Political Guyentist
Political Guyentist

Wednesday

1usUpdateIran war

U.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1

Trump said a bigger attack was "waiting in the wings" and that afterward "there will be very little left" of Iran's government; Iran's armed forces vowed to "impose a heavy cost on the American enemy."

- Jul. 23 — Trump threatened to bomb Iranian bridges and power plants for every ship hit in the Strait of Hormuz. - Jul. 28 — Iran fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. base in Jordan; all were intercepted. - Aug. 4-5 — Tehran denied Trump's claim that new talks would begin, and a cargo ship was struck in the strait. - Aug. 10 — Iran said it would keep Hormuz closed until Washington unfroze its assets, lifted the blockade and restored the June memorandum. - Aug. 17 — A projectile killed a crew member aboard a ship leaving Hormuz. - Aug. 18 — With a 60-day talks window expiring, Trump threatened to bomb Oman, the ally brokering the reopening deal. - Aug. 20 — Trump declared an "economic D-Day" on Iran and threatened third countries, as only 10 to 12 ships a day crossed the strait, 85% below normal. - Aug. 29 — After nearly a month without large strikes, the administration called its military goals complete and shifted to an open-ended sanctions campaign. - Aug. 31 — U.S. forces destroyed two rocket launchers on Larak Island loaded to mine the strait, killing two; Iran answered with eight missiles at Jordan, all intercepted, and Brent crude passed $90.

ContextCongress has never authorized this seven-month war. The White House rests it on Article II, the president's own war powers under the Constitution, and on Article 51 of the U.N. Charter, which covers self-defense. An Iran-specific measure, H.J.Res.176, was introduced in 2026 and never passed. The War Powers Resolution, a 1973 law that requires the president to tell Congress within 48 hours once U.S. forces enter combat, sets a Thursday, Sept. 3 deadline for notice on this strike. Notifying is not authorizing. Whether the White House filed the same notice for the June 2025, February–April 2026 and July 2026 rounds is not established here. Shipping damage is documented: a projectile killed a crew member aboard a ship leaving Hormuz on Monday, Aug. 17.

NBC NEWS8 sources

2usIran war

U.S. crude passes $90 a barrel, up 12% in a week, as U.S.-Iran war intensifies

European natural-gas futures closed at their highest level since January 2023, while U.S. stocks fell and Treasury bond yields rose.

What the Hormuz disruption has done to flows, insurance and freight: Ship-tracking estimates put oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz at 2 million to 6 million barrels a day, against about 15 million before the war — a 60% to 87% shortfall. War-risk insurance on ships entering the Gulf ran 7.5% to 10% of a vessel's hull value on July 22, up from 1% to 3% only weeks earlier, per broker Marsh. Tanker freight on the Argus index reached $11.09 a barrel by April 8, up 54.6% from $7.17 before the war, and rate reports on Sept. 1 described new records.

ContextEIA data put WTI crude at $83.90 a barrel on Aug. 25, 2026. By Sept. 1, a price above $90 meant an increase of more than $6.10 a barrel, or 7.3%, from that six-day-old baseline. The $83.90 print is the series' last observation: a 12% weekly rise from that level would put the price near $94, and no EIA observation for Sept. 1 exists yet. WTI's EIA spot price peaked at $93.08 on July 23, 2026 during this war and fell to $76.78 on Aug. 5, so $90 is a return toward the war's high rather than a new one.

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL5 sources

3usUpdate2026 midterms

House passes the Senate's temporary funding bill 370-48, keeping agencies at current levels through December 11 and sending it to Trump

The same bill pushes back a ban on most intoxicating hemp products by about a month and bars the White House budget office from finalizing a rule that would put political appointees over individual grant awards.

The Senate passed a temporary funding bill 90-6 on Aug. 8, keeping agencies at current levels and moving the next deadline to Dec. 11. House leaders then scheduled a one-day vote for Sept. 1, aiming to push the shutdown cliff five weeks past the Nov. 3 midterms.

ContextThat leaves Congress another funding deadline on Dec. 11, 38 days after the Nov. 3 election and inside the lame-duck session, when members who have just lost their seats still get a vote on it. It also gives the intoxicating-hemp industry about one additional month before the ban takes effect. The bill temporarily blocks a White House rule that would give political appointees greater control over federal grant approvals.

POLITICO5 sources

4us

Ten-year Treasury yield hit 4.78% on Tuesday, Sept. 1, its highest since January 2025

The 30-year yield sat near 5.25%; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the rise "a growth story" and said, "I don't think we are in any kind of a dire situation."

