News news4 stories
Ongoing11 earlier updates41 days
This story has run 12 times over 41 days, starting Jul 23.
- Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
- Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
- Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
- Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
- Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
- Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
- Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
- Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
- UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
- U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
- UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
- UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1 — this issue
Trump said heavier strikes would follow any Iranian response, and Iranian military bodies said they would retaliate again.
U.S. forces struck Revolutionary Guard air-defense, radar, maritime, mine-laying and communications sites across Iran's southern coast beginning at 12 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Sept. 1, hitting about 100 targets in an attack that ran roughly six and a half hours. The Revolutionary Guard is a branch of Iran's armed forces separate from the regular army. Iranian military bodies said they would retaliate again, and Trump said heavier strikes would follow any Iranian response.
The stated justification was recent attempted attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and on American service members. Iranian state media reported that a strike at a wedding in Kuhestak, in Hormozgan province on the strait's north shore, killed four people. Central Command said it was aware of those reports and did not claim the strike. Neither side has released a damage assessment or a casualty total for the day's roughly 100 targets.
Catch up
- Jul. 23 — Trump threatened to bomb Iranian bridges and power plants for every ship hit in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Jul. 28 — Iran fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. base in Jordan; all were intercepted.
- Aug. 4-5 — Tehran denied Trump's claim that new talks would begin, and a cargo ship was struck in the strait.
- Aug. 10 — Iran said it would keep Hormuz closed until Washington unfroze its assets, lifted the blockade and restored the June memorandum.
- Aug. 17 — A projectile killed a crew member aboard a ship leaving Hormuz.
- Aug. 18 — With a 60-day talks window expiring, Trump threatened to bomb Oman, the ally brokering the reopening deal.
- Aug. 20 — Trump declared an "economic D-Day" on Iran and threatened third countries, as only 10 to 12 ships a day crossed the strait, 85% below normal.
- Aug. 29 — After nearly a month without large strikes, the administration called its military goals complete and shifted to an open-ended sanctions campaign.
- Aug. 31 — U.S. forces destroyed two rocket launchers on Larak Island loaded to mine the strait, killing two; Iran answered with eight missiles at Jordan, all intercepted, and Brent crude passed $90.
- UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
10 earlier issues
- Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
- Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
- Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
- Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
- Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
- Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
- Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
- Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
- UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
- U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
BackgroundWhat each acknowledged U.S. strike inside Iran has hit since 2025
- Sept. 1, 2026: about 100 targets in roughly 6½ hours, from noon until Central Command announced completion at 6:33 p.m. ET.
- June 22, 2025, "Midnight Hammer": three nuclear facilities, about 75 weapons, roughly 30 minutes.
- Feb. 28–April 2026: the opening campaign struck about 13,000 targets over 38 days.
Related reading
Maritime monitors logged a second vessel attacked two days earlier, on Aug. 15, and a tanker struck by three projectiles east of Oman on Monday, Aug. 31. None of the three attacks has been publicly attributed to the Revolutionary Guard.
A multiyear program the FT identifies as C430L put experienced Russian missile specialists to work on a ramjet, the engine that lets a cruise missile hold several times the speed of sound and that would put U.S. carriers in the Gulf within reach. The account rests on leaked Russian correspondence and patent filings. Iran has built and flight-tested the engine; no Russian-assisted missile has been seen in use.
The pledge came at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Kyrgyzstan, where Putin met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and the bloc's leaders condemned the U.S. strikes for "numerous civilian casualties." The same day Putin called reports of a new Russian mobilization "absolute nonsense." Iran supplied Russia the drone designs it has used against Ukraine since 2022.
Read more about: Jordan says its air defenses intercepted 10 of 13 ballistic missiles crossing its airspace, with three landing in uninhabited areas
No casualties were reported. This was a separate, larger volley than the eight missiles Jordan's military said it destroyed earlier.
European natural-gas futures closed at their highest level since January 2023, while U.S. stocks fell and Treasury bond yields rose.
U.S. benchmark crude exceeded $90 a barrel on Tuesday, Sept. 1, 2026, as fighting between U.S. and Iranian forces intensified. That was a reported increase of about 12% over one week. European natural-gas futures reached their highest level since January 2023. U.S. stocks fell and government bond yields rose the same day as markets priced in greater risks of disrupted energy supplies and renewed inflation.
BackgroundWhat the Hormuz disruption has done to flows, insurance and freight
- Ship-tracking estimates put oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz at 2 million to 6 million barrels a day, against about 15 million before the war — a 60% to 87% shortfall.
- War-risk insurance on ships entering the Gulf ran 7.5% to 10% of a vessel's hull value on July 22, up from 1% to 3% only weeks earlier, per broker Marsh.
