Political Guyentist
← 2026-10-0510brief

[UPDATE] Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in Brazil's first-round presidential vote count; Oct. 25 runoff likely

The final Datafolha poll had Lula ahead 42%-38%.

Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, led Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (President, Brazil), 80, as first-round ballots from Sunday, Oct. 4, were counted. If no candidate wins an outright majority, the two face a runoff on Oct. 25.

PREVIOUSLY

Heading into the Oct. 4 first round, polls showed incumbent Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a close race for Brazil's presidency.

Why it matters beyond Brazil:

  • A Bolsonaro win would extend a run of Trump-aligned victories in Colombia, Chile and Peru.
  • In 2025 Trump put a 50% tariff on Brazil and explicitly tied it to Jair Bolsonaro's trial.
  • Strategist Roberto Reis told Fox News that Datafolha underestimated Jair Bolsonaro's 2018 runoff number by 7%.