What a yield near 4.8% costs buyers and the Treasury: Freddie Mac's average 30-year mortgage rate — a weekly survey of what lenders are charging — was 6.66% on Aug. 27, up from 6.43% on July 2. On the $431,400 median existing-home price with 20% down, that is about $52 more a month, or $628 a year. Borrowing is still cheaper than the last time the 10-year sat at this level: Freddie Mac averaged 7.04% the week of Jan. 16, 2025. Treasury's next 10-year and 30-year auctions — the scheduled sales where the government borrows new money from investors — are Sept. 9 and Sept. 10.

ContextFederal debt stands at $37.6 trillion — 122.40% of GDP and $110,069 per person in 2025 (Treasury Fiscal Data, BEA, Census via FRED). Old bonds get replaced at whatever rate the market charges that day. So a 10-year near 4.8% locks in a higher interest bill for years. Bessent had faulted the prior Treasury for managing the bond market for effect, then expanded debt buybacks himself, in which Treasury purchases back its own older bonds. Bloomberg reported Tuesday (Sept. 1) that the program's gains had been erased. Federal interest payments were running at a $1,247 billion annual rate in the second quarter of 2026 (Bureau of Economic Analysis), above the $1,198 billion rate for national defense: interest now costs more than the military. Debt held by the public is $31.5 trillion as of the first quarter of 2026, so each extra percentage point of interest is about $315 billion a year once the debt reprices — roughly a quarter of the defense budget.

BLOOMBERG7 sources

5not newslongformIran war

U.S. emergency oil reserve falls to 286.6 million barrels, its lowest since 1982, after releasing 128 million barrels during the Iran war

That is about 40% of the reserve's capacity, and Washington has promised allies another 44 million barrels to reach the 172 million it pledged.

What the emptier reserve can and cannot cover: The reserve holds crude oil, not gasoline. Refineries have to process it first, so opening the caverns cannot fix a fuel shortage on its own. Pipelines from the reserve reach 24 Gulf Coast refineries but only six elsewhere (Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky). The coasts need ships. The four connected marine terminals can move 2.62 million barrels a day, about 60% of the reserve's advertised 4.4-million-barrel daily maximum. A 2014 test by the Energy Department's inspector general, the agency's internal auditor, found the reserve could sustain 4.25 million barrels a day rather than the 4.4 million design figure.

ContextCongress built the reserve after the 1973 Arab oil embargo, when Arab producers cut off shipments to the United States and prices spiked. It ended 1982 at 293.83 million barrels, enough to replace 68 days of that year's net oil imports. The only comparable modern drawdown came in March 2022, when President Biden ordered 180 million barrels sold over six months — but that sale started from about 580 million barrels. This one began in late February 2026 at 415.4 million, 28% less oil in the ground at the outset. The Energy Information Administration's weekly inventory series (WCSSTUS1), charted below, tracks the same slide.

ABC NEWS1 source

Wednesday · The daily brief

Sep 22026

5 leads32 briefs21 min

BoardScroll

Executive summary5 stories

News news4

  1. U.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1Trump said a bigger attack was "waiting in the wings" and that afterward "there will be very little left" of Iran's government; Iran's armed forces vowed to "impose a heavy cost on the American enemy."
  2. U.S. crude passes $90 a barrel, up 12% in a week, as U.S.-Iran war intensifiesEuropean natural-gas futures closed at their highest level since January 2023, while U.S. stocks fell and Treasury bond yields rose.
  3. House passes the Senate's temporary funding bill 370-48, keeping agencies at current levels through December 11 and sending it to TrumpThe same bill pushes back a ban on most intoxicating hemp products by about a month and bars the White House budget office from finalizing a rule that would put political appointees over individual grant awards.
  4. Ten-year Treasury yield hit 4.78% on Tuesday, Sept. 1, its highest since January 2025The 30-year yield sat near 5.25%; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the rise "a growth story" and said, "I don't think we are in any kind of a dire situation."

Not news news1

  1. U.S. emergency oil reserve falls to 286.6 million barrels, its lowest since 1982, after releasing 128 million barrels during the Iran warThat is about 40% of the reserve's capacity, and Washington has promised allies another 44 million barrels to reach the 172 million it pledged.

News news4 stories

Ongoing11 earlier updates41 days

This story has run 12 times over 41 days, starting Jul 23.

