CBS model: Democrats would win the House 229-206 if the election were held today
Most voters blame Trump's policies for grocery prices and the Iran war for gas prices.
The Democratic edge comes from opposition to Trump policies and a less motivated GOP base. Republicans who rate Trump's second term worse than his first are almost 20 points less likely to say they will definitely vote.
- Majority line is 218 seats; the model has Democrats at 229, 11 over.
- Democrats win 41% of non-college white voters to 59% for Republicans, per Ron Brownstein's read of the poll.
- Brownstein: that would be six points better on margin than in 2018 and the best House Democratic showing since 2006-08.