependents: 21% approve of Trump (NBC).3 details
    • Independents: 21% approve of Trump (NBC).
    • Cost of living: 21% approve of his handling (Post).
    • 37% of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents want party leaders to move away from Trump, an all-time high (Post).

  2. CBS poll finds Texas Senate race between Talarico and Paxton essentially tied

    CBS NEWSTexas Senate race

    A CBS News/YouGov poll of Texas voters taken Oct. 8-16 has Democrat James Talarico (St Rep-D Texas) at 51% and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton at 49% among likely voters, inside the poll's ±3.5-point margin of error (±3.4 for its 1,492 registered voters). Cost of living is the top issue, named by 56% of likely voters, and those voters back Talarico 65%-35%, per CBS poll graphics reported by the Texas Gazette. CBS says Talarico also leads on perceived character, while Paxton benefits from the state's Republican lean and from stronger Texas support for the Trump administration's deportation program than in CBS's latest national poll; CBS's write-up gives no figure for that gap.

    Ongoing2

    This story has run 3 times over 9 days, starting Oct 10.

    1. Talarico returns to Texas Senate trail after flu absence; Trump says Paxton should debate him
    2. Ohio mental-health center denies treating James Talarico; NYT images place him at home in Austin
    3. CBS poll finds Texas Senate race between Talarico and Paxton essentially tied — this issue

  3. Trump campaigns in Kansas on Monday, Oct. 19, as Roger Marshall (Sen-R Kansas) trails Democrat Adam Hamilton by under a point in one poll

    CBS NEWS

    Trump holds a rally in Park City, outside Wichita, on Monday, Oct. 19, in a race CBS News calls a toss-up. An InsiderAdvantage poll of 1,200 likely voters on Oct. 9–10 had Hamilton at 47.5%, Marshall at 46.7% and Libertarian David Graham at 3.4%, within its ±2.83-point margin of error. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, a 94-year Republican streak.

    Ongoing3

    This story has run 4 times over 19 days, starting Sep 30.

    1. Republicans move Senate money to defend Texas and send Trump to Ohio as Georgia and North Carolina slip
    2. Cook moves Kansas Senate race to toss-up and shifts North Carolina and New Hampshire toward Democrats
    3. UpdateDemocrats' Senate Majority PAC starts $5 million Kansas ad buy against Sen. Roger Marshall
    4. Trump campaigns in Kansas on Monday, Oct. 19, as Roger Marshall (Sen-R Kansas) trails Democrat Adam Hamilton by under a point in one poll — this issue

  4. Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed disavowed the Muslim Brotherhood; CNN's Dana Bash corrected Republican Mike Rogers for saying he didn't

    CNNMichigan Senate race

    Asked at a Saturday, Oct. 17 town hall whether he disavows the Muslim Brotherhood (an Islamist movement whose Egyptian and Jordanian branches the U.S. Treasury designated terrorist groups in January), El-Sayed answered "Sure. Yeah, absolutely," then asked why he was being asked. Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman, has accused El-Sayed of lying about his family's ties, citing 2012-13 posts by El-Sayed's half-sister, Eman Abdelhadi, including "My family has long been MB." El-Sayed says he was not raised by his mother and never discussed it with her; Fox News notes the allegations about relatives have not established that he belonged. On CNN's State of the Union on Sunday, Oct. 18, Rogers said El-Sayed didn't disavow the group, and Bash corrected him. Asked about Trump calling El-Sayed a "jihadist," Rogers said, "The president is going to do what he's going to do."

    Who said whatBash to Rogers: "Congressman, I just want to be factual."3 details
    • Bash to Rogers: "Congressman, I just want to be factual."
    • CBS's Jan Crawford deleted a post calling the answer a "spectacular self own," saying it violated CBS News standards.
    • El-Sayed on MS NOW, invoking JFK: "it's a crazy thing to assume that somehow I'd have dual loyalties."