  1. Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
  2. Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
  3. Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
  4. Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
  5. Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
  6. Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
  7. Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
  8. Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
  9. UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
  10. U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
  11. UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
  12. UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1 — this issue
NBC NEWSUpdate

U.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1

Trump said heavier strikes would follow any Iranian response, and Iranian military bodies said they would retaliate again.

U.S. forces struck Revolutionary Guard air-defense, radar, maritime, mine-laying and communications sites across Iran's southern coast beginning at 12 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Sept. 1, hitting about 100 targets in an attack that ran roughly six and a half hours. The Revolutionary Guard is a branch of Iran's armed forces separate from the regular army. Iranian military bodies said they would retaliate again, and Trump said heavier strikes would follow any Iranian response.

The stated justification was recent attempted attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and on American service members. Iranian state media reported that a strike at a wedding in Kuhestak, in Hormozgan province on the strait's north shore, killed four people. Central Command said it was aware of those reports and did not claim the strike. Neither side has released a damage assessment or a casualty total for the day's roughly 100 targets.

Catch upwhat happened before · 11 earlier issues
  • Jul. 23 — Trump threatened to bomb Iranian bridges and power plants for every ship hit in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Jul. 28 — Iran fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. base in Jordan; all were intercepted.
  • Aug. 4-5 — Tehran denied Trump's claim that new talks would begin, and a cargo ship was struck in the strait.
  • Aug. 10 — Iran said it would keep Hormuz closed until Washington unfroze its assets, lifted the blockade and restored the June memorandum.
  • Aug. 17 — A projectile killed a crew member aboard a ship leaving Hormuz.
  • Aug. 18 — With a 60-day talks window expiring, Trump threatened to bomb Oman, the ally brokering the reopening deal.
  • Aug. 20 — Trump declared an "economic D-Day" on Iran and threatened third countries, as only 10 to 12 ships a day crossed the strait, 85% below normal.
  • Aug. 29 — After nearly a month without large strikes, the administration called its military goals complete and shifted to an open-ended sanctions campaign.
  • Aug. 31 — U.S. forces destroyed two rocket launchers on Larak Island loaded to mine the strait, killing two; Iran answered with eight missiles at Jordan, all intercepted, and Brent crude passed $90.
10 earlier issues
BackgroundWhat each acknowledged U.S. strike inside Iran has hit since 20253 facts
  • Sept. 1, 2026: about 100 targets in roughly 6½ hours, from noon until Central Command announced completion at 6:33 p.m. ET.
  • June 22, 2025, "Midnight Hammer": three nuclear facilities, about 75 weapons, roughly 30 minutes.
  • Feb. 28–April 2026: the opening campaign struck about 13,000 targets over 38 days.

Related reading

RELATEDA projectile hit a ship's engine room during an outbound Hormuz transit on Aug. 17, killing a crew member

Maritime monitors logged a second vessel attacked two days earlier, on Aug. 15, and a tanker struck by three projectiles east of Oman on Monday, Aug. 31. None of the three attacks has been publicly attributed to the Revolutionary Guard.

RELATED 2Russia has secretly helped Iran build a supersonic cruise-missile engine since 2023, the Financial Times reports

A multiyear program the FT identifies as C430L put experienced Russian missile specialists to work on a ramjet, the engine that lets a cruise missile hold several times the speed of sound and that would put U.S. carriers in the Gulf within reach. The account rests on leaked Russian correspondence and patent filings. Iran has built and flight-tested the engine; no Russian-assisted missile has been seen in use.

RELATED 3Putin told Iran's president on Sept. 1 that Russia will keep supplying "necessary goods" through the war, and said he has ordered large-scale strikes on Ukraine's power grid

The pledge came at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Kyrgyzstan, where Putin met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and the bloc's leaders condemned the U.S. strikes for "numerous civilian casualties." The same day Putin called reports of a new Russian mobilization "absolute nonsense." Iran supplied Russia the drone designs it has used against Ukraine since 2022.

SEMI-RELATEDJordan says its air defenses intercepted 10 of 13 ballistic missiles crossing its airspace, with three landing in uninhabited areas

Read more about: Jordan says its air defenses intercepted 10 of 13 ballistic missiles crossing its airspace, with three landing in uninhabited areas

No casualties were reported. This was a separate, larger volley than the eight missiles Jordan's military said it destroyed earlier.

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

U.S. crude passes $90 a barrel, up 12% in a week, as U.S.-Iran war intensifies

European natural-gas futures closed at their highest level since January 2023, while U.S. stocks fell and Treasury bond yields rose.