- Tanker freight on the Argus index reached $11.09 a barrel by April 8, up 54.6% from $7.17 before the war, and rate reports on Sept. 1 described new records.
West Texas Intermediate spot price
Related reading
The meeting covered faster permitting, regulatory changes and new investment, and the White House paired it with the Aug. 28 Venezuela deal giving the United States majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of reserves. Refiners have reported bumper profits through the war; no company committed to a specific output increase. The AAA national average was $4.08 on Aug. 31.
Ongoing1 earlier update
This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 1.
- House votes Sept. 1 on a stopgap that funds the government to Dec. 11, pushing the shutdown deadline past the midterms
- UpdateHouse passes the Senate's temporary funding bill 370-48, keeping agencies at current levels through December 11 and sending it to Trump — this issue
The same bill pushes back a ban on most intoxicating hemp products by about a month and bars the White House budget office from finalizing a rule that would put political appointees over individual grant awards.
The Senate passed the temporary funding bill 90-6 on Aug. 8 and the House cleared it 370-48 on Tuesday, Sept. 1, 2026, sending it to Trump for an expected signature and removing the threat of a shutdown before the midterms. The measure keeps agencies funded at current levels through Dec. 11, 2026. The 48 opponents included 19 Republicans and 29 Democrats. The bill also delays the ban on most intoxicating hemp products by about one month. Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (Rep-R Maryland) said producers had already had 10 months to pursue regulation. The U.S. Hemp Roundtable called the delay one additional month and pledged to make every day count.
Catch up
The Senate passed a temporary funding bill 90-6 on Aug. 8, keeping agencies at current levels and moving the next deadline to Dec. 11. House leaders then scheduled a one-day vote for Sept. 1, aiming to push the shutdown cliff five weeks past the Nov. 3 midterms.
What December 11 puts back on the table
- Worth knowingA product’s current hemp label or compliance under the old standard does not satisfy this rule. It must meet both the total-THC limit and the per-container cap.
- Industry advocates estimate about 95% of hemp products now on shelves would fail that test and revert to marijuana under the Controlled Substances Act.
- None of the 12 regular FY2027 spending bills has reached Trump: the House has passed three, the Senate none.
Ongoing2 earlier updates13 days
This story has run 3 times over 13 days, starting Aug 20.
- Treasury doubled planned bond buybacks to $4 billion and the 30-year yield fell to 5.18%
- Treasury doubles long-bond buybacks as Druckenmiller warns against rate management
- Ten-year Treasury yield hit 4.78% on Tuesday, Sept. 1, its highest since January 2025 — this issue
The 30-year yield sat near 5.25%; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the rise "a growth story" and said, "I don't think we are in any kind of a dire situation."
The 10-year Treasury yield — the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for 10 years, set by traders every day — was reported at 4.78% to 4.79% on Tuesday, Sept. 1. That is its highest level since January 2025. The 30-year yield was near 5.25% and the two-year yield was 4.37%. Annual U.S. inflation was last reported at 3.4% for July, above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Bessent said stronger growth was a major driver of the rise, and that growth was picking up again. ([TS]Real GDP grew 2.1% and 1.5% annualized in the first two quarters of 2026, after 3.8% and 4.4% in mid-2025 — BEA.) Higher Treasury yields push up mortgage, auto-loan and other consumer borrowing costs.
What a yield near 4.8% costs buyers and the Treasury
- Freddie Mac's average 30-year mortgage rate — a weekly survey of what lenders are charging — was 6.66% on Aug. 27, up from 6.43% on July 2. On the $431,400 median existing-home price with 20% down, that is about $52 more a month, or $628 a year.
- Borrowing is still cheaper than the last time the 10-year sat at this level: Freddie Mac averaged 7.04% the week of Jan. 16, 2025.
- Treasury's next 10-year and 30-year auctions — the scheduled sales where the government borrows new money from investors — are Sept. 9 and Sept. 10.
Quick bites9
Canada tariffs $20B of U.S. goods Sept. 8; U.S. trade rep says no talks underway
ABC NEWSUpdateCanada's retaliatory tariffs on $20 billion of American goods take effect September 8. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said talks could resume when U.S. officials "stop doing memes, stop throwing shade and stop trying to be tough." U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said none were underway and called the fight "more their emergency than ours."
Catch up
- Aug. 20 — Trump paused a 50% tariff on roughly $20.2 billion of Canadian goods two hours before it took effect, pushing the deadline to Aug. 22 with no signed text.
- Aug. 25 — Talks collapsed and the 50% duties took effect, with Trump threatening the same rate on autos and steel; Ottawa promised dollar-for-dollar retaliation Sept. 8.