  5. Democratic Senate candidate Troy Jackson says he doesn't regret telling Susan Collins (Sen-R Maine) to 'shut up'

    ABC NEWSUpdateMaine Senate race

    Jackson said on CNN's State of the Union on Sunday, Oct. 18 that he does not regret telling Collins to "shut up." He refused to apologize, saying "what I'm not going to be is talked down to by Sen. Collins." The protester Collins linked to him turned out to be Henry Elgie, 19, a Bowdoin College student and Sunrise Movement volunteer. Elgie told the New York Times he had "zero coordination" with the campaign.

    On Thursday, Oct. 15, Collins and Jackson met at the fourth and final Maine Senate debate, in front of a live studio audience in Bangor. Asked when she had stood up to Trump, Collins cited her failed push to defeat Pete Hegseth's confirmation. Later, after a protester shouted about AI data centers, she called him "obviously one of Troy's supporters." Jackson told her, "Oh, shut up. I don't even know that kid."

    Who the protester wasHenry Elgie, 19, is a Bowdoin College student.3 details
    • Henry Elgie, 19, is a Bowdoin College student.
    • The Sunrise Movement claimed Elgie as one of its volunteers.
    • Elgie said he had "zero coordination" with Jackson's campaign.

Elections22 races

The midterms · 15 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Oct 19, 3:38 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 92%, Kalshi 90%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 64%, Kalshi 63%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 90.15–91.50%
92%90%chance Democrats take it · 1.4pp apart · no clear move — one venue moved, the other did not
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 92% and Kalshi 90%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 62.5–63.5%
64%63%chance Democrats take it · 1.0pp apart · no clear move — one venue moved, the other did not
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 64% and Kalshi 63%.

3 closest races

  • tGeorgia governorBottoms vs. JacksonBottoms52.0%Jackson51.5%books split

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the only race here where the two venues do not agree on who is ahead.

    The books name different leaders

    Georgia governor

    Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.

    Oct 19, 3:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp

    Georgia governor. Lead in percentage points, positive to Keisha Lance Bottoms. Polymarket: Bottoms ahead by 3.5 points. Kalshi: Jackson ahead by 2 points. Every day is in the table below.

    Bottoms aheadJackson ahead10%tied10%7d agotodayBottoms +3.5%PolymarketJackson +2%Kalshi

    today

    • Bottoms+3.5%Polymarket
    • Jackson+2%Kalshi
    • Bottoms52.0%Polymarket
    • Bottoms49.5%Kalshi
    • Jackson48.5%Polymarket
    • Jackson51.5%Kalshi

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • uNevada governorAaron Ford 57.0%▲3.9Joe Lombardo 43.0%

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Aaron Ford (D) faces Joe Lombardo (R).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Oct 19, 3:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 55.5%; Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • pIowa SenateAshley Hinson 58.0%▲1.1Josh Turek 43.0%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Oct 19, 3:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 42.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 12 still in doubt · Oct 19, 3:38 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate9 of 10

  • oAlaska SenateMary Peltola 72.5%▲0.5Sullivan 27.5%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Oct 19, 3:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 71.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 26%, Kalshi 29%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • wGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 95.93%Collins 4.20%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Oct 19, 3:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.7pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 96.20%, Kalshi 95.65%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 3.85%, Kalshi 4.55%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.7pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • mMaine SenateTroy Jackson 62.0%▲4.0Susan Collins 37.8%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Oct 19, 3:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 62.5%, Kalshi 61.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 37.0%, Kalshi 38.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • qMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 68.8%▲0.7Mike Rogers 31.0%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Oct 19, 3:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 68.0%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • xNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 72.5%▲0.8Osborn 28.0%

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Oct 19, 3:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 71.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 89.0%▲0.211.0%Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Oct 19, 3:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 89.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 11.5%, Kalshi 10.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • vNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 95.95%▲0.4Whatley 3.85%

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Oct 19, 3:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.4pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 96.15%, Kalshi 95.75%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 3.65%, Kalshi 4.05%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • rOhio SenateSherrod Brown 64.5%▲4.1Jon Husted 36.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Oct 19, 3:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 63.5%, Kalshi 65.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 35.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • nTexas SenateJames Talarico 61.5%▲1.7Ken Paxton 38.5%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

    The Democratic side holds a clear lead after the Republican side gained about three points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Oct 19, 3:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 61.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 38.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors10 of 12