U.S. benchmark crude exceeded $90 a barrel on Tuesday, Sept. 1, 2026, as fighting between U.S. and Iranian forces intensified. That was a reported increase of about 12% over one week. European natural-gas futures reached their highest level since January 2023. U.S. stocks fell and government bond yields rose the same day as markets priced in greater risks of disrupted energy supplies and renewed inflation.

BackgroundWhat the Hormuz disruption has done to flows, insurance and freight3 facts
  • Ship-tracking estimates put oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz at 2 million to 6 million barrels a day, against about 15 million before the war — a 60% to 87% shortfall.
  • War-risk insurance on ships entering the Gulf ran 7.5% to 10% of a vessel's hull value on July 22, up from 1% to 3% only weeks earlier, per broker Marsh.
  • Tanker freight on the Argus index reached $11.09 a barrel by April 8, up 54.6% from $7.17 before the war, and rate reports on Sept. 1 described new records.
Chart · pipeline render▲ label over mark

West Texas Intermediate spot price

West Texas Intermediate spot price Daily EIA spot observations through Aug. 25; Sept. 1 point as reported by The Wall Street Journal Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration via FRED (DCOILWTICO), dollars per barrel $75 $80 $85 $90 $95 $80.7 $90 2026-07-15 2026-07-27 2026-08-05 2026-08-17 2026-09-01
Source: Iran escalation drives oil above $90 and European gas to a three-year highPOLI

Related reading

RELATEDTrump pressed about a dozen refiners at the White House on Sept. 1 to expand capacity, with gasoline at $4.08 a gallon, about 90 cents above a year ago

The meeting covered faster permitting, regulatory changes and new investment, and the White House paired it with the Aug. 28 Venezuela deal giving the United States majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of reserves. Refiners have reported bumper profits through the war; no company committed to a specific output increase. The AAA national average was $4.08 on Aug. 31.

Ongoing1 earlier update

This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 1.

  1. House votes Sept. 1 on a stopgap that funds the government to Dec. 11, pushing the shutdown deadline past the midterms
  2. UpdateHouse passes the Senate's temporary funding bill 370-48, keeping agencies at current levels through December 11 and sending it to Trump — this issue
POLITICOUpdate

House passes the Senate's temporary funding bill 370-48, keeping agencies at current levels through December 11 and sending it to Trump

The same bill pushes back a ban on most intoxicating hemp products by about a month and bars the White House budget office from finalizing a rule that would put political appointees over individual grant awards.

The Senate passed the temporary funding bill 90-6 on Aug. 8 and the House cleared it 370-48 on Tuesday, Sept. 1, 2026, sending it to Trump for an expected signature and removing the threat of a shutdown before the midterms. The measure keeps agencies funded at current levels through Dec. 11, 2026. The 48 opponents included 19 Republicans and 29 Democrats. The bill also delays the ban on most intoxicating hemp products by about one month. Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (Rep-R Maryland) said producers had already had 10 months to pursue regulation. The U.S. Hemp Roundtable called the delay one additional month and pledged to make every day count.

Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

The Senate passed a temporary funding bill 90-6 on Aug. 8, keeping agencies at current levels and moving the next deadline to Dec. 11. House leaders then scheduled a one-day vote for Sept. 1, aiming to push the shutdown cliff five weeks past the Nov. 3 midterms.

What December 11 puts back on the tableAfter December 12, federal law counts a product as hemp only at 0.3% or less total THC by dry weight, with no more than 0.4…3 details
  • Industry advocates estimate about 95% of hemp products now on shelves would fail that test and revert to marijuana under the Controlled Substances Act.
  • None of the 12 regular FY2027 spending bills has reached Trump: the House has passed three, the Senate none.
Ongoing2 earlier updates13 days

This story has run 3 times over 13 days, starting Aug 20.

  1. Treasury doubled planned bond buybacks to $4 billion and the 30-year yield fell to 5.18%
  2. Treasury doubles long-bond buybacks as Druckenmiller warns against rate management
  3. Ten-year Treasury yield hit 4.78% on Tuesday, Sept. 1, its highest since January 2025 — this issue
BLOOMBERG

Ten-year Treasury yield hit 4.78% on Tuesday, Sept. 1, its highest since January 2025

The 30-year yield sat near 5.25%; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the rise "a growth story" and said, "I don't think we are in any kind of a dire situation."