- Aug. 26 — Canada set matching tariffs on more than 700 American products, worth nearly $20 billion.
- Aug. 31 — Trump described the measures as a rejection of all Canadian imports, though the covered goods are about 5% of U.S. purchases from Canada.
- Sep. 1 — Negotiations broke down again with each side blaming the other, leaving 50% U.S. tariffs on $27.6 billion of Canadian goods and Republicans in Congress pressing the trade representative.
4 earlier issues
- Trump pauses 50% Canada tariff two hours before it hits, buying three days
- Trump imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods and threatened the same rate on autos and steel
- Canada tariffs nearly $20 billion in U.S. goods to match Trump’s 50% levies
- Trump calls it a rejection of all Canadian imports; the enacted 50% tariffs cover about 5%
The numbers
- The U.S. tariff on covered Canadian goods is 50%.
- ABC and the Guardian put the covered imports at about $20 billion; the Hill reports $27.6 billion.
- Industrial supplies and materials, including energy, make up 51.6% of what the U.S. buys from Canada, ahead of autos and parts at 13.9%.
- Carney also rejected U.S. demands he said would wipe out Canadian industries or limit Canada's future trade deals.
Ongoing5
This story has run 6 times over 13 days, starting Aug 20.
- Trump pauses 50% Canada tariff two hours before it hits, buying three days
- Trump imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods and threatened the same rate on autos and steel
- Canada tariffs nearly $20 billion in U.S. goods to match Trump’s 50% levies
- Trump calls it a rejection of all Canadian imports; the enacted 50% tariffs cover about 5%
- Trade talks with Canada collapse, leaving 50% U.S. tariffs on $27.6 billion of Canadian goods
- UpdateCanada tariffs $20B of U.S. goods Sept. 8; U.S. trade rep says no talks underway — this issue
Currently showing U.S. goods trade with CanadaU.S. goods trade with CanadaDHS says ICE has no polling-place operations planned but can enter for a threat or warrant
NBC NEWSUpdate“ICE isn’t there to patrol the polling places,” Mullin said, adding that agents serving a warrant “will be where we need to be.”
On Sep. 1, Joint Chiefs chairman Dan Caine said no U.S. troops would be sent to polling places for November's midterms, and ruled out any military role in seizing ballots or voting machines.
Pentagon takes a 35% stake in the company holding 100-year rights to 17 Venezuelan oil fields
CBS NEWSUpdateThe concession now runs 100 years rather than 25, and the Pentagon's Office of Strategic Capital holds a 35% equity stake in the venture. The U.S. may buy 20% of production at cost, with first refusal on the rest. CBS reports oil could take at least two years, and possibly five to seven, to reach the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
On Aug. 31, a U.S.-led venture won 25-year exclusive rights to 17 Venezuelan oil fields and access to 65 billion barrels, targeting more than 1.5 million barrels a day and over $100 billion in investment, with no start date or production schedule disclosed.
Terms disclosed
- Concessions to North American Blue Energy Partners run 100 years across 17 fields.
- The U.S. keeps substantial power to appoint board members.
- BBC reports the deal is promoted as spurring new investment in Venezuela.
State Dept draft rules would require parents to prove their own citizenship to get a child a passport
THE GUARDIANA child's passport application already requires a parent's ID and proof of the parental relationship. Reuters reported that a State Department draft would add a new demand: parents or guardians would also have to show proof of their own citizenship or immigration status.
What's in the draft
- The draft is not public. Reuters described its contents; no State Department official has confirmed on the record that the requirement is in it.
- The department has not said whether the draft is final, or when any change would take effect.
- A State Department spokesman said the passport process must "fully reflect" how the administration defines American citizenship. He did not address what the draft says.
New York says $87 million of its counterterror grants is still unpaid
POLITICONew York says its counterterrorism allocation was cut twice, first by $87 million and then by another $100 million, and Trump announced both cuts had been reversed. Only the $100 million of that $187 million has come back, restored after a federal court order.
The numbers
- The two cuts totaled $187 million, about 86% of New York's previous allocation.
- New York got about $220 million in counterterrorism funding the prior fiscal year.
- Mamdani said the disputed money would fully fund 12 New York bomb squads.
Sanctioned Russian finance minister attended a US-hosted G20 and met Bessent, then was left out of the group photo
NBC NEWSSiluanov, under US sanctions since April 2022, met Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on the sidelines of the US-hosted G20 finance meeting. He does not appear in the official group photograph.
- German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil called the signal sent by receiving Siluanov "quite troubling."
- The same meeting ended with no joint communiqué; Bessent blamed China.
Ongoing3
This story has run 4 times over 8 days, starting Aug 25.