  • aaAlaska governor20.50%▲0.279.1%WilsonBegich 0.38%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Oct 19, 3:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 21.5%, Kalshi 19.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 0.05%, Kalshi 0.70%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • acArizona governorKatie Hobbs 91.7%▲4.48.3%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about four points in six days.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Oct 19, 3:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.6pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 92.5%, Kalshi 90.9%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 7.5%, Kalshi 9.1%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • agFlorida governorByron Donalds 80.0%▲1.7Jolly 19.5%

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Oct 19, 3:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • zIowa governorRob Sand 87.0%13.0%Lahn

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Oct 19, 3:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 87.5%, Kalshi 86.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 13.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • abMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 93.05%James 6.95%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Oct 19, 3:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.6pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 93.5%, Kalshi 92.6%; John James (R): Polymarket 6.15%, Kalshi 7.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aeNew York governorKathy Hochul 94.28%Blakeman 5.78%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Oct 19, 3:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.4pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.95%, Kalshi 93.60%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 5.05%, Kalshi 6.50%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • lOhio governorAmy Acton 71.5%▲3.1Vivek Ramaswamy 28.5%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Oct 19, 3:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 70.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 29.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • afPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 96.57%Garrity 3.40%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Oct 19, 3:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.9pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.80%, Kalshi 96.35%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.95%, Kalshi 3.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.9pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • adTexas governorGreg Abbott 75.88%▲3.924.50%Hinojosa

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead after the Democratic side gained about four points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Oct 19, 3:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 75.25%, Kalshi 76.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 24.5%, Kalshi 24.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • sWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 80.0%▲0.320.0%Tiffany

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Oct 19, 3:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 20.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Oct 19, 3:38 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Not news news2 stories

THE GUARDIAN

Homeland Security agents search Rep. Omar's home, the FBI posts a video on a Democratic Senate candidate and the Justice Department gives California 48 hours, weeks before the midterms

The attorney general is also campaigning for Republicans, and a Guardian analysis says the moves break the department's custom of neutrality before an election.

A Guardian analysis published Sunday, Oct. 18, lists federal law-enforcement moves in the final weeks before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. The analysis argues that together, they break the Justice Department's long practice of staying neutral near an election.

The search. Federal agents searched the home of Ilhan Omar (Rep-D Minnesota) on Oct. 12. NPR reported that the agents were from Homeland Security Investigations, part of the Department of Homeland Security, and acted under a warrant a judge approved. The search is part of a federal probe of Omar's citizenship, covered in a separate story.

The video. The FBI, part of the Justice Department, published a video criticizing Abdul El-Sayed, a Democratic Senate candidate in Michigan, and other Democrats. Attacks on El-Sayed are covered in a separate story.

The ultimatum. The Justice Department gave California election officials 48 hours to check the citizenship of 20,000 people. If they did not, it would sue. The analysis does not say how the department chose those 20,000 names.

A department official told the Guardian no rule bars acting close to an election. ([TS]True on the calendar. But DOJ's own manual bars timing any step to help or hurt a candidate.)

“This administration pushed those experts out of the department, and employees seeking guidance are now directed to political appointees loyal to the president.”Stacey Young, former Justice Department attorney

What next.

What polls did around the 2016 Comey letter (on Oct. 28, 2016, FBI Director James Comey told Congress the bureau was reviewing new emails tied to Hillary Clinton):

  • Monmouth national poll, Oct. 18, 2016 (before the letter): Clinton 46%, Trump 39%
  • Monmouth, Oct. 28: Clinton 45%, Trump 41%
  • Monmouth, Nov. 2: Clinton 45%, Trump 43%
  • A peer-reviewed study controlling for other events estimated a 0.121-point drop in Clinton's two-party share. That is too small to tell apart from zero.
THE GUARDIANGovernment funding

Meta says a Claude AI tool's heavy reading activity set off the automated shutdown of the No Kings Instagram account on Saturday, Oct. 17, and apologizes

Organizers say the page was down about 90 minutes and they stayed locked out of its controls for about four hours; Chris Murphy (Sen-D Connecticut) has called for an investigation.