The 10-year Treasury yield — the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for 10 years, set by traders every day — was reported at 4.78% to 4.79% on Tuesday, Sept. 1. That is its highest level since January 2025. The 30-year yield was near 5.25% and the two-year yield was 4.37%. Annual U.S. inflation was last reported at 3.4% for July, above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Bessent said stronger growth was a major driver of the rise, and that growth was picking up again. ([TS]Real GDP grew 2.1% and 1.5% annualized in the first two quarters of 2026, after 3.8% and 4.4% in mid-2025 — BEA.) Higher Treasury yields push up mortgage, auto-loan and other consumer borrowing costs.

What a yield near 4.8% costs buyers and the TreasuryFreddie Mac's average 30-year mortgage rate — a weekly survey of what lenders are charging — was 6.66% on Aug. 27, up from 6.43%…3 details
  • Freddie Mac's average 30-year mortgage rate — a weekly survey of what lenders are charging — was 6.66% on Aug. 27, up from 6.43% on July 2. On the $431,400 median existing-home price with 20% down, that is about $52 more a month, or $628 a year.
  • Borrowing is still cheaper than the last time the 10-year sat at this level: Freddie Mac averaged 7.04% the week of Jan. 16, 2025.
  • Treasury's next 10-year and 30-year auctions — the scheduled sales where the government borrows new money from investors — are Sept. 9 and Sept. 10.

Quick bites9

  1. Canada tariffs $20B of U.S. goods Sept. 8; U.S. trade rep says no talks underway

    ABC NEWSUpdate

    Canada's retaliatory tariffs on $20 billion of American goods take effect September 8. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said talks could resume when U.S. officials "stop doing memes, stop throwing shade and stop trying to be tough." U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said none were underway and called the fight "more their emergency than ours."

    Catch upwhat happened before · 5 earlier issues
    • Aug. 20 — Trump paused a 50% tariff on roughly $20.2 billion of Canadian goods two hours before it took effect, pushing the deadline to Aug. 22 with no signed text.
    • Aug. 25 — Talks collapsed and the 50% duties took effect, with Trump threatening the same rate on autos and steel; Ottawa promised dollar-for-dollar retaliation Sept. 8.
    • Aug. 26 — Canada set matching tariffs on more than 700 American products, worth nearly $20 billion.
    • Aug. 31 — Trump described the measures as a rejection of all Canadian imports, though the covered goods are about 5% of U.S. purchases from Canada.
    • Sep. 1 — Negotiations broke down again with each side blaming the other, leaving 50% U.S. tariffs on $27.6 billion of Canadian goods and Republicans in Congress pressing the trade representative.
    4 earlier issues
    The numbersThe U.S. tariff on covered Canadian goods is 50%.4 details
    • The U.S. tariff on covered Canadian goods is 50%.
    • ABC and the Guardian put the covered imports at about $20 billion; the Hill reports $27.6 billion.
    • Industrial supplies and materials, including energy, make up 51.6% of what the U.S. buys from Canada, ahead of autos and parts at 13.9%.
    • Carney also rejected U.S. demands he said would wipe out Canadian industries or limit Canada's future trade deals.
    Ongoing5

    This story has run 6 times over 13 days, starting Aug 20.

    1. Trump pauses 50% Canada tariff two hours before it hits, buying three days
    2. Trump imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods and threatened the same rate on autos and steel
    3. Canada tariffs nearly $20 billion in U.S. goods to match Trump’s 50% levies
    4. Trump calls it a rejection of all Canadian imports; the enacted 50% tariffs cover about 5%
    5. Trade talks with Canada collapse, leaving 50% U.S. tariffs on $27.6 billion of Canadian goods
    6. UpdateCanada tariffs $20B of U.S. goods Sept. 8; U.S. trade rep says no talks underway — this issue
    Currently showing U.S. goods trade with Canada
    U.S. goods trade with Canada
    U.S. goods trade with Canada Annual bilateral goods trade and Canadian import mix (Census basis) $650B $700B $750B $800B $850B $665B $762B 2021 2022 2024 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, BEA end-use estimates, USAFacts

  2. DHS says ICE has no polling-place operations planned but can enter for a threat or warrant

    NBC NEWSUpdate

    “ICE isn’t there to patrol the polling places,” Mullin said, adding that agents serving a warrant “will be where we need to be.”

    On Sep. 1, Joint Chiefs chairman Dan Caine said no U.S. troops would be sent to polling places for November's midterms, and ruled out any military role in seizing ballots or voting machines.