- U.S. sanctions nearly 60 Iranian targets and threatens countries that keep trading with Tehran
- China rejects Trump’s threat to sanction Iran’s trading partners
- Bessent says new Iran sanctions will land every week, with another bank next
- Sanctioned Russian finance minister attended a US-hosted G20 and met Bessent, then was left out of the group photo — this issue
California Assembly adjourned without voting on the wildfire victim compensation bill
WSJSB 492 would have sped up payments to fire victims and changed how much utilities owe. The Assembly adjourned without a vote, so neither change takes effect.
- Utilities said the scaled-back bill did not cut what they could owe by enough
- SB 492 never got a floor vote before the Assembly adjourned
ICE will equip every field agent with a body camera by September 30
NPRSecretary Markwayne Mullin said the agency has enough equipment to hit that date.
Mullin called them "the worst of the worst" and gave no count of how many had a criminal record.
Temporary Protected Status lets nationals of a country in crisis work here legally; Haiti's dated to the 2010 earthquake, and the exit offer is $2,600 plus a flight.
TRAC counts 771 grants in June against a 3.38 million-case backlog, with more than 270 judges gone since fiscal 2025.
DOJ sues Kansas City, Kansas schools over letting students socially transition without telling parents
DOJ sues Kansas City, Kansas schools over guidance that lets students socially transition without telling parents
DOJ alleges the guidance breaks FERPA and the Protection of Pupil Rights Amendment. It has reportedly been used since 2017. The district has more than 20,000 students and disputes the claim. It says it weighs requests case by case. Dhillon says other districts remain under investigation.
Elections22 races
The midterms · 62 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
today · 7-day panel
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 90%, Kalshi 85%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 51%, Kalshi 48%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
How to read thisthe contract, the key, and the week panel
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
Both lines in a week panel are the same contract, priced by two venues — not one line per party. Its colour is whose chance the bar is measuring, which is why a panel can be blue while the verdict beside it reads Republicans favoured.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 5.0pp gap / 3.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 89% | 85% | 51% | 49% |
| 6 days ago | 89% | 84% | 51% | 48% |
| 5 days ago | 89% | 84% | 51% | 48% |
| 4 days ago | 90% | 84% | 51% | 48% |
| 3 days ago | 89% | 85% | 51% | 48% |
| 2 days ago | 89% | 85% | 51% | 49% |
| yesterday | 90% | 85% | 51% | 48% |
| today | 90% | 85% | 51% | 48% |
The 3 closest of 22 races. Open one, or all of them — every race is on the page either way.
mTexas SenateTalarico50.5%Paxton50.5%books split
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
Ken Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D).
The only race here where the two venues do not agree on who is ahead.
The books name different leaders
Texas Senate
Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.
Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.0ppTexas Senate. Lead in percentage points, positive to James Talarico. Polymarket: Talarico ahead by 2 points. Kalshi: Paxton ahead by 1 point. Every day is in the table below.
today
- Talarico+2%Polymarket
- Paxton+1%Kalshi
- Talarico50.5%Polymarket
- Talarico49.5%Kalshi
- Paxton48.5%Polymarket
- Paxton50.5%Kalshi
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
The lead is one candidate’s price minus the other’s, at the same venue on the same day — never one book’s Tuesday against the other’s Thursday. It is drawn only where a venue priced both candidates, so a line starts late rather than being stretched across days it was never quoted over.
A day inside a tenth of a point is printed as levelrather than being rounded onto somebody’s side: on a chart whose whole subject is who is in front, a dead heat shown as a win is the one error that cannot be recovered from the drawing.