Meta said on Sunday, Oct. 18 that its security system wrongly took the No Kings Instagram account offline on Saturday, Oct. 17 after a Claude AI tool (Anthropic's chatbot) read the account's profiles, posts and hashtags at about four times normal volume, per Bloomberg. The anti-Trump coalition was holding nearly 3,000 early-voting events (casting ballots before Election Day) that day.

Meta's account. Spokesman Andy Stone first blamed very frequent posting and wrote on Saturday, Oct. 17 that the action "was clearly taken in error… we sincerely apologize." On Sunday, Oct. 18 he said the bursts "resembled automated bot traffic." An automated re-review restored the account about an hour later. Meta has not said which tool it was or who ran it.

The timeline. No Kings says the page was unavailable about 90 minutes and organizers could not reach its backend for about four hours, until 5:33 p.m. Eastern. The Guardian reported "several hours." Organizers said members "posted only a handful of times."

Still open. Murphy has called for an investigation; Bernie Sanders (Sen-I Vermont) blamed "billionaire ownership of the media." No Kings had not answered Bloomberg on the Claude explanation. It plans a national organizing call on Wednesday, Oct. 21.

15 stories that didn't make the cutSeen by the desk, ranked, and not run. The number is where each stood in the day's order.

News

  • 40Bessent declines three times to say whether Ukraine is a U.S. ally; Zelensky says backing Putin would be a 'historic mistake'Zelensky warned on Meet the Press that siding with Putin would be a 'historic mistake'; it was cut because the published Ukraine items already carry the day's Kyiv-Washington thread.
  • 41Energy Secretary Wright is pressed on high gas prices amid the Iran warEnergy Secretary Wright was pressed on high gas prices during the Iran war; it was cut because the published sanctions story already carries Wright and energy.
  • 42Trump defers federal diesel taxes for farmers as states warn driversTrump deferred federal diesel taxes for farmers while states warned drivers; it was cut for space but has concrete policy effects an editor may want.
  • 43Putin floats a summit with Trump and Xi on a Ukraine dealPutin floated a summit with Trump and Xi to decide Ukraine's fate; it was cut because it is a trial balloon with no commitment from Washington or Beijing.
  • 44New federal rule limits compensation for delayed flightsA new federal rule limits compensation for delayed flights; it was cut for space, though this is the kind of regulatory story readers rarely see covered.
  • 45Experts call for a clearer federal message on measlesExperts called for a clearer federal message on measles as outbreaks continue; it was cut because it is commentary with no new federal action.
  • 46US ambassador threatens European firms over EU Starlink spectrum limitsA US ambassador threatened European firms over EU limits on Starlink spectrum; it was cut for space, though it ties into the published Starlink story.
  • 47Majority of Americans say the economy is on the wrong trackA majority of Americans say the economy is on the wrong track; it was cut because the published Post-ABC and NBC polls already carry the day's public-opinion news.
  • 51East Cleveland police seize the truck of a mayoral opponent's campaignerEast Cleveland police seized the truck of a man who campaigned for the mayor's opponent; it was cut as local, though it raises civil-liberties concerns.
  • 52Rep. Ritchie Torres's office receives a suspicious substance in the mailRep.
  • 53FT: Trump's bid to make America cheap again has failedThe FT argues Trump's push to make America cheap again has failed; it was cut because it is opinion analysis rather than news.
  • 54Evidence of an egg cartel after allPolitico reports evidence of an egg-price cartel; it was cut as a magazine feature, though the antitrust angle could be promoted.

Election related

  • 48US officials condemn West Bank settler attacks as Netanyahu casts doubtUS officials condemned West Bank settler attacks while Netanyahu cast doubt on them; it was cut for space next to the published Netanyahu endorsement story.
  • 49Trump staffers race to hire lawyers in case Democrats winTrump staffers are racing to hire lawyers in case Democrats win Congress; it was cut for space but is a strong midterm-stakes story.
  • 50NC A&T students protest the lack of on-campus early voting sitesNC A&T students protested the lack of on-campus early voting sites; it was cut as a local story, though it bears on voting access before the midterms.

More on the Elections page