  3. Pentagon takes a 35% stake in the company holding 100-year rights to 17 Venezuelan oil fields

    CBS NEWSUpdate

    The concession now runs 100 years rather than 25, and the Pentagon's Office of Strategic Capital holds a 35% equity stake in the venture. The U.S. may buy 20% of production at cost, with first refusal on the rest. CBS reports oil could take at least two years, and possibly five to seven, to reach the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

    On Aug. 31, a U.S.-led venture won 25-year exclusive rights to 17 Venezuelan oil fields and access to 65 billion barrels, targeting more than 1.5 million barrels a day and over $100 billion in investment, with no start date or production schedule disclosed.

    Terms disclosedConcessions to North American Blue Energy Partners run 100 years across 17 fields.3 details
    • Concessions to North American Blue Energy Partners run 100 years across 17 fields.
    • The U.S. keeps substantial power to appoint board members.
    • BBC reports the deal is promoted as spurring new investment in Venezuela.

  4. State Dept draft rules would require parents to prove their own citizenship to get a child a passport

    THE GUARDIAN

    A child's passport application already requires a parent's ID and proof of the parental relationship. Reuters reported that a State Department draft would add a new demand: parents or guardians would also have to show proof of their own citizenship or immigration status.

    What's in the draftThe draft is not public.3 details
    • The draft is not public. Reuters described its contents; no State Department official has confirmed on the record that the requirement is in it.
    • The department has not said whether the draft is final, or when any change would take effect.
    • A State Department spokesman said the passport process must "fully reflect" how the administration defines American citizenship. He did not address what the draft says.

  5. New York says $87 million of its counterterror grants is still unpaid

    POLITICO

    New York says its counterterrorism allocation was cut twice, first by $87 million and then by another $100 million, and Trump announced both cuts had been reversed. Only the $100 million of that $187 million has come back, restored after a federal court order.

    The numbersThe two cuts totaled $187 million, about 86% of New York's previous allocation.3 details
    • The two cuts totaled $187 million, about 86% of New York's previous allocation.
    • New York got about $220 million in counterterrorism funding the prior fiscal year.
    • Mamdani said the disputed money would fully fund 12 New York bomb squads.

  6. Sanctioned Russian finance minister attended a US-hosted G20 and met Bessent, then was left out of the group photo

    NBC NEWS

    Siluanov, under US sanctions since April 2022, met Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on the sidelines of the US-hosted G20 finance meeting. He does not appear in the official group photograph.

    • German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil called the signal sent by receiving Siluanov "quite troubling."
    • The same meeting ended with no joint communiqué; Bessent blamed China.
    Ongoing3

    This story has run 4 times over 8 days, starting Aug 25.

    1. U.S. sanctions nearly 60 Iranian targets and threatens countries that keep trading with Tehran
    2. China rejects Trump’s threat to sanction Iran’s trading partners
    3. Bessent says new Iran sanctions will land every week, with another bank next
    4. Sanctioned Russian finance minister attended a US-hosted G20 and met Bessent, then was left out of the group photo — this issue

  7. California Assembly adjourned without voting on the wildfire victim compensation bill

    WSJ

    SB 492 would have sped up payments to fire victims and changed how much utilities owe. The Assembly adjourned without a vote, so neither change takes effect.

    • Utilities said the scaled-back bill did not cut what they could owe by enough
    • SB 492 never got a floor vote before the Assembly adjourned

  8. ICE will equip every field agent with a body camera by September 30

    NPRRelatedICE's "Operation Rotten Apple" made 2,197 arrests across New York in 30 daysRelatedTPS for about 350,000 Haitians ended in August; Springfield, Ohio's Haitians lost work permits and driver's licensesRelatedImmigration judges denied 94% of asylum claims in June, up from 50% in June 2024 and 57% in June 2023

    Secretary Markwayne Mullin said the agency has enough equipment to hit that date.

    RELATEDICE's "Operation Rotten Apple" made 2,197 arrests across New York in 30 days

    Mullin called them "the worst of the worst" and gave no count of how many had a criminal record.

    RELATED 2TPS for about 350,000 Haitians ended in August; Springfield, Ohio's Haitians lost work permits and driver's licenses

    Temporary Protected Status lets nationals of a country in crisis work here legally; Haiti's dated to the 2010 earthquake, and the exit offer is $2,600 plus a flight.

    RELATED 3Immigration judges denied 94% of asylum claims in June, up from 50% in June 2024 and 57% in June 2023

    TRAC counts 771 grants in June against a 3.38 million-case backlog, with more than 270 judges gone since fiscal 2025.