The markets: James Talarico Polymarket, Kalshi · Ken Paxton Polymarket, Kalshi
Every price behind the chart, and the lead it produces. Texas Senate, snapshot Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT. Day Talarico · Polymarket Paxton · Polymarket Lead · Polymarket Talarico · Kalshi Paxton · Kalshi Lead · Kalshi 7 days ago 49.5% 48.5% Talarico +1% 49.0% 51.0% Paxton +2% 6 days ago 49.5% 48.5% Talarico +1% 49.0% 51.0% Paxton +2% 5 days ago 49.5% 49.5% level 50.0% 51.0% Paxton +1% 4 days ago 49.5% 50.5% Paxton +1% 50.0% 50.0% level 3 days ago 50.0% 48.5% Talarico +1.5% 51.0% 51.0% level 2 days ago 50.5% 48.5% Talarico +2% 50.0% 51.0% Paxton +1% yesterday 50.5% 48.5% Talarico +2% 50.0% 51.0% Paxton +1% today 50.5% 48.5% Talarico +2% 49.5% 50.5% Paxton +1% qOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 53.0%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 47.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 53% · Jon Husted 47%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$110K55.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 52%/54%55.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$78.1K45%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 46%/48%47%venue gap2.0pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 55.5% 55% 45.0% 47% 6 days ago 55.5% 54% 45.5% 47% 5 days ago 54.5% 55% 45.5% 47% 4 days ago 54.5% 56% 45.5% 46% 3 days ago 54.5% 55% 45.5% 46% 2 days ago 54.5% 55% 45.5% 46% yesterday 54.5% 54% 45.5% 47% today 54.5% 53% 45.5% 47% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
kOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 57% · Vivek Ramaswamy 42%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$80.2K53.5%Kalshi699K contracts · 57%/58%57.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move0.0ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$96.5K46.5%Kalshi759K contracts · 41%/42%47.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 53.5% 57.0% 46.5% 47.0% 6 days ago 54.5% 56.0% 46.5% 45.0% 5 days ago 53.5% 56.0% 45.5% 44.0% 4 days ago 53.5% 57.0% 46.5% 44.0% 3 days ago 53.5% 57.0% 46.5% 44.0% 2 days ago 53.5% 57.0% 46.5% 43.0% yesterday 53.5% 58.0% 45.5% 42.0% today 53.5% 57.5% 45.5% 41.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 19 races
Senate8 of 10
nAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 63.5%, Kalshi 66.0%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 35.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 64% · Dan Sullivan 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$244K64.5%Kalshi77.2K contracts · 65%/67%64.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$137K36.5%Kalshi72.1K contracts · 34%/37%41.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 64.5% 64% 36.5% 41.0% 6 days ago 66.5% 65% 34.5% 39.0% 5 days ago 65.0% 64% 35.5% 39.0% 4 days ago 64.5% 63% 34.5% 36.0% 3 days ago 65.0% 62% 34.5% 36.0% 2 days ago 63.5% 65% 36.5% 34.0% yesterday 63.5% 67% 36.5% 33.0% today 63.5% 66% 36.5% 35.5% vGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.50%, Kalshi 93.25%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 6.40%, Kalshi 6.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 93% · Mike Collins 6.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$49.1K93.5%Kalshi353K contracts · 93%/93%91.7%venue gap1.8pp7-day move0.0ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$74.5K6.05%Kalshi837K contracts · 6.5%/7.2%7.60%venue gap1.6pp7-day move+0.4ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 93.5% 91.70% 6.05% 7.60% 6 days ago 93.5% 92.10% 6.35% 8.00% 5 days ago 93.5% 92.70% 6.35% 7.90% 4 days ago 93.5% 92.60% 6.35% 8.10% 3 days ago 93.5% 92.80% 6.40% 7.70% 2 days ago 93.5% 93.00% 6.40% 7.50% yesterday 93.5% 93.40% 6.40% 7.40% today 93.5% 93.25% 6.40% 6.85% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
oIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 64.0%, Kalshi 61.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 37.0%, Kalshi 39.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 62% · Josh Turek 39%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$117K60.5%Kalshi997K contracts · 61%/62%58.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+3.5ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$109K39.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 39%/40%42.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-2.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 60.5% 58.0% 39.5% 42.0% 6 days ago 60.5% 59.0% 40.5% 42.0% 5 days ago 60.5% 59.0% 40.5% 42.0% 4 days ago 61.0% 59.0% 39.5% 42.0% 3 days ago 60.5% 59.0% 39.5% 41.0% 2 days ago 64.0% 62.0% 37.0% 39.0% yesterday 64.0% 62.0% 37.0% 40.0% today 64.0% 61.5% 37.0% 39.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
lMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 69.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 31.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 70% · Susan Collins 31%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$734K69.5%Kalshi1.9M contracts · 69%/70%69.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$496K30.5%Kalshi2.7M contracts · 30%/32%32.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 69.5% 69.0% 30.5% 32% 6 days ago 69.5% 67.0% 31.5% 35% 5 days ago 69.5% 69.0% 31.5% 32% 4 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 31% 3 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 31% 2 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 31% yesterday 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 30% today 69.5% 69.5% 30.5% 31% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
pMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 65.5%, Kalshi 64.0%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 34.5%, Kalshi 36.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 64% · Mike Rogers 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$349K64.5%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 63%/65%62.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+1.0ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$284K35.5%Kalshi1.8M contracts · 35%/37%40.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 64.5% 62% 35.5% 40% 6 days ago 64.5% 61% 35.5% 40% 5 days ago 64.5% 63% 35.5% 39% 4 days ago 64.5% 63% 35.5% 37% 3 days ago 64.5% 64% 35.5% 37% 2 days ago 64.5% 64% 35.5% 37% yesterday 65.5% 63% 34.5% 37% today 65.5% 64% 34.5% 36% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
wNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 69.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 30.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 70% · Dan Osborn 30%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$91.7K70.5%Kalshi285K contracts · 69%/70%70.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$27.1K29.5%Kalshi381K contracts · 29%/31%30.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 70.5% 70.0% 29.5% 30% 6 days ago 70.5% 70.0% 29.5% 31% 5 days ago 70.5% 70.0% 29.5% 29% 4 days ago 70.5% 70.0% 29.5% 30% 3 days ago 70.0% 70.0% 29.5% 31% 2 days ago 70.5% 69.0% 29.5% 30% yesterday 70.5% 70.0% 29.5% 31% today 70.5% 69.5% 29.5% 30% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
xNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) leads the unresolved Democratic primary; John E. Sununu (R) leads the unresolved Republican primary.