  9. DOJ sues Kansas City, Kansas schools over letting students socially transition without telling parents

    DOJ sues Kansas City, Kansas schools over guidance that lets students socially transition without telling parents

    DOJ alleges the guidance breaks FERPA and the Protection of Pupil Rights Amendment. It has reportedly been used since 2017. The district has more than 20,000 students and disputes the claim. It says it weighs requests case by case. Dhillon says other districts remain under investigation.

Elections22 races

The midterms · 62 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
today · 7-day panel

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 90%, Kalshi 85%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 51%, Kalshi 48%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 84.5–89.5%
90%85%chance Democrats take it · 5.0pp apart · no clear move — the venues went opposite ways
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 90% and Kalshi 85%.
U.S. Senate — Republicans retain it, 49.5–52.5%
51%48%chance Democrats take it · 3.0pp apart · no clear move — one venue moved, the other did not
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 51% and Kalshi 48%.

No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only

How to read thisthe contract, the key, and the week panel

Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.

  • two venues, priced separately
  • shaded = how far apart they are
  • 50% — control flips here
  • where it stood 7 days ago
  • the last 7 days, on its own scale
  • Polymarket, solid
  • Kalshi, dashed

Both lines in a week panel are the same contract, priced by two venues — not one line per party. Its colour is whose chance the bar is measuring, which is why a panel can be blue while the verdict beside it reads Republicans favoured.

The 3 closest of 22 races. Open one, or all of them — every race is on the page either way.

  • mTexas SenateTalarico50.5%Paxton50.5%books splitJames Talarico 50.0%▲0.7Ken Paxton 49.5%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    Ken Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D).

    The only race here where the two venues do not agree on who is ahead.

    The books name different leaders

    Texas Senate

    Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.

    Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp

    Texas Senate. Lead in percentage points, positive to James Talarico. Polymarket: Talarico ahead by 2 points. Kalshi: Paxton ahead by 1 point. Every day is in the table below.

    Talarico aheadPaxton ahead2%tied2%7d agotodayTalarico +2%PolymarketPaxton +1%Kalshi

    today

    • Talarico+2%Polymarket
    • Paxton+1%Kalshi
    • Talarico50.5%Polymarket
    • Talarico49.5%Kalshi
    • Paxton48.5%Polymarket
    • Paxton50.5%Kalshi

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • qOhio SenateSherrod Brown 53.8%Jon Husted 46.3%▲0.8

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 53.0%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 47.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • kOhio governorAmy Acton 55.5%▲1.3Vivek Ramaswamy 43.5%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 4.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 12 still in doubt · Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT · markets, not polling

Senate8 of 10

  • nAlaska SenateMary Peltola 64.8%▲1.9Dan Sullivan 36.0%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 63.5%, Kalshi 66.0%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 35.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • vGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 93.38%▲0.8Collins 6.63%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.50%, Kalshi 93.25%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 6.40%, Kalshi 6.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • oIowa SenateAshley Hinson 62.8%▲2.8Josh Turek 38.3%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 64.0%, Kalshi 61.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 37.0%, Kalshi 39.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • lMaine SenateTroy Jackson 69.5%▲0.4Susan Collins 30.8%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 69.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 31.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • pMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 64.8%▲2.2Mike Rogers 35.3%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about three points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 65.5%, Kalshi 64.0%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 34.5%, Kalshi 36.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • wNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 70.0%Dan Osborn 29.8%▲0.3

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 69.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 30.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • xNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 83.5%16.0%Sununu▲2.5

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) leads the unresolved Democratic primary; John E. Sununu (R) leads the unresolved Republican primary.

    Neither nomination is official yet, though the market already treats both as decided — the Democratic side lost about three points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 83.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 16.5%, Kalshi 15.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • uNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 91.33%8.60%Whatley▲0.3

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 0.4pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 91.50%, Kalshi 91.15%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.5%, Kalshi 8.7%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors11 of 12

  • zAlaska governorBernadette Wilson 33.00%66.2%Begich 0.75%▲2.8

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: Begich is down about sixteen points.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 5.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 30.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.25%, Kalshi 0.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 5.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • abArizona governorKatie Hobbs 87.3%13.3%Biggs▲0.5

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.5%, Kalshi 87.0%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 14.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • afFlorida governorByron Donalds 81.0%▲0.2Jolly 18.8%

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 19.0%, Kalshi 18.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • sGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 59.8%Rick Jackson 39.5%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 60.0%, Kalshi 59.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yIowa governorRob Sand 76.5%▲0.6Zach Lahn 25.5%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 76.5%, Kalshi 76.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 24.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aaMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 90.7%▲1.19.3%James

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 91.5%, Kalshi 89.8%; John James (R): Polymarket 8.0%, Kalshi 10.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • tNevada governorJoe Lombardo 57.5%Aaron Ford 40.5%▲1.7

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • adNew York governorKathy Hochul 94.3%Blakeman 6.2%▲0.4

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.5%, Kalshi 94.0%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 5.5%, Kalshi 6.8%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aePennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 96.35%▲0.6Garrity 2.80%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.7pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 95.5%, Kalshi 97.2%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.25%, Kalshi 3.35%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.7pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • acTexas governorGreg Abbott 82.42%18.25%Hinojosa▲3.4

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead after the Democratic side gained about three points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 2.1pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 81.35%, Kalshi 83.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 18.0%, Kalshi 18.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.1pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • rWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 80.3%Tiffany 20.0%

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 79.0%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Also in elections1

  • jUSPS built Trump's mail-ballot portal in 3 months, and one mismatched scan can reject a whole batch

    THE GUARDIAN: A federal judge halts Trump's USPS mail-ballot portal, which the agency built in 3 months

    A whistleblower says USPS was given three months for work that normally takes about a year, and that the portal's scanners sample 15 to 400 envelopes per batch while allowing no failed matches. The administration is appealing the judge's order.

    The numbers:

    • Time USPS was given to build the portal: 3 months.
    • Development time the whistleblower said the portal would normally need: about 1 year.
    • Envelopes the scanners sample per batch, per the disclosure: 15 to 400, at a 0% permitted failure rate.

    A whistleblower disclosure released by Richard Blumenthal (Sen-D Connecticut) says the system went out untested.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Not news news1 story

Ongoing2 earlier updates2 days

This story has run 3 times over 2 days, starting Aug 31.

  1. U.S.-led venture gets 25-year rights to 17 Venezuelan oil fields and access to 65 billion barrels
  2. UpdatePentagon takes a 35% stake in the venture given exclusive rights to 17 Venezuelan oil fields
  3. U.S. emergency oil reserve falls to 286.6 million barrels, its lowest since 1982, after releasing 128 million barrels during the Iran war — this issue
ABC NEWS

U.S. emergency oil reserve falls to 286.6 million barrels, its lowest since 1982, after releasing 128 million barrels during the Iran war

That is about 40% of the reserve's capacity, and Washington has promised allies another 44 million barrels to reach the 172 million it pledged.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve — the government's emergency stockpile of crude oil, stored in underground salt caverns along the Gulf Coast — fell to 286.6 million barrels in the week ending Friday, Aug. 28. That is its lowest level since 1982, and about 40% of what the caverns can hold. The reserve lost more than 3 million barrels in that single week. Since the war with Iran began, the United States has released roughly 128 million barrels of the 172 million it pledged to allies, pulling the stockpile down from 415.4 million barrels when the sales started in late February 2026. The releases are part of a coordinated international effort against what officials call a record supply disruption. Gasoline and crude prices have kept climbing through it.

What the emptier reserve can and cannot coverThe reserve holds crude oil, not gasoline.4 details
  • The reserve holds crude oil, not gasoline. Refineries have to process it first, so opening the caverns cannot fix a fuel shortage on its own.
  • Pipelines from the reserve reach 24 Gulf Coast refineries but only six elsewhere (Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky). The coasts need ships.
  • The four connected marine terminals can move 2.62 million barrels a day, about 60% of the reserve's advertised 4.4-million-barrel daily maximum.
  • A 2014 test by the Energy Department's inspector general, the agency's internal auditor, found the reserve could sustain 4.25 million barrels a day rather than the 4.4 million design figure.
Currently showing U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory Annual last weekly observation through 2025; 2026 point as reported by ABC News Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (WCSSTUS1), million barrels; annual last observation; 2026 en 200 400 600 800 293.2 286.6 Biden orders 180M-bbl release Iran war releases begin 2022: Biden orders 180M-bbl release; 2026: Iran war releases begin 1982 1993 2004 2015 2026

Related reading

RELATEDGAO says aging wells and cavern outages have cut how fast the reserve can actually deliver oil

More than a quarter of the reserve's oil was unavailable in December 2025, before this year's drawdown began, because of construction work and cavern outages, according to the Government Accountability Office, the audit agency that works for Congress.