Neither nomination is official yet, though the market already treats both as decided — the Democratic side lost about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 83.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 16.5%, Kalshi 15.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 83% · John E. Sununu 16%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)*7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$60.1K86.5%Kalshi86.0K contracts · 83%/84%86.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-3.0ppJohn E. Sununu (R)*7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$27.3K14%Kalshi162K contracts · 15%/16%14%venue gap0.0pp7-day move+2.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago 86.5% 86.0% 14.0% 14.0% 6 days ago 86.5% 85.0% 14.5% 17.0% 5 days ago 85.5% 84.0% 14.5% 17.0% 4 days ago 84.5% 84.0% 14.5% 18.0% 3 days ago 84.5% 84.0% 16.0% 17.0% 2 days ago 83.5% 83.0% 16.5% 17.0% yesterday 83.5% 84.0% 16.5% 18.0% today 83.5% 83.5% 16.5% 15.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
uNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.4pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 91.50%, Kalshi 91.15%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.5%, Kalshi 8.7%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 91% · Michael Whatley 8.7%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$40.8K91.5%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 91%/91%91.8%venue gap0.3pp7-day move0.0ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$59.8K8.5%Kalshi463K contracts · 8.3%/9.1%8.4%venue gap0.1pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 91.5% 91.80% 8.5% 8.4% 6 days ago 91.5% 91.50% 8.5% 7.8% 5 days ago 91.5% 92.30% 9.0% 8.8% 4 days ago 91.5% 91.10% 9.0% 9.8% 3 days ago 92.0% 92.50% 8.0% 9.1% 2 days ago 91.5% 91.20% 8.0% 9.2% yesterday 91.5% 91.20% 8.5% 9.1% today 91.5% 91.15% 8.5% 8.7% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors11 of 12
zAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
Wilson holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: Begich is down about sixteen points.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 5.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 30.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.25%, Kalshi 0.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 5.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 34% · Tom Begich 0.7%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$169K35.5%Kalshi49.1K contracts · 29%/32%36.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppTom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$158K15%Kalshi228K contracts · 0.2%/0.3%18%venue gap3.0pp7-day move-14ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT. Day Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi 7 days ago 35.5% 36.0% 15.00% 18.00% 6 days ago 36.5% 35.0% 3.25% 14.00% 5 days ago 35.5% 36.0% 1.35% 1.00% 4 days ago 35.5% 37.0% 1.40% 0.10% 3 days ago 35.5% 36.0% 1.30% 1.00% 2 days ago 35.5% 30.0% 1.25% 0.10% yesterday 35.5% 33.0% 1.25% 0.30% today 35.5% 30.5% 1.25% 0.25% abArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.5%, Kalshi 87.0%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 14.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 87% · Andy Biggs 14%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.2K87.5%Kalshi305K contracts · 86%/88%88.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$36.2K12.5%Kalshi236K contracts · 13%/15%13.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 87.5% 88% 12.5% 13% 6 days ago 87.5% 88% 12.5% 14% 5 days ago 87.5% 89% 12.5% 14% 4 days ago 87.5% 88% 12.5% 14% 3 days ago 87.5% 88% 12.5% 15% 2 days ago 87.5% 88% 12.5% 15% yesterday 87.5% 88% 12.5% 14% today 87.5% 87% 12.5% 14% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
afFlorida governor
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 19.0%, Kalshi 18.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 81% · David Jolly 19%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$26.9K79.5%Kalshi478K contracts · 80%/81%82.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+2.0ppDavid Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.0K19%Kalshi258K contracts · 18%/19%19%venue gap0.0pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT. Day Byron Donalds · Polymarket Byron Donalds · Kalshi David Jolly · Polymarket David Jolly · Kalshi 7 days ago 79.5% 82.0% 19.0% 19.0% 6 days ago 79.5% 83.0% 19.0% 19.0% 5 days ago 80.5% 83.0% 18.5% 18.0% 4 days ago 81.0% 84.0% 19.5% 17.0% 3 days ago 81.0% 81.0% 19.5% 19.0% 2 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 19.5% 20.0% yesterday 81.5% 81.0% 19.0% 17.0% today 81.5% 80.5% 19.0% 18.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
sGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 60.0%, Kalshi 59.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 60% · Rick Jackson 40%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$32.5K59%Kalshi276K contracts · 59%/60%61%venue gap2.0pp7-day move+1.0ppRick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$37.6K40%Kalshi372K contracts · 40%/41%41%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT. Day Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi 7 days ago 59.0% 61.0% 40.0% 41.0% 6 days ago 59.0% 59.0% 40.0% 41.0% 5 days ago 59.0% 60.0% 39.5% 42.0% 4 days ago 59.0% 59.0% 39.0% 41.0% 3 days ago 59.0% 60.0% 39.0% 41.0% 2 days ago 60.5% 60.0% 38.0% 41.0% yesterday 60.0% 59.0% 38.5% 41.0% today 60.0% 59.5% 38.5% 40.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
yIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 76.5%, Kalshi 76.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 24.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 77% · Zach Lahn 26%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.1K74%Kalshi254K contracts · 76%/77%76%venue gap2.0pp7-day move+2.5ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$43.8K25.5%Kalshi288K contracts · 26%/27%26.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 74.0% 76.0% 25.5% 26.0% 6 days ago 74.5% 75.0% 25.5% 27.0% 5 days ago 74.5% 75.0% 25.5% 27.0% 4 days ago 74.5% 74.0% 25.5% 26.0% 3 days ago 75.5% 77.0% 24.5% 26.0% 2 days ago 75.5% 75.0% 24.5% 27.0% yesterday 76.5% 76.0% 24.5% 27.0% today 76.5% 76.5% 24.5% 26.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aaMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 91.5%, Kalshi 89.8%; John James (R): Polymarket 8.0%, Kalshi 10.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 90% · John James 9.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$48.4K91%Kalshi73.1K contracts · 87%/93%89%venue gap2.0pp7-day move+0.5ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$153K9%Kalshi126K contracts · 9.0%/12%12%venue gap3.0pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 91.0% 89.0% 9.0% 12.0% 6 days ago 91.5% 88.0% 8.5% 12.0% 5 days ago 91.0% 92.9% 8.5% 15.0% 4 days ago 90.5% 89.0% 8.0% 10.0% 3 days ago 92.0% 87.0% 8.0% 15.0% 2 days ago 92.0% 87.0% 8.0% 14.0% yesterday 91.5% 90.2% 8.0% 12.0% today 91.5% 89.8% 8.0% 10.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
tNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 57% · Aaron Ford 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$65.8K59.5%Kalshi236K contracts · 57%/58%61.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-2.0ppAaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$23.6K41%Kalshi482K contracts · 40%/41%—venue gap—7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT. Day Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi 7 days ago 59.5% 61.0% 41.0% — 6 days ago 59.5% 61.0% 41.0% 42.0% 5 days ago 59.5% 60.0% 41.0% 41.0% 4 days ago 59.5% 60.0% 41.0% 40.0% 3 days ago 60.5% 60.0% 40.0% 42.0% 2 days ago 57.0% 55.0% 40.5% 42.0% yesterday 57.5% 58.0% 40.5% 41.0% today 57.5% 57.5% 40.5% 40.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
adNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.3pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.5%, Kalshi 94.0%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 5.5%, Kalshi 6.8%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 94% · Bruce Blakeman 6.7%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$49.3K94.5%Kalshi276K contracts · 94%/94%94.6%venue gap0.1pp7-day move0.0ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$55.5K5.0%Kalshi718K contracts · 6.3%/7.3%6.4%venue gap1.4pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 94.5% 94.6% 5.0% 6.4% 6 days ago 94.5% 94.1% 5.0% 6.1% 5 days ago 94.5% 94.3% 5.0% 6.2% 4 days ago 94.5% 94.1% 5.0% 6.2% 3 days ago 94.5% 94.0% 5.5% 6.6% 2 days ago 94.5% 94.1% 5.5% 7.7% yesterday 94.5% 94.0% 5.5% 7.5% today 94.5% 94.0% 5.5% 6.8% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aePennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.7pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 95.5%, Kalshi 97.2%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.25%, Kalshi 3.35%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.7pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 4–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 97% · Stacy Garrity 3.2%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$7.5K95.5%Kalshi99.1K contracts · 97%/98%—venue gap—7-day move0.0ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$41.6K2.45%Kalshi391K contracts · 3.0%/3.7%—venue gap—7-day move-0.2ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 95.5% — 2.45% — 6 days ago 95.5% — 2.75% — 5 days ago 95.5% — 2.75% 2.90% 4 days ago 95.5% — 2.50% 4.90% 3 days ago 95.5% 96.0% 2.25% 4.90% 2 days ago 95.5% 97.7% 2.30% 4.30% yesterday 95.5% 96.7% 2.25% 4.30% today 95.5% 97.2% 2.25% 3.35% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
acTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead after the Democratic side gained about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.1pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 81.35%, Kalshi 83.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 18.0%, Kalshi 18.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.1pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 83% · Gina Hinojosa 18%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$39.4K83.6%Kalshi165K contracts · 83%/84%88.0%venue gap4.4pp7-day move-2.2ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$50.9K16.5%Kalshi611K contracts · 18%/19%13.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 83.60% 88.0% 16.5% 13.0% 6 days ago 82.60% 86.0% 17.5% 15.0% 5 days ago 82.35% 86.0% 18.5% 16.0% 4 days ago 83.05% 86.0% 16.0% 16.0% 3 days ago 78.75% 85.0% 17.5% 16.0% 2 days ago 81.55% 85.0% 19.0% 17.0% yesterday 81.35% 84.0% 18.0% 18.0% today 81.35% 83.5% 18.0% 18.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
rWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 79.0%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 80% · Tom Tiffany 20%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$278K80.5%Kalshi447K contracts · 78%/80%80.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$247K19.5%Kalshi466K contracts · 20%/21%21.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 80.5% 80% 19.5% 21.0% 6 days ago 80.5% 78% 19.5% 20.0% 5 days ago 80.5% 80% 19.5% 21.0% 4 days ago 80.5% 79% 19.5% 21.0% 3 days ago 81.5% 80% 19.5% 20.0% 2 days ago 81.5% 80% 19.5% 19.0% yesterday 81.5% 78% 19.5% 21.0% today 81.5% 79% 19.5% 20.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Also in elections1
jUSPS built Trump's mail-ballot portal in 3 months, and one mismatched scan can reject a whole batch
THE GUARDIAN: A federal judge halts Trump's USPS mail-ballot portal, which the agency built in 3 months
A whistleblower says USPS was given three months for work that normally takes about a year, and that the portal's scanners sample 15 to 400 envelopes per batch while allowing no failed matches. The administration is appealing the judge's order.
The numbers:
- Time USPS was given to build the portal: 3 months.
- Development time the whistleblower said the portal would normally need: about 1 year.
- Envelopes the scanners sample per batch, per the disclosure: 15 to 400, at a 0% permitted failure rate.
A whistleblower disclosure released by Richard Blumenthal (Sen-D Connecticut) says the system went out untested.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 2, 4:41 AM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
Not news news1 story
Ongoing2 earlier updates2 days
This story has run 3 times over 2 days, starting Aug 31.
- U.S.-led venture gets 25-year rights to 17 Venezuelan oil fields and access to 65 billion barrels
- UpdatePentagon takes a 35% stake in the venture given exclusive rights to 17 Venezuelan oil fields
- U.S. emergency oil reserve falls to 286.6 million barrels, its lowest since 1982, after releasing 128 million barrels during the Iran war — this issue
That is about 40% of the reserve's capacity, and Washington has promised allies another 44 million barrels to reach the 172 million it pledged.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve — the government's emergency stockpile of crude oil, stored in underground salt caverns along the Gulf Coast — fell to 286.6 million barrels in the week ending Friday, Aug. 28. That is its lowest level since 1982, and about 40% of what the caverns can hold. The reserve lost more than 3 million barrels in that single week. Since the war with Iran began, the United States has released roughly 128 million barrels of the 172 million it pledged to allies, pulling the stockpile down from 415.4 million barrels when the sales started in late February 2026. The releases are part of a coordinated international effort against what officials call a record supply disruption. Gasoline and crude prices have kept climbing through it.
What the emptier reserve can and cannot cover
- The reserve holds crude oil, not gasoline. Refineries have to process it first, so opening the caverns cannot fix a fuel shortage on its own.
- Pipelines from the reserve reach 24 Gulf Coast refineries but only six elsewhere (Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky). The coasts need ships.
- The four connected marine terminals can move 2.62 million barrels a day, about 60% of the reserve's advertised 4.4-million-barrel daily maximum.
- A 2014 test by the Energy Department's inspector general, the agency's internal auditor, found the reserve could sustain 4.25 million barrels a day rather than the 4.4 million design figure.
Related reading
More than a quarter of the reserve's oil was unavailable in December 2025, before this year's drawdown began, because of construction work and cavern outages, according to the Government Accountability Office, the audit agency that works for Congress.